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Trumphoria: Americans Are More Optimistic About The Economy Than They Have Been Since Obama’s Win In 2008

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donald-trump-accepts-the-nomination-public-domainOptimism about the future of the U.S. economy has not been this strong since Barack Obama’s first presidential election victory in 2008. Donald Trump promised us an economic resurgence, and what is not to like so far? As I discussed earlier this week, stocks are soaring, businesses are already announcing that they are bringing jobs back to the United States, and the U.S. dollar has been lifted to levels that we haven’t seen in many years. Many are referring to this post-election surge as “Trumphoria”, and I think that is quite appropriate. Personally, I couldn’t imagine financial markets behaving this way if Hillary Clinton had won the election. Right now tens of millions of Americans are feeling deeply optimistic about the future for the first time in a very long time, and this is clearly reflected in the results of the most recent CNBC All-America Economic Survey

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey for the fourth quarter found that the percentage of Americans who believe the economy will get better in the next year jumped an unprecedented 17 points to 42 percent, compared with before the election. It’s the highest level since President Barack Obama was first elected in 2008.

The surge was powered by Republicans and independents reversing their outlooks. Republicans swung from deeply pessimistic, with just 15 percent saying the economy would improve in the next year, to strongly optimistic, with 74 percent believing in an economic upswing. Optimism among independents doubled but it fell by more than half for Democrats. Just 16 percent think the economy will improve.

It is funny how our political perspectives so greatly shape our view of the future. Because Trump won, Democrats now have an extremely dismal opinion of where the economy is heading, while Republicans suddenly believe that happy days are here again.

Of course the truth is that the president has far less power to influence the economy than the Federal Reserve does, and so most Americans greatly overestimate what a president can do to alter our economic trajectory.

But for now most Americans (excluding Democrats) are feeling really good about where things are headed. In fact, we just learned that the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey has soared to the highest level that we have seen since 2005.

And of course the financial markets continued to roll onward and upward on Friday. The Dow was up another 142 points, and it is now less than 250 points away from the magic number of 20,000.

I never thought that we would actually get to 20,000, but thanks to “Trumphoria” we may actually get there before the wheels start coming off.

This post-election run has really been unprecedented. The following comes from CNBC

All major indexes have been hitting record highs since the election. In fact, the Dow has notched 14 record closes since then and gains in 20 of the past 24 sessions.

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq also did something they haven’t done in more than five years: all three rose each day of this trading week. The last time all three rose every day during the same trading week was September 2011.

Wouldn’t it be great if every month during Trump’s presidency was like the last 30 days?

Trump promised that we would start winning so much that we would actually start getting tired of winning, and so far we are off to a tremendous start.

As I discussed yesterday, some of the biggest winners from “Trumphoria” have been the big banks

The shares of Wells Fargo, the most hated bank in America these days, soared 28% over the past 30 days, Citigroup 25%, JP Morgan 26%, Goldman Sachs, which is successfully placing its people inside the Trump administration, 37%.

But is this momentum in the financial markets sustainable?

Of course not.

There are signs of emerging economic trouble all around us. For instance, Sears just announced that it lost 748 million dollars last quarter and that it plans to liquidate even more stores.

How in the world do you lose three-quarters of a billion dollars in a single quarter? If you had employees in every store literally flushing dollar bills down the toilet all day I don’t think you could lose money that quickly.

And the moment that Trump takes office, he may immediately be faced with a major financial crisis in Europe which has been sparked by the meltdown of large Italian banks. The following comes from a Forbes article entitled “Italy’s Banking Crisis Is Nearly Upon Us“…

There is a high degree of probability (approaching 90%, I’d say) that Italy will experience a severe banking crisis in the next few quarters. Perhaps they can stave off the problem for a year, but something will have to be done about the banks.

Unfortunately, it looks like things are about to get very real for Italian banking giant Monte dei Paschi di Siena. According to Reuters, the European Central Bank has turned down their request for more time to raise needed capital…

The European Central Bank has rejected a request by Italy’s Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.MI) for more time to raise capital, a source said on Friday, a decision that piles pressure on the Rome government to bail out the lender.

Italy’s third-largest bank, and the world’s oldest, had asked for a three-week extension until January 20 to try to wrap up a privately funded, 5 billion euro ($5.3 billion) rescue plan in the face of fresh political uncertainty.

The ECB’s supervisory board turned down the request at a meeting on Friday on the grounds that a delay would be of little use and that it was time for Rome to step in, the source said.

But most Americans have no idea what is unfolding in Europe right now.

As Americans, we tend to be largely oblivious to what is going on in the rest of the world, and at this moment “Trumphoria” has gripped our nation.

It is certainly not wrong to celebrate the fact that we are getting Donald Trump instead of Hillary Clinton, but let us also not lose sight of the fact that we are likely to be facing some tremendous challenges very early in 2017.

  • Mike Smithy

    Although Trump’s policies are pro growth, I fear that it is too little, too late. This latest Trump Rally on Wall Street is designed to enrich the bankster class X-Mas bonus. Look for stawk valuations to contract significantly after New Year.

  • goldminer

    If we as a nation believe we can rise up and prevail over the global catrosphe that is coming. We can do it. You don’t have to kneel down and pray to your god and hope. Or think that god is coming out of the clouds with his whole hosts of angles to save your sorry azz.
    You need to BELIEVE. We can do it. We are the most powerful beings in the universe. Nothing can stand in our way if you truly believe!
    BTY…………….. Hope is the worst form of fear

    • rentslave

      I don’t think that God has any angles.

    • Paul Patriot

      Ahhh….the power in humanism and human effort, rather than looking to the one who created us and who’s Word tells us exactly what is coming, AND, the reason things are happening as they are.

      You can BELIEVE the 20 trillion dollar debt will just gok away, but it will not. The OBJECT of your belief is the critical part.

      We are Not the “most powerful beings in universe”

      You can believe in yourself all you want, that will not change the fact that you are immortal, and cannot control the future.

      You can truly believe that you will not physically die, yet, I promise you, you will die

  • winrob

    Pessimism is a loser in life. Why are some people that way? Abe Lincoln failed in nearly every endeavor, but succeeded as President. Do you think he was a pessimist? If you become afflicted with a serious medical condition and are pessimistic, your relatives might as well give up on you. Doctors will refer to research that clearly proves optimism saves lives. Stop with the Gloom-and-Doom Krappe!

    • rentslave

      I guess that you’re not in the bond market.It’s outracing gravity.

    • Paul Patriot

      Good point, but being overly pessimistic can lead to apathy and normalcy bias, and then great disappointment and delusion when the storms of life arrive at your door.

  • John Amway Ibo

    Let there be sudden unexpected stock market crashes
    next week .

    Let the Dow Jones fall down ,
    like the wall of Jericho in Joshua time .

    Let the SPX dive deep instantly .

    If they should crash ,
    No need to delay it ,
    Let them crash immediately ,
    The faster the better .

    May God expedite the crashes now

    Let there be sudden unexpected ” Black Monday

  • Jason

    Anyone here remember the a minute to midnight interview from January 2016 with Joanie stahl. One of Obama secret service agent told her trump was chosen back in 2014 yet. He will cause coast to coast civil unrest when he starts mass deportations them there will be martial law. Throw the economic collapse somewhere in there too.

  • mtntrek3

    Yep, well we hope Donald can help us out. To be continued……. . …….. One day Jesus will set up His kingdom. That will be a glad day indeed.

    • GSOB

      Luke 7:28

  • Mr.Cipher

    Many of us are absolutely giddy to see the current occupant of the Oval Office cleaning out his desk and no one to continue his disastrous foreign and domestic policies.

  • Mondobeyondo

    Two things to think about:
    1. What goes up must come down.
    2. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

    All that adrenaline from this Trump victory is going to wear off.He hasn’t even been inaugurated yet. Just wait until he’s sitting in that chair in the Oval Office and reality hits…

    • mtntrek3

      Time marches on and we will see what is to be. …….. Seriously, and with concern… God tells all through the Bible.

    • GSOB

      Pray the Lord protects him from getting hit

    • David

      that’s if he even makes it to the whitehouse. many republican electors are refusing to cast their ballot for him. we very well could end up with a constitutional crisis on our hands with Obullcrap still in the whitehouse until the crisis passes.

  • Arthur Wholeflaffers

    The chances the Trump will help the vast majority of the working class is as close to absolute zero as one can get. Eventually the chickens will come home to roost and reality will set in; that will not be pretty. Anyone who reads this page understands that this exuberance is completely unsustainable and even the Corporate State will depend on massive government handouts and bailouts. Expect at a very minimum another huge recession if not a full-blown depression. Thanks Trump.

    • mtntrek3

      Noted. Hopefully not, however……. . ?? ….

  • mtntrek3

    Some may refer to Michael’s blog as pessimism. It’s realism. Things will progressively get worse, with up and down trends on the way. Horribly bad times are to come. God says it. I’m just a messenger boy. Michael and ones like him are the greater of God’s servants. One very happy day after all the calamities are over…… God will reign over the earth. Paradise. Woohoooooo. 🙂 . Faith in God first.

    • GSOB

      Philippians 2:15

  • XSANDIEGOCA

    In this Season of Hope, let us Savor the Moment! We must regard the Election of Trump as nothing less than the Hand of God at work. How could it be otherwise? Everything was against him yet… he defied the Polls and the Odds to win. It should not have happened but it did ! To be sure, we face tremendous challenges. I liken Trump’s task as akin to trying to clean out the Augean Stables with a toothbrush and a soft one at that! There will be disappointments but – as this Election has proven – they can all be overcome. We and Trump have proven it. We must have Faith in ourselves and our country. Certainly, he has lined up a Team of Winners. Men who Can Do! Contrast that with the current crop. Let us put our shoulders to the wheel and press on!

    • GSOB

      Judges 6:40

      • SnodtBlossom

        Impeach President PigBastard T.Rump!!!

        • David

          now, now snot I mean Snodblossom. you just may very well get your wish of a constitutional crisis when trumps republican electors refuse to cast their votes for him on Dec 19th. however there comes a price for this betrayal & it will incite more violence than we have already seen.

  • Artemis

    Let us think like an Obama and his banker minions.
    Trump just won the election, market drops 800 points, gold jumps $70 and trading is halted. Magically, the DOW is approaching 20,000 and gold is falling off a cliff. This is suspicious, considering the 800 point drop was barely mentioned in the paper.

    Now why are the markets skyrocketing and gold is crashing? Could it be the bankers are now cashing out their stocks at all time highs, and moving their profits into extremely discounted gold?

    Are they getting ready to crash the system and are currently bailing themselves out and into gold, while joe 6-pack is buying stocks and selling gold?

    Obama very clearly stated Trump will not be president, considering they can rig the votes, and they did, what are they up to? What could stop Trump from getting in in 40 days?

    Could they be planning a cyber attack on the banks over Christmas? Blame it on Russia or ISIS? The bankers would make a killing having sold all their stocks and bought gold. Gold is close to the cost of production right now.

    • socalbeachdude

      Nobody gives the slightest big of a hoot of about that little absurdly overpriced fungible junk commodity called gold which is merely in the process of reverting to its mean of $456 per ounce on the downward path that has been in process for the past 5 years since September 2011 from which it has fallen in price more than 40% from its preposterous manic speculative high.

    • goldminer

      ” Gold is close to the cost of production right now.” WHAT. ???? Gold is nowhere near cost of production now. ABX AISC are around $870 an 0z. NEM production costs are similar. Some of the junior miners have AISC far lower. The miners are making a lot of money right now. I have sure been enjoying he ride,
      The sell out in gold is a good thing. Now is the Time to buy both miner stocks and physical Yes the banksters are buying into gold. Last summer Sorros dumped about 250 billion into ABX. Thanks George! You really made my day!
      And yes I give a big hoot about Gold!!! And other PMs. They are the reason for my early retirement and the comfortable life I live.

  • LIZ THE SHIZ

    sell sell sell , short short short, buy back when cheap, it’s all rigged folks , that is all

  • K

    I try to be neither a pessimist nor an optimist. I try to remain a realist.

  • GSOB

    Since America is on a high note,…. on another note, not a
    promissory note,
    but FYI,
    Postmillennialism is the system of eschatology that is most consistent with the entire teaching of Scripture.

    • Guest

      “But evil men and seducers will grow worse and worse, deceiving and being deceived.” 2 Timothy 3:13 (MEV)

      Postmillennialism is a minority view of Bible prophecy. Postmillennialists predicted that the world would be converted to Christ within a generation or so after Robert Fulton invented the steamboat. We’re still waiting.

  • aliceinwonder

    There will be some very rough times. But there have to be. It will be dark before the dawn…but the dawn will be very bright.

  • Infidel51

    People who are optimistic about the economy because Trump won are oblivious to the true state of affairs.

    • socalbeachdude

      100% correct.

  • alan

    The only thing I can think of that might get us off the debt Titanic is if the rest of the world burns first and we stay out of it. Pretty much like WW2 all over but we don’t show up to help out. The EU implodes, Red China implodes, middle east implodes. That makes a lot of people that will need out freshly printed dollars to rebuild.

  • HeyAHuman

    I have to wonder… If Trump really does end up greatly taxing companies who send manufacturing jobs overseas, how exactly will that not guarantee price hikes on all kinds of goods? And how would the domestic tax cuts not add a massive chunk to our national debt?

    • socalbeachdude

      Indeed.

    • Alleged Comment

      Prices will go up. But so will jobs here an America and wages and security to buy them.

      Plus, you will get a better product, higher quality and support for them.

      No more Chinese junk flooding the market.

  • socalbeachdude

    We certainly do not need “optimism” but rather need pragmatic REALISM to start dealing with the massive problems in the US, not the least of which is the massive debt of more than $64 trillion with nearly $20 trillion of that being US government debt that is increasing by around $1.4 trillion a year now.

  • Linda

    Just knowing that America once again has the chance of being great is exactly what people need. We have been at the bottom of the well for 8 years and now we have hope of getting out. Thank you Donald Trump for stepping up and representing the people of this great country.

  • nohomehere

    I learned along time ago that what I think is reality and what it is can be as different as night and day!
    But! Sometimes what I saw as reality was spot on.
    Yet!
    Always there were those who disagreed !

  • Seen2013

    By old school measurements, deficit to debt spending accounts for over 80% of GDP.
    Public-Private Partnerships are the catalyst to wealth effect and wealth redistribution, and PPPs are dependent on deficit to debt spending that require public-private mergers to enhance wealth effect and wealth redistribution through Big Government authority aka Progressive Government.
    Public-Private Partnerships are historically the foundation of Kleptocracy whereas public-private mergers are the historical foundation of Plutocracy, and Plutocracy is the Pinnacle of Progressive Government that Kleptocracy strives to become.
    Socialism is an advocacy for public-private partnerships since Otto Von Bismark catalyzed Bismarkian Policies with public-private partnerships.
    National Socialism is an advocacy for public-private mergers.

    You do the math:
    -Over 80% of GDP is deficit to debt spending in the name of globalization.
    -The economy is by its very nature a capital exchange economy predominantly towards the top.
    -Inflation causes currency debasement of purchasing power of wages and benefits over time. $15 an hour wage translates to increasing purchasing power from 2.40 to around 5 an hour for less than 1 year at present inflationary rates.

    Today’s economy puts me in mind of respectively the Wiemar Agreement and Zimbabwe.

  • John Amway Ibo

    Trump should speak boldly now that the market is in Big Big Bubble .
    He mentioned that Bubble before he was elected ,
    why he just kept silent now ???

    Trump is not committed if he let the market going up like this .

    Everyone has to remind Trump to speak about the Bubble again in the media.
    He has to say it again , so the Market can start falling now
    And
    Trump should tell the Fed to raise rates at least 0.50 .

    Trump should trigger the market sell off now
    Before Obama left office .

    Come on Trump , speak boldly about the Bubble again !
    Let the Crash happen now !

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