Money

That Giant Sound You Just Heard Was The Housing Market Starting To Crack

May 12, 2022May 12, 2022 by Michael

It is happening again. More than a decade ago, we witnessed an absolutely unprecedented “housing bubble” in the United States followed by a horrific crash that resulted in millions of Americans losing their homes and a financial catastrophe on Wall Street that we still talk about today. But instead of learning our lessons from that disaster, we are repeating history instead. The “housing bubble” that we are currently experiencing is far larger than the one that burst in 2008, and everyone knew that if mortgage rates rose high enough it could cause the bubble to burst. Unfortunately, that is precisely what is taking place. The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate was sitting at 2.67 percent in December 2020, and now it has risen to 5.30 percent. In case you are bad at math, that means that the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate has roughly doubled, and that is extremely bad news for the housing market.

The combination of rapidly rising prices and soaring interest rates means that homes have become far less affordable these days.

According to CNN, U.S. home prices have jumped almost 21 percent compared to a year ago…

It’s understandable that homeowners, in particular, might be worried about a potential housing market crash — 2008 is our most recent example of what can happen after an incredible run-up in home values. And we’ve never seen a market hotter than this one. The typical US home is worth nearly 21% more than it was just a year ago, a record that’s been reset each of the past 12 months.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates have gone absolutely nuts. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate went from 2.97 percent last April to 5.11 percent this April.

That is a seismic shift.

As a result of this shift, the typical monthly payment for someone buying a home went from $1,124 in December 2020 to $1,742 in April 2022. That represents a whopping 55 percent increase…

Here’s how the numbers look for the typical home in the U.S.: The median price for a home has risen from $309,200 in December 2020 to $357,300.

Over that same period, interest rates rose from 2.67% to 5.08% this week. With a 10% down payment, that has pushed the monthly payment up from $1,124 to $1,742 — a whopping 55% increase. That’s upward of $600 a month on that $357,000 home. That’s the impact of higher prices together with rising rates.

And the truth is that the typical monthly payment is even higher here in May, because the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate has shot up to 5.30 percent…

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.3% the second week of May, according to the government-backed mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. That’s the highest it’s been since 2009. Six months ago, mortgage rates were in the 3% range.

This is the highest that mortgage rates have been since July 2009.

And in July 2009 we were living through the aftermath of the worst housing crash in all of U.S. history.

Will the coming collapse be even worse?

Data that is coming in for the month of April seems to indicate that the market is already starting to crack…

As data trickles in for April, it’s becoming clear that the historically hot housing market has flipped trajectories. It’s now in cooling mode. The number of homes listed for sale is rising again. Fewer shoppers are scheduling tours. And Redfin reports 15% of home sellers in April cut their asking price—up from 9% a year ago.

And it appears that things could rapidly get even worse.

The following quotes from industry insiders were recently posted on Zero Hedge…

Washington DC builder: “Traffic half what it was in March. Worried about first time buyers. Many fewer REAL buyers than number of people collected on interest list last 6 months. Certainly more attempts [from buyers] to negotiate.”
Seattle builder: “Pause by a large population of buyers. To achieve our desired [sales] pace, we had to make price adjustments. Rates starting to knock people out of qualification.”
Riverside San Bernardino builder: “Cancellations are starting to creep up due to loan declines and job losses. Waiting lists are certainly smaller. Saw an immediate change in buyer behavior when rates climbed over 5%.”
Los Angeles builder: “Buyers who are stretching to purchase have become more cautious.”
San Diego builder: “Buyers are definitely a bit more edgy.”

The market has clearly peaked, and now we are getting ready for the long ride downhill.

And it won’t be pretty.

If the Federal Reserve wanted to support the housing market, it would keep interest rates low, but the Federal Reserve has decided not to do that.

Instead, the Federal Reserve is recklessly raising interest rates because it is so scared of inflation.

The Fed has warned us that more rate increases are on the way in the months ahead, and that will undoubtedly push mortgage rates even higher.

When asked if he could engineer a “soft landing”, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was very honest about the fact that he could not guarantee one…

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned Thursday that getting inflation under control could cause some economic pain but remains his top priority.

Powell said he couldn’t promise a so-called soft landing for the economy as the Fed raises interest rates to tamp down price increases running near their fastest pace in more than 40 years.

If a plane does not have a “soft landing”, what kind of landing does it have?

Needless to say, the only other options are a bumpy landing or a crash.

Sadly, it appears that our housing market is in for either a bumpy landing or a crash as well.

And considering how much larger this housing bubble is compared to all other U.S. housing bubbles throughout history, I would say that the odds of a crash are really quite high.

The party was fun while it lasted, but now it has come to a screeching halt.

I hope that you are prepared for what comes next.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael and my brand new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available on Amazon.com. In addition to my new book I have written five other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, “Get Prepared Now”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. (#CommissionsEarned) When you purchase any of these books you help to support the work that I am doing, and one way that you can really help is by sending digital copies as gifts through Amazon to family and friends. Time is short, and I need help getting these warnings into the hands of as many people as possible. I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe. I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article. The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions. I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help. These are such troubled times, and people need hope. John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.” If you have not already done so, I strongly urge you to ask Jesus to be your Lord and Savior today.

Is “Meltdown” The Correct Term To Describe The Current State Of The U.S. Economy?

May 11, 2022May 11, 2022 by Michael

I have really been struggling to come up with an accurate way of describing the current state of the U.S. economy, because none of the traditional labels seem to apply. Inflation is out of control, and that normally happens when an economy is overheating. But of course the U.S. economy is not overheating. In fact, if U.S. GDP falls once again during the second quarter, that will officially confirm that we are actually in a recession right now. There are some that have suggested that “stagflation” is a good description of current economic conditions, but the truth is that what we are facing is so much worse than anything that we dealt with during the 1970s.

Let me give you an example. The Bureau of Labor Statistics just informed us that the consumer price index is 8.3 percent higher than it was a year ago…

Inflation rose again in April, continuing a climb that has pushed consumers to the brink and is threatening the economic expansion, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 8.3% from a year ago, higher than the Dow Jones estimate for an 8.1% gain.

That is a really bad number, but it doesn’t accurately reflect reality.

If inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, the official rate of inflation would be well over 15 percent right now, and that is far worse than at any point during the Jimmy Carter era.

And if you can believe it, the real rate of inflation is now the highest that it has ever been in the entire modern history of the United States.

The term “meltdown” comes to mind, but I don’t think that completely captures what we are facing either.

Of course Joe Biden says he has a plan, and he insists that reducing inflation is his “top economic priority”…

President Biden, reacting to April’s consumer price index Wednesday, acknowledged that inflation is “unacceptably high,” and maintained that lowering prices for American families is his “top economic priority,” while again blaming the surging numbers on COVID-19 and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile, tens of millions of ordinary Americans continue to deeply suffer as prices spiral out of control.

Earlier today, I was stunned to see that even CNN is admitting that some Americans are “skipping meals” these days in order to make ends meet…

The price of groceries, gas, rent and utilities has marched higher over the past year; but wages have not kept up — and more than half of single parents make less than $15 an hour, according to recent research from Oxfam.

That has left many single parents skipping meals so their children have plenty of food, providing less healthy meals for their families, and culling expenses to the point where any unforeseen cost could mean more debt — or worse.

If people are skipping meals already, what will things be like a year from now when economic conditions are even worse?

Most people don’t realize this, but we are extremely vulnerable. When the next major downturn strikes, millions upon millions of Americans will be instantly wiped out.

According to a report that was just released, almost two-thirds of all Americans are currently living paycheck to paycheck…

As of March, close to two-thirds, or 64%, of the U.S. population was living paycheck to paycheck, just shy of the high of 65% in 2020, according to a LendingClub report.

“The number of people living paycheck to paycheck today is reminiscent of the early days of the pandemic and it has become the dominant lifestyle across income brackets,” said Anuj Nayar, LendingClub’s financial health officer.

Living on the edge is fine as long as a paycheck keeps coming in like clockwork.

But if things suddenly shift, millions upon millions of Americans could suddenly find themselves plunged into poverty.

Before I end this article, I would be remiss if I did not mention the fact that financial markets were way down yet again today.

In fact, the Nasdaq dropped another 3 percent.

But the big news is what is happening to the cryptocurrency industry. Cryptos are crashing harder than Hunter Biden after a drug-fueled night with a Chinese hooker, and Coinbase is coming apart like a 20 dollar suit…

The cryptocurrency brokerage reported a first-quarter loss late Tuesday and revenue that fell 27% from a year ago, missing Wall Street’s forecasts. Coinbase shares plummeted nearly 25% in early trading Wednesday morning and hit their lowest level ever.

Coinbase stock is now down more than 75% this year and is trading nearly 85% below its all-time high price from November. Shares have lost more than half their value in just the past week alone.

If you have money with Coinbase, you may want to consider your options, because it is being reported that “users might lose all the cryptocurrency stored in their accounts” if Coinbase actually goes bankrupt…

Hidden away in Coinbase Global’s disappointing first-quarter earnings report—in which the U.S.’s largest cryptocurrency exchange reported a quarterly loss of $430 million and a 19% drop in monthly users—is an update on the risks of using Coinbase’s service that may come as a surprise to its millions of users.

In the event the crypto exchange goes bankrupt, Coinbase says, its users might lose all the cryptocurrency stored in their accounts too.

I was absolutely floored when I first read that.

Right now, Coinbase is holding more than 250 billion dollars worth of assets for its customers, and there is a danger that all of it could become “inaccessible”…

Coinbase said in its earnings report Tuesday that it holds $256 billion in both fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies on behalf of its customers. Yet the exchange noted that in the event it ever declared bankruptcy, “the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings.” Coinbase users would become “general unsecured creditors,” meaning they have no right to claim any specific property from the exchange in proceedings. Their funds would become inaccessible.

So there are some people out there that currently believe that they are crypto millionaires that could literally end up with nothing.

At this point, the crypto industry is in the process of melting down.

But so are the financial markets.

And so is the overall economy.

The great unraveling that we have been warned about is here, and we are still only in the early chapters.

I would greatly encourage you to protect your assets while you still can.

A rush for the exits has now begun, and you don’t want to be caught holding the bag.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

Welcome To The Greatest Energy Crisis In History – Things Will Only Get Much More Painful From Here

May 10, 2022 by Michael

Just as the western world was accelerating the transition away from traditional forms of energy, the COVID pandemic caused the most epic supply chain crisis in history, and now the largest land war in Europe since World War II has thrown global energy markets into a state of complete and utter chaos. And if you think that things are bad now, just wait until a huge war erupts in the Middle East. Energy prices are ridiculously high now, but they will eventually go much higher than this. Needless to say, skyrocketing energy prices will have a catastrophic impact on worldwide economic conditions during the troubled months and years ahead of us.

Do you remember when Joe Biden promised that he would do all that he possibly could to drive down the price of gasoline?

Yeah, that isn’t exactly working out too well…

Retail gasoline prices in the United States rose on Tuesday and hit another all-time record, surpassing one set in March, as global refineries grappled with a bottleneck that has sent prices soaring ahead of driving season.

The average cost of a retail gallon of gasoline hit $4.374 early Tuesday, according to the American Automobile Association, surpassing the former record of $4.331.

Ultimately, it really is a matter of supply and demand.

We need more drilling, we need more refineries, and we need less regulation on traditional forms of energy all over the western world.

But with the leaders that are currently in place, you shouldn’t expect any significant changes any time soon.

So the price of gasoline will continue to rise.

And actually the price of diesel has been going up even faster…

Tom Kloza, head of global energy research at OPIS, said that in years past a barrel of diesel typically sold for $10 above the price of crude oil. Today, that differential – known as the crack spread – has surged to a record high above $70.

“It’s become untethered, unmoored, a little bit unhinged. These are prices we’re not used to seeing,” he said, adding that there are large price differences across the U.S.

That is really bad news, because our economy runs on diesel fuel.

As I pointed out yesterday, our trains and our trucks are powered by diesel, and so rapidly rising diesel prices are going to have a huge economic impact.

In addition, most farm equipment uses diesel as well, and this is yet another factor that is putting an enormous amount of financial stress on America’s farmers.

One farmer that was asked about this admitted that he is “really concerned how bad it can get this next year”…

“My family is preparing now and stocking up our freezers and pantry because we are really concerned how bad it can get this next year.”

He estimates that fertilizer prices near him have increased 200 or even 300 percent, “dependent on what program you are running.”

The rise in diesel prices has hurt him the most. “Farm equipment runs on diesel,” he pointed out.

According to AAA’s gas price website, diesel in Texas is running at an average of $5.231, up from $2.820 a year ago.

Needless to say, you should be stock up too, because things are going to look completely different a year from now than they do today.

Of course things are already getting quite crazy. Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal warned that widespread electricity shortages in the U.S. could be coming as early as this summer…

From California to Texas to Indiana, electric-grid operators are warning that power-generating capacity is struggling to keep up with demand, a gap that could lead to rolling blackouts during heat waves or other peak periods as soon as this year.

California’s grid operator said Friday that it anticipates a shortfall in supplies this summer, especially if extreme heat, wildfires or delays in bringing new power sources online exacerbate the constraints.

I am stunned that things have gotten this bad already.

And the Ukrainians have decided to make things even worse for the western world by cutting off a key source of Russian natural gas that Europe depends upon…

Ukraine’s state-owned gas grid operator GTSOU said May 10 it had declared force majeure on the transit of Russian gas entering the Ukrainian system at Sokhranivka and would not accept gas at the entry point from May 11.

The force majeure declaration, the first of its kind since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, sent European gas prices sharply higher.

As energy prices rise, so will prices for everything else.

Because it takes energy to produce and transport virtually everything that we buy and sell.

So the inflation spiral that we are currently enjoying is likely to intensify even more in the months ahead.

At this point, economic conditions are already shifting so rapidly that some restaurants have decided to put stickers on their menus so that they can be easily changed…

It’s not the prices on the menu so much that’ll shock you. They’re actually still very cheap (and the tacos really good). It’s the fact that the prices were scrawled in pen on stickers slapped on the menu. Those stickers are a tell-tale sign that prices are going up at such a rapid-fire clip that the staff is struggling to print new menus fast enough. Rewriting prices on old menus is easier and cheaper, too.

A quick scan of the restaurant’s Facebook posts lays out the increases. The special, offered every Wednesday and Friday, had been $1 per taco for years. That changed in February of last year, when it was raised to $1.25. A month later, it went to $1.50. This January, it shot up to $1.75. And now it’s $2.00.

This is the sort of thing that happens in Venezuela.

And now it is happening in the United States of America.

BIDEN: “The number one threat is the strength, and that strength that we’ve built is inflation.” pic.twitter.com/BfaJB8U6dC

— VINnews (@VINNews) May 10, 2022

In a desperate attempt to get inflation under control, the Federal Reserve has recklessly raised interest rates.

This is going to absolutely crush the housing bubble, and financial markets appear to be poised to repeat history.

They say that every 90 years humans repeat the same behavior.

1916-1929 vs 2000-2022.

The end game… pic.twitter.com/enXVQieFPW

— HOZ (@MFHoz) May 5, 2022

When I bring up the years 1929 and 2008, what do you immediately think about?

The answer to that question is obvious.

Now we stand on the precipice of another major financial disaster, but this time around there will not be a “return to normal”.

The entire western world has been on a suicidal path for decades, and now a day of reckoning has finally arrived.

And since the U.S. and Europe are the two core pillars of the global economy, the whole world will feel the pain of the coming collapse.

So I would encourage you to buckle your seatbelts, because the road ahead is going to be exceedingly bumpy.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

The Stock Market Carnage That You Have Been Waiting For Is Here

May 9, 2022May 9, 2022 by Michael

A lot of people out there have been waiting for this stock market bubble to implode for a really long time. Well, the wait is now over. Stock prices have been falling for months, but what we have witnessed within the past couple of weeks has been absolutely breathtaking. Trillions upon trillions of dollars worth of paper wealth has been suddenly wiped out, and many investors are panic selling in a desperate attempt to lock in profits before the market completely collapses.

On Monday, the Dow lost another 600 points, but the really big news continues to be the staggering declines for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 653.67 points to 32,245.70, or 1.99%. The S&P 500 fell 3.2% to settle at 3,991.24, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 4.29% to 11,623.25.

It has been stunning to see these sorts of numbers day after day.

One long-time market veteran actually used the word “violent” to describe what we have been witnessing…

“I’ve been in the markets for 25 years and I’ve never seen anything like this,” said Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for Quill Intelligence, a Wall Street and Federal Reserve research firm. “It’s violent not just volatile.”

Sadly, she is right on target. Things have already gotten really crazy, but many believe that the most chaotic chapters of this market implosion are still ahead of us.

The S&P 500 just dropped below 4,000 for the first time in more than a year, and I am already seeing people talk about what will happen when it falls to 3,000.

As for the Nasdaq, it has already plummeted 27 percent from the all-time record high.

Needless to say, that puts the Nasdaq well into bear market territory.

Tech stocks were crushed once again to begin the week, with some of the biggest names leading the way…

Rising rates continued to crush technology names such as Meta Platforms and Alphabet, which lost 3.7% and 2.8%, respectively. Amazon, Apple and Netflix all fell more than 5%, 3% and 4%, respectively, while Tesla and Nvidia plunged more than 9% each.

Ouch!

And check out these numbers for all of 2022 so far…

Tesla: down 25 percent

Disney: down 30 percent

Amazon: down 34 percent

Facebook: down 41 percent

Uber: down 45 percent

Snap: down 50 percent

Netflix: down 71 percent

Of course Palantir has them all beat…

Palantir Technologies, which went public in September 2020 via a direct listing amid enormous hype and hoopla, has now earned a much coveted spot in my Imploded Stocks column.

Today, Palantir reported another huge loss, this time $101 million, on $446 million in revenues, bringing its total loss over the past four years, to $2.86 billion. Its revenue outlook for Q2 was below what Wall Street expected. Shares [PLTR] kathoomphed 22% so far today, and 84% from the peak in January 2021, to $7.40 a new all-time low.

Investors are starting to figure out that trendy “tech companies” that regularly lose hundreds of millions of dollars are not actually good investments.

Cryptocurrencies have been falling dramatically as well.

Bitcoin and other cryptos were hammered really hard once again on Monday, and at this point Bitcoin is down almost 55 percent from the all-time high…

Bitcoin is off nearly 55% from its November peak, and 40% of holders are now underwater on their investments, according to new data from Glassnode.

That percentage is even higher when you isolate for the short-term holders who got skin in the game in the last six months when the price of bitcoin peaked at around $69,000.

Those that bought Bitcoin low and got out in time ended up making a killing.

But those that got in at or near the top of the market and just kept holding on are going to get absolutely eviscerated.

Of course that is how the market works. You either eat or you get eaten.

As for what is ahead, many of the experts are fearing the worst. Here is just one example…

“We expect markets to remain volatile, with risks skewed to the downside as stagflation risks continue to increase,” wrote Barclays’ Maneesh Deshpande. “While we cannot discount sharp bear market rallies, we think upside is limited.”

In the short-term, you would think that things should stabilize at some point.

The fact that the Fed recklessly raised interest rates last week really shook a lot of people up, but that wave of panic should soon subside.

The much bigger issue is the outlook for the U.S. economy moving forward. Interestingly, even corporate media outlets are now adopting a very negative tone about what is coming…

Inflation is at a 40-year high. Stock prices are sinking. The Federal Reserve is making borrowing much costlier. And the economy actually shrank in the first three months of this year.

Is the United States at risk of enduring another recession, just two years after emerging from the last one?

Even without another unexpected “trigger event”, the U.S. economy should get progressively worse throughout the remainder of 2022.

But as I have detailed in my last couple of books, I believe that we have entered a time in history when unexpected “trigger events” will come fast and furious.

Keep a close eye on the Middle East for the rest of this year, and we will all want to carefully watch how the global food crisis develops.

When people don’t have enough food, violence tends to erupt. We saw this during the Arab Spring of 2011, and we will undoubtedly see similar eruptions in the months ahead.

Only this time around, the food shortages that we are facing threaten to develop into a long-term phenomenon.

In all my years of writing, I have never been more concerned about what is in front of us.

We have already been hit by crisis after crisis so far in 2022, but it looks like the second half of this year is going to be even crazier than the first half.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

18 Signs That Food Shortages Will Get A Lot Worse As We Head Into The Second Half Of 2022

May 8, 2022May 8, 2022 by Michael

If you think that things are bad now, just wait until we get into the second half of this year. Global food supplies have already gotten very tight, but it is the food that won’t be produced during this current growing season in the northern hemisphere that will be the real problem. Worldwide fertilizer prices have doubled or tripled, the war in Ukraine has greatly reduced exports from one of the key breadbaskets of the world, a nightmarish bird flu pandemic is wiping out millions of chickens and turkeys, and bizarre weather patterns are absolutely hammering agricultural production all over the planet. I have often used the phrase “a perfect storm” to describe what we are facing, but even that phrase really doesn’t seem to do justice to the crisis that we will be dealing with in the months ahead. The following are 18 signs that food shortages will get a lot worse as we head into the second half of 2022…

#1 The largest fertilizer company on the entire planet is publicly warning that severe supply disruptions “could last well beyond 2022”…

The world’s largest fertilizer company warned supply disruptions could extend into 2023. A bulk of the world’s supply has been taken offline due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. This has sparked soaring prices and shortages of crop nutrients in top growing areas worldwide; an early indication of a global food crisis could be in the beginning innings.

Bloomberg reports Canada-based Nutrien Ltd.’s CEO Ken Seitz told investors on Tuesday during a conference call that he expects to increase potash production following supply disruptions in Russia and Ukraine (both major fertilizer suppliers). Seitz expects disruptions “could last well beyond 2022.”

#2 The world fertilizer price index has skyrocketed to absurd heights that have never been seen before.

#3 It is being reported that global grain reserves have dropped to “extremely low” levels…

“Global grains stocks remain extremely low, an issue that has become amplified because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We think it will take at least 2-3 years to replenish global grains stocks,” Illinois-based CF Industries Holdings Inc.’s president and chief executive officer Tony Will said in a statement in Wednesday’s earnings report.

#4 Due to the war, agricultural exports from Ukraine have been completely paralyzed…

Nearly 25 million tonnes of grains are stuck in Ukraine and unable to leave the country due to infrastructure challenges and blocked Black Sea ports including Mariupol, a U.N. food agency official said on Friday.

The blockages are seen as a factor behind high food prices which hit a record high in March in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, before easing slightly in April, the FAO said on Friday.

#5 The out-of-stock rate for baby formula in the United States has now reached 40 percent…

The out-of-stock rate for baby formula hovered between 2% and 8% in the first half of 2021, but began rising sharply last July. Between November 2021 and early April 2022, the out-of-stock rate jumped to 31%, data from Datasembly showed.

That rate increased another 9 percentage points in just three weeks in April, and now stands at 40%, the statistics show. In six states — Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas and Tennessee — more than half of baby formula was completely sold out during the week starting April 24, Datasembly said.

#6 In six U.S. states, the out-of-stock rate for baby formula has actually risen to 50 percent or greater.

#7 Searches for the phrase “how to make homemade formula for babies” on Google have spiked 120 percent.

#8 We are being told that this is a “perfect storm” as shelves become increasingly bare at food banks all around the nation.

#9 In Canada, more than 1.7 million chickens and turkeys have already been lost in recent months due to the global bird flu pandemic.

#10 In the United States, more than 37 million chickens and turkeys have already been wiped out due to the global bird flu pandemic.

#11 The two largest reservoirs in California, Shasta Lake and Lake Oroville, have both fallen to “critically low levels”.

#12 Some communities in southern California won’t be able to make it through the coming summer months without “significantly cutting back” on their water usage.

#13 Many of the largest lakes around the world are currently in the process of disappearing because they are rapidly drying up.

#14 Wildfires continue to absolutely devastate agricultural land all across the western half of the United States. This weekend, it was New Mexico’s turn to be hit the hardest…

After a few days of calm that allowed some families who had fled wildfires raging in northeast New Mexico to return to their homes, dangerous winds picked up again Sunday, threatening to spread spot fires and complicate work for firefighters.

More than 1,500 firefighters were on the fire lines at the biggest blaze east and northeast of Santa Fe, which grew another 8 square miles (20 square kilometers) overnight to an area more than twice as large as the city of Philadelphia.

#15 We are being told that steak prices in the United States will “keep rising” in the days ahead.

#16 Due to hail and frost, the Spanish apricot crop is going to be way below expectations…

In Spain, the latest forecasts suggest production will not reach 60,000 tonnes, compared with 110,000 tonnes in 2019 and 100,000 tonnes in 2020 and 90,000 tonnes in 2021.

In Murcia, where around two-thirds of Spain’s apricot production is located, farmers in the Mula River and northwest regions have been forced to write off the entire season following a severe hailstorm on Monday which not only resulted in the loss of the fruit, but also caused widespread damage to trees.

#17 Overall, Spanish fruit production is expected to drop to the lowest level in 40 years.

#18 Kansas Senator Roger Marshall is openly warning that a horrifying worldwide famine is coming…

The war in Ukraine will lead to a worldwide famine in the next two years, warned Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Ky.), who serves on the Senate Agriculture Committee, warned on Tuesday.

“You know I’m a big agriculture guy. Twelve, 15 percent of the agriculture products – corn and wheat, sunflower oil – come through that Black Sea, so— and fertilizers come from that area as well, so there actually is going to be a famine one to two years from now. I think two years from now will be even worse,” he told Fox Business’s “Mornings with Maria Bartiromo” on Tuesday.

The alarm bells are ringing.

Are you listening?

In all of the years that I have been writing, I have never seen anything even close to this, and this crisis is only going to intensify as the months roll along.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

The Stock Market Is Crashing! Is This 1,000 Point Wipeout Just The Beginning Of A Historic Financial Nightmare?

May 5, 2022 by Michael

Is this “the Big One”? On Wednesday, I warned that the Federal Reserve had made a “colossal mistake” when it increased its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, and it looks like investors on Wall Street fully agree. We just witnessed one of the largest single day stock market crashes in history, and of course this comes at a time when stock prices had already fallen quite dramatically. Even before the carnage on Thursday, stocks were off to their worst start to a year in decades. So will things settle down soon, or is this the beginning of a truly historic stock market collapse?

Millions of Americans better hope that it is the former, because trillions upon trillions of dollars in paper wealth is on the line.

I have always warned my readers that you only make money in the stock market if you get out in time.

It doesn’t matter if you were holding certain stocks when they soared to all-time record highs. What is going to determine if you make a profit or not is when you choose to sell.

And markets tend to go down a whole lot faster than they go up.

On Thursday, the Dow was down more than 1,000 points, the S&P 500 plunged more than 3.5 percent, and the Nasdaq got absolutely crushed…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1,063 points, or 3.12%, to close at 32,997.97. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 4.99% to finish at 12,317.69, its lowest closing level since November 2020. Both of those losses were the worst single-day drops since 2020.

The S&P 500 fell 3.56% to 4,146.87, marking its second worst day of the year.

The reason why the Nasdaq plummeted so dramatically was because tech stocks were in “free fall mode” once again…

Large tech stocks were under pressure, with Facebook-parent Meta Platforms and Amazon falling 6.8% and 7.6%, respectively. Microsoft dropped 4.4%. Salesforce tumbled 7.1%. Apple sank 5.6%.

If you think that those numbers are bad, just look at what happened to Etsy and eBay…

Etsy and eBay dropped 16.8% and 11.7%, respectively, after issuing weaker-than-expected revenue guidance. Shopify fell nearly 15% after missing estimates on the top and bottom lines.

The declines dragged Nasdaq to its worst day in nearly two years.

We have seen other bad days on Wall Street in recent years, but this definitely feels different.

I think that Kim Forrest has done a better job than anyone else of summarizing what we just witnessed…

“I expected some selloff, but the great puking that’s happening, I didn’t expect,” said Kim Forrest, founder and chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners. “Is this capitulation? I remember what capitulation feels like — this kind of feels like capitulation, when everything, even the good names, are getting barfed out.”

I could not have said it better myself.

So precisely what was the trigger that prompted this rush for the exits?

Well, a lot of analysts are pointing to the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates on Wednesday. Here is one example…

“It’s going to be incredibly difficult for the Fed to normalize interest rates without having a negative impact on growth and earnings,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management. “So stock prices are too high if we’re going to see a flattening or a decline in earnings per share.”

Because there is so much leverage in the market right now, rapid declines could precipitate wave after wave of forced selling.

In fact, it appears that this is already happening to a certain degree.

Ultimately, it certainly won’t take too much to turn this “market slide” into a “market avalanche”.

Meanwhile, we continue to get more indications that the U.S. economy as a whole is really slowing down. On Thursday, we learned that worker productivity declined “at its fastest pace in nearly 75 years” during the first quarter…

Worker productivity fell to start 2022 at its fastest pace in nearly 75 years while labor costs soared as the U.S. struggled with surging Covid cases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

Nonfarm productivity, a measure of output against hours worked, declined 7.5% from January through March, the biggest fall since the third quarter of 1947.

At the same time, we continue to get more bad news on the inflation front.

One of the largest meatpackers in the western hemisphere is warning that steaks and burgers will get even more expensive in the months ahead…

Beef will be getting even more expensive at U.S. grocery stores in the months ahead, according to one of the country’s biggest meatpackers.

National Beef Co., controlled by the Brazilian giant Marfrig Global Foods, sees relatively stable margins in the next two quarters, according to Tim Klein, who heads Marfrig’s U.S. operations. That means even though their costs to buy cattle are increasing, the company will ultimately be able to pass that on to consumers in the form of pricier steaks and burgers.

And the rapidly rising cost of fertilizer will inevitably make trips to the grocery store much more painful later this year…

A fertilizer shortage is putting the food supply at risk.

Fertilizer prices have tripled from where they were in 2021 and it’s forcing Mid-Michigan farmers to change how they grow their crops.

“You’re cutting off one hand to save the other,” said Seth Cords.

So many things are simultaneously going wrong, and the outlook for the second half of this year is exceedingly bleak.

But for a long time stock prices were able to defy economic reality.

Even though economic conditions were rapidly deteriorating all around us, investors just continued to party on as stock prices just kept going higher and higher.

Of course now everything has changed.

Trillions of dollars in paper wealth has already been wiped out, and trillions more will likely be wiped out in the days ahead.

But Wall Street doesn’t even realize that what we have been through so far is just a warm up act.

Much more difficult days are coming, and eventually we will see financial disaster on a scale that is absolutely unprecedented in our history.

Hopefully that time can be put off for as long as possible.

But the clock is ticking, and what happened on Thursday should be a major league wake up call for all of us.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

The Federal Reserve Just Made A Colossal Mistake

May 4, 2022 by Michael

You don’t raise interest rates when the economy is already falling into a recession. U.S. GDP contracted during the first quarter of 2022, and if it contracts again in the second quarter of 2022 that will officially confirm that we are already in a recession right now. Any central banker that would choose to raise interest rates just as a new recession is starting is absolutely nuts. But the “experts” at the Fed decided to go ahead with a 50 basis point rate hike on Wednesday anyway. This was the largest rate hike that we have seen since the year 2000, and it appears that more rate hikes are coming later in the year.

Let me start my analysis by clearly stating that I believe that the Federal Reserve should be abolished. A centrally managed economy is extremely odious to those of us that truly believe in free market economics, but unfortunately most of the population still fully embraces our economic overlords at the Fed even though they keep making enormous policy errors again and again.

Previously, we have seen the Fed tighten just as the U.S. economy began to slow down, and that resulted in some of the worst economic downturns in our history.

Now it is happening again, and we keep getting more confirmations that the economy has already been cooling off. For example, the ADP employment report for the month of April was way below expectations…

U.S. companies added far fewer jobs than expected in April, suggesting the tightest labor market in decades has made it difficult for businesses to fill a record number of open positions, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday morning.

Companies added 247,000 jobs in April, sharply missing the 395,000 gain that economists surveyed by Refinitiv had predicted. It also marked a big decline from March, when private employers added an upwardly revised 479,000 jobs.

The officials at the Fed can see what is happening, but they are desperate to get the inflation monster that they played a major role in creating under control.

During his post-meeting news conference, Jerome Powell conceded that inflation is causing “hardship” for the American people…

“Inflation is much too high,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters at a post-meeting news conference. “We understand the hardship it is causing, and we’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down. We have both the tools we need and the resolve that it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses.”

It is certainly true that inflation is much too high.

But a 50 basis point hike is not going to make much of a difference on that front at all.

On the other hand, everyone agrees that the 50 basis point hike will have a substantial short-term impact on economic activity…

It’s expected to set off a domino effect through the economy, pushing up rates for credit cards, home equity lines of credit and adjustable-rate mortgages, among other loans.

In particular, this move will have enormous implications for the housing market.

Just as we have reached the peak of yet another housing bubble and foreclosures are starting to surge, Powell and his minions have decided to unleash chaos.

Do you remember 2008? Well, if officials at the Fed keep raising interest rates we could be in for a crisis in the housing market that is even worse.

Unfortunately, it sounds like that is exactly what Powell and his minions are planning…

“There is a broad consensus (among Fed policymakers) that additional (half-point) rate increases should be on the table at the next couple of meetings,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference.

Don’t do it Powell.

Please don’t do it.

Going down that road will only end in tragedy.

Incredibly, the Fed is also telling us that it is going to start reducing the size of its balance sheet…

The Fed also announced that it will start reducing its massive $9 trillion balance sheet, which nearly doubled in size during the pandemic as the central bank bought mortgage-backed securities and other Treasurys to keep borrowing cheap. In a plan outlined Wednesday, the Fed indicated that it will begin winding down the balance sheet on June 1 at an initial combined monthly pace of $47.5 billion, a move that will further tighten credit for U.S. households. It will increase the run-off rate to $95 billion over three months.

Essentially, this will be “quantitative easing” in reverse.

The Fed created the unprecedented stock market bubble that we have now by pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system, and now they are threatening to burst that bubble.

And this comes at a time when stocks have already been falling precipitously. Stocks are off to their worst start to a year in decades, and the Fed seems to think that this is a perfect time to make things even worse.

What in the world are the “experts” at the Fed thinking?

Right now, economic conditions are rapidly slowing down all over the world and the UN has warned us that we are heading into the worst global food crisis since World War II.

So this is a perfect opportunity for the Fed to depress economic activity even more?

Something doesn’t smell right about all of this.

I have been a very strong critic of the Federal Reserve for many years, but even I have a hard time believing that the officials at the Fed are this incompetent.

We are currently dealing with the largest land war in Europe since the 1940s, impending global famine, a horrifying bird flu pandemic and rapidly deteriorating economic conditions all over the planet.

And the Fed chooses this moment to tighten?

What a colossal mistake.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

America Is About To Explode With Emotion, But Overturning Roe Wouldn’t Actually Change Much

May 3, 2022 by Michael

Before you get upset with my headline, please read my analysis. I think that overturning Roe v. Wade is long overdue, and it is an absolutely wonderful thing for our country. But as I will explain in this article, that step alone won’t dramatically change the number of abortions that are performed in the United States. In most blue states, the abortion industry will continue to operate normally, and in most red states the anti-abortion laws that will be implemented will not cover most abortions.

Democrats in Congress would like to “codify Roe v. Wade” on the federal level, but in this article I am going to assume that they don’t have the votes in the U.S. Senate to either get rid of the filibuster or to pass such a law with the filibuster in place.

If both of those assumptions are correct, then the individual states will get to make their own determinations about the legality of abortion once Roe v. Wade is overturned. Some prominent news sources are running greatly exaggerated stories about what will happen if that takes place. For example, the following comes from NBC News…

Abortion rights would be up to the states if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade. Two-dozen states and territories would ban it immediately, and 13 have “trigger laws” waiting for the ruling.

What you just read is false.

Abortion will not be completely banned in two dozen states if Roe is overturned. Whoever wrote that doesn’t know what they are talking about.

So let me take this one step at a time and try to explain precisely what would happen.

The states of Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Michigan, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin have abortion laws on their books that existed before Roe v. Wade was decided. Needless to say, not all of those states would enforce those old laws if Roe is overturned. In particular, I know that the Democratic governors of Michigan and Wisconsin are quite determined not to enforce those old laws.

There is another group of states that have passed “trigger laws” that will go into effect after Roe v. Wade is overturned. These are the states in that category: Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.

As you can see, the states of Arkansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Texas are in both groups.

There are other states that have passed laws that partially restrict abortion in recent years, and most of those laws have been struck down by the courts. But if Roe is overturned, those laws would theoretically become enforceable.

But none of the state laws that have been passed since Roe v. Wade was decided are designed to totally ban abortion. Some would restrict legal abortion to the first six weeks, while other laws have deadlines of eight, fifteen or twenty weeks. Here is how that breaks down by state…

Six weeks: Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas

Eight weeks: Missouri

Fifteen weeks: Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi

Twenty weeks: Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska and North Carolina

Some states appear multiple times, and that is because more than one law that restricts abortion was passed in those particular states in recent years.

I know that all of this can be confusing, but the bottom line is that a bunch of laws that restrict abortion will go into effect in a number of red states once Roe is overturned.

However, these laws are not going to cover most of the abortions that happen in those states.

According to the CDC, 66 percent of all abortions happen during the first eight weeks of pregnancy.

And approximately 90 percent of all abortions occur within the first 13 weeks.

So once these laws are implemented, even in the red states the abortion industry will continue to pretty much operate as normal.

Once Roe is overturned, we will desperately need state laws that completely ban abortion, and that may be attempted in a small handful of states.

But overall, women that get pregnant are still going to be able to run over to Planned Parenthood and terminate the lives of their children.

Don’t get me wrong. I am very excited that Roe v. Wade is being overturned, but that isn’t the end of the battle.

In fact, it is just the beginning.

Ultimately, if we ever hope to end abortion in America, we have got to change millions upon millions of hearts.

Because right now most polls show that Americans want to keep Roe by about a two to one margin. In fact, another such poll was just released…

A Washington Post-ABC News poll published Tuesday found that a majority of Americans support the Supreme Court upholding Roe v. Wade. The poll, conducted last week, found 54% of Americans support upholding Roe, while 28% support overturning it. The poll found 18% had no opinion.

Those numbers are extremely sad.

And unfortunately there is a tremendous amount of passion and energy on the pro-abortion side.

In the last 24 hours, there have been lots of very angry leftists on social media that have been openly threatening to start burning things down. Here is one example.

And now there is this. In a draft circulated opinion NOT A FINAL ONE BUT IT MIGHT AS WELL BE, the Supreme Court will vote to overrule Roe.

REMINDER: the Democratic House, Senate and Presidency could stop this with ONE LAW, TODAY.

BURN IT ALL DOWN.https://t.co/7po0wpCv8v

— Elizabeth C. McLaughlin (she/her) (@ECMcLaughlin) May 3, 2022

And here is another.

I feel sick about the roe v Wade thing. We were warned this would happen. Burn it all to the ground

— kayla (@SP00KYSPlCE) May 3, 2022

Not to be outdone, one particularly crazed leftist suggested that it is time to “burn everything to the ground”.

The Supreme Court. Roe V Wade. The sky has fallen. It’s a draft? Right. Now we burn everything to the ground. Scorched earth. #SCOTUS #MyBodyMyChoice #BlueVoices https://t.co/ZNUqCxKwpG

— Chrisoula Baikos#GoodTrouble (@SOEAtlanta) May 3, 2022

You can see even more examples of what I am talking about here, here and here.

We are going to witness a national temper tantrum of epic proportions, but most of those that are upset actually live in blue states where access to abortion will continue on as normal.

And even in the reddest of the red states most abortions that happen now will still be permitted.

If anyone should be infuriated, it should be those on the pro-life side of the debate. Because if we keep going down the road that we are currently on, there isn’t going to be an America.

Since Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973, more than 60 million babies have been “terminated”.

Their blood is crying out for justice, but at this point only a small minority of Americans actually want Roe to be overturned.

***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

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