Housing Crash 2.0? Experts Warn That ‘The U.S. Housing Market Looks Headed For Its Worst Slowdown In Years’

Is the United States heading for another absolutely devastating housing crash?  It has been 10 years since the last one, and so many of the exact same signs that immediately preceded the last one are starting to appear once again.  Back in 2007, home prices were absolutely soaring and it seemed like the party would never end.  But interest rates went up, home sales slowed down substantially, and eventually prices began to crash.  Millions upon millions of Americans were suddenly “underwater” in their homes just as a crippling recession hit the economy, and we plunged into a foreclosure crisis unlike anything that we had ever seen before.  Well, now the cycle is happening again.  Home prices surged to unprecedented heights in 2017, and this was especially true in the hottest markets on the east and west coasts.  But now interest rates are going up and home sales are starting to slow down substantially.  We certainly aren’t too far away from the next crash and another horrible foreclosure crisis, and many experts are beginning to sound the alarm.

For example, the following very alarming numbers come from a recent Bloomberg article entitled “The U.S. Housing Market Looks Headed for Its Worst Slowdown in Years”

Existing-home sales dropped in June for a third straight month. Purchases of new homes are at their slowest pace in eight months. Inventory, which plunged for years, has begun to grow again as buyers move to the sidelines, sapping the fuel for surging home values. Prices for existing homes climbed 6.4 percent in May, the smallest year-over-year gain since early 2017, and have gained the least over three months since 2012, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Those are definitely troubling figures, but perhaps even more disturbing is the fact that mortgage applications are way down right now

Mortgage applications to purchase both new and existing homes have been falling steadily, and mortgage rates are rising again. Single-family home construction also fell and was lower than June 2017.

Of course economic numbers always go up and down, and just because we have had a few bad months does not necessarily mean that disaster is looming.

But when you step back and take a broader perspective on the housing market, it really does start to feel like early 2008 all over again.

In fact, Nobel Prize-winning author Robert Shiller says that this “could be the very beginning of a turning point”

“This could be the very beginning of a turning point,” said Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist who is famed for warning of the dot-com and housing bubbles, in an interview.

Just like last time, the slowdown is being felt the most in the markets that were once the hottest.  In southern California, home sales just fell to the lowest level in four years

Southern California home sales hit the brakes in June, falling to the lowest reading for the month in four years. Sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums dropped 11.8 percent year over year, as prices shot up to a record high, according to CoreLogic. The report covers Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties.

And as I explained in a previous article, much of this drop is being fueled by a record decline in foreigners buying U.S. homes.

Meanwhile, red flags are popping up on the east coast as well.  New York foreclosure actions have skyrocketed to an 11 year high, and many analysts expect them to go much higher.

If you follow my economics website on a regular basis, then you already know that I have been warning about a downturn in the housing market for months.  As the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, it was only a matter of time before the housing market really cooled off.  And if the Federal Reserve keeps raising rates, we are going to see home prices collapse, another massive foreclosure crisis, and enormous stress on our largest financial institutions.

This is one of the reasons why we must abolish the Federal Reserve.  By allowing a panel of central planners to determine our interest rates, it is inevitable that artificial “booms” and “busts” are created.

Yes, there are always “booms” and “busts” in a free market economy as well, but they would not be as severe.

In recent months, central banks all over the world have been tightening, and other global real estate markets are really starting to feel the pain as well.  For instance, home prices are really cooling off in Canada, and it appears that they are on the precipice of a full-blown market crash.

When a new recession didn’t hit in 2015 or 2016, a lot of Americans assumed that the threat had passed.  But just because a threat is delayed does not mean that it has been diminished.  In fact, the coming recession is probably going to be substantially worse than it would have been in 2015 or 2016 because of the central bank manipulation that delayed it until this time.

And the signs are all around us.  An indicator that tracks the vehicle buying plans of Americans just plunged to the lowest level in five years, and even USA Today is running articles with titles such as “Are you ready for the next recession? How to prepare now for a potential downturn”.

Yes, we just got good GDP data for the second quarter, but virtually everyone agrees that the number for the third quarter will be significantly lower.  And it would be foolish to ignore all of the harbingers that are emerging on an almost daily basis now.  Just recently, I explained that the U.S. economy has fallen into recession every single time that the yield curve has inverted since World War II, and now it is about to happen again.  We live at a time when there is great turmoil at home and abroad, and the elements for a “perfect storm” are definitely coming together.

It is only a matter of time before the next recession begins, and it looks like it could be a really, really bad one.

Michael Snyder is a nationally syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is publisher of The Most Important News and the author of four books including The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters.

15 Reasons Why Barack Obama’s Declaration That “A Second Depression Is No Longer A Possibility” Is Dead Wrong

Is the United States economy headed for another Great Depression?  Well, according to Barack Obama, that is no longer possible.  According to Obama, the United States has avoided an economic collapse and is headed for another wonderful era of growth and prosperity.  But is Obama right?  Do the economic signs indicate that the U.S. is headed towards recovery or towards even more difficult times?  As you shall see below, there is no way in the world that Barack Obama should have ever said that “a second depression is no longer a possibility”.  In fact, as the U.S. financial system continues to crumble, it is likely that those words will be exploited by his political adversaries again and again.  If you are a politician and you are going to issue a guarantee, you had better be able to deliver the goods.  In this case, Obama is making a promise that defies all of the economic data.

Video of Obama making his declaration that “a second depression is no longer a possibility” is posted below….      

So why is Obama wrong?  Well, if you want a full examination of why the United States is headed for an economic collapse, please read the rest of this blog.  In this article we just wanted to highlight a few of the reasons why the U.S. is headed for a complete financial meltdown….

#1) The U.S. housing market is continuing to come apart like a 20 dollar suit.  The U.S. government just announced that in January sales of new homes plunged to the lowest level on record.  This is not a sign that the U.S. economy is recovering.

#2) In fact, a lot more houses may be on the market soon.  The number of U.S. mortgages more than 90 days overdue has climbed to 5.1 percent.  An increasing number of Americans find themselves simply unable to keep up with their mortgages.  This is another indication that things are getting worse instead of better.

#3) Over 24% of all homes with mortgages in the United States were underwater as of the end of 2009.  So in other words, nearly one out of every four U.S. homeowners with a mortgage owe more on their homes than the homes are worth.  That is a giant mess, and it is going to be very painful to untangle it.

#4) If all of that wasn’t bad enough, a massive “second wave” of adjustable rate mortgages is scheduled to reset beginning in 2010.  The “first wave” of mortgage resets from 2006 – 2008 absolutely crippled the U.S. housing market, and this second wave threatens to make things far worse.

#5) Confidence among U.S. consumers fell dramatically in February to the lowest level in 10 months.  Consumers that are not confident in the economy tend to hold on to their money.  If consumers don’t spend their money then the economy is not going to grow.

#6) Many analysts are predicting that the next “shoe to fall” in the ongoing financial crisis will be commercial real estate.  U.S. commercial property values are down approximately 40 percent since 2007 and currently 18 percent of all office space in the United States is sitting vacant. 

#7) In fact, the commercial real estate sector is just now entering the danger zone.  It is projected that the largest commercial real estate loan losses will be experienced in 2011 and the years following.  Some analysts are estimating that losses from commercial real estate at U.S. banks alone could range as high as 200 to 300 billion dollars.  To get an idea of how rapidly commercial real estate loans are turning sour, just check out the chart below….

#8) All of these bad loans are causing banks to dramatically slow down real estate lending.  During the middle of the decade, the number of commercial real estate loans exploded, but now the bubble has burst, and as the chart below reveals, commercial real estate lending has dropped through the floor….

#9) All of these real estate problems are decimating America’s small and mid-size banks.  The FDIC has announced that the number of banks on its “problem” list climbed to 702 at the end of 2009.  This is compared to only 552 banks that were on the problem list at the end of September and only 252 banks that were on the problem list at the end of 2008.  As you can see from these figures, the banking crisis in the U.S. is escalating rapidly.

#10) The U.S. national debt is now over 12 trillion dollars and it is rising at a rate of about 3.8 billion dollars per day.  In fact, some analysts are projecting that the United States will borrow more money in 2010 than the rest of the governments of the world combined.

#11) The financial mess in the U.S. is scaring off other nations from buying U.S. government debt.  In fact, the Federal Reserve now has to “buy” most U.S. government debt because others are extremely hesitant to purchase the massive amount of bad paper the U.S. is trying to sell.  In addition, other countries are now using the massive amounts of U.S. government debt that they already hold as leverage.  A major U.K. newspaper is warning that evidence is mounting that recent Chinese sales of U.S. Treasury bonds are intended as a warning to the United States government rather than simply being part of a routine portfolio shift.

#12) But the U.S. is not the only economy that is suffering during this economic downturn.  The entire world economy has been impacted.  The World Trade Organization has announced that world trade fell by 12% last year as the world economic crisis caused the biggest drop in world trade since 1945.

#13) The United States should not expect the rest of the world to pick up the economic slack either.  The crisis in Greece has made headlines all over the globe recently, and Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff is warning that we could soon see a huge wave of sovereign defaults.

#14) The reality is that things are so bad in some parts of Europe that it could take years and years to recover.  In fact, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund is warning that financial “belt-tightening” in Europe will be “extremely painful” and could take up to 20 years.  The truth is that if Europe is suffering economically, it will be very difficult for the U.S. to recover at the same time.

#15) In addition, some of the most prominent investors in the world know what is coming and are issuing their own warnings.  For example, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s long-time business partner, has warned in a new article for Slate.com that “it’s basically over” for the U.S. economy.  Marc Faber is warning that things are going to get so bad that it is time for investors to buy farmland and gold.

But apparently Barack Obama knows better. 

Apparently Barack Obama can guarantee that it is impossible for the United States to go into another depression.

Do you believe him?

Goldman Sachs Admits To Engaging In “Improper Behavior” During The Housing Crash – But They Aren’t About To Give The Money Back

Goldman Sachs Wall StreetIn an absolutely stunning admission, the CEO of Goldman Sachs acknowledged on Wednesday that the investment bank engaged in “improper” behavior during 2006 and 2007.  This improper behavior included making huge bets against the housing market while at the same time peddling more than $40 billion in securities backed by risky U.S. home loans.

The CEO of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, made this stunning admission during the opening hearing of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.  The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission is a 10 member panel that Congress created to investigate the causes of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The chairperson of this commission, Phil Angelides, warned Blankfein that he would be “brutally honest” during his questioning.  He directly confronted Blankfein about Goldman’s behavior during the housing crash.  In particular, he pressed Blankfein about whether it was proper or not for Goldman Sachs to make huge bets against the housing market when they were peddling tens of billions of dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities at the same time.  In response to the questioning by Angelides, Blankfein made the following statement….

“I do think the behavior is improper, and we regret . . . the consequence that people have lost money in it.”

Lost money?

The truth is that tens of billions of dollars were lost.  In fact, the garbage that Goldman sold them has some state governments on the verge of bankruptcy.

But Goldman came out of the housing crash smelling like a rose.  In fact, they made tens of billions of dollars in 2009.

So will this commission get to the bottom of this mess?

Not likely, but at least Angelides was willing to ask some of the tough questions.

You can see a large portion of the confrontation between Blankfein and Angelides below….

Meanwhile, the U.S. government continues to deal with the horrific aftermath of the housing crisis.  The U.S. government just posted its largest December budget deficit on record (91.9 billion dollars) as higher unemployment reduced revenue and the government spent large amounts of money to help the U.S. economy recover.

A 91 billion dollar deficit in a single month?

What kind of madness is this?

We are dumping a massive debt on to our children and grandchildren that they will never, ever be able to repay.

In fact, a two year study by the 24 member Committee on the Fiscal Future of the United States says that the United States must soon either raise taxes or cut government spending to curb its debt.

But either action would have devastating effects on the U.S. economy.

However, if the U.S. government keeps piling up debt at the current rate it is absolutely going to destroy the financial system of the United States.

The truth is that the U.S. government is between a rock and a hard place.

If it raises taxes or cuts spending it will seriously hurt the economy, but if the government continues to rack up debt at this pace the consequences will be catastrophic.

The truth is that hard choices need to be made and that there is going to be economic pain no matter what is decided.

In fact, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue is warning that the U.S. faces a double-dip recession because of the new taxes and the new regulations under consideration by Barack Obama and the Democratic Congress.

While some in the mainstream media talk hopefully of “recovery”, the truth is that things continue to get worse for the U.S. economy.

Millions of Americans have lost their jobs and are now stuck in a cycle of hopelessness.  In fact, some analysts now believe that the true unemployment rate in the United States is close to 22 percent.

All of this unemployment means that millions of Americans cannot pay their mortgages.  Almost 3 million U.S. homeowners received at least one foreclosure filing during 2009 which set a new all-time record.

However, things are going to get even worse for the housing market when the next wave of adjustable mortgages start resetting in 2010.  A massive wave of adjustable mortgages is scheduled to reset between 2010 and 2012, and the reality is that there is simply no way that another huge wave of mortgage defaults is going to be able to be avoided.

Things have gotten so bad that a record number of American citizens are turning to the U.S. government for assistance.  The number of Americans enrolled in the food stamp program has set a record for the ninth month in a row.

So is there any end to this economic misery?

Are things going to get even worse?

Well, not for the folks over at Goldman Sachs.  Total bonuses for executives at Goldman Sachs for 2009 are expected to be somewhere around 20 billion dollars.

You see, being a bankster is quite profitable these days – even if it did take a little “improper behavior” to get it done.