The Beginning Of The End
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Exactly Like 7 Years Ago? 2014 Is Turning Out To Be Eerily Similar To 2007

Bubble - Photo by Jeff KubinaThe similarities between 2007 and 2014 continue to pile up.  As you are about to see, U.S. home sales fell dramatically throughout 2007 even as the mainstream media, our politicians and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke promised us that everything was going to be just fine and that we definitely were not going to experience a recession.  Of course we remember precisely what followed.  It was the worst economic crisis since the days of the Great Depression.  And you know what they say - if we do not learn from history we are doomed to repeat it.  Just like seven years ago, the stock market has soared to all-time high after all-time high.  Just like seven years ago, the authorities are telling us that there is nothing to worry about.  Unfortunately, just like seven years ago, a housing bubble is imploding and another great economic crisis is rapidly approaching.

Posted below is a chart of existing home sales in the United States during 2007.  As you can see, existing home sales declined precipitously throughout the year...

Existing Home Sales 2007

Now look at this chart which shows what has happened to existing home sales in the United States in recent months.  If you compare the two charts, you will see that the numbers are eerily similar...

Existing Home Sales Today

New home sales are also following a similar pattern.  In fact, we just learned that new home sales have collapsed to an 8 month low...

Sales of new single-family homes dropped sharply last month as severe winter weather and higher mortgage rates continued to slow the housing recovery.

New home sales fell 14.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 385,000, down from February's revised pace of 449,000, the Census Bureau said.

Once again, this is so similar to what we witnessed back in 2007.  The following is a chart that shows how new home sales declined dramatically throughout that year...

New Home Sales 2007

And this chart shows what has happened to new homes sales during the past several months.  Sadly, we have never even gotten close to returning to the level that we were at back in 2007.  But even the modest "recovery" that we have experienced is now quickly unraveling...

New Home Sales Today

If history does repeat, then what we are witnessing right now is a very troubling sign for the months to come.  As you can see from this chart, new home sales usually start going down before a recession begins.

And don't expect these housing numbers to rebound any time soon.  The demand for mortgages has dropped through the floor.  Just check out the following excerpt from a recent article by Michael Lombardi...

One of the key indicators I follow in respect to the state of the housing market is mortgage originations. This data gives me an idea about demand for homes, as rising demand for mortgages means more people are buying homes. And as demand increases, prices should be increasing.

But the opposite is happening…

In the first quarter of 2014, mortgage originations at Citigroup Inc. (NYSE/C) declined 71% from the same period a year ago. The bank issued $5.2 billion in mortgages in the first quarter of 2014, compared to $8.3 billion in the previous quarter and $18.0 billion in the first quarter of 2013. (Source: Citigroup Inc. web site, last accessed April 14, 2014.)

Total mortgage origination volume at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE/JPM) declined by 68% in the first quarter of 2014 from the same period a year ago. At JPMorgan, in the first quarter of 2014, $17.0 billion worth of mortgages were issued, compared to $52.7 billion in the same period a year ago. (Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co. web site, last accessed April 14, 2014.)

It is almost as if we are watching a replay of 2007 all over again, and yet nobody is talking about this.

Everyone wants to believe that this time will be different.

The human capacity for self-delusion is absolutely amazing.

There are a lot of other similarities between 2007 and today as well.

Just the other day, I noted that retail stores are closing in the United States at the fastest pace that we have seen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Back in 2007, we saw margin debt on Wall Street spike dramatically and help fuel a remarkable run in the stock market.  Just check out the chart in this article.  But that spike in margin debt also made the eventual stock market collapse much worse than it had to be.

And just like 2007, consumer credit is totally out of control.  As I noted in one recent article, during the fourth quarter of 2013 we witnessed the biggest increase in consumer debt in the U.S. that we have seen since 2007.  Total consumer credit in the U.S. has risen by 22 percent over the past three years, and 56 percent of all Americans have "subprime credit" at this point.

Are you starting to get the picture?  It is only 7 years later, and the same things that happened just prior to the last great financial crisis are happening again.  Only this time we are in much worse shape to handle an economic meltdown.  The following is a brief excerpt from my recent article entitled "We Are In FAR Worse Shape Than We Were Just Prior To The Last Great Financial Crisis"...

None of the problems that caused the last financial crisis have been fixed.  In fact, they have all gotten worse.  The total amount of debt in the world has grown by more than 40 percent since 2007, the too big to fail banks have gotten 37 percent larger, and the colossal derivatives bubble has spiraled so far out of control that the only thing left to do is to watch the spectacular crash landing that is inevitably coming.

You can read the rest of that article right here.

For a long time, I have been convinced that this two year time period is going to represent a major "turning point" for America.

Right now, 2014 is turning out to be eerily similar to 2007.

Will 2015 turn out to be a repeat of 2008?

Please feel free to share what you think by posting a comment below...

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  • Rodster

    One of the main problems regarding housing is that it was driven by the stock market “easy money” from the Fed. The big banks and players took their money and purchased a mass quantity of homes to “rent out” for people who could no longer afford homes. That market has dried up because of the economy and those same investors are dumping those homes.

    A similar thing is happening in China right now where their wealthy are unloading all the high priced homes they purchased for up to 60% off of what they paid.

    • Rodster

      They other problem with Wall Street buying homes is that it’s not like a typical family who buys a home to spruce up, maintain, and upgrade. Those homes are purchased to just maintain and rent to individuals who have been priced out of a home purchase.

      • Priszilla

        When you buy real estate, you get rid of that money and you make more money by renting out RE than by buying gold for the vault.

      • alan

        Next the neighborhood goes to hell becuase everyone is a renter and no one cares.

    • Bruce

      I don’t understand that logic. Around here most mortgages are about the same or cheaper than rent on average. Why would anyone pay rent if your a permanent resident? We even have some rent to own properties here that don’t involve credit checks.
      Yet, we have MANY apartment dwellers just the same. Does not make sence to me!

  • Priszilla

    Capitalism has cycles. That’s what we learned in school 40 years ago.

    And each cycle is worse than the previous one.

    • VegasBob

      It isn’t capitalism so much as it is a corrupt bubble-blowing Federal Reserve and a corrupted governmental regulatory system.

      Bubble cycles normally increase in amplitude until a final blowoff which is then followed by a massive collapse.

      The Federal Reserve has short-circuited the normal conclusion of bubble cycles with unregulated money-printing. A fiat currency that can be printed at will and is backed only by the “full faith and credit” of government is the perfect instrument for those with connections to fleece those without connections.

      Most people are nominally honest, but honesty is situational. If dishonesty pays better, many people will cheerfully steal anything that is not nailed down if they think they can get away with it.

      And given the recent history of governmental failures to prosecute financial crimes (with the notable exception of Bernie Madoff), why wouldn’t financiers, corporate tycoons and government regulators choose dishonesty 100% of the time?

      • Priszilla

        “Bubble cycles normally increase in amplitude until a final blowoff which is then followed by a massive collapse.”

        Yes, that is exactly Capitalism.

        Usually over supply of workers is solved by starting a war. War leads to a destruction of property and surplus workers, but also to an increased market of guns and ammo.

        After the war there will be an economic boom, as there are few workers and a huge need for housing and appliances, clothing, etc.

    • jaxon64

      They had crappy educational systems with misinformation 40 years ago also????
      If the people who read anything I ever write and remember it–remember this fact.
      You CANNOT have a Central Bank owned by private banks/individuals that manipulates and controls a nation’s monetary supply and interest rates and have capitalism…that is not the free market. It is a pseudo govt/pseudo private entity controlling the economy–definitely not free market capitalism.
      We have not had capitalism for at least 100 years in the USA–and final confirmation of this was the eulogy spoken in 4 simple words–”Too Big To Fail.”…

      • DallasMMS

        Well said

      • kfilly

        I wonder who we get to bailout this time with our hard earned tax dollars? Gee, I am so excited to find out. Yeah, this will be awesome! Rollling eyes!

        • putin tame

          NO bailout, bailin!!! LOL

        • Malcolm Reynolds

          Look no further than the MYRA. You will.

      • john smith

        yup. but if you try to find anyone with degree in economics who can understand that, it is a miracle – they are all brainwashed with keynes.

        • Ian Crowther

          Not brainwashed with Keynes John, but brainwashed with neoliberalism founded by Milton Freidman, and nobel prize winners like Eugene Fama who believe in neoclassical economics that is unfortunately entrenched into all anglo-saxon political life and thinking. Economics is taught in one way only, that has proved now to be incorrect in many ways, but its a religion, economists refuse to debate these issues properly, its not real science, and when things go wrong, all economics people are trained to respond in more or less the same way. There is no pluralistic thought, Marx, Austrian schools, etc. To me the subject of economics is dying, only the Post Keynesians have a handle on real life scenarios, and new Keynesians like Paul Krugman live in their own little worlds of self denial. Long live the heterodox movement :)

      • Ian Crowther

        What Michael describes are Minskyian super cycles building over time in a state of ponzi finance – correction of aggregate prices and deflation is not allowed to happen because the lender of last resort continues to prop up the market. So, society builds a bigger problem from a higher baseline, and on we go again, we surpass the heights of where previous recessions popped, but this time its different, we go through the ceiling, based on all the same indicators, bans will a little more tier 1 capital provided by state QE, but we know that won’t help much. The market has never been free, the whole idea is nonsense, it cannot be free, capitalism would destroy itself as Minsky has foretold in his financial instability hypothesis, but central banks keep the lie / fraud going. It is criminal really.

        • GSOB

          …’The market has never been free, the whole idea is nonsense, it cannot be free, capitalism would destroy itself as…”

          Nonsense.

          • Ian Crowther

            What an irrelevant position you take, tell me why its nonsense, maybe you don’t know!? Markets are not free, in modern capitalism (context here), there has always been a form of intervention to prevent cycles of implosion (rules / regulations / means of stopping deflation). Stick to quoting scripture or say something meaningful, lol!

          • GSOB

            “Washington is not America. It has become an alien city-state that rules America, and much of the rest of the world, in the way that Rome ruled the Roman Empire.”
            – Richard Maybury

          • Ian Crowther

            That’s fine GSOB, I agree with Maybury’s statement too, (same with London vs. the UK), but what has that got to do with free market economies and your earlier comment suggesting my point is nonsense? You need to unpack things properly an link them together for a cogent coherent response.

      • Priszilla

        Capitalism is where the capital rules.

        Private banks are very much capitalism.

        Or would you rather have state owned banks? Wouldn’t that be socialism?

    • Mudpie

      True, but socialism’s cycles tend to be much more dramatic and destructive due to malinvestment stimulated via absurd government intereference in thousands of ways and more.

      Get an education.

      • Ian Crowther

        But they are real, and not founded upon lies. This minskian super cycle, when it pops, (its had 4 cycles now), could be the one that ruins everything. Its better to have deflation for 7 years, correct properly, suffer the consequence, remember the pain, than re-inflate the same bubbles and make a much bigger problem down the road. Or maybe have a one of 20-30% debt jubilee than give billions out in pointless QE that is not endogenous and comes out in the economy, but sits in bank reserves helping credit to flow again. M2 money supply is no better now than it was pre crisis due to QE is it? Failure is part of free market capitalism, it must be allowed to happen. Pain must be felt in order to prevent the same issues arising again, cycles of hedge, speculation and ponzi finance as the economy deteriorates – the FED never allows a correction to the hedge state, as before long, wages have stagnated, employment deteriorated (in standards, volume etc), yet prices for property and stocks are increasing – only way that can be paid for when society is already over levered, it to expand credit via banks, and so we roll forward to ponzi finance again. Suggest you read Minsky’s financial stability hyothesis if you haven’t already, a 70′s stab (when neoliberalism power construct was taking hold), at how the world really works, and it turns out to be spot on! Minsky was right!

        • Mudpie

          I appreciate the response. I am familiar with Austrian economics, and your points certainly echo key points of that school of thought. Would you be so kind as to differentiate them for me?

          • Mudpie

            It sounds like you are saying that the FED steps on the gas at the wrong time. I think my reply would be that as a political institution this is inherent in its functioning and that it cannot possibly calibrate a proper response to any set of circumstances. It just lacks enough information about the trillions of transactions that occur in our society to do so. Econometric modelling simply does not work.

      • Priszilla

        whats your point?

        I just said that it is long known that capitalism behaves this way – so there was a long time to prepare for cycles. If you don’t, it’s your own fault. Like not preparing for winter and being surprised every year when it snows and becomes cold.

        Sounds familiar?

        • Mudpie

          My mistake, I thought you were making a value judgment about these natural cycles – but I would add what is happening now is not natural but is a result of govt. miscalculation.

          • Priszilla

            So, where are the entrepreneurs?

            Why do you guys always wait for the government?

            You are more dependent on your government than we were in socialism. Forget the government. It’s there, can’t change it. Like the weather. Accept it’s there.

            Now do your own thing. Make sure the government doesn’t fall on your toes. So, keep a watchful eye, but don’t waste too much time on it. Nurture your family, and the extended family, nurture your friendships, nurture business relationships, protect against criminals, learn what you can – knowledge and skills, enjoy life.

          • Mudpie

            You know, I think that this is great advice at one level. It is how we should try to live our lives. But there is also the macro level that unfortunately impacts what we are able to do regarding your advice. High taxes saddle families with less time and more stress, no jobs limits recreational opportunities (and I am not talking fancy vacations), and skyrocketing food prices mean we must settle for less. So by all means live your life and do not give up. But at the same time, we need not accept tyranny and become resigned to it. They did not do that in 1776 and we need not do that now.

          • Priszilla

            Against tyranny you have your guns, right?

            So, use them. Not just to shoot hungry neighbors for trespassing.

            Tax.
            You pay tax when you earn money. If you don’t earn money, you don’t pay income tax.

            If you reduce your operating costs you need to earn less for the same living standard.

            When you reduce the weight of the car, you pay less for fuel. When you eat less, you reduce the weight of the driver. :-)
            And save money for food and fuel. Need to work less, pay less income tax and less VAT for food and fuel and medicines and liposuction.

    • alan

      40 years ago…I was eating lead paint chips back then.

      • Priszilla

        Yes, we know. Eating lead leads to stunted growth of body and brain.

    • Killer Virus

      It goes in cycles because crony capitalism and little bits of socialism get thrown into the mix. I bet that number is the same as how far back people can remember history… lol.

      • Priszilla

        Oh, people can remember much more, but when they get older, they don’t care anymore.

        When the wall came down, and all the partying masses in Eastern Europe became unemployed, my grandpa (an old communist) just said: “told you so, you didn’t want to listen. Now you need to live with what you got. I have my pension. and in 10 years I’m gone”

  • Tim

    Subprime lending is back! Below is a quote from a recent Wall Street Journal article.

    While [lending] standards remain tight by historical measures, lenders have started to accept lower credit scores and to reduce down-payment requirements.

    Anyone remember the subprime crisis that became apparent in 2007?

    • Mike Smithy

      Very true. I smell fear on Wall Street. Subprime loans are a feeble attempt at artificial levitation.

  • Joe Kleinkamp

    The new subprime target is the guy with a low credit score looking for an auto loan. Can’t give him a mortgage so sell him a car! Package those loans up and sell them to the same suckers who bought the mortgage backed securities 7 years ago. Time to buy a tow truck and get rich working as the repo man!

    • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

      It is true. There is a big market for subprime auto loans these days.

      Michael

      • Tom

        What about people getting student loans and using the money for anything but education! Who’s on the hook when those loans are defaulted on? The rest of us!

        • xander cross

          How is that possible. I thought you could not do something like that?

          • Ray

            They do. My ex–who is a huge moron–did that. Now, he is in debt up to his eyeballs and can’t finish school.

      • MeMadMax

        Gas prices going skyhigh again. Look for repeats of people saying they have to decide between food on the table or going to work. Once we start hearing that again then it’s a done deal.

        • emma852

          my uncle recently got a nearly new black
          Volkswagen Touareg SUV by working off of a pc… blog link C­a­s­h­D­u­t­i­e­s­.­ℂ­o­m

        • ShaneEasterigg321

          My Uncle
          Ian got a superb Mercedes-Benz M-Class SUV from only workin parttime online.
          you could try this out F­i­s­c­a­l­p­o­s­t­.­C­O­M­

      • piccadillybabe

        Lots of brand new cars, trucks and SUVs on the roads today. You’d think things were good by the looks of it but at close to $4/gallon come summer, yikes. Bad enough just filling up the tank of an economy car much less a big SUV or truck. Although I have seen some pretty nice vehicles on the used car lots lately. Hmmm…. subprime car loans gone south?

        • Rosita Antonio

          Obviously you’re not living in California because gas IS OVER $4 a gallon!!! AND people ARE having to choose whether yo buy gas or food OR pay the utility bills!!!

      • Mondobeyondo

        Subprime mortgages are old news. The new news – AUTO subprime loans!

  • LaoShi

    We are approaching the Jubilee. Of course it will happen again – next year. 2001, 2008, 2015…

    • endofdays2015

      I agree

  • seth datta

    The synagogue of Satan who are bankers and strategists own the assets of all countries, if that is believable. This is what the western-backed wars of aggression have been about, though the public has been lied to about bringing peace to these countries. Now they have a multipolar world where we are all agressors versus each other, manipulated by the few. We see the same strategy at home, for example the bundy ranch, where the feds face off against the bundy’s and supporters, whilst the manipulators sit back and laugh.

    Eventually, they will get us to cull each other globally and oppress us increasingly domestically. This will usher in their one world order, with the State being G-d. Ever wonder why they like EBT/welfare – the state gets to play G-d. Same reason for obamacare, and state-regulated contraceptive availibility. The new dumbed-down western curriculum in schools will make for dumb and obedient servants to the global elite.

    By the way, the mark of the Beast already exists. And do not fall for the lie that we all have a shiny future just forever waiting out of reach. The government problems America/UK have are actually GLOBAL, for the bankers own EVERYTHING through banking (=fraud). They own the military, the police force, the hospitals etc.. Any dissent, and in the UK at least, they would collapse the economy, thereby causing 60 out of 80 million people to starve to death (we can only support 20 million with domestic food production).

    They don’t need guns. They are more well-prepared than you can imagine. And there is no pre-trib rapture. The purpose of human existence is to suffer somewhat so we may understand our need for G-d and to repent. This may seem perverse, but it is the truth. Satan and his minions may have the moment, and G-d will prevail, but these troubled times will last decades and there will be no expediting what is set by powers greater than us.

    • jim

      you believe what I believe is to be TRUTH. the mark=works(in the hand) thoughts(head). I only dis you in the “it will last decades” part, but it will be severe. Like Noah, prepare people.

    • TVP

      While everything you say is true, you have got the big picture all wrong. Today’s times are exactly like biblical times; civilization is collapsing because human beings are undergoing a psychological evolution – the evolution into self-leadership and away from external authorities. Because modern society is set up for people to take orders like sheep, it will fail and crumble as people awaken from their 3000-year slumber. Through these birthing pains will come a new civilization, where all people lead themselves, become wealthy contributors to society, and live with eternal and universal health, wealth, and peace. Jesus Christ had made the psychological leap into the next mentality, and his “second coming” will involve ALL HUMANITY making that leap, not some robed dude descending from the sky.

      • TVP

        Sociopaths (e.g., bankers) are incapable of evolving in this way, and as such will be left on deserted islands across the globe

      • Mr. C Resin

        Yeah,keep smoking that stuff duuuuuuuuude!!

  • Batman

    We all know its going to constantly get worse and worse over this “kick the can down the road” timespan, and it will be in a short period of time.

    Facts surrounds this country on how bad its is and it will get worse, but most go on and ignore it to chew the meadow grass.Welp, prepping is your best bet for this oncoming thunderstorm.But keep in mind your greatest prep is God, because if you lose all your preps in some way He is still by your side.

  • rentslave

    A federal law is needed to force banks to place all homes owned by them onto the market within 90 days.The government has interfered on the side of the homeowner for the past 65 years.Now,it’s the renter’s turn.I’ve paid perhaps half a million in rent over the past 40 years,and having nothing to show for it.

    • Kent Harris

      Agree. It is keeping prices high due to supply. Increase the supply would decrease the value.

    • bbtruth

      Oh…you poor victim. Give me a break.

    • Malcolm Reynolds

      Sounds like a personal problem to me.
      Sorry, govt confiscation doesn’t work.

      -1

  • markthetruth

    ” The WOLF OF WALL STREET ”

    It’s a ZERO SUM game. and the little guy doesn’t have the equity to play the game. and could only stand at the table looking for crumbs !

    the end…

    • jaxon64

      Zero Sum is a liberal lie…every dollar loaned or borrowed creates additional wealth/money.
      Everytime I take $100 in supplies and create a $150 product I create wealth.
      Liberals love the “zero sum” mentality because it implies that successful people achieve wealth or financial security at the expense of others instead of as the result of the fruits of their labours.
      Since all wealth earned is done at someone else’s expense, let’s just let the govt confiscate and control it all and dole it out evenly—liberal utopia

      • selaretus

        What cornucopian dream planet are you living on there, jaxon? whoa.

        • markthetruth

          does this guy have any logic , the price of a product is as in his case is his $50 profit is a $50 loss to who ever buys it.

          the end…

          • Douglas M. Green

            No it isn’t. The purchaser of a product values it higher than the price or he wouldn’t buy. It isn’t a loss of $50 if the added value to the purchaser is, say $60.

          • notasdumbastherest

            by that logic merely trading with people would destroy wealth, because every transaction has a profit on one side, that would imply that simply trading with people destroys wealth, this is not the case as both people agreed to trade, they value what the other person has more than what they have, that actually creates wealth.

          • Malcolm Reynolds

            Ummm no. You seem to dismiss that the person has the product and whatever value it brings him.

          • Airedale

            No, Jaxon is correct. If a person buys $100 worth of wheat and turns it into $150 worth of bread, he just created wealth by the sweat of his brow. His neighbor, who may not have the technical expertise to grind wheat and bake bread may have the expertise to repair the baker’s oven for a profit.
            Furthermore, the baker’s $50 profit is not a loss for the buyer. It is a choice or opportunity cost on how he spends his money.

          • jaxon64

            you are the one without any scintilla of logic..This is how the whole thing works–70% of money creation is actually done by the banks–not the Fed.
            When I deposit $100 in the bank, the bank is allowed to record/credit me as having $100–yet at the same time they can loan out $90 of my money AND at 15% interest on avg.
            So, shall we review for the uneducated in economics–my $100 has now become $100 for me, a $90 cash in hand loan for party B and $13.50 for the banksters for doing nothing more than loaning out my money…presto!! $203.50 now exists in electronic funds!!
            You didn’t really think we borrowed 17 trillion dollars in physical cash did you?
            Saying I don’t have any logic…or I’m in a cornucopaen dream…no wonder the banksters and govt pull of this crap so easily…

          • markthetruth

            dude you proved my point , if there’s a fast bank run and you run to get in line for your “so called profits” it’s first come first served and you can throw out the $100,000 bank insurance, so if your late the the bank to take your $100,000 out, your “SH#T OUT OF LUCK” you are now on the wrong end of SUM ZERO your money doesn’t exist anymore.

            the end…

          • Gay Veteran

            excellent point

      • Drud

        This thread ignores the obvious flaw in its entire premise: we must no longer measure value in terms of money!!!! Money is simply an agreement, a receipt for human labor/ingenuity/creativity/energy. These are the things of REAL value. Money is just the medium of exchange and the measuring stick. The problem is that our measuring stick is twisted and warped beyond recognition. It has been so misshapen by 100 years of central bank insanity. Yet we still insist on measuring EVERYTHING based upon it?

      • VegasBob

        The government borrows trillion$. What wealth does that create?

        Borrowed money can only create wealth if it is invested in some type of productive capacity…

        • jaxon64

          agree 100%–I’ve heard that the total costs on welfare since the 1960′s-”War on Poverty and Great Society” legislation was passed is now–coincidentally–also 17 trillion dollars !!
          What has that produced? Children of parents on welfare grow up to learn how to be wards of the state/system. Poverty is higher than ever and we have increased by millions and millions the numbers of people who consume and produce nothing…
          THIS is how wealth is destroyed.

          • Richard

            You are correcto. All Big Government does is destroy markets; destroy paper currency; destroy living standards; destroy social values; and sole Super Power Governments murder innocent men, women and children around the world. This is what the USSA has done
            in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria. And for what? So that the Banksters could control the opium trade in Afstan; oil in Iraq; 100+ tons of gold in Libya; lastly to stop the Russian gas pipeline to Syrian ports. Yes, bloody hands of the Banksters use our military might for world hegemony of Drugs, Oil , Gold and CONTROL of other nations and their people. When they are finished pillaging and plundering the wealth of America, they will then turn around and Enslave us. Why do you think the DHS has purchased over 2 billion rounds of hollow point ammunition along with MRAPS and armored vehicles? It ain’t to go duck huntin. Yes, we will have to again soon fight, not FOR our Constitution and the freedoms contained therein, but to simply KEEP our Constitution and the freedoms contained therein. Oh yes, it seems like that ungodly and hellish Department of Homeland Security (GESTAPO) was birthed on “W”s watch if I am not mistaken.

    • Mudpie

      It is only zero sum when the government is at the table or regulations are forcing an action.

  • K

    I agree it will be worse this time. Prices are higher on most things especially food. So lose your job, you will be in trouble much quicker this time.Also most people I know, never fully recovered from last time. Now add to all that, the increasing tension, between the Citizens and the Government. It could make last time look like a picnic.

  • steve

    Or maybe 2016 will turn out to be similar to 2008, or 2017, or 2018, or 2019 and on and on. We’ll never see it. Life will continue as it always has.

    • Mark

      Exactly. I like michaels articles,but its always always always next year. 2012 was the big one and now it’s 2.5 years later. Eerily similar …prepare for the 2064 meltdown, have ur grandchildren buy bags of rice now with exp date of 2068. Hate to be sarcastic ,but gezzzz…next yr. 2016 may be ugly.if not then watch out for 2017′could be the doozy!

      • Bruce

        I understand your point. However, there is more than sufficient evidence that shows it IS coming. We ALL know with certainty that we are going to die. ALL of us are. Yet, none of us knows the date of our death now do we?

      • Malcolm Reynolds

        So you did put your money where your mouth is, right?

    • Bruce

      Do your eally beleive that? The debt that this country owes, that we can never repay, alone guarentees that the ponzi scheme will bring us down. NO fiat currency in history has ever survived yet you seem to think that life as usual will go on.
      Let’s say you have a change of heart and really start prepping. Turns out you were right and I was wrong and the system did not collapse. Then your STILL ahead of the game because you have had insurance for the possibility. Plus you now have stored food that was bought cheaper then it presently will be. It’s a no brainer even if I am wong and your right!
      In addition, I find it highly negligent for ANY family man not to pepare for his family! To me taking care of your family is what being a man is all about.

      • Malcolm Reynolds

        Umm, There’s a huge difference between ‘life will go on as it always has’, and what you said, ‘life will go on as usual“.

  • Bubba Johnson

    To Michael
    Love the articles and especially those concerning real estate. What are your thoughts about the Federal Reserve slowing its purchases of mortgaged bonds and how that decline or slowing could or world cause ripples in the real estate market which this article expertly explained.

    • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

      I think that when QE totally ends that it is going to be crippling for the housing industry. We are going to get to see how the U.S. economy performs without artificial support, and it won’t be pretty.

      Michael

      • alan

        So they will just keep it going. That seems to be the deal with this collapse. Its slow becuase they just launch scam after scam to keep it afloat. I would be suprised if they started to sell land on the Moon next.

        • Mike Smithy

          Real estate on the moon? I like it. Bullish for stawks.

      • Killer Virus

        I don’t think they will taper at all. They will keep the Ponzi scheme going until the collapse is instant and catastrophic. They will probably start a major conflict so the politicians can blame it on somebody else.

        • jakartaman

          I am in your camp.
          There was always two camps . Slow bleed out
          - Boom

        • Tim

          We really don’t know what the Fed is doing with regard to QE. If there were really less demand for Treasuries, yields would be rising. Yet the yield on the 10-year Treasury is sitting well below 3%. We’ve learned recently that Belgium has been buying large amounts of Treasuries, but there’ something fishy about that, in my opinion.

          • Killer Virus

            Fishy is a nice word. 341B, yeah ……more like the feds giving themselves a reach around.

          • Tim

            Yes!

        • Mike Smithy

          BINGO!!!!!! We have a winner.

  • Michael Dubin

    I wonder why home prices aren’t dropping along with sales.

    • j r

      Its all dependent on the area. Where I live here, people are doing just fine. Houses go on the market and get sold quickly, lot of folks have money.

      • notafuckinidiot

        50% of home sales are bought by investors paying in all cash. I had a client come in today she sold her house in one day, put it up for sale in the morning and someone bought it later that day

    • alan

      Colorado Springs is crazy, the only thing on the market is crap. I suspect the banks are still sitting on them. You can’t sit on a house in Florida becuase it will be striped by recyclers or the jungle will reclaim it.

  • El Pollo de Oro

    Right up until Sept. 2008, the Bushbots and neocons were insisting that the economy of The Banana Republic of America was in great shape and that we weren’t in a recession. Then came the Crash of ’08, which turned out to be worse than a recession. This has been a depression. Now, the Obamabots are the ones telling us that the BRA is in economic recovery. But this is no recovery. This is frog soup. The froggie and has been gradually boiling, and the heat will only get worse and worse……and worse, and worse. Just wait until one of the tyrannosaurus monsterbanks goes belly up. All hell will break loose. The L.A. riots of 1992 will look like a picnic in comparison.

    “I believe that things are going to get much worse. People who are losing their future are going to kill themselves, whether it’s people in the banking system or a neighbor near you. When people lose everything and have nothing left to lose, they lose it.”—Gerald Celente in 2014

    “We have bound ourselves to a doomsday machine that grinds forward. ”—Chris Hedges in 2014

    “Nothing offends a neocon more than being called a chickenhawk. The epithet really ruffles their feathers.”—Justin Raimondo of Antiwar dot com

    “More and more prominent people all across the political
    spectrum are leaving America because they can see the serious signs of tyranny.”—Alex Jones

    “It is probably going to be the messiest, darkest time that
    we’ve experienced in this country. I’d be very willing to bet that.”—The Patriot Nurse

    The Banana Republic of America, empire of rot and decay, is Ground Zero in a global economic meltdown. Welcome to a front-row seat in hell.

    • Bruce

      You wrote “All hell will break loose. The L.A. riots of 1992 will look like a picnic in comparison “. As grim of a statement as that is I think even that is an understatement.

      • Mudpie

        Hope not but I understand why you say that. Much will depend upon where one is, the state, culture, etc. How the police respond to the good people who defend against the bad. Etc.

      • El Pollo de Oro

        Bruce: I’ve spoken to some preppers who think I’m too optimistic in my predictions (which is saying a lot). Things are definitely going to get ugly when some of the things that Celente, Alex Jones and others are predicting (a bank holiday, formal devaluation of the dollar, a bail-in/looting of bank accounts like Cyprus) come about. Imagine the riots and chaos when Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase or Banksters of America goes into cardiac arrest and the BRA has a Cyprus-style bail-in. “What???? They’re taking 20% of my life savings? On top of a currency devaluation? Time to rito!” It’ll be nasty.

        • Bruce

          Then there are those who think it will be just another great depression. Not by a long shot! People back then had callouses on their hands. They were accustomed to working in the fields, growing their own food, using an out house and pumping their own water by hand. Most had no electricity as the norm and therefore, for many it was just a small adjustment. They were much hardier and resilient people back then.
          The TV addicted, I want it now, over medicated, can’t even grow a weed, lazy cultured people of today will go absolutely nuts when their stomachs growl incessently.

          • none

            Bad News Bruce!
            The T.V. addicted can grow a weed!
            Just take a look at Colorado.
            Those innovative young people are growing their own!

          • Phil from Germany

            Bruce, quite agree, and its much the same thing here in Europe. Thing is we are squeezed into a much higer ratio of people per sq Kilometer than you. As such its frightening me now how this will play out in the end. Added is the tough gun control, made me take up archery again to defend myself. I know it sounds pathetic. The arrogant average self pitying, incredibly fat, lazy, alcoholic German is going to suffer badly.

          • chilller

            Phil, It’s the spirit, not the weapon….and you definitely have the spirit!

          • Jim Oliver

            Bruce, “can’t even grow a weed” Too accurate to laugh at (but, I did anyway!)

          • Calling Elvis

            Bruce -”People back then had callouses on their hands. They were accustomed to working in the fields, growing their own food, using an out house and pumping their own water by hand.”

            Could not agree with you more – for the most part I believe people, in general, have their heart in the right place but they don’t have a clue how tough/bad things could and probably will get – sooner than later

    • chilller

      The coming days won’t be for the faint of heart. True Americans will stay, and fight to regain our nation to it’s former status. Those who slither away, like criminals leaving the scene of a crime, should be remembered, tracked and never allowed to return under any circumstances…family members included. This time in our country’s history will be an opportunity to purge the nation of the vermin responsible for its demise once and for all. They have been feeding on the ill gotten gains rightfully belonging to the American people for way too long.
      Good riddance to the rubbish and let the garbage take itself out. And like garbage…never allow it back inside the house.

      • xander cross

        Have you seen the movie “the purge” and the sequel “the purge anarchy”.

        • chilller

          No…tell me more!

        • Kristen Marie Embler

          I’ve been saying that this will happen for quite sometime now, yet most people believe it never will. These said people are the same ones who believe the government is there to protect them. As always, the sheep will be sheep.

      • El Pollo de Oro

        Chiller: the coming days definitely won’t be for the faint of heart, that’s for sure. The more the BRA becomes a “classical tyranny,” as Alex Jones says, and a police state, the harder it will be to escape….especially when the FEMA camps are up and running and the corporatist government deals with dissent in true Mussolini/Franco/Pinochet fashion.

        • chilller

          Who wants to escape except for the timid…someone has to free those people who are locked up…may as well be the real Americans…

    • Malcolm Reynolds

      Please don’t misunderstand this as support of Bush, but along the subject lines of this article, you’re wrong.
      Sorry, Bush warned that the subprime debacle was coming and needed reform over a dozen times.

      • NowAlive

        That’s true but way keep Bernanke as the captain of the ship? Strange he was good enough for W and then he was still good enough for O, don’t you think? Also, instead of just complaining, why not do something about it? He reported, just as you said, but never really took the full initiative to stop it.

        • Mike Smithy

          True. If I recall correctly,he was more concerned about the use of steroids in Major League Baseball.

        • Malcolm Reynolds

          Because as much power as a Pres has to steer an agenda, he still does not control congress. Especially a rabidly left-wing congress that’s too busy calling him Hitler and accusing him of murdering millions of Iraqi women and children, which was idiotic. Bush’s agenda was lame duck dead before his first term was over.

          • Gay Veteran

            “…Especially a rabidly left-wing congress that’s too busy calling him Hitler and accusing him of murdering millions of Iraqi women and children….”

            Hard to face the truth. Our war of aggression against Iraq was a war crime from day one. We destroyed that nation, and dozens now die every day because of our actions.

          • Malcolm Reynolds

            No, It’s hard to deal with nutbags and their mouth breather constituency that will believe almost anything. ….like you.

          • Gay Veteran

            I’ll let you psychopaths defend what we did in Iraq and elsewhere

          • Gay Veteran

            it is very easy to find out how many Iraqis died because of our war of aggression, how many were displaced, wounded, etc.
            But psychopathic warmongers like you don’t care.

          • Malcolm Reynolds

            Ahh, so what you’re saying is you swallow. Good for you, I don’t care, keep your perversion to yourself, you stupid puke.

          • Gay Veteran

            your psychopathic attitude is what I expect from a war monger who doesn’t care about the death and destruction the U.S. caused.
            seek professional help!

          • Richard

            The Malcolms of the world have No problem with invading Other Nations based upon Any lie put forth by their POTUS and the killing of thousands of innocent men, woman and children and the maiming of tens of thousands more in order to satisfy their blood lust and as long as NO Nation does such to them.

          • Malcolm Reynolds

            Please cite where I advocated that, D!ck. Please cite anything credible (In other words, not left wing) where we killed all them thar wimmins and chirren.

            Meanwhile, back in reality it’s really easy to find proof that Al Qaeda is very guilty of what you anti-Americans accuse this country of.

          • Gay Veteran

            your denial of the facts is amazing.
            btw, 4 years at Fort Sam Houston, a ** hole

          • Malcolm Reynolds

            mmmm. as is typical you accuse me of something, I refute you and you ignore it…

            like basically everything else you’ve posted – liar.

          • Gay Veteran

            ah yes, we remember your little jihad trying to prove me a liar.
            FAIL

          • Gay Veteran

            I see Richard struck a nerve

          • Malcolm Reynolds

            Nope. He’s just an idiot. like you…

          • Gay Veteran

            WHAT part of this do you disagree with???

            “The Malcolms of the world have No problem with invading Other Nations based upon Any lie put forth by their POTUS and the killing of thousands of innocent men, woman and children and the maiming of tens of thousands more in order to satisfy their blood lust and as long as NO Nation does such to them.”

          • Malcolm Reynolds

            War monger!? Ummm, We’ll lets stack up the evidence.
            1. I’ve been in war.
            2. I never voted for a war.
            3. I never sent anyone else to war.
            4. I’ve never advocated for war.
            Sooooo, Yea I’m gonna put your lil pile of excrement where it belongs. *flush*

          • Gay Veteran

            never advocate for war?
            then why your denial of our war crimes in Iraq?

          • Malcolm Reynolds

            Ummm.

            somehow in your syphilitic brain denial of war crimes = advocated for war.
            LMAO! God, you’re stupid.

          • Gay Veteran

            just another stupid cog in the imperial war machine.
            sad

          • Gay Veteran

            yawn, just another anti-gay bigot

          • Gay Veteran

            denial of war crimes = psychopath

          • Calling Elvis

            REALLY Malcolm – you’re on the loosing end of this argument

          • Malcolm Reynolds

            Nope. I mean, unless we want to just consider that arguing with you incoherent morons is a losing battle. In that case, ya.
            I mean REALLY Elvis, since when did denying some idiot’s fantasies become advocating war?

            BTW, it’s “losing”, and you’re doing it.

          • Richard

            The Malcolms of the world are brainwashed by their own lies they tell themselves. They Never see the cruelty of our warmonging around the world since Viet Nam and the hundreds of thousands of civilians we Americans have Killed. I volunteered for Viet Nam and did 2 tours (’68-’69 & ’71-’72) US Army as a 19 year old kid and thinking my POTUS was honest and the War was necessary and POTUS would not have US there if it was Not RIGHT. WRONG. Sadly, most of these Malcolms will Never awaken to the TRUTH.

          • Gay Veteran

            yep, because they still think America is exceptional.
            sad

          • Gay Veteran

            Malcolm has been part of the imperial war machine for so long that to accept the TRUTH would be psychologically painful

        • http://Wisesooth.PatriotActionNetwork.com/ Wisesooth

          There is a reason why the economists call Bernanke “Helicopter Ben.”

      • GaryA

        Yeah, Obama is complaining about Wall Street much more than Bush and yet they become fatter and fatter. You don’t understand that the main job of a politicians to say what a voter wants to hear and do what his sponsors want him to do. This is some skill and Obama is the best at it.

    • BigAl D

      What really frightens me about your comment is my agreement with it! Given the ignorance and apathy of most people I talk to, I don’t see a good way out of this. I wouldn’t be surprised by tyrany, austerity, dictatorship, and marshal law in our future. Holy Crap!!

  • Mudpie

    To Joe below: great point! And I would add the student loan market. That catastrophe is already baked into the cake.

  • davidmpark

    There are ways to fix this. I’ve outlined ideas many times.

    I wish there was something to say: a word of comfort, another solution, a call to save the republic… but I know it won’t do any good.

    If you, an individual, won’t work for your own liberty, well-being, family and such; then you have no one to blame for the decline and fall but yourself.

    Well?

  • http://waltersthinking.blogspot.com/ Walter Ruggieri

    I agree that nothing has been fixed and we are in a worse position than the last time. So things are going to get ugly and they will get ugly fast. May God have mercy on us all.

  • Joe

    From day one, the Fed is created to be “the lender of last resort” for the banks, nothing else.

  • Dustin

    Oil prices went up to 150$ a barrel back in 2008, those prices are the true catalyst to an economic downturn. History proves it. Unless gas prices hit 4.50$-5.00$ range…there wont be a downtuwn.

    • Kent Harris

      That will happen too. It is why the US keeps getting involved in foreign wars so that the petrodollar remains in effect.

    • K2

      One of the reasons global economies are slowing down, is because of high oil prices now.

    • Malcolm Reynolds

      Gas in SLC was 2.85 around Dec. It’s now 3.29-3.39.

      Well lets hope the trajectory doesn’t continue.

    • Mike Smithy

      Gas and food prices aren’t going up. The value of the dollar is going down.

    • Drud

      Again, like most, you are using the wrong measuring stick. A barrel of $50 dollar barrel oil has the exact same energy capacity/ability to do work as a $150 dollar barrel, so what is really changing in value?

  • XSANDIEGOCA

    It’s an election year. Nothing to worry about until 2015. Until then, all talk of Taper is nothing but Vapor! Pump, pump, pump!

    • Mike Smithy

      I suspect that you are correct. None of us ever dreamed that TPTB would be able to artificially levitate this thing as long as they have. In addition, I believe that the “Taper” is an illusory parlor game orchestrated by the Federal Reserve. They have somehow created a backdoor scheme whereby certain EU governments are purchasing US bonds thus creating an illusion of demand for US debt.

      • Tim

        I’m thinking along the same lines as you, Mike. There’s something fishy about Belgium buying all these U.S. Treasuries.

      • XSANDIEGOCA

        The Fed is like an iceberg. All we see is the top 3%. The other 97% is below the surface and we peasants never find out about what is going on until well after the fact, if ever. Now, does anyone think this administration will allow the markets to meltdown before the election? Won’t happen. After the election is another story. Vesuvius is going to erupt IMHO as Obama puts the pedal to the metal on the transformation.

  • JustanOguy

    Can’t say I’ve come across anybody that has bought 10 homes with little to nothing down…. with a total payment on each one $1,000+ more than it would cost to rent the same house…… since 2006.

  • Mike Smithy

    The muppets believe that they will have enough time to get out of the stawk market when the dam breaks. However, only the well connected will have advance warning. Everyone else won’t stand a chance.

  • Ohio Loan Officer

    Michael,
    Another major housing drag factor we are seeing in the Mortgage Industry is the massive amount of Student Loan debt that has piled up over the last several years. When the unemployment rate skyrocketed laid-off workers took the advice and went back to school to re-train. This was a bonanza for colleges and tech schools. All of the Student Loan money allowed them to increase tuitions.
    We are now seeing all of these college grads finding jobs making far less than they expected yet burdened with hundreds per month in Student Loan payments now coming due. These people are finding they cannot qualify to buy a home with the debt they have. It is not uncommon for these college grads to have payments of $400 to $500 per month that they will have for the next 20 years.

    • Mondobeyondo

      Ah yes. The infamous Student Loan Death Star. This assumes you can pay back your student loans in due time once you get a decent paying job in your chosen career field. Don’t count on it happening. It’s not 1964 anymore.

      More than a few graduating college students are quite likely to pay off that $100 grand debt load with that part time gig as a Starbucks barista…

  • Ned Ludd

    It’s funny, last night on NPR they were talking about how there are not enough houses on the market. As you listened (carefully) they kept talking about 2,3,5+ million dollar homes, not many of us can buy one of those…I can barely afford my 125K home any more.

  • Gerald

    Vermin=

    the non federal -Federal Reserve (money robbing entity) for the banking cartel, international banking cartel. Why not do as Iceland did? Jail and throw the bankers OUT! Their economy is thriving. Get warfare out of the hands of Brzezinski, take H.A.A.R.P. and scalar weapons back from the psychopaths, end poisoning from fluoride, GMOs, chemtrails, mercury laden vaccines (other engineered viruses etc.)

    Common Core bullshitz, Agenda 21,

    THEN – all the dirty power hungry, war mongering, banker paid off politicians and pressitutes lying for them etc. etc. etc. etc. …………………….

  • dave1964b

    The similarities to 2007 are amazing but I think you’re missing something really important – the Dodd-Frank bill. Major regulations related to mortgages kicked in this January and its got to be a large part of the impact combined with the cold winter much of the US had. So in my view we are seeing a replay of 2007 once again because of government tinkering. In 2007 they had easy Fed money propping up the stock market and loose housing policies, now they have easy Fed money propping up the stock market and excessively tight housing policies. Either way its guaranteed to slow down the economy and the fake money train of the Fed can’t last forever.

  • CharlesH

    Micheal, thanks again for a great article, I for one, always appreciate your hard work. I often times try to cuddle up with my ‘denial blanket’ to keep the world out but I’m always brought back to reality when I visit this website. Reality is a bitch sometimes. We don’t have to like it – we don’t even have to hate it – it is.

  • underaged

    For those of you who are so certain 2007 will repeat itself – stop complaining, cough up some money and sell short on Wall Street. But, but, but …..

    • PotHead69

      Or click on the links here and keep pouring your savings into silver like Michael keeps pumping

  • DJohn1

    We appear to go through seasons.
    I think we are going to see a winter season where everything gets cut back to reality. That means a terribly over priced stock market will probably devalue by half or more.
    Who exactly is dependent on that market? All of us.
    Housing is a reflection on who is employed.
    Real Estate is dependent on the market place. How many qualified buyers are there out in the market place looking?
    The rule of thumb is long gone. It used to be 4.5% increase in the price of Real Estate per year. So if a person owned a home for 7 years, then you had a substantial increase in the price between the time you started a loan and the time you sold the house.
    Except the price is going down because the demand is going down. Qualified buyers are dependent on jobs being available. It is likely on a 100,000 dollar home, 10% of that value is gone. At 90,000 the property may or may not sell.
    Retail is dependent on disposable income. Again jobs that people can afford to spend money. If the disposable income is not there, then retail goes broke.
    Those jobs remaining here, are likely to not have raises every year. Disposable income is then reduced as inflation eats up the wages people earn. So right now a lot of retail stores are close to bankruptcy. The marketplace is adjusting to the lack of jobs.
    Eventually, it is impossible to cook the books. At that point, it is an unending cycle of layoffs and store closings. You lay off people then you have the entire marketplace thing happening over and over again. New jobs do not pay what the old jobs did. No disposable income here.
    So people cut expenses where they can. Cable? get an antenna. Food? go to the cheaper products. There is an entire generation of people on welfare because the job market does not support new jobs worth anything.
    Eventually, the stock market reflects the numbers. And that is what is going to happen next.

  • Drud

    The future is always a mystery and the system of human society is so complex that an essential infinite number of future outcomes are possible. This leaves the possibility that ALL prediction can be wrong, at least in specifics. However, recognizing trends of society, economics, war, etc. and seeing correlations to past events can give a general view of the not-too-distant future. In essence, there is too much evidence that our system is on the verge of massive collapse to be ignored. Making specific predictions about riots, wars, elite agendas, depopulation, remains purely speculative. Recognizing a system that is in and of itself an unsustainable bubble, is simple mathematics.

  • GaryA

    This is what I don’t understand about preppers. OK, we have infrastructure, cars, agriculture, etc. Why would we completely collapse? Where would it all go? What I do see is a complete collapse of a monetary system and wipe out of all debt and wealth because of it. It is kinda good. Those who work from paycheck to paycheck will not lose much, but those who accumulated some wealth will lose it. So, we start a new cycle with a clean plate – no debt, no wealth, equality for all. It happened in Russia in 1990 – yes, after a few years of tough time, eventually Russia recovered. Why Apocalypse?

    • Killer Virus

      You are right to some extent. How you are wrong is that it might take a year or two for our whole system to adjust. If our money collapses it will cost a lot to import food. We don’t produce most of it.

      • GaryA

        Good point about Russians – yes, most city dwellers have country houses – “dachas” – where they grow their own food. Yes, I agree that we import a lot of food – but do we need all that imported food to stuff our face wit? We WAY over eating and going on a diet will be a good thing. I assume we can produce all the food we REALLY need, given all the technology and infrastructure. Agreed that adjusting will take some pain but on the other hand we have SO MUCH more infrastructure than Russian had in 1990.

        • Killer Virus

          You are forgetting how the welfare recipients will react. High crime will run rampant when they realize they may have to get off the couch. Theft and murder will be common in those years.

          • K2

            Dont mock all welfare recipients just because a few of them are like that. Most of them on welfare, are on welfare out of lack of choice.

    • Drud

      The term “Apocalypse” is way overused. The way I see it, you are most likely correct. Dmitry Orlov writes a lot about the collapse of the Soviet Union and the parallels of the US today. Ultimately, the collapse will be a good thing. We will, as a society, be forced to a new, more sustainable, normal. The problem is the transition period. Everything is in play: from some civil disobedience (localized riots), to positive feedback loops in keystone industries (most likely leading to social collapse) to global thermonuclear war (game over for almost everyone). We are in an unprecedented period, but the reason we are headed for disaster have occurred throughout history.

  • Dr. G.

    I don’t disagree with your premise, however the charts from 2007 have two month intervals between each data point, while the charts from 2014 have only one month intervals. That’s problematic, since you can take a smaller period of time from the 2007 chart and make it look like things were actually getting better, but when you step back and look at a longer period of time, the downward trend is obvious. I’m not saying there isn’t a downward trend in the 2014 housing market. I’m just saying that until you compare charts with similar two month intervals, its impossible to make correlations like the ones your suggesting, at least correlations supported by real data. Do you have charts that both show two month intervals? That would be really interesting to look at.

  • Hiroshi Yamamoto

    Ukraine crisis starts to turn into major international crisis. Kiev government has sent military troops to pacify pro-Russian rebels in several cities in Eastern Ukraine. Russia will intervene soon. This could be the spark of a global economic meltdown.

    • wally

      maybe this is all planned. Drudge had a report today that the NY Times is fabricating Ukraine escalation. Why? Support for war? Go to war, collapse the dollar blame it on Russia. Then what Martial law and usher in the NWO. Stage a false flag…Remember Obama said his biggest concern is a nuke hitting NYC? A nuke hitting NYC???? Why make such a statement…Oh yea that would give them what they need to declare Martial law. Then what???

      • Hiroshi Yamamoto

        Maybe the Illuminati are pushing Russia for proxy war in Ukraine, more sanctions and Russia will dump the dollar. Chinese may follow. Then we will have an economic collapse

      • The FACTS

        Marshall law will not work… Obunga failed to get America’s guns… he tried… but as usual… epic FAIL.

    • Cynical Guy 42

      Russia breaking its promise to invade Ukraine would not have afforded America this opportunity.

  • nohomehere

    hey moe ! hey moe ! I can’t see ,I can’t see ! what what’s the matter ? I got my eyes closed nuck nuck nuck

  • frank1569

    ‘It is only 7 years later, and the same things that happened just prior to the last great financial crisis are happening again.’

    ‘There’s a financial crisis every 5 to 7 years.’ Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, testifying to the Senate, 2008.

    So let’s not pretend the bank robbers didn’t warn us they were planning another heist.

  • ad

    If they keep blaming the economy on the winter weather i’m going to start blaming the winter weather on Bigfoot. And the effects of smoking with Gandalf the Grey cause the low employment rate.

  • wally

    People aren’t buying homes because they don’t have the jobs to give them the income to buy that home. Some interesting articles on Drudge lately:
    Vegas is still getting a lot of tourism but the tourists aren’t gambling they are just things that don’t cost them much money.

    Even fast food places are getting hit hard because people are starting to not eat out and are eating at home.

    One of the most bad signs in an article I have seen in a long time: Major cities like Miami, Chicago and others are experiencing condo/apartment rental shortages, what happens when supply dwindles, yes the price goes up. So here is the thing, middle class family loses job/s >>> can no longer make house payments >>> gets evicted >>> moves to condo or apartment >>> prices go up >>> can no longer even afford rent >>> move back in with parents, kids, relatives or buy mobile home and move into trailer >>> next stop is living in your car then homelessness. Vicious cycle isn’t it and unless jobs and wealth start getting created this will all be a 1 way drop.

  • nothingbad

    Mike- I appreciate your column. I have a few (general) suggestions and one specific for today.
    First I would like you (if possible) to go to the ‘next level’ and turn ‘raw data’ into intelligence. (I dont have this skill, but I presume it can be learned). That is, take what you see (and like we do in math, using the “slope” or “derivative” predict the next “point” and so on. Then see where we land. Along the way figure out what other actors are likely to either ‘reinforce’ or ‘inhibit’ the trajectory).
    All our crystal balls are cracked, but most of us could see where Putin was headed in the Crimea. I dont want you to be a false prophet, but mountains of raw data are always present and dont always lead to predicted outcomes. For example in the 1990′s a guy told me the US debt was so extreme the interest could not be paid. A simple check of national data, even if fudged showed that was unlikely at the time.
    In the mortgage scenario you also may want to think of contraindicators. Should we divide the mortgages into fixed or variable? If Wall street is smelling higher rates, why would they originate 30 year fixed loans? They might just do variable loans. But maybe they have shifted the business or its reporting somewhere else?
    Second here in Southern Cal, investors continue to snap up lower priced properties for cash. As executor I just sold a probate property for $120K which could be rented for about $1300-$1500. I could have done the same rental thing but would have had to put about $20K into fixing it up first. The investor had been buying about 90 properties a month. Prices are up at the bottom end, even while the volume of sales continues to drop. So the data is confusing (check [your favorite real estate site] for number of sales and prices for zip 93550).
    Still I agree mortgage data (unless faked) could be of use. Clearly for inflation bubbles somebody has to provide the ‘hot air’ which is cheap money and lots of it, so by looking at the “change” of mortgage money one can see if large inflows are happening (or no changes or decreases). That was what fueled the prior crisis. I dont know where to get good metrics on ‘all cash’ purchases versus mortgage origination, nor do I know if the current volume of sales or financing can maintain the status quo or if collapse is nearing.
    Another bubble indicators is simply the ratio of M2 versus the monetary base.
    One can download a spreadsheet from the fed reserve (somewhat better, somewhat more clumsy now) and get monthly data from 1959 to present, for M2 and for Mbase (different downloads).
    Through them in a spreadsheet and divide M2/Mbase and clean it up a bit and you can see the curve for the last 40+ years.
    One saw an orderly increase in Mbase as the Fed Reserve (as a bank) grew its deposits (Monetary base) at about 4% for decades. M2 (more stable than the M1 curve, and about the same as M3) is hard to decipher. But when M2 is divided by Mbase one can see if the currency in society is growing. The graph will show your it grew alot under President Carter (inflation), then stopped growing under Volcker (constricted rates) and remained constant under Greenspan (Mr. Monetarist). However, it is said that M3 or higher which would have caught the default swaps and mortgage obligations shenanigans, ceased to be reported. So the bubble was missed. Worse, by 2008 the M2/Mbase ratio was worthless as the monetary base doubled overnight. Did we lose half our money (value) in a month? Yes? is that why oil and gold doubled ?
    Clearly this ‘quantitative easing’ or whatever is like having an aneurysm that is ballooning up along the financial arteries. Some think it will pop, some think it will be deflated, some think a wire-coil will be put around it to stabilize it. But who knows?
    The point being we suspect that the ‘data’ presented by governments is incomplete, manipulated, non-sensical or maybe a smoke screen or maybe we just don’t know how to interpret it. Even when we are ‘on to them’ the numbers all change just like the ‘trade deficit’ reporting in the 80′s or inflation reporting or city/highway mileage based on ‘vendor tests’.
    That is what we are hoping you can do for us. We do not expect 100% accuracy. But we would like some strategies. But we suspect that for any given set of circumstances there is a strategy that is exactly wrong. Most of us at many times in our life have picked that wrong strategy.
    For instance ‘save for a rainy day’ is now mocked as ‘if you like your bank account you can keep your bank account’. But Cyprus confiscation was real for many, as was Indy Mac bank seizures over the ‘Federally insured deposit limits’ here in California just a few years ago.
    Finally, to turn off some, but help others, Joseph was warned in a dream to flee to Egypt. He could have said “No way, THIS CHILD can never be in danger”. He could have said “No way, we were never supposed to go back to Egypt”. But he did flee. Some are suggesting to prepare to flee.
    Some are suggesting worry is the enemy. Ay!

  • Ben

    Invest in farmland, whether as an individual or as a co-op. Communities that conserve large sums of land will survive. I will avoid urban centers like the plague once a decline occurs. Local farming is a hedge, combined with those who believe in the 2nd Amendment.

  • Mondobeyondo

    1) There is nothing new under the sun.
    2) We never seem to learn from previous mistakes.

    Is history about to repeat itself? Again?

    Time will tell.

    *sigh*

  • Mondobeyondo

    Let’s see…

    I’m starting to get “pre-approved” credit card offers in the mail again. That is scary. Are we going to see a return of “NINJA” loans, too? (No Income, No Job, No Assets. Congratulations! You’re pre-approved!)

    That alone is a clear sign there is likely trouble ahead for the economy. The national economy for sure, and very likely your economy on the personal level, if you are not careful (should’ve learned from 2007…)

  • Rick Bender

    I totally agree!

    • Agrees with rick

      I totally agree with rick.

      • The FACTS

        I agree with you agreeable fellows.

  • Rick

    I totally agree!

  • Cynical Guy 42

    I hope this doesn’t mean 2014 will be like 2008. Unfortunately, it could be worse. I noticed the 2014 charts didn’t start as high – reflecting that our economy hasn’t even fully recovered and this is happening, whereas in 2007 was the end of a high point.

  • Fed up

    Collapse of democracies

    democracies always collapse.

    In 1887 Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh , had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years prior: “A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse over loose fiscal policy, (which is) always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith;

    From spiritual faith to great courage;
    From courage to liberty;
    From liberty to abundance;
    From abundance to complacency;
    From complacency to apathy;
    From apathy to dependence;
    From dependence back into bondage.”

    In my opinion we are in the from apathy to dependence state right now.

    We saw apathy last election when a lot of republicans and conservatives simply didn’t vote and you will see it again if the republican establishment gives us Jeb Bush as it appears they are hell bent to do.

  • ian

    these stories all seem to be rehashed from last year and the year before and the year before etc……

  • PotHead69

    You are comparing 6 month charts to 12 month charts. What happens when you use the same timeline? Doesn’t seem as shocking does it?

  • landofaahs

    But listen to the Obama devotee’s say “We are the richest nation on Earth….” They are insane.

  • trojanguy

    After the economic collapse…….prepare for a Second American Civil War., and all the chaos and insanity that it will bring.

  • Donald Wilson

    For the years that the US government have been bullying as well as overthrowing governments, as the old saying goes the chickens will come home to roost. This country is doomed hope everyone is prepped and ready. The end…

    Bravo Two Zero out

  • amanda gallagher

    Hi. I am living in Ireland and your article is ‘eerily’ close to what is happening here also. Our Government have just passed new laws which hand all construction to one private company of developers and builders. The nation is in shock. We are one of 2000 families who were planning to manage the new build of our homes (we have spent 3000 euro on plans) – we have all abandoned our plans as a builder would triple our budget. I think in the States you can hire your own tradesmen? The shock of this mad law is reflected in the number of commencement notices for one-off houses for the the month of march – 2013 (320 houses) compared to 2014 (70). This is a massive blow to the economy already. I would welcome an economists advice : mandy.gall@hotmail.com

  • Geezer

    A guy has a video on YouTube maybe you can find it. It goes on to describe how the market crashed in sept. of 2001then in sept. of 2008 and will crash in sept. of 2015. Who knows.

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