Election

Do you think that you know who will win the election?  Well, forecasting who will win elections is what the folks over at Fivethirtyeight do for a living, and in 2016 they told us on Election Day that Hillary Clinton had a 67 percent chance of winning.  Needless to say, they were widely mocked when Trump was victorious, but that didn’t stop them.  Today, Fivethirtyeight is projecting that Joe Biden has an 87 percent chance of winning this election, and that is a number that has stayed fairly stable in recent weeks.  But of course their projections are primarily based on the same state polls that were deeply flawed in 2016, and so there is a very real possibility that they will be embarrassed once again in 2020.

The mainstream media likes to focus on the big national polls that show Joe Biden with a large lead, but the truth is that this election is going to be won or lost in just six absolutely critical swing states.  Whichever candidate can win at least four of those six swing states is almost certain to win the election, and in this article I am going to focus on polling numbers in only those six states.

Florida

In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Florida polls had Trump up by just 0.2 points, but he ended up winning the state by 1.2 points.

So Trump overperformed the polls by 1 point.

Right now, Joe Biden is leading by 1.8 points in the latest RCP average of Florida polls, but if you subtract one point from his lead that would make this a very, very tight race.

North Carolina

In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of North Carolina polls had Trump up by 1.0 points, but he ended up winning the state by 3.7 points.

So Trump overperformed the polls by 2.7 points in that case.

Today, the latest RCP average of polls shows Biden up by 1.2 points, but a swing of 2.7 points would put Trump in the lead.

Arizona

In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Arizona polls had Trump up by 4.0 points, but he ended up winning the state by just 3.5 points.

So this is one of the rare cases where Trump actually underperformed the polls.

At this moment, the latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 2.4 points, and that would seem to indicate that Trump may be in danger of losing those electoral votes.

Arizona is a special case because so many people from California are constantly migrating to the state, and that is fundamentally changing the demographics of the region.  Arizona has been drifting left for years, and that process has accelerated here in 2020.

Wisconsin

In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Wisconsin polls had Trump down by 6.5 points, but he ended up winning the state by 0.7 points.

So Trump overperformed the polls by a whopping 7.2 points in that case.

Right now, Joe Biden is leading by 5.5 points in the latest RCP average of Wisconsin polls, but a 7.2 percent shift would put this state in Trump’s column.

Michigan

In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Michigan polls had Trump losing by 3.4 points, but he ended up winning the state by 0.3 points.

So that was an instance where Trump outperformed the polls by 3.7 points.

Today, the latest RCP average of polls shows Biden up by 9.0 points in Michigan, and so even after taking 3.7 points away Biden would still seem to have a lead.

Pennsylvania

In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Pennsylvania polls had Trump losing by 1.9 points, but he ended up winning the state by 0.7 points.

So in that absolutely pivotal state Trump overperformed the polls by 2.6 points.

The latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 4.8 points in Pennsylvania, but taking 2.6 points from that difference would make it a very close race.

Of course it is always possible that either Trump or Biden could win states that they are not currently expected to win.  For example, it would not be a total shock if Biden won Iowa or Georgia, but those states are not likely to be in his column unless there is some sort of a landslide.

Likewise, Trump could pull a shocker in Minnesota or Nevada, but in either of those cases Biden would really have to underperform compared to the most recent polling numbers.

In the end, I believe that Florida and Pennsylvania are the two most critical states.  If one of the candidates is able to win both of those, it is going to be exceedingly difficult for the other guy to win.

For both campaigns, turning out people that the experts don’t expect to vote in high numbers will be so important.

In 2016, hordes of “shy Trump voters” showed up at the polls, and Trump is counting on that to happen again here in 2020.

For the Biden campaign, high turnout among young and minority voters is critical, but Democratic candidates have been disappointed by young voters many times before.

As I write this article, the numbers show that more than 64 million Americans have already voted, and it is being projected that we will see the highest level of voter participation in a presidential election since 1908.

So many Americans are fired up to vote in this election, and as I discussed yesterday, most of them believe that their candidate will end up winning.

Because so many people are voting by mail, it will take some time to get the final results, but once a winner is finally declared there will be tens of millions of Americans that will be emotionally devastated.

For many Democrats, another four years of Trump is about the worst thing that they could possibly imagine.  If Trump wins again, some have indicated that they will leave the country for good, but many more will use it as an opportunity to cause tremendous chaos in the streets.

For many Republicans, Trump is a hero figure that transcends politics.  Watching him lose would be like having their favorite teams lose the Super Bowl, the World Series, the World Cup and the NBA Finals simultaneously.  Trump is deeply, deeply loved by millions of conservatives, and a loss would be more than many of them would be able to handle.

The ironic thing is that most Americans don’t really care too much about Biden one way or the other.  In the end, this election is all about Donald Trump, and very soon we will know whether the number of Americans that love Trump is greater than the number that hate him.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael Snyder and my brand new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book, I have written four others that are available on Amazon.com including The Beginning Of The End, Get Prepared Now, and Living A Life That Really Matters. (#CommissionsEarned)  By purchasing the books you help to support the work that my wife and I are doing, and by giving it to others you help to multiply the impact that we are having on people all over the globe.  I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.  I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help.  During these very challenging times, people will need hope more than ever before, and it is our goal to share the gospel of Jesus Christ with as many people as we possibly can.

Right now we are experiencing the calm before the storm.  Many Biden supporters believe that a Trump victory would literally be the worst thing that could possibly happen to our country, but at the moment most of them are quite confident that Biden will win.  Likewise, many Trump supporters are absolutely convinced that we will plunge into a horrifying socialist abyss if Biden wins, but for now most of them are convinced that the polls are wrong and that Trump will pull out another victory in November.  So with just a little over a week until Election Day, most Americans that really care about politics are pacified because they believe that a positive outcome is right around the corner.

But soon that will change, and tens of millions of Americans will simultaneously melt down emotionally right in front of our eyes.

I think that just about everyone realizes that this national temper tantrum is coming.  It is just that most of those that deeply care about politics assume that it will happen to the other side.

At this point, even Facebook is preparing for the worst.  In fact, they are getting ready to implement “emergency measures” that are usually reserved for the most “at-risk” countries…

As the U.S. braces for election-related unrest next month, Facebook executives are implementing emergency measures reserved for “at-risk” countries in a company-wide effort to bring down the online temperature.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that the social media giant plans to limit the spread of viral content and lower the benchmark for suppressing potentially inflammatory posts using internal tools previously deployed in Sri Lanka and Myanmar.

So what would those “emergency measures” look like?  Well, that could potentially even include manipulating your news feed to alter what sort of content you are allowed to see…

Facebook has a number of options it could take including “slowing the spread of viral content and lowering the bar for suppressing potentially inflammatory posts” and “tweaking the news feed to change what types of content users see,” the Wall Street Journal reported.

Of course Facebook has already been manipulating our news feeds for a very long time, but that is a topic for another article.

Personally, I absolutely detest all of the censorship that the big social media companies have been doing, and I am not surprised that they are preparing to go even further.

According to Facebook, these new “emergency measures” will be implemented if there is “election-related violence”…

However, the social media colossus only plans to put these restrictions in place in the event of election-related violence (something many others are fearful of and preparing for). However, during a staff meeting CEO Mark Zuckerberg said “a decisive victory from someone” could “be helpful for clarity and for not having violence or civil unrest after the election” which would reduce Facebook’s need to step in.

Considering the fact that we are seeing election-related violence almost constantly now, I would say that there is a pretty good chance that Facebook will actually proceed with these emergency measures.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post is also deeply concerned about what this election may do to our nation.  In a very long article that they just published, they discussed the fact that both sides are convinced that “the wrong outcome will bring disaster”…

One week before Americans choose their path forward, the quadrennial crossroads reeks of despair. In almost every generation, politicians pose certain elections as the most important of their time. But the 2020 vote is taking place with the country in a historically dark mood — low on hope, running on spiritual empty, convinced that the wrong outcome will bring disaster.

“I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Frank Luntz, a Republican political consultant who has been convening focus groups of undecided voters for seven presidential cycles. “Even the most balanced, mainstream people are talking about this election in language that is more caffeinated and cataclysmic than anything I’ve ever heard.”

Emotions were definitely running high in 2016, but we have never seen anything quite like this.

Most Democrats believe that Trump and his supporters are deeply evil, and likewise most Republicans believe that Biden and his supporters are deeply evil.

And of course there are also many that are entirely convinced that all of them are deeply evil.

When you have a nation that is this deeply divided, how is anyone ever going to be able to bring us together in unity?

It has been said that a house divided with surely fall, and at this point our divisions have brought us to the verge of national collapse.  Here is more from the Washington Post…

But now, the worry on the right that a Democratic win would plunge the nation into catastrophic socialism and the fear on the left that a Trump victory would produce a turn toward totalitarianism have created “a perilous moment — the idea that if the other side wins, we’re in for it,” said Peter Stearns, a historian of emotions at George Mason University.

“The two sides have come to view each other not as opponents, but as deeply evil,” he said. “And that’s happening when trust in institutions has collapsed and each group is choosing not to live near each other. It seems there’s no middle ground.”

But as I pointed out at the beginning of this article, for now both sides are relatively calm because they both believe that they are going to end up winning.

In 2016, the big national polls were dead wrong and Trump pulled out a close victory when the mainstream media had assured everyone that it was inevitable that Hillary Clinton would win.

And once again this year there are indications that the big national polls may be flawed and that Trump may be doing significantly better than the mainstream media is telling us.

On the other hand, Hillary Clinton never came close to the 50 percent mark in most national polls in 2016, and Joe Biden has consistently been above that level in recent weeks.  Democratic operatives would have us believe that indicates that there are far fewer undecided voters this time around.

So I guess we will just have to wait until the real results start coming in to see who was right and who was wrong.

Because so many Americans are voting by mail, it is going to take a lot longer than usual to count all the votes, and a number of key swing states are likely to be very close.  If the results are close enough, it may take weeks before we have an official winner.

Once an official winner is finally declared, there will be tens of millions of Americans in deep emotional pain.

When all of those deeply hurting people start lashing out, you won’t want to be anywhere around.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael Snyder and my brand new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book, I have written four others that are available on Amazon.com including The Beginning Of The End, Get Prepared Now, and Living A Life That Really Matters. (#CommissionsEarned)  By purchasing the books you help to support the work that my wife and I are doing, and by giving it to others you help to multiply the impact that we are having on people all over the globe.  I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.  I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help.  During these very challenging times, people will need hope more than ever before, and it is our goal to share the gospel of Jesus Christ with as many people as we possibly can.

Can you imagine how Joe Biden’s campaign team must be feeling right now?  They have been working night and day for months to put their candidate in a position to win the election, and he has been leading in most national polls.  Over the last several days they spent many hours carefully rehearsing every potential question, and they just needed Joe to get through one last debate without making some sort of colossal game-changing mistake.

And he almost did it.

Even though Trump had hit him with quite a few jabs throughout Thursday night’s debate, Biden was on the verge of escaping without any major damage being done.

But right near the end of the debate we witnessed a moment that could change everything.

With just a few minutes to go, President Trump asked Biden if he would shut down the U.S. oil industry, and all Biden needed to do was to say “no” to that question and move on.

Instead, Biden decided to be honest for some reason, and that could potentially cost him millions of votes.

Here is the exchange that everyone is buzzing about…

Trump: “Would you close down the oil industry?”

Biden: “I would transition from the oil industry, yes.”

Trump: “That’s a big statement.”

Biden: “That is a big statement.”

For those working on the Biden campaign, that moment was essentially the equivalent of their star quarterback throwing an interception in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl.

Of course it is definitely true that the Democrats want to get rid of the U.S. oil industry, but if they want to win elections they should never actually admit that to the American people.

Despite this enormous error, Joe Biden may end up winning the election anyway.  More than 48 million Americans have already voted, and most of his supporters hate Trump so much that they simply don’t care what Joe Biden, Hunter Biden and the rest of the corrupt Biden clan have been doing over the years.  They simply want Trump out, and so they would vote for Satan if that is what it took to achieve that goal.

But for any persuadable voters that are still out there, this is a bombshell.

Needless to say, the oil industry is one of the most important sectors of the U.S. economy, and we all use petroleum products every single day.  The following comes from the official website of the U.S. Energy Information Administration…

Petroleum is the largest U.S. energy source. We use petroleum products to propel vehicles, to heat buildings, and to produce electricity. In the industrial sector, the petrochemical industry uses petroleum as a raw material (a feedstock) to make products such as plastics, polyurethane, solvents, and hundreds of other intermediate and end-user goods.

In 2019, U.S. petroleum consumption averaged about 20.54 million barrels per day (b/d), which included about 1.1 million b/d of biofuels.

And a lot of people that were watching the debate are employed by the oil industry.

In fact, today the industry employs nearly 10 million Americans…

The industry provides about 9.8 million U.S. jobs.
This equates to a sky-high 8% of the total American economy, showing how important it really is to our development. You want to provide your company with the tools it needs to support the vastness of the industry, from learning new ways to store crude oil and investing in proper-sized storage tanks.

These aren’t minimum wage jobs either.  Most oil industry jobs pay very well, and this is one of the primary factors why the middle class in the United States hasn’t completely collapsed yet.

And as President Trump noted during the debate, there are a lot of voters in key swing states that get their paychecks from the oil industry.

In particular, oil and gas continue to be of vital importance in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania…

Even today, few industries — aside from coal and steel — have had the same impact on the state as oil and gas drilling. The state was at one time the country’s leading producer in the oil and gas industry since the 1850s, creating thousands of jobs across the commonwealth and driving its economy for much of the 20th century.

In fact, the state’s Gross Domestic Product from utilities was $282.60 billion in 2019, which includes services such as natural gas and electricity generation, according to Trading Economics, an online platform that provides historical economic data as well as forecasts.

If Joe Biden does not win Pennsylvania, he is going to have a really hard time winning the election.

So why in the world would he choose to alienate so many Pennsylvania voters?

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

It was a really stupid thing for him to say, but I suppose the American people should be thankful for a rare moment of honesty.

In recent years I have had the opportunity to be around a lot of politicians, and most of them are habitual liars.

Usually Joe Biden is pretty good about keeping his lies straight, but one moment of weakness during Thursday night’s debate could change everything.

If I was the Trump campaign, I would make this the number one issue for the last 12 days.  Getting rid of the U.S. oil industry would absolutely crush the economy and would eliminate millions of good paying jobs, and those that currently hold those jobs would definitely not be keen on having them taken away.

In order to win this election, Trump needs a miracle, and he may have just gotten one.

But time is running out, and if he wants to exploit this golden opportunity he will need to do so very quickly.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael Snyder and my brand new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book, I have written four others that are available on Amazon.com including The Beginning Of The End, Get Prepared Now, and Living A Life That Really Matters. (#CommissionsEarned)  By purchasing the books you help to support the work that my wife and I are doing, and by giving it to others you help to multiply the impact that we are having on people all over the globe.  I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.  I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help.  During these very challenging times, people will need hope more than ever before, and it is our goal to share the gospel of Jesus Christ with as many people as we possibly can.

Did you know that the Republican candidate for president has lost the popular vote every single time since 1988 with just one exception?  That exception was in 2004 when George W. Bush beat John Kerry.  Other than that one time, Democrats have been winning the popular vote in election after election.  In 2016, Hillary Clinton received nearly 3 million more votes than Donald Trump, and yet Trump won the election because of how the Electoral College works.  So as we analyze this election, focusing on national polling numbers is not necessarily going to tell us who is going to win.  Instead, we need to focus on the swing states, because getting to 270 electoral votes is how you win a presidential election.

In the end, pretty much everyone agrees that the outcome of this race is going to be decided by three states in the north (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan) and three states in the south (Florida, North Carolina and Arizona).

Trump won all six of those states in 2016, and most polls show close contests in all of them this time around.

So Democrats should not put too much faith in the national polls that show Joe Biden with a sizable lead.  Most of those polls turned out to be not very accurate in 2016, most of them habitually oversample Democrats, and it is well known that many Trump voters are not really eager to talk to pollsters.

Ultimately, the truth is that this election is a lot closer than most people think, and it is easy to imagine a scenario in which Biden squeaks out a relatively small victory in the popular vote but loses the Electoral College just like Hillary Clinton did.

If you doubt this, just consider the numbers that Nate Silver has come up with.  The following are what he believes Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College are at various margins of victory in the popular vote…

• 0-1 points: just 6%!
• 1-2 points: 22%
• 2-3 points: 46%
• 3-4 points: 74%
• 4-5 points: 89%
• 5-6 points: 98%
• 6-7 points: 99%

To me, those numbers are utterly shocking.

If Biden wins the popular vote by less than one percent, Silver says that Trump has a 94 percent chance of actually winning the election.

Wow.

And even if Trump loses the popular vote by 6 million or more, the Washington Post’s Paul Waldman says that Trump could still potentially win…

The Washington Post‘s Paul Waldman added yesterday, “Turnout projections are running at around 150 million this year (137 million voted in 2016), which would mean that if Silver is right, Biden could win by 3 million to 4.5 million votes and still have less than a 50 percent chance of becoming president. If Biden won by 4 percent to 5 percent, or 6 million to 7.5 million votes, Trump would still have a one-in-ten shot of prevailing.”

Of course he is not the first to come up with this sort of a projection.

Back in August, Republican strategist Todd Blodgett also envisioned a scenario in which Trump could lose by about six million votes and still win the election…

Joe Biden could run up enormous margins in New York, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, Connecticut, Washington, D.C., and Delaware, while racking up respectable margins in Rhode Island, New Mexico, Oregon, Hawaii, Washington, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. Biden-Harris presently leads in Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire. From those states, a national popular vote margin that doubles Clinton’s could result.

And it is critical to remember that Trump does not even have to win all of the states that he won last time in order to be victorious.  In fact, according to Blodgett Trump could even lose both Michigan and Pennsylvania and still emerge victorious…

If Trump loses Wisconsin and Michigan, while holding the other electoral votes he got in 2016, he wins. Even if Trump loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, while again taking Wisconsin and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and the states he won last time, he’d still win, 270 to 268. Maine’s pro-gun 2nd Congressional district, incidentally, is among America’s whitest and heavily blue-collar.

So no, Democrats should not be confident of victory in November at all.

As I discussed yesterday, there are all sorts of numbers that indicate that this race has gotten tighter, and we just got another very alarming number for Democrats just a little while ago.

According to the latest IBD/TIPP daily presidential poll, support for Trump just hit “a new high”…

Today’s Biden vs. Trump poll finds support for President Donald Trump hitting a new high, just a hair below his 2016 vote share. The race against former Vice President Joe Biden appears to have gotten much tighter since the Oct. 12 launch of IBD/TIPP’s daily presidential poll. Republican voters have come home, while Democrats have strayed, but Biden retains an edge among independent voters, IBD/TIPP shows.

In particular, the poll shows that Biden leads Trump by only 2.5 points at this juncture…

The latest Biden vs. Trump poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 2.5 points, 48.5%-46%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 2.6%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.7%.

So why should we take that poll seriously?

Well, it turns out that the IBD/TIPP poll was one of the only accurate surveys in 2016, and they claim to have had the most accurate presidential poll for “four elections in a row”.

Considering that track record, maybe we should pay attention to what they are telling us.

And according to Nate Silver, if Biden only wins the popular vote by 2.5 points, that gives him less than a 50 percent chance of actually winning the Electoral College.

If Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College in 2020, that will make it the third time in the last six elections that the loser of the popular vote has ended up winning the presidency.

Can you imagine how devastated Democrats will be if that actually happens?

Many on the left are still dreaming of a Biden landslide, but right now I am seeing so many things that indicate that Trump now has the most momentum.

I am certainly not forecasting who will win, and this election could definitely still go either way.

These last two weeks are going to be absolutely critical, and one major mistake could end up making all the difference.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael Snyder and my brand new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book, I have written four others that are available on Amazon.com including The Beginning Of The End, Get Prepared Now, and Living A Life That Really Matters. (#CommissionsEarned)  By purchasing the books you help to support the work that my wife and I are doing, and by giving it to others you help to multiply the impact that we are having on people all over the globe.  I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.  I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help.  During these very challenging times, people will need hope more than ever before, and it is our goal to share the gospel of Jesus Christ with as many people as we possibly can.

The fact that law enforcement officials across the nation are expecting widespread violence following the election should chill every American to the core.  As I keep repeating over and over, violence is not going to solve anything, but much of the population is not listening to voices such as mine anymore.  As you will see below, authorities have decided to “plan for the worst” because everyone can see what is potentially coming.  But if we can’t hold a presidential election without violence at this point, how much longer can our system possibly last?  No matter who ends up winning, I think that the election of 2020 will tell us a lot about how far America has already fallen.

Thankfully, officials in most major cities do not have their heads stuck in the sand and have been preparing for massive riots following the election.  In New York, the NYPD is literally “training every day” to deal with the riots and protests that they are anticipating…

The NYPD is training every day and deploying hundreds of extra cops as it braces for Election Day and its aftermath, amid fears riots and protests could break out after the results are announced.

In Los Angeles, officers are being told that “they may need to reschedule” their vacations so that they will be available for whatever may happen…

LAPD sent an internal memo to its officers last week that said they may need to reschedule any vacations around election day as the agency prepares for possible protests or other unrest, according to the Los Angeles Times.

In so many instances, law enforcement agencies are pointing to the riots that erupted in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd as the type of scenario that they want to be prepared for this time around.

Even down in Texas, authorities in multiple cities are admitting that “they are planning for potential unrest around the Nov. 3 election”…

Agencies in at least four major cities — Austin, El Paso, San Antonio and Fort Worth — confirmed they are planning for potential unrest around the Nov. 3 election. Officials in other Texas cities declined to say whether they’re doing the same.

The intent of such preparations, said Tara Long, an Austin Police Department spokesperson, “is to ensure the safety of the community while protecting the rights of people to peacefully exercise their First Amendment rights.”

Of course in some cities the violent protests never seem to end.

Four years ago, chaos erupted in Portland when Donald Trump won the election, and the city has been wracked by civil unrest ever since then…

Portland Police say they are preparing for possible unrest on election night after they saw saw riots after the 2016 presidential election.

It was just the beginning of what would be four years of unrest, protests and riots. Now, the 2020 election is just three weeks away and local police is preparing for the possibility of continued unrest.

Over in Minneapolis, shell-shocked officials continue to deal with an unprecedented wave of crime and violence, and the spokesman for the police told the press that their approach for this upcoming election is to “plan for the worst”…

In Minneapolis, where the protests after George Floyd’s murder raged for weeks, similar preparations are being made. “We are aware that this may be a flashpoint and have made appropriate plans,” Minneapolis police spokesman John Elder. “Remember: Plan for the worst and hope for the best.”

I think that is a good word for all of us.

We can continue to hope that peace will prevail, but if you aren’t planning for the worst you are definitely making a big mistake.

At this point, even the Justice Department is “bracing for possible civil unrest”.  The following comes from the Washington Post…

Bracing for possible civil unrest on Election Day, the Justice Department is planning to station officials in a command center at FBI headquarters to coordinate the federal response to any disturbances or other problems with voting that may arise across the country, officials familiar with the matter said.

Though the Justice Department monitors elections every year to ensure voters can cast their ballots, officials’ concerns are more acute this year that toxic politics, combined with the potential uncertainty surrounding vote tallies, could lead to violent demonstrations or clashes between opposing factions, those familiar with the matter said.

Personally, I sincerely hope that authorities will be successful in minimizing unrest as much as possible.

Any sort of political violence should break all of our hearts, because that should never happen in this country.

Unfortunately, an increasing number of Americans are convinced that things in this nation will soon take a very chaotic turn.  In fact, one recent poll found that 61 percent of Americans believe that we are heading toward another civil war…

The poll, which included results from the “Back-to-Normal Barometer” survey, was conducted by three firms: Engagious, Sports and Leisure Research Group and ROKK Solutions.

The poll results showed that over 61 percent of survey takers believe America is nearing a second civil war, with 41 percent who “strongly agree” with that assessment.

Those numbers are truly shocking, and they are consistent with other surveys that I have seen.

Anger and hatred have been building up in our country for years, and it appears that we are about to reach a crescendo.

I will continue to speak out against rioting, looting and all forms of political violence, and many other influential voices are doing so as well.

But there are also so many voices throughout our society that are just stirring up more anger and more hatred with each passing day.

So I would encourage all of you to “plan for the worst” for the months ahead.  It looks like it is going to be a very pivotal time in our history, and the more bitterly the election results are contested the worse the chaos is likely to be.

And when a winner is finally declared, many on the losing side will inevitably feel like the election was stolen from them.

There is still time to avoid a worst case scenario, but right now it is difficult to imagine how all of this is going to end well.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael Snyder and my brand new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book, I have written four others that are available on Amazon.com including The Beginning Of The End, Get Prepared Now, and Living A Life That Really Matters. (#CommissionsEarned)  By purchasing the books you help to support the work that my wife and I are doing, and by giving it to others you help to multiply the impact that we are having on people all over the globe.  I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.  I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help.  During these very challenging times, people will need hope more than ever before, and it is our goal to share the gospel of Jesus Christ with as many people as we possibly can.

With just two weeks to go until Election Day in 2016, some national polls showed that Hillary Clinton had a double digit lead over Donald Trump, but those polls turned out to be dead wrong.  Will the national polls that show Joe Biden with a huge lead over Trump in 2020 also turn out to be dead wrong?  A few days ago, Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon made headlines all over the nation when she told supporters “we are not ahead by double digits” and that they should not believe the “inflated national public polling numbers”.  Just like so many others, Jen O’Malley Dillon fully understands that most of the big national polls simply cannot be trusted.  They are creating a perception that we are likely to see a landslide victory by Biden on Election Day, and the mood in this country is likely to shift dramatically when that perception does not become a reality.

So why are most of the major national polls deeply flawed?

Here are three big reasons…

#1 Oversampling

For some reason, most of the polling organizations that the mainstream media relies upon insist on oversampling Democrats time after time.  This is something that the Trump campaign has complained about repeatedly, and yet it just keeps happening.

During a recent appearance on Fox News, Trump’s senior campaign advisor Steve Cortes used the phrase “massive oversampling” to describe what is happening…

Speaking on Fox News’s “Bill Hemmer Reports,” Cortes said, “I think polls matter. We pay some attention to them. It’s very critical to look at the inputs into these polls because the inputs often determine the final output numbers. And many of these polls — I haven’t looked at this one yet specifically, but many of these polls have massive oversampling of Democrats.”

Let’s take a look at one very specific example of this phenomenon.  According to Zero Hedge, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that showed Biden with a huge lead represented an “egregious oversampling of Democrats”…

A new Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll released on Sunday gave former Vice President Joe Biden a 14-point lead over President Trump, suggesting that “the debate – is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing.”

Another factor having a ‘material effect’ is the poll’s egregious oversampling of Democrats – with 45% of those asked identifying as either “Strong Democrat” , “Not very strong Democrat” , “Independent/lean Democrat” – vs. the 36% of those asked identifying as the same degrees of Republican.

13% of those asked are “Strictly Independent.”

Most surveys that have been done on party affiliation show a very even split, and those numbers have not moved very much at all over the last several years.

So by including far more Democrats than Republicans in their surveys, these pollsters are going to come up with skewed results that are unreliable, and unreliable results are not helpful to anyone.

#2 Shy Trump Voters

Personally, I believe that this is an even bigger factor than oversampling.  Pretty much everyone agrees that Biden voters are far more eager to talk to pollsters than Trump voters are, and that makes it very difficult to come up with truly accurate numbers.

In fact, the head pollster for the Trafalgar Group, Robert Cahaly, says that his numbers show that Biden voters are “five times as likely to talk to a pollster” as Trump voters are…

Possibly the most startling assertion Cahaly makes is that, by a ratio of as much as five to one, Trump-favoring voters are harder to nail down. The Biden voter is five times as likely to talk to a pollster as the Trump voter. All pollsters are aware of this factor, but Cahaly thinks it has grown in just the last few weeks, when the ratio was more like four to one. Cahaly thinks other pollsters are underestimating this factor.

Just think about it.

If a pollster from CNN or the Washington Post called you, would you be eager to talk to that individual?

I sure wouldn’t.

And many Trump supporters are also hesitant to disclose who they are voting for because they are suspicious that they might be repercussions.  Every polling organization understands that “shy Trump voters” were a major factor in 2016, and it appears that those voters will once again be a major factor this time around.

#3 The Enthusiasm Gap

Another thing that everyone agrees upon is that Trump supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Biden supporters are.

If you want to have a good laugh, go on Twitter and compare the boundless enthusiasm that we are seeing at Trump rallies to the absolutely anemic enthusiasm that we are witnessing at Biden rallies.

In most elections the candidate with more enthusiastic supporters ends up winning, because enthusiasm is such an important factor in actually getting people to the polls.

So the truth is that the race is much closer than the mainstream media is leading people to believe, and with two weeks to go until Election Day the race could still go either way.

Once we get to November 3rd, one of the biggest stories will be the fact that so many Biden supporters are voting by mail this year.  In fact, one recent survey found that Trump voters are more than twice as likely to vote in person on Election Day as Biden voters are…

Trump supporters are more than twice as likely than Biden supporters to say they plan to cast their ballots in the presidential election in person on Election Day (50% vs. 20%). By contrast, far more Biden than Trump supporters say they plan to vote – or already have voted – by absentee or mail-in ballot (51% Biden supporters, compared with 25% of those who back Trump).

And another survey found that 74 percent of those that “strongly disapprove” of President Trump are likely to vote by mail…

Americans who most strongly disapprove of President Trump‘s job performance are also the likeliest to vote by mail this November, according to an Axios survey.

The survey, taken between June 8 and Sept. 21, found that 74 percent of those who said they “strongly disapprove” of how Trump has done as president said they will vote by mail rather than in person this year.

If these numbers are accurate, then we should expect President Trump to have a strong lead when the first votes are counted on the night of the election.

But Joe Biden will not concede no matter how large the lead looks, and his campaign will be counting on the mail-in ballots to put him over the top.

Needless to say, this is a recipe for disaster, and the period of uncertainty that this will create will not be good for our nation at all.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael Snyder and my brand new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book, I have written four others that are available on Amazon.com including The Beginning Of The End, Get Prepared Now, and Living A Life That Really Matters. (#CommissionsEarned)  By purchasing the books you help to support the work that my wife and I are doing, and by giving it to others you help to multiply the impact that we are having on people all over the globe.  I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.  I encourage you to follow me on social media on Facebook and Twitter, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help.  During these very challenging times, people will need hope more than ever before, and it is our goal to share the gospel of Jesus Christ with as many people as we possibly can.