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Computer Models Tell Us That This Ebola Pandemic Could Soon Kill Millions

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Ebola Is Coming - Public DomainWe could potentially be on the verge of the greatest health crisis that any of us have ever seen.  The number of Ebola cases in Africa has approximately doubled over the past three weeks, and scientific computer models tell us that this Ebola pandemic could ultimately end up killing millions of us – especially if it starts spreading on other continents.  At first, many assumed that this Ebola outbreak would be just like all the others – that it would flare up for a little while and then it would completely fade away.  But that has not happened this time.  Instead, this epidemic has seemed to pick up momentum with each passing week.  Despite extraordinary precautions, hundreds of health workers have gotten the virus, and the head of the CDC says that the spread of Ebola is “spiraling out of control” and that it is “going to get worse in the very near future.”  For those that have thought that all of this talk about Ebola was just “fearmongering”, it is time for you to wake up.

Right now, the World Health Organization says that we could see the total number of Ebola cases reach 20,000 nine months from now.  But computer models created for the National Institutes of Health and the Department of Defense are projecting that Ebola could soon be growing at a rate of 20,000 cases per month

The Ebola epidemic affecting West Africa is predicted to last a further 12 to 18 months, according to U.S. scientists.

Epidemiologists have been creating computer models of the Ebola epidemic for the National Institutes of Health and the Defense Department.

The model they have created is a far less optimistic estimate than that of the World Health Organization (WHO), which last month said it hoped to contain the outbreak within nine months and 20,000 total cases.

The New York Times reports that various researchers have said the virus could grow at a rate that could be closer to 20,000 per month.

The WHO is sticking to its estimates, a spokesman said Friday.

Other scientists are even more pessimistic.

For example, a model created jointly by a researcher at the University of Tokyo and a researcher at Arizona State University has produced a “worst-case scenario” of 277,124 Ebola cases by the end of this year

The Eurosurveillance paper, by two researchers from the University of Tokyo and Arizona State University, attempts to derive what the reproductive rate has been in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. (Note for actual epidemiology geeks: The calculation is for the effective reproductive number, pegged to a point in time, hence actually Rt.) They come up with an R of at least 1, and in some cases 2; that is, at certain points, sick persons have caused disease in two others.

You can see how that could quickly get out of hand, and in fact, that is what the researchers predict. Here is their stop-you-in-your-tracks assessment:

In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.

That is a jaw-dropping number.

If we do see an explosion like that, how many millions of cases will we see by the time 2015 is through?

A different model has produced an even more jaw-dropping number.

An “econometric simulation model” created by Francis Smart at Michigan State University is predicting that a whopping 1.2 million people will die from Ebola in the next six months

An econometric simulation model based on the assumption the World Health Organization and others will be unable to control the Ebola outbreak in West Africa predicts 1.2 million people will die from the disease in the next six months.

Six months is the minimum time the WHO projects will be necessary to contain the epidemic.

In his analysis, econometrics research assistant Francis Smart at Michigan State University took seriously the conclusions of Canadian researchers who proved the strain of Ebola in the current West African epidemic could go airborne.

The Ebola virus could be transmitted between humans through breathing, Smart says.

In developing the model, Smart began with WHO’s Aug. 28 statement that the Ebola epidemic in West Africa could afflict more than 20,000 people before it is brought under control.

That has got to be the worst possible number, right?

Wrong.

The other day a prominent German virologist came forward and declared that “it is too late” to stop Ebola and that five million people will die in Sierra Leone and Liberia alone…

A top German virologist has caused shockwaves by asserting that it’s too late to halt the spread of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia and that five million people will die, noting that efforts should now be focused on stopping the transmission of the virus to other countries.

Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit of the Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine in Hamburg told Germany’s Deutsche Welle that hope is all but lost for the inhabitants of Sierra Leone and Liberia and that the virus will only “burn itself out” when it has infected the entire population and killed five million people.

“The right time to get this epidemic under control in these countries has been missed,” said Schmidt-Chanasit. “That time was May and June. “Now it is too late.”

So which of the numbers discussed above are accurate?

Only time will tell.

Meanwhile, the U.S. federal government is feverishly preparing for the worst.

This week we learned that Barack Obama is going to ask Congress for 88 million dollars for the purpose of conducting “a major Ebola offensive” in Africa.

Granted, Obama will ask Congress for money at the drop of a hat these days.  He wants 500 million dollars to arm the allies of ISIS and his reckless spending has been one of the primary factors why the U.S. national debt has risen by more than a trillion dollars over the past 12 months.

But it is still noteworthy.

Even more noteworthy is the fact that the U.S. State Department has just ordered 160,000 Hazmat suits

The U.S. State Department has ordered 160,000 Hazmat suits for Ebola, prompting concerns that the federal government is anticipating the rapid spread of a virus that has already claimed an unprecedented number of lives.

In a press release posted by Market Watch, Lakeland Industries, a manufacturer of industrial protective clothing for first responders, announced that it had signaled its intention “to join the fight against the spread of Ebola” by encouraging other suppliers to meet the huge demand created by the U.S. State Department’s order of 160,000 hazmat suits.

“With the U.S. State Department alone putting out a bid for 160,000 suits, we encourage all protective apparel companies to increase their manufacturing capacity for sealed seam garments so that our industry can do its part in addressing this threat to global health,” states the press release.

The huge bulk order of hazmat suits for Ebola has stoked concerns that the U.S. government expects the virus to continue to ravage countries in west Africa and may also be concerned about an outbreak inside the United States.

You don’t order that many Hazmat suits unless you are anticipating an outbreak of apocalyptic proportions.

And the CDC has just issued a six page Ebola checklist to hospitals to help them spot potential Ebola patients in America…

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warning hospitals and doctors that “now is the time to prepare,” has issued a six-page Ebola “checklist” to help healthcare workers quickly determine if patients are infected.

While the CDC does not believe that there are new cases of Ebola in the United States, the assumption in the checklist is that it is only a matter of time before the virus hits home.

Let us hope and pray that these precautions do not become necessary.

Because if Ebola starts spreading like wildfire in this country, we are going to see pain and suffering beyond anything that most of us have ever imagined.

Just consider what a health worker on the front lines is seeing on a day to day basis…

I wake up each morning – if I have managed to sleep – wondering if this is really happening, or if it is a horror movie. In decades of humanitarian work I have never witnessed such relentless suffering of fellow human beings or felt so completely paralysed and utterly overwhelmed at our inability to provide anything but the most basic, and sometimes less than adequate, care.

I am supervising the suspect tent, which has room for 25 patients who are likely to have Ebola – 80-90% of those we test have the virus. We administer treatment for malaria, start patients on antibiotics, paracetamol, multivitamins, rehydration supplements, food, water and juice while they wait for their results. Sometimes people have arrived too late and die shortly after arriving.

In one afternoon last week I watched five seemingly fit, healthy, young men die. I gave the first a bottle of oral rehydration solution and came back with another for the second. In the half a minute or so in which I had been away the first man died, his bottle of water spilt across the floor. The four others followed in quick succession.

Ebola is truly a terrible, terrible disease.

The moment that cases start popping up in the United States, all of our lives will instantly change.

I hope that you are getting prepared for that.

  • http://www.backlash.com Rod Van Mechelen

    The only thing standing between us and certain…survival of an Ebola epidemic is the government. Recently Dr. Jonathan V. Wright (founder of the Tahoma Clinic) noted that intravenous Vitamin C cures Ebola.

    • Tim

      I have a lot of respect for Dr. Wright.

      • GSOB

        I have respect for those that actually administer the care and the treatment prescribed by the Doctor.

        • Tim

          What? I don’t understand your comment. Buy a lot of your comments don’t make sense.

          • GSOB

            Ebola is ravaging West Africa like a wildfire out of control.

    • Richard

      Way too cheap and effective for U.S.

      • Karie

        So true!

    • GSOB

      Rectal Vitamin C
      Rectal administration of sodium ascorbate is a method that can be used in emergencies and in developing world circumstances, when IV is unavailable or unsuitable.

      Nurses can quickly be trained to mix 15-30 g of sodium ascorbate in 250-500 ml clean water and give it by enema. It can be safely and effectively used in children. An enema also removes from the bowel material that may be challenging.

      • David_R59

        Great idea. Thanks for the info.

    • David_R59

      IV_vitamin C, Hydrogen peroxide and nano-silver are being kept out of the infected area.

    • Mr. Ditba

      Lyposomal Vitamin C is as effective as intravenous Vitamin C. Look at the research that Dr. Levy of Tulane Medical School has conducted…just amazing. Ionic Silver inhaled via nebulizer will kill the virus as well. Colloidal taken orally won’t hurt either.

  • RICHARD

    What a great way to reduce the population of the world. When you see all the super rich disappear then you will know our time has come to the end. .

  • davidmpark

    Okay, here’s the best I’ve got from the notes, research, and journals – all viral infections require arterial inflammation, high amounts of initial viral bodies, high amounts of stress, and plenty of time.

    And those NBC suits (the correct PPE) is for sale online for $15-$30 each; not including appropriate gas mask, gloves, and boots.

  • Mr Samuels

    I hope and pray that this ebola kills George Soros and Warren Buffet as well as Harry Reid. They need to go.

    • alan

      They will end up being the only three survivors!

      • Mike Smithy

        Along with Cher.

  • Mr Samuels

    Trust in Jesus not Satan. Satan is A real asshole, Jesus is our savior.

  • Mr Samuels

    I say that all of this germ warfair will hit some time between 2016 and 2018. Thoes will be burt years

  • VegasBob

    I think this variant of Ebola does spread via airborne transmission, and I think it could ultimately wipe out several hundred million people.

  • http://www.escapetopatagonia.com/EscapetoPatagonia.pdf David Chu

    Computer models could also prove that an elephant can stand on its tail!

    Ebola 2.0, baby!

    Boost your immune system to its max. Kill it before it kills you via Rife machines and MMS. Search online for these two things or look up my website.

    • Tim

      “Boost your immune system to its max.”

      That’s the best advice, David.

  • alan

    Air travel is still normal, boarders still wide open, I say its not a threat to the US and Canada at a minimum.. It could wipe out Africa and India but that’s not in my realm of concern.

  • XSANDIEGOCA

    I see Obola is sending 3K troopers over to the Hot Zone. What happens when they start contracting it? Do they stay there or come back here? I mean we have medical professionals, whom we presume to know what they are doing, contracting it. What Magic Bullet does Obola have to keep our guys from getting infected? What happens if this thing starts taking hold here in America? How does this end? Is there enough vaccine? Our only experience with something of this magnitude is the Spanish Flu in 1919. That ultimately “died out” but not before over 500K died. A fourth of the population developed symptoms. It’s time to call your Congressman and start demanding some answers. The government says all is well? Then why are we buying those Hazmat suits? BTW, those who put their faith in this administration are repeatedly disappointed.

    • The Most Interesting Man

      Who’s Obola?

      • Richard

        He’s a Virus.

        • Mike Smithy

          I love it. Too funny.

        • Firstgarden

          And Norton can’t help him.

        • David_R59

          And it’s contagious. It’s called “Progressivism”.

          • Richard

            “Anti-Americanism”

    • Mike Smithy

      Zero will finally make good on his promise of “shovel ready jobs”.. Somebody is going to have to dig the graves of all those that will die of the “Obola” virus.

      • XSANDIEGOCA

        Big crisis in the Flu Epidemic of 1919. So many diseased corpses the gravediggers were coming down with it! If this takes off, it will make 1919 look like small potatoes! Mass incineration.

      • David_R59

        They will NOT be burying any bodies. To stop a true pandemic the bodies will have to be burned.
        But I do get your irony.
        We don’t get enough irony anymore.

    • watchmanonthetower

      “Obola”

      Don’t care who ya are, that’s funny right there now. Good one, X!

      ~W

    • David_R59

      Check the above post.
      If they do start to die of Ebola then you know that either I’m wrong or those 3,000 are sacrificial lambs.

    • Richard

      Obola is giving Pink Slips to some of our troops while still fighting in Afghanistan. This is All part of Planned destruction of America. Many of these Troops will contract this deadly disease and die. Others will bring it home to U.S.

  • Keith Wright

    To equate the physically and socially primitive environment in Africa with the advanced social and physical environment of the West is beyond ignorance.

    We do not go to the hospital and steal a corpse for the family to return it to our houses so we can rub all over it.

    We do not pack an entire family in a taxi to go to the hospital.

    We do not loot a hospital to remove our sick relatives to prevent them from being attacked by evil spirits.

    You need to re-think your conclusions.

    • K

      No, but we do pack people into office buildings, which are almost totally recirculated air. Theaters, restaurants, and many homes are the same. In an attempt to save energy, we have created the perfect environment for a virus.

    • Scared Economist

      Yet 4 medical workers who are trained to deal with such disease and who were equipt with protective masks, goggles, and gowns have contracted the disease. True our cleaner standards in this country will retard the spread of such a disease but it will spread. The greatest fear is it mutating and becoming airbourne. This is what they suspect happened to Bubonic Plague in the 1300s.

    • PRman

      Keith: Have you been to the South Side of Chicago lately???…

    • Mr. Ditba

      What country have you been living in? Ever heard of trains, planes and the subway? How about the airport, malls, hospitals, schools, restaurants, etc., etc… You can’t possibly be this stupid.

      • Keith Wright

        One that has a medical system which can easily contain this IF it arrives here.
        Please go back to playing with your tinfoil hat.

  • K

    As I have stated before, if ebola is not brought under control quickly. The chances of it mutating into something far more dangerous, increases with each passing day. The German expert is correct. Sadly, I believe there are some very diseased minds, who hope for that very outcome. The ultimate form of population control.

  • grumpyhillbilly

    It is absolutely mind boggling that Obama is sending over troops. Why? Then its infuriating how many Liberians have Visas to come here. Quarantine the country, and save the world.

    Am I being too cynical to think our beloved elite have a vaccine, and are looking forward to killing off a chunk of us. Be careful what you wish for, v accines have been known to fail.

    • Mad Dog

      I don’t think there’s a vaccine that’s beyond the experimental stage. For one thing, it takes hundreds of people and millions of dollars to develop a vaccine. If one existed, somebody involved in the development would have let it slip out by now. Also, even the bureaucrats and politicians know how outraged the people would be it it ever leaked out that they were covering up the existence of a vaccine.

      • Tammy Jones

        Mad dog,
        How do you think that those two doctors that were brought back to the states lived? They were given the vacine.

        • Mad Dog

          How do you think vaccines work, my friend? They stimulate the immune system to make make antibodies before the person is exposed to the organism. That way the body is prepared when the real exposure happens.
          Vaccines are of no use when you’re already sick. The body already has antibodies against the invading organism. There is no point in stimulating it to make more.

  • sharonsj

    Ebola is spreading for two reasons. One, most of the African population is ignorant, superstitious, and don’t always have proper sanitation. And two, African governments are corrupt and the leaders are stealing the money needed to purchase proper protective clothing, medical supplies, and equipment. A number of ministers in Liberia, instead of staying to coordinate a response to the outbreak, fled to the countries where their stolen money is stashed.

    If Ebola hit the U.S., we would be better prepared. Also, our population is generally in better health with good sanitation (running water, indoor bathrooms).

    • GSOB

      “….efforts should now be focused on stopping the transmission of the virus to other countries.”
      Absolutely!
      We need to stay ahead of this thing by taking all the necessary percautions possible.

      • Tammy Jones

        Everyone here is crazy if you dont think it is already in US. With our borders wide open like they are, I guarantee it is already here.

        • Firstgarden

          Well if it is, then the g o v t is keeping it under very tight wraps. Avoiding panic is their idea of ‘protecting’ us.

        • GSOB

          Now why would you want to do that?

    • jakartaman

      If this puppy goes airborne – Then all bets are off world wide

    • Mike Smithy

      Dats Raycissss.

  • Cal Wayback

    1918 again…

  • GSOB

    Is that a picture of MJ and his Thriller?

  • jakartaman

    Our leader thinks that sending 3000 us TROOPS will help.
    I can not think of a more insane thing to do.
    Since when are troops medical experts? We are putting our young men and women in harms way – Also they will be returning to the USA.
    I can only see very very bad things with this dumb move.

    • Scottsman

      Agree – “Boots on the ground ” to fight a virus but terrorist – no.

    • liberalsaretotalexcrementnewol

      they are sent to slaughter villages, sort of like clearing a path during a fire

  • Undecider

    No worries. It’s just going to kill bottom dwellers and useless feeders. In addition, people who weren’t smart enough to pay attention.

  • Anthony W

    How do we really know that this is Ebola? Could this be some other illness that we are unaware of? Why don’t we question where the source of Ebola came from and how the media has determined this is Ebola or not?

  • Robert

    Is it the same computer model that the global warming alarmists use that said the polar caps would melt off??

  • Firstgarden

    160,000 Hazmat suits?
    That should cover all of congress, judicial, and all other key federal employees. And, of course, one for Obola himself.

  • mary

    He’s sending troops to grab oil fields. He doesn’t give a rat’s patootie about africans. and ebola is a total psyops. There’s zero danger. Read nomorefakenews dot com. Jon Rappoport has done yeoman’s work on this scam, as he did on hiv and swine flu before. How many times will people be fooled by the same propaganda over and over. it’s pathetic.

    • GSOB

      Woe to those who rise early in the morning to run after their drinks, who stay up late at night till they are inflamed with wine.

  • toofunny

    Sending over troops?
    Is Gay Veteran going too??

    • Gay Veteran

      hey junior, be a man and march down to your local army recruiting center

  • Scottsman

    Ok not to diminish in any way the seriousness of this virus, but for some perspective, the Spanish Flu of 1918 is thought to have killed 50,000,0000 world wide – now that is a Pandemic !

    Then again, we are bringing infected people right into our country as opposed to treating them there so our stupidity seems pretty astonishing to me – I guess anything could happen

    • David_R59

      And to think, it started on a US Army base in Kentucky.

  • watchmanonthetower

    What happens when a difficult-to-catch-but-almost-always-lethal virus meets and mingles with an easy-to-catch-but-rarely-deadly pathogen?

    Consider: if the Enterovirus-D68 mutates with the current genetically-altered form of Ebola (EVD has already mutated some 400 times since the outbreak began to spiral) we can find ourselves trapped in a nightmare plague inside of a fortnight.

    Barry said today that Ebola will not be a problem in the US; that is unsettling because as a trend, whatever Barry says tends to be the exact opposite of what really happens.

    Prepare…or perish.
    ~Watchman

  • Annette Calkins

    Actually, I heard that Obola is going to send those troops to protect his homeland…Kenya!

    • David_R59

      That’s funny, I always thought O’Bama was Irish.

  • David_R59

    Why would anyone in their right mind trust the UN, WHO, UNICEF, CDC or any other similar agency? The most obvious inexpensive cures are not being used or even allowed into the infected area.
    Substances such as nano-silver, colloidal silver, Hydrogen peroxide, or even IV-vitamin C. There’s no money to be made in them by the drug companies; they’d rather millions die in order to test their experimental drugs.
    The US military has already tested nano-silver and has found it to be effective but are keeping it a secret from the general public.
    All part of the master-plan to reduce the World’s excess population with only the “right” people having access to the cure.
    If an Ebola pandemic gets to the rest of the world you’re on your own. Neither the police, hospital workers or anyone else working in a public service job will turn up for work (that is unless they have nano-silver). They’d rather stay home where they and their family are safe.

  • Bruce

    “IF” we have an outbreak of ebola in this country look out! Our economy will most certainly collapse. People will be horrified to go to work, resturants, theaters or malls. No one buying cars, going to work to build them. Transportation grinding to a halt just as if we ran out of oil. Just as we think there will be a break in the infection rate peope will venture out for food and medicine. Then round two hits.
    This is not the time to procrastinate. Get food stored, medicines and ammunition stocked up and be prepared for what is a very real possibility.

    • David_R59

      The police probably won’t turn up to work either, preferring to stay home to protect their family. Many hospital workers will call in sick. Paramedics, taxi drivers, bus drivers, and truck drivers will also be off the job.
      You’ll be on your own.

  • Mudpie

    It is INSANE for Obama to send over thousands of American soldiers, who are amazing people but generally young and subject to human imperfection, to deal with this. Soldiers fly in C-17 and other transport planes, shoulder to shoulder. All it takes is one infected person to slip through. This is a catastrophe waiting to happen. What a blooming idiot.

  • Delilaih Taylor

    ask God into your life then don’t worry

  • Sandbagger

    So, I’m thinking the moment Ebola shows these numbers in the U.S., millions of school children will be truant; as will their parent (caregiver, etc.) if they have half a brain.

    Talk about an economic collapse fuse!

  • Sandbagger

    Are we allowed to market our wares here?

    • Dr. Rima

      Tell m something, Sandbagger: would you prefer that I tell you that there is a safe, simple solution which will stop Ebola in its tracks, save my life and that of my loved ones but I won’t tell you precisely what it is or where you can get it to protect you and yours?
      Those who want to follow up on the info I provided will do so.
      The rest will run the risk of dying horribly.
      I do not see anything offensive about telling people what they need to know in an emergency situation. And that is most certainly what this is.
      Yours in health and freedom,
      Dr. Rima

  • Steveng

    Computer models, eh? Isn’t it computer models that predict the world-wide destruction by global warming?

  • GetHubNub

    The U.S. government wants ebola here, they want to bring it for their plans of martial law and tyranny to collapse our country.

  • Hugo

    Where are the pictures of all those dying? The people dead in the streets? Why no media coverage showing actual victims bleeding? Could these possibly be a false flag to scare us into more vaccines ? Read jimstonefreelance dot com. He has any interesting theory.

  • Liz

    Hi MIchael, I agree Ebola is a problem but I need to make a couple of points with you.
    First off, the United States is full of Borrelia infections, or Lyme Disease. While it doesn’t kill a person immediately, it does impact the nation in a couple of ways.
    First off, it’s lied about. Americans are not treated for this disease. It completely disables a human being untreated. It causes enormous financial repercussions for the untreated victim and their family.
    Secondly, testing is flawed on purpose. The two largest labs in America only report negatives!! The CDC doesn’t want to accept DNA titers for diagnosis, instead relying on outdated methods that only yield negative results.
    Thirdly, treatment is very costly. Many insurance companies refuse to pay because of the testing controversy.
    The disease disables large number of Americans yearly, causing enormous financial harm to the patients and their families.
    Remember Bird Flu, the pandemic that wasn’t? That was coming to the US via airplanes from the East?
    Please remember before you panic on Ebola that a lot of money will be made scaring you and the rest of the country.
    Yes indeed I believe Ebola can get the US. Yes it kills people quickly. But no, I don’t believe the hype around this disease. I do believe someone ( or corporation, since they are ” people”) will make a lot of money scaring the public into spending money taking vaccines that may or may not work.
    Remember back in the 80’s, the gay community literally had to march in the streets and threaten to spill blood in order to get AIDS treated? I do.
    Real diseases that are here and that will maim or kill you are left without treatment.
    Exotic scary things are hyped. Lots of money to be made in prevention and vaccinations. Meanwhile, sick people don’t get what they need in the world’s richest country……
    Think about it.

  • lilbear68

    a virus like ebola has only 1 directive and that is to survive and multiply and in order to do that it must adapt/evolve. the authorities are lying when they say getting infected by ebola is difficult and needs to be direct contact with other infected body fluids. they lie like this to control panic. many ppl fail to look up historical outbreaks. granted the Reston Va. outbreak happened years ago and same for the Marberg (sp) outbreak but the Reston Va. outbreak was shown to be airborne in a controlled lab. if it happened once it can happen again and those cheap gauze masks wont even slow down a virus.
    now we have brought infected ppl into the country

  • Fleendar the magnificent

    One way or another, they WILL instate martial law in America to keep Obama in power.

    They tried all other methods to incite riots, rage and national fury? They failed. NOW his keepers, the ‘invisible’ government are afraid and desperate. They have their DUMBs to hide in. We do not. So their unleashing a horrible virus or disease upon us does not worry them.

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