The Beginning Of The End
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17 Reasons Why Those Hoping For A Recession In 2012 Just Got Their Wish

If you were hoping for a recession in 2012, then you are going to be very happy with the numbers you are about to see.  The U.S. economy is heading downhill just in time for the 2012 election.  Retail sales have fallen for three months in a row for the first time since 2008, manufacturing activity is dropping like a rock, sales of new homes are declining again, consumer confidence has moved significantly lower and a depressingly small percentage of businesses anticipate hiring more workers in the coming months.  Even though the Federal Reserve has been wildly pumping money into the financial system and even though the federal government has been injecting gigantic piles of borrowed cash into the economy, we still haven't seen an economic recovery.  In fact, we appear to be on the verge of yet another major downturn.  In California the other night, Barack Obama told supporters that "we tried our plan — and it worked", but only those that are still drinking the Obama kool-aid would believe something so preposterous.  The truth is that the U.S. economy has been steadily declining for many years and now we have reached another very painful recession.

And don't let the second quarter GDP number on Friday fool you.  Analysts are expecting to see GDP growth of about 1.4 percent for the second quarter, but the only reason for our very small amount of "economic growth" is because the economy has been flooded with new dollars.

Let me give you an example.  If I could go out overnight and magically double the bank accounts of every single American, would we all be twice as wealthy?

No, because there would be twice as many dollars now chasing the same amount of goods and services.  The price of those goods and services would soon rise dramatically to reflect this new reality.

With all of those new dollars spinning around in the economy it would look like "economic growth" was going through the roof, but in reality the amount of real economic activity would be about the same.

So whenever we talk about GDP, we need to properly adjust it for inflation.  That means using accurate inflation figures and not the highly manipulated inflation figures that the U.S. government is putting out these days.

And as I noted the other day, after properly adjusting for inflation the U.S. economy has been continually experiencing negative economic growth since about 2005.

So let's not deceive ourselves.  The U.S. economy has been declining for a long time.

But soon even the GDP number that the government gives us will turn negative.  We will probably see a slightly positive number for the second quarter, and the number will likely go negative either in the third quarter or the fourth quarter.

Economists will debate when this new recession officially "began" just like they do with every recession, but it doesn't take a genius to figure out what is happening to our economy right now.

The following are 17 reasons why those hoping for a recession in 2012 just got their wish....

1. U.S. retail sales have declined for three months in a row.  This is the first time this has happened since 2008.  Every other time this has happened in U.S. history (except for once) this has signaled that the U.S. economy was either already in a recession or was about to enter one.

2. The Philadelphia Fed index of manufacturing activity contracted for the third month in a row during July.  According to the Financial Post, this is a very bad sign....

Seven out of eight times when the average reading has been that low (-11.8) for that long the U.S. economy has tipped into recession.

3. Manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region has also declined for three months in a row.  In fact, the only time in the past decade when manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic has fallen more dramatically was during the last recession.

4. A factory index calculated by the Institute for Supply Management has fallen to its lowest level since June 2009.

5. The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators has fallen for two of the past three months.

6. According to a recent survey conducted by the Conference Board, only 17 percent of CEOs had a positive view of the economy during the second quarter of 2012.  During the first quarter of 2012, 67 percent did.

7. Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index is now the lowest that it has been since January.

8. Optimism among small business owners has declined in three of the last four months and is now at its lowest level since last October.

9. Believe it or not, the amount of waste being carted around on trains in the United States has an 82 percent correlation with U.S. economic growth.  Unfortunately, right now the number of garbage carloads on trains is falling dramatically.

10. Sales of previously occupied homes dropped by 5.4 percent during June.

11. Sales of new homes declined by 8.4 percent during June.  At this point new home sales are less than a third of what they were during the boom years.

12. An increasing number of Americans are relying on high interest "payday loans" to pay the rent and put food on the table.

13. Far more companies are defaulting on their debts this year than last year.

14. According to the U.S. Labor Department, the unemployment rate fell in 11 states and Washington, D.C. last month, but it rose in 27 states.

15. The unemployment rate in New York City is now back up to 10 percent.  That equals the peak unemployment rate in New York City during the last recession.

16. The teen unemployment rate in Washington D.C. right now is 51.7 percent.

17. A recent survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics found that only 23 percent of all U.S. companies plan to hire more workers over the next 6 months.  When the same question was asked a few months ago that number was at 39 percent.

All of those are very powerful pieces of evidence that a new recession has started.

But do you want to know one of my favorite indicators that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession?

In a previous article, I noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made the following statement to Congress recently: "At this point we don't see a double dip recession. We see continued moderate growth."

As I mentioned the other day, Bernanke has a track record of failure that is absolutely embarrassing.  Back on January 10, 2008 Bernanke made the following statement....

"The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession."

That turned out to be a great call, didn't it?

On June 10, 2008 he doubled down on his call that the U.S. economy was going to avoid a recession....

"The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so."

Just before Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collapsed Bernanke made this statement....

"The GSEs are adequately capitalized. They are in no danger of failing."

And there are dozens of other examples just like these.

This is the guy running our economic system.

I am very critical of the Federal Reserve, but there are very good reasons for this.

The Federal Reserve is running our economy into the ground, and we need to pound this into the heads of the American people so that they will wake up and demand change.

Perhaps this next recession will be painful enough to wake people up.

The Wall Street Journal is already even using the "D word" to describe what we are experiencing.  Just today, the Wall Street Journal ran an article that asked this question: "Do Two Recessions Equal One Depression?"

Sadly, this is just the leading edge of what is coming.  By the time 2014 or 2015 rolls around, we are going to look back and long for the "good old days" of 2011 and 2012.

Over the next few years, the unemployment rate is going to skyrocket and poverty in the United States is going to get a whole lot worse.

Now is not the time to goof off.  Now is the time to work really hard to get yourself and your family into the best position that you can for the storm that is coming.

Nothing is going to stop the terrible economic crisis that is coming, but at least we can get prepared for it.

There is hope in being prepared.

Sadly, most people will never even see the next crisis coming until they get blindsided by it.

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  • Traffix

    Thanks for the support everyone. We staying the course, paying off remaining debt,and investing wisely.

  • Miguel

    Well said buzzy… you remind me of a friend of mine, surname also watts.. wouldnt that be a wierd coincidence

  • Suzie

    Aloha Michael,
    I love all your informative articles and your commenters are just priceless!

    • Michael

      Suzie:

      We sure do have a collection of characters here, don’t we? :)

      Michael

  • mondo bizarro

    People were actually hoping for a recession?

  • Suzie

    Oh and good on you Traffix…no you are not alone(obviously). It’s a mad world out there..totally insane.

  • Mike

    Are we in a recession? Hell yes. I built my own company years ago and now am struggling to keep the doors open; my income is down 50% from last year. I fear a collapse is coming soon.

  • Orange Jean

    I am trying to keep things balanced in my life, and at this point I feel GOOD about my choices.

    What am I doing? A combination of paying off debt, saving, and spending “mindfully” … which is a little bit of prepping and a little bit of spending that supports my local economy. I can see why some of you make a choice to do major prepping, but for myself I have to come to grips with the fact that my health has been deteriorating a bit to the point where if TSHTF big time, no amount of prepping could help me. I have some conditions (bad arthritis & bad back and veins, now need to use a cane as I am not able to walk or stand for long without pain) that mean I could not do the heavy gardening, etc. that I did in years past… and I’d probably die laughing if I tried hunting or building myself a shack or log cabin out somewhere… or tried running away from some bad guys.

    So what do I do instead? Kind of live for today while doing what I can to try to prep for the future (even if mine ends up shorter than some folks).

    1) I am paying off debt I got into mostly from having to move 3 times in 5 yrs to keep gainfully employed and not under employed. My truck died about 6 yrs ago too and replaced it with a car. I am about 2 months away from having all debt paid (unless in the meantime I lose my job!), and it feels good.

    2) I have been saving money in the credit union, even though I know with inflation it may devalue at some point to being worthless. In the meantime, it’s a stash that would help me if I got laid off (a definite possibility, since I work for DOD, due for major cuts I think); if I find a job elsewhere I have money to move without getting back into debt or if I need it for medical emergencies (I have health insurance, but it is lousy… high co-pays and high deductibles for a number of things I may need).

    3) I use some of my money to visit friends and family who do not live near me (since I have neither nearby).

    4) I use some of my money to stock up on food and things like T-tissue, detergent, etc., especially when there are sales. I also keep a stash of good seeds (mainly heirloom and all open pollinated) both veggies and flowers (helps pollination). I already have a stash of fabric & yarn so I could keep replacing clothing if needed.

    I don’t think I’d ever have enough to buy land or a house, so I try not to think about that.

    and I also spend some money on things I don’t need but which support my local economy, mainly going out to eat a few times a week. How does that help? Despite the fact it’s more expensive than cooking all my own food… there are people out there who only can find jobs working in service industries like fast food and restaurants. If I eat out, I leave a generous tip when I get good service… and I think that really does help people keep jobs.

    and as part of my prepping by stocking up on food, I’ll buy bacon and pork from Smithfield Foods – because I live just down the road from them, and every day I drive by and see people going into work there. Yes, the people who own the place are rich… but there are also several hundred people at least every shift who have a job because the place is there and the business is making a profit. It’s not a job I’d care for, but at least the people they are working… many of them I suspect would have a hard time finding work elsewhere. (A month or so ago, they had some kind of hiring event going on and there were hundreds lined up waiting to get into their employment office).

    So I’d say, do what you can… do what feels right to you and don’t necessarily assume because you see someone spending something you wouldn’t choose to, that it’s not necessarily because they are foolish.

  • mondobeyondo

    Well, I’m not exactly WISHING for a recession in 2012… but the stars are beginning to align themselves.

  • Noe1

    A Bankers defeatism nightmare, Being forced to Return to Real Money=United States Note=Lawful Money, remove the elastic money from the system, and pay off the national debt.. The real reason you pay tribute, an income tax, is for the privilege of using a private currency. Also known As A: Federal Reserve Note, Demand from your bank or brokerage, lawful money and the tax goes away, with a tax exemption on lawful money, all of your money is yours. Use the Remedy within the Federal Reserve Act. http://savingtosuitorsclub.net/ Stop being a Slave!!!!!! This is Tax Free Money!!!!!!!! For the short version see http://www.stormthunder.com
    Republic vs CORP: http://www.USAvsUS.info
    Search: the communist takeover of america—the 45 declared goals
    Search: The united states isn’t a country—it’s a corporation by lisa guliani
    http://www.blacklistednews.com/Federal_Reserve_Banking_System_/19014/0/0/0/Y/M.html

  • we tried our plan it was a dismal failure

    Saw a page on interweb tubes that said the growth of China’s GDP was humming along at 7% while the Hopetopia’s GDP was growing at 1.5%! We need to scare more rich people off so they take their wealth to some other country. All those people who don’t pay any tax will pay for those social programs. We don’t need to make any products that people want to buy we have social networking and a cool president.

  • SMASH THE CONTROL MACHINE

    I CRY DAY AND NIGHT AVENGE US LORD OF THIS UNJUSTICE!!And he spake a parable unto them to this end, that men ought always to pray, and not to faint; 2Saying, There was in a city a judge, which feared not God, neither regarded man: 3And there was a widow in that city; and she came unto him, saying, Avenge me of mine adversary. 4And he would not for a while: but afterward he said within himself, Though I fear not God, nor regard man; 5Yet because this widow troubleth me, I will avenge her, lest by her continual coming she weary me. 6And the Lord said, Hear what the unjust judge saith. 7And shall not God avenge his own elect, which cry day and night unto him, though he bear long with them? 8I tell you that he will avenge them speedily. Nevertheless when the Son of man cometh, shall he find faith on the earth?I THINK THE EARS OF THE LORD HAVE HEARD OUR PRAYERS AND HE IS GETTING SICK OF THIS BS !!!HAVE YOU GOT FAITH???

  • Aper

    The main problem in our society is “money.” Not printing money nor spending more than we have, but the concept of “money” all together. Money was invented by man several thousand years ago, but we talk about it like it was invented by a supreme diety and is etched in stone. It’s not. It was just the best idea that man could come up with at the time to facilitate transactions. Money limits our society’s potential. There is nothing more frustrating than realizing that our society needs things but we’re not able to get them because of this limiting, old fashioned idea. It’s not “responsibility” to live within our monetary means, it’s outdatedness. When we figured out a way to move beyond money, then things will get better, if not, then I’m afraid Western Civilization is finished.

  • Washington

    HOSPITALS in the 27 Member States of the European Union. Knowledge on hospitals in Europe is sparse and spread in different sources. To make easily available the core information HOPE has developed three tools. Facts and figures provide detailed information about the situation of hospitals in each EU Member State. It considers the demographic and socio-economic condition, the healthcare systems features, hospital planning, governance and financing.

    http://www.hope.be/03activities/1_1-facts_and_figures-web_tool.html

  • Mr. G

    I already did the debt-free saver routine. Then all the idiots who were out buying 5,000 sq. ft. houses on their 20k a year incomes ruined the economy. I ended up being the guy who got screwed, since I had been doing right.

    So, I do not believe in any philosophy any more.

    I believe in taking what you can for yourself, and that’s it. It is cruel and unholy and that’s too bad because this is the nation the scum of the Earth have created, or should I say, ruined.

    There was no bail-out for me. It was bad enough when the did the banks, but then when they helped the “underwater” “homeowners,” I was sick. Most real HOME OWNERS I know, who actually owned their modest homes which they had paid off, got screwed just like me.

    Evil, evil America.

  • Mr. G

    I was not hoping for a recession.

    I figure it will get Romney elected, and then we will go from an elite-controlled but clueless, stupid president to one who is elite-controlled and a total fascist nut-job.

    It is really sad when a guy like me does not want to see Obama lose because I am afraid of the alternative!

  • Giddyup!

    You Michael are a great Drama Queen, gimme more! ****************************!!!

  • i’vegivenup

    We have been in a downward spiral since 9/11/01 imho. Nevermind the housing boom. That was a fantasy soon to become a nightmare. Bush started it all with his wars in Iraq and Afghanistan plus tax cuts. Jobs started disappearing in America and grew overseas. Outsourcing became the norm. Manufacturing has lost over 50,000 American facilities since 2001. REAL unemployment is over 20%. This is a protracted recession entering into depression status. Why is it so many people don’t understand what is really happening and that they are about to enter into the once unthinkable?

  • Cleo

    I don’t think we ever got out of the last recession. We need to account for inflation in our economic figures. Is a 1.5%increase just due to inflation? I believe it is.

  • Paul

    Have a look at this:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

    The Weimar Republic was after WWI, just as the US today is after Golf War I, II and III. And the wars in Afghanistan, Libya are still ongoing.
    The wars in Syria and against Iran just around the corner.
    (Remember all those food rations and ammo just bought by the government?)

    And there is still that promise to Taiwan, to help against China. And China filling their strategic reserves right now with cheap oil from Iran, and wheat from their own fields in Kazakhstan and Africa…

    Let China dump 1 trillion in US treasuries on the market. And next week another trillion.

  • Todd

    Regarding the box car/trash correlation. . . Another item to look at (which you brought up in an earlier article) is the Baltic Dry Index: 1) The BDI mirroring of the trash box cars and 2) if you do a year chart you can see where the BDI was going UP going into the fall months (I assume because of retail shipments and Christmas) last year, but this year is going down for the same period. Trending down pretty steep too. Todd

  • Brent Fogle

    Why so much talk about freedom being connected to the bible and to the Christian church? You all sound very silly. Weren’t the development of the Roman Catholic Church (and the Spanish Inquisition – remember that?) the most strident examples of a minority’s attempt to create “one world power” that could successfully control people’s language and culture and collect all their tax revenue? If you bother to read about the development of the bible you will see it is and always has been a tool for control. While it definitely contains some wisdom in it, it is so foolish to take it literally. I mean, really?

    • Zodiac

      I have never understood why so many people think that america was given to us by god and that we only achieved our liberty by believing in an absentee father figure. We achieved liberty through determination and courage. i believe that if we stop holding so many things above us, whether in fear, fate, or faith, that we can set ourselves truly free.

  • http://malaysiandemocracy.wordpress.com/ AgreeToDisagree

    Nonsense. USA could simply distribute all unused land , and tell the people to grow their own crops and build their own houses, raise their own livestock, make their own leather or fur goods, compost their own sewage, collect their own rainwater or dig their own wells. End of problem, everyone gets a few acres. BTW there is no such thing as money. There is no such thing as economy or collapse. Too bad for the plutocracy or corporatocracy though! Even if education was free now, citizens will return to 1400s settler-era America! Citizens please elect ONLY a President or Governor with the above intent. Executive Order 0 (Zero) for land distribution will be that reset button America needs.

    BTW there is no such thing as money or a Global Financial System or a recession.

  • Ajax

    Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition will be my mantra when the ****** hits the fan. Lead will be the new gold standard when the scumbag liberals come to take what little I have left.

  • Ajax

    The risk of the hyper inflationary holocaust looms with each passing day and rational individuals should realize that the system is broken and beyond repair. All you can do is remove yourself from it. Prepare as best you can before it’s too late. The sheeple will never come to grips with the magnitude of what awaits them.

  • Nica

    We don’t need them, they need us. We all work and abide by their rules and regulations like slaves suffering and struggling, yet if we all simply realized just this and said no, they would crumble. We’re working and fighting for money, paper, that has no value. A made up value that has been believed by so many. There is a way out. We have to realize that we don’t have to be slaves to this group of people. We are all people. We all deserve happiness and necessities. If you choose to say that’s unrealistic then you are continuing to support this unrealistic reality that they have put up around us. Wake up all.

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