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Economists: The U.S. Economy Shrank In Q1, But Better Days Are Just Around The Corner

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Smiley Face - Photo by FlyingtigersiteDuring the first three months of this year, the U.S. economy contracted at a 1 percent annual rate.  Despite this, mainstream economists flooded the mainstream media with assurances that much better days are just around the corner on Thursday.  In fact, many of them boldly predicted that U.S. GDP would grow at a 3 or 4 percent annual rate in the second quarter.  None of them seem the least bit concerned that another major recession is rapidly approaching.  Instead, they just blamed the bad number for the first quarter on a “severe winter“, and the financial markets responded to the GDP news quite cheerfully.  In fact, the S&P 500 soared to another brand new record high.  No matter how bad the numbers get, almost everyone in the financial world seems quite optimistic.  But is there actually good reason to have such optimism?

As Zero Hedge has pointed out, if it wasn’t for dramatically increased healthcare spending due to the implementation of Obamacare, U.S. GDP would have actually dropped at a 2 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2014.

That would have been an absolutely disastrous number.

But within a very short time of the revised U.S. GDP number being released, the mainstream media was inundated with positive stories about the news.

For example, CNN published a story entitled “U.S. economy shrinks, but it’s not a big deal” and CNBC released a survey of nine prominent economists that showed that their consensus forecast for the second quarter of 2014 is GDP growth at a 3.74 percent annual rate.

It just seems like almost everyone wants to forget about what happened during the first quarter and wants to look ahead to a great number for quarter two.

Joseph Lavorgna, the chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, is boldly forecasting a 4 percent growth rate for the second quarter.  So is Jim O’Sullivan.  In fact, it is hard to find any “expert” in the mainstream media that does not expect rip-roaring economic growth this quarter.

For example, just check out these quotes…

Stuart Hoffman, the chief economist for PNC Bank: “The first quarter was disappointing, but rather than view that as an omen of a recession or the first of a down leg in the economy, I see the seeds of a big bounce back in spring.”

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics: “For those worried about a recession, it’s worth remembering that employment increased by nearly 300,000 in April.”

The Bank of Tokyo’s Chris Rupkey: “2Q growth seen at nearly 4%… Weak 1Q is stone cold dead as an indicator of where the economy is headed.”

Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs: “Because of weaker inventory investment in Q1, we increased our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by two-tenths to 3.9%.”

Dun & Bradstreet Credibility Corp. CEO Jeffrey Stibel: “Using an alternative model for projecting job growth, we see an entirely different scenario, one in which the U.S. unemployment rate will fall below 5 percent by no later than the middle of next year.”

Hopefully they are right.

Hopefully we are not heading into another recession.

But as I discussed in an article earlier this week, evidence continues to mount that another recession has already begun for much of the country.

And there was another number that was released today that seems to confirm this.  According to CNBC, there was a 6 percent drop in exports in the first quarter of 2014 when compared to the first quarter of 2013…

The U.S. economic reversal was led by a 6 percent drop in exports year over year, until recently hailed as a key driver of the U.S. recovery, and which had risen 9.5 percent in the last three months of 2013.

The slackening of trade has spread to the developing world, where emerging economies are seeing less demand from the U.S., Europe and China for raw materials and other exports.

We saw a similar decline happen in mid-2008 as the U.S. economy plunged into recession.

And Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort index has fallen to the lowest level that we have seen in six months.  U.S. consumers are increasingly tapped out, and the ongoing “retail apocalypse” is evidence of that fact.

A declining middle class simply cannot support the massive retail infrastructure that America has developed.  As the middle class has fallen to pieces, it was just a matter of time before big trouble started erupting for the retail industry.  This is something that David Stockman recently wrote about…

It does not take much analysis to see that these bell ringers do not represent sustainable prosperity unfolding across the land. For example, around 1990 real median income was $56k per household and now, 25 years later, its just $51k—-meaning that main street living standards have plunged by about 9% during the last quarter century. But what has not dropped is the opportunity for Americans to drop shopping: square footage per capita during the same period more than doubled, rising from 19 square feet per capita at the earlier date to 47 at present.

This complete contradiction—declining real living standards and soaring investment in retail space—did not occur due to some embedded irrational impulse in America to speculate in real estate, or because capitalism has an inherent tendency to go off the deep-end. The fact that in equally “prosperous” Germany today there is only 12 square feet of retail space per capita is an obvious tip-off, and this is not a teutonic aberration. America’s prize-winning number of 47 square feet of retail space per capita is 3-8X higher than anywhere else in the developed world!

Without middle class jobs, you can’t have a middle class.  That is why our employment crisis is at the very heart of our economic problems.  Even using the government’s highly manipulated unemployment figures, there are still quite a few cities out there that have official unemployment rates in the double digits

The unemployment rate in Yuma, Ariz., is 23.8%. In El Centro, Calif., it is 21.6%. El Centro sits in an area of California in which unemployment in many metro areas is double the national average. In Merced the figure is 14.3%, in Yuba City the figure is 14.5%, in Hanford it is 13.1% and in Visalia it is 13.4%. In several metros close to these, the figure is above 10%. Most of them are inland from San Francisco and the area just south of it, which also happens to be among the nation’s most drought-plagued regions. This means jobs recovery is highly unlikely.

But of course the truth is that if the government actually used honest numbers, the unemployment rate for the entire nation would be in double digits.

And as I like to remind people, according to the government’s own numbers approximately 20 percent of the families in the entire nation do not have a single member that is employed.

So how is it possible that the “unemployment rate” is just a little above 6 percent?

It is a giant sham.

But that is what they want.

They want us feeling good and thinking that everything is going to be okay.

Unfortunately, they used the same approach back in 2007 and 2008, and we all remember how that turned out.

  • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

    I hope that everyone knows how much I value the discussions that take place on this site. You guys are awesome, and I love to hear what you think.

    I know that sometimes it is frustrating for people because this website is only updated about five times a week usually. That makes it very difficult to keep up with the pace with which things are actually happening. At times I haven’t posted an article for a day or two, but people want to talk about something that just happened an hour or two ago.

    In an effort to provide the very best news and information on a more rapid basis, I have launched (or rather re-launched) a new flagship website. It is a domain that I have not done much with for several years, but I think that now is the time to dust it off. I have updated it with a sleek, modern design and with some cutting edge features.

    The website is called The Most Important News and I just started posting on it today. My goal is to update it with dozens of stories on a regular basis and to transform it into one of the best destinations for alternative news on the Internet.

    I hope that everyone will check it out. You can find The Most Important News right here…

    http://themostimportantnews.com/

    If you have any comments or questions about the new site, please feel free to contact me.

    Michael

    • Guest

      Please don’t overdo it, Michael. We don’t want you leaving us prematurely. :-)

      • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

        I certainly don’t want that either :)

        Michael

        • danbax

          why not just make a forum?

          • StefanaRapsondeu

            like
            Jacqueline implied I’m taken by surprise that a mom can earn $8130 in 1 month
            on the computer . see post F­i­s­c­a­l­p­o­s­t­.­C­O­M­

    • Rodster

      Are these original or linked stories?

      • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

        On the Most Important News, there will be some original stories (especially as I recruit writers), but mostly it will be linked stories.

        Think of it as kind of like “Drudge Report” with an alternative news twist.

        Michael

        • Rodster

          Will Gary2 be a contributor?

          • Rodster

            :)

          • DB200

            I hope so. When I everybody thinks the same, and the debate ends, then it becomes really scary.

          • Keywee

            I couldn’t agree more. We don’t have to like everyone or agree with their beliefs etc., but we must acknowledge that everyone has the right to an opinion. Imagine a world where everyone was the same (shudder) how boring.

          • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

            I hope that Gary2 and everyone else will comment on the news stories on this new site.

            Michael

    • Mondobeyondo

      Just don’t spread yourself too thin.

      A few people have asked me about putting up a blog of my own. I won’t do it, at least for now. It takes a tremendous amount of motivation and effort to do that, and I admire you for the that. Right now, my primary efforts are focused on other matters… *sigh*

      • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

        I do spend a tremendous amount of time in front of the computer. But I am also blessed to be able to touch so many people around the globe.

        Michael

      • chilller

        It would be nice to have links to your other sites posted on all your sites.

    • Syrin

      Michael, I know you have three or four other sites that I stumble upon occasionally. Could you put links to those other sites somewhere at the top here? I would like to visit them more frequently. I see Rod there fairly regularly as well.

      Thanks for all the info.

      • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

        Syrin:

        I will be linking to the work that I do on various sites on the Most Important News, so it can almost be kind of a “one stop shop” for you. :)

        Michael

        • Syrin

          Excellent. Thanks

    • Sophie Chang

      Nice to know you!

    • Kim

      Yay!!!

    • RedPillPlease

      Brilliant! You’ve just enabled another browser tab for me to load. I sincerely appreciate your efforts!

    • jox

      I really appreciate your work in this blog. My 2 cents: we already have a lot of news and sources of information, so your new web page is not going to be useful to me. What we lack is an in-depth analysis the kind you do here, this is what gets me coming every day.

    • DB200

      Michael,
      I’m pretty old fashioned and prefer old news, because then it is easier to discern what is important news and what is not.

      Wouldn’t it be far more interesting to re-read some of your articles from, say, 2011?

      Good article you wrote this time, by the way. Sometimes I question, from what point did things go into the wrong direction? At least from the mid-90s I would say.

      The one percent decline is understated, as the real inflation number is higher than published. 3-4 percent contraction would be closer to the truth.

    • peace angel

      WHAT A GREAT SITE. I LOVE IT AND IT IS CLEAR YOU HAVE DONE A TON OF WORK ON IT.

      • MichaelfromTheEconomicCollapse

        Thanks peace angel :)

        Michael

    • none

      Good news Michael:
      there are a lot of websites that already do this!
      On u-tube: The X22 report. The Alex jones channel. The Glen Beck??? Plus others. All have a staff, that gather news stories for the star of the site.
      .
      The one that gets me the best is RT Moscow’s channel. It has multiple offices, in London, New York the middle east. With lots and lots of writers.
      The worst part? All they do is report the truth. Something that seems to be lacking in U.S. news.
      ..
      Lastly, you do have a unique stand out feature. Well researched articles. They seem to be re-written by the editorial pages of the local newspaper

    • GSOB

      Take your weekends ‘off’ site.

  • aghast

    Gay Veteran’s PTSD Song:

    They’re coming to take me away, ha-haaa.
    They’re coming to take me away, ho-ho, hee-hee, ha-haaa.
    To
    the funny farm, where life is beautiful all the time and I’ll be happy
    to see those nice young men in their clean white coats and they’re
    coming to take me away, ha-haaa!!!
    To the happy home, with trees and
    flowers and chirping birds and basket weavers who sit and smile and
    twiddle their thumbs and toes and they’re coming to take me away,
    ha-haa!!!To the funny farm, where life is beautiful all the time.

    • Mondobeyondo

      Love that song!!
      (Napoleon XiV, 1966. Banned in several countries for its content)

      • aghast

        Gay Vet Snagglepuss Troll should be banned from Michael’s blogs. Notice he conflicts with everyone?

        • Malcolm Reynolds

          LMAO! Love the song.
          True, he’s a troll and he and I conflict OFTEN, but I, for one, prefer it that way. You cant honestly tell me that you read those long conflicts and you don’t come away (at least sometimes) with a point you hadn’t considered or a better understanding of just how serious the cognitive dissonance is with those clowns.
          Let the left be the fascists.

          • heil hitler

            Good point.
            Heil to the fuhrer!

    • Keywee

      Please stop clogging up the comments section with your irrelevant, off-topic personal attacks. I visit this site frequently and usually enjoy reading the comments, there are people from many walks of life and generally they can discuss issues like adults.

      • aghast

        He is a troll.

        • aghast

          “When a wise man has a controversy with a foolish man, The foolish man either rages or laughs, and there is no rest.”

          • aghast

            I’m not the wise man, but some of you are, and you will all get your turn arguing with this troll.

          • Mike Smithy

            You are right. The foolish man will never engage with a logical argument supported by facts and critical thinking skills.

          • aghast

            Well said. But in this case it’s worse. We have an absolute troll on our hands, who calls others trolls. I know not all will appreciate it, but I’ve gone after him to leave you guys free to blog. He’s only here to argue, not learn, grow or exchange good ideas. He is here for the sole purpose of disrupting. Even his name is meant to provoke. But it’s really not about him being gay. That’s a sideshow. (Most folks don’t really care). It’s really about snide, inflammatory remarks, causing commotion and getting everyone off track. Notice – my quarrel is with him alone. His quarrel is with everyone.

          • Gay Veteran

            and yet in an article about the economy you post “Gay Veteran’s PTSD Song”

            YOU are the troll here, nothing intelligent to contribute

          • aghast

            All your posts are easily traceable. And they are FULL of incendiary remarks to dozens of people. Who do you think you’re fooling?

          • Gay Veteran

            lying p.o.s.

          • aghast

            So the Liar calls everyone else liars. Typical.

          • Gay Veteran

            lying p.o.s.

          • aghast

            One of the most insidious evils is to do something wicked, then charge others with doing the very same.
            A very low, dirty game.

          • Gay Veteran

            still lying p.o.s.

          • aghast

            Earth to Gay Vet.
            Come out of Uranus.

          • Gay Veteran

            lying p.o.s.

        • Keywee

          And you are not? Usually I ignore trolls and just focus on engaging with people who have positive contributions to make. The situation we are in worldwide is desperate and we need to realize that we are all in this boat together. Infighting amongst those who are awakened is exactly what TBTB want, it takes focus away from the real issues..

          • aghast

            No, I’m not a troll. If you read thru the blogs, you will see that what I’m saying is true. I have gone after one troll (GV) because he is really bad and
            treats everyone with extreme disdain. It’s not about the gay thing, if
            you happen to be.. you have no need to defend him.

            ” Usually I ignore trolls and just focus on engaging with people who have positive contributions to make.”

            I totally agree with you. But this is EXACTLY what GV
            has been against all along. I guess I just got tired of it.
            Sorry about that.

            I’ve
            pretty much wrapped things up with him. I’d like to say “truce”, but
            he’s not capable of it. If you don’t believe what I’m saying, try having a
            rational conversation with him sometime.

          • Keywee

            Like I said, I visit this site frequently, have been for a few years now. I have read through most of the comments on most of the articles and yes, I agree with you that “GV” has said some unnecessary things. However I have also noticed many posts from “GV” that make a lot of sense and are actually based on fact. Often, when you have a beef with a person it is impossible to look past the things you don’t like about them and you overlook the things you have in common. This is how divide and conquer works. There are plenty of people on here whose opinions I don’t like, some I find downright repulsive, but I have found that most who comment on this site share a common goal, freedom from the elitists (red and blue) who run the world. That is what we must always keep in mind, otherwise they have won. Peace. (ps-no, not gay, never even considered that was why people would attack GV, guess I just dont think in that way)

          • aghast

            Again, I agree with what you say. In fact I like your posts. GV does on occasion say something interesting. I like getting the perspective from a veteran. Yet, all the vitriol and rude condescension on others is uncalled for. Just a quick perusal of his posts (when you click on his name), reveals a long, long list of truly horrific things. I shouldn’t have been dragged down to the same level with him. He lives there and he likes it. I’ll let ya’all fight with him. I’m done. Again, sorry for the mess.
            Peace.

          • Keywee

            :) . I’d love to hear your thoughts on the actual article. Enough about dramas.

          • aghast

            Well, I think we’d all love to be optimistic if we had something solid to go on. it’s hard to get excited about an economy when the real truth is all around you – shuttered storefronts all around, homeless and other folks working the trash for recycles in nice neighborhoods, layer after layer of layoffs, downsizes, retailers that are household names diving into chapter 11, closing not just a few stores, or even dozens, but HUNDREDS of stores, or disappearing altogether.

            I’d like to think this was all just a correction. We’ve had plenty of them. But a colossal speculative bubble ready to come down like a landslide? I never heard anyone call a landslide “a correction.”

            A part of me is real excited about what’s to come. It’s gonna be truly amazing. Mindblowing. And a lot of people are gonna panic. It’s gonna be a socio-economic nightmare. But I also dearly wish I was wrong.

          • GSOB

            Tested and tried faith through endurance in believing in Christ and His Kingdom is the only real hope to be utterly optimistic about.

          • Keywee

            Sorry I took so long to reply, it’s been a holiday weekend in Keyweeland (Queen’s Birthday, yay for the monarchy, not) and I’ve been away from the computer. Part of me is real excited too, about the possibility to build a new world after the collapse. It hurts my heart to think of all the innocents who will suffer though. But if you consider that many are already suffering, a quick “landslide” collapse would be better because it might wake more people up. Kind of like ripping off the band-aid.

      • anon

        I like Gay Veteran’s PTSD Song. It’s funny and makes me smile, especially when put to the right tune. :))

    • Hammerstrike

      He is probably eager to meet the Health Inspector.

  • heil hitler

    Pass around the Zoloft.
    Medicate the masses.
    Much as Huxley predicted,
    A soma society is coming..

    • Malcolm Reynolds

      ?? What’s with the name? Font of tiny moustaches are you?

      • heil hitler

        It’s a mock salute to fascism in all its forms. Especially the kind in our country that cries out against “hate speech” and ardently pursues an agenda of silencing all who disagree. Of course they can hate to their hearts content and get “hate crime” legislation passed simply because they others disagree. Heil Hitler!

        • Gay Veteran

          try protesting effectively against TPTB, “hate crime” will seem minor in comparison

  • Rodster

    All the US Govt BLS needs to do is follow the lead of Italy. Just include prostitution, drug trafficking, car jacking and they’ll easily get their 3-4% growth.

    • Mike Smithy

      I just read that the UK is following Italy’s lead on calculating GDP. It is just a matter of time before this contagion spreads to the USA. The name of the game is “Extend & Pretend”. Expect more of the same type of shenanigans until such time the the western banksters can kick off WW3. In the interim, use the time to keep prepping.

    • none

      Every 3-4% increase. Will also decrease the amount of teenage unemployment, by 3-4% !

    • kfilly

      Some of those are public sector operations. The CIA is great at gun and drug trafficing.

  • Mondobeyondo

    And how exactly do these people expect the GDP to actually INCREASE? The middle class is being decimated, many retailers are feeling the pinch…and yet, Wall Street is booming. It doesn’t make (much) sense.

    Yep, this is becoming Alice in Horrorland. Complete with a Cheshire Cat (Obama) who can’t help but grin at every photo op.

    • Shay’s Rebellion

      Do you remember the government fudging the payroll numbers just before the presidential election? I think there will be a lot of pressure in Washington DC to show positive GDP in the 2nd quarter, since two consecutive quarters of negative growth is the technical definition of a recession.

    • Hammerstrike

      It very much does makes sense, actually.
      Just ask yourself, from whom is all that Wall Street´s money coming from? Who is paying for the big party?

  • kfilly

    Just think if we wouldn’t have any inflation the GDP numbers would look worse. At least, we got inflation working for us. Go Amerika!

  • Syrin

    Why does anyone listen to these guys when they have been consistently wrong for over a decade?

    • Mondobeyondo

      Because people still believe them.

    • Keywee

      Because people like the idea of getting rich quickly off the stocks. Greed makes people irrational.

  • Kristen Marie Embler

    I doubt this is all mostly due to “severe weather” as they put it.

    • Mondobeyondo

      It is not. Not at all.

  • Mondobeyondo

    Off topic for just a moment:

    President Obama recently declared during a West Point graduation speech:

    “Our military has no peer. The odds of a direct threat against us by any nation are low…. Meanwhile, our economy remains the most dynamic on earth…”

    Oh dear. He doesn’t have a clue. Neither do most of us.

    Goliath had quite an army. He was a giant. David knocked him down with one stone.

    • jakartaman

      todays stone is an EMP

      • heil hitler

        Unfortunately there’s a lot of truth to what you just said. Hail to the Ayatoilet Hitler. Heil Hitler!

    • heil hitler

      “Our military has no peer. The odds of a direct threat against us by any
      nation are low…. Meanwhile, our economy remains the most dynamic on
      earth…”

      If you speak a lie often enough, people will eventually believe it. “Black is white.. white is black..” Heil Hitler!

  • Mondobeyondo

    “We’re the best! We are number one!”

    Be careful, very, very careful.

    Rome was once number one.

    Greece was once number one.

    A certain German dictator dreamed of being number one.

    They all fell.

    • heil hitler

      Hail to the fuhrer.

    • Keywee

      Pride comes before a fall. I can’t wait until the meek inherit the earth.

      • Hammerstrike

        The meek are the ones voting for this.

        • Keywee

          That’s an interesting thought, but I actually believe the truly meek wouldn’t vote. Voting is an attempt to force your will and beliefs on the rest of the population. I believe the truly meek are those who simply want to get on with their own lives.

  • El mico

    What gets me, is these people of economic influence etc, must at least have half a brain. They must be able to see past all the bs to what is really wrong. You can’t tell me they actually believe what they’re saying. So are they are hiding something, or are they told to say positive things about the economy so the sheeple don’t panic?

    • Mondobeyondo

      These people are not stupid. They graduated from Harvard, Yale, Brown, etc. Knowing that 49 is a prime number (7×7) may be enough to get you into UCLA. But you’d need more to get into Harvard, etc.

      • Mike Smithy

        Assuming what you say is true, how did Obama get into Harvard? From what I heard he earned less than stellar grades in high school.

        • jaxon64

          In answer to your rhetorical question, –From the old tootsie pop commercial…” The world will never know”
          PS: 49 is the perfect square of the number 7…a prime number is a number that is only divisible by itself and the number 1 to produce a whole number ( 47, 43, 41, 37, 31, 29… for example)

      • Keywee

        No, they are not stupid, they know exactly what they are doing. That is what sickens me, they are willingly cr***ing all over their fellow humans.

    • JailBanksters

      Bernanke: It was Ok when I was captain, it must be something Yellen did.

      Like all Psychopaths and Hillary, they can never see what THEY are doing is right or wrong, only what somebody else is doing wrong.

    • Mike Smithy

      Their religion is based upon lies and deception. They pray at the church of Keynesianism and their false prophet is John Maynard Keynes.

  • JailBanksters

    It’s not another recession, it’s the same one.
    To qualify for another recession, the previous recession must of ended along with the free money for their Bank Buddy’s. It has never stopped, and now they will have to start jamming that print button that hard, I wonder if Obamacare will cover it.

    • Cynical Guy 42

      That does seem to be the case. We are so screwed.

    • Mondobeyondo

      The Great Recession never ended.
      It is ongoing.

      The reason why it is not (supposedly!!) so bad now, is because the government has been manipulating the numbers.Do you honestly think this is something new?

      Exhbit A: The Veterans Administration scandal.

      • JailBanksters

        All the US is doing right now is going from one scandal to the next scandal.
        If this was happening in any other country, their would be a public lynching by now.
        Nobody’s in Jail, Nobody’s lost their Job, the worst thing that will happen is endless commissions / enquiries until everybody is sick of hearing about it, then it just disappears.

      • laura m.

        America is really crapped out from Bengazi, Obozo care, unemployment, VA scandal, on and on. I’m amazed patriot websites don’t shut down over frustration that the country is trashed and the masses are stuck in stupid and only small numbers know what is going on. Several people dumped all their patriot books, etc from decades back along with dvd’s into the trash or recycle bin. I did also several years ago..they will be utterly useless to anyone as America declines into darkness. All patriots work over time has been in vain; no results ever seen in last 60 years. The UN has more control now than ever before world wide.

        • Mike Smithy

          Keep the faith and never surrender. Use this time to keep prepping for you and your family.

  • VegasBob

    About 15 of 15,000 economists worldwide predicted the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. That’s 1 in 1,000 who got it right.

    As such, we can confidently assume that the predictive ability of the average economist is no higher (and probably lower) than that of a witch doctor, voodoo priest, or chimpanzee with an ouija board.

    Therefore, why would any sane person believe the nonsensical drivel that spews forth from the mouth of the average economist???

    • Keywee

      I think that while 15 out of 15,000 predicted it publicly, most of the others knew but wanted to keep their jobs and their own advantage in the financial game. I was told about the housing bubble 2 years before it happened by an “economist”. He never announced it publicly, it would be against his own and his master’s best interests. I believe that those 15 who predicted it publicly were the only economists with integrity. The others have sold their souls.

      • K2

        This.

        I posted my comment without seeing this one :)

        • Keywee

          :) You know what they say about great minds….

    • K2

      The problem with economists is , most of them even if they know, they dont tell.

      • FirstGarden

        Truth be told, a lot of them are probably peeing in their pants.

        • K2

          I am not surprised..

  • Mondobeyondo

    Some of us are plagued by fleas,
    Others of us by bees.
    In the end, we’re all bugged.
    _____________________________
    Yes that’s original. Please don’t steal it.
    (c) Mondobeyondo 2014

    • heil hitler

      When is your book coming out and where can I get a copy? :-)

  • DJohn1

    George Soros is betting that the U.S. Stocks are going to crash. He has placed his money where his mouth is.
    He has invested outside the U.S.
    This is the same man that made over 1 billion dollars when the British Pound went over the edge.
    He is not saying a lot of good things right now about the U.S. Economy. When push comes to shove, I believe him over all the economic “experts” the government has.
    Humpty Dumpty had a great fall, and all the King’s Horse’s A**** and all the King’s men, could not put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
    That old poem keeps haunting us because it is as true now as it was then. I have only altered one word.
    In this case, the fall of the stock market could go all the way back to 2008 prices.
    The pieces that fall effect all of us. Especially vulnerable are all the pensions invested in the market out there.
    One day, we will get a note in the mail. Your pension has gone bankrupt. We will no longer be able to send you a check each month. The bankruptcy court will be getting in touch to divide what funds are left . . .
    This is happening every day. It is the permanent new situation that every one of us should fear. It is the ruin of many a family in old age. It has already happened many times. Walmart Greeters and associates know this very well.
    These people will not tell the truth for anything. To tell the truth will kill the messenger. So Happy Days are Here Again!
    Well, maybe for those lucky enough to be on the government benefits and wages. Like the Congressional Pension plan.
    Why don’t they do something to resolve it? I think they don’t know how to fix it.
    Just for the record, I came into an inheritance in 2007. The local credit union wanted me to invest the money in the market. I told them 4 weeks before the crash that the entire market would drop to around 6,000. It was at 12,000 at the time. I know nothing about the market. I do know people and I do know when people are having a bad time of it. In my ignorance, I knew better than all those so called economists. Something is very wrong when a civilian with little knowledge of markets can see a crash coming.

    • Hammerstrike

      Oh, they know, they are just not telling you.

      For example, if you are a company leader who does not actually know the real rate inflation, you are likely going to face troubles. Reality can be ignored and denied but not the consequences of it.

      howitends.c o. uk / the-collapse-of-the-west. p hp

  • RealityCheck

    But wait, there’s more. Did you know that these past numbers can be revised at a later date?

    • Keywee

      Of course, Winston Smith at the Ministry of Truth will just rewrite history.

      • RealityCheck

        I have a gut feeling that 5 years down the road, we will refer to these times as the “good old days.”

        • heil hitler

          Or the not-so-good old days.
          But nothing like the horror flick coming soon to a theater near you. :-)

          • Keywee

            How about “the so-so days”?

  • chilller

    All of these so called “financial experts” espousing their cheery future outlook…aren’t these the same jokers employed by the TBTF banking industry? Of course they are going to be cheery about the future. Imagine what would have happened if they told us 5 years ago that we will be worse off than we were then. The sheep would stampede, as it doesn’t take much to set them off into a full blown panic.
    Gubermint has the best shrinks working for them on how to prevent sheep from becoming agitated and threatening to run their handlers out of the pen. Most here have already escaped the pen and know the score, thanks to Michael!

    Looking forward to your new site Michael!

  • Jimbo

    As the economic system is purely faith based, it relies on continued reinforcement to keep it going. If the Fed, Government and MSM came out and said “things are looking shaky” the whole thing would collapse in seconds. That is why they never say it. They know the reality, but if they say it, they act as a catalyst and will get the blame. Better to let it collapse and then blame some outside influence. Then they can save us all over again.

    • Mike Smithy

      Well stated. Undoubtedly, TPTB are very worried and you can rest assured that they are conspiring to come up with a false flag event to deflect culpability of the looming crash.

    • Hammerstrike

      How much have living standards really declined?

      If inflation is closer to 8%, it has really been something a 40% drop since Captain O came to power.

  • Outdoorsman46

    If by some maracle they can print enough money to keep this sinking ship afloat a little longer, 4 dollar a gallon gas should be the bullit behind the ear that finishes us off. A local talk show here in NE Ohio said yesterday that gas is only 45 cents a gallon in Saudi Arabia and a 25 cents a gallon in Venezeula.

    • FirstGarden

      Maybe their governments don’t allow their corporations to be rapists like ours does.

      • Keywee

        How long will they get away with blocking the corporations? If they start to become too independent I imagine the UN and NATO will find some excuse to invade them and “liberate” their citizens.

  • K

    The economic news is just propaganda. Governments have always tried to mislead the public. Until now we have an administration, that avoids the truth at all costs.

  • jakartaman

    If anyone still believes the lying administration and their lapdog MSM then they deserve what they will get.

  • XSANDIEGOCA

    Janet, darling, there won’t be any tapering now? That’s a good girl….

    • K2

      Huge decisions like that are not taken by the fed chairman alone. Ben or janet. They will have an army of advisors.

  • K2

    Michael,

    The answers to the questions you raised are present in the first paragraph of the article itself.

  • K2

    I just clicked on your site, and its very nice. If i may..i have small tip about the aesthetics.

    The colour of the menu bar on the top, and the ‘follow’ bar on the left are blue, while the one on the right ‘more’ is green. This doesnt seem symmetrical (if you know what i mean). Why dont you make the menu bar red in colour. And both the side bars the same colour (either both blue or both green). And make them extend to the corners of the screen without the empty space in between them and the sides of the screen.

    • K2

      I said red, because it will look good side by side with the black. Or orange if you are not keen on red. Basically any colour that is far from blue and green.

    • Malcolm Reynolds

      *cough* if you need a web developer Michael… :)

      • K2

        I am not a web developer :)

        I was just saying…

        • Malcolm Reynolds

          I know. I was using your suggestion to Mike to give a cheap plug for myself.

  • K2

    And can you please publish both sides of the argument about global warming. Only then will we get the true picture.

  • Bubba_Schwartz

    Employment is a LAGGING indicator…..

  • Dave

    It does’nt matter what propaganda the msm is upchucking for their corporate masters, the fact is that the consumer is still under considerable pressure and their spending power has been severely diminished. Rents increasing, medical care costs increasing. price inflation on the rise, wage stagnation. These are all ingredients for an economy that is once again going deeper into the the tank and most of us know it. I tell you this, if Joe Lavorgna is calling for a 4% rise in growth for Q2 consider it a guarantee that it’s not going to happen.

  • Stephanie S

    Re Southern Calif and retail sales, my friends in LA were telling me all winter how nice the weather was there (I was freezing elsewhere). So if there was a West Coast slump as well it wasn’t the weather. Also take a look at a thingie they are calling The Village in Woodland Hills CA a huge shopping center/outdoor mall they are building with great pride anchored by a mega-Costco. They think the West Valley-Calabasas crowd will trundle over there to shop, yeah sure. They are doing it online and will go there for a coffee and to stroll around and be seen.

  • RedPillPlease

    And here lies the problem … “In fact, it is hard to find any “expert” in the mainstream media that does not expect rip-roaring economic growth this quarter.

    When you have lap dogs working for the Administration, who are willing to sell their souls to prop up an illusion (conspiracy), perpetual deceit is always the first order of business.

    • Mike Smithy

      That goes to show you just how desperate they actually are pursuant to their attempt to get the sheeple to buy into the false narrative.

      • RedPillPlease

        No doubt … just another déjá vu in comparison to their complicity surrounding the “official” story of 911.

  • Harvey

    Better days around the corner??? Yea, where have we heard that old song and dance before…

  • Trailer Park Investor

    “Happy Days are Here Again”.
    Lets all sing along in three part harmony.
    (It didn’t do them any good, it wont do us any good either)
    America is going down into a cesspool of criminal activity. And IF you are connected you can do ANYTHING you want. Ship guns off to the Mexican Cartel, give arms to Al-Qaida, steal all the cash you want, put your enemy’s on the IRS hit list to be audited for the last 20 years. But IF you are NOT connected “ITs the FEMA Camps for you and yours”. Something is wrong with this picture. Now I understand why so many states are asking to succeed from the Union.

  • aghast

    If you’re unemployed, Gay Vet can tell you how to get a trolling job.

    • Mike Smithy

      Yes. Media Matters will hire anybody that is willing to drink and pass along the Kool-Aid.

    • sdfjLIBSSUCK3ru2

      he already has a job as a dildo salesman

  • Daddyotis

    Er, yeah. I suppose I was part of the retail frenzy for the last few quarters…but only to spend on my preps for the coming collapse.

  • Sandbagger

    When the going gets tough, the tough won’t be going shopping.

  • sharonsj

    Parts of America are in a depression, not a recession. And spending is way down because the costs of basic necessities are way up. A let of people can’t afford the electric bill, the water and sewer bill, heating–you name it. Plus, the Fed is making our dollar worthless.

    • sdfjLIBSSUCK3ru2

      the steel belt is rusting away

      • djc

        Yes, it truly is. We’ve been waiting for the economy to improve in NE Ohio for almost 40 years. What has been allowed to happen in the industrial midwest is a crime against humanity.

    • Hammerstrike

      Blame Bush.

      Everything going wrong is Bush and the Koch brothers fault.

  • El Pollo de Oro

    Steve Cordasco, who hosts a financial talk show here in Philly, has called this financial crisis a “managed depression.” I agree. But this depression is going to become very UN-manageable when one or more of the too-big-to-fail banks runs into a brick wall again and is too big to bail out. That’s when the real “fun” begins.

    How could it not? Banksters of America, Hells Fargo, etc. are a lot more leveraged than they were in 2008. Bailout Barack and his cronies encouraged them to become even more reckless. So it stands to reason that their next case of cardiac arrest will be even more acute.

    “Mommy, why is that mean man in a ski mask shooting our bodyguard, pointing a gun at us and stealing our car?”

    “Because, dear, when people lose everything and have nothing left to lose, they lose it.”

    • heil hitler

      Thanks for such a colorful post. Funny.

  • Jimbo

    Most of what I read in the MSM can be picked apart by a five year old.
    The London Daily Mail has been shouting recovery for a year. They cite falling unemployment and rising wages as proof of this. Funny then how in April this year, the income tax take dropped 6.8% from the same reporting period last year. This fact was also reported in the same paper but without a banner headline.
    Also, although fewer people are officially unemployed, other benefits such as tax credits for low paid workers have increased far outstripping any saving on unemployment payments.
    Government borrowing also increased in April and the government deficit which was promised to be 10 billion by 2014 is still a heady 100 billion. Look in the online archive of the daily mail and you will see a headline promising that the deficit would be eliminated by 2015. Now they say 2020.
    The paper shouts about the narrowing of the trade deficit but bury the mention that exports have dropped in a smaller article. The deficit narrowed because imports dropped by more because people don’t have the money to spend.
    Basically, we are all being fed with lies backed up by selective statistics that don’t tell the full story. Read the small print though, and it is all there.
    I think the MSM tell the truth but in a way that highlights what they want us to think and they bury the inconvenient facts in small articles.
    The vast majority of people don’t understand the economy and they make do with the banner headline and the first few lines of bold text. They are happy when they read the words “BOOMING RECOVERY” at the top of the page. They may not be experiencing it first hand, but it helps them to think that the worst is over and good times are coming.
    However, I am finding it very easy to demonstrate to others now, that all is not well. It was hard a few years ago, but it is easy now. More people are starting to wake up to the reality.

    • sdfjLIBSSUCK3ru2

      everyone I know is getting 10% raises

      it is paid in elephant blubber

  • GSOB

    Can the ‘truth’ get any worse?

    (Yes)

  • Selaretus

    The market shills and the Oboob administration know 99% of the American people would rather hear comforting lies than uncomfortable truth

  • Priszilla

    you see, it’s not as bad as you think

  • sdfjLIBSSUCK3ru2

    the poster named gary2 is a commie joke

  • sdfjLIBSSUCK3ru2

    c838

  • Patrick White

    I live in Yuma Arizona :(

    • GSOB

      Aurora Colorado

  • RICHARD

    I know the economy didn’t grow as fast as they said it did, but I thought the economy in the 1st quarter grew by .01% after the revision?? That isn’t much but it is in positive territory? A lot of good info on your new site.

  • FedUp

    Gay Vet doesn’t have to dress up for Halloween.
    He’s frightening enough as is.

  • Hammerstrike

    WH spoksman: Rest assured that the Administration is working hard on a way to blame this on the Bush jr one.
    Journalist: What about the Administrations and Federal Reserve´s economic policies to solve this problem?
    WH spokesman: I just told you.

  • GSOB

    No ‘light’ there.

  • Colin

    Since I was a child, I felt that there is a tendency among Americans to concentrate on what is happening here and ignoring what is happening beyond our shores. Our history books are an example of this. I was taught that the Tea Party of 1773 was a protest against increased taxation on tea. I didn’t learn why Parliament imposed this act on Americans until I started to read history. What happened in Boston started with a drought in India.

    While we speak about our economic situation, I think we are ignoring what is happening elsewhere and how that is paralleling events here. Here is a paragraph from BBC History Magazine (May 2014, pg. 67):

    “As wages stagnate and levels of inequality appear to be widening, attitudes in class differences in Britain continue to be the subject of fraught debate. For many on the right of the political spectrum, class has thankfully disappeared and we are now a society of either “strivers” and skivers”. Meanwhile, many on the left tend to see the years after the Second World War as a golden age, when a creative and community-based working-class life flourished, only to be destroyed by Thatcherism in the 1980s.”

    (Many people on the left in the US equate Reagan with Thatcher.)

  • Mondobeyondo

    Most of you are relatively lucky. You have family and friends to support you. I have me, myself and I. So….Fight, fight, fight.

    The critics will say, “What good will that do?” Well, more good than what you’re doing right now.. As long as it’s been placed into action.
    As long as it’s placed into action.
    Read it again.
    It is by far the hardest lesson I’ve had to learn.
    As long as it’s placed into action.
    This.. this is so incredibly hard to put into motion.
    Most people will become discouraged. Include me among those people. It will crush you.

    Remember something else, everyone who reads this:
    FAITH is STRONGER than fear. It’s no easy life.
    You know what:
    Life is not meant to be pleasant, life is meant to be lived.

    This is hard, hard, HARD!!!
    But — greater is he who is in me, than he who is in the world!!

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