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The Next Stock Market Crash Will Be Blamed On Donald Trump But It Will Be The Federal Reserve’s Fault Instead

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A stock market crash is coming, and the Democrats and the mainstream media are going to blame Donald Trump for it even though it won’t be his fault.  The truth is that we were headed for a major financial crisis no matter who won the election.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up a staggering 230 percent since the lows of 2009, and no stock market rally in our history has ever reached the 10 year mark without at least a 20 percent downturn.  At this point stocks are about as overvalued as they have ever been, and every other time we have seen a bubble of this magnitude a historic stock market crash has always followed.  Those that are hoping that this time will somehow be different are simply being delusional.

Since November 7th, the Dow is up by about 3,000 points.  That is an extremely impressive rally, and President Trump has been taking a great deal of credit for it.

But perhaps he should not have been so eager to take credit, because what goes up must come down.  The following is an excerpt from a recent Vanity Fair article

According to Douglas Ramsay, chief investment officer of the Leuthold Group, Trump administration officials will come to regret gloating about the market’s performance. That’s because Trump enters the White House during one of the most richly valued stock markets in U.S. history. The last president to come in at such valuations was George W. Bush, and the dot-com bubble burst soon afterward. Bill Clinton began his second term in a more overvalued stock market in 1997, and exited unscathed. But if his timing were different by just a year, he would have been blamed for the early-aughts market crash.

This stock market bubble was not primarily created by Barack Obama, Donald Trump or any other politician.  Rather, the Federal Reserve was primarily responsible for creating it by pushing interest rates all the way to the floor during the Obama era and by flooding the financial system with hot money during several stages of quantitative easing.

But now the economy is slowing down.  Economic growth on an annual basis was just 0.7 percent during the first quarter, and yet the Federal Reserve is talking about raising interest rates anyway.

The Federal Reserve also raised interest rates in a slowing economy in the late 1930s, and that had the effect of significantly extending the economic problems during that decade.

As I noted in my article entitled “The Federal Reserve Must Go”, there have been 18 recessions or depressions since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, and now we stand on the precipice of another one.

After this next crisis, hopefully Congress will finally understand that it is time to shut the Federal Reserve down for good, and I am going to do all that I can to make that happen.

Ron Paul is someone that I look up to greatly, and he also agrees that the blame for the coming crisis should be placed on the Federal Reserve instead of on Trump…

“There are some dire predictions that say in the next year, or 18 months, we have something arriving worse than 2008 and 2009, the downturn is much worse,” Paul said in a recent interview with liberty-minded anti-globalist radio host Alex Jones. “They’ll say, ah, it’s all Trump’s fault. No. It wasn’t. 08 and 09 wasn’t Obama’s fault. It was the fault of the Federal Reserve, it was the fault of the Keynesian economic model, the spending too much, the deficit. So, unfortunately, there’s nothing he can do — Trump can’t do it.”

Paul, a medical doctor who took a keen interest in economics throughout his celebrated career as a constitutionalist in Congress, said Trump could “help” the situation by pursuing good policies. “But you can’t avoid the correction, the correction is locked in place, because the deficits are there, the malinvestment, everybody agrees interest rates have been too low too long,” he said in the late January interview. “The only thing he can do is allow the recession to come, get it over with, liquidate the debt. Politically, nobody wants that, so you’re going to see runaway inflation before you see this country wake up.”

Over the past decade, the U.S. economy has grown at an average rate of just 1.33 percent, and there is no possible way to put a positive spin on that.

And now the economy appears to be entering a fresh slowdown.  A couple of months ago, banking giant UBS warned about “a sudden slowdown in new credit”

There’s been a sudden slowdown in new credit extended to businesses over the last year, one that strategists at UBS are calling “drastic” and “highly uncommon outside of economic downturns.”

And since that time, lending has tightened up even more.  The following comes from Zero Hedge

According to the latest Fed data [7], the all-important C&I loan growth contraction has not only continued, but over the past two months, another 50% has been chopped off, and what in early March was a 4.0% annual growth [4]is now barely positive, down to just 2.0%, and set to turn negative in just a few weeks. This was the lowest growth rate since May 2011, right around the time the Fed was about to launch QE2.

At the same time, total loan growth has likewise continued to decline, and as of the second week of May was down to 3.8%, the weakest overall loan creation in three years.

This is exactly what we would expect to see if we were entering a new recession.  Neil Howe, one of the authors of The Fourth Turning, recently warned that “winter is coming” and I have to admit that I agree with him.

So when the stock market finally crashes, how bad could it be?

Well, one analyst that spoke to CNBC said that other historic market crashes have averaged “about 42 percent”…

“If you look at the market historically, we have had, on average, a crash about every eight to 10 years, and essentially the average loss is about 42 percent,” said Kendrick Wakeman, CEO of financial technology and investment analytics firm FinMason.

And as I have explained many times in the past, stocks would have to fall about 40 to 50 percent from current levels just for the stock market to get back to “normal” again.  The valuations that we are seeing today are absolutely insane, and there is no possible way that they are sustainable.

When the crash happens, many people will be pointing their fingers at Trump, but it won’t be his fault.

Instead, it will be the Federal Reserve that will be at fault, and hopefully this coming crisis will convince the American people that it is time to end this insidious debt-based central bank for good.

 
  • ISA41:10

    “The Next Stock Market Crash Will Be Blamed On Donald Trump But It Will Be The Federal Reserve’s Fault Instead”

    BECAUSE ALL LIBERALS ARE LIARS!!!!!

    • Tim

      The elite wanted Trump as President so that he, and conservatives by extension, can be blamed for the next crisis. If they didn’t want him, he wouldn’t have gotten past the primaries.

      • JC Teecher

        Have you ever thought that the Creator of Heaven and Earth, may have had a say in who became potus?

        • DeathtoFiat

          Lucifer rules this world, and he appoints his minions to positions of power within it. We are here to suffer for our sins, and this generation will do so more than any before it. Jesus would not have had to come here and die were it not true.

          • Carl

            And who exactly gave lucifer the power to rule this world? God.

            In your bible can you show me examples of lucifer doing evil things to people?

            Please don’t include job because that was a bet between god and lucifer and god allowed lucifer to do said things (which implies without gods permission lucifer has NO power at all).

          • Carl

            Edited to add about the whole job situation in the bible. If god is omnipotent as teecher and others have said, then he would have already known that job would not falter in his faith. Thus their would be no reason for god to allow satan to kill job’s entire family and really no reason for the bet. The whole concept of this story is a reflection of human egoism. Of course you have to know that the whole job story is just a story and never actually happened, right?

          • Paul Patriot

            How do you know it never happened, were you there?????

          • Carl

            Who was there to tell us it happened? Did god give some magical play by play? Doubtful. This is why people NEED to be educated so they don’t fall for the creative license of the few.

            If you have ever read any anthologies or works of older fiction you would be able to see the parallel between the stories in the bible and the books of the past.

            Unfortunately most do not study past the 12th grade and those in college fair no better depending on their major because they only study the required reading material and nothing else.

            This skews their worldview and gives them an incomplete picture of reality.

            Kind of like christians who refuse to even question or read arguments that go against their faith.

          • Jerry C

            Your ignorance amuses me. You literally believe that whomever chisels it in stone first has the market on the truth?! Let me explain it to you so even a child can understand. Long before any human being wrote something down, for thousands of years those stories were handed down from generation to generation via oral tradition. Please stop embarrassing yourself.

          • Carl

            How many people did god kill in the bible compared to the devil?

          • Gay Veteran

            were you?

          • socalbeachdude

            What utter nonsense.

          • JC Teecher

            Lucifer does have dominion over the World, which is to say the flesh and all it lusts after. That is why liberals and their idiot counterparts are controlled by the evil spirits of Satan that roam the earth.
            Sometimes they have fallen so low that they have welcomed singular demonic spirits to live within their bodies.
            Those types are very scary to other nonbelievers and even some Christians that do not have the faith the size of a mustard seed.
            For those of us that do have the full covering armor and protection from the blood of Jesus Christ, we fear nothing in this realm, and have power over evil within it and even in the next dimension where most of them reside until they see an opening and a willing participant on earth that they can hide out inside of.

          • Dodgeball

            When someone owns an apartment building, they become what is known as the Landlord. In many cases, the Landlord cannot or does not physically live in that apartment building so he has someone else run things and he is generally called the ‘Apartment Manager’. The manager does not RULE the apartment but merely maintains it. The Landlord of the building does not submit to the manager but it’s the other way around

            God is the Landlord (creator), of the earth and Satan (by fiat), is now the manager, only because man (in Genesis), gave it to him to by default. He does not ‘rule’ the earth but just ‘controls’ it for his own evil purposes and intentions (a bad manager). Having current control over it, he has to have his minions help him. Their time is short now though, as the Landlord is soon coming back to reclaim His building and get rid of the evil manager!

            If you want to “suffer” for your sins, be my guest but mine are under the blood now as I am forgiven, and even if I sin again and again, I can go to the Father (the Landlord), and ask His forgiveness! I won’t get that consideration from the evil ‘manager’. In fact, he doesn’t care much what I do!

        • Carl

          For gods sake you really are a brainwashed moron. God has nothing to do with who gets elected President, Senator or Congressman. If you really believe that god sits around influencing elections and does nothing to help abused children and starving animals (I only mention children and animals since they are innocents in our society and not willing purveyors of evil like adults) then your god is even more of a pathetic representation of your religion.

          • Paul Patriot

            You are the one who is brainwashed, and shows your foolishness with such nonsensical rambling.

            God is sovereign, but allows sinful human beings to reject him and make their own decisions.

          • Carl

            “God is sovereign, but allows sinful human beings to reject him and make their own decisions.”

            OK SO THAT MEANS HE IS NOT INVOLVED IN PICKING THE POTUS. You can’t have it both ways. Either he is involved in the day to day affairs of human beings OR he is not because we have free will. Which is it? Or is it whichever is the convenient option for the situation?

          • JC Teecher

            I can only imagine what obi has blasted out again, and for the record I don’t care, which is why I leave him/her/it on block.
            Glad you see it for what it is, a hard core Christian and God hater.

          • Gay Veteran

            of course you blocked him.
            you sound like a liberal who doesn’t want to hear contrary opinions

          • socalbeachdude

            Laughably false.

          • socalbeachdude

            Sad, but apparently true.

          • Jerry C

            YHVH’s 10 Commandments given to humankind on how to love HIM and our fellow man is for our benefit. Your choice and others to reject HIM is the world you have today. You reap what you sow.

      • socalbeachdude

        Perhaps, but they sure fought him as hard as they could and are still in a total war against Trump.

        • SnodtBlossom

          CNBC/Trading Nation 5/2/17
          The stock market is doing even better than you think,..
          One gauge of market health is its breadth, which measures the number of stocks advancing relative to the number of stocks declining.
          Jonathan Krinsky of MKM Partners notes the Russell 3000’s breadth is quite strong at current levels.
          This may suggest the rally is technically sound, but from a valuation perspective stocks may appear elevated at current levels.
          Market strength beneath the surface? Market strength beneath the surface?
          Tuesday, 2 May 2017 | 9:06 AM ET | 04:32
          One technical measure of market strength shows that the rally is on firm footing, according to one technical analyst.

          Market breadth — the number of stocks advancing relative to the number of stocks falling — is now quite strong, observes Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners.

          Specifically, Krinsky is referring to market breadth within the Russell 3000, an index that tracks nearly all U.S. equities. With roughly 73 percent of all stocks in the Russell 3000 above their 200-day moving averages, “it’s tough to make the case that breadth is weak,” as Krinsky wrote in a recent note.

          “We use the 60 percent threshold as the bull-bear level. If you go back to the last time we had a significant breadth divergence that did lead to a market correction, that was back in the summer of 2015. And we held under that 60 percent threshold for almost two months before the market finally rolled over,” he said.

          Though some market watchers have made the argument that a mere handful of high-performing stocks are driving the broader market rally (notably Apple, Facebook and Amazon), that doesn’t mean other stocks aren’t participating in the rally, Krinsky noted.

          A small number of stocks contributing the most gains would be troubling if the remainder of equities were not participating and moving lower, “and that’s really not the case,” he said in an interview Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

          While this measurement indicates strength in Krinsky’s eyes, investors ought to keep an eye on that percentage of Russell 3000 components above their 200-day moving average. If that number were to roll beneath 60 percent as it did two years ago, “that’s really where we would get worried.”

          Though breadth is indeed strong, stocks’ valuations appear a bit elevated at current levels, said Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors. He remains cautious on equities at current levels.
          The market’s breadth has “broadened” because of a perception that there is going to be synchronized global growth and that a fiscal stimulus package will come out of Washington, he said on “Trading Nation.”
          In other words, the fact that many stocks have moved higher recently doesn’t necessarily mean that the rally will continue.
          Rebecca Ungarino
          Associate Producer

      • ISA41:10

        BS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Zlatko Milanovic

      You are a bloody simpleton, mate. The world is not so simple. But if screaming foolish slogans makes you feel better, go for it.

  • aldownunder

    I know someone that wont like this article
    Get ready for a barrage of facts and articles

    • PocoPete

      Who?

      • aldownunder

        maybe someone from southern cally dude

        • PocoPete

          Oh.

      • SnodtBlossom

        me.. NYT 4/29/17
        LONDON — Consumers of luxury goods will apparently worry for only so long about the effects of global unrest, economic fluctuations or a volatile political outlook before they start spending again. Or so suggests a new report by the consulting firm Bain & Company, which predicts an upturn in the beleaguered luxury industry this year.
        After slowing sales amid fears of terrorist attacks, unpredictable stock markets and currency fluctuations that kept many tourists away from cities including Paris, the market will return to growth in 2017, according to the Bain report, the Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor, which was released on Monday. The report estimates a global personal luxury goods market of 254 billion euros to €259 billion ($284 billion to $289 billion) in 2017, assuming constant exchange rates, up 2 percent to 4 percent from €249 billion last year.

        “It is a sad state of affairs, but people are becoming more accustomed to uncertainty being part of their lives,” said Claudia D’Arpizio, a partner at Bain who specializes in the luxury and fashion industries. “The impact of events like terror attacks are becoming less strong on the luxury market.”

        The stronger forecast for 2017 stems from three factors, Ms. D’Arpizio said: a resurgence in Chinese consumer spending, both at home and abroad; a return of tourism confidence in Europe; and efforts by luxury brands to identify and respond to the tastes of specific groups of consumers, particularly millennials.

        • PocoPete

          Oh.

    • BS1986

      Ask him about Obama’s spy program.

      • socalbeachdude

        Huh?

        • BS1986

          YOU KNOW? THe NSA watching everyone and everything electronic under the obozo presidency……..my how the libtards forget

          • socalbeachdude

            What on earth does that issue have to do with anything related to the Federal Reserve?

          • BS1986

            They work together.

    • Paul Patriot

      Lol!

      I already can see the blog filled with copy and paste articles, I can almost feel the fury in the poists, lol!

  • Tim

    “After this next crisis, hopefully Congress will finally understand that it is time to shut the Federal Reserve down for good, and I am going to do all that I can to make that happen.”

    Oh, come on. That will never happen. I agree that the Federal Reserve is at the root of our economic problems, but to think that it will be abolished is just delusional. I can tell you that if it is done away with the elite will replace it with something just as bad.

    • socalbeachdude

      No, the Federal Reserve has nothing to do with the excessive debt and other economic problems in the USA and is one of the few parts of the federal government that actually functions honestly and correctly. And it certainly will continue to be the central bank of the USA for the foreseeable future.

      • idiotic

        laughably false…

        • Zlatko Milanovic

          Which part?

          • idiotic

            “the Federal Reserve has nothing to do with the excessive debt and other economic problems in the USA and is one of the few parts of the federal
            government that actually functions honestly and correctly.”

          • socalbeachdude

            What I stated is 100% true and correct.

  • Tim

    It concerns me that you seem to be defending Donald Trump. I mean, during his campaign he alleged that Saudi Arabia was behind 9/11. But recently Trump went to Saudi Arabia where he was received like royalty and signed a huge arms deal with them.

    Trump has done a complete about-face on many other issues that he campaigned on as well.

    • socalbeachdude

      Saudi Arabia, Israel, the UK, and US were all behind the crimes that were committed in the US on September 11, 2001 and the people responsible need to be prosecuted.

  • Carl

    I think people will be too busy trying to survive to carry on about who is to blame for the crash. I am still waiting for trump to repeal (not replace) obamacare like he promised to do immediately after taking office.

    Personally I am sick and tired of people defending presidents and politicians just because they are republican or democrat. Neither side has the best interests of the AVERAGE american citizen at heart. When will people wake up and realize this. Both sides are playing us all.

    It puts blinders on people and they can’t discern truth from fiction and will buy all the bull their pick is selling. All the while we know these same actions would be criticized if it was coming from the other side.

  • JC Teecher

    As I agree with what this article implies, that a stock market fall is coming; I have to set the record straight on a couple of important facts first.
    What constitutes a stock market crash?
    The dropping of the Dow alone by 10% (a correction), by 20% (a bearish market), 30% and above, in a short time frame, (a crash) is not necessarily a complete stock market crash. There are several indexes at play here as well. Two of the most well know is the NASDAQ and the S & P 500.
    Even though many will disagree, the 2008/2009 market corrections, and eventually, “ barely” a bear market, did not constitute a crash, since it was basically, at first, determined by the DOW, which is only about 30 of the most traded stocks from diverse corporations, and it was spread out over a long period of time.
    Points to consider:
    The DOW closing high for the market happened on Oct. 9th 2007 at 14,164.
    By June 27th 2008, it had become a bear market by losses of about 20%.
    On Sept 29th 2008 it had a single day drop of 777.68 and was down to 10,365 points.
    From the high of 14,164 down to 10,365, there was about a 3800 point drop, which by my calculations, meant there had not even been an overall drop of 30%, but closer to a 27% drop. I’m sure some individuals 401ks made them feel like there had been a crash.
    However; the crash of the DOW did not fully come about until about March 9th, 2009 when the big three indexes bottomed out at about an average of 55% losses each from their all time highs from back in the Fall of 2007.
    The key points are these, this drop/fall/crash did not happen in a short period of time, which meant most investors had options way ahead of time to make shifts in their holdings. Many never thought it could get so bad, so they hesitantly held on, and then in fear, cashed out after the bottom. Many of those never got back in the markets out of fear, and are still feeling the losses today. Many stayed in and rode out the storm, and have rebounded, in some cases right nicely.
    Will there be another opportunity, because of warning signs, and plenty of space and time, for people to get out before the next big fall?
    Will the next one be a full on crash, in a short period of time, possibly in a matter of days, or a week?
    These are things they (investors) have to consider. No stock broker I know of, will be giving their clients the advice to sell on the heels of a few warning signs, so it will be up to the individual. Everyone has to sail their own ship, and that goes for prepping as well.
    September and October is going to be a very shaky time for America, because the majority, have not heeded any warnings. The change in the previous tax and spend and corrupt crony style of dictatorship gov has changed just a little, but will it grow or dwindle? The FR will undoubtedly play a major role in what happens in the next several months, but; will it do it with cruel intentions, or just by happenstance?
    Time will tell, and that my friends, is something we ain’t got too much of remaining.

    • JC Teecher

      Just to add…..”In February 2007, a coming recession and bear market was predicted by Paul Lamont due to a growing debt bubble, the housing bubble and lack of car sales.”
      What have we got now?

      m sny der is predicting, and has been for some time, a coming recession and bear market, and then a market crash, and then possibly a complete economic collapse.
      I do believe what he is saying will happen, and possibly within the next several (3 to 5) months, or if not then, within a year or two at least. Hopefully there will be enough warning signs that will shake people up in order, for them to get their house in order.

      • Zlatko Milanovic

        Perhaps. But we’ve been hearing this since 2009, so while I agree to an extent, I’m also aware that the world continues to turn, the markets have not collapsed, and this blog continues to recycle old articles again and again…

        • JC Teecher

          Well Zlat, if you are prepared for the very real possibilities of what is surely to happen, then you can rest easy.
          The repetitive articles about a stock market collapse is nothing new across the full spectrum of prepping sites, of which this site is just one segment of.
          It should not bother you that the warnings go out on a regular basis, because there are new people coming to this site all the time, and some have never even given the possibility of another collapse, a second thought, much less about timing possibilities and ways to prepare.

          Now, in saying that; many of those people see the ramblings and continual negative rants of posters like sbd, Carl, and fartblossom, and they never come back, unless they like the drama, or better said…nonsense.
          I will say this, although he/she is usually all over the place, sbd does hit on a truth now and then, but a blind hog finds an acorn every now and then as well.

          • Carl

            SoCalBeachDude is never negative. He posts informative article headlines with links you can choose to go to or not go to.

          • socalbeachdude

            Yep, thank you, Carl!

          • Orange

            Although I do not agree with SoCal on everything he posts, I also find he is not rude and/or boorish like some posters.

          • JC Teecher

            I see birds of a feather are flocking together, just below. Do do usually runs downhill.

          • SnodtBlossom

            mission accomplished

        • socalbeachdude

          We now have bigger BUBBLES than ever been seen in the history of the world, and BUBBLES ALWAYS BURST.

  • Jeri Brace

    regardless if trump gets blamed or not…… Trump will be a one term president if he doesn’t get impeached first. Trump has flip-flopped too many times for anyone to believe him anymore. he’s done!!

    • Carl

      Yes he will be a one term president. I shudder to think what option the democrats will present for the 2020 election.

      • Zlatko Milanovic

        Biden.

        • socalbeachdude

          Biden couldn’t get elected dog catcher of a tiny little town in the middle of nowhere.

    • socalbeachdude

      Yes, you are quite correct, Jeri, and he’s spending this weekend burying himself in more pies of BLATANT LIES.

  • print with a capital P

    fed will do “whatever it take” ie massive with a capital m printing of cash and directly buy stocks.literally buy millions of shares daily by printing fresh trillions almost daily!china does it ,EU does it,japs do it,and fed (covertly) does it,they’ll just stop bein shy bout it

    • socalbeachdude

      Absolutely and totally false. The Federal Reserve is PROHIBITED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE ACT FROM BUYING OR OWNING ANY STOCKS and has nothing whatsoever to do with the stock markets and it certainly does not “give out” any money to anyone ever.

      • ignoramous

        Then can you please explain what it means to be, “too big to fail.”

        • socalbeachdude

          There is no such thing as “Too Big To Fail” (TBTF) these days and a number of years ago we moved into the world of “Too Big To BAIL” (TBTB).

          • ignoramous

            So you admit that at least some point in our history banks were too big to fail? What moved them into the territory of too big to bail? You just said in your previous comment that banks were never bailed out. Wow, cognitive dissonance is strong with you.

          • socalbeachdude

            Tens of thousands of banks have failed in the US over the past 100 years with more than 11,000 failing during the so-called “Great Depression.” There was NO NET COST WHATSOEVER to “bail out” any banks to either the Federal Reserve nor the federal government back in 2008-2009. Federal government TARP funds were FORCED ON BANKS AND OTHER FINANCIAL ENTITIES and were nothing but LOANS WITH VERY HIGH INTEREST which were all repaid in full as soon as financial concerns were allowed to repay them to the federal government.

            What is TOO BIG TO BAIL (TBTB) now is SOVEREIGN GOVERNMENTS which are all DROWNING IN DEBT and much of those debts will have to be written down and off with huge losses to asset holders of those unsustainable and unrepayable debts.

  • socalbeachdude

    No, the ongoing crashes of the stock markets have NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with the Federal Reserve, but rather everything to do with with FOOLISH MANIC SPECULATORS IGNORING THE FUNDAMENTALS related to PE multiples and bidding up stocks just as if they were BitCON. When stock markets reach the stage that there are NO GREATER FOOLS TO BUY AT TOP PRICES THEN THEY CRASH.

  • socalbeachdude

    The Federal Reserve has nothing whatsoever to do with the equities (stock) markets and does not even own a single share of stock and has WARNED REPEATEDLY as to excessive valuations in the stock markets as has the BIS (Bank for International Settlements).

  • socalbeachdude

    The Federal Reserve has NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with stocks and it has warned repeatedly about excessive stock overvaluations which have been caused by CORPORATE BUYBACKS and STUPID MANIC SPECULATORS high on hopium and drunk on false perceptions wile totally ignoring fundamental valuation metrics.

    Remember One Thing – Karl Denninger

    The Fed has never, in its history, managed to actually prevent a market collapse.

    It did not do so in 1929.

    It did not do so in 1987, despite it being evident that the market was going to blow up.

    It did not do so in 2000, despite it being evident that the market was grossly overheated.

    It did not do so in 2008, despite having more than a year worth of warning (the two Bear Stearns hedge funds) and in fact Bernanke testified under oath that “subprime was contained.”

    It will not do so this time either.

    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=230456

  • socalbeachdude

    Why one hedge-fund titan is bracing for ‘all hell to break loose’ in the stock market

    Billionaire investor Paul Singer has a bleak outlook for Wall Street, and he has built a $5 billion rainy-day fund in preparation for what he describes as “all hell” to break out.

    Singer, who runs $33 billion hedge fund Elliot Management, wrote in a recent letter to investors that a bout of protracted low volatility and a tendency of stocks to levitate higher is likely to lead to near-term carnage in financial markets:

    Here’s how Singer puts it:

    Given groupthink and the determination of policy makers to do ‘whatever it takes’ to prevent the next market ‘crash,’ we think that the low-volatility levitation magic act of stocks and bonds will exist until the disenchanting moment when it does not. And then all hell will break loose (don’t ask us what hell looks like …), a lamentable scenario that will nevertheless present opportunities that are likely to be both extraordinary and ephemeral. The only way to take advantage of those opportunities is to have ready access to capital.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-one-hedge-fund-titan-is-bracing-for-all-hell-to-break-lose-on-wall-street-2017-05-26

  • socalbeachdude

    What will happen is the COLLAPSE IN PREPOSTEROUSLY INFLATED EQUITY (STOCK) PRICES as they are totally detached from the fundamentals and that will TOTALLY DESTROY much of the perceived “wealth” in the USA which will most severely impact those at the top.

    Skechers already experienced that happening late last fall and the Greenbergs “lost” nearly $1 billion in stock valuations in a day and the stock so far hasn’t recovered much despite the fact that they are now making more than $1 billion per quarter in revenues and have strong profits.

    SKECHERS STOCK CRASHES 30% IN A DAY

    Skechers stock craters 28% as company posts weaker-than-expected quarterly sales

    Skechers USA Inc. shares SKX, -30.29% tumbled 28% in after-hours trade Thursday, after the footwear company’s third-quarter sales fell short of analyst estimates. Skechers said it had net income of $66.6 million, or 43 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with $51.1 million, or 33 cents a share, in the year-earlier period.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/skechers-stock-craters-28-as-company-posts-weaker-than-expected-quarterly-sales-2015-10-22?dist=afterbell

  • socalbeachdude

    iHeartRadio parent may be shaping up for a bruising fight with its lenders

    IHRT -20.09%

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iheartradio-parent-is-shaping-up-for-a-fight-with-its-lenders-2017-05-26

  • socalbeachdude

    Want to invest in bitcoin? Investors need to be willing to lose it all, adviser says

    BTCUSD -15.61%

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-invest-in-bitcoin-investors-need-to-be-willing-to-lose-it-all-adviser-says-2017-05-26

  • socalbeachdude

    All Heck Breaks Loose in Toronto’s House Price Bubble

    “It’s Fear.”

    During the first two weeks in May, according to preliminary data from Toronto Real Estate Board, home listings surged 47% from the same period last year even as sales plunged 16%. The average selling price dropped 3.3% from April – and this, after a 33% year-over-year spike in home prices in March and a 25% surge in April. Something is happening to Toronto’s blistering house price bubble.

    Canada’s largest alternative mortgage lender, Home Capital Group, which focuses on new immigrants and subprime borrowers turned down by the banks, is melting down after a run on its deposits that crushed its funding sources. The industry is worried about contagion.

    At the same time, the provincial government of Ontario announced a slew of drastic measures, including a 15% tax on purchases by non-resident foreign investors to tamp down on the housing market insanity that left many locals unable to buy even a modest home.

    It comes after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz warned in April that home prices are in “an unsustainable zone,” that the market “has divorced itself from any fundamentals that we can identify,” that there was “no fundamental story that we could tell to justify that kind of inflation rate in housing prices,” and that “It’s time we remind folks that prices of houses can go down as well as up. People need to ask themselves very carefully, ‘Why am I buying this house?”’

    A few days ago, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Canada’s six largest banks on concerns over their exposure to the housing bubble and household indebtedness that ranks among the highest in the world.

    http://wolfstreet.com/2017/05/24/toronto-house-price-bubble-pops/

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    AutoZone’s stock suffers record price plunge after profit and sales miss

    AZO -11.84%

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/autozones-stock-suffers-record-price-plunge-after-profit-and-sales-miss-2017-05-23

    • SnodtBlossom

      it’s gaining somewhat rapidly off that low

      • LIZ THE SHIZ

        talking to yourself again

        • SnodtBlossom

          yep, and u still listen

          • James Staten

            Snottly, I hope you listened to me from the last comment I sent?

          • SnodtBlossom

            um.. last comment..

          • James Staten

            yeah, i said you should get a martini, and sit down an listen to America the Babylon

          • SnodtBlossom

            i do like dirty martinis.. the rest doesn’t sound fun

  • socalbeachdude

    HUGE DEFLATION IN GASOLINE PRICES IN USA…

    Memorial Day gas prices set to be 22% cheaper than average

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/memorial-day-gas-prices-set-to-be-22-cheaper-than-average-2017-05-23

  • socalbeachdude

    NOBLE GROUP SHARES CRASH, TRADING HALTED…

    Asia’s largest commodity trader, Singapore based Noble Group, shares crashed after being downgraded by S&P to CCC+ and trading is now halted in its stock.

    Trading in Noble halted after shares plunge 32%

    http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/noble-shares-plunge-on-opening-sgx-issues-query

    Noble shares plunge amid a double dose of bad news

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/22/noble-shares-plunge-amid-a-double-whammy-of-bad-news.html

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    ABSURDITY OF PRESENT STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS…

    Apple is nearly 40% more valuable than the city of Chicago

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-is-nearly-40-more-valuable-than-the-city-of-chicago-2017-05-22

  • socalbeachdude

    Foot Locker shares sink after earnings get stung by IRS tax refund delays

    FL -16.65%

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/foot-locker-shares-sink-after-earnings-get-stung-by-irs-tax-refund-delays-2017-05-19

  • socalbeachdude

    Elon Musk: Tesla’s market cap ‘higher than we have any right to deserve’

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-teslas-market-cap-higher-than-we-have-any-right-to-deserve-2017-05-18

  • socalbeachdude

    Bernanke: Always ‘puzzled’ by way markets ignore political risk until ‘last moment’

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-always-puzzled-by-way-markets-ignore-political-risk-until-last-moment-2017-05-17

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    Founder of the world’s largest hedge fund says the ‘magnitude’ of the next downturn will be epic

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hedge-fund-pro-ray-dalio-has-some-bad-news-says-for-stock-market-investors-2017-05-12

  • socalbeachdude

    Is Trump boosting the economy? Here’s what Goldman Sachs says…

    Ever since President Donald Trump took office, the main question on the mind of U.S. stock market investors has been, “will the market optimism his election inspired prove justified by economic activity, or did the rally simply set stocks up for a bigger fall?” According to a Goldman Sachs analysis of corporate commentary, it’s looking more like the latter.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-donald-trump-boosting-the-economy-goldman-finds-mixed-signals-2017-05-12

  • socalbeachdude

    The “New” Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction

    According to Goldman, a mere 10 stocks — 10 stocks — account for almost half the S&P’s gains for the year.

    Forty-six percent, to be precise.

    This year’s bull’s-eye stocks are the so-called FAANGs — Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google.

    Rounding out the top 10 are Visa… Philip Morris… Oracle… Home Depot… and Broadcom.

    Most other stocks are zeroes — or worse.

    David Stockman in yesterday’s reckoning:

    “During the last 70 days, the FAANGs have gained $260 billion in value, while the other 495 companies in the S&P 500 have lost an identical amount… Other than the five FAANG stocks, the market has been silently collapsing since March 1.”

    Meanwhile, recent data from Fundstrat Global Advisors reveal that just 40 stocks out of 500 — 8%, that is — account for some 85% of the S&P’s gains this year.

    https://dailyreckoning.com/new-financial-weapons-mass-destruction/

  • socalbeachdude

    HOME LENDING MORTGAGE MARKET NEARING SHUTDOWN…

    Fannie and Freddie are nearly out of money and D.C. is getting anxious

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-and-freddie-are-nearly-out-of-money-and-washington-is-getting-anxious-2017-05-11

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    Hertz’s stock is having its worst day in seven years, and it’s not entirely the rent-a-car company’s fault

    HTZ -14.15%

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hertz-stock-slammed-the-most-in-seven-years-but-its-not-all-the-companys-fault-2017-05-09

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    China is the EPICENTER of the Global Economic Crash

    Ignore China’s credit risks at your peril

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-20/ignore-china-s-credit-risks-at-your-peril-says-top-bond-manager

    China has a MAJOR CRACKDOWN in progress against CAPITAL FLIGHT and outbound investments and is getting that huge problem SHUT DOWN.

    China finally halts outflows. Now what?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-10/china-finally-stems-capital-outflows-now-what

  • socalbeachdude

    ETFs are ‘weapons of mass destruction’ – Bloomberg

    ETF’s now account for nearly 30% of all stock trading daily.

    Exchange-traded funds are “weapons of mass destruction” that have distorted stock prices and created the potential for a market selloff, according to the managers of the FPA Capital Fund.

    “When the world decides that there is no need for fundamental research and investors can just blindly purchase index funds and ETFs without any regard to valuation, we say the time to be fearful is now,” Arik Ahitov and Dennis Bryan, who run the $789 million fund, said in an April 6 letter to investors in the actively managed fund.

    The flood of money into passive products is making stock prices move in lockstep and creating markets increasingly divorced from underlying fundamentals, the managers said. As the market moves ever higher, there’s the potential for a sharp decline. The U.S. ETF market has about $2.7 trillion in assets, the majority in products that track indexes. ETFs have attracted more than $160 billion in new flows so far this year, Bloomberg data show.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-27/etfs-are-weapons-of-mass-destruction-fpa-capital-managers-say

  • socalbeachdude

    U.S. Steel suffers biggest stock plunge in its 26-year public history – By Tomi Kilgore MarketWatch

    Shares of U.S. Steel Corp. plunged 25% in morning trade Wednesday, putting them on course to suffer the biggest one-day selloff since they went public in April 1991, after the steelmaker reported a surprise quarterly loss.

    The previous biggest one-day drop was 18% on Oct. 15, 2008. The stock, which was by far the biggest percentage decliner listed on the NYSE, was trading at the lowest level seen since Nov. 8, 2016. At one point, the stock had nearly doubled after the election, to a 2 1/2-year high close of $41.26 on Feb. 21, before all the post-election gains were erased. Volume topped the full-day average of 19.0 million shares within 15 minutes after the open.

    The company reported late Tuesday an adjusted loss per share of 83 cents, compared with the FactSet consensus for a profit of 35 cents a share. Revenue of $2.73 billion also missed expectations of $2.95 billion. The stock has now shed 29% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 6.7%.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-steel-suffers-biggest-stock-plunge-in-its-26-year-public-history-2017-04-26?siteid=nbsh

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    Housing’s echo bubble now exceeds the 2006-07 bubble peak

    http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr17/echo-bubble4-17.html

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    Record high! Nasdaq hits 6,000 for the first time EVER

    The Nasdaq crossed the 6,000 threshold on Tuesday, aided by gains in a handful of large-cap tech names, more than seventeen years after it last marked a 1,000 point milestone.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4443916/Seventeen-years-5-000-Nasdaq-tops-6-000.html

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    JUST LIKE 2007 RIGHT BEFORE THE CRASH!!!

    STOCKS SMASH RECORDS…

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/25/us-markets.html

  • socalbeachdude

    Stock Markets Sit Blithely on a Powerful Time Bomb

    How big is margin debt really, and how much of a threat is it to the stock market and to “financial stability,” as central banks like to call their concerns about crashes? Turns out, no one really knows.

    What we do know: Margin debt, as reported monthly by the New York Stock Exchange, spiked to another record high of $528 billion. But it’s only part of the total outstanding margin debt – which is when investors borrow money from their broker, pledging their portfolio as collateral.

    An example of unreported margin debt: Robo-advisory Wealthfront, a so-called fintech startup overseeing nearly $6 billion, announced that it would offer its clients loans against their portfolios.

    “The dream house. The dream wedding. The dream kitchen. The dream vacation.” That’s how it introduced it in a blog post this week. “We want you to have your cake and eat it too,” it said.

    Instant debt “without the hassle of paperwork,” it said. “We want our clients to be able to borrow what they need, when they need it, directly from their smartphones.” Secured by “your own investments.”

    It’s a great deal as long as stocks are soaring. Clients with at least $100,000 in their account can borrow up to 30% of the account value. It’s seductive: No required monthly payments and no payoff date, though interest accrues and is added to the monthly balance. The rate is as low as 3.25%. “How’s that for flexibility?” it says.

    That’s how margin debt is being pushed at the end of the cycle.

    http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/21/shadow-margin-debt-stock-market-time-bomb/

  • socalbeachdude

    UBER LOSSES: HOW TO LOSE $3 BILLION A YEAR…

    Uber Is Losing Money At A Historic Rate

    With its day-to-day business burning through almost $3 billion last year, the company is in the league of the true money-losing giants.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/matthewzeitlin/uber-is-losing-money-at-a-historic-rate?utm_term=.frmdzMpva#.uh2mjrJV0

    UBER CEO Plays With Fire…

    Brink of Implosion…

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/23/technology/travis-kalanick-pushes-uber-and-himself-to-the-precipice.html

    • Joe Trevors

      Yes, the sooner the crash comes, the less will be the fall. The later the crash comes, the greater will be the fall.

      • socalbeachdude

        Yep.

  • socalbeachdude

    The last time this happened the markets crashed…

    A few days ago Charles Schwab, the investment brokerage firm, announced that the number of new brokerage accounts soared 44% during the first quarter of 2017.

    More specifically, Schwab stated that individual investors are opening up stock trading accounts at the fastest pace the company has seen in 17 years.

    17 years.

    Anyone remember what happened 17 years ago?

    Oh right. The Dot-com bubble burst.

    After years of unbelievable gains in the 1990s, the NASDAQ Composite index peaked at 5,132.52 on March 10, 2000.

    Simultaneously, during the first quarter of 2000, investors were rushing to open new brokerage accounts invest their savings in the stock market.

    The NASDAQ Composite subsequently fell nearly 80% over the next 2 ½ years, wiping out trillions of dollars of wealth from retail investors.

    The last phase of any bubble is almost invariably the euphoric shopping spree of an irrational public that buys stocks, real estate, etc. at record highs, foolishly believing that prices will keep rising indefinitely.

    That’s what happened in 2000.

    And that’s what seems to be happening today.

    Investors are once again clamoring to buy expensive, popular stocks at price levels never before seen in the history of the stock market.

    Company valuations are sky-high.

    At 26.44, the S&P 500’s Price/Earnings ratio is the highest EVER, except for two occasions: the 2008 crash, and the 2000 crash.

    At 28.93, the “Shiller P/E ratio”, which looks at company valuations over a longer-term, 10-year period and adjusts for inflation, is at the highest level EVER, except for two occasions: the 2000 crash, and the 1929 crash.

    Price to sales ratios are near the highest levels in at least 50 years.

    Price to book ratios haven’t been at this level since the 2008 crash.

    And the stock market cap to GDP ratio is the highest since the 2000 crash.

    Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones described these expensive stock market valuations as “terrifying” earlier this month at a closed-door asset management conference hosted by Goldman Sachs.

    Yet for some reason individual retail investors still believe that stock prices will continue to rise.

    According to Yale University’s Stock Market Confidence Index, for example, over 90% of individual investors believe that the stock market will rise in the next 12 months.

    https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-last-time-this-happened-the-market-crashed-21379/

  • socalbeachdude

    MERKEL: EUROPE FIRST – AMERICA & UK NOT RELIABLE

    Merkel vs Trump: German leader warns that Europe can no longer rely on Donald’s America and says its leaders must take ‘destiny into our own hands’ after stormy G7 Summit

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4550106/Merkel-warns-Europe-no-longer-rely-Trump-s-US.html

  • sickandtired

    We need to bring back the gold standard. Multiple denomination gold coins. I’m tired of being fleeced by this corporatocracy.

    • socalbeachdude

      The so-called “gold standard” was just a very brief 60 year failed experiment in the US from 1873 until 1933 at which time it was totally discarded for any domestic purposes and all gold bullion confiscated and made illegal.

      • sickandtired

        That is true for the United States, but gold has been successful as a currency for thousands of years before we implemented a fiat currency system. Gold was made illegal so that fiat currencies could be introduced and lending could be made easier by banks until people became slaves to the banks. The borrower became servant to the lender. The United States government, as with all governments using the global market, are slaves to the modern banking system.

        • socalbeachdude

          GOLD HAS NEVER BEEN A CURRENCY at all for a floating exchange value.

  • nothingtoseehere

    The economy will collapse, then non-corporate debt will be blamed. Next will come the chip to track and control the sheep. All according to plan. Nothing to see here. Please move on.

    • socalbeachdude

      There is now more than $67 trillion in total aggregate debt outstanding in the US.

  • simplemath

    Paper money = ripe for dishonesty
    Digital money = easy pickings
    Gold money = keeps everyone in check

    • socalbeachdude

      Are you not aware that gold has nothing to do with money and that the total value of all of the 180,000 metric tonnes of gold ever mined (70% of which is in jewelry) is less than 1% of the value of global assets?

      • simplemath

        That’s because it’s way under it’s true valuation. Also, the global assets have been artificially deflated to meet the consumption glut of the United States under threat of war. Gold has been used as money far longer than any fiat currency. If gold were treated as the currency that it is, then we wouldn’t be getting robbed by inflation and money printing.

        • aldownunder

          100% correct

          • socalbeachdude

            Not.

        • socalbeachdude

          False. Gold is TOTALLY IRRELEVANT from a financial perspective and just a little niche fungible commodity of no important or use whatsoever other than for making jewelry.

          As to global assets they are far in excess in terms of value relative to the money supply of US dollars which is less than $14 trillion in the regulated US banking system and the value of those assets – including metals such as gold and silver – will be plunging accordingly over this year and coming years.

          Gold has already plummeted 35% in value from its manic speculative high on September 05, 2011 and silver has plunged around 70% from its manic speculative high on the same date and both are headed towards and to their means of $456 and $8 per ounce respectively.

        • PocoPete

          Yes indeed!

  • HeyAHuman

    Enjoy this easy ride while it’s still here. Really take in that 1st world flavor, and savor it… things will be very different soon.

  • plantvegetables

    It might be too late, but it wouldn’t hurt to start a garden.

  • Fleming 007

    The government won’t get rid of the only thing that’s keeping it alive and running at this point which is the federal reserve.

    • socalbeachdude

      The Federal Reserve certainly is not “keeping it alive and running” at all, although its rebate of 94% of its annual profits each year now amounts to around $100 billion to help offset the more than $1 trillion federal deficit.

  • JC Teecher

    Trump may get the blame, but hey!! look at the bright side, he sure looks good while getting blamed, as long as he has the beautiful, smart ,and elegant Melania by his side. At only 47, she has the style and sophistication of a woman in her sixties.

    I am proud to see such an intelligent and soft spoken beauty represent America on the world stage.

    Yes, we could have had a better representative for America as potus, but we could be seeing the likes of the cronies from Little Rock (Clintons), make the US of A look like we were regressing into the depths of satanic worship, while taking America deeper into the NWO.

    At least Trump is supporting our military troops, and the veterans of the war machine of wars, ussag/shadow gov. Today we should pause a few seconds and think about the nearly 1 million that have given their lives to support our Freedoms afforded to all US citizens by our Constitution.
    If I remember correctly, we are the only Nation to continue to have the same Constitution since it’s inception. Now, if we could just get those idiot liberals to abide by it.

    • socalbeachdude

      Frankly, Melania looks like a cheap hooker.

    • Gay Veteran

      “…nearly 1 million that have given their lives to support our Freedoms afforded to all US citizens by our Constitution….”

      not those who died in Syria, Iraq, South Vietnam, etc.

    • socalbeachdude

      The US Constitution has been amended 27 times since its inception which has radically changed the US Constitution.

      List of amendments to the United States Constitution

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution

  • Joe Trevors

    Happy Memorial Day! Yes, the stock market increases to all time highs since Donald Trump became President is probably being manipulated by the same New World Order Republicans & Democrats who hate Trump & are also using the Stock Market as a weapon to bring him down. They will blame him 100%. Melania Trump deserves our respect for wearing black because she knows those overwhelming brainwashing news media, entertainment, political forces spewing continual hatred against Trump! She knows they want him dead. She looks already in mourning. They are killing him every day with their words: “Crucify Trump!” Those same people glorified Barack Obama continuously for 8 years! Happy Memorial Day!

    • socalbeachdude

      Nope, just ignorant GREED AND MANIC SPECULATION.

  • LIZ THE SHIZ

    laughably false, it will be caused by those who control the markets and make money on every side of a trade, they’ll just decide it’s time for the bubble to burst and let all the longs [suckers] take the hit, BTW, have you noticed that Socal and Snodt have seemingly the same level of intellect in their posts , you know what they say about people who talk to themselves

    • socalbeachdude

      Crashes in markets happen when the SUPPLY OF GREATER FOOLS RUN OUT as prices become unattractive to anyone and everyone.

  • greanfinisher

    John Kennedy tried to mess with the Federal Reserve, and an ‘accident’ soon followed.

    • socalbeachdude

      No, he most certainly did not do any such thing.

      • Ghost Of John F. Kennedy

        I tried to abolish the satanic federal reserve and they had me murdered.

        • PocoPete

          Hello Ghost. Are you speaking from beyond the grave? Is there an afterlife? Is gold used as money in the afterlife?

        • JC Teecher

          There are many conspiracy theories about who and why. I think the most plausible, was written about in a book, and came from an insider.
          the word was that the order came from the Vatican and it was layed upon a then Cardinal from NYC to make it happen, with help from the cia.

          I often wondered why such an order would come from the Vatican until, I read about how the workings of pushing for Worldwide Catholicism was very big in that time period. Follow the trail of money, I suppose.

          it did make some sense, because Kennedy was already counting on a second term and vowed, if elected, to pull out troops from Viet Nam.

  • Rick

    There isn’t going to be any crash until the Fed and all other central banks around the world stop propping up the markets They have thier plung protection teams throwing somewhere around 200 billion of new money a month at the markets to the keep going north!

    • socalbeachdude

      The Federal Reserve has nothing whatsoever to do with the stock markets.

  • TOUJOURS DEMAIN

    I think I will have some licorice taffy and a cup of coffee.

    • socalbeachdude

      If you’re into black, try some tasty Beluga Caviar.

      • TOUJOURS DEMAIN

        I’m more of a vanilla fan.

    • Just Wondering

      What kind of coffee? Kopi Luwak? Jamaican Blue Mountain? Kona?

  • socalbeachdude

    Nobody is going back to any “barter system” at all.

    • latetotheparty

      Some people have never left the barter system. There are people that live out in the country away from big cities who grow food and weed, then trade their produce directly for goods and services. I’ve witnessed the transactions personally. So your blanket statements don’t work.

      • socalbeachdude

        Those sorts of crazy people are irrelevant.

  • socalbeachdude

    The Federal Reserve totally ended its QE programs on October 31, 2014 and they never had anything whatsoever to do with the stock markets and were used exclusively to purchase EXISTING SECURITIES, specifically MBS instruments and US Treasuries from member banks with 100% of the PROCEEDS BEING DEPOSITED INSIDE THE FEDERAL RESERVE IN THE RESERVES ACCOUNTS OF MEMBER BANKS THERE from whom the Federal Reserve purchased those securities.

  • Arthur Wholeflaffers

    I hate to bust your bubble (pun intended) the market not only will NOT collapse, but it will keep marching upward. The prediction by financial magazines over the years was it was going all the up to 25,000. It is about 85% there now. We aren’t talking about small investors, the market is controlled by billionaires and trillion dollar investment firms. It has nothing to do how the economy is doing. Short of a cataclysm, the market will continue to rise, probably forever.

    • socalbeachdude

      Laughably false. Many stocks are now ALREADY COLLAPSING and have been doing so over the past year in increasing numbers and severity. The market indices are now being held up by only a TINY HANDFUL OF ABSURDLY OVERVALUED STOCKS and when they run out of a SUPPLY OF GREATER FOOLS, then the whole “markets” perceptions and prices come crashing down.

      According to Goldman, a mere 10 stocks — 10 stocks — account for almost half the S&P’s gains for the year

      Forty-six percent, to be precise.

      This year’s bull’s-eye stocks are the so-called FAANGs — Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google.

      Rounding out the top 10 are Visa… Philip Morris… Oracle… Home Depot… and Broadcom.

      Most other stocks are zeroes — or worse.

      David Stockman in yesterday’s reckoning:

      “During the last 70 days, the FAANGs have gained $260 billion in value, while the other 495 companies in the S&P 500 have lost an identical amount… Other than the five FAANG stocks, the market has been silently collapsing since March 1.”

      Meanwhile, recent data from Fundstrat Global Advisors reveal that just 40 stocks out of 500 — 8%, that is — account for some 85% of the S&P’s gains this year.

      https://dailyreckoning.com/new-financial-weapons-mass-destruction/

  • aldownunder

    Just wondering
    Do you or have you ever been employed by the Fed or US government

    • socalbeachdude

      You can address me as Mr. Bernanke. Thank you very much.

      • aldownunder

        Ha Ha

      • socalbeachdude

        FAKE IMPOSTOR POSTER.

      • socalbeachdude

        Bonkers Ben was a clueless imbecile.

    • socalbeachdude

      No. Never.

  • socalbeachdude

    HOW STOCK PRICES CRASH…

    Equities (stock) markets are merely EXCHANGE CLEARANCE MECHANISMS BETWEEN BUYERS AND SELLERS OF EQUITIES. The value of any and all stocks at any given time is ONLY WHAT A BUYER IS WILLING TO PAY A SELLER TO BUY SHARES OWNED BY THE SELLER.

    As sellers outnumber buyers on any stock the price of that stock axiomatically falls correspondingly and the amount of money any buyer is willing to pay a seller becomes lower and lower until a price is reached at which the next buyer is willing to part with their money to the seller to purchase a stock. Market capitalizations (the total value of all outstanding shares of particular stocks times their market valuation per share) fall accordingly.

    When stock markets crash it is because of an EXCESS AMOUNT OF SELLERS COMPARED TO BUYERS and the bid prices for stocks plunge as sell orders go unfilled until they drop to lower prices. When sell orders substantially exceed buy orders then the MARKET MAKERS assigned to each stock have to step in and buy stocks on their own accounts to support clearance of stock sell orders. In the first case above, money to clear stock sales and cash out the sellers comes from other buyers in the markets. In the second case above, money to clear stock sales comes from the MARKET MAKERS from their own cash accounts.

  • JC Teecher

    News flash—– The White House Leakers, have leaked the news, that they, the leakers, have been identified as leakers. WOW!
    Imagine that.

    the porky pol pot of NK, has been launching his proverbial bottle rockets into the Sea of Japan so often lately, it just gets passed off as another punk playing with his fireworks.

    The USS Nimitz, one of the world’s largest warships, will join two other supercarriers, the USS Carl Vinson and the USS Ronald Reagan, in the western Pacific.
    Now I don’t know about you folks, but I think if Kim jung un, “un”, as in uneducated, would see and understand that his azz is about to be lit up, he would stop the fireworks displays for a while.
    One more bluff, and I think we will see destruction like has not been seen since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. To top that off, a string of refugees flooding into China and south Korea, that will make the Syrian refugees look like a small herd of wildebeasts crossing Africa.

    • socalbeachdude

      There will be no conflict at all with North Korea.

  • Richard O. Mann

    No matter how hard you try, the Fed will not go away unless the whole world goes into a full blown crash and burn. So far, everyone who has opposed the Fed, turns up dead. It is too big, too powerful, and in control of the world’s economy. Get ready for the fun and games when the bottom falls out. This one may make the great depression of the 30’s look like good times.

    • socalbeachdude

      Nobody at all has “turned up dead” for opposing the Federal Reserve, and it is certainly is not in any way “in control of the world’s economy” and is just a central bank which is in the process of reducing its $4.4 trillion balance sheet by around 50% over the coming year to around $2.2 trillion in a global economy which now exceeds $72 trillion.

      • aldownunder

        Is that what your Boss told you? Ben

        • socalbeachdude

          Those are simply the ACTUAL FACTS.

          • aldownunder

            Although I often enjoy your informative and interesting posts I can’t understand your admiration of the Fed

          • socalbeachdude

            I don’t know what more – or less – you could possibly want the Federal Reserve to do. It’s primary job is interbank clearance of transactions and it does an absolutely stellar job at that and with everything else it does. About the only thing the Federal Reserve does that is of NO IMPORTANCE AT ALL is to set 3 interest rates none of which have anything at all to do with the US economy and yet that trivial little matter appears to be all that most in the financial world has any interest at all in as to the Federal Reserve.

  • socalbeachdude

    The Federal Reserve has NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH THE STOCK MARKETS AND NEVER HAS HAD ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE STOCK MARKETS.

    Not a single penny of funds from the Federal Reserve ever went into the stock markets or ever goes into the stock markets.

    QE HAS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE STOCK MARKETS and it effectively ended on November 1, 2014.

    FEDERAL RESERVE VERSION OF QE EXPLAINED:

    1) Federal Reserve buys securities from banks

    2) Federal Reserve deposits cash proceeds in excess reserves accounts of those banks at the Federal Reserve

    3) Securities stay parked on assets side of Federal Reserve GL

    4) Proceeds funds stay parked on liabilities side of Federal Reserve GL in the excess reserves accounts of the banks at the Federal Reserve

    The process is an ENTIRELY CLOSED LOOP just as if it were done inside a VACUUM.

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_fedfinancials.htm

    The QE funds are sitting parked in the excess reserves accounts of the banks and none of them ever got into the economy at all as is clearly established by the evidence on that matter. The total amounts in those excess reserves accounts now exceeds $2.5 trillion.

  • socalbeachdude

    Absolutely false. Ann Brown is a lovely and gracious lady who is very modest and charming and doesn’t run around flashing her bazookas around shamefully as is the case with Mrs. Donald J. Trump.

  • socalbeachdude

    The “Everything Bubble”

    That is what economist John Hussman calls it. Here is the chart he uses, which includes most of the major categories of the S&P 500 index. It doesn’t include the rise this year, which has now brought the market to the edge of a “Super Bubble.”

    http://bertdohmen.com/the-everything-bubble/?utm_source=BD&utm_campaign=The_Everything_Bubble&cmp=1&utm_medium=HTMLEmail

  • socalbeachdude

    Fed forecasts rate hike ‘soon,’ details plan to trim balance sheet

    Most members of the Federal Reserve believe they should raise interest rates “soon” as long as the economy continues to rebound from a surprising bout of weakness in the first quarter, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May 2-3 meeting showed.

    The minutes, which were released Wednesday afternoon, showed some central bankers were still watching for evidence that a recent slowdown in growth is temporary and that inflation is heating up before committing to another interest rate hike. But if economic data comes in as expected, the Fed could raise rates when it meets on June 13-14, a move markets have generally been anticipating.

    The minutes also contained details of how the Fed might reduce the massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet it accumulated by purchasing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities during the recession. Central bankers expressed preference for a plan that would let the assets gradually mature but every three months decrease the amount the Fed reinvests in these purchases, leading to a predictable and orderly reduction.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/24/fed-minutes-sound-note-of-caution-about-june-rate-hike/?utm_term=.115c2777225f

  • socalbeachdude

    BANKS NOW DOING WELL FINANCIALLY IN US…

    Press Release
    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
    May 24, 2017 Media Contact:
    Julianne Fisher Breitbeil
    (202) 898-6895
    Email: jbreitbeil@fdic.gov

    FDIC-Insured Institutions Earn $44 Billion in First Quarter 2017
    Community Bank Net Income Rises to $5.6 Billion

    Quarterly Net Income Is 12.7 Percent Higher than a Year Earlier
    Community Bank Net Income Rises 10.4 Percent from a Year Ago
    Annual Loan Growth Rate Slows to 4 Percent, On Par With Nominal GDP Growth
    “Problem Bank List” Falls to 9-Year Low

    “The banking industry reported largely positive results for the first quarter, but the operating environment continues to pose challenges for banks.”
    — FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg

    Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $44 billion in the first quarter of 2017, up $5 billion (12.7 percent) from a year earlier. The increase in earnings was mainly attributable to an $8.8 billion (7.8 percent) increase in net interest income and a $2.1 billion (3.4 percent) increase in noninterest income. Financial results for the first quarter of 2017 are included in the FDIC’s latest Quarterly Banking Profile released today.

    Of the 5,856 insured institutions reporting first quarter financial results, 57 percent reported year-over-year growth in quarterly earnings. The proportion of banks that were unprofitable in the first quarter fell to 4.1 percent from 5.1 percent a year earlier.

    http://www.FDIC.gov

  • JC Teecher

    I’ve got so much white space, from blocking idiots, and I love it.
    First it was snodtbox, and gsob, and then gay vet, and sbd, and now obi wan Carl.
    The list will grow eventually, but for now, the white noise is like golden silence.

    • Orange

      What a boring world you must live in.

      • socalbeachdude

        Not to mention mega-ignorant!

        • JC Teecher

          You wish, but I have your number, and see your future life, which is pretty bleak from where i am sitting. Especially since you are on a very unstable footing; both in your spiritual ignorance and your physical world.
          You are consumed with yourself in your little keyboard world and basically, besides the drugs, you ain’t got a whole lot worth living for. When the grid goes down, sbd and your pathetic little social world goes down with it. bye bye black bird.

          • socalbeachdude

            Go buy a clue somewhere dude.

      • JC Teecher

        You would be surprised, how un-boring it is.

        • Orange

          Socalbeachdude forgot to mention easily offended. Hence the BORING plain white walls. Do you need a safe place? Careful how you answer this. It might be rather revealing.

          • JC Teecher

            Wrong by a mile. A suffer not the ramblings of fools and heathens.
            hence why you have just made the same list….hahaha waaaaya!

    • JC Teecher

      Oh yea, I forgot about Carrie the liberal licker.

  • socalbeachdude

    That jacket looks like a 51 cents Goodwill discard and I wouldn’t even pay 39 cents for that piece of garbage. That jacket is indeed VERY CHEAP LOOKING just like Melania. Sad to say. Money doesn’t buy taste at all.

  • socalbeachdude

    Absolutely false and extremely ignorant.

  • Carl

    Thanks for the clarification! 🙂

  • Realist

    Don’t forget to UPVOTE yourself. Hahahhaha!!!!

  • socalbeachdude

    All interest rates that matter in the US economy are set in the US TREASURIES MARKETS which are the largest bond markets in the world and in which more than $7 trillion new US Treasuries are issued each year and in which more than $12.8 trillion of Treasuries change hands. All interest rates in the US economy – including the only 3 interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are KEYED OFF THE YIELDS (INTEREST RATES) established by the US Treasuries markets. The only 3 interest rates set by the Federal Reserve have nothing to do with the US economy and it doesn’t matter a hoot what they are.

  • socalbeachdude

    The Federal Reserve on sets 3 interest rates and has no control whatsoever of any interest rates across any other assets at all and never has as those are all established by the US Treasuries markets from which all interest rates that matter in the US economy are keyed by banks and other financial institutions.

    The only 3 rates that the Federal Reserve is involved with setting are:

    1) Federal Discount Rate – currently 1.50%

    2) Federal Funds Rate (which it influences) – currently in the range of 0.75% to 1.00%

    3) Federal Reserve IOER (Interest On Excess Reserves) – currently 1.00%

    Regulations T and U of the Federal Reserve have NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with interest rates and both relate to MARGIN REQUIREMENTS on stock purchases bought with borrowed funds.

  • socalbeachdude

    Laughably false.

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