The Economic Collapse

Commercial Oil Inventories Are “Depleting Very Fast” And Global Supply Chain Stress Is Spiking

2026-05-19T20:05:06Z

We are watching a slow-motion train wreck play out right in front of our eyes, and nobody can stop it. Every single day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, commercial oil inventories will get even lower and national strategic oil reserves will get even lower. Right now the global economy is using more oil than it is producing, and everyone agrees that we are reaching a major crisis point.

Unfortunately, we may arrive at that major crisis point even sooner than many experts were originally projecting.

The head of the International Energy Agency is warning that commercial oil inventories are “depleting very fast”…

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the tally of commercial oil inventories is shrinking at an accelerated pace.

“I think it is depleting very fast,” he told reporters at the sidelines of a meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers in Paris, echoing comments from last week. It will be “several weeks, but we should be aware of the fact that it is declining rapidly,” he said.

He also highlighted that the spike in fertilizer and diesel prices comes at the start of the travel and planting season.

“This could have major implications for the food prices and together with the higher energy prices they might give a big push to inflation numbers,” he said.

Once the cushion that we are running through now is gone, energy prices will go completely nuts and we will see widespread rationing and shortages.

In fact, we are already beginning to experience a shortage of motor oil.

This is something that I wrote about yesterday, and today CNN issued a major report about this…

Wholesale motor oil prices are rising rapidly, and some industry executives are warning of imminent shortages caused by the war with Iran.

Damage to key facilities in the Middle East and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz have combined to create a perfect storm in this tiny but critical corner of the oil market.

The risk is that some of the most popular kinds of motor oil will be in very short supply, forcing drivers to delay getting their oil changed or rely on suboptimal lubricants.

“We’re looking at shortages — I have no doubt in my mind,” Holly Alfano, CEO of the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA), an industry trade group, told CNN. “It’s a big mess — and it’s not going to be resolved quickly. It could take a year or so before we see any real relief.”

We all use motor oil, and so this is going to hurt.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has thrown global supply chains for motor oil into a state of complete and utter chaos…

The motor oil situation is another reminder of the fragile nature of global supply chains.

The problem is that almost half (44%) of the most important base oil used to make motor oil, known as Group III, comes from just three Persian Gulf producers, according to ILMA.

Those Middle East supplies have been derailed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the war started in late February.

Not only that, but Pearl GTL, the world’s largest gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant located in Qatar, was attacked and seriously damaged in Iran. That means one of the leading suppliers of Group III base oils has been knocked offline indefinitely.

Can you imagine paying $200 for an oil change?

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, that is not inconceivable.

Of course countless other supply chains have been severely disrupted as well, and global supply chain stress is absolutely soaring as a result…

One week after Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warned CNBC of a “new wake-up call” for global trade amid the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and a deepening energy crisis that could intensify further in June, UBS analysts are out with a new note telling clients they have “reactivated” their Global Supply Chain Stress Index in response to increasingly alarming signals emerging across global logistics networks.

“Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic,” UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade wrote in a note on Sunday.

Lafourcade explained that global supply chain stress is emerging quickly, with the index rising by 1.2 standard deviations in March and April, the second-largest two-month jump since July 2020.

Slowly but surely, the consequences of this crisis are starting to filter their way through the economy.

For example, more than 5,000 supply chain workers have already been laid off here in the United States…

A sweeping wave of layoffs and facility closures has hit the U.S. supply chain, with more than 5,183 workers affected across at least 20 states.

According to a report from FreightWaves by Noi Mahoney, the cuts stem from shutdowns, restructurings, customer contract losses, and operational consolidations in logistics, manufacturing, and transportation.

Major employers including FreshRealm, GEODIS, Ryder, and DSV have announced significant workforce reductions as companies seek to cut costs amid softening industrial demand.

Authorities have been trying to keep everyone calm.

But investors are starting to get really jittery.

In fact, Treasury bond yields are beginning to rise at a very alarming pace…

What the president hasn’t been able to do, however, is address the worrying rise in Treasury bond yields, which remain elevated heading into the Tuesday session. Benchmark 30-year bonds were trading near the highest levels since 2007 at 5.147%, and 10-year notes traded at a 15-month peak of 4.613%.

That could feed further into inflation pressures, which are already building as the economy holds firm, labor markets outperform, and government spending remains elevated from passage of last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

We desperately need the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened.

But if more fighting with Iran erupts, that is not going to happen for an extended period of time.

On Tuesday, President Trump warned that there will be “another big hit on Iran” if a peace deal is not reached…

President Donald Trump said he was considering “another big hit on Iran” just a day after he said he delayed possible strikes following progress on a possible deal to end the war.

“I hope that we don’t have to do the war. But we may have to give them another big hit,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday. “I’m not sure yet. You’ll know very soon.”

As I have detailed in previous articles, there is no way that the Iranians are going to agree to a deal that is acceptable to Trump.

So more bombing is coming, and Fox News is reporting that Israel is rapidly getting prepared for the next wave of airstrikes…

Israel is preparing to take part in a potential U.S. strike on Iran, despite President Donald Trump’s statement on May 18 that he had paused a planned attack, according to reports.

Citing officials, Israeli broadcaster Channel 12 reported Tuesday that officials also believe Trump’s announcement may have limited his options.

The officials suggested that unless Tehran presents a significantly improved proposal — which Israeli leaders consider unlikely — Trump may decide military action is unavoidable, the report says, according to The Times of Israel.

On Monday night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with top military officials for five hours.

Needless to say, this was not a casual gathering…

Last night’s limited security meeting convened by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lasted nearly five hours – with the IDF chief of staff, air force chief, head of military intelligence, head of the Operations Directorate, and other senior defense officials in attendance – to ensure full preparedness for the possibility of an American strike, the report says.

There is a general consensus among pundits in the western world that the Iranians will eventually back down if they experience enough pressure.

They believe that because they don’t understand the Iranians.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazen Gharibabadi has publicly stated that there are only two options for his nation…

“Iran, united and resolute, is prepared to confront any military aggression,” Gharibabadi wrote on X. “For us, surrender holds no meaning; we either triumph or become martyrs.”

In their eyes, agreeing to Trump’s terms would be surrender.

So that isn’t going to happen.

The Iranians have been feverishly preparing for the next round of the war, and they are warning that they are ready to use “new equipment and new methods”…

Iran’s army warned on Tuesday that it would “open new fronts” if the war resumed. “If the enemy is foolish enough to fall into the Zionist trap again, and launches new aggression against our beloved Iran, we will open new fronts against it, with new equipment and new methods,” said army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia, according to Iran’s ISNA news agency.

They keep issuing veiled threats like this.

I am convinced that what they are hinting at is the use of unconventional weapons.

Of course if Iran crosses that line, the U.S and Israel will likely cross that line as well.

We are so close to an apocalyptic scenario in the Middle East, and most people in the western world have no idea.

Meanwhile, economic conditions are crumbling all around us, and we are going to see some absolutely crazy things happen in the months ahead.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing. You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter. Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites. These are such troubled times, and people need hope. John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.” If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

The post Commercial Oil Inventories Are “Depleting Very Fast” And Global Supply Chain Stress Is Spiking appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Fact Or Fiction: Is There Going To Be A Motor Oil Shortage In The United States?

2026-05-18T20:14:53Z

There have been persistent rumors that industry insiders are bracing for a widespread shortage of motor oil. Are these rumors accurate? I decided that I was going to investigate this and discover the truth. Unfortunately, I have very bad news. Multiple sources within the industry are confirming that we are facing much higher prices and physical shortages of certain products if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon.

I realize that what I have just shared is not welcome news, but it isn’t going to do any good to stick our heads in the sand.

According to Axios, supply chains for lighter-viscosity synthetic oils are particularly vulnerable, and one industry insider is warning that “actual shortages are starting to appear”…

Industry groups and analysts say lighter-viscosity synthetic oils — including 0W-8, 0W-16 and certain 0W-20 grades commonly used in newer vehicles — are most vulnerable to disruption.
“Actual shortages are starting to appear” for some synthetic oil products, Amanda Hay, global lead for base oils at ICIS, told Axios, adding that “security of supply is the chief concern for industry players.”

What we are experiencing now is the leading edge of this crisis.

An internal memo that was apparently meant for AutoZone stores in the Southeast region got leaked to the public, and it is causing a great deal of concern…

Over the past week, reports about looming motor oil shortages have started popping up from multiple directions. The most pointed of them surfaced today, when a person posted what looks like an internal memo to the Southeast region of AutoZone stores.

In the memo, the writer says, “Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category [lubricating fluids] to drop by 40%.” That figure continues to pop up, and it basically means one thing. Oil changes, transmission fluid changes, really anything that lubricates your car is about to get more expensive. We reached out to AutoZone for comment, but haven’t received a reply at the time of writing.

So far, AutoZone has not confirmed or denied that the memo is real or not.

But what local repair shop owners are hearing appears to confirm that big trouble is brewing…

Shops on the ground are already bracing for it. Speaking to a local repair store here in Little Rock, Arkansas, a general manager tells Carscoops that “They are being very secretive about all that. They say the price is for sure gonna go up, but they don’t know how the mainline volume will be affected yet.”

Another shop owner in DC said on Monday that Mobil and Shell informed Costco and Walmart that they’re out of product to ship. Later that same day, he posted what appears to be a bulletin focused on managing supply chain issues. Guidance included partially substituting 0W-8 oil with 0W-16 and then doing the same for 0W-16 with 0W-20. These are just the most recent and easily accessible examples of the current concern.

What I have shared so far is certainly alarming enough.

But now Toyota and Nissan are both openly warning their service departments that shortages are on the way…

Rising fuel prices are not the only petroleum-related problem facing drivers this summer. According to internal service bulletins reportedly tied to Toyota and Nissan, automakers are now preparing for potential shortages of certain motor oils as global supply chain pressure spreads beyond gasoline and diesel.

The issue primarily affects low-viscosity synthetic oils like 0W-8 and 0W-16, which are commonly used in newer hybrid and fuel-efficient engines. These lightweight oils have become increasingly important as automakers chase tighter emissions standards and better fuel economy numbers, especially in hybrid-heavy lineups like Toyota’s.

Toyota is instructing their dealers to temporarily substitute heavier oil grades if necessary…

According to the leaked Toyota bulletin, the company warned service departments that 0W-8 and 0W-16 oils could become difficult to source due to production and logistics constraints affecting the petrochemical industry.

To manage inventories, Toyota reportedly instructed dealers to occasionally substitute heavier oil grades for certain service intervals. The guidance specifically notes that these substitutions are intended only as temporary measures rather than permanent changes to maintenance schedules.

And it is being reported that Nissan is warning their dealers to “expect oil allocations limited to roughly 55% of prior-year supply levels”…

Nissan’s draft bulletin reportedly warned dealers to expect oil allocations limited to roughly 55% of prior-year supply levels. The company later confirmed the authenticity of the document, although it stated the memo itself had not yet been officially distributed across the dealer network.

The shortage concerns are not isolated to one automaker, either. Nissan’s customer communication draft specifically stated the supply issue is affecting the entire automotive industry rather than only Nissan-branded service departments.

Clearly, there is widespread expectation that at least certain types of motor oil will be in short supply throughout the rest of this year.

So I would encourage you to stock up while you still can.

Meanwhile, the largest budget airline in Europe is bracing for an “Armageddon situation” due to a looming shortage of jet fuel…

Europe’s biggest budget airline has warned weaker carriers could collapse under soaring jet fuel costs as the industry braces for what one executive described as a possible ‘Armageddon situation’.

Ryanair finance chief Neil Sorahan said the airline has contingency plans in place as fears grow over fuel shortages and surging oil prices linked to instability in the Middle East and disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

‘Do we have plans for some kind of Armageddon situation? Of course we do,’ Sorahan told CNBC.

I don’t think that this will be a major problem in the United States yet.

Asia and Europe will be the first to experience a serious lack of jet fuel.

But one thing we are already experiencing in the United States is much higher gasoline prices…

US gas prices have gone up, and up, and up since the country bombed Iran in late February. In March, I reported that the average price of gas in the country had gone up from $2.89/gallon to $3.48/gallon. Now, the average price of gas in the US is $4.517/gallon. That’s a 56% increase in the price of gasoline since the US bombed Iran!

Read the last sentence of that quote again.

A 56 percent increase in just a matter of weeks is insane.

Sadly, things will only get worse if the fighting in the Middle East resumes.

Retired Army General Jack Keane has close ties to the Trump administration, and he just told Fox News that “we’re on the cusp of going back into military operations”…

“Where are we? The president has exhibited a huge amount of patience here since the ceasefire on April the 8th. And we’ve tried to work a deal with these guys, and it just doesn’t seem possible. And where we are, we’re on the cusp of going back into military operations. When we stopped. Bill and Dana, we had two weeks to go, a little less than 30% of the targets. Those targets remain, but we have better intelligence now, after these five, six weeks. So that target list is expanded. It’s considerably more comprehensive,” he continued. “It’ll be a combined operation with the United States and Israel going full throttle, all out, no half measures here whatsoever. And when those target lists are complete and they will consist of the rest of the weapons that are remaining, to indicate some of what you just mentioned, to include what remains of nuclear, and also all the organizations that sustain the regime. We have better intelligence on locations and other things associated with that, and certainly they’re going to be a comprehensive target list in of itself, and then a grouping of targets that really deal with all of Iran’s revenue sources to force an economic collapse of the regime. Obviously, Kharg Island blockade is having significant impact. But this attack will even further aggravate their ability to gain revenue source. Without revenue, it’s hard to see how this regime can survive. So we put it on a path.”

I believe that General Keane is correct.

I believe that we are right on the brink of more fighting.

On Sunday, President Trump reportedly met with his national security team in the White House Situation Room…

Axios’s Barak Ravid broke the news amid a flurry of new speculation that President Donald Trump will likely move toward resumed military operations against Iran this week if the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit hub, is not swiftly reopened.

“U.S. officials say President Trump wants a deal to end the war, but is considering resuming it due to Iran’s rejection of many of his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program,” Ravid reported, citing U.S. officials.

Trump warned on Sunday that “the clock is ticking” for Iran to make a deal and threatened “there won’t be anything left of them” if they don’t do so “FAST.” Axios also broke the news on Sunday that Trump will meet with his top national security officials in the White House Situation Room to discuss the next steps in possibly resuming the war. Ravid added in his report: “The senior U.S. official said that if Iran doesn’t shift its position, the U.S. will have to continue the negotiations ‘through bombs.’”

Also on Sunday, Trump posted the following map on his Truth Social account…

What are Iranian leaders thinking when they see something like that?

If there was any hope left for a peace agreement, Trump should not be posting an image that suggests that Iran is about to be attacked from all sides.

On Monday, Trump posted a message on his Truth Social account which openly admitted that he had been planning to order an attack on Iran on Tuesday…

Of course the truth is that there isn’t going to be a deal.

The Iranians are not even willing to talk about their nuclear program at this point, and they are insisting that the U.S. agree to five key demands before they will even sit back down at the table…

Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon
Lifting all sanctions
Releasing frozen Iranian assets
Compensation for war damages and losses
Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz

President Trump will never agree to these demands.

And the Iranians will never give President Trump what he wants.

So it appears to be inevitable that more military conflict is coming, and the Iranians are warning that they have new “surprises” in store for us…

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Monday that Tehran is continuing to “pursue diplomacy with seriousness,” but that the Islamic Republic “will not be subdued by contradictory behavior and threats from the opposing side.”

“We are fully prepared for every scenario,” he said, warning that, “in the event of any reckless action we will respond with full strength, and I assure you that our armed forces will definitely have new ‘surprises’ for the enemy.”

The bottom line is that the Strait of Hormuz is not going to be reopened any time soon.

So there will be rationing and there will be shortages.

And the entire global economy is entering a major downturn.

We really are facing a nightmare scenario, and most of the general population still has no clue.

The post Fact Or Fiction: Is There Going To Be A Motor Oil Shortage In The United States? appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Americans Are Getting Behind On Their Debts At A Very Frightening Pace

2026-05-14T20:29:39Z

U.S. households are now 18.79 trillion dollars in debt. In 1980, U.S. households were just 1.4 trillion dollars in debt. Over the past several decades we have witnessed a household debt binge that is unlike anything that we have ever witnessed in our entire history. But if consumers could handle that debt load, there wouldn’t be such a high level of concern. Unfortunately, just like we witnessed prior to the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, Americans are getting behind on their debts at a staggering rate. This isn’t going to end well, but of course many of you know that already.

The latest numbers published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show that delinquency rates for auto loans, student loans and credit card debt have all soared to very alarming levels…

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) published new data showing that the share of Americans behind on a range of household consumer debts reached all-time highs in the first quarter of 2026. As the nation hurdles toward an historical record of $19 trillion in total household debt, Americans saw the highest rates of auto loan delinquency that FRBNY has ever recorded, rates of credit card delinquency near those last seen at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, and student loan delinquency at its worst since before the COVID-era payment pause.

Thanks to our accelerating cost of living crisis, most U.S. households are barely scraping by from month to month these days.

So if you are feeling financially squeezed right now, I want you to know that you are not alone.

As financial pressure rises, an increasing number of households are reaching a breaking point.

As a result, we are beginning to witness a tsunami of delinquencies…

While families took on more debt, they also fell behind. Credit card delinquency rates are now the highest they have been in 16 years (13.1 percent). Overall student loan delinquency rates soared to 10.3 percent, the highest recorded since 2020. Significantly more student loan borrowers are also entering serious delinquency, with their loans more than 90 days past due (10.9 percent) compared to the first quarter of 2025 (8.0 percent). In fact, delinquency rates have increased for all credit types tracked by the FRBNY since the final quarter of 2025.

Those figures are deeply troubling.

And I haven’t even mentioned mortgages yet.

In April, there were more than 42,000 foreclosure filings…

New data released by real estate analytics firm ATTOM found that 42,430 properties nationwide received foreclosure filings in April 2026, including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions.

Is that a high number?

Yes, it is.

In fact, it is 18 percent higher than last year’s very high figure for the month of April…

Foreclosure filings across the US have surged 18 percent compared to last year in a troubling sign that mounting financial pressure is beginning to hit homeowners.

It is a red flag that is reminiscent of the foreclosure spike in the run up to the 2008 Great Recession – that financial pressure is mounting for thousands of families.

Many of you clearly remember that we experienced a growing wave of foreclosures well before the financial markets started to crash in late 2008.

It was obvious that the housing bubble was crashing way in advance, and we can see the same thing happening again.

In Seattle, the number of homes listed for sale is nearly twice the usual figure, and prices are beginning to fall…

There are 8,630 homes listed for sale across the Seattle metro right now. In a normal April, there are about 4,600.

Nick Gerli, CEO of the real estate analytics firm Reventure, posted that data on Sunday on X. His read: Seattle’s housing market is going through a historic inventory shock, driven by layoffs, historic unaffordability, and outbound migration. King County values are already down 2.5% year over year. Prices are falling, and a typical listing is still right around $1 million, with a monthly mortgage payment of $7,000 to $8,000. That’s $84,000 to $96,000 a year just on the mortgage. The median household income across the Seattle metro is about $112,000 before taxes. After federal and state deductions, that household is taking home somewhere around $85,000 to $90,000. The mortgage alone consumes virtually all of it.

The market is cracking. Regular people still can’t afford to buy.

Yes, the market in Seattle is most definitely cracking.

And the same thing could be said about dozens of other markets all over the nation.

It is inevitable that home prices will fall because we have reached a point where most of the population simply cannot afford a typical mortgage payment.

In our “K-shaped economy”, those at the very top have been thriving while the vast majority of the country has been deeply struggling.

Sadly, there are a lot of young adults out there that have simply stopped trying.

This is particularly true for young men, and the numbers clearly show that millions upon millions of them have chosen to drop out of the labor force…

The Department of Labor keeps careful track of employment and the demographics thereof. Their latest report on men in the labor force is both mysterious and deeply alarming. It turns out that the labor force is missing about 7 million men who would otherwise be working. Close to a third of working-age men have vanished from the labor force.

The labor force participation rate among “prime age men,” age 25 to 54, in the 1950s approached 100 percent. Now it is 89 percent, meaning roughly 11 percent are not in the labor force (neither working nor looking for work).

Among all men over 16 years of age, the rate is a devastatingly low 66 percent, so about one-third are gone. Among U.S.-born men, nearly 22 percent are gone.

This is really quite shocking.

We really do have a national crisis on our hands.

The number of homeless Americans is at an all-time high.

Most of them are men.

The number of drug addicts in our country is at an all-time high.

Most of them are men.

So many people have been falling through the cracks in the system, and it seems to get worse with each passing year.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of households are falling behind on their debts and America’s middle class is steadily shrinking.

All of the long-term trends are taking us in the wrong direction, and it appears that our economic problems will only accelerate during the months ahead.

The post Americans Are Getting Behind On Their Debts At A Very Frightening Pace appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

The War With Iran Is Increasing Costs For U.S. Businesses, And The Price Hikes We Have Seen So Far Are Just The Beginning

2026-05-13T20:01:09Z

Many have argued that energy is the central pillar of our economy, because it requires energy for just about anything to get done in our modern world. It takes energy to make stuff, it takes energy to move stuff, and it even takes energy to entertain ourselves. The war with Iran has dramatically increased energy costs for businesses of all types, and those costs are starting to get passed along to consumers. As a result, our standard of living is going down. If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon, the change in our standard of living will be the largest that any of us have ever experienced.

We live at a time when economic dissatisfaction is already at very alarming levels.

In fact, a recent YouGov/Economist survey discovered that the number of Americans that believe that economic conditions are getting worse is nearly four times higher than the number of Americans that believe that economic conditions are improving…

A new YouGov/Economist poll found that 59% say the economy is getting worse, while just 15% say it’s improving. More than two-thirds of Americans say the country feels “out of control.”

These depressing numbers are the result of many years of economic deterioration.

At first, a lot of people out there wanted to deny that the U.S. economy was in decline, but now the truth is becoming apparent to everyone.

Unfortunately, the crisis in the Middle East is threatening to make our economic problems a whole lot worse.

We are being told that the shocking inflation numbers that we just got are a result of “the war with Iran”…

Wednesday’s Producer Price Index report showed the war with Iran is raising costs for US businesses at a rate not seen in nearly four years, increasing the likelihood that companies will pass on those higher costs to consumers.

PPI, a measure of wholesale inflation, increased in April to 6% on an annual basis from 4% in March, well exceeding economists’ expectations. On a monthly basis, the index increased 1.4%, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s twice the pace that economists expected. It’s also the second-largest monthly gain dating back to the index’s inception in 2010.

A 15.6% increase in gas prices accounted for 40% of the increase in prices businesses paid last month. That only looks to be getting worse with oil prices yet to reach their peak levels and global inventories falling at a record pace, according to a report released Wednesday by the International Energy Agency.

Without a doubt, we could certainly survive a few months of this.

But if the crisis in the Middle East drags on for many more months, we truly will be in unprecedented territory, because at some point there simply won’t be enough oil for everyone.

Over the past couple of months, the global economy has been functioning fairly normally because we have been running through existing inventory levels and strategic reserves.

However, it we continue going down this road we could be facing “operational stress levels” by early next month…

If the Middle East war doesn’t end quickly, the world — including the Group of 7 developed nations that have relied on their ample oil reserves — “will start facing scarcity,” warned Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote. And analysts at J.P. Morgan recently said that developed countries’ commercial crude stocks could be close to operational stress levels by early June.

You see, the truth is that we are running an “oil deficit” right now.

We are consuming far more than we are producing, and existing inventory levels and strategic reserves are being depleted.

At this stage, total OPEC production is down over 30 percent from pre-war levels…

OPEC production fell by 1.7 million bpd in April after output plunged by 7.9 million bpd in March. In total, production among OPEC members has dropped more than 30%, or 9.7 million bpd, during the war.

The update Wednesday from OPEC will likely be the last one to include data from the United Arab Emirates, which left the cartel on May 1.

The total supply loss from the Gulf oil producers now exceeds a billion barrels with more than 14 million bpd shut down due to the Hormuz closure, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest update published Wednesday

Okay, so let’s assume for a moment that the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow.

OPEC production cannot fully return to pre-war levels because a lot of infrastructure has either been damaged or destroyed.

It will literally take years for all of that infrastructure to be repaired or rebuilt.

Of course there is quite a bit of infrastructure that remains intact, but even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow it would still take weeks for commercial traffic in the Persian Gulf to return to normal…

Analysts at Morgan Stanley on Monday said that oil markets are in a “race against time,” as the combination of factors that have been in place to curb crude-price jolts will fray if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed through June.

And once the conflict ends and tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, it would still take weeks for flows to resume, and markets likely will still price in risk of potential additional disruptions.

Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled oil giant Saudi Aramco cautioned Monday that if the strait remains closed for weeks further, a market rebalance likely will extend into 2027 and “oil supply challenges” will continue.

Of course the Strait of Hormuz is not going to reopen tomorrow.

Or the next day.

Or the day after that.

In fact, the Strait of Hormuz may remain closed for a very long time.

The reason why global markets have not crashed yet is because most investors are anticipating that there will be a quick end to the war.

But what if they are wrong?

When people start realizing that there isn’t going to be a quick fix, global markets will be shaken.

And just like we witnessed during the early days of the last pandemic, there will be panic buying. Many Americans don’t realize this, but we have already seen this happen in some parts of the world…

In scenes reminiscent of pandemic-era panic buying, South Koreans rushed to buy plastic rubbish bags after the Iran war led to the closure of the strait, disrupting global supply chains.

Australians cleared the shelves of jerry cans as drivers and farmers vied to stock up on fuel in rural areas. Social media posts on possible shortages of condoms went viral in China last month.

In just a matter of weeks, shortages will start to become quite noticeable.

Asia will be hit the hardest, because they are more dependent on commodities from the Middle East than anyone else.

For example, a shortage of naphtha has already forced the largest snack producer in Japan to switch to black-and-white packaging…

Japan’s biggest snack maker has been forced to use black-and-white packaging for some flagship products because of ink ingredient shortages caused by the strait of Hormuz blockade.

Calbee, whose potato chip brands in particular are known for brightly coloured bag designs, said 14 of its products would switch to monochrome branding by the end of May.

Thousands upon thousands of supply chains are being threatened by this crisis.

Most people in the western world have absolutely no idea what is really going on out there, and for the moment ignorance is bliss.

But if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for several more months, the entire world will clearly be feeling the pain of shortages and rapidly rising prices.

The post The War With Iran Is Increasing Costs For U.S. Businesses, And The Price Hikes We Have Seen So Far Are Just The Beginning appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

If You Think Prices Are High Now, Just Wait Until The Shortages Really Start Kicking In

2026-05-12T19:42:12Z

On Monday morning, the front page of the Drudge Report featured a very alarming two word headline in all capital letters: “INFLATION ACCELERATES”. Of course that headline was 100% accurate. Prices are rising and our seemingly endless cost of living crisis is beginning to accelerate once again. I have heard from many of you that are not happy with what economic conditions are like now, and you are really not going to be happy with what is going to happen during the months to come. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already begun to create shortages all over the globe. As the months roll along, those shortages will steadily intensify. That is going to directly affect our cost of living, because the law of supply and demand tells us that when there is less stuff to buy prices go up. So the truth is that inflation will go to an entirely new level once the shortages caused by the crisis in the Middle East really start kicking in.

Needless to say, in many industries prices have already risen to absolutely absurd levels.

This week, I was stunned to learn that a large bucket of chicken at KFC now costs close to 50 bucks…

When I was growing up, KFC was a place where you could feed your family inexpensively.

But now only the wealthy can afford to go to KFC on a regular basis.

These days, many families just stay home and don’t go much of anywhere because the price of gasoline is so high…

Amid concerns over the economic fallout from the war, the average price of gasoline in the United States has climbed to more than $4.55 per gallon, up more than $1.50 since the war began.

Where I live, many people are spending over a hundred dollars just to fill up their vehicles a single time.

But in California things are much worse.

Some residents of Los Angeles are now paying more than 8 dollars for a gallon of gasoline, and the outlook for the months ahead is extremely bleak because politicians in California have been thumbing their noses at our domestic oil industry for years…

A supertanker docked in Long Beach just delivered California’s last incoming shipment of Middle Eastern oil, a grim milestone for drivers already paying the nation’s highest fuel prices.

After the New Corolla fully discharges its Iraqi oil at the berth, another tanker carrying Middle Eastern crude won’t dock in California until months after the Strait of Hormuz waterway reopens, according to market intelligence firms Vortexa and Kpler.

For California, the economic pain of the Iran war will last well beyond the arrival of the next tankers. U.S. drillers have fled the state and dozens of refineries have closed since the mid-1980s, forcing California to import 75% of the oil it consumes. Almost one-third of that comes from the Middle East, making California more reliant on crude-oil shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates than any other U.S. state.

When fuel shortages begin to pop up in the United States, it is likely that they will start in California.

But that won’t happen right away.

Asia and Europe will experience supply shocks before we do, and Eric Nuttall is warning that we could start to see oil rationing “within weeks”…

Energy expert and investor Eric Nuttall predicted in early May that the world was heading toward what may be the “largest energy crisis in modern history,” one that could spark oil rationing “within weeks” – and with the two-week mark now fast approaching, observers across the political spectrum began expressing alarm on Monday.

“We’re not talking months or quarters. In the next couple of weeks, you will have to rationalize demand by more than during COVID,” Nuttall told Bloomberg on May 1. “This is by far the biggest energy crisis that anybody alive is experiencing. There remains a lot of apathy in the market, because I just don’t think people can wrap their heads around it.”

I very much agree with that last sentence.

It truly is difficult for a lot of people out there to wrap their heads around what is about to happen.

But the truth is that the pain has already begun.

On Sunday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told his country that it is time to start conserving fuel and fertilizer…

India on Sunday became the latest country to call for sacrifices, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi asking his country’s 1.4 billion residents to conserve fuel and fertilizer, two essential goods usually shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. He also told them to cut back on foreign travel.

Over the past couple of months, the world has been running an oil deficit.

We have been able to keep things going by running down our inventory levels and our strategic reserves, but now we are rapidly approaching a breaking point.

There simply is not going to be enough fuel for everyone, and supplies of jet fuel are particularly low…

Growing anxieties around the jet fuel shortage caused by the Iran war have rocked the travel industry.

Tony Fernandes, chief executive of Air Asia, said last week: “I thought I’d seen it all with Covid […] but having seen jet fuel go up almost three times — this is much worse.”

It comes after supplies for jet fuel have tumbled to their lowest level since records began, as the war blocks crucial shipping lanes for fuel.

Of course we will soon be facing very serious shortages of other vital commodities as well.

In fact, such shortages have already started to emerge…

Also in India, some restaurants have warned they’ll be forced to close due to a shortage of cooking gas, and factories in the country’s plentiful ceramics industry have halted production as natural gas shortages impact kiln operations.

Qatar, which accounts for about one-third of the world’s helium supply, stopped producing helium in March after Iranian strikes hit two liquid natural gas facilities, and the resulting shortage threatens the operation of MRI machines and the manufacturing of artificial intelligence chips, smartphones and electric vehicles.

Also needed for AI chip manufacturing is tungsten, a metal with extreme heat resistance and electrical conductivity that also makes it critical for armor-piercing munitions, which the U.S. and Israel are using quickly in the war, burning through American tungsten stocks.

The war is also heavily impacting the world’s supply of sulfur, much of which comes from Persian Gulf oil refineries, which is used across industries to grow food, make toothpaste, balance drink flavors and treat municipal water.

If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon, we will be facing the greatest global supply chain shock that any of us have ever experienced.

I do not say that lightly.

The commodities that come out of the Middle East are absolutely essential to the functioning of the global economy.

Now thousands upon thousands of intricate supply chains are being disrupted, and conditions are going to continue to get worse every single day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

The post If You Think Prices Are High Now, Just Wait Until The Shortages Really Start Kicking In appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Nearly 400 Earthquakes Rock Southern California – Will A Cataclysmic Seismic Event Soon Rip The San Andreas Fault Wide Open?

2026-05-11T19:56:58Z

One day it will happen. As millions of people living in Southern California go about their daily lives, a cataclysmic earthquake will suddenly strike. The geography of the California coastline will be permanently changed, and the ground on the western side of the San Andreas fault will drop by several feet. Since much of Southern California is just barely above sea level, the Pacific Ocean will start rushing in. What I have just shared with you is not the plot to some really bad disaster movie. As I have documented repeatedly over the years, this is a scenario that scientists are telling us will happen someday. Millions of lives will be at risk when “the Big One” finally strikes. Could it be possible that “the Big One” will strike a lot sooner than most people think?

The shaking that we have witnessed over the past 72 hours has been extremely alarming.

On Saturday, the city of Brawley was rocked by more than 150 earthquakes…

A reported earthquake swarm rattled Imperial County on Saturday, with over 150 recorded quakes in the city of Brawley, south of the Salton Sea — including one 4.5 magnitude.

The United States Geological Survey has recorded at least 29 quakes over 2.5 magnitude, but well over 150 earthquakes total, including small ones, have been recorded on Saturday, according to the Caltech Seismological Laboratory.

Unfortunately, it didn’t stop there.

The shaking continued throughout the night and into the next day.

On Sunday, Brawley continued to experience constant earthquakes. This included a magnitude 4.0 quake, a magnitude 4.4 quake, a magnitude 4.5 quake, and a magnitude 4.7 quake…

More than 150 earthquakes were recorded during the earlier phase of the swarm, totaling close to 400 by 08:00 UTC on May 11. The sequence was centered near Brawley and the southern Salton Sea region within the Brawley Seismic Zone.

The M4.7 earthquake was registered at 07:10 UTC on May 10, at a depth of 14 km (8.7 miles), according to the USGS, which received nearly 200 reports of people who felt it. Shaking was felt across parts of Imperial County and elsewhere in Southern California.

Additional notable earthquakes reported during the sequence included an M4.5 at 03:39 UTC on May 10, an M4.4 at 02:22 UTC on May 10, and an M4.0 at 03:13 UTC on May 10.

The total number of earthquakes in this multi-day swarm is approaching 400, and the shaking still hasn’t stopped.

In fact, there have been more earthquakes in Southern California just within the past hour.

I have no idea why this isn’t getting more attention from the big news networks, because this is an extremely unusual multi-day event.

One woman that lives in the area said that the earthquakes “just kept on coming and coming and coming and coming”…

“I was just scared. All of a sudden, it was a big jolt, and everything started moving. I was like, ‘Holy crud.’ They just kept on coming and coming and coming and coming. And as we’re speaking right now, I do feel it rumbling beneath me.” Kathleen Singh said.

If the ground in a particular area keeps shaking for several days in a row, that should get our attention.

At times, multiple earthquakes have been hitting within a single minute…

This earthquake swarm has erupted right in the middle of the Brawley Seismic Zone in Imperial Valley.

The Brawley Seismic Zone connects the Imperial Fault to the San Andreas Fault.

And that is the one that we really want to watch.

Will this swarm of hundreds of earthquakes trigger activity along the San Andreas Fault?

Hopefully not.

But it certainly isn’t a good sign that some small quakes have been registered directly along the San Andreas Fault within the past hour.

And this entire week has been a very active time for seismic activity in California…

In fact, this past week in general has been active with earthquakes in the Golden State, stretching from the North Coast down through the Inland Empire and into the Imperial Valley.

Within the past 7 days, 1,334 earthquakes have been recorded in California and Nevada.

But as long as buildings aren’t falling down and people aren’t dying, most people outside of the affected areas won’t pay much attention.

Unfortunately, “the Big One” is going to happen sooner rather than later.

In my latest book, I have an entire chapter dedicated to the great earthquake that is coming to Southern California.

The following is a short excerpt from that chapter…

If the San Andreas fault does rupture all at once, scientists have warned us that it could produce an earthquake that would be powerful enough to cause the ground on the western side of the San Andreas fault to suddenly drop several feet. Since most of southern California is just barely above sea level, that would allow water from the Pacific Ocean to come pouring in.

Can you imagine the kind of death and destruction that such a disaster would cause?

It would look like much of the southern California coast had just gone into the Pacific Ocean, but actually the Pacific Ocean would suddenly be covering vast stretches of the coast that have now dropped several feet lower than they were previously.

Researchers tell us that similar catastrophes have actually happened along the west coast in the past, and it is just a matter of time before it happens again.

If you live in southern California, it critical for you to understand that it is just a matter of time before “the Big One” strikes.

I have been attempting to sound the alarm about what is going to happen for years, but of course most of those living in the region are not interested in such warnings.

Scientists have warned that the San Andreas Fault is way overdue for a major earthquake.

Once it finally becomes unstuck, it could suddenly rip wide open all at once.

When that day finally arrives, you won’t want to be living anywhere in Southern California.

Sadly, most people won’t believe warnings such as this until it actually happens.

At that point, it will be too late to do anything about it.

The post Nearly 400 Earthquakes Rock Southern California – Will A Cataclysmic Seismic Event Soon Rip The San Andreas Fault Wide Open? appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

The Crisis In The Strait Of Hormuz Is Causing A Shortage Of Diet Coke In India

2026-05-10T20:34:53Z

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a global supply chain nightmare that is unlike anything that we have seen before. As existing inventories and reserves of various resources are depleted, the consequences of this global supply chain nightmare will become more apparent. Asia is being hit the hardest, because Asia is much more dependent on commodities that are exported through the Strait of Hormuz than anyone else. In fact, the crisis in the Middle East is causing a shortage of Diet Coke in India right now. I never imagined that I would be writing about a shortage of Diet Coke in India in the middle of 2026, but this is how crazy things have become.

Experts are warning that next month is likely to be a major tipping point for global supply chains…

JP Morgan commodities analyst Natasha Kaneva warned in a note last week that oil inventories have acted as a “shock absorber” for the global economy. But it could reach “operational stress levels” across the OECD group of industrialised countries as soon as next month.

As well as oil and gas, experts are warning about rising prices and supply constraints for fertiliser, metals such as aluminium, and several chemicals that are crucial to modern manufacturing.

In previous articles, I have written much about what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the oil, natural gas and fertilizer markets.

Of course many others have also been talking about oil, natural gas and fertilizer.

But what a lot of people out there do not realize is that a significant portion of the world’s aluminum also comes out of the Middle East…

The Middle East’s access to cheap, abundant power is part of what has made it a hub for global aluminum production over the past few decades. Aluminum is derived from a reddish mineral called bauxite. The process of refining and smelting the stuff requires an immense amount of energy, so facilities tend to be located in places where it makes financial sense to do so. When Iran began restricting ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf plants struggled to both import raw materials and export pure aluminum. Facilities in Qatar and Bahrain reacted to the uncertainty by shutting down smelters. Then, on March 28, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched drone and missile attacks on two aluminum facilities in the region; the Al Taweelah plant in Abu Dhabi, which was responsible for making 1.6 million tons of the metal last year, has since been completely shut down. Those strikes led to a hold on about 3.2 million tons of the world’s aluminum—and a strain on economies, such as India’s, that draw from that supply.

Asia imports more aluminum from the region than anyone else.

Now that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, this is creating a major problem for Diet Coke drinkers in India, because Diet Coke only comes in aluminum cans in that nation…

But the shipping logjam in the Persian Gulf is also having unexpected impacts. In India, shops have struggled to keep Diet Coke on the shelves due to a shortage of aluminum cans.

Suppliers told the Reuters news agency that some orders were not being fulfilled due to a can shortage caused by the situation in the Gulf, which accounts for around 9% of global aluminum production. Diet Coke is not sold in plastic bottles in India, unlike most other countries, leaving fans of the drink at risk of losing out.

When something starts to get scarce, all of a sudden it becomes highly valued.

Just think about what happened during the early days of the last pandemic. When people started hearing reports that toilet paper was being hoarded, all of a sudden there was a mad scramble and people were filling up their entire shopping carts with it.

Well, a similar thing is taking place in India.

Diet Coke addicts are scrambling to secure what they will need for the months ahead, reports of empty shelves are everywhere, and tickets to a “Diet Coke party” were completely sold out…

For Gupta, a 25-year-old marketing and design consultant based in New Delhi, it was an opportunity for fun, so she decided to throw a party celebrating the drink.

“It was a joke,” said Gupta, describing herself as an “avid drinker” of Diet Coke. “I thought only me and two of my friends would show up.”

The party was a hit with Gen Zers, who she says are craving more alcohol-free experiences. Tickets were sold out, and attendees showed up wearing Coke-themed outfits, danced to house and pop music, and made their own Diet Coke “concoctions” inspired by Dua Lipa’s recipes. The pop star has posted videos on TikTok in which she adds pickle juice and pickled jalapeños to the drink.

Personally, I don’t understand why anyone would drink Diet Coke.

To me, it tastes horrible.

But there are millions upon millions of people out there that absolutely love the stuff.

Of course Diet Coke will not be the only thing that is in short supply during the months ahead.

Supplies of oil, natural gas, fertilizer, helium, plastic and many other important commodities will get tighter and tighter.

Over the past couple of months, we have been running through existing inventories and reserves.

But now the reality of what we are facing is starting to set in, and we are being warned that what we have experienced so far “may be only a foretaste of what is to come”…

The longer the waterway remains closed, the more emergency stocks of oil and other vital commodities are run down, with knock-on effects across the economy. Even if the channel were to reopen fully tomorrow it could take months for supply chains to return to normal.

More and more companies are having to acknowledge the possibility that vital inputs will run out. Some executives and analysts fear such reports of disruption and scarcity may be only a foretaste of what is to come.

The Iranians are making it exceedingly clear that they will simply not allow commercial traffic to flow freely through the Strait of Hormuz like it did before the war.

So either the rest of the world will have to adapt and built new infrastructure and new facilities elsewhere, or the rest of the world will have to try to force Iran to give up control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Either option would require a great deal of time.

Unfortunately, the global economy is running out of time because extremely severe supply chain disruptions are right around the corner.

The post The Crisis In The Strait Of Hormuz Is Causing A Shortage Of Diet Coke In India appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

Megadrought: We Just Experienced The Driest First Three Months Of A Year In U.S. History

2026-05-06T19:36:37Z

January, February and March were insanely dry. In fact, in all of U.S. history conditions have never been so dry during the first three months of the year. Just think about that for a moment. Not even during the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s were conditions this dry. Many were hoping that 2026 would be the year when our multi-year drought would finally break. Needless to say, that hasn’t happened. Scientists are telling us that the southwestern U.S. is in the midst of the worst multi-year drought in at least 1,200 years. We really are experiencing a “megadrought”, and this is something that experts such as Steve Quayle and Dane Wigington have been talking about for a long time. Unfortunately, it appears that our seemingly endless “megadrought” has gone to an entirely new level in 2026.

If it simply doesn’t rain, there is not much that farmers and ranchers can do.

Right now approximately 63 percent of the continental United States is experiencing at least some level of drought, and the first quarter of this year was one for the record books…

Winter wheat is dying in Kansas fields that should be green by now. Ranchers in New Mexico are selling cattle they cannot afford to feed. Reservoir levels along the Colorado River system are dropping weeks ahead of the season when mountain snowmelt is supposed to refill them. Across roughly 63% of the contiguous United States, drought rated moderate to exceptional on the federal scale has taken hold, and the first three months of 2026 were the driest the nation has recorded in 131 years of continuous measurement.

This isn’t just a crisis.

This is catastrophic.

It appears that the winter wheat crop in the U.S. is going to be a disaster.

At this stage, more than 81 percent of the Southern Plains is experiencing drought…

Heading into the harvesting season for the key winter wheat crop, much of the western side of the U.S. Plains are locked in drought. Over 81% of Southern Plains is experiencing some form of drought, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Nearly 20% of the region is experiencing either “extreme” or “exceptional” drought.

Only 30% of U.S. winter wheat is in either good or excellent condition as of the start of this week, according to the most recent weekly Crop Progress report from the Department of Agriculture. By comparison, 49% of the crop was good-or-excellent at this point last year.

The situation is particularly dire in the state of Oklahoma.

Last year, the state produced 101.1 million bushels of red winter wheat.

Thanks to the drought, it is being projected that the state will produce less than half of that total this year…

At the 2026 Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association meeting, crop scouts, extension specialists, and grain elevator representatives painted a sobering picture of this year’s hard red winter wheat crop. Their estimates say the 2026 crop is roughly half the size of the previous two years, with production projected at 48.9 million bushels compared to 101.1 million bushels in 2025. The outlook is based on an average yield of 23.93 bushels per acre across an expected 2.043 million harvested acres, highlighting the significant downturn facing Oklahoma wheat producers.

When there is a lot less wheat to go around, prices will go up.

It is simply a matter of supply and demand.

One farmer that grows winter wheat in Kansas is saying that his farm has only had a quarter of an inch of precipitation since last fall…

Southwest Kansas farmer Gary Millershaski says his area has only received a quarter-of-an-inch of precipitation since last fall. “For us to get a 30-bushel crop, you’ve really got to be optimistic and believe in prayer. That’s a fact.”

He has done everything right, but the sky has been silent.

What is he supposed to do?

So far in 2026, Chicago wheat futures are up about 30 percent…

Chicago wheat futures have gained nearly 30% since the start of the year — the biggest gain among row crop futures — due to the combination of U.S. drought, global fertilizer shortages and a looming El Niño.

If this crisis in the Middle East is not resolved, this will only be just the beginning.

Once upon a time, the U.S. was absolutely swimming in wheat, but now we are moving into a time when it will be considered a “luxury grain”.

Of course beef is already considered to be a “luxury meat”.

When I was growing up, my mother would feed us beef constantly because it was so inexpensive.

But now beef prices have skyrocketed, and some of the prices that we are seeing at the meat counters in our grocery stores are absolutely absurd…

I never thought that I would see beef prices get this high.

But this is the reality that we are living in now.

And it appears that beef prices will continue to remain elevated because the size of the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest that it has been since 1951…

The US cattle herd remained the smallest since 1951 at the start of the year, in the latest signal that consumer beef prices will remain near records.

There were about 86.2 million cattle and calves in the US as of Jan. 1, the US Department of Agriculture said in a Friday report. The tally is nearly unchanged from 2025, providing no relief to the ongoing cattle shortage.

The lack of improvement comes as ranchers keep selling animals to slaughter amid high beef demand, rather than retaining the animals to grow their herds. The downsizing — which began years prior when ranchers shrunk their herds due to high production costs and droughts — has sent consumer beef prices to all-time highs.

It is really hard to feed cattle when conditions are bone dry.

Sadly, they could get even drier in the months ahead…

Meanwhile, there’s a 62% chance of the world’s climate shifting from neutral to El Niño between June and August, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecast. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said that this El Niño could be the strongest on record, with peak intensity hitting in October.

El Niño typically results in hot and dry weather in many growing areas, including the U.S. Corn Belt and in Australia. With fertilizer supplies thin, this may further compound production losses for world wheat.

We are being told that we could soon be experiencing a “super El Niño”, and meteorologist Ryan Maue is warning that the long-term forecast for the second half of this year is “off the charts”…

I have been repeatedly warning my readers that global weather patterns are going nuts, and I was not exaggerating one bit.

We really are facing a historic long-term crisis with no end in sight.

As I discussed last week, for the upcoming season U.S. farmers are planting the fewest acres of wheat that we have seen since records began in 1919.

In 1919, there were 104 million people living in the United States.

Today, there are 341 million people living in the United States.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that we have a major problem on our hands.

Many of us have been warning about this crisis for years, and now we really have reached a breaking point.

The post Megadrought: We Just Experienced The Driest First Three Months Of A Year In U.S. History appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

More Than 80% Of Young Adults Believe That The Economy Is “Bad” Or “Terrible” And We Are Seeing The Consequences All Over America

2026-05-05T20:03:08Z

Decades of economic decline have brought this country to a breaking point. The vast majority of the population is barely scraping by from month to month as prices continue to rise, thousands of stores and restaurants close, foreclosures spike to alarming levels and the middle class continues to shrink. Now the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz threatens to make things a whole lot worse, and a lot of people are justifiably concerned about what this will mean for their futures.

Our young adults are being hit particularly hard. If you purchased a home 20 or 30 years ago, you are insulated from what is really going on out there. Housing costs are more unaffordable than ever, and many young people have completely given up on the dream of homeownership. Meanwhile, the employment market has gotten very tight, and this is especially true for entry-level jobs.

Do you know anyone under the age of 40 that is doing really well in this economy?

Yes, there are some exceptions, but in general our young adults are really struggling.

As a result, homelessness is at record levels and hordes of drug addicts are roaming the streets of our major cities.

If you doubt this, just check out this video that shows what has happened to the once great city of Los Angeles.

It was once a playground for the rich and famous, but now it has been transformed into a rotting, decaying hellhole.

It is undeniable that most of our young adults hate this economy.

In fact, a new survey that was just released found that a whopping 84 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 24 believe that economic conditions in the U.S. are either “bad” or “terrible”…

A recent survey by Generation Lab found that more than 8 in 10 young adults rate economic conditions in the U.S. as either bad or terrible.

The survey, conducted April 26-29, found that 55 percent of 546 respondents ages 18-24 said they view the economy as bad, while 29 percent said it was terrible.

The same survey discovered that 81 percent of Americans between the ages of 25 and 29 believe that economic conditions in the U.S. are either “bad” or “terrible”…

As for those in the 25-29 age range, 52 percent of 266 such respondents said the economy was bad. About 3 in 10 respondents said it was terrible, for a combined percentage of 81 percent that view the economy negatively.

This is what a long-term economic collapse looks like.

Many people have had their heads in the sand for years, but meanwhile economic conditions have continued to deteriorate all around us.

A different survey that polled American adults of all ages found that 78 percent of us do not feel financially secure at this stage…

A new Intuit Credit Karma/Harris Poll study found that 78% of Americans don’t feel financially secure, even if they’ve been saving and playing by the rules.

Moreover, nearly 3 in 4 Americans (72%) shared that their current financial standing makes them feel like they will never have enough money to achieve the American dream.

Let’s get real.

These numbers didn’t suddenly appear in a vacuum.

The truth is that our standard of living has been declining for a very long time.

I am about to share something with you that is absolutely shocking.

One man recently shared his paystub that shows what he brings home every two weeks.

After taxes, healthcare and child support, his net pay after working 85 hours is just $163.02…

How is he supposed to live on that?

I am so frustrated with those that think that everything is going to be just fine.

The number of foreclosure filings in the U.S. skyrocketed in 2025, and in the first quarter of this year they were 26 percent above last year’s blistering pace…

The Wall Street Journal reported that data from Attom shows the number of U.S. properties with a foreclosure filing has trended up to nearly 119,000 in the first quarter, an increase of 26% from the same period last year.

That figure is the highest since the first quarter of 2020, when mortgage relief measures implemented to mitigate the economic impact of COVID shutdowns led to a steep decline in foreclosures.

Unfortunately, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is making things even worse.

The average price of a gallon of gasoline in California is now up to $6.114…

California gas prices have climbed to eye-watering levels, with one rural county emerging as one of the most expensive fuel markets in the United States.

Mono County, a remote area in eastern California just east of Yosemite National Park, is seeing average prices close to seven dollars per gallon, according to AAA data. That compares with a statewide average of $6.114 per gallon and a national average of $4.457.

As I discussed yesterday, some residents of Los Angeles are now paying more than 8 dollars a gallon.

Higher gasoline prices will mean that Americans have even less discretionary income to play around with.

Some restaurant chains are already feeling this…

Wingstop, a chicken-wing chain that touts its affordability, said that higher fuel prices contributed to an 8.7% decline in quarterly same-store sales.

The chain’s CEO, Michael Skipworth, said Wednesday on a call with investors that it was “extremely difficult for anyone to predict this macro environment,” adding that he expects shrinking sales over this year in part because of expectations that gas prices will remain high.

This is not something that may or may not happen someday.

This is happening right now, and we are witnessing the consequences all over America.

In Los Angeles, rampant social decay has become a way of life…

Reality star-turned-Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt shared a devastating must-see campaign advertisement on X, showing how dire the situation is in LA under Democrat leadership.

The somber video, titled “City of Angels, Fallen – Part 1,” uses a rapid montage of raw street footage, news clips, and on-screen text to show just how far Los Angeles has declined under Karen Bass and Democrats, noting, “business as usual is a death sentence.”

Included in the video are stark images of homeless camps, a person lying unconscious or asleep on a dirty sidewalk next to trash bags, a sandwich on a plate, scattered belongings, and individuals who appear to be in the throes of drug abuse.

How could we have allowed this to happen?

According to Pratt, there are 70,000 drug addicts that are roaming the streets…

Speaking on fire recovery, Pratt notes, “The city failed everyone. The insurance companies failed everyone.”

He continues, “Mothers who want to go to the park but don’t want to inhale fentanyl from the 70,000 drug addicts that the Mayor currently let’s live on our streets.”

Of course this isn’t just happening in Los Angeles.

In Seattle, street violence has become so common outside of one McDonald’s restaurant that it has become known as “McStabby’s”…

Two thugs were caught on video viciously beating an elderly man outside of ‘America’s scariest McDonald’s.’

The Seattle restaurant is so dangerous it is nicknamed ‘McStabby’s’, and bans customers from going inside due to constant mayhem.

In the latest chaotic scene, two men were seen standing on the street outside the eatery around 10pm on April 19 when a frail 77-year-old man walked towards them.

The two men then approached the victim before one struck him in the head.

Needless to say, it isn’t just old men that are being viciously attacked for no reason.

One very unfortunate 33-year-old man is on the verge of death after being hit in the head with a hammer more than a dozen times…

A 33-year-old Seattle man is fighting for his life after his mother says a stranger repeatedly hit him in the head with a hammer in an unprovoked assault.

Lisa Driscoll is calling for justice after her son, 33-year-old George Miller, was beaten repeatedly with a hammer just after midnight Monday outside the Renaissance Hotel. She says a stranger hit him in the head more than a dozen times.

“It was an evil, brutal, unprovoked, horrific attack,” Driscoll said. “Someone who was reported to appear to be hunting to attack someone crossed over, took a hammer out of their backpack and started beating him over the head repeatedly.”

Whether we like it or not, this is our country now.

We have raised an entire generation of young people that is simply not equipped to deal with very harsh economic conditions.

Sadly, economic conditions are only going to get harsher.

It is time to wake up, because a nightmare scenario really is upon us.

The post More Than 80% Of Young Adults Believe That The Economy Is “Bad” Or “Terrible” And We Are Seeing The Consequences All Over America appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

California Is Facing A “Fuelmaggedon” As Fighting Erupts In The Middle East And The Strait Of Hormuz Remains Closed

2026-05-04T20:21:38Z

Would you pay 8 dollars for a gallon of gasoline? I know that may sound crazy to many of you, but that is what some residents of Los Angeles are paying right now. Sadly, the west coast is more dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf than anywhere else in the continental United States, and now the last tanker that departed before the war with Iran began has arrived. What this means is that gas prices are going to go even higher on the west coast. In fact, some gas stations may soon need to add another digit on their pumps in order to accommodate prices that are higher than $9.99 a gallon.

After President Trump announced the start of “Project Freedom”, a few commercial vessels decided that they would try to make it through the Strait of Hormuz.

Shortly thereafter, the Iranians began firing.

A South Korean cargo vessel was among those that were targeted…

A South Korean ship sailing near the Strait of Hormuz was attacked on Monday, according to the Korean media outlet Chosun Daily, citing a government official.

U.S. warships were targeted too, and in response the Navy destroyed 6 Iranian fast attack boats…

The U.S. attacked Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday after Tehran targeted Navy ships, threatening to upend a fragile ceasefire and President Donald Trump’s new vow to open the critical pathway.

The U.S. military “blew up” six small Iranian boats after its forces launched “multiple cruise missiles, drones and small boats” at the ships but did not hit them, according to U.S. Central Command head Adm. Bradley Cooper, who leads America’s operations in the region. He did not say what impact this would have on the ceasefire.

The Iranians have also launched at least 15 missiles and 4 drones at the United Arab Emirates…

United Arab Emirates air defences engaged 15 Iranian missiles and four drones, its defence ministry says.

That includes 12 ballistic missiles and three cruise missiles, injuring three people.

Most of the missiles and drones were intercepted, but it appears that a significant amount of damage was done at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone…

Flames also broke out at Fujairah Oil Industry Zone after a drone attack, which has left three Indian nationals with “moderate” injuries.

Plumes of dark smoke have been pummelling into the sky after the shock strike, some 80 miles from Dubai.

Needless to say, those running the UAE are extremely upset, and they are warning that they have a “full and legitimate right” to hit back…

The UAE’s foreign ministry said the attacks posed a direct threat to the nation’s security, adding that the UAE reserved its “full and legitimate right” to respond.

The ceasefire is dead, and that is really bad news for those that were hoping that gasoline prices would come down soon.

On Monday, it was being reported that the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States has now reached $4.45…

Gas prices are entering the summer driving season at record levels, with the national average hitting $4.45 on May 2—the highest ever for that date.

That’s up about $1.28 from a year ago, according to AAA, with prices rising across nearly every region.

Paying four and a half dollars a gallon is not the end of the world.

But in some parts of California, it is an entirely different story right now.

As I mentioned earlier, some residents of Los Angeles are now paying more than 8 dollars a gallon…

Long known for its sprawling freeways and car-centric lifestyle, Los Angeles is reaching a breaking point as fuel costs turn the simple act of driving into a “miserable, miserable, miserable” experience.

As regional gas prices soar past $8 a gallon, residents in the once-thriving Golden State are checking their eyes and their bank accounts, with some admitting they “thought it was a meme” or “thought it was AI.” But the financial pain is all too real for those living in the nation’s most expensive car culture, where filling a tank now requires a triple-digit investment.

“It’s very painful to drive in L.A. right now, and especially if you’re barely making minimum wage, it’s not even worth driving,” Amador, from Santa Clarita, told Fox News Digital during a man-on-the-street segment. “Thought it was a meme, thought it was AI, but looking at it up close, it’s kind of crazy to think you’re paying almost $9.”

That is crazy.

Sadly, gas prices in California could soon go a lot higher because “the final ship carrying oil from the Middle East” has reached the Port of Long Beach…

California is about to face the most brutal test of the gas crisis yet as the final ship carrying oil from the Middle East arrived in the Golden State.

The last oil tanker to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran war kicked off docked at the Port of Long Beach with two million barrels for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

Despite the West Coast being heavily reliant on fossil fuels out of the Persian Gulf due to crippling eco-policies from Gavin Newsom, there are no more vessels currently en route.

No more tankers from the Middle East will be arriving.

That is really bad news, because normally approximately 30 percent of California’s oil imports come from the Persian Gulf…

Last year, California refineries sourced around 30% of their foreign crude oil from the Persian Gulf, based on state data.

The Golden State is particularly vulnerable to war in the region as its status as an isolated energy island without gas pipelines has led it to increasingly rely on these imports.

The politicians in California didn’t want to build any pipelines.

Now they are going to pay a very great price for that decision.

Everyone was counting on a quick end to the war.

Now fighting has resumed, and I expect that this conflict will soon escalate dramatically.

But even if a miracle happens and some sort of a deal is reached, the Iranians are never going to allow traffic to flow through the Strait of Hormuz like it did before the war.

The Iranians have been very clear about the fact that they intend to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz from now on…

Statements have intensified following a message for National Persian Gulf Day attributed to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

In the message, he described the strait as a “strategic asset” and outlined a vision for the region’s future as “a future without America,” emphasizing the importance of “Iranian management of the strait.”

Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signaled the shift most clearly, linking current policy to both strategic doctrine and historical precedent.

“Today as well, by exercising management over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will ensure that it and its neighbors enjoy the valuable prospect of a future free from the presence and interference of America,” he wrote on X.

If the Iranians are allowed to charge tolls and restrict who is allowed to use the Strait of Hormuz on a permanent basis, it will strangle the global economy for years to come.

But the only way to break Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz is by force.

Either option will have enormous consequences.

The bottom line is that we are still only in the very early stages of this crisis, and so the elevated gas prices that we are witnessing now could seem like a great bargain a few months down the road.

The post California Is Facing A “Fuelmaggedon” As Fighting Erupts In The Middle East And The Strait Of Hormuz Remains Closed appeared first on The Economic Collapse.