The Economy

If We Are Experiencing Severe Shortages Now, How Bad Will Things Get When The Economy Starts Tanking Again?

May 6, 2021May 6, 2021 by Michael

Inflation and shortages are the two big stories for the U.S. economy this week. In recent days I have done multiple articles about inflation, and so today I want to focus on the widespread shortages that we are currently witnessing. At this moment, the U.S. economy is experiencing more shortages than it did at any point during 2020. I know that statement sounds quite outlandish, but it is true. During the early stages of the pandemic, there were temporary shortages of toilet paper, hand sanitizer and other items, but now there are severe shortages throughout many sectors of the economy, and quite a few of those shortages will not be so temporary.

On Thursday, Business Insider published a list of some of the most serious shortages that we are going through at the moment…

-Computer chips
-Used cars and rental cars
-Gas
-Plastics and palm oil
-Truckers and rideshare drivers
-Homes and vacation houses
-Lumber
-Household products like toilet paper and tampons
-Furniture
-Chicken
-Bacon and hot dogs
-Imported foods like cheese, coffee, and olive oil
-Chlorine
-Corn

That is quite a list!

The COVID pandemic suppressed output for many industries for an extended period of time, and meanwhile our “leaders” have been pumping trillions and trillions of fresh dollars into the system.

So now we have way too many dollars chasing way too few goods and services, and this is causing tremendous inflation and very painful shortages.

Just look at what is happening to the steel industry. Changes in supply and demand have pushed up the price of steel to “nearly triple the 20-year average”…

After bottoming out around $460 last year, US benchmark hot-rolled coil steel prices are now sitting at around $1,500 a ton, a record high that is nearly triple the 20-year average.

Steel stocks are on fire. US Steel (X), which crashed to a record low last March amid bankruptcy fears, has skyrocketed 200% in just 12 months. Nucor (NUE) has spiked 76% this year alone.

Much more importantly for the average American, there are now chicken shortages all over the country, and prices have soared into the stratosphere…

After a year promoting takeout wings and crispy chicken sandwiches, restaurants including KFC, Wingstop Inc. and Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. say they are paying steep prices for scarce poultry. Some are running out of or limiting sales of tenders, filets and wings, cutting into some of their most reliable sales.

Independent eateries and bars have gone weeks without wings, owners say. Chicken breast prices have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, and wing prices have hit records, according to market-research firm Urner Barry.

“Weeks without wings?”

Oh the humanity!

If we don’t get this crisis under control soon, the U.S. may not be able to set yet another all-time record for obesity in 2021.

Propane tanks and chlorine tablets are also in short supply. As a result, many Americans may not be able to enjoy their grills and their pools as they normally do this summer…

A nationwide shortage of pool products is making chlorine tablets and propane tanks hard to come by and increasing prices right as the summer months approach.

“In this heat, if you don’t take care of your pool properly algae will start growing,” said David Sarafyan, a pool supply store employee. “Your pool will pretty much become a swamp.”

Hopefully at least some of these shortages will start to disappear in the weeks ahead.

But if we are seeing this many shortages during a “recovery”, what in the world is our economy going to look like when things start getting really bad again?

This should be a wake up call for all of us, because things are going to start getting really bad again a lot sooner than many people think.

But for now, Americans are swimming in cash thanks to the trillions and trillions of dollars that have been showered on them.

All of that money has to go somewhere, and unfortunately it is going into some of the most ridiculous things imaginable.

My regular readers already know how I feel about Dogecoin. It is not a “currency” by any stretch of the imagination. I have been tempted to call it a “collectible”, but normally a “collectible” is something that you can hold in your hands.

At least speculators were chasing something real during “Tulip mania” in 1636 and 1637. Dogecoin is just a bunch of digital ones and zeros.

Dogecoin does not have any innate value whatsoever, but thanks to Elon Musk and a bunch of Reddit fanboys, the price of Dogecoin is up more than 100 percent this week alone.

For the year, it is up more than 14,000 percent…

That means an investor who paid in $1,000 on January 1 would now have around $120,000.

This year alone it has soared over 14,000%, from $0.00468 on December 31, taking it past more widely used cryptocurrencies such as the Tether stablecoin and XRP to become the fourth-largest by market capitalization.

Yesterday I wrote about something that makes me want to vomit, but now I think that I have found something that may make me want to vomit even more.

If you can believe it, Dogecoin now has a market capitalization that is greater than Moderna, Ford Motor Company or Twitter…

A market capitalization of $78 billion puts Dogecoin, founded in 2013, ahead of other more well established brands and companies including Sherwin-Williams which is valued at $75.8 billion; Dell Technologies, value $75 billion; Moderna, value $63.1 billion; Ford Motor Company, valued $45.2 billion; and Twitter, value $42.1 billion.

The mascot from Pets.com eventually came to symbolize the collapse of the dotcom bubble, and I think that the stupid dog on the Dogecoin logo should symbolize this current financial bubble when it finally implodes.

Tomorrow, more keyboard commandos will pour their stimulus checks into Dogecoin hoping to get rich quick.

Those that invested early and get out in time will make a killing. But anyone that does not get out in time is going to take a major bath.

Of course the exact same thing could be said for our financial markets as a whole. Everyone knows that a crash is inevitable, and when it happens it will be the greatest loss of paper wealth in all of U.S. history.

But for now, speculators look like geniuses, and happy days are here again on Wall Street.

Enjoy it while it lasts, because it is just a matter of time before the bubble bursts, and then the pain will begin.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael Snyder and my brand new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available on Amazon.com. In addition to my new book, I have written four others that are available on Amazon.com including The Beginning Of The End, Get Prepared Now, and Living A Life That Really Matters. (#CommissionsEarned) By purchasing the books you help to support the work that my wife and I are doing, and by giving it to others you help to multiply the impact that we are having on people all over the globe. I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe. I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article. The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions. I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook, Twitter and Parler, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help. During these very challenging times, people will need hope more than ever before, and it is our goal to share the gospel of Jesus Christ with as many people as we possibly can.

What Will You Do When Inflation Forces U.S. Households To Spend 40 Percent Of Their Incomes On Food?

May 5, 2021May 5, 2021 by Michael

Did you know that the price of corn has risen 142 percent in the last 12 months? Of course corn is used in hundreds of different products we buy at the grocery store, and so everyone is going to feel the pain of this price increase. But it isn’t just the price of corn that is going crazy. We are seeing food prices shoot up dramatically all across the industry, and experts are warning that this is just the very beginning. So if you think that food prices are bad now, just wait, because they are going to get a whole lot worse.

Typically, Americans spend approximately 10 percent of their disposable personal incomes on food. The following comes directly from the USDA website…

In 2019, Americans spent an average of 9.5 percent of their disposable personal incomes on food—divided between food at home (4.9 percent) and food away from home (4.6 percent). Between 1960 and 1998, the average share of disposable personal income spent on total food by Americans, on average, fell from 17.0 to 10.1 percent, driven by a declining share of income spent on food at home.

Needless to say, the poorest Americans spend more of their incomes on food than the richest Americans.

According to the USDA, the poorest households spent an average of 36 percent of their disposable personal incomes on food in 2019…

As their incomes rise, households spend more money on food, but it represents a smaller overall budget share. In 2019, households in the lowest income quintile spent an average of $4,400 on food (representing 36.0 percent of income), while households in the highest income quintile spent an average of $13,987 on food (representing 8.0 percent of income).

Needless to say, the final numbers for 2020 will be quite a bit higher, and many believe that eventually the percentage of disposable personal income that the average U.S. household spends on food will reach 40 percent.

That would mean that many poor households would end up spending well over 50 percent of their personal disposable incomes just on food.

At one time that would have been unimaginable, but now everything is changing. As I noted above, the price of corn his increased 142 percent since this time last year…

Corn prices have jumped roughly 142% over the past year to $7.56 per bushel, the highest price seen in eight years for the crop.

A drought in Brazil and increased demand in China have put pressure on global suppliers.

In other areas we are seeing more moderate inflation, but overall we just witnessed the largest increase in food inflation “in almost nine years”…

The average prices in March of 2021 for pork chops and chicken breasts are both up more than 10% compared to March of 2020. Eggs and cheddar cheese are both up 6%.

Looking at all consumer goods as a whole, the latest inflation data in the Consumer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the largest month-to-month increase in almost nine years.

Meanwhile, the price of lumber just continues to shoot even higher.

In New Jersey, one man says that the total cost of lumber used in building his new home will reach $70,000…

Tom McCarthy can’t finish building a home in Bergen County, New Jersey because of the lumber shortage.

“There are pieces of wood that we can’t find,” said McCarthy, a real estate broker with the Chen Agency who also builds homes with his father on the side.

McCarthy estimates the cost of lumber for the home will hit $70,000, nearly double the cost of building the exact same home in a nearby town just eight months ago.

Isn’t that nuts?

Instead of building a new home, you could try buying an existing one instead, but real estate prices in many areas have gotten completely insane.

In northern California, one house recently sold for more than a million dollars over listing price…

When a house in Berkeley sold for more than $1 million over its list price in late March 2021, it was covered in media outlets across the Bay Area, including this one.

While the Berkeley sale was particularly sensational — it sold for double its list price and received 29 offers — these individual stories are becoming more common in today’s real estate market, according to recent data and anecdotes from real estate professionals.

I never imagined that I would see such a thing happen.

But one real estate agent says that such wild bidding wars are becoming increasingly common…

And that’s especially true in the East Bay. “People are not surprised when a home goes $1 million over,” said Josh Dickinson, the founder of real estate agency Zip Code East Bay. “When my clients see a house for $1.9 million they’re almost conditioned to think it’ll go over $3 million in Piedmont or North Berkeley.”

This is what the beginning stages of hyperinflation look like, but Federal Reserve officials insist that we have nothing to be concerned about.

In fact, Eric Rosengren just told the press that the crazy inflation we are seeing now “is likely to prove temporary”…

Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren in an interview with MarketWatch on Wednesday dismissed talk of scaling back asset purchases as premature, and said temporary factors pushing up inflation this spring won’t last.

“My view is that this acceleration in the rate of price increases is likely to prove temporary,” Rosengren said Wednesday.

Do you believe him?

I don’t.

As Simon Black has pointed out, the federal government is just going to continue to borrow and spend trillions upon trillions of dollars…

This is the big one. The US federal government is hoping to spend a whopping $11 TRILLION this year, between the regular budget, COVID stimulus already passed, and all the new legislation they’re proposing.

And it’s only May.

Obviously Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money. So they have to borrow it.

Almost everybody loved it when the federal government started sending out big, fat stimulus checks.

But you aren’t going to love it when a cart of food costs you $400 at the grocery store.

Whenever the government hands out “free money”, someone has got to pay for it, and one way we are paying for it is through higher prices.

If you do not believe that this is a major national crisis yet, you will soon, because it won’t be too long before most of the country is loudly complaining about how nightmarish inflation has become.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

Skyrocketing Lumber Prices Have Increased The Average Price Of A New Home By $35,872 In 1 Year

May 3, 2021May 3, 2021 by Michael

Do any of you remember when you could buy an entire house for $35,000? There was a time in America when middle class Americans could buy a house and have it paid off in just a few years. But now existing home prices have soared into the stratosphere, and lumber prices are making it ridiculously expensive to build new homes. As you will see below, skyrocketing lumber prices have driven up the average price of a new home in the United States by almost $36,000 over the past 12 months. That is absolutely nuts, but everyone agrees that even more inflation is on the way.

Of course it isn’t just lumber prices that are going haywire. In California, the price of gasoline has almost reached five dollars a gallon in some areas, and the price for premium gasoline has almost reached six dollars…

Gas prices continued to increase in or around Southern California for the ninth day in a row. And that appeared to be a similar trend nationwide where other states were seeing an increase as well.

The average price of a gallon of regular gas in the Beverly Grove area on Saturday was $4.99 and $5.99 for premium.

We are being told that one of the reasons why the price of gasoline is spiking is due to a lack of tank truck drivers…

According to the National Tank Truck Carriers trade group, up to 25% of trucks are parked around the country because there are not enough qualified tank truck drivers. That number is up 15% from the beginning of last summer.

The demand for drivers took a hit when pandemic-induced lockdowns triggered steep declines in the gasoline market, and drivers opted for other jobs. However, the return to pre-pandemic numbers has been further undermined by unemployment benefits and stimulus checks keeping people away from jumping back into the workforce.

You can thank our politicians in Washington for this mess, and hopefully the driver shortage will just be temporary.

But if you think that the price of gasoline is bad now, just wait until the big war in the Middle East officially starts.

On Monday, the price of lumber continued to escalate dramatically. According to the Wall Street Journal, lumber futures are now “more than four times the typical price this time of year”…

Lumber futures delivery later this month ended Monday at $1,575.60 per thousand board feet, a record and more than four times the typical price this time of year. Futures rose by the daily maximum allowed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange during nine of April’s 21 trading sessions.

But don’t worry, because the Federal Reserve insists that they have everything under control.

Hopefully they are on top of things, because we are rapidly getting into crisis territory. As I mentioned above, rising lumber prices have driven the average price of a new home up by nearly $36,000 in the last 12 months…

Skyrocketing lumber prices that have tripled over the past 12 months have driven the price of an average new single-family home to rise by $35,872, according to new analysis by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), with the price spike threatening to hobble the momentum of the U.S. housing market, one of the bright stars of the recovery from the pandemic recession.

Thanks to the completely and utterly insane policies of our “leaders”, high inflation is here to stay, and it is going to be exceedingly painful.

At this point, even Warren Buffett is acknowledging that inflation is starting to become a major problem…

BECKY QUICK: I will ask this question from Chris Freed from Philadelphia. And whoever wants to take this on stage, “From raw material purchases by Berkshire subsidiaries, are you seeing signs of inflation beginning to increase?”

WARREN BUFFETT: Let me answer that, then Greg can get more into that. We’re seeing very substantial inflation – it’s very interesting. I mean, we’re raising prices. People are raising prices to us. And it’s being accepted. Take home-building. I mean, you know, the cost of– we’ve got nine home builders in addition to our manufactured housing operation, which is the largest in the country.

So we really do a lot of housing. The costs are just up, up, up. Steel costs, you know, just every day, they’re going up.

Flooding the system with trillions of new dollars was a really, really bad idea, but those that control the levers of power did it anyway.

Now we have way too many dollars chasing too few goods and services, and that is driving up prices and causing widespread shortages. The following comes from an article about those shortages that was just posted by the Wall Street Journal…

Consumers are splurging on cars and furniture—and facing extended waits for delivery. Restaurants and gyms are reopening—and struggling to find workers. Factories and home builders are trying to ramp up—but are short on semiconductors or raw materials.

Our “leaders” are promising that the shortages are just temporary.

And they are also promising that the price spikes are just temporary too.

If everything that they are saying is true, everything will go back to “normal” eventually.

Do you believe them?

In Venezuela today, just about everyone is a millionaire.

But just about everyone is also living in poverty because the currency is essentially worthless.

For years, pundits have been warning about “the death of the dollar”, but now our “leaders” seem determined to murder our currency as rapidly as they can.

I wish that I could say that there is a quick and easy fix to this mess, but the truth is that there is no going back now.

The Federal Reserve has got to keep pumping more money into the financial system or the stock market will crash.

And the federal government is going to continue borrowing and spending trillions of dollars that we do not currently have in a desperate attempt to keep the population happy.

This story is heading for a very tragic ending, and if you can’t see that by now I don’t know what else to say.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

Get Ready For The Most Painful Inflation Since The Jimmy Carter Years Of The 1970s

May 2, 2021May 2, 2021 by Michael

If you are too young to have been alive during the 1970s, you might want to read up on that decade, because current economic conditions are starting to become eerily similar to what we experienced back then. In the 1970s, an energy crisis caused tremendously long lines at gas stations all over the country. In 2021, we don’t have a shortage of gasoline, but shortages of other key products are starting to cause very serious problems. In fact, as you will see below, even the Biden administration is publicly admitting that there will be “supply chain disruptions” in the months ahead. The 1970s also featured extremely painful inflation, and I certainly don’t need to tell you that prices have been rising very aggressively lately. In fact, Bloomberg is using the term “skyrocketing” to describe the “upward trajectory” of commodity prices…

The prices of raw materials used to make almost everything are skyrocketing, and the upward trajectory looks set to continue as the world economy roars back to life.

From steel and copper to corn and lumber, commodities started 2021 with a bang, surging to levels not seen for years. The rally threatens to raise the cost of goods from the lunchtime sandwich to gleaming skyscrapers. It’s also lit the fuse on the massive reflation trade that’s gripped markets this year and pushed up inflation expectations. With the U.S. economy pumped up on fiscal stimulus, and Europe’s economy starting to reopen as its vaccination rollout gets into gear, there’s little reason to expect a change in direction.

Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has pumped more money into the financial system than ever before, and the U.S. government has been on a wild spending spree that makes Zimbabwe look fiscally conservative.

It was inevitable that this was going to cause rampant inflation, but the numbers that we are starting to see are so crazy they are difficult to believe. A couple weeks ago, Charlie Bilello posted a summary of how commodity prices have changed over the past year…

Lumber: +265%
WTI Crude: +210%
Gasoline: +182%
Brent Crude +163%
Heating Oil: +107%
Corn: +84%
Copper: +83%
Soybeans: +72%
Silver: +65%
Sugar: +59%
Cotton: +54%
Platinum: +52%
Natural Gas: +43%
Palladium: +32%
Wheat: +19%
Coffee: +13%

At this point, nobody can deny what is happening, and even the Biden administration is admitting that there will be “supply chain disruptions” and “transitory increases in prices”…

Council of Economic Advisers chair Cecilia Rouse said on this week’s broadcast of “Fox News Sunday” that they expect to see some “transitory inflation” as America is coming out of the coronavirus pandemic.

Anchor Chris Wallace said, “Can you guarantee with all this spending that we are not going to have a new round of overheating the economy and serious inflation?

Rouse said, “These are very serious concerns, and we know that coming out of an extremely deep recession that there are going to be bumps along the way. We expect that there is going to be supply chain disruptions. That will cause some transitory increases in prices.”

Biden administration officials would like for us to believe that this inflationary period will just be “temporary”, but exactly how do they plan to achieve that?

Do they have a plan to somehow pull trillions of dollars out of the system?

No, they are planning to borrow and spend trillions more.

In the 1970s, double-digit inflation made headlines for years on end. Many people believe that we are well on the way to a return to such levels, but according to John Williams of shadowstats.com, we are already there. In fact, if inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, we would already be in double-digit territory.

And for certain items, we are already seeing inflation that is off the charts.

For example, the price of corn is up more than 30 percent so far in 2021…

From tortillas to cornbread, some of your favorite corn-based dishes may go up in price late this summer.

Corn has been leading the rally among grain commodities, rising more than 30% in 2021, according to MarketWatch.

Corn is used in hundreds of different products at the grocery store, and so this is going to dramatically affect the food budgets of millions upon millions of American families.

Meanwhile, we continue to see more shortages start to emerge. Last week, the mainstream media was freaking out over our new nationwide chicken shortage…

A chicken shortage is taking place across the country, much of it fueled by the chicken sandwich craze at fast food chains such as KFC and Bojangles, which are having a hard time keeping up with soaring demand. Experts say February’s massive winter storm in Texas also contributed to gaps in the supply chain.

That shortage is supposed to be “temporary”, but analysts are warning that the current computer chip shortage could last until 2022.

But despite all of the problems that I just detailed, Americans are increasingly optimistic about the future.

In fact, one recent poll found that a whopping 64 percent of all Americans “are optimistic about the direction of the country”…

President Joe Biden completes his first hundred days in office with a country that is more optimistic about the coming year, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans (64%) are optimistic about the direction of the country in the poll, which was conducted by Ipsos in partnership with ABC News using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel.

And Americans are also extremely optimistic about the stock market. If you can believe it, Americans now have more of their assets invested in the stock market than ever before…

Individual investors are holding more stocks than ever before as major indexes climb to fresh highs. They are also upping the ante by borrowing to magnify their bets or increasingly buying on small dips in the market.

Stockholdings among U.S. households increased to 41% of their total financial assets in April, the highest level on record. That is according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Federal Reserve data going back to 1952 that includes 401(k) retirement accounts.

Most Americans seem to believe that happy days are here again, and the stage is set for an immense nationwide emotional meltdown once this “bubble of hope” inevitably bursts.

Anyone that believes that things are going to get better has a fundamental misunderstanding of the times in which we live.

We have just been through the most painful year for the U.S. economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and I know that most people would like to see things turn around, but that simply is not going to happen.

Very dark days are ahead, and those that are trusting Joe Biden to save America are going to be bitterly, bitterly disappointed.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

The Mass Exodus From The West Coast Is Driving Home Prices In Idaho To Insane Levels

April 27, 2021April 27, 2021 by Michael

Lots of people have been moving away from the west coast over the last decade, but we have never seen the sort of mass exodus that we have seen over the last year. This mass exodus has created some extremely hot real estate markets in desirable areas located away from the coast, and according to the Wall Street Journal the hottest real estate market in the entire country right now is Coeur d’Alene, Idaho. Any house in the area that gets placed on the market is likely to spark a bidding war, and according to the Coeur d’Alene Association of Realtors the median price of a home in the region has risen by a whopping 47 percent in the last 12 months…

The median sales price in the Coeur d’Alene region rose in March to $476,900, up 47% from a year earlier, according to the Coeur d’Alene Association of Realtors. Finding a home to buy in the metro area of about 166,000 is getting tougher: Inventory of homes for sale shrank by 71% to just 337 homes. That amounts to less than a month’s supply.

“That’s not enough to go around—therefore, every listing gets 30 offers,” Ms. Johnson said. “Since the pandemic, our market has been crazy.”

In particular, the demand for high end homes is off the charts.

During the first two months of this year the number of million dollar homes sold in the Coeur d’Alene area was more than five times higher than the number sold during the first two months of 2020…

That has helped boost the number of high-end sales. In the first two months of the year, 67 homes in the area sold for $1 million and above, up from 12 sales in that price range in the first two months of 2020, Ms. Williams said.

Of course the Coeur d’Alene region is not the only extremely hot real estate market that has been fueled by this mass exodus.

According to the Wall Street Journal, these cities round out the top 5…

Austin, Texas

Springfield, Ohio

Billings, Montana

Spokane, Washington

It is interesting to note that three of the top five hottest markets are in the Northwest. For a variety of reasons, large numbers of people are being drawn to the region, and this has both positives and negatives.

If people want to make positive contributions to their new communities, that can be a good thing, but in too many cases new arrivals want to make their new communities just like the hellholes that they are escaping from.

According to Realtor.com, a large percentage of the people viewing Coeur d’Alene property listings are located in major cities such as Los Angeles and Seattle…

About 70% of page views on Coeur d’Alene property listings came from outside the state in the first quarter, up from about 66% a year earlier, according to Realtor.com. The top metro areas for interest in Coeur d’Alene listings were Seattle, Spokane and Los Angeles.

Vast numbers of “west coast refugees” are fleeing to Texas as well. In fact, one real estate executive based in Dallas says that “70% of the people moving in are from California”…

“It’s like waiting for people to get an iPhone when it comes out,” he added. “We have lines out the door for people seeing houses all across all sorts of price points.”

Healy, who is based in Dallas, said hundreds of people per day are moving to his city. He pointed out that 70% of the people moving in are from California and increasing “luxury price points.”

Overall, home prices are much higher in the U.S. today than they were last year.

In fact, we just learned that the Case-Shiller Home Price Index has risen 12 percent over the last 12 months…

House prices soared by 12.0% from a year ago, the biggest increase since February 2006, near the peak of Housing Bubble 1, according to today’s National Case-Shiller Home Price Index for “February,” which reflects the three-month average of sales recorded in public records in December, January, and February.

But the Federal Reserve says that inflation is very low and that there is nothing to be concerned about.

Used car prices are escalating rapidly as well. In fact, the Manheim U.S. Used Vehicle Value Index is up 52 percent over the last year…

Used car prices in the U.S. continue to skyrocket as a result of both the country’s economic recovery and an ongoing supply crunch.

The Manheim U.S. Used Vehicle Value Index has continued to soar through the month of April, to a new record, as a result of the worsening of a semiconductor shortage, low lot inventories, and a continuing post-Covid “boom”.

The index was up 6.8% in the first 15 days of April, Bloomberg noted. The index is up an astounding 52% from the same time last year to 191.4.

But the Federal Reserve says that inflation is very low and that there is nothing to be concerned about.

The price of gasoline just keeps rising as well. It has jumped 9 percent since last month and it is up more than 22 percent overall since this time last year…

Gas prices jumped over 9% in the past month and they’re not expected to slow down anytime soon.

Gas prices are up 22.5% from the previous year and were the biggest contributor to an overall increase in goods and services in the nation, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index. Fuel prices pushed a 1-month increase in the overall price of goods for March that was the highest in nearly 9 years.

But the Federal Reserve says that inflation is very low and that there is nothing to be concerned about.

Do you believe the Fed?

I think that Fed officials should be forced to shop for lumber if they want to try to keep convincing us that inflation is very low.

According to Fortune, the price of lumber has shot up 232 percent since the start of the pandemic.

232 percent!

That is just nuts.

By the way, the book that I published last year warned way in advance that inflation would get way out of control.

Events are playing out just as we anticipated, and a lot more inflation is on the way.

Whenever a crisis arises, our leaders always flood the system with more money, and they are pushing us dangerously close to the point of no return.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

Tens Of Millions Of “Working Poor” Americans Are Suffering Very Deeply Due To Biden’s Economic Policies

April 25, 2021April 25, 2021 by Michael

The Biden administration and the corporate media insist that we are witnessing an “economic recovery”, but it sure doesn’t feel like any sort of a “recovery” for America’s working poor. Tens of millions of working Americans are trying to survive from month to month on stagnant or declining wages at a time when Biden’s economic policies have caused the cost of living to soar. Our leaders in Washington always seem to think that spending more money is the solution to almost every crisis, and in recent months we have seen the money supply grow at an unprecedented rate. Those that have been showered with government money are grateful, but all of this new money is also going to make life much tougher for those on the very bottom of the economic food chain.

Just because someone “has a job” does not mean that individual is doing okay in this economy. Greyhound bus driver Marvia Robinson has never had to file for unemployment benefits during the COVID pandemic, but her wages declined substantially, and she got way behind on her rent…

Last year, as the COVID-19 pandemic brought the nation’s travel economy to a standstill, Robinson’s hours were. cut, her pay dwindled – to as little as $65 for one two-week period – and she fell behind on her rent. By January, she owed $4,920.38. So she emailed Invitation Homes to ask if it would accept funds from a county program that gives landlords $4,000 in back rent.

In an email response reviewed by Reuters, Invitation Homes told Robinson the company was not participating in the program “due to the landlord restrictions,” without explaining what that meant. The company then sent Robinson an email with links to information about other government and nonprofit relief programs, as well as payday lenders, food banks, the Coalition for the Homeless and ways to make money by selling hair, plasma and donor eggs.

Various eviction moratoriums are protecting multitudes of people that are way behind on their rent, but they didn’t help in Marvia’s case, and she was tossed out on the street on March 9th…

In February, an Orange County judge approved Robinson’s eviction. On March 9, two sheriff’s deputies showed up at Robinson’s taupe two-story rental south of the city, bolted the doors and changed the locks.

So what is Marvia supposed to do now?

She works extremely hard, but it still wasn’t enough to keep her from being tossed out into the cold.

Overall, Moody’s Analytics is projecting that 7 million Americans will owe a total of $40 billion in back rent by the end of May.

Like Marvia, many of those people actually have jobs.

When I asked Google how many Americans are classified as “working poor”, it gave me a number from 2018…

About 38.1 million people, or 11.8 percent of the nation’s population, lived below the official poverty level in 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Needless to say, that number is almost certainly far higher by now thanks to the economic depression that we have experienced over the past year.

And guess which state now has the highest level of “functional poverty”?…

As the California Legislature churned toward adjournment last week, its members received another reminder that the state’s most vexing — and shameful — socioeconomic malady persists.

The Census Bureau reported that California still has the highest level of functional poverty of any state, averaging 18.2% of its 40 million residents impoverished during the three preceding years.

The state that has the most tech billionaires also has the most people living in poverty right now.

Isn’t that ironic?

In their desperation to jumpstart the economy, our leaders in Washington have been creating, borrow and spending money like this is no tomorrow.

Just look at what this has done to our money supply. The following chart which comes directly from the Federal Reserve shows the stunning growth of M2 since the beginning of the pandemic…

Of course this was going to drive the cost of living higher, and food prices are one thing that I am watching very, very carefully.

Just a few days ago, Bloomberg published an article entitled “The Grocery Price Shock Is Coming to a Store Near You”…

Corn, wheat, soybeans, vegetable oils: A small handful of commodities form the backbone of much of the world’s diet and they’re dramatically more expensive, flashing alarm signals for global shopping budgets.

This week, the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index — which tracks key farm products — surged the most in almost nine years, driven by a rally in crop futures. With global food prices already at the highest since mid-2014, this latest jump is being closely watched because staple crops are a ubiquitous influence on grocery shelves — from bread and pizza dough to meat and even soda.

Food prices have been aggressively rising for 10 months in a row, and there are several factors that are leading analysts to project that they will continue to rise in the months ahead…

The most recent crop spikes follow months of price gains fueled by booming import demand from China. Corn prices have doubled in the past year, while soybeans are up about 80% and wheat 30%. With China’s purchases continuing and a spate of adverse weather conditions threatening crops in Brazil and the U.S., there are few signs of respite.

As food prices move higher and higher, this will put additional stress on tens of millions of “working poor” Americans that are barely scraping by from month to month.

The good news is that nobody in the U.S. is starving at this point, but the same can’t be said about the rest of the world.

Global hunger is on the rise, and one expert is warning that things are starting to get really bad out there…

“The relentless rise in prices acts as a misery multiplier, driving millions deeper into hunger and desperation,” Chris Nikoi, the World Food Programme’s regional director for West Africa, said earlier this month. It’s “pushing a basic meal beyond the reach of millions of poor families who were already struggling to get by.”

As I detail in my most recent book, we are moving into a time when there will be horrific global famines.

We all know this is coming, and so we should be getting prepared ahead of time.

Of course there are tens of millions of Americans that can’t afford to get prepared because they don’t have any extra money at all each month.

With each passing day, more Americans are falling out of the middle class and into poverty, and everything that our leaders in Washington do seems to make things even worse.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

The Price Of Plywood Is Absolutely Ridiculous – But It Is Also A Sign Of The Times…

April 20, 2021April 20, 2021 by Michael

Would you pay $100 for a sheet of plywood? I know that sounds absolutely crazy, but we are almost there. The price of plywood has been soaring into the stratosphere in recent weeks, and analysts are telling us that it will remain high for the foreseeable future. Memes about plywood have started to pop up all over social media, but this is no joking matter. These extraordinarily high prices are causing a lot of pain in the homebuilding industry, and many Americans have had to postpone construction plans indefinitely. Unfortunately, our national leaders continue to flood the system with even more new money, and that is going to cause even more extreme inflation in the months and years to come.

Prior to the pandemic, any discussions about plywood on social media were likely to be painfully boring, but now everything has changed. Thanks to skyrocketing prices, plywood has suddenly become a very hot topic, and one post on Facebook that circulated quite widely ended up getting national attention…

“Food for thought — 3/4″ Plywood Standard:

March 2020 – $37.98 /sheet

February 2021 – $72.49 /sheet

March 2021 – $83.49 /sheet

April 2021 – $95.98 /sheet

That is 252% price increase on one of the most used piece of common lumber for construction.”

Not surprisingly, this post got flagged on Facebook for being “misinformation”.

But then PolitiFact looked into this, and they confirmed that the price of plywood really has risen to such levels…

Shawn Church, editor of Random Lengths, which publishes price data on the wood products industry, gave us figures for 23/32-inch plywood produced in the Pacific Northwest and the South.

The price in the Northwest for Fir 23/32-inch sheathing for the first week of April was $1,610 per thousand square feet, up 287% from $560 a year earlier.

In the South, the price of that panel was $1,500 per thousand square feet, up 230% from $455 one year ago.

Personally, I could never see myself shelling out $100 for one piece of plywood, because that just seems nuts.

But our world has become a much different place over the past year. The system has been absolutely flooded with new money, and there is no going back to the way that things once were.

Let me give you another example of the sort of extreme inflation that we have been witnessing. According to the Guardian, an old pair of Kanye West’s Air Yeezy sneakers that are being auctioned off have been valued at one million dollars…

Kanye West’s Air Yeezy sneakers are being auctioned for $1m, making them Sotheby’s most expensive shoe listing ever. They are expected to break the record set by a pair of Nike Air Jordan 1s worn by Michael Jordan, which sold for $615,000 last year.

The black, size 12 Nike Air Yeezy 1 prototypes, designed by West and Nike’s Mark Smith in 2007, were groundbreaking. Aesthetically they altered the shape and form of sneakers in the decade that followed.

Who in the world would be dumb enough to pay a million dollars for a pair of old sneakers?

That is literally insane.

Speaking of insane, Dogecoin now has a total market value of approximately 50 billion dollars…

Dogecoin, which is pronounced dohj-coin, has already leaped to roughly 39 cents, up more than 8,000% for 2021 so far. That towers over the roughly 11% return for the U.S. stock market, which itself is getting criticism for rising too high. Collectively, dogecoins have a total market value of roughly $50 billion, according to CoinDesk. That puts it on par with Dow Inc. or Kimberly-Clark, which makes Kleenex and Huggies.

Are you kidding me?

Dogecoin doesn’t even pretend to be a serious cryptocurrency. It was started as a total joke, and nobody ever thought that it would have any real value.

But thanks to Elon Musk and other proponents, Dogecoin really has gone to the moon.

In the end, I believe that Dogecoin will be the “Pets.com” of this financial bubble, but for the moment Dogecoin investors are loving life.

Of course it won’t last, and those that are comparing it to “tulip mania” are right on target…

“This is like a cross between a pyramid scheme and tulip mania,” one user on Reddit, named hazardousmeme, said in a discussion about Dogecoin after another user asked if it’s a safe investment. “Safe is the absolute last thing that this is.”

“Let’s hope this goes up!” another Reddit user, Enough-Construction5, wrote after saying they bought $500 worth of Dogecoin. “Better than putting it into a slot machine!”

No, it is exactly like putting it into a slot machine.

Maybe social media hype can drive Dogecoin even higher, but eventually it is going to zero.

So I hope that the guy that is currently holding close to 15 billion dollars worth of Dogecoin is able to sell while he still can…

There is little we can add here that David Einhorn didn’t already say yesterday, but it’s probably worth noting for those keeping track of where in the bubble we are now, that in the magical world of dogecoin – a cryptocurrency that was specifically created as a joke spoof on the crypto concept and which has been promoted aggressive by such luminaries as Elon Musk – there is now a holder residing at address “DH5yaieqoZN36fDVciNyRueRGvGLR3mr7L” who owns 36,711,935,369.11 dogecoins or whatever the plural is, and whose holdings – which started accumulating back in Febriary 2019 – after the latest surge in dogegoin which has sent the joke crypto up 150% in the past 24 hours and 5x in the past week…

… are worth just under $15 billion.

In the old days, investing was all about fundamentals, and rational investors were often greatly rewarded.

But now the “markets” are all about meme stocks, crypto speculation and following whatever moves the Federal Reserve is making.

We are in the financial bubble to end all financial bubbles, and the eventual implosion of this epic bubble is going to be spectacular.

But in the current environment, Dogecoin investors are laughing all the way to the bank, and a single deli in rural New Jersey can have a value of close to 100 million dollars.

The markets are completely broken, and the current insanity on Wall Street will not last for much longer.

On the other hand, the rampant inflation that we are witnessing is here to stay, and it is going to be a major issue in our society from this point forward.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

Food Prices Are Rising Aggressively, And Even The Corporate Media Is Admitting That It Is Only Going To Get Worse

April 13, 2021April 13, 2021 by Michael

Food prices are outrageous now, but they are only going to go higher. Earlier today, I came across an NBC News article entitled “Get ready for higher grocery bills for the rest of the year”. I thought that it was strange that a piece put out by the corporate media sounded like it could have come straight from my website, because I have been sounding the alarm about higher food prices for quite some time. Surprisingly, the NBC News article was generally right on point. Thanks to a variety of factors, food prices have been rising aggressively, and that is going to continue for the foreseeable future.

According to the Labor Department, consumer prices overall were up 0.6 percent from February to March…

Consumer prices shot higher in March, given a boost by a strong economic recovery and year-over-year comparisons to a time when the Covid-19 pandemic was about to throttle the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

The consumer price index rose 0.6% from the previous month but 2.6% from the same period a year ago. The year-over-year gain is the highest since August 2018 and was well above the 1.7% recorded in February.

0.6 percent may not sound like that much, but if you multiply that figure by 12 months you get an annualized rate of 7.2 percent.

Of course the government has changed the way the inflation rate is calculated dozens of times over the years, and at this point everyone knows that the official number greatly understates what is really happening in the economy.

In fact, John Williams of shadowstats.com says that if the rate of inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, it would be over 10 percent right now.

In other words, we have now reached Jimmy Carter levels of inflation.

One of the places where we are really starting to see inflation show up is in food prices. Here are just a few examples…

Before the pandemic began, the national average for a pound of bacon in January 2020 was $4.72. By last month, that price had soared to $5.11, according to exclusive supermarket point of sale data from NielsenIQ. Ground beef is up $5.26 a pound from $5.02. Bread is up $2.66 a loaf from $2.44.

So why are food prices increasing like this?

Yahoo News recently posted an article that listed four explanations…

1. Plummeting food production
2. Transportation tumult
3. More eating at home
4. Wild weather

Moving forward, the pandemic will continue to suppress global food production, commodity prices will likely keep climbing, and increasingly wild weather patterns will certainly cause even more damage to crops.

All of these factors are making it more expensive for food companies to operate, and as NBC News has noted, food companies are starting to pass along those costs to consumers…

Issues like higher gas prices, increasing transport costs that get passed on to consumers, especially for items like bread, are only going up as driving increases faster than oil production. So grocery prices are likely to remain on the higher end of estimates for at least the rest of the year, Olvera said. Producers may eventually increase their output in order to capture the heightened demand, but that won’t happen until toward the end of this year, Olvera said.

Of course it isn’t just the United States that is wrestling with these problems.

Food prices are actually rising far more rapidly in much of the rest of the world, and we recently learned that global food prices spiked for a tenth month in a row during March…

Global food commodity prices rose in March, marking their tenth consecutive monthly increase, with quotations for vegetable oils and dairy products leading the rise, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported today.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of commonly-traded food commodities, averaged 118.5 points in March, 2.1 percent higher than in February and reaching its highest level since June 2014.

Those at the very bottom of the economic food chain are being hurt the most by rising food prices.

We have already started to see food riots in some areas, and one relief organization is warning that millions of people in East Africa are now on the verge of starvation…

Over 7 million people across six East African countries are at the cusp of starvation as communities have faced existential threats from violence, flooding, the pandemic and locust infestation, the evangelical humanitarian organization World Vision has warned.

Needless to say, all of these developments are perfectly consistent with the warnings that I issued in Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America.

Even during the best of years, we really struggle to feed the entire planet, and 2021 is definitely not going to be a great year for global food production.

The good news is that there is still plenty of food in our supermarkets right now, and that means that we have a window of opportunity.

I know that food prices may seem ridiculous, but they aren’t ever going to be any lower than they are right now.

I would encourage you to use this window of opportunity to stock up at these relatively low prices, because the price increases are only going to become even more painful as our leaders continue to flood the system with more cash.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

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