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Get Ready To Taste The Bitter Side Of Keynesian Economics

Most Americans have no idea what the term “Keynesian economics” means, but the truth is that it has been deeply influencing U.S. economic policy for decades.  Essentially, it is an economic theory that originated with a 20th century British economist named John Maynard Keynes, and it advocates government intervention in the economy in order to smooth out economic cycles.  The general idea was that lower interest rates and increased government spending could be used to increase aggregate demand when the economy was experiencing a downturn, thus increasing economic activity and reducing unemployment.

And you know what?

To a certain degree, Keynesian economic theory actually does work.

Increased government spending DOES stimulate the economy.

But the problem is that governments all over the world decided that they would just run constant budget deficits and stimulate the economy all the time.

All of this debt has brought a temporary prosperity to many of the nations around the globe, but there is one huge problem with debt.

It has to be paid back eventually.

With interest.

So what happens when nations have to start spending huge chunks of their national budgets just to service all the debt that they have piled up?

Well, that is when they taste the bitter side of Keynesian economics.

In fact, we see that starting to happen all over the world right now.

All of a sudden, governments all over the globe are talking about huge budget cuts, pay decreases, and higher taxes.

We all know about what is going on in Greece right now, but suddenly it seems like “austerity measures” are being implemented all over the place.  Just consider the following examples….

*Portugal has pledged to impose fresh austerity measures that include much higher taxes and dramatic budget cuts.

*Barack Obama is personally pressuring Spain to make severe austerity cuts.

*It’s not just Southern Europe that is facing these austerity measures either.  It is being reported that Germans are bracing themselves for a “bitter” round of budget cuts.

*The exploding debt situation in the U.K.was a major issue in the most recent election.  Bank of England governor Mervyn King has even gone so far as to warn that public anger over the “austerity measures” that soon must be implemented in the U.K. will be so painful that whichever party is seen as responsible will be out of power for a generation.

*Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says that United States citizens will soon have to make difficult choices between higher taxes and reduced government spending.

*California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is reportedly planning to seek “terrible cuts” to eliminate an $18.6 billion budget deficit facing the most-populous U.S. state through June 2011.

*In fact, many U.S. states are getting ready for their biggest budget cuts in decades.

Austerity measures for everyone?

That is the way it is shaping up.

So what happens when austerity measures are implemented?

Well, just as Keynesian economics correctly predicts that economic growth goes up when government spending increases, it also correctly tells us that economic growth goes down when government spending decreases.

So all of these austerity measures are going to mean economic pain for a whole lot of people.

Not only that, but there are now whispers that this European debt crisis could potentially cause the break up of the euro.

Whether or not that is actually the case, officials in Europe are sure seizing on this crisis to advocate for increased centralization of power in the EU.

For example, senior administrators of the European Union are proposing that they be given unprecedented power to scrutinize the spending plans of member countries before national parliaments can vote on those budgets.

Talk about a loss of sovereignty.

But not only that, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has come right out and said that he believes that the European Union must become a federalized fiscal union if it is to survive.

Doesn’t it seem like whenever there is a crisis the solution that is always being proposed is to give centralized institutions even more power?

There has also been talk that nations such as Greece could end up being ejected from the euro, but the reality is that such a scenario is not very likely.

For one thing, the ECB has already come out and said that under current EU law, ejection of a nation from the monetary union is “legally next to impossible”.

In addition, leaders throughout Europe realize that if the euro fails then the entire EU may fail as well.  German Chancellor Angela Merkel made this very clear when she recently warned that if the euro collapses, “then Europe and the idea of European union will fail.”

For many in Europe that would seem like a disaster, but the truth is that it would be a wonderful, wonderful thing if the euro failed.

Why?

Because it would represent a major defeat for those who are seeking to drag us towards a “world currency” and a “global government”.

It would also be a huge victory for those who still believe in national sovereignty and the decentralization of economic power.

So let us hope that the euro breaks up.

But don’t count on it.

Meanwhile, the one thing that we can count on is all of the economic pain that all of these new austerity measures are going to bring.

  • Concerned Reader

    Attention Administrator:

    Here is a list of topics that I would like to see on this site:

    The potential rise of China, India and Brazil

    Decaying cities other than Detroit, Michigan

    The probability of a racial civil war due to
    the economy, taxation and what is going on in Arizona

    These are just some of the topics that I wish to see.

  • D G Bokare

    Keynesian economics was invented to arrest depression and save the capitalists and capitalism at any costs. This has made capitalist and upper middle class happy to share higher profits all the time. But this has come at the high cost of taxes collecetd from the poor to save the rich. Keynes was also aware that the measures given by him were not to save the mankind eternally. He was afraid of progress in techonlogy and science, which would create abundance of every products and would create situations where the capitalists would find no way to save capitalism further.
    Depression, unemployment, debts, higher taxes and poverty are the gifts of Keynes. Now the world is experiencing the results of this Keynesian effect. Capitalist economists are, as said by Keynes, getting nervous breakdowns.

  • Justin

    There are a few pieces of Keynesian economic theory that have been disproven. For one, the loanable funds market and it’s influence on the interest rate. Another part of Keynesian economics proposes government action to bring us out of an inflationary gap, or a boom in other words. We know now, that there isn’t any reason to decrease the money supply (decrease government spending) to bring us out of a boom. A boom is not sustainable, therefore it will “burn” itself out without government intervention. The governments of the world did not completely follow Keyneseian economic theory, if they did we wouldn’t have the huge budget deficits; they should have stopped spending once a recessionary gap had been closed.

    The article is correct, however. I think this is politicians disregarding the suggestions of economists. Essentially bad fiscal policy pushing us head first into an unsustainable inflationary gap. If the government simply stopped spending, thereby reducing the money supply in circulation, we would see a contraction in world economic growth. This would bring us back to sustainable levels of production. This will never happen, unfortunately.

    Good article, an accurate portrayal of the forces that have shaped the worlds economic hardships.

  • roadrunner

    I wish to give some thoughts on the above question from “Concerned reader”. Here goes.
    China and India have already risen and the only thing that stops them from rising higher are the arch capitalists in the US and other western Euro blocks. they expanded them to bring about cheaper labor and products resulting in massive unemployment in the US and the western Euro blocks because things that were formerly produced there, arn’t being produced there anymore.

  • gary

    Concerned Reader: Let me very briefly comment on your question about the potential rise of China, India, etc. It bugs me when people lump China and India together as if they had much similarity. China has shown wide-ranging strength and accomplishment whereas India has not. Only China is a contender for power. India is not, never has been, and never will be.

  • http://www.thunderdrake.com/blog/ Aury (Thunderdrake)

    I do hope the Euro does break up. Sovereignty is very important to economic prosperty… Perhaps that particular collapse was a good thing. I just hope they don’t try and prop it back up again.

  • http://mamvas.blogspot.com mamvas

    I’m sorry, but is wrong.

    This has nothing to do with Keynes.

    Keynes’s theory was to cushion the economic cycle, not for to deepen

    Keynes’s ideas were killed in 1976, for ever and ever by Milton Friedman

    Friedman’s ideas killed the economy

  • bowssen

    Keynesianism is more than government intervention. It plays an active role in the economy through regulation to control the market, and it taxes large industries to provide capital for public spending without having to go into deficit. What we see in the EU and US is not Keynesianism, it is the financialization of government. Government no longer acts in the interest of people, it blatantly acts in the in the interest of business, and that’s why the government doesn’t tax business to the degree that would pay for public spending. Public spending is not good investment because it doesn’t return profits. That money is instead used to invest in other countries to bring in profits for business, while also keeping other countries beneath the umbrella of Western supremacy, which the EU and US obviously want. You’re right about austerity, that is definitely in all of our futures if things stay the same. We will be forced to endure the pain of the mistakes of big business because they certainly wouldn’t want to pay for it if they could just get the governments to place the burden on taxpayers. That will come in the form of austerity measures. The fact that almost every country in Europe, the Americas, Asia, and even Africa are in this same situation will cause a complete economic depression. There is already a de facto global government that has put all of these nations in debt in the interest of business to attack those that threaten profits. The Greek people are fighting back. Everyone feeling the sting of austerity must fight back.

  • http://lunaticfringe-brian.blogspot.com/ Lunatic, What Comes from the Fringe

    I don’t care what brand of economic “theory” you want to call or label what is going on. It simply doesn’t matter and Keynes is dead.

    It is much simpler. You cannot spend what you do not have. You cannot continually refinance existing debt, (40% of all debt was refinanced this year, and interestingly because rates were so low-we actually saved money refinancing) without paying down principal.

    What this article fails to mention and what many people don’t understand- is that all of that existing debt must continually be refinanced as it comes due. And the rates we are paying right now are dirt cheap. All hell is going to break loose when we are forced to refinance all that debt, each year, into rising interest rates. That is about to happen and it is going to be so ugly that it will bring about economic collapse. The only way to stop that, is to slash and burn government to the core and pay down existing principal with saved dollars. That’s it. GDP growth cannot save you, Allah cannot save you. When rates begin to rise watch gold motor right thru 2k an ounce.

  • stephane

    Greece will never be ejected from the Eurozone, THEY WILL ASK TO LEAVE THE EUROZONE. And they will default on their debt. It’s the only way out of their mess.
    Italians and Greeks have been playing this game for 50 years, devaluation their currency to prop up the economy. They can do it again only if they go back to the “Drachma”.
    Stephan / France

  • Mike

    The real question is to whom do these countries owe the money?
    If countries were able to issue their own currency then the debt would be to themselves. But in our current system ‘we’ owe the debt to the private central banks that have been given the right to issue currency. In the USA that’s the Federal Reserve.
    Here in the USA we have a slight chance of averting disaster if we begin to aggressively implement the Tenth Amendment along with the creation of State Banks, such as in North Dakota.
    This may allow us to check the power expansion of the global money power structure and its minions in Washington.

  • Norfolk

    Let’s hope the dollar breaks up before along with the euro. After all a “united states” that lumps California with Dakota, and rewards them in the Senate with the same representation surely does neither any favours.

    No sense that the euro emerged from the experience of two world wars…

    Forward to our troglodytic future, eh Michael? We wouldn’t want “global government” popping into our cave would we!

  • kolchack

    Great post. I get tired of all the Keynesian bashing when what the US and other governments have been practising the past 30 year is NOT Keynesian for the reasons you cited.

    What has been remakable to me is the sheer size of the deficits and national debts we have been able to run without the whole system collapsing. How much longer that will continue to be the case is the relevant question.

  • serf1984

    Also read how keynesian economics invariably leads to loss of laissez faire capitalism, more centralized gov’t,and socialism or as in US, a system of welfare or crony capitalism; the end game will likely be global governance & socialism ‘for the collective good’ of the central bankers and political elite if we let them continue. We should stop the ponzi scheme by abolishing the Fed & central bankers and let governments print their own money – w/out interest. http://1776solution.blogspot.com/2009/02/keynesian-socialist-subversion.html

  • http://www.google.com GetWhatYouPay

    Since the days the hypocrites were elected to Sacramento/Washington, it is difficlut for us middle-class not to see lower tax rate hikes, or not to see our hard earned tax dollars from being abused.

    two ends get the benefits: The fat rats — billionairs on Wallstreet and wellfare receivers — also voters that a particular party based on.

    No tax no vote!! — God bless America!

  • Michael Petek

    None of you seem to have understood Keynes at all.

    What he did was challenge neo-classical orthdoxy by demonstrating that time, money and the inherent uncertainty about the future conspire so that the economy quantity-adjusts, as opposed to price-adjusting, in response to shocks.

    The second key point of his challenge is that he took issue with the neo-classical contention that people will always trade if they can gain from doing so, irrespective of their expectations of the future.

    The third point is that he disagreed with the contention that people’s savings decisions are sensitive to interest rates. He introduced the concept of liquidity preference, which is the bias towards holding liquid assets (such as cash) in response to uncertainty.

    Milton Friedman did not succeed in refuting Keynes, as his refutation depended on the validity of the rational expectations hypothesis.

    What advocates of the REH don’t understand is that Keynesian uncertainty is not the same as quantifiable risk. They think that people’s expectations of the future are risk-assessable and that these expectations are, on aggregate, correct.

  • Colin

    You have just described a system that has been adopted and if continued to be adopted, will certainly ruin alot of lives. But being an optomist, I think that by the time we get to the point that everything goes pair shaped, we will adopt a new system. One thats sustainable and one which will benifit all people. There will come a time when the masses say ” enough is enough” and when that happens, all the leadors with all there power will be worthless.

  • leavingtheoffice

    Governments of all Western nations seem to have Keynes backwards. They increased deficits and expanded public services during boom times and now want austerity (which always shrinks economies) because of huge debt overhang. Did none of these politicians ever hear the story about the ant and the grasshopper?

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