Expert That Correctly Predicted Market Moves In July, August And September Says Stocks Will Crash In November

Dollars Folded - Public DomainWhen someone is right over and over and over, eventually people start paying attention.  Personally, I have learned to tune out the “forecasts” of most “economic experts” out there.  As an attorney, I was trained to be skeptical, and I have found that most forecasts about what the financial markets are going to do are not worth the paper they are printed on.  However, once in a while something comes along that really gets my attention.  Over the past few days, I have seen a number of references to the remarkable forecasts of Bo Polny of Gold 2020 Forecast.  In recent months he has correctly predicted that U.S. stocks would begin to drop in July, that there would be a huge plunge in August and that that the month of September would be rather uneventful.  Now he is saying that he expects “November to be a complete meltdown on the U.S. and world markets”.  Just because he has been right in the past does not guarantee that he will be correct this time around, but lots of people (like me) are starting to pay attention.

So how does Polny come to his conclusions?  Well, he uses something that most of us hated when we were in school – mathematics.  The following comes from the Daily Sheeple

Cyclical analyst Bo Polny of Gold 2020 Forecast utilizes advanced mathematical formulas and years of cyclical analysis to make forecasts about global stock markets. In late July he noted that U.S. stock markets had hit a top and that investors should prepare for a rapid down-move in the Dow Jones and other indexes. As we now know, that prediction has come to pass.

But while many on Wall Street panicked, Polny noted that the crash was not yet imminent and that the month of September would be relatively calm, with no major moves up or down forecast to occur. Once again, his analysis proved accurate.

I want to stress that I do not know if he will be right this time around.  When trying to forecast the future of the markets, there are thousands of moving pieces, and many of them cannot be accounted for easily.  But without a doubt the markets are perfectly primed for a major crash, so it would not surprise me in the least if he did turn out to be correct.

And as I mentioned above, Polny does have a solid track record of accuracy

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Bo’s model appears to have an impressive track record of accurate predictions, including the following:

  • Price of gold reaching $1900 in 2011
  • China’s stock market peak in April 2015
  • Hong Kong market peak on April 29 2015
  • U.S. stock market drop beginning in July 2015
  • Sharp drop in the stop market in August 2015
  • U.S. stock market uneventful in September 2015

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If Polny is right again this time, next month will be the most significant month for global financial markets since the crash of 2008.  Here is more from Z3News

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In an interview with Future Money Trends on October 17 2015, he made the following comments:

“Now we are expecting the next leg down on the U.S. and world markets on the dollar. What we are forecasting now is the lows of August are all going to break. They could break in the month of October yet, but we believe they will break no problem into November. We expect November to be a complete meltdown on the U.S. and world markets.”

He also posted the following statements on his website:

“If you thought the crash of August 2015 was bad; November 2015 is expected to usher in the START of the US Stock, Dollar, and Treasuries Market MELTDOWN!!!

“The end of this year ushers in the start of an Economic Meltdown that is to last years! The U.S. Dollar, Treasuries, and Stock Market bomb is set to blow in November 2015!”

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Polny is projecting that stocks could ultimately fall by as much as 70 percent by the time it is all said and done.  You can watch a full interview where he discusses these things right here.

Meanwhile, early signs of the kind of trouble that Polny is warning about continue to pop up.

On Wednesday, the stock price of one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world absolutely crashed after a report came out claiming that it was in danger of suffering the same fate as Enron

Hedge fund darling Valeant Pharmaceuticals is getting hammered after short-selling-firm Citron Research published a report comparing it to Enron.

The Canadian drug company’s stock was last down about 25% at around $110. It had fallen as low as $88.50.

The stock has been popular among hedge funds.

It ranked No. 10 on Goldman Sachs’ stocks that “matter most” to hedge funds list for the second quarter. According to Goldman, 32 funds had the stock as one of their top-10 stock holdings.

And this week we learned that construction machinery giant Caterpillar has now reported global sales declines for 34 consecutive months.  The following comes from Zero Hedge

Most cats bounce at least once when they die, but not this one: after CAT posted its first annual drop in retail sales in December of 2012, it has failed to see a rise in retail sales even once.

In fact, since then Caterpillar has seen 34 consecutive months of declining global sales, and 11 consecutive months of double digit declines!

Those that assume that everything is going to be “just fine” now that we have gotten past September are going to be dead wrong.

Whether it happens in November or not, the kind of chaotic financial collapse that Bo Polny is warning about will happen.

And of course factors that he is unable to account for such as war, terror attacks and major natural disasters could greatly accelerate things.

Once again, I don’t know if everything that Bo Polny is saying is going to turn out to be 100% accurate or not.  I am just reporting what he is saying.  But it is true that what he is forecasting fits very well with what I have been warning my readers about for months and months.

A day of reckoning is most definitely coming for global financial markets.

Will it happen in November?

Stay tuned…

Gerald Celente Is Predicting That A Stock Market Crash Will Happen By The End Of 2015

New York Stock Exchange - Public DomainGerald Celente of the Trends Research Institute has just gone on the record with a prediction that there will be a stock market crash by the end of this calendar year.  If you are not familiar with Gerald Celente, he is one of the most highly respected trends forecasters in the entire world.  He has been featured on CNN, The Oprah Winfrey Show, The Today Show, Good Morning America, CBS Morning News, NBC Nightly News and Coast to Coast AM.  Personally, I have a lot of respect for him.  While it is true that not every single one of his forecasts about the future came to pass over the years, he does have a very solid track record that goes back for decades.  He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash, the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the financial panic of 2008.  Just a couple of days ago, he told Eric King the following: “I’m now predicting that we are going to see a global stock market crash before the end of the year.”  Celente says that it won’t just be U.S. stocks either.  He believes that crashes are also coming to “the DAX, the FTSE, the CAC, Shanghai, and the Nikkei”.  It other words, it is going to be a truly global financial crisis and he says that there is “going to be panic on the streets from Wall Street to Shanghai and from the UK down to Brazil”.

When you go out on a limb like this, you are putting your credibility on the line.  This is something that Celente has only done a few times in the past, and normally he has been spot on

Rarely do I ever put a date on market crashes. I did it in 1987 when I forecast the 1987 stock market crash — that was in the Wall Street Journal. I also forecast the ‘Panic of 2008,’ and the ‘dot-com bust’ in October of 1999, when I said it (the dot-com mania) would fail in the second quarter of 2000…

Of course Celente is far from alone.  Many others have also been warning that a new financial crisis is imminent.

For instance, just check out what David Stockman recently told CNBC

David Stockman has long warned that the stock market is on the verge of a massive collapse, and the recent price action has him even more convinced than ever that the bottom is about to fall out.

I think it’s pretty obvious that the top is in,” the Reagan administration’s OMB director said Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” The S&P 500 has traded in a historically narrow range for the better part of 2015, having moved just 1 percent higher year to date. “It’s just waiting for the knee-jerk bulls, robo traders and dip buyers to finally capitulate.”

Stockman, whose past claims have yet to come to fruition, still believes that the excessive monetary policy from central banks around the world has created a “debt supernova,” and all the signs point to “the end of the central bank enabled bubble,” which could cause a worldwide recession.

Just a few days ago, I authored an article entitled “8 Financial Experts That Are Warning That A Great Financial Crisis Is Imminent” which showed that a whole bunch of other financial experts are sounding the alarm about an implosion of the financial markets.

And before any of these warnings came out, I issued my “red alert” for the last six months of 2015 back on June 25th.

There is a growing consensus that something really, really bad is about to happen in the very near future.

You know that we are really late in the game when the mainstream media starts sounding exactly like The Economic Collapse Blog.

On July 22nd, I authored a piece entitled “Commodities Collapsed Just Before The Last Stock Market Crash – So Guess What Is Happening Right Now?

Now compare that headline to this recent one from Bloomberg: “Commodities Are Crashing Like It’s 2008 All Over Again“.

The mainstream media is starting to get it.  The exact same patterns that we witnessed just prior to the last financial crisis are playing out once again right before our very eyes.  Here is an excerpt from that Bloomberg article

Attention commodities investors: Welcome back to 2008!

The meltdown has pushed as many commodities into bear markets as there were in the month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which spurred the worst financial crisis seven years ago since the Great Depression.

Eighteen of the 22 components in the Bloomberg Commodity Index have dropped at least 20 percent from recent closing highs, meeting the common definition of a bear market. That’s the same number as at the end of October 2008, when deepening financial turmoil sent global markets into a swoon.

This is the kind of stuff that I have been hammering on for weeks.

Another sign that we saw back in 2008 that is repeating once again is a substantial slowdown in global trade.  Over the weekend, we got some more bad news on this front from China.  The following comes from Zero Hedge

Overnight we got another acute reminder of just who is lying hunched over, comatose in the driver’s seat of global commerce: the country whose July exports just crashed by 8.3% Y/Y (and down 3.6% from the month before) far greater than the consensus estimate of only a 1.5% drop, and the biggest drop in four months following the modest June rebound by 2.8%: China.

China Exports YoY - Zero Hedge

It wasn’t just exports, imports tumbled as well by 8.1%, fractionally worse than the -8.0% consensus, and down from the -6.1% in June as China’s commodity tolling operations are suddenly mothballed.

The crisis that so many have been waiting for is here.

As the coming weeks and months play out, there will be good days and there will be bad days.  Remember, some of the biggest one day gains in U.S. stock market history happened right in the middle of the financial crisis of 2008.  So don’t get fooled by what happens on any one particular day.

Also, please do not think that this crisis will be “over” by the end of 2015.  What we are moving into is just the start of the crisis.  Things will continue to unravel as we move into 2016 and beyond.  The recession that we experienced back in 2008 and 2009 will seem like a Sunday picnic compared to what is coming by the time that everything is all said and done.

So that is why I work so hard to encourage people to get prepared.

What we are facing is not going to last for weeks or for months.

The coming crisis is going to last for years, and it is going to be painful beyond what most people would dare to imagine.

If Everything Is Just Fine, Why Are So Many Really Smart People Forecasting Economic Disaster?

Apocalyptic Disaster - Public DomainThe parallels between the false prosperity of 2007 and the false prosperity of 2014 are rather striking.  If we go back and look at the numbers in the fall of 2007, we find that the Dow set an all-time high in October, margin debt on Wall Street had spiked to record levels, the unemployment rate was below 5 percent and Americans were getting ready to spend a record amount of money that Christmas season.  But then the very next year the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression shook the entire planet and everyone wondered why most people never saw it coming.  Well, now a similar pattern is unfolding right before our eyes.  The Dow and the S&P 500 both hit record highs on Monday, margin debt on Wall Street is hovering near record levels, the unemployment rate has ticked down a little bit and Americans are getting ready to spend more than 600 billion dollars this Christmas season.  The truth is that the economy seems pretty stable for the moment, and most people cannot even imagine that an economic collapse is coming.  So why are so many really smart people forecasting economic disaster in the near future?

For example, just consider what the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center is saying.  This is an organization with a tremendous economic forecasting record that goes all the way back to the Great Depression.  In fact, it predicted ahead of time the financial trouble and the recession that would happen in 2008.  Well, now this company is forecasting that there is a 65 percent chance that there will be a global recession by the end of next year…

In 1929, a businessman and economist by the name of Jerome Levy didn’t like what he saw in his analysis of corporate profits. He sold his stocks before the October crash.

Almost eight decades later, the consultancy company that bears his name declared “the next recession will be caused by the deflating housing bubble.” By February 2007, it predicted problems in the subprime-mortgage market would spread “to virtually all financial markets.” In October 2007, it saw imminent recession — the slump began two months later.

The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, based in Mount Kisco, New York, and run by Jerome’s grandson David, is again more worried than its peers. Its half-dozen analysts attach a 65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. by the end of next year.

Could they be wrong?

It’s certainly possible.

But I wouldn’t bet against them.

John Hussman is another expert that is warning of financial disaster on the horizon.  He believes that we are experiencing a massive stock market bubble right now and that stocks are approximately double the value that they should be

If you look at corporate profits and especially corporate profit margins, they’re one of the most cyclical and mean-reverting series in economics. Right now, we have corporate profits that are close to about 11% of GDP, but if you look at that series you will find that corporate profits as a share of GDP have always dropped back to about 5.5% or below in every single economic cycle including recent decades, including not only the financial crisis but 2002 and every other economic cycle we have been in.

Right now stocks as a multiple of last year’s expected earnings may look only modestly over valued or modestly richly valued. Really if you look at the measures of valuation that are most correlated to the returns that stocks deliver over time say over seven years or over the next 10 years the S&P 500 in our estimation is about double the level of valuation that would give investors a normal rate of return.

Could you imagine the chaos that would ensue if stocks really did drop by 50 percent?

Well, Hussman says that this is precisely what must happen in order for stock prices to return to historical norms…

Right now, like I say, we are looking at stocks that have been pressed to long-term expected returns that are really dismal. But more important than that, in every market cycle that we’ve seen with the mild exception of 2002, we’ve seen stocks price revert back to normal rates of return. In order to get to that point from here, we would have to have equities drop by about half.

If that does happen, it will make the crisis of 2008 look like a Sunday picnic.

Meanwhile, other very prominent thinkers are also warning that an economic nightmare is rapidly approaching.

Economic cycle theorist Martin Armstrong foresees major economic problems in 2015 which will ultimately lead to “civil unrest”  in 2016

It looks more and more like a serious political uprising will erupt by 2016 once the economy turns down. That is the magic ingredient. Turn the economy down and you get civil unrest and revolution.

And of course there are a whole lot of other economic cycle theorists that are forecasting that we are about to experience a massive economic downturn as well.  For much more on this, please see this article and this article.

What is truly frightening is that we have never even come close to recovering from the last economic crisis.  One poll that was taken just prior to the recent election found that only 28 percent of Americans said that their families were doing better financially.  In addition, here are some more survey numbers about how Americans are feeling about the economy

According to voter exit polls conducted by CNN, 78% said they are worried about the economy, with 69% saying that, in their view, economic conditions are not good. 65% responded that the country is on the wrong track vs. only 31% who believed that it is headed in the right direction.

Even though we are repeating so many of the same patterns that we experienced back in 2007, we are doing so with a fundamentally weaker economy.  The last crisis did a tremendous amount of permanent damage to us.  For an extensive look at this, please see my previous article entitled “12 Charts That Show The Permanent Damage That Has Been Done To The U.S. Economy“.

And there are lots of signs that much of the planet is already entering another major economic slowdown.  In a recent article, Brandon Smith summarized some of these.  He says that we are currently witnessing “the last gasp of the global economy“…

Global exports, and thus consumer demand, are plunging. Germany, the only pillar left to prop up the failing European Union, has experienced a severe decline in exports not seen since 2009.

China, the largest exporter and importer in the world, and Chinese companies, have been caught in a number of instances using fraudulent invoices to artificially inflate their own export numbers, in some cases reporting 50% more exported goods than had actually existed.

China’s manufacturing has also declined for the past five months, exposing the nature of its inflated export stats and indicating a global slowdown.

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of global shipping rates for raw goods, and thus a measure of demand for shipping, continues to drag along near historic lows.

The U.S. consumer (the only economic asset the U.S. has besides the dollar’s world reserve status), has seen declines in spending as well as wages.

In the meantime, long term jobless Americans continue to fall off welfare rolls by the millions, making unemployment numbers look good, but the overall future picture look terrible as participation rates dissolve into the ether of government statistics.

How is such poverty being hidden? Foodstamps. Plain and simple. Nearly 50 million Americans now subsist on food stamp programs today, and this number shows no signs of dropping. In states like Illinois, two people sign up for food assistance for every citizen that happens to find a job.

From time to time, I get accused of “spreading fear” and of being obsessed with “doom and gloom”.

But that is not the case at all.

I actually want our economy to stay stable for as long as possible.  Many Americans don’t realize this, but even the poorest of us live in luxury compared to much of the rest of the world.  It would be wonderful if we could all live out our lives in peace and quiet and safety.

Unfortunately, it is simply not going to happen.

And it does not take an expert to see what is coming.

Anyone with half a brain should be able to see the economic disaster that is approaching.

There is hope in understanding what is happening and there is hope in getting prepared.  Millions of Americans that are willingly blind to our problems are going to have their lives absolutely destroyed when they get blindsided by the coming crisis.  So please use this brief period of relative stability to get prepared and to warn others.

Once this false bubble of hope runs out, all of our lives are going to dramatically change.

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