The Economy

The Wheels Have Started To Come Off For The U.S. Economy, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

August 4, 2024August 4, 2024 by Michael

For a long time, there was a lot of denial about the direction that the U.S. economy was heading. The Biden administration and the mainstream media just kept insisting that everything was just fine even though everyone could clearly see that it wasn’t. But now reality is setting in. Last week we got some numbers that Wall Street really didn’t like, and a massive temper tantrum ensued. The panic that we witnessed on Friday was quite breathtaking, and many are concerned that it could bleed over into the new week. Investors are desperate for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but so far the Fed has not moved.

On Friday, many were surprised when the employment numbers were much worse than anticipated…

U.S. job growth cooled sharply in July while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to the highest level in nearly three years.

The Labor Department on Friday reported that employers added 114,000 jobs in July, missing the 175,000 gain forecast by LSEG economists. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly inched higher to 4.3% against expectations that it would hold steady at 4.1%.

It marked the highest level for the jobless rate since October 2021.

Please keep in mind that the U.S. economy must produce at least 150,000 new jobs each month just to keep up with population growth.

So even if we did add 114,000 jobs last month, we would still be losing ground.

But the only reason why the official figure showed an addition of 114,000 jobs last month is because the birth/death model added 246,000 jobs to the final number…

Of course, we can’t possibly forget that every jobs number is highly manipulated and rigged, and July was no difference with the Birth/Death model adding a ridiculous 246K “statistical” jobs to the unadjusted print. Which it does not translate apples to apples, one can confidently say that the actual adjusted payrolls number would be far, far smaller had it not been for this ongoing fabrication.

It isn’t difficult to get a positive employment report every month when you are “adjusting” the final number by about a quarter of a million jobs that you just “assume” are being created somehow.

In any event, even if we take the government’s report at face value, the Sahm Rule has still been officially triggered…

That’s because the rise in unemployment triggered the so-called Sahm Rule, an indicator that is used to provide an early recession signal. The rule stipulates that a recession is likely when the three-month moving average of the jobless rate is at least a half-percentage point higher than the 12-month low.

Over the past three months, the unemployment rate has averaged 4.13%, which is 0.63 percentage points higher than the 3.5% rate recorded in July 2023. The Sahm Rule has successfully predicted every recession since 1970.

Even though this indicator has successfully predicted every single recession since 1970, Fed Chair Jerome Powell insists that it may not be correct this time around…

Fed Chair Jerome Powell responded to a question about the rule at a news conference Wednesday following the Fed’s decision to keep the key interest rate unchanged. “It’s not like an economic rule where it’s telling you something must happen.” He continued, “what we think we’re seeing is a normalizing labor market and we’re watching carefully to see if it turns out to be more.”

Unfortunately, it appears to be inevitable that the unemployment rate will go even higher because large companies all over America continue to shed workers.

In fact, last week Intel announced that it will be “cutting 15% of its workforce”…

Months after the federal government gave Intel $8.5 billion in grants to help bring back chipmaking to the U.S., the company said it is cutting 15% of its workforce, which translates to around 17,000 jobs.

The tech company announced the job cuts as part of a massive cost-cutting and restructuring plan.

Of course Intel is far from alone.

Businesses from coast to coast have fallen on hard times, and business bankruptcy filings have risen by more than 40 percent during the past 12 months…

Over the past year, business bankruptcy filings are up 40.3 percent, and have now reached a number not seen since the second quarter of 2020, at the peak of lockdowns. American households are following along, with total bankruptcy filings up 16.2 percent in the past year, including 132,710 new filings in the second quarter of 2024 alone.

The last time business bankruptcy filings were this high was during the lockdowns in the early days of the COVID pandemic.

But we don’t have any lockdowns to blame the current wave of bankruptcies on.

What we are witnessing now is really quite scary.

Hordes of businesses are failing, and commercial real estate values have been crashing hard…

Brookfield owned Gas Company Tower in Downtown LA has plummeted over $400M in value

The skyscraper was recently valued at $214.5M

It was appraised at $632M just 3 years ago

This is a commercial real estate apocalypse

Right now, our banks are sitting on gigantic mountains of commercial real estate loans that have gone bad.

For many of those banks, it is just a matter of time before they go belly up.

But don’t just take my word for it. Recently, a number of prominent experts have been warning that a tsunami of bank failures is on the way…

The echoes began in May.

Barry Sternlicht of Starwood Capital Group predicted a regional bank failure “every day or every week.”

Days later, Newmark Chair Howard Lutnick warned, “Every single weekend a regional bank is going to go bye-bye,” and predicted 500 to 1,000 failures in 2025 and 2026 — as did alternative lenders speaking at the same event. In June, PIMCO’s head of global private commercial real estate joined the chorus.

Yes, this is really happening.

A tremendous amount of financial chaos is in our future, and most people are going to be completely blindsided by it.

There is one thing that the Federal Reserve could do to mitigate the damage.

If the Fed started cutting interest rates immediately, that would certainly help.

But so far, the Fed has refused to budge.

We are being told that the Fed “might” give us a rate cut in September.

That isn’t going to do the job.

We need help now, because major problems are already starting to erupt all around us.

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written seven other books that are available on Amazon.com including “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing. You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter. Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites. These are such troubled times, and people need hope. John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.” If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

Wall Street Is Starting To Freak Out About The Horrendous State Of The U.S. Economy

August 1, 2024 by Michael

It looks like investors are starting to figure it out. Bad economic numbers continue to come pouring in, but so far the Federal Reserve has refused to pull the trigger on a rate cut. We have seen this story before, and it never ends well. It is often said that “he who hesitates is lost”, and in this case the Fed’s hesitation could mean a tremendous amount of economic pain during the months ahead. On Thursday, Wall Street responded to the Fed’s inaction by throwing a bit of a temper tantrum. At one point the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 744 points, and it closed the session down 494 points…

The Dow dropped 494.82 points, or 1.21%, to end at 40,347.97. At its session lows, the 30-stock index lost 744.22 points, or about 1.8%. The S&P 500 shed 1.37% to end at 5,446.68, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 2.3% to 17,194.15. The Russell 2000 index, the small-cap benchmark that has rallied lately, dropped 3%.

Many still believe that the Fed will give us a rate cut in September.

But there are others that are concerned that “the Fed may not be acting quickly enough to keep America’s job market in good shape”…

The narrative on Wall Street is shifting.

Traders have long placed their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell basically confirmed as much Wednesday.

That rate cut, expected in six weeks, was priced in to stocks, which have been rising over the past few months in hopes of a cut. Rate cuts tend to juice stocks, because they lower borrowing costs for businesses and can help boost profits.

But now, fear is starting to take hold, as concerns mount that the Fed may not be acting quickly enough to keep America’s job market in good shape.

Economist Claudia Sahm is one prominent expert that is deeply alarmed by the Fed’s lack of action.

Considering all of the troubling numbers that we have seen in recent days, she is wondering what they are waiting for…

If the Federal Reserve is starting to set the table for interest rate reductions, some parts of the market are getting impatient for dinner to be served.

“What is it they’re looking for?” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said on CNBC just after the Fed concluded its meeting Wednesday. “The bar is getting set pretty high and that really doesn’t make a lot of sense. The Fed needs to start that process back gradually to normal, which means gradually reducing interest rates.”

DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is using even stronger language.

He says that the Fed is risking a recession by not making a move now…

DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach also thinks the Fed is risking recession by holding a hard line on rates.

“That’s exactly what I think because I’ve been at this game for over 40 years, and it seems to happen every single time,” Gundlach said, speaking to CNBC’s Scott Wapner on “Closing Bell” on Wednesday. “All the other underlying aspects of employment data are not improving. They’re deteriorating. And so once it starts to get to that upper level, where they have to start cutting rates, it is going to be more than they think.”

Of course there are many numbers that seem to indicate that we may already be in the early stages of a new recession.

For example, earlier today we learned that the ISM manufacturing index was in contraction territory once again last month…

The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing PMI registered 46.8% last month, indicating industry economic activity contracted at a faster rate when compared to June’s figure of 48.5%.

“After breaking a 16-month streak of contraction by expanding in March, the manufacturing sector has contracted the last four months,” says Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing business survey committee.

In addition, initial applications for unemployment benefits jumped to the highest level in about a year last week…

New economic data revealed that first-time applications for jobless benefits rose last week to an estimated 249,000 filings. That’s the highest tally since last August, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, continuing claims, filed by people who have received unemployment benefits for at least a week, jumped to 1.877 million. That’s the highest level since November 2021.

Sadly, a lot more layoffs are coming as thousands upon thousands of businesses get into very serious trouble all over the nation.

This week, we learned that a furniture retailer that had survived the Great Depression, the Great Recession and the COVID pandemic is closing all 380 of their stores and filing for bankruptcy…

A 120-year-old furniture chain will shutter all 380 stores after its parent company filed for bankruptcy — the latest brick-and-mortar business to buckle from high overhead costs and massive debt.

Badcock Home Furniture & More, which has stores throughout the South, announced a “going out of business” sale Tuesday.

The company was purchased last year by Conn’s, a Texas-based furniture retailer, which filed for bankruptcy last week.

After 120 years, this is how it ends.

Of course there are lots of other retailers that have also been going belly up this year…

Other furniture chains, including Bob’s Stores, Z Gallerie and Mitchell Gold + Bob Williams, filed for bankruptcy this year.

Overall, US retailers had announced the closure of almost 2,600 stores in 2024.

If the U.S. economy really is in “good shape” like the mainstream media is insisting, then why is this happening?

In my opinion, we are experiencing the leading edge of an economic storm which will greatly intensify during the second half of 2024.

And the outlook for 2025 is absolutely dismal.

So what should you do about all of this?

In the short-term, protect your assets and build up a sizable emergency fund. No matter what happens, you are going to need to have enough money to pay your bills.

In the long-term, I am entirely convinced that we are going to experience the most painful period in our entire history.

Our leaders have been making incredibly bad decisions for decades, and now we have entered a time when the consequences of those decisions will become obvious to all of us.

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

This Is What The Final Stages Of A Bubble Economy Look Like Just Before A Collapse Happens

July 29, 2024July 29, 2024 by Michael

How does it feel to be living on the edge of a bubble just before it bursts? Ever since the days of the Great Recession, our leaders have been going to extremes that we have never seen before as they attempt to keep our failing economy propped up. The Federal Reserve has created trillions upon trillions of dollars out of thin air and pumped it into the financial system. Our politicians in Washington have been on the greatest debt binge in the history of the world, and as a result our national debt has soared to truly horrifying levels. On Monday, our national debt reached 35 trillion dollars, and even the New York Times is admitting that it is growing “more quickly than many economists had predicted”…

America’s gross national debt topped $35 trillion for the first time on Monday, a reminder of the nation’s grim fiscal predicament as legislative fights over taxes and spending initiatives loom in Washington.

The Treasury Department noted the milestone in its daily report detailing the nation’s balance sheet. The red ink is mounting in the United States more quickly than many economists had predicted as the costs of federal programs enacted in recent years have exceeded initial projections.

To mark this milestone, the House Budget Committee released some numbers about how rapidly our debt has been growing over the last 12 months…

$196 billion in new debt per month
$6.4 billion in new debt per day
$268 million in new debt per hour
$4.5 million in new debt per minute
$74,401 in new debt per second

The third number in that list really stands out to me.

268 million dollars is being stolen from future generations of Americans every single hour of every single day, and hardly anyone seems to care.

We are literally committing national suicide.

When a government borrows money which must be paid back later, prosperity in the future is being sacrificed for more prosperity in the present.

We were 10 trillion dollars in debt when Barack Obama entered the White House, and now we are 35 trillion dollars in debt. We have literally destroyed the bright future that our children and our grandchildren were supposed to have, but all of this borrowing has allowed us to enjoy a standard of living that is far higher than what we actually deserve.

Unfortunately, we have reached a point where economic conditions are steadily getting worse even though our government continues to pile up mountains of new debt.

According to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, homelessness in the U.S. has been growing by an average of about 10 percent a year since the pandemic ended…

According to data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), since the end of the pandemic, we have experienced an average of 10% a year growth in homelessness. By the end of 2023, the U.S. hit its highest reported level in history since they began tracking it in 2007.

That same report says that the four states that have the largest problems with homelessness are California, New York, Florida and Washington…

The largest populations of homeless people are mainly in four states: California, New York, Florida and Washington. New Hampshire and New Mexico saw the largest increases in homeless people, with 52% and 50% respectively. New York came in third, moving up by 39% since the last survey.

In addition to growing homelessness, we are also seeing poverty and hunger rise all over the nation…

Combined data released last month from federal agencies found the U.S. is facing growing rates of poverty and food insecurity. In 2023, more than 12% of the nation was living below the poverty line and nearly 13% said they didn’t have enough to eat. Ann Oliva, CEO of the National Alliance to End Homelessness, said, “More people are becoming homeless for the first time.” This increase is due to people becoming un-housed faster. “They have no place to go so they end up on the streets.”

Our national debt has gone from 10 trillion dollars to 35 trillion dollars since Barack Obama first entered the White House, and our economy is still crumbling.

This represents an epic failure of historic proportions.

We have accumulated the largest mountain of debt in the history of the world, and most of the population is still struggling.

But all of this money has created an immensely painful cost of living crisis.

Today, there are six major U.S. cities where you will only be able to live a middle class lifestyle even though you are making $200,000 a year…

Earning $200,000 a year might seem like enough to live a life of luxury.

But in six of the 25 biggest US metros, rampant inflation in the past two years means this six-figure salary is only enough to be middle class.

Of course the vast majority of Americans will never make $200,000 a year.

In fact, most Americans are just barely scraping by.

As I discussed last week, one recent survey discovered that 71 percent of U.S. adults are stressed out about their “ability to afford everyday expenses”…

71% of Americans say they’re stressed by their ability to afford everyday expenses.

Americans most regularly spend money on groceries, phone bills, utilities, gasoline and rent/mortgage payments.

Grocery bills frustrate Americans more than any other regular expense. Utilities, rent/mortgage payments, gasoline and insurance payments round out the top five most annoying expenses.

Are you constantly stressed out about your finances?

If so, you certainly aren’t alone.

Unfortunately, things are only going to get worse from here.

Decades of incredibly foolish decisions have set the stage for a colossal collapse.

The bubble we have been riding will inevitably burst, and once that occurs the consequences will be absolutely excruciating.

Here in 2024, red flags are popping up on an almost daily basis. For example, shares of Ford Motor Company recently plummeted by 18 percent on a single day due to very disappointing results…

The last time shares of Ford Motor dropped by more than 18% in a day, as they did last week, the U.S. automotive industry was on the brink of bankruptcy during the Great Recession.

Ford, which avoided bankruptcy in 2008-2009, is far from any sort of such disaster, but the freefall in shares after the company missed Wall Street’s earnings expectations is the leading example of the uphill battle automakers face for the remainder of the year.

As conditions get even worse during the second half of this year and beyond, our leaders will attempt to stabilize things by doing even more of what they have already been doing.

But that will just make the cost of living crisis even worse, and it will just make our long-term problems even worse.

Of course our long-term problems are rapidly becoming our short-term problems.

The entire system is convulsing with tremors, and our bubble economy is slowly but surely heading toward a date with oblivion.

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

The Percentage Of Americans That Worry They Won’t Be Able To Pay Their Bills Is Higher Than It Was During The Great Recession

July 23, 2024July 23, 2024 by Michael

Do you remember how painful the Great Recession was? 2008 and the years immediately following were definitely a very dark chapter in our history, but a new study has actually found that the percentage of Americans that worry they won’t be able to pay their bills is actually higher today than it was back then. Slowly but surely, our economic strength has been fading and our standard of living has been falling. Unfortunately, now we have reached a point where a very large portion of the U.S. population is really struggling. According to a CNN poll that was just released, almost 40 percent of all U.S. adults “say they worry most or all of the time that their family’s income won’t be enough to meet expenses”…

Many Americans regularly worry they won’t be able to make ends meet.

Nearly four in ten (39%) of US adults say they worry most or all of the time that their family’s income won’t be enough to meet expenses, according to a new CNN poll. That’s up from 28% who expressed those concerns in December 2021, and it’s similar to the numbers seen during the Great Recession (37%).

To cope, significant shares of Americans said they are adding side jobs, cutting down on driving and putting more expenses on credit cards.

If you would have asked me before I saw the results, I would have been quite confident that the number during the Great Recession would have been higher than the number in 2024.

Just like everyone else, I remember the Great Recession as such a painful time.

Sadly, the economic pain that we are experiencing now is just beginning.

Ordinary Americans from coast to coast are being absolutely crushed by rising prices, and that isn’t going to change any time soon.

In an article that CNN posted about this new survey, one woman that works for the CDC admitted that she was recently forced to move because costs have risen so aggressively…

“The grocery store is just outrageous right now. But it’s not just that. Everything has gone up. Clothing. My insurance,” said Angela Russell, an Ohio resident who works as a program analyst at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Russell, who has two adult children and three grandkids, said she recently moved out of her rental home in Cincinnati in favor of one in a rural area where the rent is cheaper.

Other recent surveys have come up with results that are even more alarming.

For example, one discovered that a whopping 71 percent of Americans are stressed out about their “ability to afford everyday expenses”…

71% of Americans say they’re stressed by their ability to afford everyday expenses.

Americans most regularly spend money on groceries, phone bills, utilities, gasoline and rent/mortgage payments.

Grocery bills frustrate Americans more than any other regular expense. Utilities, rent/mortgage payments, gasoline and insurance payments round out the top five most annoying expenses.

That is most of the country.

Unsurprisingly, younger generations are being hit particularly hard by the pain of inflation…

Financial stress levels are highest among millennials (77%), followed by Generation Z (75%) and Generation X (74%). Baby boomers reported experiencing the least financial stress, although at 59% it was still more than half of those surveyed.

Those that follow my work regularly know that I tend to rant about rising prices at the grocery store.

Sometimes it is hard for me to believe that prices have gotten so high, and it appears that a lot of people out there agree with me.

Another recent survey found that 80 percent of Americans have observed a “notable increase” in grocery store prices…

According to a study by Qualtrics on behalf of Intuit Credit Karma, 80% of Americans say they have felt a “notable increase” in grocery costs in recent years. More than a quarter of respondents said the increased cost has led them to occasionally skip meals, while about one-third said they spend more than 60% of their monthly income on mandatory expenses such as food, utilities and rent.

Food has certainly become ridiculously expensive, but we actually spend far more money on housing.

Today, the typical household spends about 12 percent of total income on food and about 33 percent of total income on housing…

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the top three annual expenses for the average American household in 2022 (the most recent data available) were housing (33.3%), transportation (16.8%) and food (12.8%).

For most Americans, spending money in these areas is unavoidable.

Housing costs have been rising much faster than the overall rate of inflation, and we just learned that home prices reached yet another new all-time record high last month…

Home prices hit a new high in June for the second straight month, the latest sign that the housing market is unaffordable to millions of Americans.

The spring home-buying season, usually the busiest time of year for the housing market, was a dud this year. Home sales declined in June for the fourth straight time on a monthly basis. The combination of high prices and elevated mortgage rates has made homeownership less attractive to renters and deterred current homeowners from moving.

Meanwhile, homelessness in the United States is at the highest level ever recorded and it has been growing at the fastest pace ever recorded.

We just can’t keep going on like this.

Something has to give.

It appears to be inevitable that all of this economic pain will have a dramatic impact on the upcoming election. At this point, approximately three out of every five Americans believe that we are already in a recession right now…

You don’t need to be a financial genius to know that times are tough for plenty of Americans. With that in mind, a majority of people actually think the economy is doing even worse than the “experts” say it is. Three in five people believe that the U.S. is currently in a recession, even though we’re not officially in one according to the financial definition.

The survey of 2,000 Americans explored what’s driving this lack of consumer confidence in the economy. Inflation and the rising cost of living (68%) top the list of reasons why respondents believe the U.S. is in a recession, followed by friends and family members complaining about money (50%).

It is not an accident that this has happened.

For more than a decade, people like me have been relentlessly warning that the decisions that our leaders were making would have disastrous consequences, and that is exactly what has happened.

And if we stay on the path that we are on, it won’t be too long before we witness a meltdown of absolutely epic proportions.

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

We Haven’t Seen A “Historic Surge” Of Corporate Bankruptcies Like This Since The Great Recession

July 10, 2024 by Michael

We continue to get numbers that indicate that the U.S. economy is steamrolling in the wrong direction as we approach the most chaotic election season in our history. Needless to say, the performance of the economy is going to play a major role in the outcome of the election, because millions upon millions of Americans are really suffering right now. Homelessness has been growing at the fastest pace ever recorded, hunger and poverty are exploding, and we are in the midst of a cost of living crisis that doesn’t seem to have any end in sight. Unfortunately, there are signs that things will soon get even worse. For example, we experienced a “historic surge” of corporate bankruptcies during the first half of this year that was worse than anything we have witnessed since the first half of 2010…

There is a “historic surge” of corporate bankruptcies underway in the U.S., as debt-saddled companies struggle to adjust to the new era of high interest rates.

New figures published by S&P Global Intelligence show that 75 companies filed for bankruptcy in June, the highest number recorded in a single month since early 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. That pushed this year’s total number of bankruptcies so far to 346, which is notably higher than comparable levels seen in the past 13 years.

Before this, the highest half-year figure recorded was in 2010, with 437 companies filing for bankruptcy from January through June.

During the first half of 2010, we were just coming out of the Great Recession.

Do you remember how painful things were in those days?

Sadly, I believe that what is ahead of us will be even more painful.

The unprecedented measures that our leaders took to prop up the economy worked for a while, but now cracks are starting to show all over the place.

And a lot more big businesses will go belly up during the months ahead.

Earlier today, I was quite saddened to learn that Big Lots is on the verge of bankruptcy…

Discount retail chain Big Lots said it will close up to 40 stores this year and may declare bankruptcy.

The Columbus, Ohio-based company wrote in a quarterly Securities and Exchange Commission filing it expected further operating losses and has “substantial doubt” it can continue as a functioning business.

Big Lots last month reported a net loss of $205 million in the quarter ending May 4, 2024.

When I lived in Virginia many years ago, I would shop at Big Lots quite a bit.

And it always seemed to be doing fairly well.

But now times have changed.

Today, most Americans have very little discretionary income. In fact, surveys have shown that the vast majority of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck at this point…

A 2023 survey conducted by Payroll.org highlighted that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, a 6% increase from the previous year. In other words, more than three-quarters of Americans struggle to save or invest after paying for their monthly expenses.

Similarly, a 2023 Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerning—reported that their income doesn’t even cover their standard expenses (29%).

There is no way to spin those numbers in a positive manner.

Any way that you look at them, they are absolutely horrible.

The middle class is being ripped to shreds, and those that are running the system seem to be all out of answers.

Young adults in particular are having a very difficult time in this environment.

According to a survey that was recently conducted by Bank of America, almost half of all adult members of Generation Z “are relying on financial help from their parents and family members”…

A new survey by Bank of America finds that nearly half of adult members of Gen Z are relying on financial help from their parents and family members to get by.

The survey for Bank of America’s Better Money Habits team found that 46% of Gen Z are receiving financial assistance from their parents or other family members, a figure that declines to 30% for Gen Z non-students.

Have you noticed that so many young adults seem to be very bitter and very angry these days?

This is one of the big reasons why they are in such a foul mood.

Many of them were promised that life would be good if the studied hard, went to college, and did all the right things.

But now many of them are discovering that the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow was just an illusion.

Of course there is a small sliver of society that is still doing exceptionally well.

Flooding the system with trillions upon trillions of dollars has been very good for the financial markets, and those with lots of money in the financial markets have been living the high life.

In Jackson Hole, Wyoming, millionaires are complaining that the town is being ruined by all of the billionaires that are now moving in…

Millionaires once accused of ruining a gorgeous town in Wyoming now complain they are being driven out of the area by billionaires.

Jackson Hole has long been a popular vacation spot for celebrities including Ryan Gosling, Eva Mendes and Matthew McConaughey.

An influx of wealthy people sent house prices sky-rocketing and forced ordinary workers to live on the other side of the mountain on the Idaho-Wyoming border.

There are more billionaires in America today than ever before.

That is the good news.

The bad news is that there are more homeless people in America today than ever before, the ranks of the poor are growing very rapidly, and more Americans are falling out of the middle class with each passing day.

The wealthy may think that all of the wealth that they have piled up will insulate them from the unprecedented chaos that is approaching, but the truth is that a day of reckoning is coming for them too.

In the end, the entire system is going to completely and utterly fail, and those that believed that the party would last forever will be bitterly, bitterly disappointed.

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Just Like This Guy, Our Country Can Only Go Out On A Limb So Far Before It Finally Snaps

July 9, 2024July 9, 2024 by Michael

When you are creeping out on a very high tree limb, everything may seem fine until suddenly the limb snaps and disaster strikes. I think that is a perfect metaphor for what we are facing as a country. Our politicians in Washington have artificially propped up our economy for years by piling up 34 trillion dollars in debt, and the “experts” at the Federal Reserve have artificially propped up the financial markets for years by pumping trillions upon trillions of dollars that they created out of thin air into the system. But now we are so far out on a limb that there is no way back, and there is no safety net below. Ultimately, our fate will be the same as this guy…

Heart-stopping video footage shows the moment a Florida man plummets 60 feet into a creek after a branch he was standing on broke beneath him.

Christopher James Sikes Smalley was enjoying a day at Crystal Springs, a popular swimming spot in Vernon, when a branch he was climbing on snapped.

A clip shows Smalley hanging on to a branch above him with one hand and balancing on top of another.

Suddenly, the branch below Smalley gave way, causing him to fall and hitting other branches before landing in the water.

Fortunately, Smalley was not killed.

But this was a fall that he will never forget for the rest of his life.

I had to write about this, because it reminded me of what so many people out there are going through right now.

Millions of Americans are currently experiencing their own individual “economic collapses”, and that includes a lifelong Democratic in Pennsylvania named Stacey Ellis that was recently interviewed by the BBC…

She has switched stores, cut out brand-name items like Dove soap and Stroehmann bread, and all but said goodbye to her favourite Chick-fil-A sandwich.

Still, Ms Ellis has sometimes turned to risky payday loans (short-term borrowing with high interest rates) as she grapples with grocery prices that have surged 25% since Mr Biden entered office in January 2021.

“Prior to inflation,” she says, “I didn’t have any debt, I didn’t have any credit cards, never applied for like a payday loan or any of those things. But since inflation, I needed to do all those things….I’ve had to downgrade my life completely.”

Have you had to “downgrade” your life too?

If so, you are far from alone.

For example, a 26-year-old security guard in Brooklyn named Dylan Garcia now only eats two times a day because that is all that he can afford…

Dylan Garcia, a 26-year-old security guard from Brooklyn, says he’s never struggled to buy groceries as much as he has now.

Instead of the fresh food and brand-name items he used to enjoy, he now stocks up on ramen noodles and frozen vegetables – and only eats twice a day because he can’t afford more.

At checkout, he routinely uses “buy now, pay later” schemes, which allow him to pay the bill in installments, but have led to mounting debt.

If you can still eat three meals a day, you should be very thankful for what you still have.

Of course it isn’t just food prices that have been soaring.

Housing has become ridiculously unaffordable, and this week we learned that home prices are now higher than ever…

Findings from Redfin show the median U.S. home sale price soared to $397,954 in June – a nearly 5% increase from a year earlier. That marks the highest level on record and the biggest annual increase since March.

The monthly mortgage payment at that price, when accounting for the 6.86% median interest rate for a 30-year mortgage, is now $2,749. That is roughly $88 shy of April’s record, thanks to a slight drop in mortgage rates.

In a desperate attempt to make ends meet, many Americans have been going very deep into debt.

That worked for a while, but now delinquency rates are spiking.

In fact, the percentage of credit card balances that are considered to be in serious delinquency has risen to the highest level in more than a decade…

The flow of credit card debt moving into delinquency hit 8.9% in the first quarter at an annualized rate, above pre-pandemic levels. In fact, the percentage of credit card balances in serious delinquency – payments are at least 90 days late – climbed to its highest level since 2012.

This is an especially dangerous time to be piling up credit card debt, because credit card interest rates have moved into uncharted territory…

Finally, a vivid reminder that once credit card rates go up they almost never go down, in Q2 the average interest rate on credit card accounts rose again, up to 22.76% from 22.63% in Q1 and 1 basis point below the all time high.

While so far consumers have pretended they can afford to pay this interest upon interest, there will come a day when the brick wall will finally be reached and the US consumer’s Wile E Coyote moment will finally come meet its gravitational implosion.

Most people don’t realize this, but there is no federally mandated limit on credit card interest rates.

So these days many credit card companies are just going hog wild.

Some cards now come with a rate of more than 30 percent on unpaid balances, and that is deeply immoral.

Don’t fall into their trap, because the goal of these predators is to bleed you dry.

Many businesses all over America are also reaching a breaking point here in 2024. For instance, one of the largest flooring suppliers in the entire country is on the verge of bankruptcy…

One of America’s biggest flooring suppliers is considering bankruptcy – the latest retailer to face financial problems.

LL Flooring, with 442 stores across 47 states, has seen its sales falling over the past year as Americans cut back on renovating their homes.

And I was deeply saddened to learn that the company that makes Tonka Trucks and Lincoln Logs has now officially filed for bankruptcy…

A toy company behind favorite brands including Tonka, K’nex, and Care Bears has filed for bankruptcy.

Basic Fun also owns Playhut, Fisher Price Classics, Lite Brite and Lincoln Logs, and makes toys for Walmart, Target and amusement parks.

Tonka – famous for its rugged toy trucks – was founded in 1946 and celebrated its 75th birthday two years ago with Shaquille O’Neal.

Meanwhile, Care Bears were one of the biggest toys of the 1980s after being launched at the start of that decade.

For years, the U.S. economy has been creeping farther and farther into the danger zone.

The limb that we are standing on is really starting to make some very alarming noises, but our leaders don’t seem to care.

Sadly, it is only a matter of time before disaster strikes.

If we had made much different choices, we could have ended up with much different results.

Ultimately, we shall reap what we have sown, and that is not going to be pleasant at all.

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

It Now Takes An Annual Income Of $186,000 A Year For Americans To Feel Financially Secure

July 1, 2024 by Michael

According to a stunning new survey that was just released, an annual income of at least $186,000 a year is required in order to feel financially secure in the United States today. Unfortunately, only 6 percent of U.S. adults make that kind of money. So we have a major problem on our hands. The cost of living has become extremely painful, and millions of Americans are stressed out of their minds because their finances are such a mess. Over the past several years we have witnessed an economic shift of epic proportions. The ultra-wealthy have gotten a lot wealthier, the ranks of the poor have exploded, and the middle class has been absolutely eviscerated. In this current economic environment, only a very small segment of the population is living comfortably. The following comes from CBS News…

Americans have a specific annual income in mind for what it would take to feel financially secure, according to a new survey from Bankrate. The magic number? $186,000 per year.

Currently, only 6% of U.S. adults make that amount or more, Bankrate said. The median family income falls between $51,500 and $86,000, according to the latest federal data. Achieving financial security means being able to pay your bills while having enough left over to make some discretionary purchases and put money away for the future, the personal finance site said.

When I was growing up, I thought that anyone that earned more than $100,000 a year was wealthy.

But now it takes an income about five times that size in order to be considered “wealthy”…

Americans have an even higher yardstick for feeling rich. The survey found they believe they would need to earn $520,000 a year to qualify as wealthy — up from their $483,000 response during the same survey last year.

Much of the population is trying as hard as they can, but they will never make the kind of money that they would like to make.

Meanwhile, the cost of living just keeps going higher and higher and higher.

As a result, the percentage of Americans that admit that they are experiencing financial stress just continues to go up…

Many inflation-weary consumers continue to experience financial stress, with a new Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey finding that 35% of Americans are worried about making ends meet, up from 29% a year earlier.

That gap between what the typical American earns and what they aspire to earn means “Americans have their eyes set on this high income, and they think they need to make more money even if they know it’s unrealistic they’ll never make that amount,” Sarah Foster, an analyst at Bankrate, told CBS MoneyWatch.

At this point, even many that are considered to be in “upper-income groups” feel forced to take on extra jobs just to make ends meet…

Americans in upper-income groups are concerned about their ability to pay bills, with more than 15 percent of this demographic taking up additional jobs over the past year, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

As of April 2024, 32.5 percent of respondents earning over $150,000 annually were worried about making ends meet over the next six months, up from 21.7 percent in April of last year, the June survey showed.

This percentage is higher than for those in the income groups of $100,000 to $149,999, $70,000 to $99,999, and $40,000 to $69,999. Only individuals who earned less than $40,000, the lowest income group, were more worried than the $150,000-plus group.

I have never seen numbers like this before.

People are feeling so much anxiety about their finances, and that helps to explain why economic issues are playing such a prominent role in this election cycle.

Some Americans are trying to make ends meet by cutting back anywhere that they can.

For example, the following comes from an NPR article about how Americans are cutting back on charitable giving…

Robert Lang, a longtime cabinetmaker in Cincinnati, used to feel good about giving money to less-fortunate people. These days, however, he’s being forced to be less generous.

“I’m no great humanitarian,” says Lang. “But I feel really good if I can give a homeless guy 20 bucks. And we can’t do that anymore.”

The reason? Rising prices, which have forced Lang to dial back his giving as the 69-year-old tries to make ends meet with Social Security benefits and a part-time job with a furniture-making journal.

When times get tough, people become less generous.

I wish that wasn’t true, but that is just the way that it is.

So what will happen when economic conditions become extremely harsh?

BCA Research chief global strategist Peter Berezin is warning that another recession is coming and that stock prices could soon fall by 30 percent…

There may be trouble looming on the horizon for the U.S. stock market, according to BCA Research.

In a note to clients last week, BCA Research chief global strategist Peter Berezin warned that, contrary to popular belief, the economy will fall into a recession either this year or in early 2025.

Should that happen, the S&P 500 could tumble to 3,750, which marks a 30% drop from current levels.

Will he be proven correct?

I don’t know.

But I do know that it feels like a recession has already arrived to many Americans.

Every day, we get even more bad economic news. For instance, Fox Business just published an article about how major drug store chains are in the process of closing down locations from coast to coast…

Just this week, Walgreens announced that it would close a “significant” number of under performing stores across the U.S. due to ongoing challenges with profitability and declining margins.

Earlier this month, Rite Aid announced that 27 locations in Michigan and Ohio have been added to the growing number of stores it plans to close while it restructures under Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

In large cities all over the nation, thousands upon thousands of commercial properties are now sitting empty.

Of course this is just the start.

As the globe is rocked by one chaotic crisis after another, things will get a whole lot worse.

A “perfect storm” is now upon us, and most people have absolutely no idea how harsh conditions around us will soon become.

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

If The High Cost Of Groceries Makes You Feel Sick, You Are Not Alone

June 30, 2024June 30, 2024 by Michael

If you are really struggling with the high cost of living, I want you to know that you aren’t alone. In recent months, I have been hearing from so many people that feel like they are drowning financially. Have you experienced a palpable sense of panic when you compare your rising bills to the level of income that you are currently bringing in? So many people out there are stressed out of their minds because it has become such a struggle to pay the bills each month. As I discussed a few days ago, a typical U.S. household must now spend $1,069 more a month just to buy the exact same goods and services that it did three years ago. Over the course of an entire year, that is almost an extra $13,000 dollars. Month after month, prices just keep going higher, but those that are running things continue to insist that everything is just fine.

No, everything is not just fine.

Last week, a TikTok video about rising grocery prices at Walmart quickly garnered more than a million views. The person that made the video found a grocery order that he had placed two years ago, and he decided to hit the “Reorder All” button to see what that same order would cost today…

A recent TikTok video has gone viral, showing a user’s surprising experience with Walmart’s grocery prices. The user explained in his video that he tried to use the “Reorder All” button for an order he placed two years ago, which originally cost $126.67. To his shock, the same order would now cost $414.39.

I was quite stunned by this video.

Many of the things that I regularly purchase at the grocery store have doubled or more than doubled in price, but in this case the total cost of the grocery order had more than tripled…

The TikTok (@sewerlidd) explained that the original $126.16 purchase was for a month’s worth of groceries, which included 53 items.

“A whole month of groceries just for me,” he said in the video.

The total was updated to $414.39, almost quadrupling.

“I feel like I’m going to be sick,” he said.

Needless to say, this video has generated a ton of discussion online.

When Walmart was asked about this, they responded by saying that the primary reason there was such a difference is because the person that made the video was attempting to order “discontinued items”…

Walmart representatives have responded, stating that the claims in the video are not accurate. According to them, the discrepancies in prices are due to discontinued items rather than actual inflation.

But this explanation certainly did not satisfy everyone.

Another person hit the “Reorder All” button on an old order, and that order went from $180 back then to $430 today…

Viewers expressed both shock and frustration in the comments.

“Now I feel a little less gaslit about grocery prices because it has gone crazy, and it’s not just me!” wrote one person.

“Walmart, can you explain yourself, please,” added another.

A fellow shopper said they used to spend $180 for two weeks’ worth of groceries and are now spending over $430 for the same amount.

If you think that the price of groceries is not a problem, I have a challenge for you.

Fill up a grocery cart all the way to the very top with items that you typically eat, and try to keep the final bill under 300 dollars.

If you are smart, you can do it, but it won’t be easy.

In the old days, you could buy a used vehicle for 300 dollars.

Now, many people burn through more than 300 dollars in just one trip to the grocery store.

This is just one of the reasons why inflation has become such a huge political issue.

According to Gallup, inflation was not really considered to be an important issue at all prior to 2022…

For the third year in a row, the percentage of Americans naming inflation or the high cost of living as the most important financial problem facing their family has reached a new high. The 41% naming the issue this year is up slightly from 35% a year ago and 32% in 2022. Before 2022, the highest percentage mentioning inflation was 18% in 2008. Inflation has been named by less than 10% in most other readings since the question was first asked in 2005.

The last three years have been an inflationary nightmare, and no matter how much our leaders try to deny it, a lot more inflation is on the way.

Things are particularly bad in our major cities. In fact, it is being reported that Manhattan is the most expensive place to live in the United States by a wide margin…

The New York borough of Manhattan is the most expensive place to live in the U.S. — and the cost of living in the No. 2 place isn’t even close.

The cost of living in Manhattan is more than twice the national average. The second- and third-most expensive places are Honolulu and San Jose, California, but in comparison, they are much more affordable. Manhattan is 24% more expensive than Honolulu and 30% more expensive than San Jose.

It isn’t a big mystery why this is the case.

When our leaders pumped trillions upon trillions of dollars into the system, the financial markets benefitted greatly.

So Manhattan is swimming in cash, and prices there have gone into the stratosphere.

Many of us relentlessly warned about what would happen when our leaders flooded the system with cash, and now we are facing economic distortions that are extremely painful.

For most Americans, prices have been rising much faster than their paychecks.

As a result, our national standard of living has been steadily declining.

And now we have entered a time when it appears that economic conditions are really slowing down.

For example, it is being reported that Ford is preparing for yet another round of layoffs…

Ford Motor is preparing for a new round of layoffs for its salaried workers in the United States, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The company in March last year announced plans to reduce structural costs of up to $3 billion at its gas-powered vehicle unit. In August, Ford said it would cut a total of 3,000 salaried and contract jobs, mostly in North America and India.

Over the past several years, our politicians in Washington have borrowed and spent trillions upon trillions of dollars, and the “experts” at the Federal Reserve have pumped trillions upon trillions of dollars into the financial system.

All that did was buy us a little more time.

All that did was delay the inevitable.

Now we are facing a crisis of absolutely epic proportions, and the economic suffering that we are currently experiencing is nothing compared to the economic suffering that is ahead of us.

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

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