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The U.S. Government Will Borrow Close To 4 Trillion Dollars This Year

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DebtWhen you add maturing debt to the new debt that the federal government is accumulating, the total is quite eye catching.  You see, the truth is that the U.S. government must not only borrow enough money to fund government spending for this year, it must also “roll over” existing debt that has reached maturity.  Of course the government never actually pays any of that debt off.  Instead, it essentially takes out new debts to cover the old ones.  So the U.S. government is actually borrowing far more money each year than most Americans realize.  For fiscal year 2013, the U.S. budget deficit will be about $845 billion, but on top of that the government will also have to borrow about 3 trillion dollars to pay off old debt that is maturing.  Overall, the U.S. government will borrow close to 4 trillion dollars this year, and that number will likely be even higher next year.  That is not going to cause a crisis as long as interest rates stay super low, but if interest rates begin to rise substantially, the game will change dramatically.

When the government borrows money, it has to pay it back someday.  Back in the old days, the federal government used to issue lots of debt that would not mature for a very long time.  But in recent years things have been very different

In order to fund the government, the Treasury Department periodically auctions Treasury securities with various maturities ranging from 30-day Treasury bills to 30-year Treasury bonds, with 2-3-5-7-year and 10-year Treasury notes in between. It used to be that the bulk of Treasury borrowing was done in the longer-term instruments with maturities of at least 10 years.

In more recent years, however, this trend has shifted more toward shorter-term Treasury securities. There are pros and cons to both strategies. Generally speaking, the shorter maturities are considered more risky since short-term interest rates can vary frequently. Shorter-term maturities obviously have to be rolled over much more often. That raises the risk that there might not be enough buyers when the government needs them.

At this point, the average maturity of outstanding government debt is only 65 months, and only about 10 percent of all Treasury debt matures outside of a decade.

So what does that mean?

It means that the federal government must constantly roll over massive amounts of debt.  Once again, this is not too much of a problem as long as interest rates stay super low, but as John Cochrane pointed out, if rates start rising back to “normal” levels things could get quite hairy very quickly…

Here’s the nightmare scenario: Suppose that four years from now, interest rates rise 5 percent, i.e. back to normal, and the US has $20 trillion outstanding. Interest costs alone will rise $1 trillion (5% of $20 trillion) – doubling already unsustainable deficits! This is what happened to Italy, Spain, and Portugal. Don’t think it can’t happen to us. It’s even more likely, because fear of inflation – which did not hit them, since they are on the Euro – can hit us.

Sadly, those running things appears to be quite clueless.  For example, retiring U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann recently asked Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke why the national debt has remained frozen in place for 56 straight days even though we have been borrowing lots of money.  Bernanke seemed to have no idea how to answer that question

As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday, Bachmann asked how there could be no increase reported in the total debt when the government is racking up about $4 billion a day in new debt.

“After nearly 10 years as the head of the Federal Reserve, Chairman Bernanke could not answer my question today in Financial Services Committee,” Bachmann told WND.

She wondered if there’s a political motive.

“I asked whether the Treasury Department was cooking the federal government’s books as it was reported that the Feds debt balance sheet remained at $16,699,396,000,000 for 56 days straight, presumably so the Treasury Department wouldn’t officially register that once again the Congress had exceeded its legal borrowing limits.”

For the moment, the federal government is able to recklessly borrow and spend money and investors are rewarding this behavior with super low interest rates.

Unfortunately, this state of affairs is completely and totally unsustainable.  At some point global financial markets will begin to behave rationally, and when that happens it is going to mean a tremendous amount of pain for the United States.

Over the past decade, the U.S. government has added more than 11 trillion dollars to the national debt at a time when the U.S. economy has been steadily declining.  Anyone that thinks that we can continue to pile up more debt like this indefinitely does not know what they are talking about.

The following are some more statistics about the U.S. national debt for you to consider…

-Back in 1980, the U.S. national debt was less than one trillion dollars.  Today, it is rapidly approaching 17 trillion dollars.

During Obama’s first term, the federal government accumulated more debt than it did under the first 42 U.S presidents combined.

The U.S. national debt is now more than 23 times larger than it was when Jimmy Carter became president.

If you started paying off just the new debt that the U.S. has accumulated during the Obama administration at the rate of one dollar per second, it would take more than 184,000 years to pay it off.

If right this moment you went out and started spending one dollar every single second, it would take you more than 31,000 years to spend one trillion dollars.

If you were alive when Jesus Christ was born and you spent one million dollars every single day since that point, you still would not have spent one trillion dollars by now.

Some suggest that “taxing the rich” is the answer.  Well, if Bill Gates gave every single penny of his entire fortune to the U.S. government, it would only cover the U.S. budget deficit for 15 days.

If the federal government used GAAP accounting standards like publicly traded corporations do, the real federal budget deficit for 2011 would have been 5 trillion dollars instead of 1.3 trillion dollars.

The United States already has more government debt per capita than Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland or Spain does.

At this point, the United States government is responsible for more than a third of all the government debt in the entire world.

The amount of U.S. government debt held by foreigners is about 5 times larger than it was just a decade ago.

The U.S. national debt is now more than 37 times larger than it was when Richard Nixon took us off the gold standard.

The U.S. national debt is now more than 5000 times larger than it was when the Federal Reserve was first created.

Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff is warning that the U.S. government is facing a gigantic tsunami of unfunded liabilities in the coming years that we are counting on our children and our grandchildren to pay.  Kotlikoff speaks of a “fiscal gap” which he defines as “the present value difference between projected future spending and revenue”.  His calculations have led him to the conclusion that the federal government is facing a fiscal gap of 222 trillion dollars in the years ahead.

For the moment everything is fine because interest rates are incredibly low and the mockers in the “deficits don’t matter” fan club are having a field day.

But what is going to happen when interest rates return to rational levels?

How will the U.S. government be able to borrow the trillions of dollars that it needs to borrow every single year?

That is why it is so important to watch interest rates.  When they start skyrocketing, big trouble is ahead.

  • Rodster

    It’s over for Detroit. They just filed for Banckruptcy !

    • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

      That is not good news.


      • markthetruth

        Interesting article to read as we have a similar issue and we can develop this ripple effect.


        Portugal’s birthrate plummeting, a sign of more economic trouble ahead

        the end…

        • squashpants

          Less people to tax. Bad news indeed.

    • Rodster

      From CNN regarding Detroit:

      “Investors say the bankruptcy will make it more difficult for cities and towns everywhere to raise the money they need to build bridges, schools and other infrastructure. It will also hurt municipal bonds held by individual investors. There are more than $1 trillion worth of bonds at risk, said Peter Hayes, head of municipal bonds at BlackRock. He said there will be a ripple effect nationwide.”

      ….And there you have it. A ripple effect nationwide. This is just the beginning as you’ll see other municipalities who are in trouble do the same.

      • hangemhigh77

        All those guys everyone sees standing around “fixing” roads, you know 25 guys with a shovel standing there watching one guy fix a pothole, those guys? Well they all knock down 100k a year, they all have huge pensions and med benefits. When they get back from work for the day they get in their Mercedes and drive to their 5k square foot home and fly off to party in Spain with the wife for the weekend. THAT’s ONE of the reasons why this whole country is going down..The guy digging ditches now makes twice what the average private sector makes. And now we need more cops to keep us “safe”. Safe from who? The terrorists? First I haven’t seen a terrorist and if I do I’ll take care of it I don’t need a stupid ticket writing cop to “save” me. And second, most American’s are being robbed and brutalized by all the cops that are keeping us “safe”. Get RID of the cops and arm every citizen. We don’t need no stinking cops.

        • vikings4123

          I am amazed every single commute at just how many emergency vehicles (fire, police, ambulance, hero) show up at a fender-bender on the downtown highway. They are stumbling over each other there are so many…I mean 7-10 per incident.

    • markthetruth

      China will buy it cheap.

      the end…

    • Mondobeyondo

      [insert Stuka dive bomber sound effect here]

    • squashpants

      If Detroit were a corporation, they would downsize, reorganize, and live on. What does a city do?

  • Rodster

    Moody’s upgrades US debt to Stable, keeps Aaa rating. What a laugh !

    “Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday stood down from the possibility of cutting the U.S. sovereign credit rating in coming months, affirming the country’s top Aaa rating and noting the resilience of the economy.

    Moody’s raised the U.S. sovereign outlook to “stable” from “negative,” noting that the federal government’s debt trajectory is on track with criteria previously laid out by the rating agency.”

    • Tim

      Hi Rodster,

      This is purely a political move on the part of Moody’s, in my opinion. It is meaningless.

      When the U.S. government’s credit rating was downgraded in August 2011, someone at Standard & Poor’s lost their job. That’s just good old politics in the nation’s capital.

    • ArigatouGozaimas

      Credit Ratings for U.S. government debt are meaningless. The credit agencies tread lightly so as not to arouse the wrath of a powerful bureaucracy.

  • Tim

    The answer to Michele Bachmann’s question is that the federal government is in a debt issuance suspension period. It began on May 2nd and is expected to last until August 2nd. During a debt issuance suspension period the federal government suspends investments to certain federal government “trust funds” to free up additional borrowing authority. It’s basically a bunch of accounting gimmicks the Bureau of the Public Debt uses to avoid breaching the debt limit. The Treasury has still been holding regular debt auctions, but much of the new debt issuance is to roll over maturing debt.

    I’ve read recently that the federal government has other means to keep from exceeding the statutory debt limit even after the current debt issuance suspension period ends. I’ve read that they may be able to go until the end of October before the statutory debt limit must be raised.

    In my opinion, the possibility of another downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating is a bigger threat to the economy than rising interest rates.

    • Gay Veteran

      The feds are raiding the TSA accounts (Thrift Savings Accounts, sort of a 401k for fed employees) and leaving behind IOUs. They’ve done it before.

      • Tim

        Technically, they’re not raiding the G-Fund as there isn’t anything of value in the fund. All federal trust funds, including the G-fund, contain debt instruments or promises to pay.

        • Gay Veteran

          TSA also has stock funds, including international stock funds

  • K

    In Detroit during negotiations they offered retirees slightly less than 10 cents on the dollar. As well as equally insulting amounts to other creditors. It really could not have gone any other way, than bankruptcy. Everyone will now hope, they will do a little better with a Judge.

    • Rodster

      And the Banksters aka BoA got 75c on the dollar.

  • mattjerch

    always great articles.
    ” Suppose it four years from now, interest rates rise 5 percent”
    That’s the problem.just collapse already for fresh start! but they will be able to do this printing for a long time,,,at least it seems that way!

    • Mondobeyondo

      7 percent interest rate by July 2014. That’s being conservative.

      (hey, what’s with this crystal ball? Insert four AAA batteries here, it says. Ugh.)

  • George

    -If you were alive when Jesus Christ was born and you spent one million dollars every single day since that point, you still would not have spent one trillion dollars by now.

    I really like this illustration.

  • Shadowking

    It’s a shame nobody cares about bankruptcies or trillion dollar debts. I post stuff like this on Facebook with no replies not even a like! Everyone is living out their lives working tirelessly because that’s what everyone else is doing. It’s hopeless.

    • Mondobeyondo

      “It’s not hopeless. We’re just lacking hope.”
      – Your friendly federal government official(s)

      • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

        Hello Mondo! Good to see you. I hope that things are going better for you these days.


    • markthetruth

      They will when it hits their Budget and then they can’t afford their Bills and Lifestyle !

      the end,,,

    • Nicholas

      Atleast you still have friends…I sometimes get people unfriending me or reporting my hyperlinks.

      Post a picture of a woman’s butt or her wearing a g-string thong on Facebook. You may have 100s of Likes and 1000s of comments.

    • jjalvarad

      You are not alone the same happens to my in my personal Page not even a like! So I started another FB @Conterbalancetoday. Let’s connect so we can chat about interesting subjects. and at least we can comment our post maybe some day people leaves the apathy aside, and hopefully is not late

      • jason

        I post relevant topical news all the time on my facebook. It turns out people really do read it, they usually open up the link, read the article, then go off and do something else without putting a “like”. If you put a picture of a cat or some food or whatever, literally the only thing to do is to click on “like”, as there is no real content other than a cute or funny picture.

        • jrreich

          Old thread I know, but just wanted to convey that I’ve had friends come up to me in person, or send private messages saying they agree with me but are afraid of what our other friends would think if they out themselves as an evil conservative.

    • Just keep pushing it in their face but try to relate it to their lives as much as possible…’if I made $20k a year, owed $50k, and ran a deficit of $4k per year…how long will I survive, especially when interest rates are going up?’…..if they can’t understand that well move on to someone with half a brain 😉


      I suspect FB keeps certain posts away from specific persons. I have noticed many of my posts go unseen or say the page is not available for my post. It is censored from most to see.

  • ArigatouGozaimas

    You can see the cracks sprouting every time Bernake attempts to put his finger in the dike. It is rather pitiful that the information pulled from the system can no longer be trusted. We’ve moved from distorted information to outright lies. Even the justice system is being transformed into a political tool. This is a very sick nation whose doctors treat the symptoms with medicine that makes the real internal problems worse.

    The above article is exactly the reason the Federal Reserve will not stop monetizing the dollar or hike interest rates. They can not risk making the Federal government insolvent. The economy, heavily dependent on bureaucratic management, can not sustain even a slow down of easy money. I think we’ve reach the point of no return, if the easy money stops then the system collapses now. If the the easy money continues eventually there is debasement and collapse of a different nature. I think they can keep it going for longer then we give them credit for, they just can’t stop now. I would speculate that there is monetization happening off the books as well.

    So how can they keep it going? Simple, they must keep selling more debt at a low interest rate? How do they do that?

    1. The Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve Can buy as much government debt as they please. They are essentially the main ingredient for keep the USbond stable. Anyone who reads this blog likely knows this. But there are other sources.

    2. International Buyers: They will still hold and buy, for a time. Ownership of U.S. debt gives international buyers a certain amount of leverage over U.S. policies.

    3. 401k: Basically workers are forced to buy U.S. junk bonds. An overwhelming majority of workers don’t adjust their 401ks or can’t do so. The money is left to the discretion of big banks. Older workers, who have the most money, systematically have the prime share of their retirement fund placed in treasuries.

    4. Normalcy Bias Investors: There are still suckers out there who do not read the fine print. Past performance does not ensure future results.

    Thus, the prime markets for U.S. debt

  • Mondobeyondo

    Detroit just filed for bankruptcy.

    It used to be said, that as Detroit goes, so goes the nation.


  • Mondobeyondo

    Oh yeah, interest rates. They are still rather low, and people, companies and cities are going bankrupt.

    What’s gonna happen when interest rates will inevitably rise? I’ll tell you what. You’re gonna break out that guitar and start playing those I’m So Broke I Can’t Pay Attention Blues.

  • Shmeggle Marxist

    when gary says tax the rich hard, he really means tax the bitch hard, and we the american people are the governments bitch. in some ways, it would be so much easier if the collapse occurred quickly instead of in slow motion but as we all know, we are not in control…………………..

  • MeMadMax

    It’s ok, all that money only exists as 0
    s and 1’s on the…. oops, where did it go?
    lol j/k

  • defaultplayer

    Lots of ifs in this game. What “if” interest rates don’t rise for 5 years? I mean, how many years can this go on before people get tired of hearing about economic collapse?

    • Tim

      The bottom line is that there is no way out of the situation the Fed is in. If they stop QE, the economy will collapse. If they continue QE, eventually there will be a loss of confidence in the currency. They will probably keep this game going for a few more years, but I’m not counting on it. I’m amazed that this grand experiment has lasted this long (42 years).

    • mattjerch

      exactly my thoughts. it does appears it can go on forever. And in 5 years Long Island Gym teachers will make 250K per year.
      The Long Island teacher salaries are a disgrace in this economy. maybe Long island will go bankrupt and start over

    • Mondobeyondo

      Interest rates can not stay this low forever. They WILL rise. Up to now, they’ve been held artificially low by Benny and the Feds. That won’t last.

      • squashpants

        Maybe so, but the question is when will the upward pressure be sufficient to override the artificial manipulations to keep them low?

    • markthetruth

      everything in life is a IF .

      the end…

      • Mondobeyondo

        Oh no… don’t make me recite that Rudyard Kipling poem “If”. Yikes!!

    • Mondobeyondo

      Forget the “if”. Interest rates are gonna rise. Hear me now and believe me later.

      You know the government creed: “Don’t reach for the sky, aim for the floor – you can’t go much lower than that”.

      I’ve been out of the loop so to speak. What are interest rates now, close to 2 percent? Not that it matters right now. Look for 7 percent rates by mid 2014.*

      *Hey you – the guy I sold the crystal ball to! There’s no money back guarantee on that thing. Just so ya know!

    • squashpants

      The day that people tire of hearing about economic collapse is the day it all collapses.

  • Real Prophets See The Present

    It’s amazing to me that no one hear seems to understand what is going on. The biggest clue is in the title. What does a nation that claims to be sovereign, need with barrowing? Wo are the money masters?

  • Habib Jamaroqui

    The only thing that will lead to revival is complete economic collapse. This will happen 9/2015

    • Shmeggle Marxist

      how did you arrive at that date?

      • Mondobeyondo

        He bought my crystal ball! 🙂

    • “V”

      Why September 2015?

  • Patrick

    Detroit filled for bankruptcy today. Also I have heard that other cities are thinking of doing the same thing now its looks like the dominoes are about to fall. Michael one question is the government going to try to bail out cities and states now like they have done with everything else? Does this speed up the collapse faster and I have heard rumors that the FEMA Camps are starting to get manned by more government officials. Seems like they are preparing for something now or know how really bad it is and not telling us.

    • “V”

      They continue to spin the “recession is over” “recovery is picking up” “hiring is picking up”. Its all propaganda and spin, unless a Republican is in the whitehouse then they will talk about it.

  • TtT Engine

    Yes, lefties live in a utopian fantasy world disconnected from reality. I guess the pot smoking keeps you there. Governor Jerry Brown lives in this fantasy world, i.e. that CA is in fiscal surplus. To us sober human beings living in the real world, California borrows millions upon millions of dollars from the federal government to pay their bills. California owes hundred of billions in unfunded long term pension obligations. It is highly inaccurate to state California is in surplus. That is like telling your children, we have food on the table tonight and left overs for the dog, so we are in surplus, but never mind we are 3 months behind on the mortgage. Christi Fidelis !

  • ??baffled

    Stupid question really…but, who exactly dos the government borrow these trillions from?

    • Joe Shmo

      Itself. It’s called “Monetizing the Debt”. And that is ugly, and usually (always so far in history) a precursor to the collapse of a society/currency. Good luck to all.

  • Nexusfast123

    It is inevitable that interest rates will rise. Analysts expect the ‘market’ to resume to ‘normal’ and pick up the slack when the Federal Reserve stops buying bond. Don’t think you can view this as a normal situation. The market will more than likely move to the ‘short term’ and the only thing of value will be cash and short term bonds. Who would want to hold bonds over the long term? The only way to encourage them to do so would be to raise interest rates. Thus the inevitable cycle of financial implosion will start as the cost of debt spirals out of control..

  • seth datta

    Didnt barack say debt was a sign of failure? And now we’re even more in the hole? Is he a hypocrite or a liar?

  • squashpants

    Could someone succinctly describe how the QE thing works — that is, how the Fed can simply print money out of thin air? If they are able to do this as much as they want to, then what is to stop them from doing this for as long as they want to in order to buy whatever debt the Federal government runs up? Really, I am looking for some understanding. Thanks!

    • Joe Shmo

      It only works because the USD is currently the world reserve currency. That means that all OIL is supposed to be bought and sold in USD. Energy is the lifeblood of the industrial world. Ben’s ability to print to infinity is limited by the rest of the world accepting that they MUST use the USD for oil. Once that stops, it OVER! And right now China and Russia (and others) are not using the USD to trade oil.

      • squashpants

        I understand that much, thank you, Joe. But let me take this a step further. Why, if/when the USD is no longer reserve currency, will the Fed no longer be able to print money as they are doing presently?

        • vikings4123

          Only to the extent they can find buyers. This is a complex subject with many layers. What the tipping point will be is hard to decipher. Wear me out mentally trying to figure that out. There are other tricks up the sleeve of politicians. Let’s say they require 401K owners to purchase a portion of their portfolios in U.S. treasury notes or bonds. If US economy is $15 trillion and 5% savings rate. That means about $750 billion in savings. If government says you must have 20% in U.S. obligations that takes $150 billion up. Not much out of $1 trillion but might be enough to satisfy foreign investment that we are not going to default AND keep interest rates low.

    • Stuckincalgary

      more money in supply the less demand there is for it. so you get inflation as the dollar is less valuable you will need more of them to buy stuff. Google inflation in Germany after ww2 or look at Vietnam. Germany attempted to print money to pay back its debt after the war and you needed a back pack to bring the money into the store to buy a loaf of bread. Or Vietnam where everyone is a millionaire but they are all starving.

      What gives money value is someone else wants it when there is lots around people want a lot more.

      • squashpants

        Thank you. Basically, we should expect inflation. And I realize that despite the 2% inflation the government is claiming, that anecdotal evidence is that it is more severe. Can we expect noticeably severe inflation should the dollar be abandoned as the reserve currency? As it is now, I don’t think that most people are aware of a remarkably high inflation rate. It is when the man on the street can register price inflation without doing much analysis, that inflation has become truly terrible. IMO.

        • Stuckincalgary

          Well in high school when we learned about inflation they said it takes 5-7 years for it to hit the average person. Example Clinton printed money in early 2000 after the tech bubble popped and by 2007 the Canadian dollar went from worth $0.70 to even and even past. I am not sure if that 5-7 year rule still applies but most of the countries in the world are all printing money so it might be hard to compare currencies but bush’s printing machines turned on about 7 years ago so if it’s still true on the 5-7 year rule we will find out soon.

  • Rufus T Firefly

    We may be bad off but everyone is worse. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is. King.

    Soon it will be time to use our highly skilled military to loot and plunder otherlands. That is the way of the world..lthe strong dominate the weak

    • Stuckincalgary

      How do you do that when oil is $1000 a barrel and no one will lend you the money. If you print more the price will climb. The US may supply enough oil for its demand now in a recession but one aircraft carrier burns a crap load of fuel just to pull out of the docks.

      • Flake

        All the Aircraft carriers are nuclear powered now…….

  • Anon00798

    They will never let the rates rise. Zero interest forever Bitchez!!

  • Bosnian Serb

    Low interest rates are just huge
    tax on savers like me. In addition to not having any interest income, my family
    and I pay 30% more for food and other basic needs than we would have 3 years
    ago. Only way to keep up with inflation is to cut back on staff we buy.
    Everywhere I go people beg me for money. Those begging for money are not
    homeless drug addicts but average people like me. They stop me at gas station, grocery
    store, beach, drug store, and any restaurant I would go to. About 4 months ago
    I saw this man with his family holding the sign that says how they need a job. My
    2 friends (that had jobs) moved back to Bosnia realizing that they life
    standard would not be much worse than the one they had here. Considering that
    Bosnia is poorest country in Europe…..

  • DC

    Let us not forget, that the debt that is STILL accumulating from the WARs and Medicare Part D still has no revenue stream of its own…. There is nothing paying for these $500 Billion a year expenses.

    Being its all just numbers in a computer, and someone having to have control of that large amount of money somewhere (like the new Billionaires and Millionaires this year, last year and the year before) WHO ARE WE in DEBT to really…. NO ONE that money is no longer in circulation, that is what happens when the wealthy get a hold of money, they HOARD it in bank account over seas so as to not be taxed on it and keep it for themselves…..

  • Harsh Mellow

    Perhaps potus should worry more about the bankruptcy of an iconic city than slamming the justice system in Florida.

    • Orange Jean

      Or planning his next vacation already… just got back from that $100 million dollar vaca to Africa, and I understand they are planning the next one to Nantucket already,


    your are so right shadowking. its funny how the governemt can just spend and spend. I picture the government there to help the people. its was meant to be a group of people that would help society progress. but instead lately all I see is a debt limit that is almost to the point where the us taxes cant even pay off the intrest alone. if the interest goes up we will start defaulting our debts. Then ask your self who will own the usa. The “land of the free”


    What if we did not fight every war? What if we helped eachother instead of killing eachother? What if your community was your family? what if what if what if?
    What if we could be more open to eacthoer and respect our diffrences? What if I beilieved in santan and your believed in god but I had a respect for your beliefs and we still treated another with love. what if what if what if.

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