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Recession 2017? Things Are Happening That Usually Never Happen Unless A New Recession Is Beginning

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New Crisis - Public DomainIs the U.S. economy about to get slammed by a major recession?  According to Gallup, U.S. economic confidence has soared to the highest level ever recorded, but meanwhile a whole host of key economic indicators are absolutely screaming that a new recession is beginning.  And if the U.S. economy does officially enter recession territory in 2017, it certainly won’t be a shock, because the truth is that we are well overdue for one.  Donald Trump has inherited quite an economic mess from Barack Obama, and it was probably inevitable that we were headed for a significant economic downturn no matter who won the election.

One of the key indicators to watch is average weekly hours.  When the economy shifts into recession mode, employers tend to start cutting back hours, and that is happening right now.  In fact, as Graham Summers has pointed out, we just witnessed the largest percentage decline in average weekly hours since the recession of 2008…

Average Weekly Hours

In addition to the decline in hours, Summers has suggested that there are a number of other reasons to believe that a new recession is here…

The fact is that the GDP growth of 4%-5% is not just around the corner. The US most likely slid into recession in the last three months. GDP growth collapsed in 4Q16, with a large portion of the “growth” coming from accounting gimmicks.

Consider the following:

  • Tax receipts indicate the US is in recession.
  • Gross private domestic investment indicates were are in a recession.
  • Retailers are showing that the US consumer is tapped out (see AMZN’s recent miss).
  • UPS, another economic bellweather, dramatically lowered 2017 forecasts.

To me, even more alarming is the tightening of lending standards.  In our debt-based economy, the flow of credit is absolutely critical to economic growth, and when credit starts to get tight that almost always leads to a recession.

So the fact that lending standards have now tightened for medium and large sized firms for six quarters in a row is very bad news.  The following comes from Business Insider

“Although modest over the past couple of quarters, it is still worth noting that this is now the sixth quarter in succession that standards have tightened for large and medium sized firms,” Deutsche Bank economist Jim Reid wrote in a research note to clients.

“This usually only happens in recessions.”

Reid is 100 percent correct on this point.  This is precisely the kind of thing that we would expect to see if a new recession was beginning, and if this trend continues it is hard to imagine that the U.S. economy will be able to continue to grow.

And it is interesting to note that job growth at S&P 500 companies has gone negative for the first time since the last recession, and so large firms are definitely starting to feel the pressure.

Simultaneously, lending standards are also tightening up for consumers

“The most notable tightening in standards though was in consumer loans,” the Fed said. “During the quarter, banks reported an 8.3% net tightening in credit standards for credit cards and 11.6% net tightening for auto loans.”

US consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity and is thus a key driver of growth in the world’s largest economy.

Those numbers for credit cards and auto loans are major red flags.

It is very simple.  Tighter credit means less economic activity which means slower economic growth.  The U.S. economy grew at a dismal 1.9 percent annual rate during the 4th quarter of 2016, and it would be absolutely no surprise if we end up with a negative number for the first quarter of 2017.

One of the big reasons why lending standards are tightening is because bankruptcies are rising.

As I reported the other day, consumer bankruptcies just rose on a year-over-year basis in back to back months for the first time in almost seven years.  Commercial bankruptcies had already been rising on a year-over-year basis throughout 2016, and so the fact that consumer bankruptcies have now joined the party is a very bad sign.

And we have also just learned that real median household income declined in 2016

Its official! The spectacular Obama/Fed “recovery” produced no increase in real medin household income in 2016 (the last year of Obama’s reign of [economic] error). In fact, real median annual household income in December 2016 ($57,827) was 0.9 percent lower than in December 2015 ($58,356).

Yes, I understand that there is a tremendous amount of optimism out there right now because of Donald Trump.

But the truth is that it is literally going to take some sort of an economic miracle to avoid a recession.

And if a recession is going to happen anyway, the Trump administration should want it to occur as quickly as possible.

You see, if a recession starts a year from now, it will be much more difficult for Trump to blame it on Obama.  But if a recession starts right now, he will definitely be able to argue that it happened because of the mess that he inherited from the last administration.

In addition, the sooner the next recession ends the sooner the next recovery can begin.  If a recession is still going on during the 2020 campaign, that would be really bad for Trump, but if a recovery is well underway by then that would be really good for his chances.

If you doubt this, just go back and look at the 1984 campaign.  After a very difficult recession, the U.S. economy bounced back strongly and Ronald Reagan was able to ride that momentum to an easy victory.

So this may sound very strange to many of you, but the truth is that if a new recession is coming Trump supporters should want it to happen as rapidly as possible.

Unfortunately, once a new recession begins it may not play out like recessions normally do.  The U.S. government is 20 trillion dollars in debt, we are in the midst of one of the biggest stock market bubbles in history, and our planet is becoming more unstable with each passing day.  So even though Trump is in the White House and Obama is gone, let there be no doubt that a catastrophic economic crisis could literally erupt at any moment.  I continue to encourage my readers to do all that they can to get prepared, because those that are prepared in advance will have the best chance of successfully getting through what is coming.

Unfortunately, a lot of people out there seem to believe that all of our problems have somehow evaporated just because Donald Trump is now living in the White House.

That is simply not true, and we all need to be praying for guidance and wisdom for Trump and his team as they prepare to deal with the great challenges that are ahead for our nation.

  • socalbeachdude

    JEFF SESSIONS NOW ATTORNEY GENERAL OF THE USA…

    Jeff Sessions is confirmed as Attorney General despite fierce opposition from Elizabeth Warren and other Democrats

    The U.S. Senate voted to confirm Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions as the next attorney general of the United States on Wednesday after fierce opposition from Democrats .

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4206146/Jeff-Sessions-confirmed-U-S-Attorney-General.html

  • socalbeachdude

    TRASHY CLOTHING STORES GO TO WAR AGAINST IVANKA TRUMP…

    Now TJ Maxx and Marshalls are dumping Ivanka too: Signs for her products are thrown in the TRASH and remaining items are HIDDEN in racks as boycott against her fashion line gathers pace

    Ivanka Trump’s beleaguered fashion brand has taken another kicking after the bosses of TJ Maxx and Marshalls demanded stores throw out her advertisements and take down her special displays. Last week workers at the chains – which are both owned by TJX Companies – were told that her products would no longer hold pride of place in the stores.

    ‘Effective immediately, please remove all Ivanka Trump merchandise from features and mix into [other products on the racks],’ the note, leaked to The New York Times, read. ‘All Ivanka Trump signs should be discarded.’

    It’s yet another blow for the socialite’s business, which has already been dropped entirely by a string of retailers, including luxury chains Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus, as a major anti-Trump boycott continues.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4205988/TJ-Maxx-Marshalls-scrap-signs-Ivanka-Trump-s-brand.html

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    Goldman Sachs Says Trump Rally Has Been Curbed

    Trump-fueled enthusiasm is running out.

    Hopes for a pro-growth suite of fiscal policies under President Donald Trump buoyed financial markets after Nov. 8, sparking a rise in measures of consumer and business confidence that sent the gap between these “soft” data and measures of real economic activity to its widest level in six years.

    “For the first time in this expansion, we suspect markets will soon be discovering and digesting a mix of low growth, rising inflation and tighter monetary policy,” concludes the strategist.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-06/goldman-sachs-says-trump-rally-curbed-as-economy-lags-enthusiasm

  • socalbeachdude

    Dow companies report worst revenues since 2010, Dow rises to 20,000 (LOL?) – Wolf Street

    Wall Street hocus-pocus has done an awesome job.

    The Dow-20,000 hats have come out of the drawer after an agonizingly long wait that had commenced in early December with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tantalizingly close to the sacred number before the selling started all over again.

    What a ride it has been. From the beginning of 2011 through January 27, 2017, so a little more than six years, the DJIA has soared 73%, from 11,577 to 20,094. Glorious!!

    But when it comes to revenues of the 30 Dow component companies – a reality that is harder to doctor than ex-bad-items adjusted earnings-per-share hyped by Wall Street – the picture turns morose.

    http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/29/dow-component-companies-report-lowest-revenues-since-2010/

  • K2

    Michael, So all those ‘recession is just around the corner’ articles from you in 2012, 2013,2014,2015,2016 were false then? Because i dont remember you posting these charts then. But you still implied recession would be coming in few months, all those years.

    • socalbeachdude

      The financial situation in the US has been rapidly deteriorating ever since the GRAND GLOBAL DEPRESSION began in August 2007 and is now getting massively worse both here in the US and throughout the world and the epicenter of the huge collapse will be the People’s Republic of China which is the most bogus economy ever seen in the history of the world.

      • K2

        It deteriorated until 2009/early 2010 and picked up again. And when do you think china will collpase? and why?

        • socalbeachdude

          The PBOC (People’s Bank Of China) has created more than $30 trillion of renminbi over the past 10 years while the Federal Reserve has only increased the quantity of US dollars by less than $4 trillion. And the Chinese economy is half the size of the US economy. The Chinese money supply has expanded from less than $3 trillion to now over $34 trillion and without the minimally floating exchange rate of the renminbi to the US dollar, the renminbi would currently be ESSENTIAL WORTHLESS.

          Yuan Bears Strike as Capital Outflows Override PBOC Support

          The currency is set for its biggest annual plunge since 1994

          Forwards and options show traders see more losses ahead

          China’s renewed efforts to curb declines in its currency are doing little to dissuade yuan bears.

          Traders have turned increasingly negative amid tighter liquidity, sending bets for further losses soaring. The gap between forward contracts wagering on the offshore yuan a year from now versus its current level is heading for a record monthly jump, just as the extra cost for options to sell the currency against the dollar hit a six-month high relative to prices for contracts to buy.

          The currency is facing a triple whammy of accelerating capital outflows, faster U.S. interest-rate increases and concerns over domestic financial markets as liquidity tightens. Strategists say its weakening, set to be the biggest this year in more than two decades, may accelerate as the government restores the annual quota for citizens to convert yuan holdings into foreign exchange. President-elect Donald Trump has also threatened to slap 45 percent tariffs on China’s imports to the U.S.

          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-20/yuan-bears-strike-as-capital-outflows-override-pboc-s-support

          The Other Side of the Chinese Economic Miracle

          Over the last three decades, under China’s infrastructure-led public investment boom, total aggregate debt has grown from $2.1 trillion to $28.2 trillion.

          Since 2000, China’s debt in terms of debt to GDP ratio has grown up to 280-290% (approximately), which exceeds the debt levels of highly-indebted developed countries, including the US (269%) and Germany (258%), and emerging countries like Brazil (160%) and India (135%). Over the last three decades, under China’s infrastructure-led public investment boom, the total aggregate debt has grown from $2.1 trillion to $28.2 trillion, which is greater than the combined GDP of the US, Germany and Japan over the same period.

          While mainstream macroeconomics literature tends to largely focus on the government proportion of total debt, it is also important to note that other constituents like corporate debt, financial debt and household debt (in the Chinese context) tend to matter more in gauging a country’s overall indebtedness. In the Chinese case, government debt (marked at 55% of the GDP) remains low as compared to the other three constituents. Corporate debt and financial debt levels are marked at 125% and 65% of China’s GDP. But which economic factor has elicited such a vast volume of debt in China?

          In a recent analysis on China’s public infrastructure-led investment model by some Oxford-based economists, it is shown how lower-quality, high cost ridden public infrastructure investments across China triggered a massive volume of overall debt, bringing the Chinese economy to the cliff of a national debt crisis.

          On observing the investment and debt figures closely, one finds that the growth in China’s absolute debt is almost in equal proportion with the total capital investment; which between 2000 and 2014 was cumulatively $29.1 trillion. Scholars Steven Barnett and Ray Brooks support this further through their study, highlighting that the majority of investments China has made since 2000 remain debt-fuelled.

          https://thewire.in/88239/china-economic-mirace-debt/

          • K2

            China owns most of the debt to itself.Even corporate debt. Also savings rate of households is quite high there. And currency fluctuations happen regularly, they go up and down. Not just chinese currencies, even euro, USD,yen etc go up and down regularly .Capital outflows increase sometimes, decrease sometimes.Again increase, again decrease. Capital inflows should also be looked into, not just capital outflows.

            And stop upvoting yourself, its lame.

          • socalbeachdude

            China is the MOST BOGUS ECONOMY in the world and it doesn’t matter the slightest bit of a hoot who debt is owed to when that debt is due.

          • K2

            Everything you dont agree with….you deliberately call it as bogus. The thing is you dont always have to payoff debt, if you can pay off interest on it. And if collecting debt could collapse economy the govt wont collect debt, it will only collect interest.

          • socalbeachdude

            DEBT MUST ALWAYS BE PAID OFF.

            The only other alternative is DEFAULT.

          • K2

            Always? Only in theory my friend.

            On another note, when do you think china’s debt is due?

          • socalbeachdude

            The US government has NEVER defaulted on any of its federal debt and in fact pays off more than $6 trillion of that debt in full each and every year as US Treasuries (bills, bonds, notes, and TIPS) MATURE which is why it has to sell around $7 trillion a year in new debt in order to raise the funds to pay off its maturing debt.

            The same is true in China where debt has exploded to astronomical levels. All debt has either a PAYMENT SCHEDULE when principal and interest payments are due or in the case of bonds has MATURITY DATES when the debt must either be paid or defaulted on or other arrangements made. Defaults are soaring in China and much of the debt there is held by PROVINCES which are the ultimate responsibility of the government of the People’s Republic of China. As defaults soar interest rates soar correspondingly.

          • K2

            Do you think china will let its ‘provinces’ collapse?. Not at all. They can pay off the same way, US govt pays off. And if they cant…they can take new debt to pay off old debt. Which they what most of them are doing. China will not let its provinces collapse due to unpayable debt. Even if a province defaults, china will not allow that to spread to its financial system or to the whole country.

            Most provinces owe most of the debt to the govt. And chinese govt didnt loan them money to earn interest, it lent them money to build infrastructure. It also priced in possible defaults.

          • socalbeachdude

            Your notions would result in the complete and total COLLAPSE OF CHINA if China took over the provincial government debts. China’s currency would plunge to nearly zero in exchange value and that would total violate their covenants and commitments with the IMF which allowed them to become part of the international currency basket. Moreover, it would result in all countries imposing HUGE TRADE TARIFFS ON CHINA on both goods and services.

            China is in a LOSE-LOSE SITUATION as a result of their absurdly profligate and flagrant printing of money and creation of credit and will pay a very serve price for such bogus stupidity.

          • K2

            Did i say the chinese govt will take over their provincial debt?

          • socalbeachdude

            China’s government actually has no choice but to do so and the situation will play out exactly as I described it.

          • K2

            We will see. And even if i assume what you are saying is true for the sake of argument, it is years away from that to happen.

          • socalbeachdude
      • Paul Patriot

        Answer man, let me ask you, do you know WHY all this is happening?

        • socalbeachdude

          In a word: DEBT

    • mr bitcoin

      few years few months, who cares, it s coming!!!!

      • K2

        Lol .Its like saying in the morning, sun is going set so lets eat dinner.

        Timing matters. Because some people base some of their financial decisions on economic predictions.

        • socalbeachdude

          Those sorts of people are very dimwitted.

          • K2

            But they still exist, so writing stuff that could make people make wrong economic choices is uncalled for.

          • socalbeachdude

            True and correct analysis of the current ABSURDLY ELEVATED BUBBLE MARKETS is absolutely essential for people to make reasonable informed economic decisions. Those who ignore that information do so at their own financial peril.

          • K2

            What makes you think they are ingnoring it, even if they do take it into consideration , articles like these will only end up confusing them.

          • socalbeachdude

            How would the facts confuse anyone with even a slight modicum of any intelligence?

          • K2

            Sometimes people base their decision on ‘trust’ not just intelligence. And taking some charts that shows the economy in a negative way, while ignoring charts that show the economy in a positive way is a ‘half truth’ not a fact. And half truth is as bad as a lie. And these confuse people when they make their financial decisions.

            Blaming people by saying they are dimwitted when they make financial decisions based on believing what you say is horrible.

            You should be ashamed of yourself.

          • socalbeachdude

            Trust in the sense you use it is for fools.

          • K2

            Can you rephrase that? English isnt my first language.

      • K2

        Of course you would say that. mr.bitcoin seller. Yo u want people to buy bitcoins.

    • tom

      If things were not manipulated by the Fed and the government we most certainly would have had a very bad recession. The “can was kicked” through QE 1-3 and Operation Twist. Time is running out as none of the underlying problems was actually addressed and corrected. They were papered over. Math is math. It has no feelings or emotions.

      • K2

        Do you know why ‘recession’ happened in the first place? It happened because some big financial institutions gave too many bad loans too quickly due to faulty analysis, and when they realised that…they started pulling the plug….the housing bubble burst and recession happened. If they would not given so many bad loans so quickly the recession would not have had happened in the first place.

        • JC Teecher

          You make some good points, but remember this…It was the pushing of mortgage loans and personal new vehicle loans for unqualified persons, that drove the crisis.

          Not small business loans, of which is the problem now.
          For start up costs in today’s markets, it takes big bucks. Even with a good business plan, the banks are not willing to stick their necks out, when the risks are high and the very slim possibility of another bailout, if it all goes belly up, is real.

          Trump has called for the Banks to loosen restrictions in regards to small business loans, to help with creating jobs. Not loosening the restrictions on high end mortgage and new vehicle loans.

        • Special Little Snowflake

          Don’t forget that Goldman purposely did bad sub-prime morgage packages saying those people would make a ton of money, and then bet on them to fail.

      • socalbeachdude

        The Federal Reserve’s versions of QE did not put any money into the economy and 100% of the proceeds were deposited in the reserves accounts at the Federal Reserve of the member banks from whom the Federal Reserve purchased existing securities for which there was NO NET GAIN AT ALL FOR THOSE BANKS.

    • Lazarovic

      That’s because he’s a lying propagandist, if you haven’t figured it out by now. He lies to fool people into believing his political fantasies, that’s how he makes his money. He’s a hypocrite and a phony, and the rubes here lap it up like kool aid.

  • socalbeachdude

    John Hussman fully agrees with the assessment of this article and discusses the current situation in great detail in his article at:

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170206.htm

    • K2

      How did hussman’s or fink’s or snyder’s previous predictions fan out? Not just these three but all the predictors of doom and gloom.

      I dont think they are ‘deliberately’ predicting doom and gloom. I think they honestly think there will be a recession.

      But people (even if they are doing it with a good intention) can be wrong in their predictions.

      Also, In order to truly know if a predictor will end up being right or not…..look at their previous predictions.

      • Special Little Snowflake

        Eh, they’ll never get the exact year right on purpose, but capitalism has a “market correction” aka economic downturn every 4-11 years. So eventually they’ll get it right one year.

        • K2

          I dont think, its on purpose. Its because its not easy to predict the exact year.

  • Richard

    Neil Howe has almost completely abandoned his own
    Fourth Turning theory. This is explained by the fact that Howe supports Democrats,
    and so is committed to opposing anything from Donald Trump, even when
    it’s his own Fourth Turning theory. This is just one more of the
    bizarre twists that are common in today’s world.

  • K2

    Average working hours falling can also be explained by obama care, business are cutting hours of workers to below 30 hours weekly, while hiring more workers. As for tightening credit, consumers are already flush with credit, and banks are tightening as a result. There is only so much you can lend.

    • socalbeachdude

      Actual unemployment as fully measured in the US is now around 32% and rising.

      • K2

        source?

        • socalbeachdude

          BLS

          • K2

            Didnt BLS say its around 5 % or something?

          • socalbeachdude

            BLS is the source which who confirms that nearly 100 million Americans who are FULLY ELIGIBLE FOR THE WORK FORCE are not participating in the work force. That is about one-third of all Americans.

            As to unemployment the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) has SIX METRICS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT WHICH THEY ALWAYS REPORT and those are U1, U2, U3, U4, U5, and U6. U6 most comprehensively measures unemployment and hows it presently at 10% and the U6 number was the most widely reported metric up through the Reagan years. These days the White House and the press almost always only report the U3 metric which is about half that at around 5%. You can see the OFFICIAL US GOVERNMENT BLS NUMBERS based on each of those unemployment metrics on a monthly basis at:

            http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

            There are other alternative metrics to calculate unemployment and the most prominent of those is the SGS metric used by ShadowStats which pegs current unemployment at around 23.4% and rising:

            http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/employment

            There is no way to factually determine unemployment and underemployment with complete accuracy, obviously, as all reports are based on SAMPLING SURVEYS and EXTRAPOLATIONS from those surveys.

            Actual unemployment in the US is currently as high as 32% based on more than 95 million people eligible for the work force currently not working and about 8 million additional people not working but actively seeking jobs which is what the U-3 metric measures.

          • K2

            You cant base your unemployment figures by taking into consideration people who are studying, or housewives who dont want to work. That 95 million people includes these two groups too.

            And if U6 is the most comprehensive and gives the unemployment figure at 10%, why did you say that unemployment is 32%?

          • socalbeachdude

            Many of the 95+ million unemployed in the US would work if there were jobs available and many of the 150 million or so Americans actually working do not even have full time jobs. Actual unemployment in the US as fully measured is now around 32% and rising.

          • K2

            Even some kinder garten kids would be ready to work if jobs for them will be available, that doesnt mean you count them as unemployed if they are in school.

            Also more people are working now than in the depths of the last recessions, and the economy is adding thousands of jobs every month.

  • socalbeachdude

    Why It Feels Like the Dot-Com Bubble All Over Again

    • U.S. stocks seem to have lost touch with reality…

    As we all know, the stock market allows investors to own a piece of publicly traded companies. Most of the companies on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) are U.S. companies.

    Because of this, you would think the stock market would generally follow the health of the economy. If the economy’s booming, stocks should be soaring. If the economy’s struggling, stocks should be, too.

    That hasn’t been the case lately.

    Since 2009, the S&P 500 has surged 239% to record highs. That makes this one of the strongest bull markets in U.S. history.

    During that same span, the U.S. economy has grown just 2% per year. That makes the current “recovery” one of the weakest since World War II.

    In short, Main Street hasn’t kept up with Wall Street.

    • The U.S. stock market is now clearly in “bubble territory”…

    http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/why-it-feels-like-the-dot-com-bubble-all-over-again

    • K2

      The way you have too look at the stock market is whether you can make money off it or not. If its rising, look for a good company to buy stocks, (keep an eye on it and sell off if it rises/when you need money) or if its falling.

      Simply looking at the stock market and saying oh its in a bubble and buying tons of freeze dried food and going into a bunker is foolish.

      Make money off the stock market (keeping an eye on its fluctuations ofcourse)

      • socalbeachdude

        Markets are a PRICE DISCOVERY MECHANISM and do not exist for you to “make money off” and it appears that you are just a reckless little gambler totally ignoring the fundamentals.

        • K2

          Wrong! They exist to make money. And i am reckless? I clearly said people need to keep an eye on it regularly.

          • socalbeachdude

            No, they most certainly do not exist for that purpose at all.

          • K2

            Yes they do.

          • socalbeachdude

            False.

          • K2

            You are wrong.

          • socalbeachdude

            Nope. Markets have been DISTORTED AND CORRUPTED by greedy and very stupid gamblers who will pay a severely expensive price when they crash.

          • K2

            The point we are discussing is whether they exist to make money or not. We are not discussing whether they are clean or distorted.

            And ofcourse people will pay a price if they crash. That is why i said people should keep an eye on their stocks and sell them when they begin to fall. Buy when they are rising…sell when they begin to fall.

          • socalbeachdude

            No, they most certainly do not exist for that purpose at all.

          • K2

            Yeah i agree, the only purpose they exist is for people to point at them and say….see stock valuations are high! Which means buy freeze-dried food and go back into your bunker.

            /s

        • Globalist Speculator

          One can speculate on commodity derivatives, stock derivatives and forex using both fundamental analysis (news, events, et cetera) and technical analysis (Fibonacci retracement, chart patterns, et cetera) and, despite not being able to time the market, still generate a gargantuan profit.

          I speculate on forex, options, various futures, et cetera. The most proficient trades I have made were with GBP/USD and USD/JPY. I have an average return of >43% with forex and about 25% with stocks. I also have several kilograms of gold, so as to ameliorate any losses.

  • Cinderella Man

    I’m gonna state this as cleary as possible…the radical left is using their ISIS army to overthrow the democratically elected President of the United States and launching their common core and college “educated” brats on to the streets to protest. Their senators are gonna obstuct and sue President Trump every step of the way. This is far worse than a simple recession. This is the start of a second civil war. States attorney generals do NOT hold sway over the commander in chief order to control immigration!! If the economy collapses which it will during a time of political unrest is like thowing gasoline on a fire!! These are serious times we live in indeed!!

    • socalbeachdude

      No, it certainly isn’t the start of any “civil [or uncivil] war” at all, but just a few obstructions in the road from idiots.

      • William Lutz

        Viva la revolucion, amigo.

        • Cinderella Man

          I notice you didn’t deny or act ashamed when I accuse you lefties of using ISIS…hmmm

    • K2

      A few people protesting on the streets is civil war? All those protests will die down in a few days. There are different people protesting for different causes at different times in different places. And nobody is protesting for weeks together in sufficient number to cause a civil war. For a civil war to happen…millions of people should protest on the streets with guns for weeks together and start shooting police, army etc. A few hundred people throwing stones at stores for a couple of days, doesnt cause a civil war.

      • William Lutz

        You’re right. To me, those “riots” are not enough. I hope the turmoil escalates.

        • MikeAZwildcats

          LOL

        • K2

          Be careful what you wish for.

        • jaxon64

          You would be an early casualty—remember we all know what you look like, short, chubby with coke-bottle glasses. You would come here and whine about being unable to find a job and living with mommy.
          Obviously, in your desperation, you have sold out and taken to trolling for a few bucks ( or probably trolling for free as a disgruntled quitter).
          Here is some true advice from a male mentor–get busy. Take 2 or 3 crappy jobs if you have to, at least you’ll have self respect from working hard. Don’t quit, fill out an application or 2 every day and spend some time every day learning, praying and exercising–1 year from now your life will be positive instead of “I wish the world would burn and everyone dies” attitude.

        • aldownunder

          you are a fool

      • tom

        Wait until spring/summer….The next wave will emerge and there will be violence unfortunatley

        • K2

          Why do you think that will happen?

          • tom

            The first wave of protests was not effective. Trump did not leave office, his cabinet is now being confirmed, some speakers at colleges that were “shut down” are still making efforts to speak ( First Amendment) and the “silent majority” are by and large behind the new president.

            As the weather improves, I think there will be another round of protests on college campuses. That will stir up some people who will go out and create problems in other public spaces…the streets, subway /train stations and airports. These people will be looking to provoke and goad average Americans going about their lives into losing their cool and fighting them. It is twisted, but what the Soros funded progressives and group want in all sorts of trouble across the country. It forces the President and others to pay attention to those “fires” and distract them from doing their job/ implementing and overseeing their business ( tax cuts/securing the border/ etc).

            As these demonstrations in the public get violent, the police are drawn in. These groups will then be reinforced by more violent groups willing to confront the police. BLM, illegal immigrant criminals and anarchists will become the prominent face of the left. There will be fatal confrontations with the police. The “non-violent” progressives will then emerge in large numbers in protests and take to the streets. This is organized chaos designed to cripple the nation and cause problems.

            I was not a fan of the prior administration, but I did not take to the streets, overrun college campuses, advocate violence as a final response to not getting what I wanted. I did what most Americans have done in the past. I wrote letters and e-mails to various politicians, I called their offices when in disagreement or concerned of upcoming policies, I reached out to friends, family and neighbors urging them to take action ( positive law abiding action). I read books and articles to support my positions and back up my arguments. Sometimes there was success and policies were held up/ didn’t take effect. Other times my “side” lost . I never got to the point of advocating for violence and overthrow.

          • K2

            Its a cool story, but all that aint gonna happen. School/college students wont go so far as to provoke other civilians or take law into their own hands.

            And Sure some violent people can be hired, to provoke violence, but some people fighting back against them is not what media wants. Media wants people to think all people are protesting against trump. So it wont suit the media if protesters provoke other protestors and people fight against each other.

            Its not easy to over throw a govt of a big country, US is not libya.

          • tom

            I hope not, but I don’t like the underlying tone.
            It’s not easy to overthrow a government of a big country like ours, but if , over time, people with certain ideologies gain access to various departments and branches of the government, get entrenched, secure re-election after re-election, and appoint others who are like-minded, it is possible.

          • K2

            Yeah but if that happens, then it is atleast 8 years away.

          • jakartaman

            As long as all the rioting and
            murders stay in the urban
            democratic dumps – fine. they step into america red areas they will find big troubles

          • Ken

            Credit is freezing up. If interest rates rise on credit cards, credit becomes more expensive, and those living on credit will be unable to pay their bills. As more areas are affected by falling crop yields due to the changing weather patterns, food will become scarce and more expensive. So, if riots don’t happen this summer, they will become more likely next year this time.

          • K2

            Falling crop yields due to changing weather patterns is a slow process that will happen spread out over years. Not by this time next year. And a few riots dont make a civil war.

            A ‘civil war’ is a ‘war’ not a protest.

          • Ken

            So you would think. But crop failures are already happening in Europe and Australia. Produce prices are already rising.

            NOAA has been faking weather data, so weather patterns have been changing while “officialdom” lies about it. It’s already snowing in the Southern Hemisphere in summer.

            Since you appear to be unaware, I suggest you catch up. Sleeping though the ice age start up phase will catch people unprepared to survive the coming food shortages and food price inflation.

            Ice ages can ramp up much faster than previously thought. Could happen in 8 short years. Clif High writes about the changes in his ALTA reports. If you don’t know about Clif and the ALTA reports, you should start with the recently released February 2017 report.

            https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-5dIHmtQzHIdNCs7-bEdCA

          • K2

            Crop failures always happen. Also how much crop is failing as a percentage now. And prices…rise and fall all the time. Prices these days are ‘higher’ than earlier decades for the same reason prices of higher commodities are higher these days than they were a few decades ago.

            That video shows winters are getting more severe by saying snow storms are getting severe. But it cleverly leaves out the fact that ‘summers’ are also getting hotter. And rainy season/monsoons/wet season are also getting either a)Much drier (far less rain than normal) OR b) Too much rain in just one season leading to mass flooding.

            Meaning….not just winter but summer and rainy seasons are also getting weird. All seasons are getting weird and extreme….not just winter. So the idea that we are going into a next ice age is ‘absurd’.

            But their effects on crops are a long term play. Crop yields will decrease but slowly. And new farmland is coming online in many places to compensate for lower crop yields.

          • socalbeachdude

            Crop yields are at RECORD HIGH LEVELS which is why the commodities prices for them have been plummeting ever since 2011.

          • K2

            Ken, see?

          • Ken

            “Past performance is not guarantee of future returns.” It’s the future I’m talking about, not the past.

            I’m stacking up on storeable food, and anyone not doing the same cannot complain when food prices skyrocket and interruptions in supply make finding food difficult. You can remain in your illusion and rely on your normalcy bias. I’m just trying to warn the “aware” ones out there. The rest I leave to your own devices. Good luck!

          • K2

            Stack up. Telling others to do the same is not wrong, but dont spread false news that ‘global cooling’ is happening over here. You are trying to warn people here over what exactly?. I and socal dude, just proved that what you are espouting is false.

            The ‘reasons’ you gave for encouraging people to stack up were false. That was what i had issue with.

          • K2

            Everything will go to hell eventually….but that will happen years and years later and slowly.

            But using that as an excuse to influence people’s economic investments and decisions (like warning people to stay away from the stock market, even after they have been wrong about the market many times) just so that the prepper industry can sell freeze-dried food is horrible.

            Many people could have made money if they didnt leave the stock market since the last few years. But leaving the market, made them lose the opportunity to make money.

            This is why i am pissed at the prepper industry.

    • William Lutz

      I’m calling for a Civil War II and World War III. Let’s take to the streets with weapons and begin the bloodbath. I hope it happens soon. I dream of violence and destruction.

      • MikeAZwildcats

        “I dream of violence and destruction.” Hahahahahaha that made me literally laugh out loud. Where you from? We should meet up…i want you on my side when SHTF!

        • Mike Smithy

          You know all real Wildcats are from Kansas, but I like your style.

        • JC Teecher

          Be careful who you align with, he is a muzzie. They like sharp blades and beheading little innocent Christian children.

        • Paul Patriot

          Trust me, no, no you don’t want to be on his side when SHTF….people who dream of violence and destruction will first to be killed

      • K

        There is an Attorney general now. Sure you want to keep inciting to violence?

      • Paul Patriot

        Ha ha , you have no clue what you are dreaming of….you are a troll, (probably in mommies basement) making comments to get people riled up.

        Does George “I’m going to hell” Soros pay you by the word or by the post???

        I should report your inciteful comments to homeland security.

    • SnodtBlossom

      CinderellaDirtbag.. get a job instead of wasting your time on this board before you end up living in your car again.. Not that I’ll miss you when you’re gone.

      • Mark

        You know Sh!tBlossom,

        You are a typical L I b t a r d that has air for brains. The old hag that you are plus all the other blog names you use is why our country is going down the sh!tdrain. I bet your a really contribute to society don’t ya. Maybe you should take an Econ 101 class and get educated. Lose some weight, get in fighting shape, take an Econ class, and call me in the morning. Libtarditis is a mental disease that has destroyed many societies.

        • Gord

          I almost peed myself laughing reading your narrative to the l
          ibtard! Too funny for words! I’m from Canada where we have more than our fair share of libtards but boy you guys in the states have enough goofball libs to be very competitive with my nutcase nation.

          • Mark

            Unfortunately I think we may have surpassed you in Canada. Ya, Libtard nation is getting bad down here. Take Sh!tblossom for example….This old hag is as far a left wing nut job as you get and I believe that she should be in an insane asylum. However, the she could be a he so her new nickname is shim. Lol My advice is to always be on the lookout for Libtards.

            Take care my friend.

    • The Seer

      The wise realists who are honorable and respectful will prevail. The thugs on this site will continue downward and in devolution finally to be judged in their life review and sent back to the lower frequency schools of light in dramatic instruction to remove their veils of ignorance and wrath – a total wasted incarnation – again . . . Ha ha!

    • Jack Frost

      Only the ultra-liberal left could hatch a plot to make the nation “ungovernable” as a political strategy. They fail to realize this is tantamount to anarchy. They think because they can burn, loot and riot in a secure controlled space provided by the police that this will apply nationwide. When they attempt to spread their antics beyond the liberal zones of control is when they will face their worst nightmare. People will not idly stand by and allow these ideologues to loot and burn their homes and neighborhoods for any reason, but especially to support a crazy political position. The ultra liberal herd faces significant thinning if they continue to pursue this agenda.

  • socalbeachdude

    These are the Countries with the Biggest Debt Slaves, and Americans Are Only in 10th place

    Americans have been on a borrowing binge. To buy their favorite cars and trucks, they’ve loaded up on $1.14 trillion in auto loans. Young and not so young Americans are mortgaging their future with student loans that now amount to $1.28 trillion. Credit card and other debts are at $1.12 trillion. And mortgage debt stands at $8.82 trillion.

    So, total household debt was $12.35 trillion, according to the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report for the third quarter 2016. That’s a massive amount of debt. Many consumers are struggling with it. Student loans are seeing enormous default rates, and repayment rates are far worse than previously disclosed.

    Comparing total household debt to the overall size of the economy as measured by GDP is one of the measures. And per this household-debt-to-GDP measure, the Americans are in 10th place with 78.8% and look practically prudent compared to the peak just before the Financial Crisis…

    http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/22/these-are-the-countries-with-the-biggest-debt-slaves-and-americans-are-only-in-10th-place/

    • K2

      What do you do for a living?

      • Guest

        He clutters up the comments section of sites like this one.

      • socalbeachdude

        A what?

  • mr bitcoin

    buy BITCOIN

    today…

  • ali

    2014, 15, 16 all were supposed to be recession years due to some key economic indicators. Now this is getting repetitive and boring. Change your blogs name to economicboomblog.

    • socalbeachdude

      They were all recession years and the entire “economic recovery” has been nothing other than BS.

      • K2

        You are spouting BS.

        • socalbeachdude

          What I am stating are the actual facts.

          • K2

            Nope.

          • socalbeachdude

            You are simply not paying attention.

          • K2

            You are cherrypicking.

          • socalbeachdude

            Far from that. I am providing actual BIG PICTURE FACTS AND ANALYSIS.

          • K2

            You are providing actual big picture lies and false analysis and by using bold letters, darker print and by upvoting yourself.

          • socalbeachdude

            Laughably false.

          • K2

            Seriously true.

  • socalbeachdude

    BlackRock’s Larry Fink sees ‘dark shadows’ in markets

    High consumer confidence and stock prices ‘horrifying’

    One chart that Fink calls “horrifying” is the climb of consumer confidence along with the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.07% reasoning that the time to buy stocks was when both the S&P 500 and consumer confidence were at lows, like in 2009. Now with both at highs, investors are saying, “Maybe you should be selling now,” he said.

    “I believe we’re in the midst of a slowdown as we speak, because of all the uncertainty,” he said.

    Additionally, if the promise of President Donald Trump’s pro-business policies get delayed — say, if it takes Congress a full year to get anything pushed through — then markets are ahead of themselves, Fink said.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/blackrocks-larry-fink-sees-dark-shadows-in-markets-2017-02-08

  • JC Teecher

    Since Pelosi is now calling Trump,..Mr.Bush, and the wackadoodle black woman liberal from California says Putin is invading Korea, while Pocahontas from Mass has flapped her gums and wings so long, they clipped them both for her, while ole schumawhore cries more Crocodile tears, the whole country is on standstill it seems.

    A fund manager today says he sees the markets moving by 20% over the next few months. However; if things continue as they are, politically, that 20% move could just as easily be to the down side.

    A 20% slide, might cause more volatility than the markets can bear, and then a bigger sell off could follow. As long as gasoline and diesel doesn’t go to five bucks a gallon, it won’t matter much to us. We have been loaded, locked, stocked, and ready to rock, for years now.

    • mtntrek3

      Hey there JCT.. , how are you btw? Hopefully well. Heard from Bill? Hope he’s o.k. too.

      • JC Teecher

        Chris, I am about as good as I can be without a fishing rod & reel in my hand, and feeling the bump-bump of a trout/crappy/pan fish.

        Went to the Reservation a few weeks ago, and caught 7 Rainbows from 12″ to 16″, and very fat. Nice fillets in the freezer.

        Putting the finishing touches on my first short book, and look forward to furthering the work for the Lord and mankind.

        • mtntrek3

          Hey, that’s great news. Trout in the oven for a short while with some butter and lemon/pepper …. can’t be beat. Good to hear about your book also. Carry on brother. Chris.

          • JC Teecher

            or, Grilled with a garlic/ginger/butter baste.
            or,Dredged in buttermilk, and lightly S & P. floured, and dropped in canola oil at 360′.
            or, just panned fried in real butter, until a light brown crust forms.

          • mtntrek3

            Cut it out, you’re making me hungry. Lol. Back this way, crappie are the ultimate pan fish. Bluegill are up there as well……. with a few more bones to contend with. Bass/catfish to round out the list. My wife is leaning towards the kosher animals. Healthier I agree. Yet .. as the Apostle Paul said all is lawful for me to eat. Having said that, I may have misquoted him as well. I need to look that up.

          • JC Teecher

            The key to that scripture is remembering to read it with understanding, and this important point, “created to be received”.

            1Ti 4:3
            Forbidding to marry, and commanding to abstain from meats, which God hath created to be received with thanksgiving of them which believe and know the truth.

            Nothing was changed about the health laws given in Leviticus, by God, some 3500+ years ago.
            Scavengers are still bad for us humans.
            Pork is bad, but I just had my weekly BLT.
            Catfish has no scales and it is a scavenger fish, but a good slab of farm raised cat fish has consumed less pond turds, so I still eat it once in a while.
            River cats, not any longer on my grocery list.

            The angry mutha-n-beast of all in laws, says all those food laws were nailed to the cross, and she eats ham all the time, and yes stays sickly and ill all the time.

          • mtntrek3

            Lol. : ) Yep … they all are tasty. Bottom feeders land, river, lake or sea aren’t the cleanest of critters… but all is lawful now. Still, to refer to the cleanest…. follow the kosher standards of God.

        • mtntrek3

          I (and my family)used to be big quail and rabbit hunters around in this area in S. Illinois. Mainly quail. When my wife and I were out in Arizona while I was in the Air Force back in the early nineties ….. we would go up into the areas between Oracle and the Catalina mountain range north of Tucson. Gambel quail galore. Tasty buggers on the dinner plate for sure. Back here in S. Il. we have more deer than anything nowadays. My brother-in-law helps keep us fed with whitetail in various forms and we’re grateful. The only good deer is the one on the dinner plate…. the rest are a nuisance Lol. Anyway….. Take care, God Bless JCT.

    • mtntrek3

      Your last sentence speaks volumes btw.

    • mtntrek3

      Went for a heart cath. @ J. Cochran in St. Louis today. Good news. No blockages. Thanking the Lord. : ).

      • JC Teecher

        Glad to hear the good news of no blockages in the pipes. Thanks be to the Lord!

        • mtntrek3

          Heard from Bill? Concerned about him.

          • JC Teecher

            No, as I do not have his email, and he has been quiet here. Yes, I have thought about him lately, and hope he is just on a sort of sabbatical. he and I disagree on the pre-trib/any moment/fly away to escape the tribulation hour, but I don’t think any less of him as a person. We should say a prayer for him.

          • mtntrek3

            You know, we’ve got to stick together as a family under God as best we can. We as our earthly families of course have our disagreements and spats ( it goes with the territory) , but hoping we can sort things out. We need to pray for one another for sure. The enemy is determined to part us and destroy us. Ultimately God won’t allow that to happen. : ) .

        • mtntrek3

          And yes, God is good. All the time. :-) .

      • yoda

        So if you had a blockage would you be thanking the lord for that also?

        • mtntrek3

          ?? If I had concerns such as heart blockages or otherwise it would be another opportunity to place my faith deeper into God. While I thank God for my good health in this world….. my ultimate faith is in the eternal through faith in God.

          • Yoda

            If you did not have concerns over a blockage why did u get a heart cath? Obviously u did have some type of concern.

          • mtntrek3

            A stress test(inconclusive) along with occasional chest pains indicated further tests were in order. The heart cath showed no congestion in the arteries. Yet, I still have occasional chest pains. May have to go to neurology for the next step. I’ve had chest pains associated with a partial hiatal hernia for several years. ….. The pains now are something different. I’m glad for the positive heart cath results. The thing is….. it’s all in God’s Hands ultimately.

          • Yoda

            If you believe it is all in gods hands then why bother with doctors? Truth is you don’t believe it 100% nor should you.

          • mtntrek3

            God provides us with the knowledge to help ourselves. We do as we can to help ourselves ……. . Ultimately everything lies in God’s Hands.

          • mtntrek3

            So who or what do you trust in may I ask?

          • JC Teecher

            He believes in Obi
            wan Kenobi, not the gsob one though.

          • mtntrek3

            ; )

          • Paul Patriot

            Yoda will not answer, he/she is just a troll wanting to poe fun at those who have faith in the Lord

          • mtntrek3

            Well, my hope is Yoda and all that can come to know Jesus as their Savior. : ) . Take care.

          • Paul Patriot

            Ahhhhh…because we live in a fallen world and God gave doctors to fit the purpose of heath of our bodies.

      • Paul Patriot

        Amen. Praise God.

        Wishing you continued health!

        • mtntrek3

          Thanks Paul. God Bless.

  • William Lutz

    My dream is that most of this starts coming down pretty soon. I would love nothing more than to see the economic fiasco and all the bloody riots on the streets. I would like the same Venezuelan crisis to happen here.

    • K2

      why?

      • aldownunder

        because he is a fool

    • Orange Jean

      You first then… you really want to see people starve to death? WHY??

    • Paul Patriot

      I hope that “crisis” you would like to see starts right out your front door.

  • The Hovis Trader

    Can I just say very few people understand the stock market – Elliott Wave Theory have been calling for the crash of all crashes since 1986! they then change their view to suit and the next top then becomes the crash of all crashes! the stock market LEADS the economy – I warned my readers years ago what to expect and its HAPPENED – The stock market works to its own remit and that remit is pre-defined growth and decline – just like GOLD in 2011 the world was going to crash and gold was going to keep on rising! Again it caught you all out – The best way to understand what is really going on is to LEARN from those of us who actually know AND make a living from the markets – not hypist’s who warn you of this that or the other all the time to suit their personal observations and outlooks – the stock market will not suffer the crashes of all crashes (It actually happened and nearly EVERYONE missed it!) The HOVIS Trader

    • Spatial Memory

      Thanks for guessing. LOL

  • Spatial Memory

    ….”because of Donald Trump.

    But the truth is that it is literally going to take some sort of an economic miracle to avoid a” …..

    Recognize a pattern yet? When bloggers have zero formal education nor experience in banking, finance and capital markets whatsoever, each and every traditional idiosyncratic price discovery machination appears to be “some sort of an ‘economic’ miracle….

    • socalbeachdude

      That really does sum up your comments perfectly!!!

  • Bob

    Michael:
    Take a look at the numbers. We never recovered from the 2008 recession. The government reports a 3% increase in GDP, but forgets to back out inflation. Have all of us visited the grocery store lately and seen the rising prices and smaller portion sizes? Although a few blips occurred the past 9 years, the recession never ended and will not end. The next stop: currency crisis.

    • socalbeachdude

      Grocery store prices have PLUNGED over the past year and are extremely inexpensive. What has gone up is medical expense costs and housing costs which are far bigger portions of the typical family budget than groceries by a huge margin.

      DEFLATION ACCELERATES AT THE GROCERY STORE

      Grocery prices are plunging – Bloomberg

      Call it the Great Grocery-Store Giveaway of 2016.

      In Austin, Texas, Randalls slashed prices for boneless beef ribs by 40 percent, to $3.99 a pound. Not to be outdone, the H-E-B grocer down the street charged $1 a pound less. Not long ago, Albertsons advertised a deal you don’t normally see on your finer cuts of meat: “buy 1 get 1 free” specials on “USDA Choice Petite Sirloin Steak.”

      And what does $1 buy these days? In North Bergen, New Jersey, you could pick up a dozen eggs at Wal-Mart. OK, the price was actually $1.14. A mile away, check out Aldi, the German supermarket discounter, which can actually break the buck — 12 eggs for 99 cents. A year ago, you would have paid, on average, three times that price.

      In a startling development, almost unheard of outside a recession, food prices have fallen for nine straight months in the U.S. It’s the longest streak of food deflation since 1960 — with the exception of 2009, when the financial crisis was winding down. Analysts credit low oil and grain prices, as well as cutthroat competition from discounters. Consumers are winning out; grocery chains, not so much. Their margins and, in some cases, their stock prices, are taking a hit.

      Eggs and beef have have grown especially inexpensive, and it isn’t only an American phenomenon.

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-27/eight-cent-eggs-consumers-gobble-cheap-food-as-grocers-squirm

      • Orange Jean

        Well now THAT comes as a huge surprise to me! Where I live (southeastern VA) the cost of food in the past 2 years has absolutely skyrocketed!

        Wonder why that is true here if not other places?

        • socalbeachdude

          Food prices have NEVER BEEN LOWER AS A PERCENTAGE OF A TYPICAL FAMILY’S BUDGET and are an ABSOLUTELY TRIVIAL expense these days.

          I recently got back from Ralphs and Vons here in Southern California and spent $14.69 and got a large deli Signature Cafe 44 oz. pizza for $5 at Vons on a rain check, one 14 oz. can of Nally’s Onion Chili for 79 cents, 1 Artichoke & Jalepeno 10 oz. dip for $2.29, four 8 oz. blocks of Pepper Jack Cheese (2 pounds) for $1.49 per package for $5.96 which is less than $3 per pound, 2 bananas for 65 cents at 69 cents per pound, plus a Free Friday 2 oz. bag of Airhead Bites from Ralphs, and as I stated the total bill for all of that was $14.69.

          Plus I get 1% cash back for using my credit card to make the purchases which is yet another savings of 15 cents.

          Learn to be a SAVVY SHOPPER.

  • JC Teecher

    Something I have been pondering lately, as it seems the world is teetering on economic/banking/monetary, and moral collapse, and all out WW3.

    What if God has placed D Trump over the USA, to help the Christians deal with and cope, if these big events come to fruition?

    The left has already gone bookoodinkydau. If the world economic collapse causes them to lose their funds, then they will self-implode, and blame Trump and Christians, and probably God Almighty.
    Blaming God for being stupid, is never a position a person wants to be caught in. it never ends well for the ignorant accuser.

    Case in point. Stepdaughter was just starting college about 8 years ago, and saw the world as her oyster. She made a stupid decision, by kicking her loyal, and hard working boyfriend to the side, for an ego tripping guy that was returning from Iraq. (Entitled war hero mentality) She laid up with this guy for about three days, and well, it wasn’t just three days of making cup cakes and watching old movies. wink wink

    After he got his fill, he moved on to his next victim and dropped her like a hot potato. She cried and boo hoo’d around for a few days, and at supper made the big mistake of saying, “why is God doing all this bad stuff to me”.

    That began her down hill slide. When I tried to talk to her she cussed me and said she “believed”, and that was all she needed, and not my preaching. In less than three years, she dropped out of college, with no transfer credits, no place to live in the big city, except sleeping on a friends couch, a car that was beat to pieces and barely running, with slick tires, and $110,000.00 in debt for college loans.
    She eventually got a job as a waitress, but with a boss lady that could not stand her attitude. (Guess who got the best seating customers/tips, and working hours).

    eight years later, and she is no better off, as she lives with a bee-autch of a grandma, and has too mooch off her. She visits her mother, but is not allowed to stay here, because she is too lazy to even pick up after herself, and will not bathe until she absolutely has too.

    The cursings continue and all she got from me for Christmas…was a new Bible. The Word is in her hand, but will she use it to pull herself out of bondage? One can hope, but it ain’t looking good.

    • “V”

      I feel your pain sir. My sister in law and her two kids moved in with us “Temporarily”a year and a half ago. She always seems to have money to burn but not any to support herself and her two kids. The sperm donor (they were never married) is a dead beat and thus pays no child support. She turns 38 this year and has only a 2006 car to show for her life’s work. Me, I just shake my head in disbelief at her futile efforts and want nothing more than to slap her in the head as hard as I can and yell “WAKE UP” this is YOUR LIFE, get serious about it.

  • sister soldier

    Recession/Depression is baked into the cake. All economies where GDP is the driving engine have cyclical cycles and downturns that are as ubiquitous as rain.

    In the case of our nation, America, is handicapped by the ruling class elites where those who actually produce something compensate those who produce absolutely nothing such as career politicians and CEO’s that earn grossly enormous amounts that out distances those who are in the labor force (purpose driven wealth disparity gaps). One thing is for sure the government cannot give anybody , anything, that it does not first “take” from someone who has it to give by creating revenue out of personal income taxes. Therefore they cannot solve one problem without creating a new crisis. It’s the fly in all of their economic ointment(s).

    “When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work, because somebody else will get what they work for, that is the the beginning of the end of any nation.”

  • LIZ THE SHIZ

    until Trump can start a war with Iran and really get the economy booming it’s pump and dump , baby

    • socalbeachdude

      Wars severely damage economies and create huge additional amounts of government debt.

  • mtntrek3

    Good work ethics a must. Responsibility another need of society. The working class doing what they can ……… without responsibility/ethics from the ones employing/paying them is a lesson in futility. What I’m seeing is the game is nearly called. Christ first.

  • seekless

    Obama tripled the debt, worse than any other pres.

    • socalbeachdude

      During the 8 Obama years, the federal government debt nearly (but not quite) DOUBLED from around $10 trillion to just under $20 trillion, but that increase isn’t done by Presidents but rather authorized and approved by CONGRESS and then merely signed into law by a President of the United States.

  • DJohn1

    Having looked at the policies Mr. Trump wishes to install, It is not going to be a recession as much as a devaluation of the currency. This will occur simply by removing cheap foreign manufactured goods from the market place. The result will be chaos. Instead of costing $1 the same item is likely to cost around $6.
    So we will likely have an inflation that is out of sight.
    Offsetting this inflation will be money from less taxes. But will that be retro or will it be next year’s taxes?
    The main losers of all of this are the people on fixed incomes. Whether it be from employment without raises or people on pensions, an inflation of this type will put them both in the poor house.
    COLA at one time was an effective way to make sure our money still held value simply by giving decent raises to people on Social Security. It is a poor joke by Congress under current rules.
    Under the current people, they want to decrease benefits not increase them.
    Raising the cost of everything is not the way to put people back to work.
    Increasing the spendable income of the average person will have a short term effect of keeping retail companies solvent.
    Doing away with the entire concept of Obamacare being forced down the throats of everyone will also give us a boost. Our new Republican Congress is all talk just like it was described by one Donald Trump. They are even as we speak attempting to keep Obamacare going.
    What needs to happen here is to take mandatory insurance off the table and make the marketplace competitive instead for insurance coverage.
    Take away the massive deductables that have occurred under this government sponsored monopoly for the insurance industry.
    Investigate and lower prescription costs across the board. Fine the companies taking advantage to rob the patients as it now stands.
    Make it legal to go across the Canadian border where prescription prices are mandated by a government negotiating the prices down significantly.
    Bring competition back.
    The next great depression is going to be a crash world wide not just here. And in the meantime, you will see banks show their true colors. Al Capone was an amateur compared with these people.
    I think Mr. Trump will have his hands full in the next 4 years simply cleaning house. Which is basically what his TV show was all about. You fire the incompetent people until you get people competent to do the job.
    I don’t know if Mr. Trump can make this happen with all the protections currently in place with government bureaus.
    I do like the shaking up going on. It means we may end up with a far better situation that we now have. Or he might make it far worse than it is today.

    • socalbeachdude

      Nope. The proposed tariffs will not add much to the cost of items at all for the most part – with the exception of vehicles if a tariff is put in place on imported cars. We are in a MAJOR DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL which will simply continue to intensify and the US dollar will become increasingly stronger and is headed to well over 120 on the DXY from its present value of around 100.

  • socalbeachdude

    US STOCK INDICES SET NEW RECORD HIGHS…

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/09/us-markets.html

    • Spatial Memory

      DJIA well above 20,000 now – while you continue to predict djia crash to 2,000 since djia 10,000 range!! Too funny!!

      • socalbeachdude

        Stock markets always crash from their TOPS and the huge crash of the DJIA 30 is closer than ever now!!! Too funny!!!

        • Spatial Memory

          Same repertoire while markets confirm such nonsense horrendously incorrect. Bulls laughing to the banks!!

          • socalbeachdude

            The economic risk of ignoring arithmetic – John Hussman

            When we observe the greatest follies of our predecessors, the episodes of speculative madness that come most immediately to mind are the pre-crash bubble peaks of 1929, 2000, and to a lesser extent, 2007. Unfortunately, we are in the midst of yet another episode of equivalent speculative madness, but one that will only be recognized in hindsight, and in the recollections of our children. They too are likely to take pride in a feeling of superior knowledge, forgetting the same lessons, and eventually creating another bubble and collapse of their own. The herd mentality is human nature. As in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009, when the S&P 500 collapsed by 50% and 55% respectively, we’ll likely see that herd mentality expressed on the downside soon enough. That also is human nature.

            The stock market bubble that ended with the September 1929 peak began in August 1921, running just a few days beyond 8 years in duration. The bubble that ended with the March 2000 peak began in October 1990, running fully 9 years and 5 months in duration. Those two episodes represent the longest bull markets in U.S. history. The current half-cycle began at the March 2009 low, and has now run 7 years and 10 months in duration, making it the third-longest advance in history, placing it just 2 months short of the 1929 instance, but a full year and 7 months short of the 2000 instance.

            What’s notable here is that by the time the bubbles that ended in 1929 and 2000 reached a duration similar to the present, they were already experiencing a significant increase in volatility and the frequency of corrections. From a time-perspective, for example, 7 years and 10 months into the bull market that began in October 1990, it was August 1998, about the point that the S&P 500 took a nearly 20% dive. By July 1999, the S&P 500 had eclipsed its mid-1998 high, followed by a correction of over -12% during the next 13 weeks (taking the net gain from mid-1998 to just 5%). The S&P 500 then rallied again into December 1999, followed by a nearly -10% correction over the next 8 weeks. Immediately after the final market high in March 2000, the S&P 500 quickly gave up more than 11% in the following month, wiping out a year of gains, and the bear market had hardly even started.

            Likewise, by the time the bull market from the 1921 low extended into late-1928, the market became much more susceptible to corrections. Following a peak in November 1928, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly -13% in a month. The next peak in February 1929 was followed by a -8% correction over the following two weeks. A fresh high in May 1929 was followed by a -10% correction over the following four weeks. The final high in September 1929 was followed by an initial drop of nearly -15% over the next 6 weeks. Put simply, once the bull market was as mature as the present one has become, further market gains were not smooth. Nor were they ultimately durable.

            http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2017/01/09/the-economic-risk-of-ignoring-arithmetic

          • Spatial Memory

            Same link – same repertoire – as last time. As I posted last time as well: crashes (defined as 30% declines, technically do not – and never have- begin from “all time high”/ inflection point. A basic education on candlestick analysis – the most time tested technical analysis method, more specifically ichimoku cloud or ichimoku kinko hyo – one look! Combined with simple Dow theory and the calendar of events, even you may see that a pullback (defined as 3-6% decline) seems improbable, a 10% correction even less probable. You imminent crash (30%) seems laughable. From the present distribution odds of tail risk you predict about 300,000 to 1. Good luck. lol

          • socalbeachdude

            What utter nonsense.

          • Spatial Memory

            Markets have proven your guesswork to be utter nonsense years ago. Sorry for your continued losses while so many have benefited and thrived from incredible capital market advances – while you’ve ranted of imminent collapses and disasters each incremental advance.

          • socalbeachdude

            Irrationally exuberant markets NEVER LAST and always return to (and often well below) rational market valuations which is precisely where the US and global stock markets are rapidly headed.

          • K2

            No human beings ever lasts forever.

            So should we all kill ourselves? because we are going to die anyway.

            What do you want people here to do? What is the point of your posts?

          • socalbeachdude

            Huh? What I’d like you to do is use some RATIONALITY and COMMON SENSE.

          • K2

            I want to say the same thing to you.

          • Spatial Memory

            Of course such basic, efficient, time tested analytical methods are continuously discounted by unhedged unhinged bears since djia 10k range. Nonetheless thank you again for the excellent capital markets comedy. :)

          • socalbeachdude

            Gamblers nearly always lose 100%!

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude
    • Special Little Snowflake

      A big tax cut for the rich I’m sure.

      • socalbeachdude

        The so-called “poor” don’t pay any federal income taxes and that amounts to nearly 50% of Americans currently not paying federal income taxes at all.

  • retired22

    there won’t be any Civil Wars!
    The left has no muscle left,..how are they going to attack,…with brigades of wimps & nerds in business suits going over the top,guns firing,for the cause?….Never Happen!

    All they have so far is the media’s ‘Fake news’ & George Soros rent a mob! This garbage will soon come to an end when some of these rioters get lengthy sentences in the prison system,…the rest will disappear when long term sentences are handed out to their fellows!
    The present administration has the Military & Law Enforcement on it’s side.It also has the support of America’s gun owners who won’t stand for any nonsense from the left!
    All the left can do is rant & rave & make a lot of noise!

    • retired22

      The fact is,the Trump Administration may be planning on a big financial correction.Naturally Trump can’t say so!
      Trumps administration can steal a move from the Left & ‘not allow a good crisis go to waste’
      He could do an FDR in reverse.
      Roosevelt took emergency powers & blamed the emergency on Hoover.Trump can speed up his program by taking emergency powers & rightfully blaming Obama & the Democrats for the financial emergency!

    • JC Teecher

      I wish you were correct, but sadly you haven’t read and researched enough, or you would not be saying such things.

      The left has the backing of more than Soros. They have the 100 wealthiest and most sinister sum beaches in the world at their disposal. These are the evil that took out Brietbart, his Dr. that was going to do the autopsy, and for good measure his wife as well.
      They have all the $$ and the workings of Satan at their disposal.

      The only way to defeat and be protected from them is to have the protections provided by the Highest Power, that created them in the beginning. The Consuming Fire that can and will snuff them out at the twinkle of an eye.

  • socalbeachdude

    Federal Debt in FY 2016 Jumped $1.4 Trillion, or $12,036 Per Household

    In fiscal 2016, which ended on September 30, 2016, the federal debt increased $1,422,827,047,452.46, according to data released today by the U.S. Treasury.

    At the close of business on Sept. 30, 2015, the last day of fiscal 2015, the federal debt was $18,150,617,666,484.33, according to the Treasury. By the close of business on Sept. 30, 2016, the last day of fiscal 2016, it had climbed to $19,573,444,713,936.79.

    According to the Census Bureau’s latest estimate, there were 118,215,000 households in the United States as of June. That means that the one-year increase in the federal debt of $1,422,827,047,452.46 in fiscal 2016 equaled about $12,036 per household.

    The total federal debt of $19,573,444,713,936.79 now equals about $165,575 per household.

    http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/federal-debt-fy-2016-jumped-142282704745246

  • Lori Takano

    There was a whole lot of optimism in the mid-to-late 1920s too. They didn’t call it the ROARING TWENTIES for no reason. :-(

    • socalbeachdude

      100% correct. Just like now, but now is far worse.

  • Jack Frost

    When or why anything happens is of no importance. Trump could unveil a machine which causes gold coins to rain from the sky in droves. Conservatives would fret it will drive inflation unless they are reelected while liberals will claim Obama originated the idea and concept so social spending could continue unabated.

  • J.j. Cintia

    Gee if there is a massive Recession, you might not even notice. That Depression that hit in 2007 will probably not let another downturn even be noticed. Sure there will be more closures and all, but who cares? Even if the media starts reporting it, it shouldn’t surprise anyone. Those “Summers of Recovery” didn’t make anyone believe it. Trying to get people to ignore their own eyes is too hard for these media liars. Maybe they’ll have a stock market crash. Who cares? People have found they can’t get their money out of 401(k)s anyway. That “plan” is even worse than Social Security. Your portfolio may as well be invested in vaporware and dot com bubbles. You’ll never get it out anyway. If the stock market tanks they can blame Trump, but there hasn’t been any value in the markets for awhile. Big chip fake blue stocks like Google, Facebook and Apple are over 100 times over the value of assets and earnings. That’s not just over-valued, that’s delusional.

    • socalbeachdude

      Absolutely correct.

    • Spatial Memory

      Delusional accurately describes that comment. LOL

  • USA Slave

    None of this matters. We’ve been a failed state for awhile now. The corporate oligarch will protect itself just like power always protects itself. And no matter how many people are ground to dust, as long as power survives, power will say “good”

    • socalbeachdude

      The “corporate oligarch” will be hurt the worst and suffer the most in the coming major crashes.

  • Nick Reynolds

    WOW I have no political affiliation, but do use common sense and critical thinking. Some of the people making comments actually think that 45 is working for the people. One word to describe those that are buying into the narcissistic, ego-centric, thin skinned, despot wannabe…….delusional

    • jox

      Yeah, but you don’t have political affiliation 😉

  • socalbeachdude

    The Misleading Comfort of Calm – Doug Wakefield

    Without trillions added to global debt levels and speed of light computer trading programs that close their day at neutral, the image of “never decline” stocks would have cracked long ago.

    The problem with depending on a central bankers’ assisted bubble, is that it defies the laws of science, the history of bubbles, and human behavior. We expect this image of “calm and controlled” to go on without interruption. Yet this idea is irrational when considering the most complex system in our world.

    Stock markets have rewarded complacency since early 2016. Ignoring headlines on rising risk, debt levels, rates, and slowing growth has been seen as “wise”.

    Yet the fingers of instability in this mammoth financial sandpile grow longer and more in number with each passing all time high headline.

    The lessons of previous bubbles will come home to roost again unless history has no value, and the laws of science are altered.

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/43658/the-misleading-comfort-of-calm

    • Spatial Memory

      Current avant-garde science and financial engineering has created the most efficient forward looking pricing mechanism – capital markets ever. With zero education in such sciences combined with zero understanding of the effects of: calendar of events, effects of weekly options, and zero comprehension of velocity of money, reverse repo effects, global carry trades, bulge bracket leverage, float weighted indices,etc. ,etc. Your legacy guesswork and notions juxtaposed to such avant garde markets and predictions of its imminent doom have provided many great laughs over the years while key benchmarks skyrocketed!

      • socalbeachdude

        You haven’t got the slightest bit of a clue what you are babbling on about and you are totally ignoring the economic facts and fundamentals.

        The only way it is “different this time” is that the entire mess is VASTLY WORSE AND MORE PRONE TO COLLAPSE than it has ever been.

        • Spatial Memory

          Neither macro nor microeconomic indicators confirm your ridiculous predictions and certainly beyond doubt capital markets confirmed by any technical analysis methodology rejected those hunches years ago.

          • socalbeachdude

            What utter nonsense.

            BlackRock’s Larry Fink sees ‘dark shadows’ in markets

            High consumer confidence and stock prices ‘horrifying’

            One chart that Fink calls “horrifying” is the climb of consumer confidence along with the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.07% reasoning that the time to buy stocks was when both the S&P 500 and consumer confidence were at lows, like in 2009. Now with both at highs, investors are saying, “Maybe you should be selling now,” he said.

            “I believe we’re in the midst of a slowdown as we speak, because of all the uncertainty,” he said.

            Additionally, if the promise of President Donald Trump’s pro-business policies get delayed — say, if it takes Congress a full year to get anything pushed through — then markets are ahead of themselves, Fink said.

            http://www.marketwatch.com/story/blackrocks-larry-fink-sees-dark-shadows-in-markets-2017-02-08

  • socalbeachdude

    As Trump hustles to nail down a tax overhaul, he faces the biggest federal debt surge since Truman

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/09/trump-faces-biggest-federal-debt-surge-since-truman.html

  • socalbeachdude

    The Crash Will Be Violent – David Stockman

    It is almost impossible to overstate the level of unhinged mania in the stock market, but still the robo-machines and knucklehead day traders just can’t seem to let go.

    They are essentially 12-year-olds on a bicycle defiantly screaming, look ma — no hands and a blindfold, too!

    Worse still, these daredevils have been indulged by the Fed and other central banks so long that they surely have come to believe flying blind is completely safe. After all, we can count at least 60 “dips” since March 2009 that resolved to the upside over and again.

    Altogether the S&P 500 now stands at 3.4X its post-crisis low, having generated an 18% annual return (including dividends) for nearly eight years running.

    To be sure, in an honest free market that very fact would be a flashing red light, warning that exceptionally high gains over an extended period necessitate a regression to the mean in the period ahead.

    But we have a central bank medicated market, not a free or honest one, so at the end of the day fundamentals don’t count. Instead, on the margin the stock market is driven by momentum, central bank liquidity and trader presumption that it will never be withdrawn.

    https://dailyreckoning.com/crash-will-violent/

    • Spatial Memory

      Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.” – Albert Einstein

      • socalbeachdude

        Fools and gamblers ignoring the fundamentals have always been slammed into the pavement by market crashes which they could easily avoided had they paid any attention to the actual facts.

        • Spatial Memory

          Even a gambler with a basic understanding of the Kelly Criterion application of probability theory or intertemporal portfolio decisions recognizes your lack of any knowledge nor education regarding banking and finance, economics and markets in general. The only slammed to the pavement has been your misplaced aversive salience issues.

          • socalbeachdude

            ROTHFLMAO!!!

  • socalbeachdude

    Junk Bonds may slam into $1 trillion wall as maturities hit record

    A record $1 trillion of junk debt will mature by 2021, leaving high-risk companies to hunt for new cash at a time when markets are likely to be less welcoming, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

    Speculative-grade companies have $1.06 trillion of debt maturing between 2017 and 2021, with the bulk of it, $933 billion, coming due after 2019, Moody’s said Wednesday in a report. New issuance is likely to rise in the second half of this year to start addressing those maturities, analysts led by Tiina Siilaberg wrote.

    Debt markets aren’t prepared to absorb the maturities, according to Moody’s. Demand for collateralized loan obligations, which bundle leveraged corporate loans into securities, has fallen from its 2014 peak, and credit ratings for both bank loans and high-yield bonds have deteriorated, according to the report.

    “If liquidity dries up, the default rate will be significantly higher than the last time around,” Siilaberg said in an interview. “Companies have more debt to deal with, and we’ve seen a lot of smaller companies take on substantial amounts of debt in a low-rate environment.”

    http://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2017/02/08/junk-may-slam-into-1-trillion-wall-as-maturities-go-to-record

  • socalbeachdude

    Trumpflation Is Running Out of Gas

    Markets finally got a reminder that Donald Trump hasn’t forgotten his promise to boost spending and slash taxes, but that may not be enough to revitalize one of the more resilient reflation trades his win inspired.

    In recent days, BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Larry Fink and economists at Goldman Sachs have raised doubts on how fast any pro-growth policies like infrastructure spending, tax cuts and deregulation might materialize — or whether the net effect of the policies will even be beneficial.

    While U.S. stocks rose to records, the dollar jumped and Treasuries fell after Trump said Thursday that details on tax cuts would emerge within weeks, market-based measures of inflation expectations — derived from the difference between yields on Treasuries and their inflation-protected brethren — are trending lower.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-09/reflation-in-doubt-as-bastion-of-trump-trade-starts-to-falter

  • socalbeachdude

    FEDERAL DEBT CEILING HOLIDAY ENDS MARCH 15, 2017

    There is not a chance that a significant infrastructure stimulus will pass, either. That’s because a meaningful slice of GOP conservatives in both houses are properly against it and Trump has no chance of forming a coalition with Democrat spenders.

    That’s because co-President Steve Bannon does not understand that the White House’s bombastic anti-immigrant campaign is toxic on the Democratic side of the aisle. After all, the Democrats have become the “sanctuary party” of contemporary politics, meaning the two sides will not be joining hands any time soon.

    What will be coming soon, however, is the mother of all debt ceiling crises — an eruption of beltway dysfunction that will finally demolish the notion that Trump is good for the economy and the stock market.

    The debt ceiling holiday ends on March 15, and it appears that the rudderless Treasury Department — Mnuchin has not yet been approved as Treasury Secretary and there are no Trump deputies, either — may be engaging in a bit of sabotage. That is, the cash balance has run down from a peak of about $450 billion to just $304 billion as of last Friday.

    Unless reversed soon, this means that the Treasury will run out of cash by perhaps July 4th rather than Labor Day. After that, all hell will break loose.

    https://dailyreckoning.com/crash-will-violent/

  • Bob

    Michael:

    Alaska railroad is laying off people again. They said:

    Correspondingly, the railroad has watched the freight volumes it hauls —
    its primary business line — decline by 44 percent since 2008.

    Let us stop using the word “recession” and call it a “depression”.

    • Spatial Memory

      Alaska railroad- a trusted, time tested economic barometer- since the demise of the stage coach indicator. Not.

      • moovova

        Women, children and buggy whip manufacturers hit the hardest.

  • socalbeachdude

    Bubbles, Money and the VIX – Doug Noland

    When I initially titled my weekly writings the “Credit Bubble Bulletin” back in 1999, I anticipated that “Bubble” would remain in the title only on a short-term basis. And indeed, I thought the Bubble had burst in 2000/2001 and then again in 2008. But in both instances Credit Dynamics and resurgent monetary inflation made it clear to me that a more powerful Bubble had reemerged. Whether one prefers to date the beginning of the Great Credit Bubble 1992, 1987 or even 1971, it’s been inflating now for quite a long time. Too be sure, the expansion of government Credit over the past eight years puts mortgage Credit and other excesses to shame. I would argue that price distortions and risk misperceptions similarly overshadow those from the mortgage finance Bubble period.

    Of course, the vast majority have become convinced that the boom is sustainable. Indeed, analysis these days is eerily reminiscent of “permanent plateau” jubilation from 1929. The bullish perspective sees an improving global economy and a powerful pro-growth agenda unfolding in the U.S. Worries about debt, China and such matters have turned stale.

    Today’s Bubble is global, and it resides at the very heart of contemporary electronic “money.” This means, as we’ve already witnessed, that it can inflate almost indefinitely, at the discretion of a small group of central bankers and so long as their Credit is readily accepted. It’s unique in financial history, the consequence of the runaway global experiment in unfettered “money” and Credit. Even after tens of Trillions of issuance, the demand for central bank Credit (“money”) and (money-like) government debt is today as insatiable as ever. The downside is that this prolonged Bubble has inflated most assets across the globe. It has evolved to be deeply systemic on a global basis, with unprecedented distortions in risk perceptions and asset prices more generally.

    http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2017/02/weekly-commentary-bubbles-money-and-vix.html

  • socalbeachdude

    3 Reasons Why the New Dow Record Is No Reason to Celebrate

    Record highs are giving Wall Street an excuse to pop open the champagne, but economists say we should curb our enthusiasm.

    On January 25, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke 20,000 points for the first time in history. Traders are celebrating and financial media is buzzing with speculation that 25,000 could be just around the corner. But history and fundamental research say otherwise.

    Here’s why…

    1. Stocks are painfully overvalued

    2. Previous Dow milestones preceded major drops

    3. This rally has been fueled by emotion instead of reason

    http://www.birchgold.com/news/3-reasons-to-not-celebrate-dow-record

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    Fed’s Fischer Forecasts That Trump Admin’s Fiscal Policy Will Have No Effect At All

    Stanley Fischer is one of the finer central bankers we have around the world–he’s one of the very few to have worked in more than once central bank in a senior position for example. And he’s been making known his views on the coming policies of the Trump Administration. One implication of which is that the fiscal policies that will be followed–specifically, the effects of taxation and spending upon aggregate demand–will have really no effect at all.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/02/11/feds-fischer-forecasts-that-trump-admins-fiscal-policy-will-have-no-effect-at-all/#2b3bec22f6e4

  • Richard Hennessy

    After 8 years of Obama economics, a recession would be expected rather than surprising.

  • socalbeachdude

    Bank for International Settlements warns of looming debt bubble – Forbes

    Guess who is going broke again? Greece!

    So you thought the world was deleveraging after the housing and derivatives bubble of 2008, hey?

    Well…fooled you!

    Global debt-to-GDP is now at a comfortable record high and the Bank for International Settlements, aka the central bank of central banks, noted on Friday that over the last 16 years, debts of governments, households and corporations has gone up…everywhere.

    In the U.S., debt is up 63%. The Eurozone, Japan, U.K., Canada and Australia average around 52%. And emerging markets, led by China, leverage is up 85%. In some important emerging economies like Brazil major cities are on the verge of bankruptcy. Rio is CCC credit thanks to mismanagement of a deep sea oil bonanza and over spending on the FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Olympics.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/02/10/bank-for-international-settlements-warns-of-looming-debt-bubble/#452c3b642d5a

  • socalbeachdude
  • Susie Q

    Michael….the general economy has been in nothing but a recession for the last two decades, commencing in earnest with the implementation of NAFTA and GATT, and then with the implementation of Obamacare and the 30-hr work wk that commenced consequent of it…well, there you go. It has gotten progressively worse for average Americans who’ve seen their jobs disappear and their Middle Class position along with them and it will not improve until the bastards that are responsible for this are brought to justice and hung.

    The only people who’ve benefited over the past 20 years are the Globalist Elitist bastards and the Wall Street set. The rest of us are going under, or are already homeless.

    And, of course, that was the Globalist Elites’ intention and design.

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