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Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Plunged Below 38 Dollars A Barrel?

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Question Mark Burning - Public DomainOn Monday, the price of U.S. oil dropped below 38 dollars a barrel for the first time in six years.  The last time the price of oil was this low, the global financial system was melting down and the U.S. economy was experiencing the worst recession that it had seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.  As I write this article, the price of U.S. oil is sitting at $37.65.  For months, I have been warning that the crash in the price of oil would be extremely deflationary and would have severe consequences for the global economy.  Nations such as Japan, Canada, Brazil and Russia have already plunged into recession, and more than half of all major global stock market indexes are down at least 10 percent year to date.  The first major global financial crisis since 2009 has begun, and things are only going to get worse as we head into 2016.

The global head of oil research at Societe Generale, Mike Wittner, says that his “head is spinning” after the stunning drop in the price of oil on Monday.  Just like during the last financial crisis, we have broken the psychologically important 40 dollar barrier, and there are concerns that we could go much lower from here…

Price Of Oil - Public Domain

One analyst told CNBC that he believes that we could soon see the price of U.S. oil go all the way down to 32 dollars a barrel…

“We’re in a tug-of-war between a heavily shorted market and a glut of oil in the U.S. and globally, as Saudi Arabia continues to produce oil at elevated levels to maintain market share,” said Chris Jarvis at Caprock Risk Management, an energy markets consultancy in Frederick, Maryland.

“Couple this with a strengthening dollar as the market anticipates a U.S. rate hike this month, oil is heading lower with a near term target of $32 for WTI.”

Analysts at Goldman Sachs are even more pessimistic than that.  According to Business Insider, they are saying that we could eventually see the price of oil go below 20 dollars a barrel…

At OPEC’s meeting on Friday, member countries decided to set its production level at 31.5 million barrels per day, and did not agree on what the new limit should be.

After OPEC’s meeting, commodity strategists at Goldman put out a note saying that oil prices could plunge another 50% in the coming months, as the oil market tries to rebalance the supply and demand situation.

That may sound really good to you, especially if you fill up your gas tank frequently.  But the truth is that plunging oil prices are exceedingly bad for the U.S. economy as a whole.  In recent years, the energy industry has been the primary engine for the creation of good jobs in this country, and now those firms are having to lay off people at a frightening pace.  Not only that, CNBC’s Jim Cramer is warning that many of these firms may actually start going under if the price of oil doesn’t start going back up soon…

“This is not ‘longer and lower;’ this is ‘longer and much lower.’ There’s companies that are not going to be able to fund with futures; there’re companies that are not going to be able to get credit,” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street.”

Cramer made his remarks after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided not to lower production on Friday.

This was a devastating blow for the U.S. oil industry,” Cramer said.

On Monday, we witnessed another benchmark that we have not seen since the last financial crisis.

I watch a high yield bond ETF known as JNK very closely.  On Monday, JNK broke below 35 for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008.  Just like 40 dollar oil, this is a key psychological barrier.

So why is this important?

As I discussed last week, junk bonds crashed before stocks did in 2008, and now it is happening again.  If form holds true, we should expect U.S. stocks to start tumbling significantly very shortly.

Meanwhile, another notable expert has come forward with a troubling forecast for the global economy in 2016.  Just like Citigroup, Raoul Pal believes that there is a very significant chance that we will see a recession next year…

Former global macro fund manager Raoul Pal says there’s now a 65% chance of a global recession.

In July, Pal predicted that the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index would break the key level of 50 late in 2015.

On December 1, the ISM broke the 50 level for the first time since the 2008 recession, reaching 48.6.

“I use the ISM as a guide to the global business cycle, not just the US cycle,” Pal told Business Insider.

What amazes me is that so many people out there cannot see what is happening even though the next great crisis has already started.  The evidence is all around us, and yet so many choose to be willingly blind.

Instead of fixing our problems after the last crisis, we just papered them over with lots of money printing and lots more debt.  And of course all of this manipulation just made our long-term problems even worse.  I really like how Peter Schiff put it recently…

What’s happening is pretty much what we would anticipate. I don’t see from the data any real economic recovery, certainly not in the United States.

We’re spending more money, but it’s not because we’re generating more wealth. We’re generating more debt. We’re using that borrowed money to consume and so temporarily it feels that we’re wealthier because we get to spend all that money… but we have to come to terms with paying the bill.

The bills are going to come due. Right now interest rates are being kept at zero which makes it possible to service the debt even though it’s impossible to repay it… at least we can service it. But once interest rates go up then we can’t even service it let alone repay it. 

And then the party is going to come to an end.

Indeed – the party is coming to an end, and a new financial crisis is playing out in textbook fashion right in front of our eyes.

Hopefully you are already prepared for what is coming next, because it is going to be extremely painful for the U.S. economy.

  • rmc9

    …our creator is going to get our attention, one way or another…for our good. Someone once said, “whatever brings us to our knees in prayer to God, is a blessing. Here come the blessings y’all…

  • Guess Who

    We all have our opinions.

    Mine is as follows:

    The people who coasted through the 2008+ recession will do the same during the next recession.

    The people who had a hard time during the 2008+ recession will do the same during the next recession.

    The people who were devastated by the 2008+ recession will do the same during the next recession.

    The author uses history to see the future. I think the history of how people did during the last recession will predict how they will do during the next one.

    • GSOB

      That would be nice to see it go that way, minus ISIL.

      • Guest

        So you don’t care that millions of Americans will probably lose their jobs and suffer during the next crisis?

        I’m reminded of what Jesus Christ said to the Pharisees.

        ” “He answered and said unto them, Well hath Esaias prophesied of you hypocrites, as it is written, this people honoureth me with their lips, but their heart is far from me.” Mark 7:6

        • GSOB

          LOL

          • Guest

            It has NOTHING to do with dispensationalism. Besides, I’m not a dispensationalist. But you’re too stupid to understand that not all who hold a premillennial view of eschatology are dispensationalists.

          • GSOB

            LOL

          • Guest

            Yup. You’ve proven my point.

          • GSOB

            You should vote for Trump.
            That’s your speed.
            .

          • Guest

            Yeah, and you should vote for Hillary. You’re as lost as she is.

          • GSOB

            ROFL

          • Guest

            Yup. All you can do is mock.

          • GSOB

            Blog.

          • you’re doomed.

            aljfkwhkhwflja,snmclakj rlivwjl jwuhflqj kwjfl ajskfj hskgfjhw lkjfliw jlm;ajwfhw oeirf; qjfk hwkjghkwjt;ow kfnilhafgijwqo;kr liahflijlijfonjw eilfgj qljfkwhjfkshigheojgowjeopqirhwkfwkghfkakjshgflishgiuwhtihoijqwiugfakjkuhrokqlqhfihqljfiwhfloqwjeiufhwfljkacnajhkgfiuhwqlfjiauhgvikwjerkuhoafjoisuyutqu6wgfajhftrfkasjljf;srgihadfolkwoiefhosfhiuahfoljkufhoasjfiosjfopajlfjalkjliqjfljefljalfkjzjkdhlkjfsgofuckyourselfmoronweknowwhoyouarefhkjsahgflkshgkjasjglfjlerjlkahsfklnaslkfjsalkfj;sljflksdfkjslkfjsdkljflksdjlkjafalkfjaslandwewillshutyourmouthnalksfalksnflkjansflkajsflknaljkjsdhflkjsfkjhaslfjasajsfljaslkfjhalkfjal;jlkass.

          • Jazzinmomsbasment

            lskjfklrj kajlakjfljalskfklasjflsajf;ljlksdnlfjasdgfjklasgkjasndgfkljsaldkgjlkasdl;gaslkgjlkkglkjslsjflgofuckyourselfalskjfgklsajdfklsndkslwewillfindyouldsflksadjvlksdaksdl;j.

          • GSOB

            Who broke your fingers?

          • Plextt Plextt

            Heads or tails both of you lose=)

    • Richard

      No they won’t this time the banks will make every body’s money disappear. When that happens there is going to be total crazy going on.

      • Guess Who

        I stick to what I said above. People who survive usually survive and people who don’t, don’t. End of story.

        • RTL89

          I would agree with you completely, but here’s where I STRONGLY disagree. The reality is that we were due to have a financial crisis similar to ’08, but it didn’t happen during the Fall like it was supposed to. All the emerging markets are crunching yet everything stays afloat via manipulation of stocks and the numbers. If nobody is buying your stocks due to low confidence, it’s easy to just buy your own when you CONTROL the stock market.. thus boosting confidence in the markets. That’s the only reason we haven’t had a calamity yet.
          Now, the reason why it as NOT happened yet is because it CAN’T happen. We can’t afford another crisis like ’08. The next step Is either complete economic implosion, or WW3… both of which are equally detrimental to the lives of every human on this planet. So the answer to your argument is… nobody will survive

          • Guess Who

            I think you may be correct with the WWIII part, but the “nobody will survive” part, well, I think you may be less correct.

            But what do I know. Nothing, That”s why i am here. 😉

          • rmc9

            honesty is so refreshing…

  • GSOB

    Why won’t he stop shooting?

  • GSOB

    The HS changing its new terror alert system.
    I stand with Obama on allowing all people in.
    I don’t agree with Mr. Trump but I feel his heart on protecting us.
    Going with Obama is riskier in the short run.
    That might be all that’s needed to be defeated, or overwhelmed at least. Fear is very powerful.
    We are that way now.
    If we side with the POTUS Obama in the name of freedom for all, which we should, then we better be on guard. We need to beef things up.
    That’s what our government is for, to protect us and to exercise capital punishment on those who disregard us with death..
    Freedom isn’t free.
    The economy is held together by fiat money and the IRS is the canister filter.

    • Guest

      “I stand with Obama on allowing all people in.”

      You’re absolutely insane.

      • GSOB

        And Mr. Obama knows more than you and you will not likely become President.
        You have no respect for authority, much less care about from where it comes.

        • Guest

          Your comment is utterly ridiculous! You don’t know me from Adam, so how can you accuse me of having no respect for authority?

          I know that there is God-ordained authority in this world. But that doesn’t mean that I have to agree with every decision that those in authority make. You’re utterly stupid if you think otherwise.

          • GSOB

            LOL ‘know me from Adam’
            Hah!
            That’s a good one…

        • Chaos no

          Why should any of us have respect for the sack of crap that some call president “Yes I purposely didnt capitalize president”. Hes not a President, hes a stinking “sunni” muslim just like his father. Thats why he doesnt want to offend ISIS. Hes one of their own.

          • John Higson

            You should have ‘some’ respect because the american people voted for him, that in itself is a good enough reason, as it was for every president before him.

            That you say he’s a sunni is not good enough. Where is your evidence? He goes to church, his daughters are christians(no burqa or hijab), his mother is/was a christian. You’re not born into a religion, you do not automatically become a muslim because your father was one(except jewish, if your mother was one, you are!). I think the fact he’s blackish blinds you, and that’s just sad……

      • Jacynthia Read

        He’s trying to goad you. Ignore him.

        • GSOB

          No.
          President Obama is absolutely
          correct in allowing people of all faiths to dwell peacefully in America.
          To accept the lie that our own President is one with the extremist agenda of ISIL, in any way whatsoever, is to propagate it.
          Don’t anyone play into it. If you do, then that is when you are no longer your enemies enemy and without reward.
          The only thing between our national security and the enemy is the government.
          Pray for our leaders.
          The POTUS is a target just as much as you.
          Pray for the Lord to protect him and you..

      • Orac4Prez

        I’m in Australia. Yes, I think Obama should at least match Angela Merkel and let in at least 1 million of more. Less people wanting to come to Australia! [More realistically, the complete psychopaths are probably already enjoying “Western freedoms”]

        • John Higson

          Orac? From Blake’s 7? Nice reference, mate!

          • Orac4Prez

            Yes, You’re the first person to make the connection!

          • John Higson

            I find myself swelling with pride! My absolute favourite Sci-fi as a preteen. I still carry the trauma of the massacre at the denouement, and Avon’s final smile!

            Every PC I have ever owned has been called Orac!(no Zen….)

  • Steeve Girard

    I think the commodity crash is now at it’s minimum… it’s time for stocks to fall, because, now the price pressure to pull them back up is increasing. That is the only way the commodities can continue crashing.

  • JustBill

    My brain is splitting. The growing gap between hard data and the approved national narrative is widening, I’ve seen it and can turn away, but I can’t forget it.

    It appears that more credible sources are starting to point at it, but unless they provide a course of action for their followers they are only hedging their future credibility and preserving future earnings.

    It takes expertise to identify it, estimate it’s direction, speed and mass. It takes expertise and wisdom to draft reasonable courses of action to decrease its negative impact.

    I appreciate the intellectual labor and dedication displayed by the owner of this site, I will forever grateful to the site owner if one of these days we could see a list of reasonable courses of action.

    Let’s say hypothetical scenarios with hypothetical reasonable courses of action.

    Thought exercises conducted by someone with great expertise, read by hungry readers.

    • Sam

      I concur. I would like to see such a list as well. Factual and direct.. it could be clearly stated “this is my opinion and should not be used to make any decisions” or some other disclaimer.. but I too would appreciate hearing MIchael’s direct and pointed “advise” even if it is only his “opinion”.

  • Ferianto

    Possible scenario: as economic downturn progresses, oil drops to Usd 20-30/barrel. Russia certainly won’t survive under such low oil price, so Putin got a bright idea, let’s escalate the Syrian conflict into a greater middle east conflict so oil price would push up to Usd 100+. Starting by banning all planes except Russian and Syrian to fly over Syrian airspace (this way, Assad position is secure, no more western intervention) Guess who would be the main beneficiary? Russia of course as the largest oil exporter. Oil from the gulf states won’t be easily if not impossible to be transported since there is a great war going on.

    • Christoph Weise

      Russia can manage for quite a long time the effects by lowering the Rouble value and is doing that already. The extraction cost are quite low in Russia which is another advantage. I rather see Saudia Arabia and Russia in one boat jointly squeezing the US fracking industry.

    • Steeve Girard

      No, OPEC will not allow it, their goal is to kill fracking, not causing the economic collapse sooner than anticipated.

    • tom thumb

      And Russia has been buying gold hand over fist..they’ll do just fine.

    • SunnyFlaSnotress

      Other countries would turn more towards Canada,etc

    • K2

      true.

    • CASTIEL

      russia entered the syrian conflict to help an ally…..these bright ideas its led by the us government who helps ISIS…..thanks to them now europe its full of those refugees….

  • GSOB

    ?

    What was the first question in the Bible?

    Genesis 3:9

    • Jazz

      But the LORD God called to the man, “Where are you?”

      • GSOB

        Love ya Brother.

    • alan

      How many Roman’s does it take to change a candle?

    • SunnyFlaSnotress

      Wouldn’t you like to taste my forbidden apple?

      • Ricardo

        Apple is not mentioned ……. maybe it was a Durian.

        • SunnyFlaSnotress

          Spiky.. interesting..

        • GSOB

          It was the moral decision to be disobedient to God, not the prohibited fruit in and of itself, that incurred God’s curse.

          However, the Gospel of God, the good news is:
          “Although He was a Son, He learned obedience from the things which He suffered.
          And having been made perfect, He became to all those who obey Him the source of eternal salvation..

          Hebrews 5:8, 9

      • df NJ

        As if God did not know exactly what was going to happen to the apple in the garden with a naked woman prancing about. If God did not want man to sin, he should not have made women so damn beautiful. How is it that it is our fault and not the guy who could see the future results of his designs by just thinking about it? Maybe our existence is the mind of God thinking and this him figuring it all out.

        • GSOB

          At least you admit, though disrespectfully, His existence.
          The Bible is the most intelligent book ever written.
          I have a question for you.
          Does it matter to God what you or I think?

      • GSOB

        Why did Cain murder his brother Abel?

    • df NJ

      Can God have a thought so complex that even He could not understand it?

      • df NJ

        Speaking of Genesis 3:9, if God does not know where man is does that mean he is admitting he’s not omniscient?

        • BrutalTruth

          Try to take a look at it from a different perspective….Gods.

          Obviously, God knew where Adam was, so try to take a look at the question from the perspective of God asking Adam “now that you have disobeyed me, where are you?” or “where do you stand now?”

          Sin, shame, repentance……

          Man tries to use his understandings and they lead to death.

        • GSOB

          That question flows out of an unsettled mind on just who God is.
          Adam needed to really consider where he was in relation to the Lord that created him and instructed him not what to do..
          We all have that in common.
          It matters to God what we think of Him, if we think of Him at all.

  • Jazz

    My oil short positions took off today. I hope oil hits $20!

    • GoldenGirl

      Did you get on the Socrates waiting list? Investor level is now available.

      • Jazz

        No how do you get on waiting list? Saw it was available

        • Watchman

          You jump off the tallest skyscraper Zazz that’s how.

        • GoldenGirl

          Instructions were in a blog post from late yesterday. I think he has done 3 since then, so you have to scroll down a bit.

    • MaxRockatansky33

      Thanks to Syrian Inferno it may soon hit but 200$!

      • Steeve Girard

        If they declare total war state… all prices become frozen, all stocks are frozen. all resources and land is to be directed to the war effort. I hope it never happens, because there is no profit in war. Only an execution platoon, if you attempt to steal or profit from it.

    • Watchman

      The only thing that you are shorting is your brain Zazz troll.

  • Jazz

    Big difference between oil today at $38 vs. back in 2008. Today’s oil price crash is due to oversupply and a strong dollar, not weak demand like 2008-9. The effect is similar but a lot of oil companies have done a better job hedging against oil price declines. We will see how this oil crash plays out.

    • HeyAHuman

      A. The cause of the oil crash isn’t too relevant… It’s the ramifications that matter, which I’m guessing is why you have no interest in discussing them.

      B. “…a lot of oil companies have done a better job hedging against oil price declines” – Well, as you said below, you hope that oil plummets to satisfy your bets, regardless of how badly it affects everyone else. So why praise them?

      • Jazz

        The cause is oversupply not so much a demand issue. I’m short oil the commodity not the companies selling it. Everyone is entitled to speculate as long as they understand the risk and can afford to take it.

        • Gay Veteran

          riiiiiiiiiight, just like there’s no demand issue for copper, nickel, coal, etc.

      • fwalker2016

        He is obviously completely clueless as to to the dynamics of how assets, capital markets or industries are interconnected and the correlations. You can read any of his thousands of incorrect comments and forecasts and clearly see that. The notion of “a lot of oil companies have done a better job hedging…” again clearly exemplifies his comical myopic guesswork. The probable potential fallout to the financial intermediaries is beyond his comprehension. In time when an article is posted to spoon feed that to him- then he can add stories of being short those financial services entities shares…all while insisting record demand and profits will send stocks and indices flying – aapl 200 and sp500 2250 (ROFL from his previous PhD and Masters degrees tales)

    • fwalker2016

      As ludicrous as you notions of AAPL knocking the cover off the ball and fresh highs by December comments a few months back. Looks like your sp500 to 2250 by December worked out the same ..imagine that. ROFL

      • Jazz

        My prediction is a LOT closer to 2250 than your 1400 prediction. Lmao. Market has hit major resistance at 2100.

        Been long the US markets since mid sept, short oil & gold. Long the dollar and short the euro. Working out pretty well on my end.

        • fwalker2016

          Reality is sp500 was higher at 2115+ when you made those ridiculous forecasts and 1400 lie is another of your weak attempts at deflection. Told you your ridiculous sp500 and aapl notions would be great for laughs by December. Your revised tales of now miraculously being short oil and gold is equally as absurd. Thanks again for the comedy you provide. :)

          • Jazz

            Lmao. If you had been following my comments like you say, you would know I have been short oil Brazil and gold most of the year. At least I own my predictions unlike you who can’t even admit you predicted the S&P would be at 1400 by now. You are the joke!

          • tom thumb

            Says the guy with the clown nose…

          • Watchman

            Yep Zazz is a clown. He flip-flops more than the biggest clown in clown shoes would. The troll Zazz got caught in his own trap.

        • tom thumb

          Umm no, 2100 is just that, not 2250, so your wrong. Let me guess Common Core math?

    • outdoorsman46

      If you adjust for inflation oil, is at 34.00 a barrel compared to 2008. When the stock market finally goes over the cliff the demand will also plummet. Then we will be in a deflationary depression.

    • Steeve Girard

      OPEC created the oversupply, in order to kill fracking, and it will keep it on until they are sure that the sucker is dead!

    • SunnyFlaSnotress

      Like you say, it seems to me that this time we are strong-arming the others and in a dominant position.

    • autofixer

      How do you know the market is responding to oversupply? Generally a post mortem years down the road is the only way to know what really happened.

    • Kim

      And what accounts for the over supply? A miscalculation on the part of the oil companies and producers. Economic growth is flat at best and negative in many parts of the world. Why? Because economies can operate and function in high priced oil environment. The economy rebelled, as it were, and here we are stuck in an over supply environment.

      If I were in the business of gambling on oil stocks, I would short them myself. I’m not a gambling woman and I don’t have the money. I think going long on oil stocks works too, if u have the money and patience. And pick a major, one that can outlast the oil price collapse.

  • bugsbunny

    So it looks like 2015 was a bust for the collapse and doomers. Looks like mikey is already prepping for his 2016 predictions.

    Here’s one for you. I predict in June 2016 we will have from this blog a red alert for the last 6 months of 2016. Stay tuned.

  • Kim

    Economies buckle under expensive oil. But fracking and bitumen production can’t operate on cheap oil either, hence a negative return on investment, in turn leads to bankruptcy. No one saw the oil price collapse coming. Countries that are heavily invested and that rely on revenues from oil exports are particular hurting like Brazil and Canada. Canada is suffering budgetary crises in every level of government. Once the demand catches up with supply, and it will, watch oil go up to $200 bpd. By then it will be too late for the fracking companies.

    I listened to the entire Schiff interview and he said that once the rest of the world figures out that they are sending the U.S. products in exchange for a worthless paper currency that the FED can just print at will, it’ll be game over for the dollar.

    • chilller

      Spot on Kim. Along with the dollar dying, how long do you think it will take for the world to wake up to the fact the Saudie’s have effortlessly brought global finances to it’s knees and that someone (s) see it as an act of war?

      • jakartaman

        The house of Saud needs to be eliminated for many reasons

        • No doubt, the House Saud needs to be taken out! I have been waiting on ISIS to hit Saudi Arabia.

          • Snufy

            Won’t happen. The Saudi’s are paying them off to not attack them.

          • True indeed and they seem to be bankrolled by the Saudis.

      • Kim

        The Saudis are in the same boat as the Canadians, Brazil and the U.S. frackers. They can’t stop drilling, producing– or they die. They are on a tread mill (going no where) and it is speeding up.

        • -Al-

          With all due respect, you seem to have no clue what you’re talking about in this respect. The Saudi’s deliberately drove prices down. Historically, since the formation of OPEC, when oil prices have begun to fall, the Saudis would reduce their exports in order to reduce global supply, so as to bring prices back up. This was because they were the only producer who could afford to absorb such losses. This time they refused to do that, citing past losses in market share. Their continued refusal to reduce their exports is what is driving oil prices ever lower. There is just too much oil being produced relative to demand, and the Saudis are the primary party responsible for this glut.

        • Steeve Girard

          I have a disagreement about the position of Saudi Arabia. They are part of OPEC, they are part of the cartel that decided to over supply the market with oil. They did that to kill the fracking industry. But in the end your scenario of being shot in their own foot might be right. But it might not be what it’s gonna happen.

          • Kim

            I don’t think the Saudis are that smart. They may have golden toilet seats but these guys aren’t economic scholars. They are just Arabs in the right place at the right time. The market is over supplied on its own. This is my opinion of course. But the Saudis are happy to give as long as there is plenty of money to be made. Now they are stuck in the same flat economy just like the rest of the oil producers. The Saudis come out on top ONLY because they can still pump crude oil the conventional and cheap(er) way. The U.S. and Canada have to deal with layers of mining and production (cost) before their oil hits the market. It’s a matter of simple economics. Return on investment.

          • Steeve Girard

            The Saudi Royalty do have economic sciences diplomas, they were taught in U.S. universities. But what you said would make sense if it wasn’t the case. Good try.

          • Kim

            Lol thanks. Well, i don’t doubt the Saudis have economic advisers with advanced degrees. So do the Brazilians and so do the Canadians, et al. To clarify, I don’t believe anyone saw the oil market price bpd collapse coming, including them. I’ll admit I have not looked at any Saudi oil output in a chart over the last 18 months.

            My contention is that industrial economy has stalled and is actually contracting in many places, and that is the reason for the oversupply, not that the Saudis are producing more oil to manipulate market price. I’ll repeat, I believe the Saudis didn’t see this coming, like all the other oil producers, and are stuck on a tread mill of production that they cannot get off of. As was brought already, companies are either cutting costs and/are increasing production to compensate for the price collapse, while the Saudis are holding steady. But I will look for a chart if there is one available, to see if the Saudis have increased production or are merely refusing to decrease production. The Saudis aren’t necessarily an open book when it comes to these things. If u have more information I would be interested.

    • Steeve Girard

      Oh yes, another convert to the religion of common sense! +1

      • SunnyFlaSnotress

        you serious or did you forget the /s?

        • Steeve Girard

          He said once the demand catches up the supply…. which is not now, and not until the OPEC decided to stop the oversupply. But essentially he is right.

    • SunnyFlaSnotress

      I’m still waiting for Schiff’s Euro to rule the world and for him to win the Senate /s :snicker:snicker:

    • K2

      I want to ask you a question. Did the price of oil fall crash after the sub-prime collapse in 08 or before?

      • Watchman

        If you were even around you would remember that. It peaked in spring/summer and then crashed in fall.

        • K2

          did the crash happen (IN FALL) before or after the sub-prime collapse?

          • Watchman

            Why don’t you answer the question. It’s obvious you have no intention of contributing and just want to troll.

          • K2

            What question? And seems like everybody who disagrees with you isa troll.

          • Watchman

            Might want to brush up on your grammar and spelling there K2 aka recovery aka Zazz.

            When did the commodities crash happen and when did oil peak and fall?

            Is it not hard to understand or is it that you are simply so dimwitted that you can only troll.

          • K2

            I dont know, thats what i asked that question you m*r*n.

          • Watchman

            *Yawn*. I could do this all day and night. You knew what the question was but you simply couldn’t comprehend it.

            When did the commodities crash happen and when did oil peak and fall?

          • dontucker

            You should never argue with a moron…The rest of us can’t tell who is who.

    • krinks

      You are mistaken. Most fracking costs are up front and have already been spent. They can ride out lower prices far longer than nations such as Saudi Arabia or Russia whose budgets depend on oil revenue.The frackers break even point for wells already in production is equivalent to ~$15/barrel. Prolonged lower oil prices won’t bother them much at all.

      As oil prices began to fall a local paper went to the frackers saying close to what you’ve said assuming they were in trouble. The fracker’s reply is what I posted above.

      • Kim

        Not really. I realize the frackers can (and already did) hold out for some time. It’s already been too long for a lot of them. Some drilling and production companies, for example Samson Resources, have already asked for protection against creditors. And the bankruptcy filings are excelerating. Their burn rate and operating costs are very high. You know that. Oil should have rebounded back in June. It didn’t. It won’t rebound in the short term, but I believe it will go up in the long term.

        • Uncle Scam

          Will never see 80-100 dollar oil again..as ww3 is going to break out before long

          • mike d

            Historically when war breaks out then petrol prices go through the roof..

          • Uncle Scam

            I agree but the global economies are in the toilet now..manufacturing (globally) is like at all time lows. The fiat system typically lasts 40 years so we are approaching the end cycle…and that will finally ignite WWIII.

        • mike d

          New drilling has gone down dramatically but the production is steady..

          • Kim

            haha. Oh boy.

          • mike d

            Gas and oil employment in eastern Ohio has only dropped off to around 7% to what it was 2 years ago.. Oil prices will stabilize eventually .. The sky isn’t falling,

          • Kim

            Of course the sky isn’t falling. It already fell. You just don’t know it yet.

          • mike d

            I’ve been hearing this now for 20 years and if I had a dollar for every time a scare monger Told me the end is near I’d be retired already…

          • Kim

            No u wouldn’t.

          • Steeve Girard

            You know that making a profit or stealing, against. presidential order or equivalent for any country, during times of total war, is a court martial crime. They would be stupid to risk an execution platoon for money.

      • mike d

        Correct ,frackers have fine tuned their techniques and have decreased their operating costs by roughly 40% in 4 years… Bottom line is OPEC will go broke way before our oil and gas industry does..

        • That is my thought about it as well, OPEC cant maintain these low prices, many of these nations rely on oil to do what they do.

          • mike d

            Correct !it’s their life’s blood and much of this is price fixing in order to paralyze Russia who also relies heavily on gas and oil to the tune of 49% of their GDP..

  • Here an article from Fortune Magazine about some problems in the Silicon Valley…

    ——–
    TECH STARTUPS HAVE A BIG PROBLEM
    Tech Startups Have a Big Problem

    by Erin Griffith DECEMBER 7, 2015, 3:00 PM EST

    “And money’s not it.

    A year ago, investors clamored to get a piece of hot tech startups like Zenefits and Snapchat. This magazine evenargued that it was unfair that regular investors couldn’t access the world’s fastest-growing private companies.

    Today those investors are probably happy they never had the chance. Each day there’s a new report casting gloom on Silicon Valley’s herd of magical billion-dollar “unicorn” startups: missed targets at Zenefits, share markdowns atSnapchat, a cash crunch at Jet, an executive exodus at Rent the Runway. Dropbox faces doubts about its revenue potential. Theranos is losing business deals. And don’t forget WeWork’s highly risky real estate deals, and unrealized revenue projections at Lyft. Flipboard failed to find a buyer. Square SQ 2.66% priced its IPO underwater. Zirtual and Homejoy—not unicorns, but highly valued and highly funded all the same—abruptly shut down.

    Each new report is shocking because we receive little information on the health of these private companies—we know only what they choose to share. Usually those are impressive-sounding figures like “400% revenue growth” (from what base? $1?) or a robust “revenue run rate,” a decidedly non-GAAP measurement. Worse are the totally meaningless, hard-to-contextualize stats: Startup X has reached 5 billion “impressions” per month! (But what about profits? Does this revolutionary business model actually work? No comment.)

    I understand why startups prefer to focus on growth rather than succumb to the quarterly pressures of Wall Street. But these companies are not tiny fly-by-night upstarts. They employ hundreds (in some cases, thousands) of people and have raised hundreds of millions of dollars in funding. The stakes are high.

    In the first tech bubble, at least we knew how much money the startups were burning. Today’s information scarcity means each new shred of bad news makes us rightly wonder which other startups are hiding dysfunction. Meanwhile, the blogging, tweeting commentariat relishes the sordid wreckage of it all. They’ve been calling for this tech bubble to pop every month since Facebook FB -0.54% went public. Finally—maybe!—this time it’s really here. Call it schaden-funding.

    Whether recent startup revelations paint an accurate picture of the health of these businesses is beside the point. For investors, narrative is king. It’s hard to drum up excitement when so many of Silicon Valley’s rocket ships now look like battered question marks. When that happens, startup CEOs lose the benefit of the doubt. Top employees leave. Competitors move in. Momentum halts. And investors look elsewhere for growth.

    Staying private for as long as possible was the startup world’s way of controlling the narrative. That plan is crumbling, leaving young tech companies to grapple with a concept made popular by futurists in their own community: “Information wants to be free.” Sounds great—unless you’re on the other side of it.

    A version of this article appears in the December 15, 2015 issue of Fortune with the headline “Snap. Crackle. (Pop?)” —–

    fortune . com / 2015 / 12 / 07 / private-tech-startup-valuations / ?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE

    • df NJ

      Why bust your gut popping out a startup when there’s no reward at the end anyway. Things are so very much different than the late 90s!!!! $240/barrel oil has had major consequences.

    • GoldenGirl

      Interesting article ~ thanks for sharing. My daughter has worked for a number of startups in Silicon Valley and finally got so tired of what happened when they went public or bought out that she left the corporate world and went to work for a university in the area.

  • alan

    A war will make the prices go up!!!!

  • MeMadMax

    NO michael… Just no…. Low oil prices is good for main street, bad for oil TRADERS… Main street will create the jobs lost by big oil… Plus extra.

    • Dino

      No Max not bad for oil traders. We do know how to short the market. Heads we win, tails you lose.

    • Gay Veteran

      oh really, WHERE are the jobs as oils has been falling???

  • MaxRockatansky33

    Saudis want to kill shale fractioning in US. Russia and Iran has also interests in killing concurency and keep USA addicted to imported oil. China and Japan wants cheap oil at all because they don’t produce oil at all. War in Syria is another resources war just like Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan were.

  • dlewenz

    After speaking with 50 plus industrial customers in the last 30 days, not one customer expects 2016 to be as good as 2015. Some have made comments they have no idea based on current sales trends how they will make their numbers next year if present trends continue in 16. From a historical aspect we are due for the next recession in the next 36 months, it is just how bad it will be.

    • K2

      The US economy growth is slowing but i doubt there will be a financial explosion like in 08/09.

      • K2

        well atleast this year.

        • Uncle Scam

          Maybe not…but a controlled slow demise is even worse.

          • K2

            its hard to say which is worse, for some a sudden rapid collapse will be worse, for some a slower one will be worse.

      • Watchman

        Hey you must be Zazz’s “recovery” sidekick just under a different nickname. Oh and nice try to be credible by adding at least this year.

        • K2

          Are you a parrot, you keep on saying the same thing. i have been posting here longer than you or jazz. I added ‘this year’ because michael said it would be this year.

          • Watchman

            And yet you are employed by the same troll farm as Zazz. So either you can contribute or get lost K2 the troll.

          • K2

            Lol so i have a different opinion than yours so it means i am troll and employed by the so called ‘same troll farm’?

          • Watchman

            You don’t have a different opinion. You have an opinion backed by koolaid. Somebody needs to study up on their economics before setting foot on this blog here and that is you K2 aka Zazz aka recovery.

  • Perfect time to start dropping bombs on the Middle East – the only way the powers that be / military industrial complex know how to get out of debt is by creating a war. It’s no coincidence.

    • df NJ

      Dropping bombs to bolster the price of oil is satanism. Creating chaos, mayhem, and death in order to preserve power is pretty much Satan’s goal. If Jesus were here I do not think he would be happy with the military industrial complex and all the bombing that goes on.

      • Bill G Wilminton NC

        He is coming soon………

  • XSANDIEGOCA

    Default is inevitable.

  • df NJ

    Once interested rates start rising oil will be below $30. The stock market trades on the future.

  • df NJ

    The people who enjoy extreme wealth and privilege will do absolutely anything and everything to preserve their wealth and privilege. I think people’s wages would double before we would see the 7 billion people of the planet become one giant panicked hoard of wild animals tearing down every structure of wealth in search for food. The more interesting question is how close are we to the panic starting and what will ignite the power keg?

    • Steeve Girard

      The panic will take hold the poorest and less resourceful first. They will turn feral first, and that will be the warning. After that it’s gonna be blue collars when they get their jobs abolished, their rent goods and goods which they must pay a tax, seized. When that happens, they will not stay down. Look at Argentina, one of the best example.

    • lordonlow

      Never before has history witnessed so many lit fuses. Notice how Greece is off the msm’s discussions these days? Does that equate with Greece being solvent now? OF COURSE NOT.

      Let’s talk turkey; lined up behind Greece is Spain, Portugal, Italy… even France has unsustainable levels of debt. Hey, I’m in California. When talks of Italy’s bad position are mentioned, it sometimes is noted that Italy is the 7th largest world economy (or thereabouts). But California is ALSO the 7th (or thereabouts) largest economy — we’re by far the most important state in the world’s first true global empire.

      And guess what? Open up Cali’s books and what do you find. Heh heh, yep, debt up to our eyeballs. In other words, another lit fuse.

      There’re more (remember Puerto Rico?), but the KEY thing is the derivatives market, a dark market that some estimate at +$700 TRILLION. THAT’s the real reason the Fed/Treasury has inflated everything, flooding the market with phony fiat dollars ($4 TRILLION to date) and held zirp at an historic SEVEN YEARS. Once one of the derivatives bets is lit up, THAT’s the time to don your SPF BAZILLION sunscreen.

      And consider we’re not alone. It’s mind-blowing, but among all of the other historic things, we now are witnessing psychopathy on a level far beyond the pale, with the four largest economies in history (US, China, Japan, EU) printing phony fiat money like … well, psychopaths. Draghi just recently borrowed a poker term, saying that as far as printing goes, there’s no limit.

      Crazy talk? Yes, but more accurately; psychotic.

      I saw a graph from 2014 not too long ago; it showed Deutsche Bank’s derivatives exposure: $68 TRILLION. That’s just ONE bank.

      Anyone got more of that SPF Bazillion sun screen?

  • Horiboyable .

    This deflation is just the beginning, we only have about another 15 to 18 years to go.

    • Steeve Girard

      worst if the start year was 2005 like Michael said… add 50 to 75 years of economic mayhem, and disasters.

  • People’sArmy

    the markets are controlled its all a hoax from the bank of Satan the international bank of settlements and the central bankers in London its a system of ez credit then repos its been this way ever since the us removed the standards of money! put sound money back arrest the bank of Satan and stop using retirement funds to pay your bad gambling tabs? get the us government out of all cares its a private issue and defend the boarders! we know why so do it!

  • sign me up

    So now the prediction had become that something wicked this way come in 2016. Geesus my last comment on this was deleted so I am putting it up again. This guy is a joke and so is this blog.

    • Concerned Citizen

      He’s not a joke, Michael is actually pretty clever. He writes these alarmist overly dramatic articles based on the latest headlines to sell his books and survival equipment. Probably making a good living doing it. But my modest opinion is it’s just entertainment. He is an attorney after all. If He didn’t have this blog, he would be chasing ambulances like all the slip & fall Lawyers do.

  • autofixer

    I’ve got an idea…let’s raise interest rates!

  • Priszilla

    Low petrol prices will promote car sales. Even cars for credits. Electric cars won’t do so good.
    carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will go up by petrol use and car production.

    You could use that chance to upgrade your house now with transport prices falling.

    Some companies will go bust when the economy shifts its focus.

    I think the trick is to keep in mind: use of less resources and energy will reduce operating costs.

    When you hire people while they are cheap you don’t need to waste time in interviews and training when the orders come in.

  • renda blue

    Bbbbbooooommmm

  • Mark

    Low oil prices are not making things so great for people in Alberta, Canada right now:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/suicide-rate-alberta-increase-layoffs-1.3353662?cmp=rss

  • Scott Comin

    Hotels in NYC. high end hotels are at 50-60% this is unheard of in the fourth quarter especially for this long!!

  • Ryan

    I work for CNRL (Canadian Natural Resources Limited), at the horizon site 100km north or fort McMurray Alberta. We aren’t going anywhere. Like some have said our money us spent, billions of dollars have been but into this project and there’s no slowing us down. And the billions wasn’t borrowed like many others, it was the company’s money. With investors or course. As our president has said we will ride out the storm and no cnrl employees need to fear for there jobs. As out Oct 26th we were still hiring. From the time it takes for a employee to get their first phone call interview, to the time all training is done it cost almost 100,000 dollars for that worker to start work directly for cnrl. It’s not cost effective to shut down and have to hire all new workers,(there’s around 8000 cnrl employees alone on site not counting 8000 or so contractors). Plus the shut down and start up cost are enormous. I am one of the lucky ones who are safe, I think God for this. So many small company are falling and too many worker have been laid off and out of work. Let’s all hope this ends sooner then later.

  • DJohn1

    I maintain that a barrel of oil is the next thing to a weather station of finance.
    The lower the price the more the dollar becomes worth against that commodity. So we are actually gaining by having cheap energy in the form of gasoline and oil.
    And yes, it will cause the economy to tank. It is likely to drop the price of stocks to the tune of a lot of money lost in the stock market as it reacts to said revaluation of the dollar. Notice I gave no figures.
    The chief factor going is the price of goods in the market.
    When gold goes down in value per ounce, that is another symptom of this economy and its radical decline in value per dollar.
    The last time it tanked in 2008 to a huge loss for investors.
    And eventually the stocks regained their value as sanity came back to the real investors in the market.
    Most of which tried to retain their stocks until they became valuable again. Sadly, unless they wake up, the stocks make good toilet paper.
    Anyone that tries to predict the length of the fall in value and the return to wealth is a fraud.
    Otherwise they would bet on the down market and walk away multi millionaires. Or even billionaires.
    Hindsight is 20/20. Always has been.

  • FortuneSeek3rz

    The oil market has gouged consumers for years, it’s time for the little man to play catch up. There are other jobs out there other than pumping and refining crude. This isn’t a catastrophe or an omen of a “collapse”.

  • Isaac

    Hey Michael. Please note that I am not mocking you, but what happened to your “Red Alert”? Will you be issuing a new one?

    • Update

      Please use the same RED ALERT. Jusr change the “last six months of 2015″ to the “First six months of 2016.” Subject to change at any time without written or verbal notice.

  • eastbeast

    Totally gullible, you people are. The oil will run out when the magnetic core of the Earth dies, and not until then. The largest deposits may shift from time to time as the magnetic poles shift, but crude oil IS NOT A FOSSIL FUEL. The petrol will “run out” when it is no longer legal to burn these fuel sources, much like the demise if coal in the very near future, which is an argument that burning these causes greenhouse gases thus causing global warming, which is more unscientific BS.

  • Ruud Zwaaf

    It’s gonna drop to 18 dollars a barrel within the next 6 months.

  • J B

    But instead of dropping in one continuous drop, it’s been dropping recovering dropping and repeat….like somebody’s pumping it back up.
    I don’t think the SHTF until it gets to $30, and it’s going to take a year to get there with all the ups and downs. But don’t think whoopie finally cheaper gas, because that’s just not on the cards.

    • Lucky

      I consider myself fortunate to have come across this blog with such knowledgeable readers willing to share their insight into the truth of how the world financial system works. To bad most of them can’t even buy a new car without financing it.

      • J B

        Nooooo, worse than that
        I’m talkin’ boud McDonalds with Credit Card
        That’s pretty lame

        The world rapidly going cashless, where cash won’t buy you a Train, Bus tickets or a right of passage on a Tollway. Only Credit Cards and Bank Transfers will be accepted, this also enables tracking and control. You won’t be able to travel or buy a can of coke without somebody knowing who just bought something, it also means somebody cut you off from society with just a few keystrokes. The future is all about earning credits or tokens, which will have no bearing on Gold and Silver prices. They are separating Fiat Money from things of real value.

  • lordonlow

    “The first major global financial crisis since 2009 has begun”… I know what he means but want to clarify in that I believe the meltdown has NEVER been resolved and thus, we’re still stuck at EM08 – the econ meltdown of 2008. All the Feds and associated psychopaths have done is paper over and inflated everything, ie: $4 tril out of thin air, zirp (for an historic SEVEN YEARS) and taking toxicity off of the banks’ ledgers to the tune of forty billion a month for about 6-9 months during QE3 and dumping it onto innocent people’s backs (ie: give it to Fannie, she’ll LIKE it!).

    This is psychopathy on a level beyond anything we’ve ever seen, and I remind folks of the laws of the universe, the primary of which is “for every action…” Last I checked, humans aren’t above the laws of the universe.

    • Watchman

      From Deutsche Bank’s chief credit strateigst

      Our thesis over the last few years has basically been that the global financial system/economic fundamentals are so bad that its good for financial assets given it forces central banks into extraordinary stimulus and for them to continue to buy assets in never before seen volumes. *The system failed in 2008/09 and rather than allow a proper creative destruction cleansing, policy makers have been aggressively propping it up ever since*. This has surely led to a large level of inefficiency in the system which helps explain weak post crisis growth and thus forces them to do even more thus supporting asset prices if not the global economy.

      • lordonlow

        BIG THANKS Watchman! Happen to have a link for that?

    • Steeve Girard

      This crisis will be patch.. so will the ones for 2022 and 2029-2030, because the central banks can still cook the money, but they are running out of options to make it prop, and it’s failing more and more. After 2030, the conventional oil reserves will fall and with it our industrial capacity, followed after by population. Their banks will not survive the shock.

  • stroea

    Who let the dogs out?

    • Jazz

      I did. Left the dang gate open again and watchman and his flying monkeys like fwalker are on the loose. Watch out!

      • Watchman

        The only monkey that is present is yourself Zazz. Your the same monkey that throws feces and craps on the other monkeys.

  • Alleged Comment

    No one wanted to press the RESET button on DEBT. So now it will EXPLODE in everybody’s faces!!

  • WhiteDragonKing

    They’re hitting russia hard with this one.

    • Jazz

      Woo hoo! I shorted rsx a few weeks ago and up about 10%. Hoping their market crashes to new lows!

      • WhiteDragonKing

        Sure keep laughing, this will start a war.

        • Jazz

          It already did. Where have you been?

  • Jazz

    Getting scary out there. The high yield credit markets are dropping like a rock. Something big is about to break.

    • Steeve Girard

      Not is about to break, but has already broken. It’ gonna be a Lehman’s moment again. You will only know when the buzzards decides that they prey is dead, and dive on it.

  • Barry Marshall

    Yada, yada, yada

  • CASTIEL

    well….good news….i can put the foot down in my car all the time :)

  • That is the entire point of OPEC, they are trying to get rid of US oil firms, but the problem with OPEC setting it so low is that they cant maintain this low oil prices, so who is going to flinch first?

  • Snufy

    In 1970 I bought lots of gasoline for 25 cents per gallon. It isn’t how much you make, it’s what things cost. I don’t feel sorry at all for the companies that want huge profit margins. Greed gets people in trouble. We all have to stay profitable, but the biggest slice of gas prices go to the government in the form of taxes. I remember that several years ago, the gov’t said that when they raised the gas tax, it would solve everything. But, they just kept raising it, and spending. The politicians just cannot keep their greedy paws off of anything. Social Security is a good example. They plundered the account and replaced it with worthless IOU’s.

    • Steeve Girard

      And now they have print a huge amount of paper money that will sleep in the U.S. Treasury accounts, and it’s all gonna be destroyed when they pay the interest on the debt they owe to the FED. The goal of QE was to bust the sleeping vault to increase money velocity… way to fail!

  • Vortex

    Hmmmm………..

    What would happen if money were to be totally yanked out of the worldwide equation and we were left with only food and war?

    Makes ya’ go……………Hmmm……………..

    • Kim

      Wow. Some bad thoughts.

  • jeddai smith

    We should call it what it is. Depression…we have been in a depression since 2008. If not for food stamps, the soup lines would dwarf the lines of the Great Depression. If not for extended unemployment benefits this nation would have already collapsed from internal strife. We will collapse soon because we cannot repay the trillions in debt and the dollar will die.

    • Steeve Girard

      That’s what I said, except I said 2007, Michael says 2005.

  • DrM

    But a sky-rocketing oil prise to 200 Dollar per barrel will also wreak havoc for the economy! Low-income people will pay much more for the fuel, electricity and heating, companies will have to pay much more for commodities and transport, inflation will soar, low-income people will get more indented. Do you remember Peak Oil and the oil price spike back in 2008?

  • lordonlow

    Right on. The other analogy is a dam with water building up. You can keep damming up and up or further down the line, but at some point building must stop. It’s inevitable.

    So is EM08’s third act.

  • Peter ♥ ♈

    I have predict the same here in Europe but no one is listening just like in 1997 when I sad that there would be a economic crisis around 2002 and 2007. My next prediction is around 2018 but it can be sooner because of the war in the Middle-East.

  • Afamiii

    In 2008 oil prices fell because of anticipation of a recession in the US as a result of the popping of a serious bubble in the housing and financial services industry.

    Oil prices fell BECAUSE of the financial crisis. The drop in oil price did NOT cause a financial crisis.

    In this case oil prices fell because of an economic slowdown in Asia AND the refusal of swing producer Saudi Arabia refused to come to the rescue.

    This drop in oil prices will NOT cause a financial crisis.

    Saudi probably felt that rig count in the US would have reduced by more than it has by now. But now expect that at $30 for 6 months shale and sands producers will be cut back. Time will tell whether they are right (the future is not only unknown, it is unknowable). And if not it may well be cut to $20 which is sure to close down enough production.

    The reduction in oil prices is the equivalent of a massive fiscal stimulus for the US and the rest of the West. Expect that another bubble will be blown next year.

    Yes an overdue correction or bear should be expected in equities. But this is not even close to a meltdown sceneario that we saw in 2008.

    In fact I will not be surprised if after a bear correction (when the professionals will fill up their inventories), that it is followed by another period of massive bubbly overvaluation similar to the one that followed the bear market of 1997. i.e. party like its 1999.

    The only thing I can say for sure about the market is that every 3 to 5 years it goes down 30% to 40% and then it goes up, then it goes down and then up again for no reason that can pass close scrutiny. And the same parties seem to sell at the highs and buy during the lows.

    • Scottar

      Maybe you could call it a crony market for the rich.

  • ORANGEDRINK

    King Trump will rule the land as leader of the new world order

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