Why President Trump should have a huge lead on the night of the election

Does that headline surprise you?  In this article, I am not predicting the eventual outcome of the presidential election.  Rather, I am going to discuss what is likely to happen based on which votes will be counted first.  Normally, Americans gather around their televisions on the evening of the election to watch the votes come in and the mainstream media declares a winner by the end of the night.  But it won’t be that way this time around.  More than 52 million Americans have already voted by mail in this election, and that number will keep rising with each passing day.  It is going to take extra time to count all of those mail-in ballots, and that is going to cause significant delays in getting final election results from many states. (Read More...)

Has the post-election stock market crash already begun?

Is this rush for the exits going to turn into a stampede?  Stock prices have been plummeting in recent days, and most of the talking heads on television have been blaming the declines on the COVID-19 pandemic.  Yes, it is true that the number of confirmed cases in the United States is spiking again, but I don’t think that alone is enough to account for what we have been witnessing.  Instead, I believe that the primary reason why stocks have been tumbling is because there is so much uncertainty about what is going to take place next week.  Investors hate uncertainty, and it appears that many of them would prefer to be on the sidelines rather than gamble on the outcome of this election. (Read More...)

How long will it take to count all the votes?

For months the American people have been told that we may not know the winner of the presidential election right away like we normally do.  So if we aren’t going to have a winner on November 3rd, when will we finally have a clear result?  Well, that is going to depend on how long it takes to count the votes, and that is going to be different for each state.  I know that is a frustrating answer, but every one of our 50 states has different election laws, and things have been greatly complicated in 2020 by the fact that so many people will be voting by mail.  So far, more than 46 million Americans have already voted by mail, and that number just keeps growing with each passing day.  Some states allow mail-in ballots to be counted before Election Day, but a majority of states do not(Read More...)

If the polls are EXACTLY as flawed as they were in 2016, this election will come right down to the wire

Do you think that you know who will win the election?  Well, forecasting who will win elections is what the folks over at Fivethirtyeight do for a living, and in 2016 they told us on Election Day that Hillary Clinton had a 67 percent chance of winning.  Needless to say, they were widely mocked when Trump was victorious, but that didn’t stop them.  Today, Fivethirtyeight is projecting that Joe Biden has an 87 percent chance of winning this election, and that is a number that has stayed fairly stable in recent weeks.  But of course their projections are primarily based on the same state polls that were deeply flawed in 2016, and so there is a very real possibility that they will be embarrassed once again in 2020. (Read More...)

Are we going to witness the worst national emotional meltdown in U.S. history once this election is over?

Right now we are experiencing the calm before the storm.  Many Biden supporters believe that a Trump victory would literally be the worst thing that could possibly happen to our country, but at the moment most of them are quite confident that Biden will win.  Likewise, many Trump supporters are absolutely convinced that we will plunge into a horrifying socialist abyss if Biden wins, but for now most of them are convinced that the polls are wrong and that Trump will pull out another victory in November.  So with just a little over a week until Election Day, most Americans that really care about politics are pacified because they believe that a positive outcome is right around the corner. (Read More...)

So Donald Trump just got Joe Biden to admit that he wants to ban the entire U.S. oil industry…

Can you imagine how Joe Biden’s campaign team must be feeling right now?  They have been working night and day for months to put their candidate in a position to win the election, and he has been leading in most national polls.  Over the last several days they spent many hours carefully rehearsing every potential question, and they just needed Joe to get through one last debate without making some sort of colossal game-changing mistake. (Read More...)

Trump could lose the popular vote by 6 million and still win the Electoral College

Did you know that the Republican candidate for president has lost the popular vote every single time since 1988 with just one exception?  That exception was in 2004 when George W. Bush beat John Kerry.  Other than that one time, Democrats have been winning the popular vote in election after election.  In 2016, Hillary Clinton received nearly 3 million more votes than Donald Trump, and yet Trump won the election because of how the Electoral College works.  So as we analyze this election, focusing on national polling numbers is not necessarily going to tell us who is going to win.  Instead, we need to focus on the swing states, because getting to 270 electoral votes is how you win a presidential election. (Read More...)

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