We Are Being Told The Odds Of A Recession Are Rising As Economic Conditions Deteriorate All Around Us

Is the U.S. economy headed for a recession?  Nobody can deny that consumer confidence is plummeting, home sales are way down, mass layoffs are being conducted all over the nation, thousands of stores are closing, and a global trade war has erupted.  Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is currently projecting that the U.S. economy will shrink at an annualized rate of 1.8 percent during the first quarter of 2025.  Needless to say, none of these are good signs.

In recent weeks, the corporate media has been running lots of stories about how the odds of a recession are suddenly surging.  Here is one example from NBC News

Trade tensions have torn into the markets. With stocks sliding into correction territory in the last week, a question emerges: Is a recession next?

Traders on prediction markets — where people wager on such events as the likelihood of a recession — are increasingly betting on an economic downturn. Polymarket, for example, currently places the odds on a recession in 2025 at 40% — a sharp jump of nearly 20 percentage points in under a month.

That is quite alarming.

And earlier today, it was being reported that a Deutsche Bank survey of 400 experts found that nearly half of them now believe that “the U.S. is heading for a recession”…

Chances that the U.S. is heading for a recession are close to 50-50, according to a Deutsche Bank survey that raises more questions about the direction of the U.S. economy.

The probability of a downturn in growth over the next 12 months is about 43%, as set by the average view of 400 respondents during the period of March 17-20.

I haven’t seen this much chatter about a potential recession in a long time, and a lot of people out there are really scared.

In an attempt to help some of those frightened people, USA Today just posted an article with advice about how to prepare for a recession…

If the United States is about to enter a recession, as some economists fear, it will be one of the most widely anticipated downturns in recent memory.

Americans have had lots of time to prepare. But are we ready?

Personally, I like to look at the cold, hard numbers to determine whether a recession is coming or not.

And what the cold, hard numbers are telling us right now is extremely alarming.

Normally tax revenue declines significantly when an economic downturn is upon us, and according to the Washington Post it appears that federal tax revenue in 2025 will be down by about 10 percent compared to last year…

Senior tax officials are bracing for a sharp drop in revenue collected this spring, as an increasing number of individuals and businesses spurn filing their taxes or attempt to skip paying balances owed to the Internal Revenue Service, according to three people with knowledge of tax projections.

Treasury Department and IRS officials are predicting a decrease of more than 10 percent in tax receipts by the April 15 deadline compared with 2024, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share nonpublic data. That would amount to more than $500 billion in lost federal revenue; the IRS collected $5.1 trillion last year. For context, the U.S. government spent $825 billion on the Defense Department in fiscal 2024.

“The idea of doing that in one year, it’s hard to grapple with how meaningful of a shift that represents,” said Natasha Sarin, president of the Yale Budget Lab and a senior Biden administration tax official.

In a season that is full of red flags for the economy, this may be the biggest red flag of them all.

Another really bad sign is that consumer sentiment just plunged to a 29 month low

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. fell for the third consecutive month in March, now down 22% from December 2024 before President Donald Trump took office, a new survey found.

The University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment fell to 57.9 this month, a 29-month low. The index showed participants’ expectations for the future of their personal finances and the stock market had deteriorated. It also showed that Americans are expecting inflation to get worse, not better, during a time when many are worried tariffs will raise prices at the checkout aisle.

Economic conditions have not been good for a long time.

So it is quite disturbing to see that so many Americans expect things to get even worse.

One recent survey found that the percentage of Americans that believe that the economy is getting worse is more than twice as high as the percentage of Americans that believe that the economy is getting better…

Nearly half of Americans on Thursday said the economy is worsening, according to a new The Economist/YouGov poll.

Forty-eight percent of respondents said they believe the economy is worsening while 19 percent said it is improving.

The poll took place between March 9 and 11, a period that included rough days for the stock market.

And apparently Warren Buffett is also deeply concerned about where things are heading, because he has been in talks to sell off the fourth largest real estate brokerage in the entire country

Warren Buffett is likely selling his real estate empire – the latest warning sign that the property market is in dire straits.

The real estate market has been on the skids in recent years. Brokerage companies have attempted to consolidate as home sales remain very low.

Compass, the largest real estate brokerage in the country, is in advanced talks to acquire Berkshire Hathaway’s HomeServices of America, the fourth-biggest player in the industry, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The housing market has been in a depressed state for quite a while, and that is not likely to change until interest rates go much lower.

Needless to say, the turmoil in the housing market has been hitting financial institutions quite hard.

Last week, we learned that Morgan Stanley is planning to lay off approximately 2,000 workers

Wall Street heavyweight Morgan Stanley (MS) is planning to lay off about 2,000 employees later this month, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

The reduction of 2% to 3% of the company’s workforce, excluding financial advisers, was aimed at improving operational efficiency, the person said, requesting anonymity.

So many employers are shedding employees right now.

This is particularly true in the Washington D.C. area because of all the cutbacks that are happening.

Meanwhile, stores are permanently closing at a staggering pace.  Just check out what Dollar General has decided to do

Another national retailer will be closing stores in 2025.

Dollar General announced in its fourth quarter earnings report last week it is planning to close 96 Dollar General stores and 45 Popshelf stores during the first quarter of 2025, while another six Popshelf stores will be converted into Dollar General stores.

“As we look to build on the substantial progress we made on our Back to Basics work in fiscal 2024, we believe this review was appropriate to further strengthen the foundation of our business,” said Todd Vasos, Dollar General’s chief executive officer, in the earnings report.

Overall, it is being projected that somewhere around 15,000 stores will close in the United States in 2025.

If that projection turns out to be accurate, that will be a brand new all-time record.

All around us we can see very clear signs that a new economic downturn has arrived, and at this point the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is forecasting that U.S. GDP will shrink at a 1.8 percent annualized rate during the first quarter…

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.8 percent on March 18, up from -2.1 percent on March 17. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast for first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 7.2 percent to 9.1 percent. Due to FOMC blackout policy, today’s post does not include an update of the version of the model described here that adjusts the standard GDPNow model forecast for foreign trade in gold. That adjusted model will again be updated after our first scheduled post-blackout update on March 26.

If U.S. GDP contracts during the first quarter, all it will take is one more quarter of negative growth for us to officially be in a recession.

Our economic momentum is clearly taking us in the wrong direction very rapidly, and all of the societal chaos that we are witnessing at the moment is certainly not going to help matters.

This is not what a lot of people were expecting, but the truth is that it appears that a lot of economic pain is ahead.

Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written eight other  books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”“End Times”“7 Year Apocalypse”“Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”“The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

19 Reasons Why The Federal Reserve Is At The Heart Of Our Economic Problems

Most Americans have absolutely no idea how we got into the mess that we are in today.  The reason why the U.S. government is 36 trillion dollars in debt and our society as a whole is 102 trillion dollars in debt is because the system is performing exactly as it was designed.  We have a system that was literally designed to create colossal amounts of debt.  But if you ask most Americans about this, they cannot tell you what the Federal Reserve is or why it is at the heart of our economic problems.  When Americans get into discussions about the economy, most of them still blame either the Democrats or the Republicans for our rapidly growing economic problems.  But the truth is that the institution with the most power over our economic system is the Federal Reserve.  So exactly what is the Federal Reserve?  Most people would say that it is an agency of the federal government.  But that is not entirely accurate.  In fact, the Federal Reserve itself has argued in court that it is not an agency of the federal government.   The truth is that the Federal Reserve is a privately-owned banking cartel that has been given a perpetual monopoly over our monetary system by the U.S. Congress.  This privately-owned central bank has been destroying the value of the U.S. dollar for decades, it has run our economy into the ground, and it has driven the U.S. government to the brink of bankruptcy.  The Federal Reserve operates in great secrecy  and it acts as if it is not accountable to the American people.  Yet the decisions that the Federal Reserve makes have a dramatic impact on the lives of every single American citizen.

If you really want to understand what is causing our economic problems, it is absolutely crucial that you understand exactly what the Federal Reserve is and how it is systematically destroying our economy.  Once you understand the truth about the Federal Reserve, you will view economic issues a whole lot differently.

The following are 19 reasons why the Federal Reserve is at the heart of our economic problems…

#1 The Federal Reserve is the central pillar of our debt-based financial system.

The way our system is designed, normally no money comes into existence without more debt being created.

But this creates a huge problem, because when a new dollar is created, the interest that will be owed on that new borrowed dollar is not also created at the same time.

Therefore, the amount money that is created is not equal to the larger amount of debt that is also created.

This is a Ponzi scheme that is designed to drain wealth from the American people and transfer it to the elite.

Today, the amount of debt in our economic system is far, far, far greater than the total amount of money.

The only way to keep the game going is to create even more money which creates even more debt.

#2 The Federal Reserve and the bankers have a monopoly on the creation of this debt-based money.

In the United States today, the only people that can create money are the bankers.

You cannot create money.

You would go to jail if you tried.

Even the U.S. government is not permitted to create money.

Although the U.S. Constitution specifically gives Congress the power to create money, the U.S. Congress has relinquished that power to the Federal Reserve.

This gives the Federal Reserve an enormous amount of power.

If you pull out a dollar bill, you will notice that it says “Federal Reserve Note” right at the top.

In the financial world, a “note” is an instrument of debt.

According to Investopedia, a “note” is “a debt security obligating repayment of a loan, at a predetermined interest rate, within a defined time frame”.

So is a “Federal Reserve Note” actually a “debt security”?  Investopedia says that it is…

Technically, yes, a federal reserve note is a promissory note that does not pay any interest. It is defined as such because it states that “this note is legal tender for all debts, public and private,” indicating a promise for the government and private citizens to accept and honor the note as legal tender.

Our financial system is nothing but a giant pile of debt.

Ultimately, the entire system is designed to drain our wealth and put it into the hands of the bankers.

#3 The power of money creation and debt creation is in the hands of private banks – not the government.

The Federal Reserve has claimed that it is an “entity within the government, having both public purposes and private aspects”.

That sounds so reasonable, but the truth is that the Federal Reserve is a legalized banking cartel that is privately-owned.

In fact, the Federal Reserve is about as “federal” as Federal Express is.

In defending itself against a Bloomberg request for information under the Freedom of Information Act, the Federal Reserve objected by declaring that it is “not an agency” of the U.S. government and therefore it is not subject to the Freedom of Information Act.

So if it is not a government agency, who owns the Federal Reserve?

On the official website of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, we learn that the Federal Reserve Banks “are not a part of the federal government” and that private banks “hold stock in the Federal Reserve Banks and earn dividends”…

The Federal Reserve Banks are not a part of the federal government, but they exist because of an act of Congress. Their purpose is to serve the public. So is the Fed private or public?

The answer is both. While the Board of Governors is an independent government agency, the Federal Reserve Banks are set up like private corporations. Member banks hold stock in the Federal Reserve Banks and earn dividends.

#4 The Federal Reserve itself is not a profit-making institution.  Rather, it is a tool that enables others to make obscene amounts of money.

There are many that think of the Federal Reserve as an evil profit-making machine.  But the truth is that the Fed itself wasn’t designed to make money.  Rather, the system was set up so that others could make an obscene amount of money from all of the debt that the system creates.

If the U.S. government had been issuing debt-free money all this time, the U.S. government would likely not be spending one penny on interest payments.  Instead, the U.S. government will spend over a trillion dollars just on interest on the national debt in 2025.  This is money that belongs to U.S. taxpayers that is transferred to the U.S. government which in turn is transferred to wealthy international bankers and other foreign governments.

This is the magic of the Federal Reserve system.  It is about getting the U.S. government enslaved to debt and using that debt to transfer trillions of dollars of our wealth into the hands of others.

As interest rates go up, this transfer of wealth is going to become even more brutal.

As you fill out your tax return this year, just keep in mind that vast quantities of our money is going to pay interest on debt that the U.S. government never needed to take on.

There are some very happy people out there that are becoming fabulously wealthy at our expense.

What a system, eh?

#5 The Federal Reserve is a perpetual debt machine.

As mentioned above, the U.S. government is enslaved to debt.

So how did it get enslaved?

Well, instead of printing up and spending the money that it needs, the U.S. government borrows it through the Federal Reserve system at interest.

In fact, as noted above, the U.S. government cannot create a single new dollar without borrowing it.

But each new dollar that the U.S. government borrows creates more than a dollar of new debt.

As a result, the government eventually has to collect more in taxes than what it has borrowed.

This phenomenon creates an endless debt spiral.

Is that not what we have in the United States today?  In fact, you see this in almost every nation on Earth where a similar central banking system has been established.

Did you know that the U.S. national debt is more than 10,000 times larger than it was 100 years ago?

Back in 1910, prior to the passage of the Federal Reserve Act, the national debt was only about $2.6 billion.

Now we are more than 36 trillion dollars in debt.

The only way that the U.S. government can inject more money into the economy is by going into more debt.  But when new government debt is created, the amount of money to pay the interest on that debt is not also created.  In this way, it was intended by the international bankers that U.S. government debt would expand indefinitely and the U.S. money supply would also expand indefinitely.  In the process, the international bankers would become insanely wealthy by lending money to the U.S. government.

However, things did not have to turn out this way.

If the Federal Reserve had never been created, and the U.S. government had been issuing debt-free currency all this time, it is entirely conceivable that we would have absolutely no federal government debt at this point.

Unfortunately, we are now trapped in a debt-based system.

The U.S. national debt simply cannot ever be paid off.  U.S. government debt has been mathematically designed to expand forever, and it has become a trap from which there is no escape.

#6 The Federal Reserve system is designed to cause inflation.

As U.S. government debt expands at an exponential pace, it inevitably causes inflation.

Most Americans believe that inflation is a fact of life, but the truth is that the United States has only had a major, ongoing problem with inflation since the Federal Reserve was created back in 1913.

Sadly, the U.S. dollar has lost about 99 percent of its value since the Federal Reserve was created.

If the Federal Reserve did not exist, it is theoretically conceivable that we could have an economy with little or no inflation.  Of course that would greatly depend on the discipline of our government officials (which is not very great at this point), but the sad truth is that our current system is always going to produce inflation.

Federal Reserve officials try to keep the official rate of inflation in single digit territory, but they are not always successful.

#7 The Federal Reserve has decided to play bizarre games with our money supply.

In a desperate attempt to revive the dying U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve has resorted to chucking gigantic quantities of money into the financial system.

Remember how earlier I explained that normally whenever new money is created that more debt is created?

Well, in recent years the Fed has been resorting to a trick called “quantitative easing”.  What “quantitative easing” means is that the Federal Reserve zaps massive amounts of money into existence out of thin air and injects it into the financial system.  This has primarily been done by purchasing large quantities of U.S. Treasuries.

But isn’t that “monetizing the debt”?

Of course it is, and it is a blatant Ponzi scheme.

However, what is even more alarming is what this is doing to our money supply.

Just look at what has happened to our monetary base since the later stages of 2008….

It was inevitable that this rapid expansion of our monetary base was going to cause horrifying inflation.

Anyone that thought otherwise was just being delusional.

Now we are in a cost of living crisis that has no end in sight, and most Americans still do not understand who is responsible.

#8 The Federal Reserve is undemocratic.

What makes the central economic planning that the Federal Reserve does different from the central economic planning that communist China does?

Sadly, there really isn’t much of a difference.

Only in our case, the central planners don’t have to answer to anyone.

President Trump cannot order the Federal Reserve to do anything.

The Federal Reserve does not have to answer to Congress either.

It has been called “our fourth branch of government”, and it is totally out of control.

#9 The Federal Reserve runs the U.S. economy.

Most Americans want to blame Joe Biden or Donald Trump or the U.S. Congress for the state of our economy.

But the truth is that it is the Federal Reserve that sets interest rates, it is the Federal Reserve that determines the size of the money supply, it is the Federal Reserve that sets the “target rate” of inflation, it is the Federal Reserve that determines if unemployment is too high or too low, and it is the Federal Reserve that watches over all of our banks.

Yes, the politicians in Washington all have things to answer for as well.

But the politicians in Washington do not have the direct power over the economy that the Federal Reserve does.

#10 The Federal Reserve favors the big banks.

Not all financial institutions are treated equally by the Fed.

The truth is that the big banks (particularly those in New York) are treated with great favor by the Federal Reserve.

During the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve made over $9 trillion in overnight loans to major banks and large financial institutions.

Wouldn’t you like to be able to zap trillions of dollars into existence and loan it out to your friends at very favorable terms?

Sadly, most of the “help” from the Federal Reserve always seems to go to the big boys.

When “small enough to fail” banks need assistance, they are usually told to go sell themselves to one of the big banks.

#11 The worse the debt problems caused by the Federal Reserve become, the more money the IRS needs to collect from the rest of us.

If the U.S. government could issue debt-free money, it is conceivable that we would not even need the IRS.  You doubt this?  Well, the truth is that the United States did just fine for well over a hundred years without a national income tax.  But in the same year the Federal Reserve was created, a national income tax was instituted as well.  The whole idea was that the wealth of the American people would be transferred to the U.S. government by force and then transferred into the hands of the ultra-wealthy in the form of interest payments.

If the Federal Reserve was shut down, it is entirely possible that we would be able to shut down the IRS as well.

But the only way that the current system works is if massive amounts of wealth continue to be drained from the American people.

#12 The Federal Reserve creates artificial financial bubbles.

When you look back over the last several decades, you will find financial bubble after financial bubble.

So who created all of those bubbles?

It was the Federal Reserve.

The ridiculous policies of the Fed have wrought disaster after disaster and yet most of our politicians still will not even consider major changes to the Federal Reserve.

#13 The Federal Reserve is anti-free market.

In a true free market system, the marketplace would determine what interest rates are.

In a true free market system, the marketplace would determine which financial institutions survive.

In a true free market system, artificial financial bubbles would be far less likely.

But we don’t have a true free market system.

#14 The Federal Reserve tells the rest of the our banks what to do.

Most Americans don’t understand just how much power the Federal Reserve actually has over our local banks.

The Fed is the chief regulator of the banking system, and that is extremely unfortunate.  The following comes from the Fed’s official website

The Federal Reserve’s supervision activities include examinations and inspections to ensure that financial institutions operate in a safe and sound manner and comply with laws and regulations. These include an assessment of a financial institution’s risk-management systems, financial conditions, and compliance.

That paragraph makes it all sound so benign.

But the truth is that the Fed can be quite tyrannical.

For example, Fed officials once walked into one bank in Oklahoma and demanded that they take down all of the Bible verses and all of the Christmas buttons that the bank had been displaying.

#15 The people currently running the Federal Reserve pretty much have no idea what they are doing.

You may have noticed that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has a very long track record of incompetence.  Nearly every major judgment that he has made since taking over that position has been dead wrong.

If one of us could go down the street and appoint the manager of the local Dairy Queen as the Chair of the Federal Reserve, it is very doubtful that person would do a worse job than Powell has done.

#16 Even though the Federal Reserve has such extraordinary power over the financial system, the American people are not permitted to examine their books.

The Federal Reserve claims that it is regularly audited, but when some members of Congress attempted to push through a true comprehensive audit Federal Reserve officials threw a hissy fit.

The truth is that the Federal Reserve has never undergone a true comprehensive audit since it was created back in 1913.

Whenever the subject of an audit comes up, the Fed keeps repeating the mantra of how important “the independence of the Federal Reserve” is.

Sadly, Ron Paul’s proposal to audit the Federal Reserve when he was still a member of Congress ultimately failed.

Instead, a very limited examination of Fed transactions that occurred during the global financial crisis was approved.

So what did that limited examination reveal?

Well, the Federal Reserve was forced to reveal the details of 21,000 transactions stretching from December 2007 to July 2010.  It turns out that the Federal Reserve was just handing out gigantic piles of nearly interest-free cash to their friends at the largest banks, financial institutions and corporations all over the globe.

Many members of Congress were absolutely stunned by these revelations.

So what would a more comprehensive audit reveal?

#17 The Federal Reserve has way too much power.

If the Federal Reserve did not exist, we would not have an unelected, unaccountable “fourth branch of government” running around that has gotten completely and totally out of control.

Today, global financial markets react instantly whenever a Fed official makes a public statement.

And when the Fed hikes interest rates or monkeys around with the money supply it has a dramatic impact on all of us.

Ron Paul once told MSNBC that he is convinced that the Federal Reserve has actually become more powerful than Congress…

“The regulations should be on the Federal Reserve. We should have transparency of the Federal Reserve. They can create trillions of dollars to bail out their friends, and we don’t even have any transparency of this. They’re more powerful than the Congress.”

#18 The Federal Reserve is dominated by Wall Street and the New York banks.

The New York representative is the only permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, while representatives from the other regional banks rotate.  The truth is that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has always been the most important of the regional Fed banks by a very wide margin, and in turn the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has always been heavily influenced by Wall Street and the major New York banks.

#19 The Federal Reserve has brought us to the brink of economic collapse.

If the Federal Reserve had never been created, the American people would not be so enslaved to debt.

Nobody can deny that debt is at the very core of our economic problems.  U.S. consumers are drowning in debt, state and local governments are facing horrific debt problems from coast to coast, and our federal government has piled up the biggest mountain of debt in the history of the world.

We are living in an absolutely massive debt bubble, and when it bursts the world is going to experience financial chaos like it has never seen before.

Things did not have to turn out this way.

We did not have to adopt a debt-based financial system, and we did not have to allow the bankers to enslave us with debt.

But that is what happened.

Sadly, most Americans and the vast majority of our politicians are still clueless about these issues.

In 1922, Henry Ford wrote the following…

“The people must be helped to think naturally about money. They must be told what it is, and what makes it money, and what are the possible tricks of the present system which put nations and peoples under control of the few.”

Hopefully this article will help people understand our debt-based financial system a little bit better.

Until we fundamentally change our system, many of the economic and financial problems that we are currently experiencing will never go away.

The borrower is the servant of the lender, and by allowing ourselves to become enslaved to debt we have become the servants of the international banking system.

Not only that, we have also sold our children and our grandchildren into perpetual debt slavery.

Thomas Jefferson tried to warn us about this.

He believed that when the government borrows money in one generation which must be paid back by future generations it is equivalent to stealing

And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale.

In fact, Thomas Jefferson said that if he could add one more amendment to the U.S. Constitution it would be a ban on all government borrowing

I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution. I would be willing to depend on that alone for the reduction of the administration of our government to the genuine principles of its Constitution; I mean an additional article, taking from the federal government the power of borrowing.

Where would we be today if we had chosen to listen to Thomas Jefferson?

The amount of government debt that we have racked up is a great evil.  We have stolen the future away from our children and our grandchildren.  We have put them in a position where they will spend the rest of their lives paying off our debts to the bankers.

We owe it to future generations to fix the problems that we have created.

That is why so many of us believe that it is time for the U.S. Congress to shut down the Federal Reserve.  Our current financial system is a complete and utter failure and we need to start over.

Michael’s blockbuster entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written eight other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”“End Times”“7 Year Apocalypse”“Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”“The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

Here Are 7 Astonishing Economic Charts That Will Absolutely Blow Your Mind

As a nation, we have literally been in the process of committing financial suicide for decades.  Sadly, some people have responded to the new administration’s efforts to get debt levels under control by committing acts of extreme violence.  Our society is deeply addicted to debt and that must stop.  The 7 economic charts that you are about to see are incredibly shocking.  If you know anyone that still does not believe that the United States is in the midst of a long-term economic decline, just show them these charts.  Sometimes you can quote economic statistics to people until you are blue in the face and it won’t do any good, but when those same people see charts and pictures suddenly it all sinks in.  What is great about charts is that you can very easily demonstrate what has been happening to the economy over an extended period of time.  As you examine the economic charts below, pay special attention to what has been happening to the U.S. economy over the last 30 or 40 years.  The truth is that what is wrong with the U.S. economy is not a great mystery.  All of the economic problems that we are experiencing now have taken decades to develop.  Hopefully the charts in this article will help people realize just how nightmarish our economic problems have become, because until people start realizing how incredibly bad things have gotten they will never be willing to accept the dramatic solutions that are necessary to fix our financial system.

The sad fact of the matter is that we are living in the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world.  All of this debt has made the present more pleasant, but it has also destroyed the bright economic future that our children and our grandchildren were supposed to enjoy.  If they have the opportunity, future generations of Americans will look back on what we have done to them in absolute horror.

The 7 economic charts posted below are meant to shock you.  Most Americans today need to be shocked before they will be motivated to take action.  Please share these charts with as many people as you can.  If we can wake enough people up, hopefully something will be done about all of these problems while there is still time.

1 – Government spending is expanding at an exponential rate.  As you can see from the chart below, federal spending is now roughly 14 times higher than it was back in 1980.  And federal spending is about three trillion dollars higher per year than it was during the last full year before the pandemic.  Once the pandemic subsided, federal spending went down a bit, but now it is starting to rise at an exponential rate once again…

2 – U.S. government debt is absolutely exploding.  The United States government is 36 trillion dollars in debt.  How insane is that?  Our national debt is approximately 36 times larger than it was when Ronald Reagan first entered the White House.  Unfortunately, it continues to grow at breathtaking speed.  Even with the budget cuts we are witnessing, we will add trillions more to the debt this year.  Can we afford to continue to accumulate debt at this rate?…

3 – The growth of our money supply is a horror show.  Just look at how rapidly M1 has been skyrocketing over the last couple of years.  During the pandemic, M1 went from about 4 trillion dollars to more than 20 trillion dollars.  The Federal Reserve is clearly guilty of economic malpractice.  Is there any way that we are going to be able to avoid paying a very serious price for all of this reckless money printing?…

4 – Household debt has soared to almost unbelievable levels over the last 30 years.  The sad truth is that it is not just the U.S. government that has a massive debt problem.  U.S. households have also been accumulating debt at a staggering rate.  Total household and nonprofit organization debt did not pass the 2 trillion dollar mark until the mid-1980s, but now total U.S. household and nonprofit organization debt has surpassed the 20 trillion dollar mark.  Household debt alone accounts for approximately 18 trillion dollars of this total…

5 – The total of all debt (government, business and consumer) in the United States is now well over 100 trillion dollars.  If anyone doubts that our society is addicted to debt, just show them this chart.  This is a debt bubble that is absolutely unprecedented in U.S. history…

6 – More than 100 million U.S. adults that do not have jobs are considered to be “not in the labor force”.  When a U.S. adult is not working, they are put into one of two buckets.  For years, government bureaucrats have kept the number of Americans that are “officially unemployed” at a very low level, while the number of Americans that are dumped into the bucket labeled “not in the labor force” has just kept going up and up.  During the Great Recession, the number of Americans that were considered to be “officially unemployed” plus the number of Americans that were considered to be “not in the labor force” never exceeded 100 million.  Today, the number of Americans that are considered to be “not in the labor force” alone exceeds 102 million…

7 – The price of gold has gone absolutely nuts, and that is not a good sign.  When instability hits the financial markets, many investors flock to gold.  This is especially true in inflationary times.  Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the value of the U.S. dollar has declined by close to 99 percent.  One of the reasons given for the creation of the Federal Reserve was that the Fed was supposed to help control inflation.  But that didn’t exactly work out too well.  The truth is that the United States never had consistently rampant inflation until the Federal Reserve took control.  In particular, once the U.S. totally went off the gold standard in the 1970s inflation really started escalating out of control.  When the gold standard ended, an ounce of gold was worth 35 dollars.  Today, an ounce of gold is worth more than 3,000 dollars…

Needless to say, if the economic trends documented by the charts above continue to persist, we will have an enormous nightmare on our hands.

The U.S. economy as it currently exists is unsustainable by definition.  It is only a matter of time before we slam into an economic brick wall.

We have developed an economy that cannot function without massive amounts of debt, and at this point it seems like almost everyone is drowning in red ink.  The federal government is massively overextended, most of our state and local governments are massively overextended, most of our major corporations are massively overextended, and the majority of U.S. consumers are massively overextended.

The only way that the game can continue is for our leaders to continue to borrow and spend increasingly larger mountains of money.

But no debt spiral can go on forever.  At some point this entire house of cards is going to collapse.

When that happens, there is going to be economic pain that is greater than anything that this country has ever seen before.

Everything that I have been warning about for more than a decade is playing out right in front of our eyes.

We can’t keep piling up debt like this.

We just can’t.

But look at what has happened as a result of Elon Musk and his team making some modest cuts to government spending.

A significant portion of the population is losing their minds.

Our society cannot handle large spending cuts, and our society cannot handle what will come after a financial crash either.

We are in far more trouble than most people realize.

Michael’s blockbuster entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written eight other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”“End Times”“7 Year Apocalypse”“Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”“The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

We Are On The Verge Of Completing An Impressive Trifecta: A Stock Market ‘Correction’, A Global Trade War And A Government Shutdown All At The Same Time

We certainly do live in “interesting” times.  In all my years of writing, I have never seen a stock market correction, a global trade war and a government shutdown all happen at the same time.  If the federal government does indeed shut down on Friday, we will complete that very impressive trifecta.  Needless to say, a government shutdown would only add to the jitters that we are witnessing on Wall Street right now.  On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down for a fourth day in a row, and the S&P 500 fell into correction territory

Stocks fell on Thursday, with equities unable to shake a three-week market rout under the weight of new tariff threats from President Donald Trump.

The S&P 500 dropped about 1.4%, ending the day in correction and 10.1% off its record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 537 points, or 1.3%, its fourth day of declines putting it below the 41,000 level. The Nasdaq Composite shed 1.9% with shares like Tesla and Apple lower.

If the Dow successfully breaks through the very important psychological barrier of 40,000, we could potentially see it fall a long way.

A lot is going to depend on how the global trade war plays out.

More new tariffs are being announced on an almost daily basis.  On Thursday, President Trump announced a new 200 percent tariff on alcoholic beverages from the European Union…

President Donald Trump said Thursday he plans to put a 200% tariff on alcohol from France and other European nations in the latest escalation of global trade tensions.

The U.S. tariff comes after the European Union moved to reinstate an import tax on American whiskey.

“The European Union, one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the World, which was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States, has just put a nasty 50% Tariff on Whisky. If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES. This will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.,” Trump said on Truth Social.

We haven’t seen anything quite like this in modern times, and President Trump insists that he is “not going to bend at all”

President Donald Trump on Thursday doubled down on his escalating tariff plans, even as his economic agenda continued to rattle investors and contribute to a weekslong stock market sell-off.

“I’m not going to bend at all,” Trump said when asked about his tariff plans during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

“We’ve been ripped off for years, and we’re not going to be ripped off anymore,” he said.

It shall be fascinating to see how all of this plays out.

Meanwhile, we are right on the brink of a government shutdown.

According to Politico, Trump administration officials believe that a shutdown will be avoided because Democrats in the Senate will feel forced to accept what Republicans are offering…

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer threw down the gauntlet Wednesday, proclaiming that Republicans don’t have the 60 votes needed to keep the government open past Friday. But President Donald Trump and senior White House officials are increasingly confident Schumer will release enough centrists to put up the votes for passage, according to multiple White House officials I spoke to over the past 24 hours.

“They’re 100 percent gonna swallow it,” one White House official told me. “They’re totally screwed.”

I am not convinced.

Personally, I think that the Democrats are quite serious about allowing the government to shut down.

We shall see what happens.

Normally, when a government shutdown is looming the White House will attempt to reach out to the other side.  But this time around, things have been very different

In some ways, the White House’s posture smacks of over-confidence bordering on arrogance. During most face-offs like this — when an administration needs the votes of the opposition party for must-pass legislation — there’s typically some sort of outreach, even by the president himself.

Not so with Trump. Instead of extending an olive branch this week, the president used his Oval Office bilateral meeting with Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin to attack Schumer in vicious personal terms, saying he’s “no longer Jewish” and calling him a Palestinian.

The Trump administration is counting on Chuckie Schumer to fold.

But during a Senate floor speech on Wednesday evening, it certainly did not sound like he intended to fold…

“Republicans do not have the votes in the Senate to invoke cloture on the House CR. Our caucus is unified on a clean April 11 CR,” Schumer said during a Senate floor speech.

“We should vote on that,” Schumer said. “I hope — I hope — our Republican colleagues will join us to avoid a shutdown on Friday.”

Of course all of this is happening at a time when economic conditions are steadily deteriorating and low-income consumers are being hit particularly hard.  The following comes from the Wall Street Journal

Take low-income consumers: At an interview at the Economic Club of Chicago in late February, Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon said “budget-pressured” customers are showing stressed behaviors: They are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month because their “money runs out before the month is gone.” McDonald’s said in its most recent earnings call that the fast-food industry has had a “sluggish start” to the year, in part because of weak demand from low-income consumers. Across the U.S. fast-food industry, sales to low-income guests were down by a double-digit percentage in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier, according to McDonald’s.

We are certainly experiencing a lot of economic pain now, but much more is ahead if we stay on the path that we are currently on.

And more signs of trouble are constantly erupting all around us.  For example, the seventh largest bank in the U.S. has decided to permanently close 38 branches

America’s seventh biggest bank will shut 38 branches as it continues to roil from massive penalties related to failures in its anti-money laundering controls.

TD Bank has filed notice with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to close locations across 10 states on June 5.

Closures will include six each in New Jersey and Massachusetts, five in New York, four in New Hampshire and Maine, and three in Pennsylvania and Florida, according to The Philadelphia Business Journal.

Hundreds of U.S. banks are in bad shape, and dozens of them are in very serious trouble.

Of course our banking crisis is just one element of the nightmarish economic storm that is now brewing.

Hopefully our leaders will make very wise economic decisions in the days ahead.

If not, things will rapidly become even more “interesting” than they are already.

Michael’s blockbuster entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written eight other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”“End Times”“7 Year Apocalypse”“Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”“The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

They Are Accusing Trump Of “Manufacturing” A Recession, But What Is Really Going On?

Is it just a coincidence that a large number of talking heads in the corporate media have all suddenly decided to start blaming Donald Trump for causing a “recession”?  During the four years of the Biden administration those same voices insisted that there was no “recession” on the horizon even though homelessness was setting record high after record high, demand at food banks surged to levels never seen before, inflation was out of control, home sales plunged to extremely depressed levels, stores and restaurants were closing all over the nation and debt levels were breaking records.  Let’s be real.  The U.S. economy has been on a downward trajectory for a long time, and that downward trajectory got even steeper in the final stages of the Biden administration.  But now we are being told that the economic problems that we are experiencing are happening because  Donald Trump is “manufacturing” a recession

CNBC host Jim Cramer went off on President Donald Trump for fueling recession fears and cratering the stock market, noting competitor markets are “crushing us” and accusing Trump of potentially “manufacturing” a recession — or worse.

Really?

Trump has been in office less than 60 days.  He simply has not had much of an opportunity to have much of an impact on the economy yet.

But following more than 1,400 days of Joe Biden, U.S. households were absolutely drowning in debt.  In fact, we just learned that the average credit card debt load during the fourth quarter of last year was the highest that we have seen since the Great Recession

For one, Americans’ inflation-adjusted debt burdens are starting to grow further beyond prepandemic levels on a per-household basis. As of the fourth quarter of 2024, the average household’s credit-card debt surpassed $10,000, adjusted for inflation, for the first time since 2009, according to data compiled by consumer-finance website WalletHub.

Donald Trump was not president during the fourth quarter of 2024.

Joe Biden was.

We also just learned that missed payments on auto loans were at “the highest level in three decades” in January…

Missed payments on auto loans by American car owners rose to the highest level in three decades earlier this year.

The percentage of borrowers with subprime car loans who are at least 60 days past due on their loans increased to 6.56% in January, which was the highest level since data collection began in 1994, according to Fitch Ratings.

The share of 60 days past due subprime auto loan borrowers has remained above 6% since August 2024 after breaking the 6% threshold for the first time early last year. It previously approached the 6% mark in 1996, 2019 and 2023.

Donald Trump did not become president until January 20th.

So don’t try to put that on Trump.

During the final stages of the Biden administration, even many Americans that earn at least $150,000 per year were falling behind on their debts

From January 2023 to January 2025, the rate at which people earning $150,000 or more a year are 60-to-89 days behind on their overall debts has more than doubled, according to CreditGauge, which is produced by VantageScore, an independent joint venture of the three major credit bureaus.

Should we be concerned about where the economy is heading?

Yes!

But trying to blame Donald Trump for four years of failed policies just doesn’t make any sense.

It isn’t Trump’s fault that airlines are “cutting their first-quarter profit and sales estimates”

Airlines are cutting their first-quarter profit and sales estimates, warning that a weaker economic backdrop is weighing on travel demand.

Ahead of a JPMorgan industry conference, American Airlines on Tuesday said it expects to lose between 60 cents a share and 80 cents a share in the first three months of the year, a wider loss than the 20 cents to 40 cents a share it previously forecast.

And it isn’t Trump’s fault that retail sales have been falling all over the nation.  For example, Kohl’s is projecting “a sales decline between 5 percent to 7 percent”

Kohl’s, the Wisconsin-based store with over 1,100 locations, has lowered its sales expectations for 2025, citing shifting consumer spending patterns.

In its latest forecast, the retailer revised expectations to a sales decline between 5 percent to 7 percent.

The news sent the company’s stock plummeting by over 26 percent on Tuesday.

For months, I have been documenting the enormous economic mess that we are facing.

Now that President Trump is in the White House, he is going to have an opportunity to try to fix things.

But it won’t be easy.

At this point, the NFIB’s uncertainty index has risen to the second highest level ever

The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its small-business optimism index fell 2.1 points in February to a reading of 100.7.

The NFIB’s uncertainty index rose 4 points to 104, the second-highest reading ever, which in its current monthly form dates back to 1986.

If the U.S. economy is able to avoid a major recession, it will be an all-time economic miracle.

During a recent interview with Maria Bartiromo, President Trump openly acknowledged that we are facing “a period of transition”

So far, the president appears to be trying to lower expectations. In an interview that aired Sunday on Fox News, Mr. Trump demurred when asked by Maria Bartiromo if he expected a recession this year.

“I hate to predict things like that,” he said. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

If anyone thinks that it is all going to be smooth sailing ahead, they are just being delusional.

Of course the decisions that President Trump is making now will have an impact on the economy moving forward, and I have to admit that I am not keen on the trade wars that have erupted.  On Tuesday, President Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada…

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday ramped up a burgeoning trade war with Canada, saying he will double tariffs set to take effect within hours on all imported steel and aluminum products from Canada to 50%, amplifying a focus on tariff increases that has sent financial markets reeling and business leaders ringing alarm bells about weakening consumer demand.

Trump’s latest salvo was in response to the premier of Ontario’s announcement that he would place a 25% surcharge on the electricity Canada’s most populous province supplies to 1.5 million U.S. homes unless Trump drops all of his tariff threats against the northern U.S. neighbor.

If we try to fight trade wars with Canada, Mexico, China and the EU simultaneously, that is going to create an enormous amount of economic pain.

So hopefully our trade disputes will be settled quickly.

If not, those at the low end of the economic spectrum will be hit the hardest

With views of current finances among the poorest Americans already near the lowest in 14 years, tariffs are set to add more pressure by making many everyday items even pricier.

Low-income households, who spend a larger share of their budgets on goods than the wealthy and tend to favor cheaper imports, will bear the brunt of the hit. Economists from Bank of America and BNP Paribas expect the February consumer price index report due Wednesday to show early signs of the impact from tariffs — in particular the additional levies on items like furnishings, clothes and electronics coming from China.

The economic problems that we are currently witnessing all over the world are just one element of “the perfect storm” that we are now experiencing.

Hopefully President Trump and his team will make wise decisions during the days ahead.

And it would greatly help if the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates.

Unfortunately, a very serious economic downturn has already begun, and there are many voices that are absolutely determined to blame whatever happens next on Donald Trump.

Michael’s blockbuster entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written eight other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”“End Times”“7 Year Apocalypse”“Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”“The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

12 Shocking New All-Time Economic Records That Are Being Reported In 2025

The U.S. economy was steamrolling in the wrong direction for four years under Joe Biden, and now we have an extraordinary mess on our hands.  Nobody can deny that our economic numbers are absolutely horrible right now.  GDP growth is expected to be negative during the first quarter, inflation is rising again, home sales are at extremely depressed levels, retail sales are down, stores and restaurants are closing at a staggering pace, debt levels are out of control, and mass layoffs are happening all over the nation

President Donald Trump’s efforts to pare down the federal government workforce left a mark on the labor market in February, with announced job cuts at their highest level in nearly five years, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday.

The firm reported that U.S. employers announced 172,017 layoffs for the month, up 245% from January and the highest monthly count since July 2020 during the heightened uncertainty from the Covid pandemic. In addition, it marked the highest total for the month of February since 2009 during the global financial crisis.

Please read those two paragraphs again.

Layoffs announcements haven’t been this high during the month of February since 2009.

Wow.

And the total for the first two months of this year is also the highest that we have seen since 2009

January’s planned reductions brought the total through the first two months of the year to 221,812, also the highest for the period since 2009 and up 33% from the same time in 2024.

In case you haven’t figured it out yet, we have a major crisis on our hands, and the economic numbers that we are getting clearly reflect this.  The following are 12 shocking new all-time economic records that are being reported in 2025…

#1 Our trade deficit with the rest of the world has surged to an all-time record high

The US trade deficit widened to a record in January as companies scrambled to secure goods from overseas before President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on America’s largest trading partners.

The gap in goods and services trade widened 34% from the prior month to $131.4 billion, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. The deficit was larger than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

#2 The percentage of Americans that are “raiding their retirement savings” has never been higher

More Americans are raiding their retirement savings to cover emergency expenses, taking early withdrawals from their 401(k)s.

A record 4.8 percent of account holders took hardship withdrawals last year, up from 3.6 percent in 2023, according to Vanguard Group, which examined data from nearly 5 million people with 401(k)-type accounts.

#3 This year, the price of a dozen eggs in the United States has soared to the highest level ever

In January, the average price of a dozen eggs hit a record high of $4.95, up from $2.52 a year prior.

#4 The delinquency rate for subprime auto loans that are at least 60 days delinquent just hit a level we have never seen before

60+ day auto loan delinquencies in the subprime cohort (less credit-worthy borrowers) hit 6.56% in December 2024—the highest ever recorded. That’s up from 6.01% in November 2024 and 6.27% in 2023.

#5 In January, pending home sales dropped to an all-time record low

Contracts to buy previously owned homes fell to a record low in January as prospective buyers were constrained by higher mortgage rates and house prices.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Thursday that its Pending Home Sales Index, which is based on signed contracts, declined by 4.6% last month to 70.6, an all-time low.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, falling by 1.3% in January. Pending home sales were down 5.2% from a year ago.

#6 It is being projected that the U.S. will run a record high agricultural trade deficit of 49 billion dollars in 2025…

The U.S., known for being a global agriculture powerhouse, has never imported so much food.

Inbound shipments of everything from avocados to coffee and sugar are expected to drive the country’s agriculture trade deficit to a record $49 billion this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its trade outlook report. At the same time, America’s most widely grown crops have been losing overseas markets over the past decades.

It’s a stark turnaround for a nation that once used its abundant food supplies as a tool of statecraft, with the U.S. now facing a future of persistent agricultural trade deficits.

#7 Coresight Research is telling us that approximately 15,000 stores will be permanently closed in the United States in 2025.  That would be a new all-time record by a wide margin.

#8 The price of gold has moved above $2900 an ounce for the first time ever.

#9 Credit card debt in the United States has crossed the 1.2 trillion dollar mark for the very first time

Americans’ total credit card balances now stand at a record-high $1.21 trillion, the report said.

#10 Total household debt in the United States has crossed the 18 trillion dollar mark for the very first time…

Americans’ household debt — including credit cards, mortgages, auto loans and student loans — is at a new all-time high of $18.04 trillion, according to a report released Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

#11 The U.S. national debt has surpassed the 36 trillion dollar mark for the first time ever.

#12 When you add up all forms of debt in our society, it comes to a grand total of more than 100 trillion dollars.  This has never happened before in the entire history of our nation.

Earlier today, I was amused by a Newsweek article that stated that top economists are concerned that our economy “may be on a path toward recession or a downturn that could rival those of 2020 and 2008″…

Economists have expressed fears that the American economy may be on a path toward recession or a downturn that could rival those of 2020 and 2008.

These concerns have been heightened by falling retail sales and associated layoffs, the anticipated impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on prices and domestic consumption, American stock indexes trailing their European counterparts in recent months, the Federal Reserve’s statements indicating that inflationary struggles are far from over, and data pointing to sharp declines in consumer confidence.

Come on man.

Our economy is not “on a path toward recession”.

The truth is that our economy is in a recession right now.

Let’s be real.

Everywhere around us, people are in extreme economic pain.

Unfortunately, what we have experienced so far is just the beginning.

So I would encourage you to brace yourself for what is coming next, because it isn’t going to be pleasant.

Michael’s blockbuster entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written eight other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”“End Times”“7 Year Apocalypse”“Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”“The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

The Global Trade War Is Officially On! Trudeau Calls Trump “Dumb” And China Promises To Fight “To The Bitter End”

I can hardly believe how rapidly economic events are moving now.  The global trade war that has just erupted is going to be immensely painful.  If you doubt this, just read all the way to the end of this article. There is a reason why the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by more than 1,300 points over the past two days.  The top minds on Wall Street clearly understand what is coming.  China, Canada, Mexico and the EU could avert disaster by negotiating with President Trump, but they are all choosing not to do so.  Everyone is digging in for a long fight, and the result is going to be absolutely disastrous.  Of course all of this is happening at a time when it appears that a recession has already begun.  We are in far more trouble than most people realize, and the months ahead are likely to be quite excruciating.

Shortly after Trump officially imposed high tariffs on goods coming from China, Canada and Mexico, the Chinese and the Canadians announced new tariffs of their own

Canada and China swiftly announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. on Tuesday, shortly after long-threatened levies by the Trump administration on those countries and Mexico took effect.

President Donald Trump’s new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada were imposed at 12:01 a.m. ET, along with a doubling of duties on some Chinese goods to 20%.

The Canadian economy is going to be thrown into a major downturn by these tariffs, but Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has foolishly decided that this is a battle that his nation needs to fight

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Tuesday retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports to Canada after the U.S. imposed levies of its own. He said a 25% duty on CA$30 billion worth of U.S. goods would take effect immediately, adding that another CA$125 billion in products would be hit with the same tariff in three weeks.

During remarks to the press, Trudeau publicly stated that what Trump has chosen to do is “dumb”

“We should be working together to ensure even greater prosperity for North Americans in a very uncertain and challenging world,” he said. “Now, it’s not in my habit to agree with the Wall Street Journal, but Donald, they point out that even though you’re a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do.”

“Today the United States launched a trade war against Canada, their closest partner and ally, their closest friend. At the same time, they’re talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin, a lying murderous dictator. Make that make sense,” said Trudeau. “We two friends fighting is exactly what our opponents around the world want to see.”

Of course Trump was going to see what Trudeau said, and he responded by threatening to raise tariffs on Canadian products even higher

Please explain to Governor Trudeau, of Canada, that when he puts on a Retaliatory Tariff on the U.S., our Reciprocal Tariff will immediately increase by a like amount!

Canada is our largest trade partner, and there will be severe consequences on both sides of the border.

One Canadian official is warning that this trade war will result in “recessions, job losses and economic disaster”

“Today’s reckless decision by the U.S. administration is forcing Canada and the U.S. toward recessions, job losses and economic disaster,” Canadian Chamber of Commerce CEO Candace Laing said in a statement.

I wish that I could tell you that she is wrong.

But I can’t.

Mexico is our second largest trade partner, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced that Mexico will impose retaliatory tariffs by the start of next week

Sheinbaum said she will announce retaliatory tariffs this weekend.

“We have decided to respond with tariff and non-tariff measures that I will announce on Sunday,” Sheinbaum said.

I can’t even begin to describe how much pain this trade war is going to cause for the Mexican economy.

Trade with the United States is one of the central pillars of their entire economic system.

China is our third largest trade partner, and they are imposing retaliatory tariffs on us too…

China announced Tuesday it would impose additional tariffs of up to 15% on some U.S. goods from March 10 and restrict exports to 15 U.S. companies.

The retaliatory measures from China’s Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Commerce came just as additional U.S. tariffs took effect on Chinese goods.

The additional Chinese tariffs largely cover U.S. agricultural goods, including corn and soybeans, which will be subject to new duties of 15% and 10%, respectively, according to the finance ministry’s website.

Throughout human history, trade wars have often preceded shooting wars.

Ominously, the Chinese are pledging to fight “to the bitter end”

In Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that if the U.S. “persists in waging a tariff war, a trade war, or any other kind of war, the Chinese side will fight them to the bitter end.”

Those are unusually strong words for the Chinese.

Usually they are much more restrained.

I think that they understand what is at stake.

We really could be heading into a global economic nightmare.

In fact, a senior official at the International Chamber of Commerce is claiming that we could soon be looking at “a downward spiral that puts us in 1930s trade-war territory”…

The world economy could face a crash similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s unless the U.S. rows back on its plans to impose steep tariffs on imports, a senior official at the International Chamber of Commerce warned.

“Our deep concern is that this could be the start of a downward spiral that puts us in 1930s trade-war territory,” said Andrew Wilson, deputy secretary-general of the ICC, which promotes global business and trade.

I don’t think that most Americans understand what we could potentially be facing.

According to CNBC, “a third of vehicle production in North America could be cut by next week”…

Roughly a third of vehicle production in North America could be cut by next week as a result of President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as automakers attempt to mitigate increased costs and buyers hold off on purchasing new cars and trucks.

That lost production would equate to roughly 20,000 units per day, according to a new analysis from prominent data and forecasting firm S&P Global Mobility.

That would be absolutely devastating to the auto industry.

And we are being told that the tariffs that are being imposed could add “as much as $12,200” to the cost of a new vehicle…

The 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, as well as an additional 10% tariff on imports from China, could drive up car costs by as much as $12,200 for some models, according to a report from Anderson Economic Group (AEG), a Michigan-based economic consultancy.

The broad-based tariffs are likely to fuel higher costs on multiple types of vehicles, including SUVs, small cars and electric vehicles, according to AEG’s analysis. Higher sticker prices would hit the auto market even as the typical car now costs close to a near-record high of $50,000, and would likely add more financial strain on inflation-weary consumers.

If you need to purchase a vehicle, I would recommend doing it sooner rather than later.

Food prices are about to go up dramatically as well

If looking at your grocery total makes you feel like your eyes are bulging out not unlike a cartoon, I have some bad news for you: Those same groceries are about to get a lot more expensive and fast. No, I’m not just talking about eggs, either, but rather pretty much every aisle of the grocery store. Why is that? Well, starting on March 4, 2025, imported products coming from Mexico and Canada will incur a 25% tariff, according to President Trump’s newest directives.

If that sounds alarming, that’s because it is. After all, Canada and Mexico are the largest suppliers of agricultural goods to the U.S. Scan your own pantry (and fridge) shelves, and you’ll likely notice no less than a few dozen different items our neighbors produce. In fact, 77% of our fresh produce comes from Mexico and 34% of our fresh meat comes from Canada, all of which (and more) will mostly likely soon come along with what will feel like a 25% surcharge. So while the immediate impact of the tariffs is still unknown (the brunt of the effects will fall on Mexico and Canada), experts say consumers should anticipate that grocery prices to rise in response.

Most U.S. households are already struggling to make ends meet thanks to how high food prices have risen.

The Wall Street Journal is telling us that even low price store brands are feeling the pain of reduced sales as consumers pull back on spending…

First, shoppers squeezed by inflation began ditching name-brand snacks and drinks in favor of lower-price store brands. But now, with costs for coffee, eggs and other basic grocery items surging, consumers are cutting out many cheaper items as well. That has TreeHouse Foods, one of the country’s largest manufacturers of private brands, feeling the pinch.

The maker of cookies, crackers, coffee and other goods for retailers such as Walmart, Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s and Target, gained ground in recent quarters as inflation pushed shoppers into cheaper food options. With sales growth now slowing significantly, TreeHouse is working to protect its margins by slashing costs and fine-tuning its list of products, anticipating that shoppers will remain stretched, at least for now.

Now food prices are likely to go significantly higher, and that is bad news for all of us.

Unfortunately, this could be the trigger that sends stock prices tumbling.

The stock price gains that we witnessed after Trump was elected are being wiped out, and the Dow fell another 670 points on Tuesday

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled for a second day as President Donald Trump’s tariffs left investors fearful of potential shockwaves for the economy.

The blue-chip average dropped 670.25 points, or 1.55%, building on Monday’s plunge of nearly 650 points. The Dow ended the session at 42,520.99. The S&P 500 dropped 1.22% and closed at 5,778.15 after notching its worst day of the year in the prior session. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.35% and finished at 18,285.16.

So what is the bottom line to all of this?

The bottom line is that the severe economic problems that we have been experiencing are about to greatly accelerate.

We were clearly warned that global chaos would soon erupt, and that is precisely what has happened.

Ultimately, what we are witnessing shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody.

But at this point the vast majority of the population is still asleep, and that is extremely unfortunate.

Michael’s blockbuster entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written eight other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”“End Times”“7 Year Apocalypse”“Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”“The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

Does This Chart Show That The Recession They Have Been Planning Has Already Begun?

Have you noticed that now there is a lot of chatter about how “Trump’s policies” threaten to plunge the U.S. economy into a recession?  The messaging that we are getting from so many prominent voices is so similar that one would be tempted to think that they are all getting their talking points from the same source.  Is some sort of a coordinated effort taking place behind the scenes?  Without a doubt, our economy is in really big trouble right now.  Our economic momentum was taking us in the wrong direction during the final stages of the Biden administration, and in recent weeks our problems have clearly accelerated.  About a month ago, I suggested that those that control the levers of financial power were up to something.  Could it be possible that what they have been planning is now playing out right in front of our eyes?

Within the past week, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has gone into a nosedive.

Honestly, I have never seen anything like this.

If you can believe it, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now projecting that U.S. GDP will shrink by 2.8 percent on an annualized basis during the first quarter of 2025…

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 1.3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, to 0.0 percent and 0.1 percent.

I have been arguing that the U.S. economy has been heading into recession territory for quite some time.

But the shift that we are witnessing in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is like something out of a science fiction novel.  Just look at this chart

It is almost as if someone flipped a switch and decided that it was time for the numbers to show that a recession has started.

Of course the truth is that we have been living through an economic horror show for years, and now the economic figures are becoming extremely dismal.

At this point, even CNN is admitting that our economy “is looking less and less stable by the day”…

The health of the US economy is looking less and less stable by the day.

Layoffs are rising. Consumer spending — the backbone of the economy — unexpectedly dropped in January. Consumer confidence has plunged. A key GDP forecast suddenly turned negative. And extreme fear is back on Wall Street, with stocks sliding last month.

All of that is true.

Yes, consumer spending really is going down.  In fact, we just witnessed the largest month over month drop in retail sales since January 2024

New data out Friday showed retail sales declined more than expected in the first month of 2025.

Headline retail sales fell 0.9% in January, more than the 0.2% decline economists had expected, according to Bloomberg data. This marked the largest month-over-month decline in retail sales since January 2024.

We are also seeing subprime delinquencies spike.  In fact, the delinquency rate for subprime auto loans that are at least 60 days delinquent just hit the highest level of all time

60+ day auto loan delinquencies in the subprime cohort (less credit-worthy borrowers) hit 6.56% in December 2024—the highest ever recorded. That’s up from 6.01% in November 2024 and 6.27% in 2023.

And as I have repeatedly tried to explain to my readers, the housing market has already fallen into a depression.

In January, pending home sales dropped to an all time record low

Contracts to buy previously owned homes fell to a record low in January as prospective buyers were constrained by higher mortgage rates and house prices.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Thursday that its Pending Home Sales Index, which is based on signed contracts, declined by 4.6% last month to 70.6, an all-time low.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, falling by 1.3% in January. Pending home sales were down 5.2% from a year ago.

Things weren’t even this bad during the Great Recession.

Alarmingly, approximately one out of every seven pending home sales were cancelled in January.  That represents “the highest cancellation rate for this time of year since at least 2017”

More home purchases are being canceled, especially in the southeastern part of the country. Just over 41,000 U.S. home-purchase agreements fell through in January, equal to 14.3% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s up from 13.4% a year earlier, and the highest cancellation rate for this time of year since at least 2017.

Are you starting to get the picture?

We are in so much trouble.

And now here come the tariffs.

After President Trump confirmed that enormous tariffs on goods coming from Mexico and Canada would go into effect at midnight, stock prices started to crash

The stock market plummeted after President Donald Trump confirmed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go into effect at midnight.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index lost 2.1 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.3 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 3.2 percent in afternoon trading.

Speaking from the White House alongside Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump confirmed 25 percent tariffs on America’s largest trading partners would start on Tuesday.

A lot of pain is on the way.

We are dependent on the rest of the world for so many of the things that we purchase on a regular basis.

Sadly, this even includes food.

For a long time, we exported far more food than we imported, but now the reverse is actually true.

In 2025, it is expected that we will run an agricultural trade deficit of 49 billion dollars

The U.S., known for being a global agriculture powerhouse, has never imported so much food.

Inbound shipments of everything from avocados to coffee and sugar are expected to drive the country’s agriculture trade deficit to a record $49 billion this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its trade outlook report. At the same time, America’s most widely grown crops have been losing overseas markets over the past decades.

It’s a stark turnaround for a nation that once used its abundant food supplies as a tool of statecraft, with the U.S. now facing a future of persistent agricultural trade deficits.

We consume far more than we produce, we buy far more stuff than we make, we have piled up the largest mountain of debt in the history of the world, and we depend on the rest of the world to send us what we need.

For more than a decade I have been desperately trying to get people to understand that we are literally committing national suicide.

When will America finally wake up?

Global events are moving in a very troubling direction very rapidly, and the clock is ticking…

Michael’s blockbuster entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written eight other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”“End Times”“7 Year Apocalypse”“Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”“The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.