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Prices For Physical Oil And Fertilizer Go Absolutely Nuts As A “Summer Of Shortages” Looms On The Horizon

April 16, 2026April 16, 2026 by Michael

Most people out there still seem to believe that the war in the Middle East will rapidly come to a conclusion and economic conditions will return to normal soon. Meanwhile, the price of physical oil is going absolutely nuts, the price of fertilizer is going absolutely nuts, and we are being warned that a “summer of shortages” is looming on the horizon if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. What we are going to be facing in the months ahead very much depends upon the duration of the war. Unfortunately, as you will see below, it does not appear that a peace deal with Iran is going to happen any time soon.

According to the Daily Mail, citizens of the UK are being warned to brace themselves for a “summer of shortages”…

Brits are being braced for a summer of shortages with warnings that chicken and pork are among a swathe of products at risk from the Iran war.

We have never seen a “summer of shortages” in the western world.

So most of us have no idea what that would look like.

According to the BBC, in a “worst case scenario” there could actually be shortages of chicken and pork in the months ahead…

The UK could face food shortages, including chicken and pork, by the summer if the Iran war continues, in a worst case scenario drawn up by government officials.

A government source told the BBC it was planning for a scenario which would involve the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and breakdowns in the supply of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is used in the slaughter of some animals and in food preservation.

A spokesperson from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs said it would continue to work closely with businesses to tackle the impact of the war.

Hopefully a worst case scenario will not materialize.

But right now the Iranians seem to be in no mood to release the stranglehold that they have on the Strait of Hormuz.

As a result, there could be widespread shortages of jet fuel in Europe in just six weeks…

Europe may have just six weeks left of jet fuel, with serious consequences for the continent’s economy, the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday.

“Several European countries may start to face shortages of jet fuel in the next 6 weeks, depending how much they are able to import from international markets to replace the lost supply from the Middle East, which accounted for 75% of Europe’s net imports of jet fuel previously,” the IEA told CNBC in an emailed statement.

Earlier, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the Strait of Hormuz blockade will result in “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” in an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday.

If you need to fly somewhere, I wouldn’t wait too much longer.

During the months ahead we could also see rationing of fuel and electricity.

In fact, it is being reported that Pakistan is already shutting down electricity generation “for about two hours during the evenings”…

Pakistan will suspend electricity supply for about two hours during the evenings, an effort to manage the cost of power as the Iran war further shakes the energy-poor country, reported Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Demand raises significantly between 5 p.m. and 1 a.m., due in part to reduced hydropower generation, the Pakistani government said in a statement on Wednesday. Potential gaps would have to be met through fossil fuels that have become more expensive after the Iran war disrupted flows plunging the region into an energy crisis.

Some people in Pakistan are claiming that electricity generation is down for much more than just two hours a day.

But those are just anecdotal reports at this point.

Sadly, things will get so much worse if the Strait of Hormuz does not get reopened soon.

Earlier this week, HSBC Group CEO Georges Elhedery made headlines when he discussed the historic crisis that is now upon us.

He is claiming that the highest price that he has seen so far for a barrel of physical oil is 286 dollars…

“What worries me is not the headlines. I mean, oil headline is above $100, $110. Realistically, if you are now trying to get oil from the Middle East, you may be paying $140, $150.

Realistically, if you try to get oil from the Red Sea, you are paying more than $30, $40 for shipping. Insurance costs, which used to be 25 basis points, is more like 5%, and war insurance has been scrapped — you’re paying 5% without even the war insurance component.

So the barrel of oil door to door or the barrel of refined oil door to door is way above the headline price of oil. The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, but the highest I’ve seen is $286 for a barrel of oil that reached Sri Lanka. This is not a country and an economy that can easily afford these kind of prices sustainably.”

I was absolutely stunned when I read that.

I knew that the price of physical oil for immediate delivery had become completely disconnected from oil futures, but I didn’t realize that things were already this bad.

And the price of fertilizer has been rising at an exponential rate in recent weeks…

If you have been keeping up with my recent articles, you already know why that chart is such a big deal.

Needless to say, we desperately need a diplomatic breakthrough.

It would be so wonderful if Iran would just allow traffic to flow through the Strait of Hormuz like it did before.

But the Iranians are insisting that they are in charge of the Strait from now on, and they are demanding that any commercial vessels that they allow to pass through the waterway must pay a very large toll that is to be paid using Iranian banks…

An Iranian parliament official has been cited in newswires as saying the country’s planned Strait of Hormuz toll for ships seeking to pass is to be paid through Iranian banks. Previously it was said to be through cryptocurrency, and could be as a high as $2 million Oil rose higher, given this is another indicator this game of chicken in the narrow waterway could soon lead to fresh hostilities, despite the 2-week ceasefire still being in place, soon to expire.

The Trump administration is hoping to break Iran’s resolve by blockading all Iranian ports.

So far, 13 vessels that attempted to travel to or from Iranian ports have been turned back…

The U.S. Navy has turned back 13 ships since its blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman began more than 24 hours earlier, the Pentagon said Thursday.

President Donald Trump announced the blockade on Sunday after complaining that Tehran has not appeared to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of his conditions for agreeing to the fragile two-week ceasefire that is currently in effect.

The attempt to ratchet pressure on Iran began after an initial round of U.S.-Iran peace talks failed over the weekend.

I don’t think that this blockade is going to force the Iranians to give in.

If that doesn’t work, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is warning that the U.S. military is ready to bomb them into oblivion…

Secretary Hegseth sends a DIRECT MESSAGE to Iran from the Pentagon

“To IRGC leadership, we’re watching you.

Our capabilities are NOT the same, our military and yours.

Remember, this is NOT a fair fight, and we know what military assets you are moving and where you are moving them to.

You are digging out, which is exactly what you’re doing— digging out of bombed out and devastated facilities, and we are only getting stronger.”

“We are locked and loaded on your critical dual-use infrastructure, on your remaining power generation, and your energy industry.

We’d rather not have to do it, we are ready to go at command of our president and the push of a button.”

Unfortunately, Iranian leaders have not been swayed by such threats.

In fact, they do not plan to meet with U.S. negotiators again until the U.S. quits making “excessive demands”…

Right now, the U.S. and Iran are not even in the same universe as far as what a reasonable conclusion to this war would look like.

During the recent peace talks in Pakistan, Vice-President JD Vance delivered the Trump administration’s “final offer” to the Iranians.

Sadly, the Iranians were not interested at all, and they are making all sorts of threats. Here is just one example…

Iran’s Seyed Mohammad Marandi:

“Because of Netanyahu and Trump, Iran is preparing to destroy everything in the Persian Gulf – including all critical infrastructure in the UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Temperatures will rise, the Peninsula will become uninhabitable, and the global economy will crash.”

It appears that a lot more fighting is still ahead.

Of course that means that the Strait of Hormuz will likely be closed for an extended period of time.

So I would encourage you to prepare yourself for a “summer of shortages”, because a “worst case scenario” appears to be the most likely scenario at this stage.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing. You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter. Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites. These are such troubled times, and people need hope. John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.” If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

70 Percent Of U.S. Farmers Say That They Will Not Be Able To Purchase All The Fertilizer That They Need In 2026

April 15, 2026 by Michael

We might want to listen to what the farmers are telling us, because if they don’t grow our food we do not eat. Coming into this year, we were already facing the worst farming crisis in America in at least 50 years. Farmers all over the nation are drowning in debt, and farm bankruptcies have been soaring. In all my years, I have never seen America’s farmers so angry, and now the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has made things much worse. Spring planting season is here and there is a global scramble for whatever supplies of nitrogen fertilizer that happen to be available. As a result, prices have skyrocketed and farmers all over the planet are facing some incredibly tough choices.

That is even true here in the United States.

According to a brand new survey that was just conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation, 70 percent of U.S. farmers say that they will not be able to purchase all of the fertilizer that they need in 2026 because it has become so expensive…

Conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation April 3-11, the survey shows 70% of respondents say fertilizer is so expensive that they will not be able to buy all the fertilizer they need.

More than 5,700 farmers, both Farm Bureau members and non-members, from every state and Puerto Rico took the survey. Farm Bureau economists analyzed the results in the latest Market Intel.

The analysis reveals that almost 8 in 10 farmers in the southern U.S. say they can’t afford all needed supplies this year, followed by the Northeast and West at 69% and 66%, respectively, compared to 48% of the farmers in the Midwest.

Fertilizer prices were already at frighteningly high levels even before the war with Iran started, and since that time they have surged dramatically…

Nitrogen fertilizer prices have gone up more than 30 percent since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, according to Market Intel. Combined fuel and fertilizer costs have also risen between 20 and 40 percent, with urea prices jumping 47 percent since late February.

Many people out there don’t seem to understand this yet, but this is going to affect all of us.

If 70 percent of U.S. farmers use less fertilizer this year, those farmers will grow less food.

If there is less food available, prices will go up.

Needless to say, food prices are already at ridiculous levels, but they are going to go even higher.

In impoverished countries, conditions will be even worse.

Due to a historic lack of nitrogen fertilizer, hundreds of millions of families that are currently barely existing “may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food”…

In many parts of the world, vulnerable families who today are currently managing to put some food on the table may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food.

“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest,” said WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau.

I wish that I could get people to understand how serious this is.

Goldman Sachs is publicly admitting that the global fertilizer crisis is spreading a lot faster than they were originally projecting.

We desperately need the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened immediately, but that simply isn’t going to happen.

The Iranians continue to strangle commercial traffic through the Strait, and the U.S. has now “completely” cut off traffic to Iranian ports…

The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is now fully into effect, “completely” cutting off Tehran’s international sea trade that powers about 90% of its economy, the U.S. Central Command said late Tuesday stateside.

The announcement comes at a time when the White House has been signaling a diplomatic solution to the conflict in the Middle East, as discussions around continuing negotiations with Iran are underway.

“A blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented as U.S. forces maintain maritime superiority in the Middle East,” said Brad Cooper, Centcom commander, highlighting that it was achieved under 36 hours of President Donald Trump’s order.

The Trump administration is convinced that this blockade will force the Iranians to give in.

According to U.S. Central Command, the first 48 hours of the blockade have been a resounding success…

But the Iranians are showing no signs of backing down.

On Wednesday, an official with the IRGC warned of severe consequences if the U.S. does not end the blockade…

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced Wednesday that Tehran would not allow the import or export of goods through the Persian Gulf, the nearby Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea unless the United States lifts the blockade it imposed earlier this week around the Strait of Hormuz.

Ali Abdollahi, commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya emergency headquarters, said the measures would be “firm and decisive” steps to protect Iran’s national interests and sovereignty.

According to Abdollahi, if the U.S. continues the blockade Iran has decided that it “will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea”…

In his statement broadcast by Iranian state television, Abdollahi said Iran would move to disrupt shipping routes in the Red Sea and elsewhere if the U.S. continued its blockade, initiated by President Donald Trump.

“The powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea,” the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said.

If Iran is able to successfully stop commercial traffic from traveling through all of those waterways, it will greatly intensify the economic problems that we are starting to witness all over the globe.

In California, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has already almost reached 6 dollars…

Gas prices are soaring across the country, but especially in California. The Golden State average is now nearly $6 per gallon — 40 percent above the national figure. That gap is likely to widen: UC Davis economists estimate that Californians could soon be paying more than $2.50 a gallon above the national average.

In the United Kingdom, officials are bracing for widespread fuel shortages in “two or three weeks”…

Sources told ITV News that the UK is ‘two or three weeks away’ from shortages of diesel and jet fuel, although petrol supplies are healthier.

The Government is said to be facing ‘difficult decisions’ over how to allot fuel supplies, including how to keep ‘ancillary power’ going for NHS hospitals.

If the war with Iran is not resolved quickly, this will only be the tip of the iceberg.

The Iranians are holding the global economy hostage, and they fully realize that this gives them a tremendous amount of leverage.

But there is no way that the U.S. and Israel will ever agree to their demands.

So for now we seem to have an unsolvable problem on our hands, and meanwhile the damage that is being done to the global economy is getting worse with each passing day.

One Of The Largest Food Producing Nations On The Entire Planet May Soon Be Forced To Ration Fuel

April 14, 2026April 14, 2026 by Michael

The real pain from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t even hit us yet. All over the world, countries are running down their strategic energy reserves, and the last tankers that left the Persian Gulf before the war started will be arriving at their destinations this month. After that, things are going to start getting really crazy unless we get some sort of a miracle and the Strait of Hormuz is quickly reopened. The shortages that we have seen so far are nothing compared to what could be coming, and as you will see below, we are being warned that one of the largest food producing nations on the entire planet may soon be forced to ration fuel.

According to the Washington Post, less than 10 ships a day have been traveling through the Strait of Hormuz…

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained a week after the United States and Iran said they would facilitate vessel passage under a two-week ceasefire agreement. Instead, tensions have escalated. After Iran said ships must coordinate with its forces — and, in some cases, pay a toll — President Donald Trump called the demands “extortion” and announced Sunday that the United States would block ships entering or exiting Iranian ports, adding pressure to an already fragile truce.

But even as Washington seeks to squeeze Iran economically, Tehran retains a powerful advantage: geography. Over six weeks of conflict, Iran has halted virtually all traffic in the strait by laying mines, according to its military forces, and exploiting the vulnerability created by its terrain. Even under a U.S. blockade, these factors allow Iran to continue exerting influence over who crosses — and at what risk.

That risk, more than any formal closure, is what is keeping ships away. According to data from Kpler, only nine vessels have crossed the strait daily on average since the ceasefire, compared with the prewar traffic of more than 130 ships. “De facto, the ceasefire has done absolutely nothing to change the situation [in the strait]. None whatsoever,” said Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime, a container shipping consultancy based in Copenhagen.

Now that the U.S. Navy is conducting a blockade of Iranian ports, no vessels will be traveling to or from Iran, and the level of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will go down even more.

Both sides are expecting the other to give in.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is really suffering.

For example, a lack of fuel has created an unprecedented crisis for the nation of Australia…

In the film Mad Max, an oil shortage leaves Australian society teetering on the brink of total collapse.

In real-life, things aren’t quite that dystopian yet Down Under. But with barely a month of stockpiled diesel left and hundreds of forecourts running dry, the anxiety is palpable.

Australia has one of the highest per-capita rates of diesel consumption in the world but it relies almost entirely on imports to meet that demand. There are two domestic refineries producing petrol but up to 90pc of that is imported, too.

If the conflict in the Middle East is resolved very soon, Australia will come through this okay.

But if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period of time, Australia will find itself in all sorts of trouble, because it only has about a month of fuel left before rationing will become necessary…

The country has 38 days’ worth of petrol left in reserve before reaching critical levels, at which point rationing would need to kick in. For diesel, it’s 31 days and for jet fuel, just 28.

For truckers and farmers in particular, the supply crunch feels near-existential.

Without enough diesel, Australia’s trucking industry will come to a standstill.

Even worse, Australia’s farmers won’t be able to plant their crops if they can’t get the fuel that they need.

And that is really bad news for the entire planet, because Australia is the world’s “fifth-largest producer of wheat and second-largest grower of barley”…

In a country that is the fifth-largest producer of wheat and second-largest grower of barley, McIntyre warns that “most farmers will need to decide before Anzac Day [April 25] whether they will plant a crop this year”.

Mathew Munro, the chief executive of the Australian Trucking Association, sounds equally alarmed. He recently described the situation for the country’s 60,000 trucking businesses as “an emergency”.

Yet again, we see another mention of wheat and barley in the news.

As I have discussed in previous articles, wheat production and barley production are both going to be way down all over the globe in 2026 because we are not getting nitrogen fertilizer from the Middle East into the hands of farmers throughout the northern hemisphere that desperately need it.

Nitrogen fertilizer is the primary reason why we were able to grow the population of the globe to 8 billion people.

And without sufficient quantities of nitrogen fertilizer each growing season, there is no possible way that we will be able to continue to feed 8 billion people.

If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, 6 to 9 months from now we will be facing a global shortage of food of epic proportions.

The Trump administration is convinced that a naval blockade will be so painful that it will force the Iranians to give in.

According to U.S. Central Command, during the first 24 hours “no ships made it past the U.S. blockade”…

No ships will be arriving at Iranian ports, and no ships will be leaving.

This will cut off the flow of oil revenue to the regime, and it will also cause excruciating shortages of gasoline and diesel because Iran does not possess sufficient refining capacity to produce what they need domestically…

Within 10 to 14 days, Iran won’t be able to store oil and will have permanent long term damage to oil wells for extracting oil. Oil wells perform poorly after you stop the flowing process.

Iran exports oil, but it also imports gasoline and diesel. Iran lacks the ability to refine enough of their own oil into gasoline and diesel. So very soon Iran will be running out of fuel everywhere.

Meanwhile, this naval blockade is deeply upsetting the Chinese.

Most people do not realize this, but normally over half of the energy that China uses travels through the Strait of Hormuz…

More than half of China’s energy comes through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

“Such actions will only intensify contradictions, exacerbate tensions, undermine the already fragile ceasefire, and further jeopardize the security of navigation through the strait,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters Tuesday of the U.S. blockade. “This is dangerous and irresponsible behavior.”

For the moment, the Chinese are fine because they were wise enough to stockpile absolutely enormous reserves.

But if we get a few months down the road and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, the Chinese are going to start to panic.

If push comes to shove, I believe that the Chinese Navy would start escorting tankers to ports in Iran.

At that point, the Trump administration would have a major decision to make.

Let’s hope that it never comes to that.

Let’s hope that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved very rapidly.

But at this stage there is no end to this crisis in sight, and that is really bad news for the entire world.

The Crisis In The Strait Of Hormuz Is The Greatest Threat To The Global Economy In My Entire Lifetime

April 13, 2026April 13, 2026 by Michael

Nobody was ready for a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an indefinite period of time. The Iranians think that they will eventually get what they want by holding commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hostage and causing as much pain for the global economy as possible. The Trump administration believes that if Iran’s oil revenue is cut off the regime in Tehran will eventually be forced to give in to their demands. Both sides are engaged in an extremely high stakes game of chicken, and both sides are making tragic miscalculations. There is no way that the world economy is going to be able to handle a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lasts for months. We will see shortages, rationing, panic, riots and market collapses. This is the greatest threat to the world economy that I have seen in my entire lifetime so far, and the truth is that this crisis is just getting started.

On Monday, the Trump administration commenced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the Wall Street Journal, more than 15 U.S. Navy warships are involved…

A U.S. military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was under way on Monday after peace talks broke down, and President Trump warned that any Iranian fast-attack ships that came near the blockade would be destroyed.

More than 15 U.S. warships are in place to support the operation, according to a senior official. An advisory to mariners from U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, which is affiliated with Britain’s Royal Navy, said maritime-access restrictions were being enforced for Iranian ports and coastal areas along the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and parts of the Arabian Sea.

Trump threatened drug-boat-style strikes on Iranian ships, saying in a social-media post that they would be targeted “using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea.”

Iran was only allowing a very limited number of vessels through the Strait in recent weeks.

Now that we also have a U.S. blockade on top of that, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will virtually be entirely shut down.

Shortly after the blockade began, two oil tankers that were heading through the waterway were forced to reverse course…

At least two oil/chemical tankers turned away from the Strait of Hormuz on Monday after the U.S. began its blockade of the waterway.

Rich Starry, a ship laden with oil that had said its destination was China, turned back from the Strait about 20 minutes after the blockade began, according to MarineTraffic, a maritime analytics provider. The ship’s flag was Malawi, which is a landlocked country, so it is a false flag.

Meanwhile, Ostria, a false-flagged Chinese oil/chemical tanker that was partially laden with oil, turned back from the Strait, according to MarineTraffic. The ship is sailing under the flag of Botswana, which is a landlocked African country.

The Chinese warned the Trump administration not to do this.

But the Trump administration did it anyway.

Now the Chinese are furious, and they are warning that there could be consequences…

The tanker U-turns follows unconfirmed reports that China has warned the US not to block/intercept Chinese ships/tankers, or face consequences that could potentially include military provocations.

China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun reportedly sent a message to the Trump administration and the U.S. Navy emphasizing Beijing’s intent to continue operating in the Strait of Hormuz and uphold its agreements with Iran. “Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran. We will respect and honor those agreements and expect others not to interfere in our affairs” adding that “Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and it is open for us.”

I don’t expect a military confrontation between the U.S. and China yet.

The Chinese will probably give diplomacy a chance to work.

But if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period of time, China will eventually do something about it.

As I discussed yesterday, China purchases more natural gas from the Middle East than anyone else.

China also purchases more oil from Saudi Arabia than anyone else.

And approximately 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports go to China.

A lot of people out there simply do not understand that this crisis really could lead to a major showdown with China.

Of course the entire world is going to experience a tremendous amount of pain if this crisis goes on for long enough.

The New York Times is reporting that as oil prices rise “some companies say they are planning for $175 a barrel”…

If no Iranian oil gets through the strait, prices could keep rising over time — some companies say they are planning for $175 a barrel. The Iranians understand the potential political effects of continued inflation in the United States less than seven months before midterm elections.

“Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4 to $5 gas,” Iran’s top negotiator and the speaker of its Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned American consumers after the failure of the talks he led with Mr. Vance.

The Iranians intend to be in control of the Strait of Hormuz both now and in the future.

And they are warning that if the U.S. or anyone else attempts to interfere with their control of the waterway there will be serious consequences…

“Iran, based on clear and logical principles, is responsible for the security and management of the Strait of Hormuz,” Gen. Reza Talaei-Nik, spokesperson for Iran’s Defense Ministry, told the state-owned organization Press TV.

He said Iran “will not allow any interference or aggression by U.S. or other foreign forces” and will not hesitate to respond decisively “to any aggressor, including Israel and the United States, in the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere.”

Now that a U.S. blockade has started, it is probably just a matter of time before more fighting erupts.

There is also a very strong possibility that the Houthis could soon shut down commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait…

Iran could retaliate against a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by directing its Houthi allies to disrupt another critical global shipping route, a senior Middle East analyst warned Sunday.

The Bab al-Mandeb — a narrow chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — carries roughly 12% of global oil shipments and serves as a vital trade corridor between Asia and Europe, making it a strategic target for escalation that could further strain global energy markets.

If that happens, that will make this crisis a whole lot worse.

But even if the war ended tomorrow and commercial traffic in the Middle East was fully reopened, we would still be facing a global energy crisis for an extended period of time because oil production in the region is way down due to all of the damage that has already been inflicted by the conflict…

Crude oil production in the major Gulf Arab exporters plunged in March due to the Iran war, according to data released by OPEC on Monday.

Iraq took the biggest hit with production collapsing 61% from 4.2 million barrels per day in February to 1.6 million bpd in March, according to OPEC’s monthly report. Output plunged 53% in Kuwait and 44% in the United Arab Emirates month over month, the data showed.

Production in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, dropped 23% from 10.1 million bpd to 7.8 million bpd. The Saudis are relying on a crucial East-West pipeline to reroute barrels from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea for export.

We have a real nightmare on our hands.

Next to nothing has been able to get through the Strait of Hormuz for over a month, and a prominent political scientist is warning that we are facing “a system-wide supply shock”…

Global markets could begin running short of “critical goods” within a few days, following the breakdown in peace negotiations between Iran and the U.S. and the now double-edged blockade on the vital Hormuz Strait.

This is according to political scientist and security scholar Robert Pape, who on Sunday warned that the supply chain impacts of the conflict could soon extend far beyond the current pressures on global energy costs.

“Everyone is still talking about oil prices. That’s already outdated,” Pape posted to X on Sunday. “This is no longer a price shock—It is the early stage of a system-wide supply shock.”

He is right, and the damage to global supply chains is only going to get worse with each passing day.

But this crisis is not going to end any time soon, because both sides are waiting for the other to give in…

President Trump’s decision to blockade all Iranian shipments out of or into the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning sets up the next great test in the Iran war: Which side can endure more economic pain, Tehran’s new leadership or Mr. Trump himself?

The Iranians clearly think that they have the upper hand.

But the pain that the U.S. naval blockade is going to cause for their economy will be immense…

The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276M/day in lost exports and disrupt $159M/day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435M/day, or $13B/month.

Over 90% of Iran’s $109.7B in annual trade transits the Persian Gulf. Oil/gas accounts for 80% of government export earnings and 23.7% of GDP. Kharg Island alone generates ~$53B/year, or as I noted to @TIME, “$78 billion a year in energy revenue.

How long can they hold out?

How long can we hold out?

For now, President Trump is insisting that he is willing to go for as long as it takes…

President Donald Trump said Iran is “in very bad shape” and vowed it “will not have a nuclear weapon” as he signaled indifference to renewed negotiations, saying he “doesn’t care” if Tehran returns to talks, while confirming a U.S. blockade of Iranian oil flows set to take effect Monday morning.

Speaking late Sunday after returning to Washington from Florida, Trump underscored his posture following the collapse of U.S.-Iran talks, stating plainly, “I don’t care if they come back or not. If they don’t come back, I’m fine.”

If there is no quick resolution to this crisis, things are going to get really bad.

I am not talking about just a few minor inconveniences.

I am talking about major shortages all over the globe in just a matter of months.

If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for an extended period of time, there will be extreme hunger in impoverished countries.

At this stage, it already appears that we will not be able to salvage the spring planting season in the northern hemisphere.

Farmers that have enough fertilizer will be able to grow their crops normally, but those that don’t will be out of luck.

Most people out there simply do not have a frame of reference for a crisis of this magnitude.

But unless a miracle happens, a few months from now people all over the world will be freaking out about how painful things have become.

Global Food Shortages Will Hit The World Like A Freight Train In 6 To 9 Months Because Virtually Nothing Will Get Through The Strait Of Hormuz Now

April 12, 2026 by Michael

Where do we go from here? Peace talks with Iran have totally failed, and there appears to be no hope that the gaps between the demands that the U.S. is making and the demands that Iran is making can be bridged. There are several key issues that both sides are not willing to compromise on, and that is going to have very serious implications for the entire planet. In the aftermath of the failed peace talks, Iranian officials warned that the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz would continue. Needless to say, that was completely and totally unacceptable to the Trump administration, and in response President Trump has just announced a full naval blockade of the Strait. What this means is that virtually nothing will get through the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period of time. As a result, the spring planting season in the northern hemisphere will be a total disaster, and global food shortages will hit the world like a freight train about 6 to 9 months from now.

Negotiating teams from the United States and Iran went back and forth for many hours in Pakistan, but ultimately the Iranians were simply not willing to agree to the “final offer” that Vice-President JD Vance set forth…

Vice President JD Vance presented a “final offer” to Iran during negotiations in Islamabad Saturday, outlining six U.S. “red lines,” according to U.S. officials.

The demands included an end all uranium enrichment and to dismantle major nuclear facilities and surrender highly enriched uranium.

The fourth was to accept a broader regional peace and de-escalation framework followed by to stop funding proxy groups including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

The sixth demand was to fully open the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.

So this is it.

Our last best chance for peace just went out the window.

The Iranians feel like they have more leverage than the U.S. does, and following the peace talks they warned that “there will be no change in the situation of the Strait of Hormuz”…

‘Iran is not in a hurry, and until the US agrees to a reasonable deal, there will be no change in the situation of the Strait of Hormuz,’ an unnamed Iranian official told the Fars News Agency.

The Iranians seem to believe that if they can just hold the global economy hostage for long enough, the U.S. will eventually be forced to give in.

Right now, approximately 3,200 ships are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf…

Yet even after a fragile ceasefire took hold, around 3,200 vessels, including 800 tankers and cargo ships, remained stranded west of the strait in the Persian Gulf, according to Windward, a maritime intelligence firm in London.

Iran is allowing a trickle of vessels, so long as they pay a toll and hail from nonhostile nations. Iranian authorities, in effect, are acting like a bouncer at a popular nightclub, permitting some fortunate customers to enter the strait while leaving others to idle in frustration.

“You can think of the Hormuz Strait as a form of flow control. The greatest power actually does not come from total blockade. What Iran is showing is that the real power that it conveys is that you can control who passes and who doesn’t,” said Nicholas Mulder, a sanctions expert and history professor at Cornell University.

Since the war began, it has primarily been vessels from Iran and vessels from nations that are allied with Iran that have been able to travel through the Strait.

But now President Trump is putting an end to that.

Trump just announced that the United States will conduct a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and will intercept any ships that pay tolls to Iran…

This is a big move.

The Iranians have only been allowing a handful of vessels through the Strait each day, and now virtually all of those will be blocked by the U.S. Navy.

In other words, from this point forward traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will almost entirely stop.

This will cut off the flow of oil revenue to the Iranian regime, and Trump seems to believe that this will force them to make a deal.

But I don’t think that it will.

Meanwhile, the Chinese are going to be extremely upset with us, because they normally import a tremendous amount of oil from the Middle East.

In the end, this is not going to work out well for anyone.

It is inevitable that we will see more fighting, and the Iranians are already warning that any military vessels that approach the Strait will be “dealt with strongly”…

Military vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a ceasefire breach and would be dealt with strongly, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy said in a statement on Sunday.

It will be fascinating to watch this showdown play out.

But it will also be horrifying to watch what this showdown is going to do to the global economy.

Physical oil is already selling for more than 140 dollars a barrel, and if it stays at this level the consequences are going to be absolutely devastating…

In the North Sea, the world’s most important physical crude market, traders submitted 40 bids for cargoes last week, only four of which were met by offers. Cargoes for delivery in the coming weeks changed hands at unprecedented prices above $140 a barrel. Elsewhere, refiners have been hunting increasingly further afield for supplies, leading to a series of unusual trades and surging premiums for any oil that’s ready to ship right now.

Traders said the panicky moves across the world’s key physical oil markets demonstrated the scale of the shortfall in crude that’s due to be felt as the loss of supplies from the Middle East leaves a growing gap.

As I have documented in previous articles, shortages have begun to emerge all over the globe, and people are getting really angry.

In Ireland, police are dealing with massive protests that have erupted due to the high price of fuel…

Police removed and arrested protesters on Saturday to reopen Ireland ‘s only oil refinery as a fifth day of disruptive demonstrations over the soaring price of fuel left many gas pumps dry and threatened to cripple transportation across the country.

Trucks and tractors continued to block access to vital fuel depots and a major port, and vehicles clogging traffic led to closures of part of the main highway around Dublin, the capital, as well as sections of other major roadways.

This is just the beginning.

Just wait until you see what happens a few months down the road.

In addition to oil and natural gas, there are a lot of other critical commodities that remain trapped in the Persian Gulf region…

Polyethylene and other kinds of plastics and resins are also greatly affected. More than 40 percent of the world’s polyethylene is exported from the Middle East. And these are used in all stages of production in all sorts of industries—packaging, auto parts, medical equipment, consumer containers, industrial components, electronics, and much, much more.

And there are other often-neglected but extremely important hydrocarbon products being held up, such as petroleum naphtha, which is critical for refining gasoline and producing solvents for cleaning agents and paints. Natural gas condensate is another liquid hydrocarbon used in refining and to dilute other denser hydrocarbons to make them easier to transport. There’s also liquified petroleum gas, or LPG, which is mostly composed of propane and butane. These components are also important for refining as well as residential cooking and heating in many parts of the world. Much of the world’s supply of all these products is produced in the Middle East and exported through the Strait of Hormuz.

Another often-neglected yet critical higher-order good is sulfur. About half the world’s seaborne sulfur trade moves through the Strait. It’s important for refining petroleum and minerals like copper, nickel, and zinc, which are widely used in everything from electronics to medicine.

On top of everything else, approximately one-third of all globally-traded nitrogen fertilizer normally travels through the Strait of Hormuz, and this war is already “causing shortages and price spikes”…

About a third of the world’s fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its effective closure is causing shortages and price spikes for fertilizer during the crucial spring planting season. That has led to fears of elevated food prices and lower crop yields.

Nitrogen fertilizer must be applied within a certain window of time for each crop or it will not work correctly.

Farmers all over the northern hemisphere are freaking out, because the entire spring planting season is at risk…

The fertilizer shortage is putting the livelihood of farmers in developing countries — already troubled by rising temperatures and erratic weather systems — further at risk, and could lead to people everywhere paying more for food.

The poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere rely on fertilizer imports from the Gulf, and the shortage comes just as planting season begins, said Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Program.

Yields for annual crops such as wheat, barley and corn will be severely affected if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened very soon.

But yields for crops that do not have to be planted each year such as olives and grapes will not be significantly affected.

At this moment, we are still eating food that was produced in 2025.

So the consequences of the coming crop shortages will not be felt for a while.

But 6 to 9 months from now, we will be hit by much higher prices for wheat, barley and corn.

Of course many Americans are already experiencing a case of “sticker shock” whenever they go to the grocery store these days…

It’s hard to go anywhere right now without experiencing sticker shock. Price change notifications can feel like little acts of financial violence.

Americans continue to reel from prices that soared during the pandemic, never came back to earth, and keep ticking higher. There’s no doubt that it costs more to feed yourself and cover basics like transportation, housing, and health insurance than it did just a few years ago.

But at least most of us have enough food to eat.

In impoverished nations all over the globe, that is certainly not the case.

The United Nations has been telling us that the number of people in the world that are dealing with “acute hunger” was already at an all-time record high even before this war began.

When food shortages dramatically escalate 6 to 9 months from now, things will get so much worse.

We can see this crisis coming way ahead of time, but there is no way out now.

So I hope that you are ready for the nightmare that is ahead of us.

This Is Going To Be A Complete And Utter Disaster For The Global Economy

April 9, 2026 by Michael

Iran is still holding traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hostage, and the entire world is going to suffer. Before the war, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz flowed freely, and the global economy functioned normally. But even though there is a temporary ceasefire, Iran continues to maintain a stranglehold on the waterway, and they are insisting that this will continue to be the case when a permanent deal to end the war is reached. In other words, the Iranians are making it clear that this is how things are going to operate from now on, and they know that the U.S. and Europe are not eager to do what it would take militarily to reopen the Strait. Of course even if there is a military operation to reopen the Strait, it will take an extended period of time before it is safe for commercial traffic to pass through the waterway once again. Any way that you look at it, the truth is that this is going to be a complete and utter disaster for the global economy.

The Iranians were supposed to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of the ceasefire deal.

But that has not happened.

In fact, the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has ominously declared that “the Strait of Hormuz is not open”…

The Strait of Hormuz has not opened to ship traffic after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, said the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., or ADNOC, on Thursday.

“This moment requires clarity,” said Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber in a social media post. “So let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled.”

Iran has made clear that ships must obtain its permission to pass through the strait, Al Jaber said. “That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion,” the ADNOC chief said.

Only a handful of ships are getting through right now.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Iranians are only going to allow about a dozen ships to pass through the Strait each day…

Iran told mediators it will limit the number of ships crossing the strait to around a dozen a day, and the Iranian Navy warned ships anchored near the strait that they would need Tehran’s permission to cross.

Before the war, about 10 times as many vessels were traveling through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis.

The Iranians are telling us that any vessels that attempt to pass through without authorization “will be destroyed”…

On Wednesday, Iran warned that oil tankers will be destroyed if they try to travel along the strait without permission, as it seeks to retain control over the passage during the ceasefire.

A radio message was broadcast yesterday by the regime to all oil ships in the vital waterway, saying: ‘If any vessels try to transit without permission, [they] will be destroyed.’

This is going to starve the global economy of desperately needed oil, natural gas, petrochemicals and fertilizer, and Iran fully understands this.

Any ships that Iran authorizes to pass through the Strait must “sail through Iranian waters around Larak Island to avoid the risk of naval mines”…

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have told vessels to sail through Iranian waters around Larak Island to avoid the risk of naval mines in the usual lanes through the strait, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Thursday.

Vessels are to enter the strait north of Larak Island and exit just south of it until further notice in coordination with the IRGC’s navy, Tasnim quoted the IRGC as saying.

Iran has essentially admitted that they have mined the Strait of Hormuz.

Even if the war ended immediately, it would take a long time to make sure that all the mines were gone.

The Iranians are forcing commercial ships to enter their own territorial waters so that they can charge a toll of up to 2 million dollars per vessel…

Iran is charging tolls of up to $2 million per ship to pass through the strait, a maneuver dubbed the “Tehran Toll Booth” in shipping circles.

When asked about what Iran is doing, the White House said that it is “completely unacceptable”…

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the alleged closure of the strait, based on reports from Iranian state media, is “completely unacceptable.”

And President Trump is pledging that once a permanent peace agreement is reached the Strait of Hormuz will be “OPEN & SAFE”…

There is just one huge problem.

The Iranians are insisting on control of the Strait of Hormuz as part of any peace deal.

So Trump is going to be faced with a decision.

Either he will give the Iranians what they want, or he will start the war back up again.

But let’s be wildly optimistic for a moment.

Let’s assume that the Iranians totally give in and allow commercial traffic to flow freely through the Strait of Hormuz.

Even if that were to happen, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would not return to normal levels for a very long time to come.

We know that this is true, because traffic through the Red Sea has still not returned to normal even though there has been a ceasefire with the Houthis for quite some time…

Analysts told CNBC that the Houthis in Yemen disrupting the Red Sea last year provides a reference point to how quickly traffic could recover following a potential ceasefire.

“In the Red Sea with the Houthis, the ceasefire agreement was last January and traffic has not returned,” Nikos Petrakakos, managing director at maritime investment manager Tufton, told CNBC in an interview. “As long as there’s a threat of an attack, that’s enough. You don’t actually need the attack.”

The bottom line is that the crisis in the Middle East is going to continue to massively disrupt the global economy for an extended period no matter what happens next.

The last tankers that departed prior to the war are arriving at their destinations, and we are already starting to see rationing and shortages all over the globe.

In fact, Madagascar just declared a nationwide energy emergency…

Madagascar has declared a two‑week nationwide state of energy emergency amid severe fuel shortages caused by the US and Israel’s war in Iran.

The presidency said the decision was taken following Tuesday’s cabinet meeting over fears the situation could lead to public disorder.

The “severe fuel shortages” that they are now experiencing will not be alleviated any time soon.

In Myanmar, a “rationing system for private vehicles” has just been imposed…

Amid fuel shortages, Myanmar’s military government has implemented a rationing system for private vehicles. Under the singular scheme, vehicles with even-numbered licence plates are only allowed to drive on even dates while those with odd-numbered plates can only drive on odd dates.

This is just the beginning.

Supplies of oil and natural gas are starting to get really tight in Europe, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has warned that what the continent is facing is “probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment”…

For the European Union, the short-term consequences of Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — steeply rising gasoline and diesel prices, and a severe jet fuel shortage putting foreign travel at risk — could be dwarfed by the long-term implications of a prolonged closure. An industrial crash, higher manufacturing prices passed on to consumers in the form of damaging inflation, fertilizer shortages and resulting spikes in food prices, and higher household utility bills all have the potential to upend European politics.

What is already being called “the biggest global energy crisis in history” could have still more drastic consequences, and the EU is particularly exposed, with most of its major economies significantly more dependent on fossil fuel imports than the UK. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde last month described the long-term effects for Europe as “probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment”.

Little wonder, then, that the EU has convened the dreaded European “working group”. EU Energy and Housing Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said on Friday that the bloc is exploring “all possibilities” to deal with a “long-lasting” shock, in which “energy prices will be higher for a very long time.” Jørgensen mentioned fuel rationing and releasing emergency oil reserves as potential steps to mitigate the crisis; fuel rationing has already been introduced in Slovenia, while fuel restrictions have been issued at four Italian airports.

And the International Monetary Fund is publicly admitting that there will be shortages of diesel and jet fuel “for some time”…

The world will experience diesel and jet fuel shortages “for some time” because of the war in Iran, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The halting of normal flows through the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz – the vital oil and gas shipping route – “will for some time continue to have ripple effects”, said the organisation’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

She specifically mentioned shortages in refined oil products, diesel and jet fuel.

This is really happening.

Even if Iran surrenders, fully opens the Strait of Hormuz immediately and starts feverishly removing the mines, the world will still experience enormous supply disruptions throughout the remainder of 2026.

Of course the truth is that Iran does not intend to give in on anything.

The Iranians believe that they have won, and they are going to stick to the list of 10 demands that they have been relentlessly sharing with the world on social media.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration plans to stick to the list of 15 demands that it is making.

There is no way that those two lists are compatible.

So it appears that more fighting is probably inevitable, and that will just make economic conditions even worse.

Widespread Rationing And Global Energy Shortages Are Baked In No Matter When The War Ends Now

April 7, 2026April 7, 2026 by Michael

It is difficult to believe the pace at which global events are now moving. Apocalyptic threats are being thrown around recklessly and severe damage is being done to the global economic system every single day. A lot of people still seem to think that economic conditions will snap back to normal once the war ends, and that is because they don’t understand the level of destruction that has already taken place. Even if the war ends tomorrow and commercial traffic starts flowing freely through the Strait of Hormuz once again, the world won’t be getting nearly as much energy from the Middle East because dozens of oil and natural gas facilities have either been damaged or destroyed. That means that widespread rationing and global energy shortages are baked in no matter what happens next.

According to the executive director of the IEA, 75 energy sites in the Persian Gulf region have been attacked, and approximately a third of those sites have experienced severe damage…

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol was interviewed by the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier on Tuesday and warned that the Gulf energy shock “is more severe than those of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined” because it is affecting oil, gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and global trade all at once.

Birol said in the interview that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs and a prolonged disruption of some energy flows, further tightening global supplies and compounding the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

It is going to take years to rebuild the damage that has already been done by this war.

So what will things look like if this war stretches on for many more months?

Tankers that traveled through the Strait of Hormuz before the war began have still been arriving at their destinations.

But this month that is going to stop happening, and Birol is warning that we are entering a “black April”…

These countries are producing just over half of pre-war levels. As for natural gas, exports have stopped entirely. March was already difficult, but April will be worse. If the Strait remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined products as in March. We are entering a “black April.” In the Northern Hemisphere, April usually marks spring—but now it may feel like the beginning of winter.

Even in a wildly optimistic scenario in which the war ends immediately, conditions will continue to deteriorate for quite some time to come.

Right now, Asia is being hit harder than anywhere else, because they are the most dependent on Middle East energy…

In South Korea, the president urged citizens to take shorter showers to save energy. Butter chicken has disappeared from some restaurant menus in India because it needs to simmer for a long time, which is a challenge when there’s a shortage of cooking gas. In the Philippines, the government asked officials to reduce electricity usage by taking the stairs instead of elevators.

We haven’t seen anything like this in decades.

Bangladesh is already experiencing widespread fuel shortages, and we are witnessing fights, robberies and panic-buying at gas stations all over the country…

In Bangladesh, the fuel shortages and panic have resulted in a spike in robberies, as people raid gas stations and fuel trucks in order to stockpile supplies.

Mohammad Najmul Haque, president of the Bangladesh Petrol Pump Owners Association, told the Washington Post that attacks are reported every day across the roughly 3,000 fuel stations in the country. The appearance of huge lines of people panic-buying fuel has contributed to a cycle of fear, leading others to do the same. Some gas station managers have been beaten—or even killed—Haque and Bangladeshi officials reported, over the fuel shortages.

Things will soon get even worse in nations all over Asia because the tankers are going to stop arriving this month.

Of course Europe is going to experience a tremendous amount of pain too.

Already, approximately 18 percent of all gas stations in France are “facing fuel supply shortages”…

Around 18% of French petrol stations are currently facing fuel supply shortages, the government said on Tuesday, while rising prices at the pump prompted some drivers in western France to block a road in a sign of rumbling discontent.

As the US-Israeli-led war on Iran ‌enters its sixth week, a supply crunch on oil deliveries has ⁠led to a surge in crude and fuel prices in many parts of the world.

Here in the United States, we don’t have to worry about any gasoline shortages at this stage.

But in many areas of the nation gasoline sure is getting quite expensive…

For Connie Lear, driving even her hybrid car is a luxury she can rarely afford.

Lear lives in the rural town of June Lake, California, a picturesque community of 300 people near Yosemite National Park and the Nevada state line.

June Lake is part of Mono County, which has the highest average gas price in the United States.

“My husband and I were watching the news this morning, and it came on about $4 gas and I said, ‘Well, where are you? Ours is $7.50!’” she said, citing the price at the only gas station in her town. The Mono County average was $6.72 as of Monday, according to AAA.

What are people going to do if the price of gasoline hits 10 dollars a gallon?

Of course if this war persists we could eventually be dealing with shortages too.

In fact, one industry insider is telling us that is exactly what is going to happen if “we continue on the path we are on now”…

“The longer this goes on, the scarier it is. Today we might not have a shortfall, but eventually we will,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

“If we continue on the path we are on now, we will run out of fuel,” he warned.

It appears that supplies of jet fuel are even tighter.

Thousands of flights are being canceled all over the world, and four airports in Italy just started “imposing restrictions on refueling due to a shortage of jet fuel”…

Europe’s airports have begun imposing restrictions on refueling due to a shortage of jet fuel, and airlines have preemptively canceled flights.

In Italy, four airports in Bologna, Milan, Treviso and Venice placed some restrictions on jet fuel through Thursday, according to an official notice, which says that “due to limited fuel availability from Air BP Italia, refueling services for operators contractually linked to Air BP Italia may be subject to restrictions.”

As I stated yesterday, if you need to fly somewhere you should do it as soon as possible.

Supplies of jet fuel are only going to get tighter from here.

The same thing can be said about petrochemicals.

I wish that this was not true, but without sufficient supplies of petrochemicals the global economy will not be able to function.

So the fact that major petrochemical facilities in the Middle East are being destroyed should deeply alarm all of us.

In Iran, two facilities that account for over 85 percent of Iranian petrochemical exports have been destroyed…

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the operation, stating that the strike on Assaluyeh marks the second major petrochemical complex targeted by Israel in Iran. He said that the two facilities together account for more than 85 percent of Iran’s petrochemical exports and are now no longer operational following the attacks.

Iranian media, including Fars News Agency and Mehr News Agency, reported multiple explosions in the South Pars Special Economic Energy Zone in Assaluyeh following the strikes. The reports indicated that the operation involved U.S. and Israeli fighter jets and that several key installations were hit, including the Jam and Damavand petrochemical plants.

In response, the Iranians hit the fourth biggest petrochemical manufacturer on the entire planet…

Iranian ballistic missiles struck Al-Jubail Industrial City, Saudi Arabia

The target was the Middle East’s largest petrochemical company, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), the fourth largest petrochemical manufacturer in the world after DuPont, BASF and Sinopec

If you do not understand how things are made, you may not think that this is that big of a deal.

But the truth is that almost everything that you buy either contains petrochemicals or is wrapped in packaging that is made from petrochemicals.

Goldman Sachs is warning that the petrochemical supply shock is “transmitting faster and at a greater magnitude than we had anticipated”…

Goldman analysts, led by Georgina Fraser, warned clients on Monday that the petrochemical shock is worsening across Asia, with textile and packaging plants emerging as the first major downstream casualties.

“The supply shock is transmitting faster and at a greater magnitude than we had anticipated,” Fraser emphasized in the note.

She said the supply shock is moving beyond higher energy prices into production cuts, margin compression, and early demand destruction, adding that “signals are materializing fastest, with textiles and packaging among the first downstream sectors affected.”

This is not a hypothetical scenario that may or may not happen someday.

This is an unprecedented global nightmare that is happening right now.

If you are a regular reader, you already know that I am extremely concerned about the worldwide shortage of fertilizer that has now erupted…

About a third of all fertilizer shipped globally goes through the Strait of Hormuz because Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran are big global producers. Some plants in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan have stopped fertilizer production entirely because of a shortage of natural gas.

We can’t get the fertilizer that is trapped in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.

And we can’t get fertilizer plants all over the globe the natural gas from the Middle East that they need to operate.

Spring is planting season all over the northern hemisphere, and if nitrogen fertilizer is not applied within a certain window of time it won’t work.

Global food production is going to be way down in 2026.

The number of people facing acute hunger around the world was already at a record high before the war started, and now we are facing a scenario in which we could see widespread famine in many areas of the planet.

Even if the war ends tomorrow, it is going to take many years for the global economy to recover.

So what kind of crisis are we talking about if this war keeps raging for a long time to come?

“A Shortage Of Nearly Everything” Is Coming If The War Does Not End Soon – In South Korea, People Are Already Panic-Buying Trash Bags

April 6, 2026April 6, 2026 by Michael

Even the mainstream media is now openly admitting that shortages are coming. But right now I am seeing so much apathy about the war in the Middle East and the global supply chain disruptions that are happening right in front of our eyes. So many people seem to be convinced that the war will end soon and things will go right back to the way that they were before. I really wish that was true. But the Iranians just told us that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz “will never return to its former state, especially for America and Israel”, and that means that this war is not going to end any time soon. As a result, the global supply chain disruptions that we are experiencing now are going to get far worse.

Most people living in the United States simply do not realize what is really going on out there.

All over the world, supplies of essential materials are getting very tight.

Even though this war is only a little over one month old, CNN is telling us that we could soon be facing “a shortage of nearly everything”…

One month into the war in Iran, a growing shortage of crude oil is threatening to morph into something worse: a shortage of nearly everything.

This isn’t some rumor on social media.

This is CNN.

One of the most powerful news organizations in the entire world is openly admitting that widespread global shortages are rapidly approaching.

According to CNN’s report, people in South Korea are already panic-buying trash bags, and manufacturers in Taiwan are already completely running out of plastic…

In South Korea, where people have been panic-buying trash bags, the government has encouraged event organizers to minimize use of disposable items. Taiwan has started a hotline for manufacturers that have run out of plastic, while its rice farmers told local media they may hike prices because they can’t get vacuum-sealed bags.

In Japan, the oil crisis has sparked fears that patients with chronic kidney failure won’t be able to get treatment due to a lack of plastic medical tubes used in hemodialysis. Malaysian glove manufacturers say a dearth of a petroleum byproduct needed to make rubber latex is threatening global supplies of medical gloves.

“This spills into everything very, very quickly: beer, noodles, chips, toys, cosmetics,” said Dan Martin, co-head of business intelligence at Dezan Shira & Associates, an advisory firm that helps international businesses expand in Asia.

That’s because plastic caps, crates, snack bags and containers are becoming more difficult to procure. Petroleum derivatives are also needed to make adhesives for footwear and furniture, industrial lubricants for machinery and solvents for paints and cleaning processes, Martin added.

I was floored when I first read that.

We are just a little over one month into this war.

What will things look like three or four months from now if this war is still raging?

Just about everything that we buy either contains plastic or comes wrapped in plastic.

If you sit down and think about this for a while, it will hit you like a ton of bricks.

We are in an enormous amount of trouble.

The only way out would be for this war to come to a rapid conclusion.

But that isn’t going to happen.

The IRGC is running the show in Iran, and they will not accept any of President Trump’s offers.

The IRGC has issued their own list of demands which the U.S. and Israel can never possibly accept, and they have announced that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz “will never return to its former state” even after the war ends…

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Naval Command said in a post to X overnight that the Strait of Hormuz “will never return to its former state, especially for America and Israel.”

“The navy of the IRGC is in the process of completing the operational preparations for the announced plan of Iran’s officials for the new order in the Persian Gulf,” the statement said.

Iran wants to be given control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as part of any potential deal.

There is no way that is going to happen.

So the war is going to continue, and control of the Strait of Hormuz is going to have to be taken from Iran by force.

Sadly, global supplies of oil are just going to keep getting tighter and tighter, and fuel prices are going to continue to rise.

Here in the United States, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has already risen by 86 cents over the past month…

The national average now stands at $4.11 per gallon, up about 86 cents from a month ago, according to AAA. Costs are climbing across nearly every region, with some states already well above the U.S. average.

On the West Coast, drivers are seeing the highest costs, with prices reaching $5.92 per gallon in California and $5.37 in Washington. Meanwhile, on the East Coast, gas prices have surpassed $4 in several areas, including $4.27 in Washington, D.C., and $4.06 in New York.

If the war cannot be brought to a quick end, this is just the beginning.

Even more importantly, the average price of a gallon of diesel has risen by $1.45 over the past month…

Diesel has climbed to $5.61, up about $1.45 over the past month. As a key fuel for freight, shipping, and public transportation, it is particularly sensitive to refining capacity constraints and global supply disruptions.

Our farms run on diesel.

Nearly our entire trucking industry runs on diesel.

The price of nearly everything that you purchase on a regular basis is affected by the price of diesel, and so this is really bad news for all of us.

In California, the average price of a gallon of diesel has reached a whopping $7.67 per gallon…

The average price of the fuel – used to power everything from trucks to industrial machinery – sat at a statewide $7.67 per gallon Sunday, according to the American Automobile Association, also the most Californians have ever paid.

Now experts are warning the huge surge is going to hit consumers in the pocket by summer, with everyday goods set to skyrocket.

Just weeks ago, on March 2, diesel in California was $3.90 a gallon, meaning prices have doubled in a month.

Jet fuel prices are going through the roof too.

In fact, they have approximately doubled since the end of February…

Jet fuel prices, as a result, reached $195 at the end of March, up nearly $100 from the end of February when the war began. And as the war drags on, jet fuel is getting harder to come by for countries that don’t produce their own or have limited supplies.

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Biro said during a podcast interview earlier this week that the loss of oil in April would be twice what was lost in March, resulting in a growing scarcity of jet fuel and diesel.

“We are seeing that in Asia, but soon, I think, in April or May, it would come to Europe,” he said.

Supplies of jet fuel have gotten extremely tight.

We are already witnessing chaos in some parts of Asia, and we are being warned that Europe could be next…

June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said in a post on X that jet fuel requires specialized storage, which means there is less stored than other products, like gasoline.

“Travel has gotten a lot more expensive in Asia, with many airlines adding fuel surcharges or downright canceling flights,” she wrote. “Europe is facing imminent jet fuel supply shortages. Brace yourselves.”

If you need to fly somewhere, I would do it soon.

Flights have been canceled all over Asia, and now European airlines are starting to follow suit…

Lufthansa is also prepping for the worst, a spokesperson told Bloomberg. The company has teams developing crisis response plans, and could ground up to 40 aircraft, the spokesperson said.

A spokesperson for Scandinavian Airlines said it would cut about 1,000 flights due to the surge in jet fuel costs, The Wall Street Journal reported.

This is not something that is going to happen someday.

This is happening now.

And even if the war ended tomorrow, conditions would not go back to the way that they were before.

In fact, Mark Zandi is warning that we might not ever see pre-war prices again…

“I don’t think we’re going back to the pre-war prices for the foreseeable future,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics and among the first economists to predict the 2008 financial crisis, speaking with Politico for its report Monday. “Certainly won’t be this year, won’t even be next year. Might not be ever.”

There is no way that global energy markets can simply snap back to pre-war conditions.

Too much energy infrastructure has already been destroyed.

If Iran does not agree to make a deal before Trump’s Tuesday deadline, things will get a whole lot worse.

This is the greatest challenge to the global economy that most of us have seen in our entire lifetimes.

For now, most people living in the western world continue to believe that everything will work out just fine somehow, but reality will give them a wake up call soon enough.

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