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7 Potential Economic Effects Of A War With Iran

As each day passes, war in the Middle East seems increasingly likely.  The truth is that Israel will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and Iran is absolutely determined to continue developing a nuclear program.  So right now Israel and Iran are engaged in a really bizarre game of "nuclear chicken" and neither side is showing any sign of blinking.  In fact, even prominent world leaders are now openly stating that it is basically inevitable that Israel is going to strike Iran.  For example, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi recently made the stunning admission that the G8 nations "absolutely believe" that Israel will attack Iran.  But a conflict between Israel and Iran would not just affect the Middle East - it would have staggering implications for the rest of the globe.

So just what would a war between Israel and Iran mean for the world economy?

The following are 7 potential economic effects of a conflict between Israel and Iran....

#1) The Price Of Oil Would Skyrocket - One of the very first things a war with Iran would do is that it would severely constrict or even shut down oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.  Considering the fact that approximately 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, world oil markets would instantly be plunged into a frenzy.  In fact, some analysts believe that oil prices would rise to $250 per barrel.

So are you ready to pay 8 or 10 dollars for a gallon of gasoline?  What do you think that would do to the U.S. economy?

The truth is that every single transaction that we make every single day is influenced by the price of oil.  If the price of oil suddenly doubles or triples that would absolutely devastate the already very fragile U.S. economic system.

#2) Fear Would Explode In World Financial Markets - Even without a war, the dominant force in world financial markets in 2010 is fear.  We are already seeing unprecedented volatility in financial markets around the globe, and there is nothing like a war to turn fear into a full-fledged panic.  And what happens when panic grips financial markets?  What happens is that they crash. 

#3) World Trade Would Instantly Seize Up - Once upon a time the economies of the world were relatively self-contained, so a war in one area would not necessarily wreck economies all over the globe.  But all of that has changed now.  Today, the economies of virtually every nation are highly interdependent.  That has some advantages, but it also has a lot of disadvantages.

If a war with Iran did break out, nations all over the globe would start taking sides and world trade would seize up.  The global flow of goods and services would be severely interrupted.  That would be enough to push many nations around the world into a full-blown depression.

#4) Military Spending Would Escalate - Even if the United States was not pulled directly into a conflict between Israel and Iran, there is little doubt that the U.S. would be spending a lot of money and resources to support Israel and to build up military assets in the region in case a wider war broke out.  The U.S. has already spent somewhere in the neighborhood of a trillion dollars on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  If war does break out with Iran the amount of money the U.S. government could be forced to spend could be absolutely staggering.   

The truth is that the U.S. is already drowning in debt.  At this point the U.S. government is over 13 trillion dollars in debt, and another Middle East war is certainly not going to help things.    

#5) Russia Would Greatly Benefit - Russia and other major oil producers outside of the Middle East would greatly benefit if a war with Iran erupts.  Russia is already the number one oil producer in the world, and if supplies out of the Middle East were disrupted for any period of time it would mean an unprecedented windfall for the Russian Bear. 

#6) Massive Inflation - A huge jump in the price of oil and dramatically increased military spending by the U.S. government would most definitely lead to price inflation.  We would probably see a dramatic rise in interest rates as well.  In fact, it is quite likely that if a war with Iran does break out we would see a return of "stagflation" - a situation where prices are rapidly escalating but economic growth as a whole is either flat or declining.

#7) The Price Of Gold Would Go Through The Roof - When there is a high degree of uncertainty in world financial markets, where do investors turn?  As we have seen very clearly recently, they turn to gold.  As high as the price of gold is now, the truth is that it is nothing compared to what would happen if a war with Iran breaks out.  When times get tough, we almost always see a flight to safety.  Right now none of the major currencies around the globe provide much safety, so investors are increasingly viewing precious metals such as gold and silver as a wealth preservation tool. 

War is never pleasant.  If war with Iran does break out it could potentially set off a chain of cascading events that would permanently alter the world economy for the rest of our lifetimes. 

So let us hope that war does not erupt.  It wouldn't be good for anyone.  But the reality is that at this point it almost seems like a foregone conclusion.  Tensions in the Middle East are rising by the day, and all sides are certainly preparing as if they fully expect a war to happen.

Even without a war with Iran, incredibly hard economic times are on the way, so if a war does happen it could mean a complete and total economic disaster. 

So what do you think?  Will a war with Iran devastate the world economy?  Feel free to leave a comment with your opinion....

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  • Max

    I think the whole point of going to war with Iran is to devastate the world economy so a new, alternate economic, social, and political system can be created.

    What that system will be I have no idea, but its coming.

    • KC

      You are absolutely correct, Max. Go to Alex Jones’ site, infowars.com to get the details on what the globalist intend to do.

  • Concerned Reader

    Iran’s rise to power is thanks to President George W, Bush and his Iraq war. Thanks to him we removed a historic enemy of Iran, Saddam Hussein, from the picture and they are now poised to take over the Middle East. Remember in the 1980s when Iraq and Iran went to war? During the first portion of that war Iran was whipping Iraq’s behind and so Reagon sent none other than our good pal Mister Rumsfeld to Iraq to sell him WMDs. We did this in hopes of preventing one powerful force from taking over the world’s oil supply. We succeeded up until 2003 when we removed Saddam from power and now the Shia muslims dominate Iraq. So, Iran has virtually conquered Iraq without firing a shot, but by parlimentary elections.

    Remember that before Saddam used chemical weapons against Iran that country suffered a million casulties and would not give up the fight. The people of Iran are the descendants of the Persians, one of the fiercest warrior cultures to ever walk the Earth in anchient times. Fighting them would be equivlaent to Japan during the second world war. They would not stop fighting for anything once they are awakened.

    There is an eight potential effect of war with Iran and that is a world wide reprisal(Jihad?) against Jews, mainly from Muslims. Factor in that there about one billion plus Muslims in the world and about fifteen million Jews world wide. It is not too far fetched to see such places as Europe and America go up in smoke as war erupts between these two groups. To back this claim, all one has to do is look at the rising anti-Semitism that is sweeping the globe. The amount of anti-Jewish violence that could come about would make the 1930s pale in comparison.

    It is safe to assume that war between Iran and Israel will break out because they are the two toughest kids in the Middle Eastern neighborhood. However, the royal families of such countries as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait have secretly met with Israeli officilas and gave them their blessing to stop the encroaching threat of Iran into their territory. If war does not break out soon, I estimate that in about ten years Iran will have already spread its sphere of influence into these countries to gain control of their oiul supplies and in effect rule the world economy.

    I have heared that the Israeli people are always prepared for war at any time. I have also read that their high school graduates are required to serve in their military for a period of time. They have a very strong military and a sense of defending their own from enemies. They have proven in the past that they can prevail against impossible odds in war. But if a major war breaks out in the middle east, will this be enough for them to survive? Most likely no. You see, Israel’s military has been portrayed as a smaller version of America’s military, but they are still dependant on the world’s super power to step in on their behalf if things get to tough.

    However, some of the things that I have seen from the Obama administartion makes me think they are not interested in protecting Israel if they were in a bind. What happens if you big brother leaves you among a bunch of mean, older kids? The little brother will have to step up and beat the bigger kids to a pulp or suffer a humiliating defeat. The Obama administartion abandoning Israel adds credence to the idea that they will attack Iran soon because they have no choice.

    I would wager that Israel could take this war on their own for a short period of time, but without the help of America they are ultimatly doomed. I could imagine the Muslims swolling Israel whole unless America stepped in to save them. If not, they will ultimatly go nuclear and deliver serious damage to their enemies and both sides will fall. Basically a scenario where you defeat your enemy, but he has caused so much damage to you that you will soon collapse yourself.

    Even if America did intervene on Israel’s behalf, I am not sure how we could help them. The two wars that we are in and the operating cost of our over seas empire have now crossed the one trillion dollar mark. America is not in any kind of shape to fight another war, let alone a potential world war, which this would escalate into if it were to happen. Coupled will mass unemployemnt, debt, the collapsing environment(gulf oil soill?), wide open borders, fall of the dollar, mistrust of political leaders, etc, I do not see any way we could help with out faltering ourselves. It is trully sad that countries that look to us for guidance, leadership and protection will soon have to depend on themselves for these things.

    In conclusion, If you are a religious person, I implore you to pray like there is no tomorrow. Pray for two things. First, pray that this war will not occur for mankind’s sake. Second, if the war does break out, and which it most likely will, pray that God intervenes before things get too nasty.

  • Jason

    Iran at worst is putting itself in a position that if it is attacked it can develop a nuclear weapon on short notice and at best Iran has a peaceful civilian program. Iran has never been in breach of the IAEA yet the US still wishes to impose crippling sanctions and at the same time turns a blind eye to India, pakistan and Israel which are not even in the IAEA.

    Ron Paul was correct when he said that this was deja-vous all over again: Iraq had crippling sanctions, then was demonized in the media for having WMD’s (which it did not) and then was attacked.

    A possible reason for the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was that Saddam Hussein started selling its oil in Euros in 2000. After a while the dollar started to plunge in value against the Euro. So if the US wished to save the dollar something had to happen. The rest is history.
    Guess what. Iran is now selling its oil in
    non-dollar currencies. If Iran traded its oil in dollars I’m sure the US would put a ‘leash’ on Israel and stop punishing Iran for its Nuclear program which under international law it is allowed to have. Simply put the Iranian nuclear program is a smoke-screen to get Iran under US control.

    Ahmadinejad never threatened to “wipe israel from the map”. This was a mistranslation. He said that “the regime occupying Jerusalem will vanish from the page of time”. In context,he was refering to regime change not mass murder. Another thing: why do people listen to ahmadinejad in the first place. He doesn’t get to make the call for Iran to go to war. It is the Supreme Leader Khamanei who does.

    An attack by Israel on the Iranian nuclear facilities would be a great injustice to the Iranian people. It would be like their ‘Pearl Harbour’ or ’9-11′.

    Let’s hope that cool heads prevail or the World will be plunged into a new dark age.

  • Matt

    I don’t think it will devastate the world economy no more than the Iraq and Afghan wars have, and the 2008 oil spike did. There will be a temporary painful adjustment period of a month or so but nations will adapt to the situation – they will have to.

  • sharonsj

    Israel faces a dilemma. If they wait until Iran completes the bomb and then drops it on Israel, a huge percentage of the population would be killed. Israel would then wipe out a good deal of Iran in retaliation. Or Israel drops a bomb on Iran first in order to save its people from death. There is no good outcome.

    In addition, the problem is not the Iranian people but the mullahs in charge of the country. Iranians want them out but are unable to overthrow the government or get their own people legally elected. America needs to more covertly to help them and maybe a war can be averted.

  • micheal patriot

    brace yourselves humanity you are in for a rude awkening

  • sharonsj

    Yes, the translation was in dispute and it appears the corrected version is “vanish from the pages of time.” However,the inference was that Iran was going to help Israel vanish; otherwise everyone wouldn’t be in such a tizzy.

    Still, I hope there is no attack on Iran and that covert methods are used to overthrow the tyrannical regime.

  • Professor G

    The price of oil will not rise significantly. The lesson of the last few years, if you’ve been perceptively observing, is that price spikes are caused by corporations manipulating the commodities futures markets. Harpers or the Atlantic had an excellent and eye opening article about how corporations manipulate the commodities market, foodstuffs, etc, in order to raise prices. These corporations can and do buy MASSIVE amounts of futures contracts. When you read the article and understand the significance of this, you will literally be dancing on your head. You will want to tell everyone that you see the light. You do not have to be a professor or a genius of some sort to understand it.

    A very important problem is nuclear weapons technology proliferation. We have to draw the line in the sand, unfortunately. Colleague of mine produced a super simple graph related to an algorithm that he developed that shows that the chances of a nuclear catastrophe is inevitable. His algorithm takes into account all the things that can go wrong, not just a deliberate attack by the theocratic nutcases.

  • Professor G

    Find and read the article. A point of clarification is that it the “Too Big to Fail (TBF)financial institutions that are the big buyers of the commodities futures. They fu_king control the world; could starve us to death by manipulating the access to oil and food prices through controlling the commodities futures markets. The wonderful news is that there are no federal laws to protect Americans. Third World denizens — well, they are in real trouble.

    The current financial legislation is complete horse-s.. The best we can do is to reenact Glass-Steagall, which would provide some modicum of control over the investment potentialities of financial institutions.

    As for the disaster in the Gulf, forget about President Obama ever bringing BP to account. Great Britain is a colonial power without any real productive capacity/industries. It’s furtherance as a global player is built on its now post-colonial control over oil, i.e. BP, inter alia and its military. If Obama fucs BP, then they will drop their support in Afghanistan. President Obama cannot let that happen.

    BTW, I am a professor of political economy; I know what I am talking about. I graduated from one of the most elite universities.

    People need to watch world events like a hawk. I would make preparations for hard times. It won’t be the apocalypse, but it will be a lot like life in the third world or our ghettos in the U.S. We are returning to post-WWII standard of living. Yes, the times that your grandpappy told you about — “We were poor as dirt, but we didn’t know it…” U.S. hegemony resulted from our victory in WWII, but has been in decline since 1973.

    The most important thing to do is to pay off debts NOW. Make the f-ing sacrifices and do it. The extremists are about to take power, and they just don’t get it. They will make bankruptcy next to impossible; you will see. The financial institutions are VERY powerful and will never cease pursuing you given that they will have no limits. Start by making a five year plan to pay off as much as possible. Give up the LCD t.v. and the worthless state edumacation. It is much better to live free than to live like on a worm on your knees.

  • Professor G

    BTW: I am not a libertarian; I am a progressive Democrat. Libertarianism is a utopian ideal that is not well suited to our “modern” world. In a world of nation states, citizens cannot function atomistically; everyone has a collective responsibility. I am sorry Glenn Beck, but that is NOT socialism, Marxism, etc. It is why I support the draft/conscription. If a president wants a war, then he needs to enlist the support of all eligible citizens. I wonder how many Americans would have cheered the invasion of Iraq back in 2003 had there been a draft?

  • Simon

    Definately time to invest in the yellow metals….if you can not afford gold then silver is a very good second choice…..

    Something nobody (I dont think) has mentioned is if this financial meltdown accures the will be a HUGE FOOD SHORTAGE. So before you buy gold and silver BUY FOOD AND WATER PURIFIERS because silver and gold doesnt taste nice!!!!!

  • John

    i honestly think both countries should be blown off the map, nuke em BOTH!!!

  • John O’Neill

    The saddest news last week was the passage of the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010 on June 24, 2010. All 99 scum bag senators and all but 8 members of the House voted for this bill that will put sanctions on the U.S., not Iran. If Israel bombs Iran, it’s pretty much game over and I think that is exactly what the pig demons want – total mayhem. Unfortunately, I think it’s on the way.

  • Jerry W

    I agree that war with Iran would be devastating. I believe the future looks pretty bleak already, and added stresses from a large scale war would multiply the effect. On the other hand the military-industrial complex would do very well.

  • justamom

    Last year at this time, a war in the Middle East seemed unlikely, but the climate is rapidly changing.
    Israeli Vice Prime Minister, Moshe Yaalon, warned Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, last Saturday to choose between “the bomb” and survival.
    War between Israel and Iran may not be so far off. For those interested in reading a little more, Joel Rosenburg’s blogspot has some further dialogue.
    http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/

    It seems that in this article Michael raises some excellent points re the economic impact of a war in the Middle East, some of which I had not considered before today. The US economy is fragile at best and a ME war could trigger the collapse many have been predicting for decades.

  • Concerned Reader

    Here is a list of events that I think will happen if war were to break out with Iran:

    The Federal government reinstates the draft and requires all citizens between the ages of 18 and 35-years-old to join the military and fight in the war. As a result, massive anti-war demonstrations take place across the country in a magnitude not seen since the 1960s, if not bigger.

    While opposition to the draft takes the place, the global economy begins to quickly contract and signs show up very rapidly here at home. Unemployemt reaches some where in the ball park of about thirty percent or more. Millions of people are out of work, no one has the ability to heat their homes and people are disillusioned with our leaders to trust them enough to lead us into a war, let alone win.

    The economy continues to get worse and it finally reaches the breaking point. Wide spread open rebellion begins to take place as militias and every fringe person with a gun comes out of the wood work to try and settle things themselves. As a result, the federal government enacts emergency powers to dissolve the constitution and instate martial law. Any person found dissenting would be rounded up and detained indefinently with no trial. At this point, this country is now in the early onset of a second civil war/revolution.

    However, things would be very bleak inside of this country, but outside, things would be even worse. From here I will break down each continent on the planet and describe what could come about as a result of going to war with Iran.

    Europe:

    As this blog has described in numerous articles about the falling state of the European economies. For the last fifty years, Europe had been a socialit heaven. Now the bills are coming due and no one wants to give up the good life. We are already seeing the consequences of austerity measures in such places as Greece and soon to be the other bigger countries of Europe. As thier debt crisis escalates, the countries of Europe will fold like a cheap wallet and descend into civil war with each other.

    Not only this, but the growing hegemony of the Muslim population of Europe will come out and take advantage of the turmoil to establish dominance in those nations. As I mentioned before, if Israel attacked Iran we would see a world wide reprisal against Jews from Muslims. While the bulk of this conflict will take place in the Middle East, the secondary bulk will come about on mainland Europe.

    Afghanistan-Pakistan region and India:

    Currently America has entered its tenth year of the war in Afghanistan. However, if a new war broke out in Iran we would most likely have to pull our troops out of the Af-Pak region to fight in the new theater. Never the less, we are going to have to pull out of that region any way, mainly due to economic factors. When we finally do pull out, the region will return to Taliban hegemony.

    Since the global economy has contracted, or collapsed at this point, the Pakistan military is no longer backed by the US or the IMF. The Taliban surges like a wild fire to reclaim lost territory and then some. At this point the nuclear weapons at Pakistan’s disposal fall into the hands of the Taliban. They are now a nuclear power.

    Eventually the Taliban begin to spread into the Kashmir region. This places them in a precarious situation in which war breaks out between the two nuclear powers.

    Mexico, Central and South America:

    The author of this blog has written several articles about the threat of Mexico. With the collapse of the global economy, Mexico plunges into revolution and the narco gangs take full control of the country and turn it into a narco state. Mexico becomes to America what Lebanon is to Israel. As a result, millions of refuges flee north into America at much faster pace than what is currently going on. Once they get here, they begin to set up hegemony with the intent of never returning home. This exsacerbates all the issues facing America in this scenario.

    As for Central and South America, all one has to do is look at how the Leftist and anti-American regimes are popping up all over the continent. The best example is none other than Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. Imagine his country gaining a million man army and teaming up with the other leftist countries to use a failed Mexico as a spring board to launch an invasion of the United States.

    Africa:

    The contracting economy dissolves any kind of foreign aid to African countries. I do not see much changing except that all the issues facing that continent will escalate.

    Finally, Asia:

    It is debatable as to what would happen to China in this scenario. Would they implode, or would they have no choice but to intervene on Iran’s behalf because of the oil. At this point, I am going to go with the latter to an extent. China is currently experiencing mass unemployed with an estimated 20 million idle hands thanks to the bad economy. Their growth and stability is dependant solely on the ability to have easy access to petroleum. They lost the chance of having an easy access to oil when Iraq was invaded. They will not allow this to happen again with Iran.

    However, this scenario sees China breaking out of their shell to march on Asia and the rest of the Pacific region. Secondly, with the US out of the picture of being the world’s policemen, North Korea quickly takes over the south with minimal effort.

    What will ultimatly happen is that one war will escalate into a world of wars. No place on Earth will safe and the people caught in the middle will have no choice but to pick a side and do their best to survive.

  • http://erectuswalksamongstus.com Max Hardwood

    China will Indeed Invervene! Concerned Reader at 4:53, WOW! What a lucid commentary! You are truly a visionary!

  • whoisbiggles

    War with Iran will happen if and when the regime in America needs a distraction from the economic hardship the populace will be facing.

    Visit the IAEA website nand review some of their reports. Every supposed secret nuclear site has been disclosed to the IAEA earlier than the required timeframes specified.

    Iran makes sure all its dues are paid and according to the IAEA they are in compliance.

    I wonder which country will illegally supply Israel with a replacement nuclear reactor for the 50 year old one that the French didn’t supply to the facility that doesn’t exist in Dimona.

    Work will come and just like Iraq where no WMD were found there will be no Atomic bombs in Iran because as the US state department has previously advised the Iranian nuclear stockpile is hopelessly contaminated and can’t be purified to anywhere the necessary standards.

    But at least a war will help reduce the unemployment rate in the US.

  • ‘Merka-the-Broke-N

    Concerned reader’s comments above has the war with Iran outbreak scenario pretty much nailed pretty well. I wonder if Obama and 2 or more people in Congress have this same outlook?? Doubtful as they operate on GROSS NEGLIGENCE, GROSS INEPTITUDE, GROSS INCOMPETENCE, GROSS CORRUPTION AND ABOVE ALL, GROSS STUPIDITY. Bottom line now is the U.S. can NO LONGER stand down its enemies, has two UNDECLARED WAR FRONTS in Iraq and Afghanistan bleeding the VOLUNTARY MILITARY and Treasury dry, CHINA JUST SITS BACK AND WINS AND ANTAGONIZES US WITH ITS SUPPORT OF ENEMY #1 N. KOREA, there is NO U.S. DRAFT AT THE DAWN OF WWIII,THIS IS REALLY NOTHING SHORT OF MIND-BOGGLING IRRESPONSIBILITY AS USUAL ON THE PART OF U.S. GOVERNMENT. Of course, with no LEGAL DECLARATION of War by Congress, THERE CAN BE NO “LEGAL DRAFT”, and with no legal draft, there can be no EMERGENCY REPLENISHMENT OF MILITARY FORCES NOR ANY PROPER MILITARY PREPARATION FOR A FUTURE “REAL WAR” AS IN WWIII. It appears to me the BARN’S ON FIRE, the cart’s before the horse, and all the King’s horses and all the King’s men are about to go down in pitiful flames. THE END, as THE END OF THE LINE U.S.A. (and world!).

  • Propatria

    Battle of the fittest. After a nukestrike or any other terrorstrike on the free world, like oiltankers exploding in harbours, exploding chemicalplants, airports, metrostations and perhaps even nuclearplacements, there’s also the possibility of contaminating waterdepots, wells etcetera. Remember western folkz are infidel that may be killed by any means nescessary to bring back the apocalypse that is so much wished by ahmedinejad to bring back his god on earth. Buy barbed wire and gold it is i presume.

  • Amit ACOHEN

    As an Israeli and Jewish,
    Our bible states that we will fight against
    massive armies and win

    • No to war.

      Where does it say that? It says we lose! So does the Christian Old Testament!

  • Buckworth Jackson

    LOt’s of good thinking shown in the previous post.
    Fprget gold, it’s beyond that now. Think Brass, Lead, copper and means to propel said objects towards those who are trying to take you freedom/life/stash.

  • Alex

    History has tendency to repeat itself. If we go back 75 years and substitute Iran for Germany, we’ll be able to clearly see how the events will unfold.
    World powers won’t fight another war. They will eventually allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons and America will prohibit Israel to strike Iran.
    Once Iran joins the nuclear club, some sort of an agreement will be forged to allow unimpeded flow of oil from the Middle East. Israel will be a big looser.
    Feeling empowered, Iran will start an expansion. First, taking over countries with large shia population, and then overthrowing sunni governments. The world will react angrily, but nothing will be done for as long as the oil is flowing from the Middle East.
    At some point Iran will make a mistake. They will either attack Israel, impose an oil embargo on America, share nuclear technology with a terrorist group, or do something else that will not leave America any other choice by bomb Iran. This is when the war will start.

  • styler

    I don’t believe Iran will try to nuke Israel. Russia will talk them out of it. They have too much interest in the area themselves.

    Obama! should have backed the opposition party last year. Too bad.

    God keeps Israel.

  • Joe in JT

    We elected O’Bama because he said all troops home 6 months after I take office, and you can take that to the bank. Now he’s going to start another war, a much more serious one, with Iran. We should all write to O’Bama telling him if one bomb is dropped on Iran he will be imediately impeached.

    To start the war look for a naval incident between the US Navy and a Iranian cargo ship. Forced inspections on the high seas is an act of war. This will get things started. Troops are already in place on the north west border with Iran. Ships are in place, and Israel has somehow gotten permission to launch aircraft from Saudi Arabia. (see what money and bribes can do).
    This war coming in July will do one thing in the end. Solidify certain Arab countries, to form an alliance like NATO from future attacks by the beligerant West and Israel.

  • Theo

    Before you start buying up canned goods and firearms explore the possibility that there might not be a war.

    I have been looking at the veto points. In the past Admiral Fallon, General Pace and Admiral Mullen have all asserted their authority as representatives of the U.S. military that the U.S. was not going to attack Iran. I think that Mullen may have done it again but it is more cryptic than in the past. He said an attack on Iran would be “incredibly destabilizing” and at the same time says Iran getting nukes would be “incredibly dangerous” and that the U.S. is “in sync” with Israel. http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20100629_4325.php

    Russia is another veto point. In the past Putin has stepped up and warned former soviet republics not to let the U.S. launch an attack against Iran from their country. So far Russia has been fairly outspoken about being against an attack BUT Russia would like to enter the WTO which Obama has promised that he will endorse so there may have been a quid pro quo offered. Also Medvedev unlike Putin has distanced Russia from Iran recently. Also Russia did not veto the most recent U.N. Sanctions that have been passed. The shit is complicated as this article shows http://www.huffingtonpost.com/flynt-and-hillary-mann-leverett/medvedev-meets-obama-russ_b_623820.html

    Saudi Arabia was an open opponent of an attack and it looks like that has completely changed. Not only are they allowing for Israel to use their bases they seem to be openly advocating for an attack. The article says about King Abdellah “He sees Iran as being an adversary for Saudi Arabia and a dangerous one as well. He also sees diplomacy as not succeeding and insufficient to persuade Iran or to stop Iran from going nuclear,” said Henderson. He added, “ And I think he will be showing his frustration to President Obama that what the U.S. administration is trying to do now is too late and not enough.”http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/Iran-Israel-Oil-Expected-to-Top-Obama-Abdullah-Talks–97398099.html

    The American public in the past have been against an attack on Iran. At least the leaders have actively advocated for an attack leaving them open to be ridiculed by Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert. Specifically Fareed Zakaria was a strong advocate against attacking Iran. CFR/Realist types could always be counted on to be against an attack. I haven’t heard any of these people speak out this time. There is no campaign taking place at Fox News or anywhere else. This is for one of two reasons. One, the U.S. doesn’t want a war. Two, the U.S. has decided to go to war and doesn’t want the American public to know about it.

    Obama supported the sanctions but ultimately hasn’t said anything to show that he is in favor of an attack. Ultimately the decision rests with Obama. If he decides to give the order to begin the inspection of Iranian ships then an incident will occur and there will be a war.

    In the past U.S. intelligence and specifically the CIA has been strongly opposed to an attack on Iran. All fourteen intelligence services came together for the National Intelligence Estimate which strongly said that Iran had not restarted their nuclear program. This time around the CIA director Panetta has recently made a spurious remark that Iran could have two bombs in two years. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iZfgLuKrg3QBRltJ0qQMIzgIohdQD9GJM7IO0

    France and the Europeans are not really a veto point but in the past their opposition to attack made it strategically difficult for the U.S. Judging by Burlusconi’s statements and France’s vehement support I don’t think the Europeans will openly advocate for an attack but they also won’t oppose it. http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/g-8-fully-believes-israel-will-attack-iran-says-italy-pm-1.298597

    In the past elites—- capitalists—- the owners of our society have vetoed an attack on Iran. They are a hard group to read but they have representatives— spokespeople like Zibiniev Brzenzniski have openly advocated against attack. Also I think that Bill Gates used MSNBC to advocate against attack. Also the Economist magazine openly opposed an attack on Iran. Fareed Zakaria also spoke for moneyed interests in his opposition to attack. BUT capital is in trouble these days and might view an attack on Iran as a way to jump start the economy and solidify power. According to an inside story of the latest Bilderburg meeting—- you can’t put too much stock in this kind of bullshit— still it is disconcerting that they mentioned Brzezinski by name. “Turning to Iran, Tucker said that many Bilderberg members, including Brzezinski, were in favor of U.S. air strikes on Iran and were “leaning towards war,” although 100 per cent of members were not supportive of an attack.

    “Some of them in Europe are saying no we shouldn’t do it but most of them are in favor of American air strikes on Iran,” said Tucker, adding, “They’re tilting heavily towards green lighting a U.S. attack on Iran.” http://beyondthecurtain.wordpress.com/2010/06/06/jim-tucker-bilderbergers-green-light-attack-on-iran/

    In the past Robert Gates has helped to put the breaks on an Iran attack. His position is still oppositional this time. Recently he did mention Iranian missiles and the fact that Europe and Israel could be hit with hundreds of missiles in the event of an attack. http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/2010/June23/2343.html Mentioning the missiles may have been a way of emphasizing that an attack on Iran would be a disaster which he also recently said. http://news.antiwar.com/2009/04/13/gates-iran-attack-would-create-backlash/
    And Gates is no small figure. He is a made man—- a charter member of the military establishment. He ran the Tomahawk missiles from Israel to Iran in the Iran/Contra affair and unlike North and Elliot Abrams he wasn’t lambasted by the Congressional hearings(made men never are). He was also director of the CIA and he helped run a panoply of defense firms. So good old Gates might just have his finger in the dike, holding off the attack.

    The biggest veto point for an attack though could be Iran itself. Recently Ahmedinejad said that they would suspend nuclear talks until August. This was fuckin moronic. It might be a possibility that the hardliners in Iran might actually want a war in order to solidify their power. The mullahs better step in and take the god-damn deal that is on the table because there aren’t many veto points left. Recently the U.S. Russia and France have asked Iran to sit down at the table again. If they don’t take the opportunity it could mean war.
    http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/french-news/russia-france-us-propose-nuclear-meet-with-iran_80000.html

    Scorecard
    Israel: attack
    Saudi Arabia: attack
    Russia: weak opposition
    U.S. Military: mixed signals
    Gates: opposition
    Obama: wild card
    CIA: attack
    Europe: condone an attack
    American public: not applicable
    Capital: tepid support for an attack but who knows
    Iran Hardliners: acting like idiots so far

    Weather report in the Middle East: Hot and Sunny with a 30% chance of war.

  • Bolivar

    Sharonsj, I didn’t understand why you call Iranian gov-t and President “tyrannical regime”. Iran is very tolerant society and has a long tradition of democracy.
    Maybe you don’t like Iran because it doesn’t want to surrender to US and Israel bandits? Because it doesn’t want to experience the fate of Iraq?
    US killed about 1 mln people there, economy is totally ruined. USA destroyed even soil there, by tanks. Now Iraq imports even fruit and vegetables.
    Instead of democracy, you put there your marionette gov-t.
    Each time that Americans in Iraq feel a slightest threat to their lives they shoot and kill as many people as they wish. Nobody is ever punished.
    Maybe this is reasonable from US point of view? Maybe you think that these Iraq people are people of the second sort, animals, untermensch. Their only purpose in life is to pump oil for you Americans?
    Sharon, did you ever hear of Hitler?
    About the same is going on in Afghanistan. In addition, you turned it into the largest drugs producer in the world. Now thousands people die thanks to you Americans.
    I can remember also Yugoslavia, where CIA staged provocations to show that Serbs are killing innocent people. Albanians there cut human body organs from Serbs. Western “great democrats” knew everything about this. Nobody moved a finger or say a word against it. This is the freedom that you prepared for the world?
    I am curious to know why the people who rule USA are not hanged up till now for their awful crimes.
    Americans, why you don’t want to understand that Nazism is doomed? Hitler lost his case! And you will lose your system too!

  • Alex

    Those who know something about economics are probably familiar with the Kondratieff wave. One way to describe his theory is this – history repeats itself in some way every three generations. When the generation that remembers the horrors of the last wave dies, the younger generation makes the same mistakes again.
    Each wave is divided into four “seasons”. We are in the Winter season now. The last Winter season started in 1930 (Great Depression) and ended in 1949 (right after WW2.) The current cycle will not be much different. We are on our way to something even bigger than Great Depression, and there’s no doubt it will end in a nuclear war. Who will fight with who is still an open question. But one thing I know for sure. The only people in the world who will be willing to stand with us shoulder to shoulder and fight with us and die with us are Israelis. Every one else will be more than happy to stick a knife in our back. We better not sell off Israel the same way we sold off Czechoslovakia in 1938.

  • Zash82

    WW3 that’s what is going to happen. If the war erupts between israel and iran.

  • http://www.thunderdrake.com/blog/ Aury (Thunderdrake)

    I’m personally banking on commodities to go through the roof in the coming years. Paper assets are inflated. Stocks, and ESPECIALLY debt/bond/paper instruments. Eventually the free market will tell the world that something is a gross imbalance between the asset classes. I wouldn’t be surprised if oil and metals take off.

  • Concerned Reader

    I imagine I will have to lay low for a while after writing my visionary predicition of what is to come about as a consequence of going to war with Iran.

  • cosmo

    Like I really care, eh?

    The American Imperium and its hollow dummies swell deserve the end of the world they wrought on the rest of us and the world.

    Me? I am sitting back to enjoy the ruination, devastation, and ending of all the fools who believe their imperialism is the way of the world.

    Sic transit gloria munde.

  • Razor1911

    There are no WMD in Iran en there never will be any WMD in Iran.

    Iran called a Fatwa against any nuclear weapons.

    Explains what a fatwa actually is:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatw%C4%81

    The full text of the statement is online at Mathaba.net:

    Madam chair, colleagues,
    We meet when the world is remembering the atomic bombings of the civilians in Hiroshima (Aug 6) and Nagasaki (Aug 9) sixty years ago.

    The savagery of the attack, the human suffering it caused, the scale of the civilian loss of life turning individuals, old and young, into ashes in a split second, and maiming indefinitely those who survived should never be removed from our memory. It is the most absurd manifestation of irony that the single state who caused this single nuclear catastrophe in a twin attack on our earth now has assumed the role of the prime preacher in the nuclear field while ever expanding its nuclear weapons capability.

    We as members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) are proud to underline that none of the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] members of the NAM rely on nuclear weapons in any way for their security. That is not the case of many other states, who either possess nuclear weapons or are member of nuclear-armed alliances and it is such states that have taken on the self-assigned role of denying Iran its legal rights under the NPT to access the peaceful uses of nuclear technology in conformity with the treaty’s non-proliferation obligations.

    Indeed, it is not only Iran but also many members of NAM that are denied the peaceful uses of nuclear technology by some of the NPT nuclear-weapon states and their allies through the mechanisms of export controls and other denial arrangements. In 1995, they adopted the so-called “Iran clause” under which they agreed to deny nuclear technology to Iran in any circumstances.

    You can then understand, why Iran after being denied nuclear technology in violation of the NPT, had no other option but to rely on indigenous efforts with precaution on full transparency and we succeeded in developing our nuclear technology. Iran is a nuclear fuel cycle technology holder, a capability which is exclusively for peaceful purposes.

    The Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued the Fatwa that the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam and that the Islamic Republic of Iran shall never acquire these weapons. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who took office just recently, in his inaugural address reiterated that his government is against weapons of mass destruction and will only pursue nuclear activities in the peaceful domain. The leadership of Iran has pledged at the highest level that Iran will remain a non-nuclear-weapon state party to the NPT and has placed the entire scope of its nuclear activities under IAEA safeguards and additional protocol, in addition to undertaking voluntary transparency measures with the agency that have even gone beyond the requirements of the agency’s safeguard system.

  • JackieG

    I think Iran backed by Russia and China will totally devastate Israel and break Americas legs in the process.
    And so it should be.
    Iran has not aggressively attacked anyone outside its borders in over 500 years.
    Iran has been showing bullies the door for a long time.

  • http://cite wlawlor

    Why the propaganda rampup for war with Iran? Who is a bigger threat to world peace, Iran or the U.S. and Israel? Which countries talk about sanctions and military strikes almost daily? Will the U.S. and Israel EVER divulge the extent of their nuclear arsenals? Iran should do the same nuclear development as Israel. Has Israel signed the non-proliferation treaty? Does Israel snub U.N. resolutions, remember the U.N. resolutions that were used as a pretext for invading Iraq. The hypocrisy of the U.S. and Israel knows no bounds. This is what happens when the media is controlled, and we thought TASS was a propaganda weapon.

  • Rocky E

    Professor- progressive democrats have ruined this country. Following the economic collapse which is coming, as a result of their reckless fiscal policies, a much stricter policy will follow, and a much harsher world. As for Iran, you can only keep a population imprisoned for so long, and they will revolt. That may be a bonus result of the expected attack by Israel.

  • Megiddo

    Ezekiel 38-39; Isaiah 17:1…all the countries mentioned above – Iran = Persia and Turkey recently swinging toward Iran … It’s all written about, Not IF but when…SOON!

  • Joe in JT

    Have you noticed the media covering the story of U.S. nuclear subs surfacing in Subic Bay, Philipines and in South Korea and I believe Guam. Nuclear submarines nearly 2 football fields long with the power to destroy countries. The reason for this show of force in my opinion is this.

    When the U.S. and Israel attack Iran the Chinese would consider it a perfect time to invade Tiawan.
    So the US had to show signs of force in the area.

    Nuclear subs “never” surface and show the world where they are unless it’s for a specific, calculated reason. And the reason is “look out China we are here, so don’t try anything stupid”.

  • Not so Mad Max

    Anybody thinking having a nuclear-armed Iran is a good idea judging by their record has rocks in his head. Charles Krauthammer made a chilling speech on just this subject during March April time frame. Concerned Reader made some great points also anyone who thinks $10 a gallon gas is not going to affect folk’s behavior no matter for how short a time simply isn’t being realistic. Cars gas tanks will be drilled, shootings of said gas thieves, prices going to the moon, gas lines, food prices, and this band of dim wits in Washington. The only issue I have is Russia they have been trying to ride the Islamic Tiger even with their own Islamic issues I think they may make out in the short run I think in the long run they’ll be eaten (and good riddance’s).

  • Alex

    Again, if history is any guide, the WW3 will not be between America and Russia or China. It will be between civilized world and a much bigger monster – Islamo-fascism. When dirty nuclear devises start going off in out cities, when hundreds of thousands of people start dying from the terror acts that involve Anthrax, America, China, and Russia will put aside their difference and unite against their common enemy as they did during WW2.

    • Sir William

      I agree with that completely. I have some faith that The US, China, and Russia all know the outcome of a war with each other.

  • kevin bjornson

    A dramatic, long-term increase in the price of oil could be of enormous financial benefit to the US. That is, if the government allows development of our vast reserves of oil in shale and sand (mostly on government land).
    We have a 300+ year supply of that, plus oil in shallow waters that are now off-limits.

  • Squanto

    Israel, with the help of the USA, will attempt a non-nuclear attack on Iran’s enrichment facilities sometime before the middle of 2011. This will not work but it will give Israel the excuse it needs to use nuclear weapons. Iran will close the strait and oil shipments will stop. Oil and gasoline prices will skyrocket forcing the US into a severe depression. This depression will propel us into war with Iran. The war will be short and Iran will be defeated with far less effort than expected. But the ramifications will be horrendous with far reaching losses of liberties to Americans who will be asked to sacrafice their privacy at every level conceivable. Most people will support the government power grab in order to have food, safety and jobs. But there will be a large minority that understands the danger of what is happening and they won’t go without a fight. Hopefully the cowards among us that are willing to sacrifice their liberties for “security” will join the freedom fighters and keep America free. If not, all will be lost.

  • http://drtardis@aol.com DrTardis

    Concerned Reader…Don’t forget China moving to retake Taiwan. This will cause a head on conflagration with the United States.

  • me

    The World elite have already got the USA Bakken OIL area reserves up & running, in preparation for this soon to be war with IRAN. Always follow the money, they plan to dump the current financial system to bring in THEIR NEW WORLD ORDER.

  • sara

    I think that war would happen soon but i give my words to American soldier or every soldier who invades this holly land (Iran). Iran will be their graves. believe me! we are not afraid of death. we are Iranian and we do not afraid of any threat.
    we do not need any allies beacuse we have GOD

  • Watching the pump

    Expect oil to rise if we go to war with Iran..like $9 a gallon gas. This may be high enough to stop the trains and trucks from transporting our food. Time to drill baby..drill baby drill!!Time to drill Antartica or whatever..and time to put up a 1500-2000 foot high wall across the Yukon Valley and create our own electicity..not the wimpy 500 foot high Rampart Dam they wanted to build.

  • morteza

    i am from iran
    iran does not have any nuclear weapon , and does not need any nuclear weapon , but the united states of america should know that if any war happen with iran , tommorow of that day there would not be any israel anymore.

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