How Can Anyone Claim That The Housing Crisis Is Over When The Delinquency Rate On U.S. Mortgages Continues To Explode At An Exponential Rate?

By Michael Snyder, on March 15th, 2010

Housing prices have stabilized and are actually slightly increasing in some areas. The tax breaks passed by Congress have encouraged more first-time home buyers to get into the market. So is the U.S. housing crisis over? Will the real estate market be back to normal in no time? Well, if you listen to many of the talking heads on the news channels, you might be tempted to think that the worst of the housing crisis is behind us and that we are headed towards recovery. But that is not what is happening. The truth is that we are just now getting ready for round 2 of the real estate nightmare.

Where is the evidence to back that assertion up? Well, just consider the chart below. The delinquency rate on U.S. residential mortgages continues to explode at an exponential rate….

Please note that the rate of mortgage delinquencies is now much, much higher than it was when the housing market was crashing so hard in 2007 and 2008. More people than ever are falling seriously behind on their mortgages, and that means that more homes than ever are in danger of being foreclosed.

Now it is true that there are some signs that the rate of serious mortgage delinquencies is starting to stabilize, but the reality is that we will experience only a momentary pause.

Why?

A massive second wave of adjustable rate mortgages is scheduled to reset beginning this year, and if it goes anything like the “first wave” did, the results could be absolutely catastrophic for the U.S. economy. Just check out the chart below….

This coming second wave could result in another huge mountain of foreclosures being forced on to the market.

So is the housing crisis over?

No.

Not even close.

Unless something really dramatic happens, the U.S. housing market is going to experience pain so intense that it is hard to even imagine. Millions more Americans could lose their homes and scores of banks could end up being shut down.

Let’s hope that things end up being not quite as bad as it looks like they could be.

But you know what they say: “Hope for the best but prepare for the worst”.

http://www.home-fish.com Mikkel Garcia

I am both scared and excited about the effect of the ARM meltdown (represented in your graphs). I am scared because this housing crisis could leave our nation poorer, but I’m excited because I can potentially buy cheaper properties.

I’ve been plotting foreclosures on a google map at http://www.home-fish.com and have noticed the numbers increasing over the past year.

I’ve also been hearing about backlogged inventory the banks haven’t wanted to put on the market because they dont want to deflate the current housing prices. We are in for a wild ride soon.
Stu

By the time the prices come down, the question will be; “Do you you actually want to buy those homes”?

As an example; there’s already some great deals in Detroit! lol
http://www.myouterfringe.blogspot.com Scott S.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. The coming collapse will be like nothing the American people have ever seen as the government does nothing to prevent it and hides it from our eyes….which is fine, most people don’t want their happy existence interrupted….they are too bust being dumbed down and won’t even see it coming.
http://www.myouterfringe.blogspot.com Scott S.

I would love to link to your blog!
Jorge

Should do wonders for the crime rates, too. Better strap in folks, ’cause we’re in for a wild ride…
Andrew P

This deliquency graph explains why The Great Obama has been tryimg to implement a complete ban on forclosures. Can you say “extend and pretend”
?
mogger65

It is one thing to be a realist but the fact is, on would think that if everyone were to believe that US real estate was bottoming many first home buyers and overseas buyers would jump on it, this could go a huge way to levelling the playing field, then there could be a big improvement in 12 months time.
With blogs like this they will not buy out of fear that prices will dive further.
So many people in the US want this thing to sink the whole nation due to the rotten eggs that have run off into the night with a big bag of cash. It is sad really.
Brett

Unfortunately Americans have no idea what this “collapse” is really going to bring. Total financial system collapse and most likely severe social problems (ie: riots). Americans are not prepared for disruption in the JIT supply environment which is sure to follow. Be smart and prepare for what these people are intentionally bringing.
Roger Houston

As mentioned in the article: I will continue to hope for the best and prepare for the worst (including stockpiling more ammunition).
http://TrumpTheRecession.com Tom

I deal in the Distressed Properties Market, and I fully expect not only the housing market to be driven down by defaults but the market to have externial pressure from a weaker dollar and the inflation heading our way at the end of 2010 because of it. I would suggest you pick up a book titled ” AFTERSHOCK” written by David Wiedemer it will open your eye’s to the mess comming our way.
mogger65

How can low house prices be really bad in the long run?, if you lost out getting back in is not so hard as time goes by, over here in Aussie the average is now around 2X US prices, that is around $450,000!!!!! or 7 times the average wage, got to be unsustainable.
big wave

Jail bush and his cronies of greenspan and summers and benanke and geithner
Brett

The housing issue COULD be amplified with the health care debacle happening right now! Think through this – health care passes (today?), insurance companies realize that they need to let people go and to raise rates by 20% (they are already raising rates as of right now), health care costs go up by 20% for average people by 20% or say $200 per month, people stop paying their mortgages of which they are already starting to do (people are stopping to pay for their mortgages FIRST these days because they know that there are so many challenges that it will take 6 months before banks will get around to foreclosing on them!)…

This is the perfect recipe for disaster!

Brett
P.S. Be prepared! Check out http://www.survivalblog.com for more information on how to be ready!
Eric

mogger65: The market here in the US crashed when the housing prices were 12-15x the median income. We’re currently at around 8x in my market, and nobody in their right mind is willing to buy. My area probably won’t return to a reasonable 2-2.5x until all the supports are gone and the boomers start retiring (front edge hits in 1-3 years, with the peak coming roughly 15 years after that), at which point housing may become exceptionally cheap as estate sales and retirement realities hit. It’ll be on a downward spiral for at least a couple decades. I suspect the next wave that is coming will drop us to 3-4x once the dust settles, then the last bit will be a slow long-term decline as the baby boomers are forced to liquidate their largest assets, houses, which will either decimate the house construction business or the existing house market. Between smaller following generations, market dynamics, house construction rates, and related effects, I expect the average house will be .5-1x the median income sometime in my lifetime (probably around 2030 or so).
Hunter

Jail Bush and his cronies? Maybe you should try checking out a few facts. Ever heard of Glass/Stegil? Do a search on youtube for the 7 dems talking about how sound our economy was just before the crash (which was a response to Bush saying we were heading for big trouble). If you want to jail somebody how about 99% of the politician elected over the past 100 years. This did not start 10 years ago, or 50 years ago, you have to go all the way back to Woodrow Wilson and the creation of the FIAT MONEY SYSTEM. Which directly lead to the crash of 29. Get your head out of the party line and try learning some real history instead of that revisionist/marxist crap they teach in public school. Try studying the Constitution, read the Federalist Papers, read the letters written by Washington, Jefferson, Franklin and others of that time. If you are teachable you will see that both parties have/are/and will be in the future working against the common man.
Real

Hunter: Amen! It’s nice to see someone can see the truth!
jason

Hunter amen brother. I don’t know whats happening to this country man but it makes me sad that no one knows a thing about our true history anymore. Theyre just looking for politicians and the lame stream media to tell them how and what to think.
TruthHunter

We are a long long way from a bottom in Real Estate.
By the standards of most of our history,
the market is full of overbuilt McMansions.
These will likely be remodeled into multi-units if
close in or allowed to crumble if too far from jobs
(How does Suburbia look with $10/gal
gas?) Do you remember the 19th century mansions that
surrounded downtown? In the 60’s and 70’s they were
all slums.
The younger generation will not buy into the myth of
ownership like the Baby Boomers. They only way we
will get back to 2007 prices in the next 20 years is
if we have Weimar style inflation.