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Is It Just A Coincidence That The Dow Has Hit 20,000 At The Same Time The National Debt Is Reaching $20 Trillion?

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Dow Fueled By DebtThe Dow Jones Industrial Average provides us with some pretty strong evidence that our “stock market boom” has been fueled by debt.  On Wednesday, the Dow crossed the 20,000 mark for the first time ever, and this comes at a time when the U.S. national debt is right on the verge of hitting 20 trillion dollars.  Is this just a coincidence?  As you will see, there has been a very close correlation between the national debt and the Dow Jones Industrial Average for a very long time.

For example, when Ronald Reagan took office in 1991, the U.S. national debt had just hit 994 billion dollars and the Dow was sitting at 951.  And as you can see from this chart by Matterhorn.gold via David Stockman, roughly that same ratio has held true throughout subsequent presidential administrations…

Dow Fueled By Debt

During the Clinton years the Dow raced out ahead of the national debt, but an “adjustment” during the Bush years brought things back into line.

The cold hard truth is that we have been living way above our means for decades.  Our “prosperity” has been fueled by the greatest debt binge in the history of the world, and we are greatly fooling ourselves if we think otherwise.

We would never have gotten to 20,000 on the Dow if Barack Obama and Congress had not gotten us into an extra 9.3 trillion dollars of debt over the past eight years.

Unfortunately, most people do not understand this, and the mainstream media is treating “Dow 20,000” as if it is some sort of great historical achievement

The average began tracking the most powerful corporate stocks in 1896, and has served as a broad measure of the market’s health through 22 presidents, 22 recessions, a Great Depression, at least two crashes and innumerable rallies, corrections, bull and bear markets. The blue chip reading finally cracked the 20,000 benchmark for the first time early Wednesday.

During the current bull market, the second longest in history, the Dow has more than tripled since March 2009.

Since Donald Trump’s surprise election victory, the Dow has now climbed by approximately 2150 points.

And it took just 64 calendar days for the Dow to go from 19,000 to 20,000.  That is an astounding pace, and financial markets around the rest of the planet are doing very well right now too.  In fact, global stocks rose to a 19 month high on Wednesday.

So where do we go from here?

Well, if Donald Trump wants to see Dow 30,000 during his presidency, then history tells us that he needs to take us to 30 trillion dollars in debt.

Of course that would be absolute insanity even if it was somehow possible.  Each additional dollar of debt destroys the future of our country just a little bit more, and at some point this colossal bubble is going to burst.

But you can’t tell most of the “financial experts” these things.  Most of them simply believe that the “market always goes higher over time”

The “market always goes higher over time,” Todd Morgan, chairman of Bel Air Investment Advisors. “The lesson here is that through wars, recessions, elections, impeachments, financial crises, and on and on, investing for the long term in high-quality stocks is the key to building wealth. … We are telling our clients that you can’t time the market. Think long term. Stay the course. We expect the market to see Dow 30,000 in my lifetime, and for my grandchildren to see Dow 50,000 in their lifetime.”

My hope is that the market will continue to go up.  But nobody can deny that valuations are already at absurdly high levels, and the only way that this party can keep going is to continue to fuel it with more and more debt.

But for the moment, there is a tremendous amount of optimism out there, and most experts expect the Dow to continue to set new highs.  In fact, CNBC says that whenever the Dow crosses a new threshold like this it usually means good things for investors…

CNBC looked at market data from the past 30 years and zeroed in on the times when the Dow has crossed levels like 2,000, 3,000, 4,000 … all the way up to the 19,000 level it hit in November. At those times, investors can typically expect traders to push it up even higher, according to data from Kensho. Not only does the Dow go up, but it outperforms the S&P 500 index along the way.

But as USA Today has explained, not all Americans are benefiting from this stock market rally…

The breakthrough came just four trading days into Trump’s presidency, a whirlwind in which the billionaire has reaffirmed his commitment to strengthen the U.S. economy and create more jobs and higher wages for workers. Still, nearly half of Americans have not benefited from the so-called “Trump Rally,” which has generated more than $2.2 trillion in paper gains for the Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Index since Election Day. The reason: only 52% of Americans polled by Gallup last April said they “have money invested in stocks” — the lowest stock ownership rate in the 19 years Gallup has tracked the data and down sharply from 65% in 2007 before the financial crisis.

Hopefully the good times will continue to roll for as long as possible.

But there is no possible way that they can keep going indefinitely.

For decades, our debt has been growing much faster than our GDP has.  By definition, this is an unsustainable situation.  At some point we will have accumulated so much debt that our financial system will no longer be able to hold up under the strain.

Many were convinced that we would reach that point before the U.S. national debt hit 20 trillion dollars, and yet here we are.

So how much higher can we go before the bubble bursts?

That is a very good question, and I don’t know if anyone has the right answer.

But for President Trump, this is going to present him with quite a dilemma.

Either he can keep the debt party going for as long as possible, or he can try to get us to take some tough financial medicine right now.

If an attempt is made to deal with our debt problems now, we will experience severe economic pain almost immediately.

But if the can keeps being kicked down the road, our long-term prognosis is just going to keep getting worse and worse.

And if we try to delay the inevitable indefinitely, at some point the laws of economics are going to make our hard choices for us.

So let us celebrate “Dow 20,000”, but let us also understand that it is far more likely that we will see “Dow 10,000” again before we ever see “Dow 30,000”.

 
  • Bill

    The key to all predictions for now is the success rate of Trump’s actions. The 20 K market frenzy is great cover for what will become America’s incurable debt cancer.

    • Rick

      Amen brother.

  • Rick

    Didn’t you just publish a piece on how foreign governments are now cashing in on the US dollar, the debt they hold? You’ve answered your own question. We can continue to live way above our means as long as the world wants to finance it for us… Nothing more, nothing less. The moment they no longer want to, is the moment that bubble bursts, and unfortunately a lot of Americans actually do lose their livelihoods, and lives. Nothing more, nothing less.

    • sister soldier

      Sobering information.

      • Rick

        You are a woman of faith. We need to pray. Regardless of who holds the title of President. Obama did exactly what he said he was going to do. And now so far Trump has done what he said he was going to do. The American people are the ones being torn up. These Presidents couldn’t be farther apart in their beliefs, and unfortunately it looks like we’ve fallen into a country ruled by whoever has the power of the phone and pen at the time… A dictatorship in other words. I’ve not heard one testimony of a citizen from a country with a dictatorial process who said he liked it, that it didn’t hurt him, that it didn’t kill him. Sorry for the rant, and thank you for being deep!

        • sister soldier

          No apologies necessary.

    • anonymous

      It’s funny. People say they aren’t religious. I would consider a belief in one type of paper to hold any value beyond another is a type of religion. What do other governments gain by holding our debt? Do they think they will ever be repaid? Now is that faith or stupidity. Maybe I’m missing something.

      • JC Teecher

        Holding of that paper, against the wealthiest Country/Land, of resources anywhere, is because of greed and the false security that they can just come and take “repayment” at anytime.

        Now that the nwo/evil globalists/leftists dems, are out of total control to give, and sell everything to the Chinese, Russians, and Muslims, for personal gain; the opportunity to reclaim their investments for “hopefully” a long time, has ended.

        They steal enough via “hacking” as it is, anyways.

    • JC Teecher

      Possibly not, Rick.

      If Revelation is correct and is fully literal on the “one third will be killed”….. “for to slay the third part of men.”

      and Ezekiel, ….”A third part of thee shall die with the pestilence, and with famine shall they be consumed in the midst of thee: and a third part shall fall by the sword round about thee;”

      That is a whole lot of death, and if it comes “primarily” on our Nation’s debt holders…IF, just saying, it is possible; then who would be able to enforce the “collection” of that debt.

      It is possible, and God is still on the Throne.
      Also, look at which Nations hold the majority of our debt.
      The majority of their peoples, and especially ones of “communistic/atheistic” gov, controlled ones, are not about anything biblical of the One Creator, and definitely not about His Son, and Saviour to the world.

      So it is entirely possible that America’s debt will be eventually forgiven, or at least unable to be collected, because of a lender countries collapse and depleted military resources.

      • GSOB

        Fulfilled

  • Cinderella Man

    I say we fake it till we make it…ok the Obama recovery was fake we know this. But we have a real business minded man running our country now. He is doing amazing things in his first week I never would have dreamed possible!! He is a man of his word and I truly believe that we can be prosperous again. He is not stupid. He knows the Fed is the enemy and we can restructure this debt somehow. I say we just default and not pay back the federal reserve!!! How come nobody has ever thought of this?? They print our money and then loan it back to the government charging interest. This is a racket. And it’s high time for a change. I understand we owe other countries so we either pay them back or go to war. Its that simple. And if the national debt is such a big deal then how come no president has ever proposed paying it back?

    • Extinction

      False hope… not Trump, not even god can save America and the world from the coming economic crisis.
      Why no one wants to pay back? Because the messenger who brings bad news will be shot.

      • sister soldier

        God desires to save America but the problem is two fold. America does not want God in their business and they refuse to repent for it.

        • JC Teecher

          Speak for yourself, little miss debbie downer. Many of us have hope that there are more people realizing that their only hope for becoming prosperous, is through Christian principles.

          Not all the population is “stuck” in the obomanite/clintonite/bushite scum of despair.
          We are looking up, and hoping to bring many, many more with us; and that little sister is a positive thing.

          • sister soldier

            It’s really a dreadful shame to see you do such a disservice to the Body of Christ. Those who know their Bible and how the story ends – knows better. You should really stop venting your personal frustrations for all to see. It seems as if you have a personal problem and of course a spiritual one as well.

          • JC Teecher

            It isn’t about venting personal frustrations, but it is about a personal problem I have with you.

            I said nothing to you, or about you, but you “attacked” me with verbal insults over a comment, that you took umbrage to, and used me as your little whipping boy.
            So miss (taken) little sister soldier, you started this back and forth, of which I am obliged to come back at you, bearing the ropes of truth from the Lord.
            What you do with those ropes is your own doing or undoing.
            So, with that in mind here is your post that got the ole rope bearer wheels a turning.

            sister soldier @ JC Teecher • 2 days ago
            How can you stand in the council of the ungodly and sit in the seat of the scornful and then presume judgment from the Almighty on someone else? Does the Word not instruct us; “How blessed is the man who does not walk in the counsel of the wicked, Nor stand in the path of sinners, Nor sit in the seat of scoffers! But his delight is in the law of the LORD, And in His law he meditates day and night.…” What a self righteous position to take in the name of the Lord. Is that not the same as taking the Lord’s name in vain?

          • JC Teecher

            Just to add, you claim to be so “holy”, and try to consecrate yourself as being a shining example of a Christian, as you quote scripture, but then, by your own words you try and weasel out of your actions, by always having an excuse for those actions. It is evident for everyone to see by what you have said to me over the past few days.

            You voted for Trump, and then continually bash him. when questioned about it , you came up with two different reasons that you voted for a man, which you have inferred, as might be the antichrist.

            You jump on me and make an inference that I am a false prophet, but then you turn around again, and make the claim that… “and of course a spiritual one as well”, as in a problem.
            How sacrilegious is that?
            Just saying, we can all see the ramblings of a double minded person at work, and someone that never takes responsibility for their actions and words.
            Take the ropes of truth, and use them to pull yourself out of the pit, and stop casting stones at others, just to make yourself feel superior, in some childish way. You ain’t a good example of a sister soldier.

          • sister soldier

            Should a wise man answer with windy knowledge, and fill his belly with the east wind?

            Should he argue in unprofitable talk, or in words with which he can do no good?

            But you are doing away with the fear of God and hindering meditation before God.

            For your iniquity teaches your mouth, and you choose the tongue of the crafty.

            Your own mouth condemns you, and not I; your own lips testify against you.

            Are you the first man who was born?
            Or were you brought forth before the hills?

            Have you listened in the council of God?

            And do you limit wisdom to yourself?

            What do you know that we do not know?

            What do you understand that is not clear to us?

          • JC Teecher

            Ah, we see you have resorted to condemnation, via the scriptures. So the words of truth, on the ropes of conviction, have you making more accusations.

            So be it. you have a good day, and i’ll pray for you, sister. We that have eyes to see, know where your mind is centered.

          • sister soldier

            Thank you but I’m perfectly equipped, willing and able to call on the name of Jesus Christ of Nazareth for my own edification and direction; which is called intercession for the scripturally illiterate. I based my answer in the only Word that testifies of itself. It doesn’t need my human input to straighten what is crooked and turned out of the way. But nonetheless dear Brother, “Lord, how many times shall I forgive my brother who sins against me? Up to seven times?” Jesus answered, “I tell you, not just seven times, but seventy times seven.”

            So let it be written; so let it be said.

          • JC Teecher

            The only crookedness here, is in your double minded, forked tongue, vitriol against me, in the first attack comment from two days ago, that i copied and posted above…for all to see.

            If you see me as, “standing in the council of ungodly”, then pray tell, why have you put yourself on the pedestal of judgment and condemnation against me, for using words that had nothing to do with you?

            I’ll tell you why. You did it out of self-promotion on this site. You, like gsob, and a few others, take offense to my postings here, that overshadow your own self-pontificating agenda.

            That, dear sister, is what trumps truth, in your ministry. All that matters, is that you are always right and have the last word. I know, because I have seen it at work in your postings over the past year.
            Any tiny bit of disagreement from another poster, and you are all over them like stink on schmidt. If they up check or praise your comment/preaching, you then fall all over yourself in congratulating and thanking them.

            There is a difference in making a stand for truth against others that falsely accuse a person, than making a hate filled comment towards them, just because they don’t agree with you. It is in the archives..little sister.

            I am not always seen as saying the right words, but I don’t continually seek out praise and support due to my weak level self-esteem.

          • sister soldier

            I am going to take the high road and leave you to your folly rather than partake in evil with you as you lay sin to sin.

          • JC Teecher

            High Road + no negative comment = High Road

            High Road + “leave you to your folly rather than partake in evil with you as you lay sin to sin” =
            Low road, low down and dirty low road, as in …”they go low, we go high” lying about taking the high road…..
            Moochele sister soldier left wing nut!

            There. I got right down in the muck with ya for a few seconds, but have moved on to my next piece of work.

            Have a blessed (?) life.

          • GSOB

            Little Children
            Love One Another
            As The Father Loves Us
            Let Us Love Our Sister
            God is Love and Love is Of God
            And everyone that loves is born of God,
            Let us love one another.

          • JC Teecher

            Kiss off gsob, this ain’t your battle, and definitely…out of your league.

          • GSOB

            God is love and love is of God
            And everyone that loves is born of God
            Beloved, let us love one another.

          • JC Teecher

            ….and for all the bleeding heart, we are all created equal, allow me to be a doormat, Christians; let’s just follow ole gsob, and the liberals will welcome us wussified Christians with open arms.

            Well, gsob, that ain’t me, and there are many Christian brothers and sisters that don’t follow your wimpy style, either.
            We are working “boldly” as we have been instructed by the Word.
            We admonish others when they go astray, just like s.s. did, a couple days ago, with her false accusations and condemnations.

          • GSOB

            Be you followers of me, even as I also am of Christ.

          • GSOB

            Little Children

            Love One Another

            As The Father Loves Us

            Let Us Love Our Brother

            God is Love and Love is Of God

            And everyone that loves is born of God,

            Let us love one another.

          • JC Teecher

            Well, hopefully you will use the ropes of truth to free yourself, instead of becoming entangled in them as bondage. You were the first accuser.

          • SnodtBlossom

            He’s upset cause his wife loves his dog more than him.. There could be hope for you if he like Hot Cocoa though ::wink::

        • Bryan

          Truth be told I know Our countries time to repent as a whole has passed. The hope we believe we are seeing build is actually a delusion. The powers that be have their plan. The real battle field is in the hearts and minds of people. The America that was is dead any will not be revived, and SO M A N Y can’t see it. It is very sad to see but if you read 2 Timothy chapter 3 it is a mirror image of the World as a whole. Thankfully God has his plan to!

          • sister soldier

            Indeed, I’m familiar with it.

    • SnodtBlossom

      Hiya CinderellaDirtbag!

  • Jedi

    Donald Trump has put America on the straight and narrow path toward economic success. No more silly environmental regulations. He will also keep other countries in line through military strength.

  • Extinction

    Finally something sensible

  • Spatial Memory

    Obviously the writer does not know that the Dow Jones industrial average changes several component companies and modifies the divisor methodology each January.

  • billtheguy

    It took 8 years to go $10 trillion more in debt. It will take that long to reduce it. Trump is already starting to reduce the spending. It will take a lot more cuts. I think the collapse will come sooner though.

    • JC Teecher

      sorry Charlie, but it ain’t going to be reduced.
      But, to take a cut from a poor excuse for a human being; “at this point…what does it matter”.

      it don’t really matter because the whole thing will implode, and National debt, even if it is 50 trillion, will be wiped out by National bankruptcy.
      The next round of liberals that take control of the establishment led administrations, will see to that, so they can bring about the shadow gov. NWO.
      By the grace of God, and prayers of Christians in America, we may become free of the initial bondage of such a calamity…but it will eventually come upon the whole world, as Antichrist comes into power over the beast system that is set up, for him.

  • mtntrek3

    Certain things the average Joe and Jane must turn to in loans to carry on with their lives. Requirements. We must do these things in moderation of course. Understandable. Then, there are those that take out loans to finance extravagances upon extravagances. They live well above their means for the sake of their pleasurable whims. Therein lies the problem. Private and public sector included.

  • Spatial Memory

    More homespun guesswork from an uneducated and inexperienced blogger unfamiliar with debt ratios, current account ratios nor banking and finance whatsoever. One would think after being so ludicrously incorrect for such a protracted period one would attempt to educate themselves (and the readers) rather than continued doubling down on hyperbole and homespun guesswork. What an outrageous disservice to any that have blindly followed while so many have prospered from the incredibly brilliant work of Central bankers over recent times. Deny it if you must; however those facts are evident daily when his readers financial statements are viewed juxtaposed to capital markets and financial assets. Now he scrambles to place blame- the former adminstration, the current admin., even supernatural forces…anyone other than the writer of those absurd collapse rants and incredible miss of generational opportunities.

    • Guest

      Uneducated and inexperienced? The author is quite educated. He has an undergraduate degree in business. He also has a Juris Doctor, and I believe a Master of Laws degree. That’s a lot of education. Furthermore, he has written well over a thousand articles since he started blogging in 2009 or so. And he has many other sites besides this one.

      As far as the “brilliant work of Central bankers”, central banks are the root of the problems in this world, especially the Federal Reserve. The author has also written about that.

      You know nothing about the financial statements of the readers of this site.

      • sister soldier

        He is definitely educated and experienced.

    • socalbeachdude

      Thank you again for describing YOURSELF so very perfectly along with your utter lack of comprehension as to market matters.

  • Spatial Memory

    …So let us celebrate “Dow 20,000″, but let us also understand that it is far more likely that we will see “Dow 10,000″ again before we ever see “Dow 30,000″.

    Why not make a promise to yourself, your viewers and any that may rely on your financial and business acumen, etc., that the DJIA 30,000 threshold will be some form of demarcation and catalyst where education begins and the ‘shoot first, aim later’ methodology which caused such distress as to predict doomsday (since DJIA 8,000 range) is alleviated. Finance and economics cluelessness have been proven beyond any reasonable doubt whatsoever. Clinical denial and more recent gender oriented issues appear clearly evident. Real men address deficiency motivations in earnest- will DJIA 30,000 mark such self actualization ???

  • XSANDIEGOCA

    I was just reading about the South Sea Bubble in 1720. I won’t go into all the details but it was a speculative bubble that was right up there with Tulip Bulbs or the 2008 Mortgage Debacle. Shares were widely held across the British Empire. The King was a Director of the company himself. Shares had gone up 8X in very short order !! The sky was the limit !! Buy, Buy Buy…..Money poured in. Then….the inevitable and shares dropped 90-95% in very short order. The British Empire was staggered.

    “My hope is that the market will continue to go up. But nobody can deny that valuations are already at absurdly high levels, and the only way that this party can keep going is to continue to fuel it with more and more debt.”

    Remember the S&L blowout? Remember the Dot Coms? Remember the Mortgage Bust? Those 3 calamities in just my lifetime tell me it can happen again and it probably will. I agree with Spatial Memory below that we will see Dow 10K before we see Dow 30K. If we do… A 30 Trillion Dollar Debt? You gotta be kidding me…

    • Guest

      Spatial Memory quoted the article. It’s the last sentence of the article.

      • XSANDIEGOCA

        I would be happier if I saw some significant debt reduction. Let’s give it a year. If not, it is time to head for the hills.

        • Guest

          I don’t see it happening. As I commented on a previous article, the only way Trump can put this nation back onto a sustainable fiscal path is to reform the social insurance programs. Those programs are going to bankrupt this nation.

          • XSANDIEGOCA

            Correct.

          • Special Little Snowflake

            By social insurance programs I hope you mean all the corporate wealfare checks we give out

        • Special Little Snowflake

          Federal debt doesn’t really matter, it’s the personal debt aka private debt that’s the problem

          • XSANDIEGOCA

            …. and personal debt is rising!

          • Special Little Snowflake

            Yes it is, which is why the 99% need a debt jubilee.

          • XSANDIEGOCA

            D’accord !

    • Spatial Memory

      With current financial engineering and boom bust experimental policies djia10k seems very unlikely without correlated / exponential systemic risk imho

      • XSANDIEGOCA

        I recall Greenspan saying that when Markets get out of whack, they tend to adjust … violently.

  • Guest

    It’s discouraging to me. Why you ask? Because I realize that I could have gotten quite wealthy if I had bought stocks in 2009 and held them until now. Instead, I put most of my money into precious metals. It wouldn’t be so bad if I hadn’t put so much money into PMs. Will that eventually prove to be a wise decision? I hope so. But I’m quite concerned that I may never recoup the money I put into PMs.

    Trying to time the financial markets is a fool’s errand. Yes, stocks are overvalued, but that doesn’t matter. It seems that nothing matters. The Dow Jones may very well continue going higher. And our mountain debt may very well just keep getting larger. It seems there are no consequences to bad decisions anymore, except when we (the underlings) make bad decisions. Then there are consequences.

    • Spatial Memory

      Stocks generally outperform during times of creeping/moderate (0-3.5%) inflation. Any significant move +/-, be it runaway inflation or crisis then precious metals traditionally outperform.

      Asset allocation and diversification seems prudent with unprecedented CB intervention and related financial engineering. Traditional allocation is 100 minus age = percentage stock allocation. Just my $0.02.

    • SnodtBlossom

      lol.. that will teach you for being a sycophant of these kind of boards

      • Guest

        No, I didn’t make that decision based on what I read on this site. You’re utterly stupid.

        Like the author of this site, I know that there’s a big disconnect between the value of stocks and the underlying reality of the economy.

        • Muhammad

          A disconnect means a zero correlation, which is only of use when mitigating risks in a portfolio of investments. Disconnect is not an investment signal, it’s a risk signal. If your PM positions are physical holdings you can actually use them to back some profitable PM derivative trades, especially shorting mini futures and some unique Swiss contracts. BTW I know what I’m talking about, I traded a personal US$10m futures position on NYMEX. I was also head of financial risk at a global life and pensions firm.

        • SnodtBlossom

          You’re the stupid one who lost his money. I said board’s’ Note the plural.
          Well you know what they say about a Fool and his money.. A Rude Fool at that..

          • Guest

            Rude? You’re the one who is always responding to the Christian commenters on this site with “there is no god.” That is rude. Your day is coming.

          • SnodtBlossom

            Oh and you’re an Anonymous Coward too
            And there is no god. It’s not rude, it’s fact.
            It’s rude of people to plug their make-believe god

          • TrollingforTrolls

            Share your proof that there is no God

          • Agnostic Athiest

            There is over 4000 religions, the chances that your god is the correct god is mathimatically improbable.

          • anonymous

            But not impossible. Now which one to choose? That’s the eternal question (pun intended). It’s crazy that people will kill each other because of an opposing religious view. If you’re right about your belief, just be content in the fact that you are and move on. I don’t get the whole converting others thing. Unless it’s for financial gain, tithing for example. Humanity is so cruel to itself. I think that’s why I believe in a God. I don’t trust people. Just my .02

          • James Staten

            I have said this often. Life’s Only Question: What will you do with that dead Jew who got up and walked out of that Tomb? Your eternal destiny depends on Him…I will give you an example, that God’s Word is true. Zechariah was written approximately 500 years before Jesus was born. Chapters 12-14 of Zechariah makes it clear that in the last days the world will become intoxicated over getting Jerusalem away from the Jewish people. It states that it will become a Burdensome Stone to the whole world, a Cup of Trembling, and the Lord will grind to pieces everyone that comes against Her. Israel didn’t have Jerusalem until 1967..the Lord had scattered them for nearly 2,000 years then brings them back to the Land in 1948, and then they reclaim Jerusalem during the 6 Day War of 1967. On Dec 23, 2016 the UN declared that Israel doesn’t own Jerusalem, Judea or Samaria…It’s a fearful thing to fall into the hands of the Living God..Your Only Hope 1st Corinthians 15:1-4

          • Agnostic Athiest

            Math doesn’t care what your fairytail book says, the chances that your god is the correct god is slim to none

          • James Staten

            Well, two things come to mind. The Lord created Math, and you will have an eternity to realize you were told the truth, and the Truth is a Person.

          • Agnostic Athiest

            Nope man created math, just like man created religion, and just like man wrote your fairytail book.

          • James Staten

            the day is coming, and I hope for your sake, it is not to late? You have been told. Ignorance is not bliss!!!!

          • GSOB

            Atheists and agnostics, by definition, focus looks to human agency and science for knowledge, not religion.

          • guest

            So deny science which has helped more people that religion ever has? Alright…

          • Guest

            No, man discovered math. There’s a difference.

          • JC Teecher

            You are right about one thing…Man did create religion, but God created the Word and Science/Math/Elements, which when all put together it is His chemistry and numbers, and the measurement of the elements, which is Science.

            Christianity is not a religion, it is a way of life and a very big reality.
            Judaism, Catholicism, Islam, Mormonism, etc. etc. etc., are all religions created by man, which is basically a way to control man.
            Christianity is the only way to Heaven, and it is the only way to have freewill as granted by our Creator.

            Messianic Judaism is the next closest thing to Christianity, and we let God be Judge how that works out for each individual.

          • Paul Patriot

            Slim is not good enough when you are speaking of the eternity of your soul.

            The Bible as the Word of the Living God and the God of the Bible is FAR more true and reliable than just “slim”

          • Agnostic Athiest

            Id rather live my life the best I can instead of being indoctrinated to man’s religion.

          • GSOB

            ‘Forcing these chapters of descriptive judgment to leap over the historical realities of Jerusalem’s destruction in A.D. 70, so as to fit a future judgment scenario – is contrived and unnecessary.’

          • James Staten

            Short Lesson: Zechariah 12:3…show me anywhere in secular or biblical writings where in the past “All Nations” have come against Jerusalem? Dec 23, 2017 literally all nations (UN) voted to part the Land of Israel, and remove Jerusalem from a regathered people. GSOB…you will never get it until you realize the bible lays out a “Timeline” of events…Israel will soon be the Head of the Nations and not the tail, with the Messiah Jesus sitting on the Throne and reigning from Jerusalem over all the nations.

          • Guest

            Well said, James. I’d vote your comment up if I could, but I don’t have a Disqus account.

          • James Staten

            Guest…God Bless You…You have said that before. Thank you

          • Guest

            Thank you brother. The Lord has revealed His truth to you.

          • James Staten

            we chase money and we should be “Chasing” the Book!!!

          • Guest

            Yes, but it takes money to survive. Life is expensive!

          • James Staten

            You are right about money. Just read your comments, it’s hard to be gentle with gsob…chuckle, chuckle

          • GSOB

            That’s GSOB.
            Thank You

          • James Staten

            I was going to reply to your other comment to me, but I will end this now, by saying…gsob, I give credit where credit is due. You do not know how to rightly divide the Word of God!!!! enough of your silliness

          • GSOB

            Again, I’m not seeking the praise of men. I am seeking the truth. You have not revealed any to me, but have showed malice, and I have provided answers to sufficiently address your prophetic error and correct your misunderstanding.
            If you go away with doubt after your rounds with me, then the Lord I pray, will teach you the truth as He has taught me concerning this particular portion of Scripture.

          • GSOB

            And that conclusion is based on your understanding,
            I hope you would agree.
            Proverbs 28:4

          • GSOB

            I wonder which is worse, saying God Bless You after someone sneezes or when someone purports error as truth.

            Romans 12:3

          • James Staten

            please go and read the exchange between Paul Patriot and I…about sums it up

          • SnodtBlossom

            why not? they don’t accept you?

          • James Staten

            Snottly, you still have time. the bible is the Owner’s Manual for Your Soul

          • SnodtBlossom

            not worried about it

          • GSOB

            You agree to know what you think you understand, but it is a misinterpretation to it’s application that has led many that agreed, be led astray.

          • Guest

            I’m a born-again believer. The Spirit of God witnesses with my spirit that I am a child of God. (Romans 8:16) No one can pluck me out of the Savior’s hand. (John 10:28) Don’t pick on God’s children. The Lord doesn’t take it lightly.

            You’re an arrogant and presumptuous fool.

          • GSOB

            Which goes to show that Christians are in a process called sanctification. You are supporting error as a Christian. That is possible you know. And if you purport error and praise up men who do so, you are still carnal and cause strife, willingly.

          • Guest

            Yes, it’s possible. I see it whenever you post a comment on this site!

            You’re just a diminutive man with an enormous ego who attacks God’s children. That is so pathetic.

          • GSOB

            I am defending the truth.
            You however, in this day and instance,
            are not. I have said to the one you applauded, that his interpretation is in error.

            All I can say to you is, please keep reading your Bible if you own one
            Brother.

          • Guest

            I’ve been studying the Scriptures for many years now. You are NOT defending the truth.You’re defending some man’s vain imagination. Probably Kenneth Gentry.

          • GSOB

            And you can go ahead an anticipate the fulfillment of the ‘Great Tribulation’ with the time you have left.

            To do so, indicates that seductive, self centered, smooth speaking of false prophets continues to infiltrate the simple minded sheep, whom are being tossed to and fro relentlessly by their false doctrine.

            The early church had two great enemies:apostate Israel and pagan Rome. The message of Revelation was that these two persecutors, inspired by Satan, would soon be judged and destroyed.

          • GSOB

            If you must slander someone, please keep it directed towards me and not my brothers or sisters.
            Thanks

          • James Staten

            Once you understand this scripture, 1 Corinthians 10:32, will be the day you move toward rightly dividing the Word of God…my last comment to you gsob

          • GSOB

            Ok, ….The ‘All Nations’ was fulfilled when the Lord Judged Jerusalem with the Roman army, which was comprised of many nations.

            In other words, this happened when the Roman armies, made up of soldiers from the nations it conquered, went to war against Jerusalem and destroyed her in 70 A.D.

          • James Staten

            a few conscripts doesn’t make all the nations…again sometimes black ink on white paper means what it says. I know you have a hard time with the word “Literal”

          • GSOB

            I have answered your question. Do you have another
            ?

          • James Staten

            Yep, in your reply you said many nations, many is not “All”. Have you finished studying Matthew chapter 24 yet?

          • GSOB

            Yes I have read Matthew 24.

            Your interpretation that the fulfillment of Zech. 12-14 is yet to come. Mine is that it has been fulfilled. We both can not be correct. Where you are in your understanding, I’ve been there and believed it as you do. I learned that I was wrong and that those who taught it were also in error. That’s at the heart of our communication at this time.

            If you want to be evasive and defensive, nit picky and coy, if that brings you joy, please move on to someone else for your short lessons.

            Thank You

            One question at a time please and provide specific verses(s). If I can’t answer you, well then – there is found the silver lining of it all. 2 Peter 3:17-18

          • James Staten

            I think I’m pretty straight forward

          • GSOB

            We both can’t be correct. I see you are grasping tenaciously to what you believe to be true. It’s an idol so let it go. If you need to vent, I understand that to.

          • James Staten

            I asked you to give me secular or biblical writings that states “All” nations have come against Jerusalem? You have not. if you want to parse words, again many is not All.

          • GSOB

            If the literal approach is taken, one is left with the uncomfortable conclusion that the events in Revelation were fulfilled soon after they were written – between
            A.D. 66-70.

          • James Staten

            Let’s follow your admonition. One question at a time. I don’t have time to give you a religion or theology class. You replied to another’s comment that I had made. Again besides your opinion, why don’t your show your reference for written material be it secular or biblical for All Nations…You can’t even defend your own comment.

          • GSOB

            Defending the Bible is like defending a lion.

            Isaiah 10:5

            Rome was raised up, like Assyria, to be the “rod of His anger” (Isa. 10:5).

            Rome was the mistress of many lands.

            After using Rome as His rod to smite Jerusalem, God turns on Rome in judgment.
            Once again, God’s use of and judgment of ancient Assyria was the model

          • James Staten

            If Milton Terry had only lived long enough to see Israel regathering in the Land? He might have had a eureka moment, but it’s not to late for you!!!!!

          • GSOB

            I have no desire to see a great tribulation or a temple rebuilt, or to contribute to the demise of any people.
            Christ is Himself is the good land. Christ in you, the hope of glory – is the highest peak of the Divine revelation, not apostate national Israel.
            Do not remain deceived. Everything and anything any sinner can possible need or want is in Christ alone. He is the fulfillment of all the Scriptures.
            There is no going back, unless you are blinded.

          • JC Teecher

            Anyone that follows the doctrines of man, that this generation will “not” see the two tribulations, taught in Revelation, is living with deception and delusion.

            As Christ Himself stated, “these things must come to pass before my return.” (paraphrasing)

          • GSOB

            Fulfilled.

          • JC Teecher

            In the minds of the weak and confused.

          • GSOB

            No. It has been fulfilled by Christ Himself, the sovereign One, in the 1st century. it is history, for the most part and His kingdom is now and without end.

          • Guest

            You took this directly from the comment section of a previous article. Now I know that you’re not grounded in the Word of God.

          • GSOB

            What do you have that you did not receive? Why do you act as having not received then?
            The bottom line is truth……
            and in this case, regarding if Zech. chapters 12-14, they have been fulfilled in the 1st century, and further more – most of The Book Of The Revelation Of Jesus Christ has been fulfilled also.
            Those who teach differently are distracted away from the truth and diminish the glory of the new covenant established in the blood of Christ the Lord.

          • Guest

            Everything I have I received from the Lord.

            Most of the book of Revelation has NOT been fulfilled. And that in no way diminishes the glory of the New Covenant.

            You’re just taking verses of Scripture out of context.

          • GSOB

            Your unfulfilled Revelation is not unlike today’s apostate Judaism’s unfulfilled 1st coming of their Messiah.

          • JC Teecher

            James, my friend; it is apparent to anyone that has common knowledge of the bible and prophecy, that gsob is one of those that have believed a lie for so long, that the Lord has sent him “strong” delusion, so that he will continue to believe such.

            For his own protection might I add, since he hasn’t enough faith to believe the Holy Spirit can protect him through tribulation.
            It is the same type “strong” delusion that God has placed on some of the pre-tribbers.

            God protects those of His weak children that are unable to muster up enough faith…the size of a mustered seed.

          • James Staten

            Remember several months ago when he spiritualized all of Matthew 24, and I believe you got involved? I honestly thought he and I would go our separate ways? I said earlier, and I will say again, be it Believer or Unbeliever..he is an equal opportunity Basher

          • Paul Patriot

            Now I’m confused. If revelation was fulfilled in ad 66-70 then how can you explain all the judgements mentioned in revelation that will be poured down on earth as judgement from God, how do you explain a one world system where NO ONE could buy or sell, and I don’t think the entire world between AD 66-70 worshipped the antichrist.

            I would appreciate any help in understanding this?

            Thank you and God Bless

          • GSOB

            Judgment
            no
            ‘e’

          • socalbeachdude

            And just what does that have to do with the federal debt of $20 trillion or the Dow 30 stock index?

          • GSOB

            Why, you want some of the attention I’m getting?

          • socalbeachdude

            Why is it so difficult for you to stay anywhere close to the topic of an article?

          • James Staten

            a few months ago he told me all of Matthew 24 was Spiritualized…Now this is Jesus talking about the end times to His disciples, and it’s all Spiritual in nature..please, I could continue

          • Paul Patriot

            Thank you brother. I thought something was off with his theology. There is a name for those who adhere to the doctrine that revelation has been fulfilled….I want to say preterists (preterism) but not 100% sure.

            I think many of these folks also seem to lean towards replacement theology.

            Grace be with you!!

          • James Staten

            I think he has called himself a partial Preterist?

          • GSOB

            Let me help you not to improperly describe me, I am a Saint in Christ Jesus and its not about me.
            A Partial Preterist and Postmillinialist, neither of which is close to the superiority of the theology you have…..and it is not main stream in Christendome today, ….not since the 19th century at least.

          • Guest

            Well said, James.

          • James Staten

            I have told him for the last year or two that he is an Equal Opportunity Basher. Be it Believer or Unbeliever

          • GSOB

            Know the difference b/t a glove & a hand?

          • GSOB

            I hope you feel better.

          • JC Teecher

            See above, for a partial understanding of the false teachings that Nero was being seen as the Antichrist, because of all his tortures/deaths, against Christians

          • GSOB

            John was a Jew.
            The book of Revelation must be interpreted with one eye on the OT because it’s the most thoroughly Jewish in its language and imagery of any NT book.

          • JC Teecher

            99% of all Christians, that are at least half way educated on the Bible, knows that John penned the book of Revelation while on the Isle of Patmos, and it is dated sometime from AD 89-96.
            The other (minor) summation, that you follow, was that it was written (because of the ignorance of the day), that Nero was the Antichrist, and all was written and fulfilled around the dates of 69 -79 AD, under Vespasian. Bull Caca!
            Nero was just another “type”, just like Odrama is. Nero killed many Christians by their flesh, but Odrama may have killed just as many by following him, as deaths of their souls.
            How many millions of Bible toting Christians, praised him, (especially blacks), and still do until this day.
            A vote for a liberal, especially the evil ones like billery and Odrama, is a vote against God.
            It has put many a soul in jeopardy.

          • GSOB

            Luke 15:4

          • JC Teecher

            Looks like I am going to have to block you again. I can’t handle the confusion you render.

          • socalbeachdude

            Jesus of Nazareth was the world’s first and most prominent SOCIALIST.

          • sf_jeff

            From a historical perspective he almost reminds me of Martin Luthor King, Jr., who was actually fighting for poor of all stripes, rather than just blacks.

          • Guest

            You have not answered his question, fool.

          • GSOB

            Now, now, please behave yourself and watch your demeanor and conduct,
            yes….I am a fool
            for Christ.
            Thank You

          • Guest

            Oh, so now you’re claiming the moral high ground? You are devious and wicked.

          • Guest

            That’s utterly ridiculous, GSOB.

          • GSOB

            Resistance is futile Luke 2:1

          • Guest

            Oh, so you’re the Roman Caesar now?

          • Paul Patriot

            good point. My understanding though is the context of the “all nations” is in the end times before battle of aremgeddon, Jacobs trouble(70th week ) of Daniela prophecy, before Christ touches down on my of olives, etc

          • guest

            No the UN just wants to give the Palestinian land, which Israel has been stealing, back to *gasp* the Palestinians. Isreal has been violating International law and since it is part of the UN, must abide to UN law.

          • James Staten

            First Deed of Land ever issued is in Scripture, and that has been around a whole lot longer than the UN.

          • AtheistAtheist

            And evolution is statsistically impossible. That old law of biogenesis just can’t be beat.

            But will that stop your religious belief in evolution?

          • GSOB

            Ah, but the very fact there is so many reveals an underlying truth,….. that man knows there is a God and seeks to be made right with Him and man’s terms.

            Some folks choose to not recognize that profound and fundamentally basic truth and categorically dismiss religion altogether.

            Is that not you?

          • Agnostic Athiest

            Is there a god? Mabey, thats why I’m Agnostic. Do I think it’s any of the 4000 gods that man has made up? No.

          • TrollingforTrolls

            Psalm 46:10.

          • duce

            Moron, share your proof there IS a god.
            You can’t, it’s pure BS

          • GSOB

            The very fact that you are alive proves that God exists. Do you agree with that? If not, tell me, why are you here?

          • James Staten

            To say there is no God, one must be an idiot. Walk out and look up, the Heavens declare His Glory. Saying there is not a Creator God is like a silly comparison of taking all the pieces of a Swiss watch and placing them in a shoe-box and shaking the box, then opening the box, and the watch is together and running!!! As the Bible states only a Fool says there is no God. The Lord Jesus put on a tent of human flesh and became one of us. 1st Corinthians 15:1-4

          • GSOB

            ….yet He was without sin.

          • GSOB

            He is invisible so, He left us His Word and He has poured out His Spirit. The gospel message continues to be proclaimed. What more can we provide you?

            Only He can make an axe head float in water.

          • natxlaw

            An anonymous coward, as you given legal name is Snot W. Blossom MD PHD JD DDS Esquire.

          • SnodtBlossom

            At least Snodt is a “handle” .. not just a Faceless Coward like “guest” who could be anyone

          • GSOB

            Your flesh is in the light right now.

          • SnodtBlossom

            SocalDude, they don’t like you either.

          • sf_jeff

            I am curious. Do you see the Christian voter block as having been for the Iraq war? Or maybe against the Iraq war, but it was less important than other voting priorities?

        • Mr.Cipher

          Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

        • GSOB

          Born again?

          • Guest

            Taken from the King James Bible.

            John 3:3,7

            Are you that biblically illiterate?

          • GSOB

            You decide. Your words do not line up with your birthright.

          • Guest

            Yes, you ARE that biblically illiterate.

          • GSOB

            Well, I guess I just don’t wear the same clothes as you.
            Thanks

    • alan

      You needed insider information.

    • Jerry C

      PMs are more meant as a means to retain the value of your money; which historically it does. And yes, stocks are based upon fiat currency overvaluing them and will lead to an eventual devaluation. Patience.

    • Paul Patriot

      When the dollar collapses you will be very happy you have tangible assets that have been considered real money for 6000+ years.

      Keep your head up, PM is a good tangible store of wealth.

      • David Hammond

        The only thing is…if it does collapse, who’s going to buy your PM so that it can be converted into a currency for trade?

        • anonymous

          If there’s a collapse, lead will be more precious than gold.

          • JC Teecher

            …and, eventually, bread & beans will be more valuable than lead.

      • socalbeachdude

        The US dollar is certainly not going to “collapse” and is soaring upwards with huge gains in both purchasing power of commodities and in its exchange rate against other currencies on the DXY and is the most important currency in the world used in more than 83% of global transactions and that will continue for the foreseeable future. Get ready for the dollar to go perhaps as high as 164 on the DXY from its present level of around 100.

        • Paul Patriot

          Not in my recent experience traveling abroad, the dollar continues to lose its purchasing power.

          What happens when other nations decide to end the petrol dollar?

          • socalbeachdude

            The exchange value of the US dollar has appreciated upwards by more than 20% since 2014 which makes traveling abroad much less expensive in most countries and it has soared over the past year against the UK pound in particular.

            There is no such thing as the “petrodollar” and oil only accounts for LESS THAN 7% OF GLOBAL TRADE in which the US dollar is used and total transactions in US dollars accounts for more than 83% of all global trade.

            Oil can be and is purchased by countries in currencies other than US dollars and the most common currency other than the US dollar that oil is traded in is the EuroZone Euro.

        • sf_jeff

          Any thoughts on why the dollar has been so strong it has been able to drive a large trade deficit the last few decades? My main ideas are:

          1) Winner take all mentality. Never go with #2 in an investment class.
          2) Other countries prefer weak currency so we end up with strong currency by default, kind of like the guy who doesn’t step back when you call for a volunteer.
          3) We have given ourselves a robust stock market by sending a lot of our public dollars into the investment side of things. This creates a chain reaction drawing in foreign-sourced dollars as well.

          • socalbeachdude

            There is no currency now or in the foreseeable future that can even begin to challenge the supremacy of the US dollar which is used in 83% of all global transactions. The stock markets in the US are driven by GREED, HOPIUM, and FALSE PERCEPTIONS and are totally detached from the underlying fundamentals and have very little to do with the exchange value of the US dollar.

      • sf_jeff

        Why would the dollar collapse that far instead of just the economy collapsing the way it did from 1929-1932?

    • Just Wondering

      There is no asset class that remains as the ideal investment all the time.
      We should shift between asset classes based on the cycles they are in.
      Most of the time the length of cycles is around 7 or 8 years (Top to top or Bottom to Bottom) or between 3 to 4 years Top to Bottom.

      If you say that, you lost a lot of money in PM, I believe that most of your PM is not bought in 2009 but when PM topped in 2011 or in the 4 years to 2015 when PM was in the bearish or down part of its cycle

      The stocks cycle is negatively correlated to PM and so was in the bullish or up part of its cycle

      If you had bought your PM in 2009 and held till now you will have more than tripled your investment.
      Check the Gold to Dow Ratio. If you bought PM in 2009, your PM would have outperformed the Dow

      Based on cycles,the years from 2011 to 2015 is the wrong time to buy PM. I believe that you bought a fair amount of silver and that made your loss more severe.

      Silver is gold on steriods. In the down part of the cycle it falls more than gold (Gold fell from $1900 in 2011 to $1045 in 2015 while silver fell from $49 to below $14)

      We are now in the bullish part of the cycle and based on typical cycle length, should peak in 2019. The peak in 2019 should be higher than the peaks in 2011. Based on the current price of $17 for silver and $1,200 for gold, there is tremendous upside potential for PM

      In 2019 or in 2020,you should sell PM and buy stocks or property and cycles turn

      Point 2
      The Dow may not go down to 10,000 but go up to 30,000 even though cycles tell us that now is not the time for stocks. By printing huge amounts of money and pumping it into the system, both debts and stock prices can be pushed higher like mentioned in the above article.
      Dow at 30,000 in say 2018 is a 50% gain from the present level. PM will at that time would have risen many times more than 50%

      The national debt and money base of the USA was stable until Nixon took the US$ off gold. That removed the limit on the amount of US$’s that can be printed.
      Gold in 1971 is at $35.
      Gold now is $1,200 or 34X that in 1971.
      How much did the Dow gain from 1971 till now?

      If the government continue to step up the printing of money and increasing the national debt to allow the Dow to reach 30,000, PM will be may times higher than the present prices

    • Christoph Weise

      You had made money if you bought in 2009 the right stocks and if you had a heart to get rid of them timely. Most people achieve neither of the two.

    • RobSa

      If in July 2010 had you invested that money in bitcoin when one bitcoin cost 8 cents you would now have 10,000 times more money.

  • Bruce

    Trump him self said during the debates that 24 trillion is the point of no return.

    • sister soldier

      Thank you for keeping such efficient information. But how soon we forget.

  • Capital Creator

    The anti-intellectual plebeian needs to retake economics 101. He is simply unable to comprehend the glory and supreme, pulchritudinous nature of science and its connection to capitalism–the very fuel of innovation.

    He does not understand that correlation does NOT necessarily equate to causation.

    This individual must be that throbbing, festering blister that bogs down productivity. I heard somewhere that you were an attorney. I believe in such anecdotes, considering one can purchase “law degrees” in the Cayman Islands. They possess a stellar banking system, but their educational institutions is lackluster compared to others.

    Yes, the market goes up–its regurgitated truth from the dismal science that everyone, from the chief executive to his janitor, are well aware.

    Personally, as a result of dealing with volatile financial instruments–forex, options and futures come to mind–I average about 42% returns monthly.

    No, I did not forget about gold, as I have several kilograms of it. I am most fond of gold, as it is very useful in electronics, and Rolex manufacturing.

    I must offer my conjecture. Something tells me you had short positions on stocks after that financial “disaster” and lost money threefold.

    “So let us celebrate “Dow 20,000″, but let us also understand that it is far more likely that we will see “Dow 10,000″ again before we ever see “Dow 30,000″.”

    I understand. I revoke my previous statement. You are likely not a withering philistine, nor are you severely uneducated. You simply deceive the ignorant masses, so you are by definition a charlatan. Now, what did God say about lying (in this article), and utilizing deception for personal gain (advertisement revenue on this website)?

    If the Dow were to collapse to 10K, rather than skyrocket to 30K, what are the implications?

    How is Federal Reserve detrimental? I am not all that fond, but such sentiment is personal opinion. It would be worse if Congress or God forbid any POTUS were able to control the money. Think of the social and economic ramifications, which are indeed dire.

    The debt, in a way, was supposed to theoretically limit the spending power of sane government. Ours is not sane, it is insane. I would say the Fed should loan the money at 100% compounding interest, and grant bondholders the privilege of charging whatever interest rates the so desire. so maybe they will think twice about social security and USD78000 Javelin missiles.

  • mtntrek3

    God decides when it’s over financially and otherwise. He’s about to call it. Christ first.

  • JC Teecher

    “Since Donald Trump’s surprise election victory, the Dow has now climbed by approximately 2150 points.”

    When the Dow hit that magic 20k all time high yesterday, I was happy for all those folks that are about to retire and have the majority of their $$ invested in a stock portfolio retirement account, especially those that are locked in to something like a 401k.

    Personally, it will not affect me and the wife in anyway whatsoever. But this is much bigger than greed and jealousy/envy. This is about “blessings” coming for America, the Land of the Free.
    Yes we still have problems, and will continue to see bumps in the road.
    Eventually, when the liberals get their chance again, and they will; it will all go south again, and the blessings will turn into curses, to bring about the consummation of the end of this Age.

    But for now, just look at it as a blessing from above. Yesterday was the first day of a long trend of positive possibilities for America. Yesterday marked a beginning of new possibilities for making America great again.
    We saw all the number sevens (7) when Michael laid out all the lists of the number 7, that were attached to Trump. Yesterday I saw a bigger number than the DOW hitting 20k; it was the date of 1-25-2017.
    What I saw was 1 + 2 + 5 = 8
    If seven is representative of divine perfection, completeness, and God’s deliverance; then the number “eight” is representative of New Beginnings….for God’s people, for His chosen, for His true Christians.

    So, 2017 may be seen as 2 x (ought) 1 + 7 (8) = 16
    The Meaning of Numbers: The Number 16
    The number sixteen is symbolic of love and loving. Christians are to become perfected in God’s love not just by physically obeying the Commandments (which should be done anyway) but also by following the full spiritual INTENT of our Creator’s laws and judgments (Matthew 22:37 – 40). This duality of true love is represented by 8 + 8 = 16.

    In the Old Testament, 16 of the various names and titles for God specially signify His constant, never-ending love for the children of Israel.

    Or one can just simply use the number 17 of 2017.

    In the Bible the number 17 symbolizes “overcoming the enemy” and “complete victory.”
    Well one thing is for sure, God overcame the enemy when He answered the prayers of Christians and Messianic Jews, in America, by allowing D Trump to defeat the evil agendas of the past four administrations/presidencies over America.

    All the numbers are more than symbolic; they cause many to have a renewed hope for their future. I for one, am hopeful for folks to be thankful, and realize where their blessings are coming from, and to work towards the “rejuvenation” of the American Spirit.

  • LIZ THE SHIZ

    bubbles burst!!

    • SnodtBlossom

      Trantute

  • J

    Your commentary overlooks the several changes that has occurred in the Dow 30 over the years. Anyone’s portfolio would look much better if they never accounted for the purchases that they made and the subsequent investment went down the toilet.

    It would be interesting to see what the Dow would be at today, with the 1987 components, presuming they are still in business today, and not the several changes in the Dow that occurred over the years.

    • socalbeachdude

      With the same 30 component stocks that were in the DJIA 30 (Dow) back in 1929, the valuation of the Dow would presently be NEARLY ZERO with only one of those component stocks even still in business.

      • Spatial Memory

        100% false

        • socalbeachdude

          What I stated is, of course, 100% correct.

          ONLY ONE DOW (DJIA 30) STOCK LEFT ON INDEX SINCE 1928

          The only stock still on the Dow Jones Industrial 30 stock index known as the DJIA 30 or “the Dow” is GE. All of the other stocks have either failed or been acquired and substituted from the 1928 group of stocks on the Dow.

          If not for all of the stock substitutions on the Dow, that index would now be nearly ZERO.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

  • alan

    Red 22 come on rrrrred 22….. DOH!

  • Richard O. Mann

    Never fly higher than you care to fall. Oh boy. The higher it goes, the harder the fall will be. I don’t have any stocks either. When I lost my good paying telecom job in 2001, my 401K plan was later used to do some work on the house and other needed things. Anyhow, the old adage about what goes up much come down, applies to the stock market and world financial markets. I have the feeling that when it does happen, it will be ugly.

  • jsmith

    The stock market is like a gold digger. She pulls you in with all the frills and thrills, and once she has drained you of all your money and self respect she dumps you. I learned that when I was 32 years old with a 21year old! At least I wasn’t married and picked myself up. Remember the crash of 1929? Remember 2008? Yeah, they pull you in like Michael Corleone said. it’s an insiders game folks. It’s rigged, and most of you don’t know when to get out.

    • anonymous

      Or a new car. But I like your analogy too.

    • socalbeachdude

      The stock markets are a SPECULATIVE GAMBLING GAME and are not rigged at all but driven by SPECULATION which is based in the emotions of fear and greed which is why there are MARKET CYCLES.

      • Liar Liar

        Wronnnggg

        • socalbeachdude

          How is my statement in any way “wrong?”

          • Spatial Memory

            You can’t be serious. Get an education. LOL

          • socalbeachdude

            Why do you keep totally embarrassing yourself putting up such nonsense that shows a total lack of comprehension?

      • Spatial Memory

        ROTFLMAO

  • DJohn1

    There is a formula process that has been active since the 1930s.
    The government creates paper cash out of nothing from which they pay the bills and an endless level of inflation occurs.
    In the 30s through the 70s we had a counter force in which people received wage increases usually either through unions or through “me too” negotiations.
    Then we encountered a bill we could not pay. That was the debt incurred by the war in Vietnam. That Bill when Nixon took office was some where around 450 billion pre-nixon dollars based on $35 an ounce of gold.
    The country was basically bankrupt and there was a real currency crisis in which our currency inflated at over 12% per year. Our relationship with other currencies was very much in jeopardy with too many people owning dollars abroad.
    A commodity with limited amounts available was gold. Another one was land. On the land front, the value in dollars of land increased substantially in the 70s.
    Nixon took us off the gold standard of $35 per ounce and it soon took the dollar to approximately $600 per ounce of gold.
    So instead of payingh the debt back with $35 per ounce of gold we paid it back with $600 plus dollars per ounce of gold.
    In 1980, another crook named Reagan destroyed the economic base of raises through labor unions with his decision to destroy the Air Controllers union.
    He cost every home owner in America approximately 5,000 dollars in the value of their property by increasing the mortgage rate from 7% to 18% on a fixed rate loan.
    That is why I call him a crook. A lot of people think he was a great President. He also manipulated the labor board so Unions were not viable any more. In today’s world only the government Unions continue to survive in any viable way.
    Labor laws dating all the way back to FDR were cast aside and the middle class paid for it big time in not keeping up with inflation with wage increases like we had done before.
    None of which is publicized in the public media.
    I was there. I was a Real Estate agent when those interest rates destroyed the marketplace for Real Estate.
    I was a union steward when Reagan violated the trust of the middle class with anti-labor actions.
    When I left the labor force and retired the wage increases at my company were lucky to be 2.5% with an inflation rate closer to 4.5%.
    The entire economy of this country is dependent on the labor force having discretionary income. Otherwise everything is paid for with credit that ends up in massive bankrupties.
    The current Republican in charge is setting policies that will trash the retail industry of this country making even the least purchase double what it costs today.
    Retail industry cannot stand without a wage base for the average people out there that gives them discretionary income to work with. They will be lucky if they do not starve.
    Meantime no party is defending the labor force of this country or the counter balance of the unions that once existed and the sole purpose of which was to counter inflation and defend worker[‘s rights in the work place.
    It is no wonder to me that corporations have left our shores in such heavy numbers.
    Bringing them back to our shores is a wonderful idea. Except the back lash of price increases on the average retail goods. And that will occur.
    One thing he is doing right is to trash the bureaus of government.
    Another is to reduce regulation and taxes.
    But without a balancing factor in wage increases it will cause the greatest inflationary depression in history.
    20 trillion is only as good as its purchasing power. This debt too will either be declared a bankruptcy or it will probably be paid back at about 10 cents on the dollar as our currency is destroyed.

    • Brad

      Well spoken in all you said, and well informed; Unions have been abusive in their past and became too powerful and excessive in their own right, but they were created under great duress and sacrifice by those at their beginning who saw the excesses and abuses of the robber barons under unfettered Capitalism. The pendulum swings in both directions with nearly all things in life. There is a golden place between Liberalism and Conservatism. Outside of overt racism, the 50’s were probably the time in which the economic and social pendulum was set even. Culturally, we have moved way too far to the left and the pendulum will swing back. The majority has little voice in our current environment and Trump was the response to this. The sad note, is that civilizations move gently to the left, but when it becomes necessary to correct the excesses of liberalism, the move to the right will nearly always be painful and with much loss.

      • guest

        What!? Unions have become to powerful? Only about 7% of US citizens are in a union compared to about 20% back in the 60s, if I remember correctly. And please, tell me how we have gone to far left. If anything we’ve ben going to the right ever since Nixon, because believe it or not it was Nixon who was our last liberal president.

    • socalbeachdude

      The US government does no such thing at all.

  • USA Slave

    The only reason the Dow hit 20k is because Trump signed our death warrant in the form of approving Dapl and KXL…buckle up folks global warming is gonna be excelerated like none other

    • Spatial Memory

      Accelerated ???????

    • socalbeachdude

      Absolutely false.

  • Orac4Prez

    So by this analysis, you should have voted for Obama! By the end of his (third) next term you could have probably doubled or tripled your money. Since that’s not permitted, his stand in – Hillary would have known what to do and (since she has political experience as SnodtBlossom tells us) would have been able to get the printing presses into overdrive! Woe to us! The US could have being in Weimar Republic territory already, with hyperinflation by now…

    • socalbeachdude

      The US government has no “printing” control over the Federal Reserve which is the only entity which can create money in the United States.

  • Brad Menger

    I think the best we may hope for Trump is that he can bring enough industry back to America before the eventual world wide collapse. When this takes place (and I am convined it will), we will be much better able to weather the storm if we produce nearly everything we require here.

  • Brad

    Look at Brazil’s stock market: it’s at all time highs and their economy is in shambles. The modern stock market is a terrible indicator to the health of a nation’s economy. I wonder whether we will see Dow 60,80,100,000 in a few years. If we (the world) enter a hyperinflationary great depresssion, we as the holder of the world’s reserve currency may be perceived as the highest point in the toilet bowl that is being flushed. People of all nations may be looking to shed their dollars, which may be perceived as becoming more worthless by the day like everything in their own economies. If they think holding the dollars is less advantageous within their own ecomomies, they may dump them into the only place they can quickly put them to use: in the States and know they maintain and gain value against their own failing currencies; within our stock market. A market at 80,000 may sound great, but if a loaf of bread is $35, the money stored in the market takes on a whole new interpretation.

    • socalbeachdude

      We are in a huge GLOBAL DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL which is rapidly intensifying. Loaves of bread were as cheap as 39 cents a loaf at Ralphs here in Southern California last week.

      • Brad

        Often hyperinflationary events come with a stage of deflation.. Velocity of money slows during the deflation depression stage and when enough money is printed to counter that situation by the irresponsible actors in control of our money supply. As that happens, the money begins losing inherent value in noteably shorter and shorter periods of time: Its “off to the races” as they say, and the dumping of the currency begins.

        • socalbeachdude

          The situation you are describing has applicability to CHINA but not to the US.

          The money supply in the US with dollars has not increased much at all and is TINY in comparison with the US economy and assets in the US, whereas in China the PBOC has “printed” more than $30 trillion in renminbi (RMB / yuan) over the past 10 years increasing the Chinese money supply from less than $3 trillion to over $34 trillion and the renminbi is now collapsing in value even though its value has been substantially pegged with minimal float to the value of the dollar.

  • Christoph Weise

    Assets are inflated. The numbers go up but the values do not. Credit expansion causes inflation. Inflation includes money. Money that does not yield anything is without any value. Twenty years ago 1 million cash invested in bonds yielded 80.000. Enough for a modest living. Today you need to pay something to keep the cash on an account. The central banks have killed our economic system. Unfortunately these idiots are still allowed to stay on the helm.

  • RobSa

    The problem with the USA today is all the mass delusion.

    • Spatial Memory

      Mass dilution.

      • socalbeachdude

        Massive corporate share buybacks are the exact opposition of dilution in stocks and result in far less shares of stocks outstanding.

  • autofixer

    “Don’t fight the Fed.” The End.

    • socalbeachdude

      The Federal Reserve has nothing whatsoever to do with the stock markets and has WARNED REPEATEDLY over the past 8 years about excessive speculative valuations in those markets.

      • Spatial Memory

        Educate yourself on banking and finance, “bulge bracket”, regulation T, regulation U- not limited to lol

        • socalbeachdude

          Regulations T and U are essentially IRRELEVANT and only relate to margin debt used to purchase stocks.

          U.S. Buyback Announcements Tumble to a 2012 Low

          Stock buybacks appear to be slowing down, suggesting either corporate America’s outlook has dimmed, stock valuations have become prohibitively high or, most optimistically, that companies are starting to listen to investors and put funds toward other uses.

          Buybacks announced for the second quarter’s earnings season between July 8 and August 15 totaled an average of $1.8 billion a day, the lowest volume in an earnings season since the summer of 2012, according to TrimTabs Investment Research.

          Share repurchases have been a key driver of this year’s stock market rally, despite a notable deceleration relative to to the same period in 2015. In the first seven months of 2016, buybacks totaled $376.5 billion, according to TrimTabs. That’s down 21 percent from $478.4 billion in the first seven months of last year. Equity buybacks last week totaled just $2.6 billion, while record highs in U.S. stocks triggered an increase in new equity offerings.

          “The reluctance to pull the trigger on share repurchases suggests corporate leaders are becoming less enthusiastic about what they see ahead,” David Santschi, chief executive officer of TrimTabs, said in a press release on Tuesday. That means “buybacks aren’t likely to provide as much fuel for the stock market as they have in the recent past.”

          http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-16/u-s-buyback-announcements-tumble-to-2012-low

          • Spatial Memory

            Regulation U has covered securities credit extended by commercial banks since 1936. Two significant events occurred in 1968 and 1998. First, in 1968 the Federal Reserve Board adopted Regulation G to cover securities credit extended by lenders other than banks, brokers, and dealers. Regulation G was merged into Regulation U in 1998. Second, in 1968 the Board received the authority to publish a list of OTC stocks that were subject to Regulation U to the same extent as exchange-traded stocks. In 1998, the Board ceased publication of its OTC list in favor of reliance on the listing standards for the Nasdaq Stock Market’s National Market

            ….from frb site… Far from irrelevant and much more than “stocks”

            Keep guessing. You’re easy to debunk.

          • socalbeachdude

            As I clearly stated, those regulations are essentially IRRELEVANT to stock values.

          • Spatial Memory

            You’ve stated ludicrously inaccurate guesswork for the last 8,000+ djia point advance. Thanks again for the many laughs. 🙂

          • socalbeachdude

            No. I have stated the facts whereas you have stated “guesswork” that is fantasy. Bloomberg has very thoroughly covered the impact of corporate buybacks on extreme manic stock valuations.

          • Spatial Memory

            Again it’s beyond obvious you have zero knowledge nor practical application.

          • socalbeachdude

            Once again, that describes YOU and your nonsensical notes quite perfectly!!!

          • Spatial Memory

            That “nonsensical note” is cut and paste off frb site. Rotflmao

          • socalbeachdude

            That quote is TOTALLY IRRELEVANT to stock market valuations.

          • Spatial Memory

            The Federal Reserve CERTAINLY is relevant. Your ridiculousness is irrelevant and has caused you being laughed off of and blocked from many sites while stocks and metals have literally skyrocketed while you’ve predicted crashes daily. 🙂

          • socalbeachdude

            Gold is a preposterously inflated little niche fungible commodity with a wildly volatile price history ever since 1971 and is currently on a move than 5 year downward move which has seen its price plunge by around 45% to $1,191 per ounce from $1,927 per ounce which was its high on September 5, 2011 and it is in the process of reverting to its mean of $456 per ounce and then headed even lower to perhaps as low as $232/ounce.

          • Spatial Memory

            Gold has been a store of wealth for centuries and without doubt has appreciated substantially while you repeatedly predicted absurd guesswork between 250-400 per oz. LoL

          • socalbeachdude

            That was true when gold stayed constant at around $20 per ounce for well over 200 years from 1793 until 1933, but certainly is absolutely FALSE after 1971 when gold became a MANIC SPECULATIVE COMMODITY with massive swings both up and down in its price. Silver has plummeted around 70% since hitting in manic speculative high in 2011 and gold is now down nearly 50% over the same period of time which is not only not a “store of wealth” but rather MASSIVE WEALTH DESTRUCTION over the past 5 year time period. Keep in mind that those metals and any other assets can only ever fall 100%.

          • Paul Patriot

            So, what is your opinion about at least having some silver and gold as a wealth preserver if the dollar should collapse, like Wiemer Germany?

            If you do not thnk PM are good for that, what do you think is a long term wealth preserver in the event oif an economic collapse?

          • socalbeachdude

            As long as your purchased gold near or below its mean of $456 per ounce, then I see no problem holding it as an asset. Even prices up to around $660 per ounce don’t pose huge downside risk. But, in my opinion, paying even 50% of the currently nearly $1200 per ounce for bullion gold is certainly not an advisable thing to do.

            As to silver, its mean is around $8 per ounce and it has plummeted from $50 per ounce for a drop of around 70% over the past more than 5 years since September 5, 2011 and it has substantial downside risk at anything about $8 per ounce.

          • Paul Patriot

            Thank you for taking the time to respond with such interesting information.

          • socalbeachdude

            You are quite welcome, Paul.

  • rentslave

    The Kingfish would say:”Andy,you’ve got 20-20 vision.”

  • Spatial Memory

    Heavy tape. 3-6% pullback – 10% correction before March 31. Jmho

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    False. Most of the gains in the stock markets in the US over the past 8 years have been due to MASSIVE STOCK BUYBACKS AND DIVIDENDS paid out by companies trading on the exchanges and much of that was done with BORROWED MONEY leaving a wake of more than $14 billion of corporate debt in the US.

  • SnodtBlossom

    It’s a talent.. Don’t be jealous

    • GSOB

      John 3:18-19

  • socalbeachdude

    US stocks are now the most overpriced since the 2000 crash

    On March 30, 1999, the Wall Street Journal’s front page headline blasted the good news across the world:

    “Dow Industrials Top 10,000”

    The day before, the all-important US stock index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, closed above 10,000 for the first time in history.

    It was a major milestone, and investors cheered.

    A few investors, however, were concerned.

    They felt that US stocks were too expensive, and the entire market was in a dangerous bubble.

    But the Wall Street Journal answered those naysayers, as the headline of the second article on the front page ominously read:

    “If this is a bubble, it sure is hard to pop.”

    US stocks right now are selling at the HIGHEST price-to-sales ratio in at least 15 years, and far higher than it was before the 2008 crash.

    Similarly, the cyclically-adjusted Price/Earnings ratio of the US stock market is now at its highest level since the 2000 crash, and higher than it was before the 2008 crash.

    Looking at other metrics like Enterprise Value to EBITDA (a measure of a company’s core business operating cashflow), US stocks are also at their most expensive levels since the 2000 crash.

    https://www.sovereignman.com/investing/us-stocks-are-now-the-most-overpriced-since-the-2000-crash-20733/

  • nohomehere

    I only wonder out loud, how will the have,s keep the have nots keep from tearing down the whole system in favor of a more equitable one. What is gold compared to food and security in the end reduction sauce?

    Remember in water world the movie that dirt bought Chits and chits bought drinking water and tomatoes ect …items from the past were used differently and values change post civilization !

  • socalbeachdude
  • Evan Wise

    The debt is backed by the stocks.. the stocks are backed by the debt,, it’s smoke and mirrors

    • socalbeachdude

      No debt is backed by stocks except MARGIN DEBT used to purchases stocks. Stock shares are EQUITY POSITIONS. The overall debt of more than $64 trillion in the US is mostly BOND DEBT with around $20 trillion of that being US Treasuries (federal government debt) which has nothing whatsoever to do with stocks.

      • Spatial Memory

        Why waste bandwidth with such inaccurate nonsense?

        • socalbeachdude

          What I stated is 100% true and correct.

          • Spatial Memory

            Plenty of encumbrances on stocks outside “margin debt”. You have zero factual knowledge.

          • socalbeachdude

            Only in the context that it relates to CORPORATE STOCK BUYBACKS which has been the primary driver of the markets over the past 8 years.

          • Spatial Memory

            Continue providing how little you know- obviously near zero after that comment. Stick with cut and paste your guesswork is ludicrously flawed.

          • socalbeachdude

            Thank you for describing YOURSELF and your clueless nonsense so very perfectly!!!

          • Spatial Memory

            the transformation from capitalization weighted indicies to float weighted has been exponentially more impactful. Media will spoon feed that data in the future then you can add that to your pretend. repertoire. Watch and learn again.

          • socalbeachdude

            What utter nonsense.

          • Spatial Memory

            Your reply explains your crash cries while spx has nearly tripled in price. LOL

      • Liar Liar

        Weoooooong

        • socalbeachdude

          What specifically is in any way “wrong” about what I stated?

        • Paul Patriot

          Speak and elaborate some more as to why socaldude is wrong.

          Simply responding with one word, does not do much but take up post space.

          Step it up….if you dare.

  • socalbeachdude

    U.S. companies spent record amount on buybacks over past 12 months

    The largest U.S. corporations are awash with cash and they are not afraid to spend it—on buying back their own shares.

    S&P 500 SPX, +1.34% companies, determined to keep their share prices on a good footing during the turbulent market conditions at the start of the year, spent $161.4 billion on share buybacks in the first quarter of 2016. It’s the second-largest quarterly expenditure on buybacks after the record spent in the third quarter of 2007.

    2007 was also the last year when corporate managers were as enthusiastic about buybacks as they are now.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-companies-spent-record-amount-on-buybacks-over-past-12-months-2016-06-22?siteid=yhoof2

  • socalbeachdude

    The Federal Reserve couldn’t give the slightest bit of a hoot about the prices in the US stock and commodities markets except to warn as they have done many times over the past 8 years along with the IMF and BIS that they are DRIVEN BY FALSE PERCEPTIONS AND ARE TOO HIGH TO BE SUSTAINABLE. The Federal Reserve FOMC certainly doesn’t make any policy decisions to benefit the stock markets nor are the stock markets considered as data points in any of those decisions and there is certainly no mandate whatsoever for the Federal Reserve to ever even look at prices in the stock or commodities markets for any reason.

    FEDERAL RESERVE FED UP OVER FALSE PERCEPTIONS…

    Fed officials growing wary of market complacency – By Jon Hilsenrath

    Federal Reserve officials, looking out at mostly calm financial markets, are starting to wonder whether tranquility itself is something to worry about.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-officials-growing-wary-of-market-complacency-2014-06-03-15103357?dist=tbeforebell

    The main reason that corporations have borrowed trillions of dollars is for STOCK BUYBACKS and the vast majority of the money coming into the stock markets in the US and globally since 2008 has been from corporations plowing back nearly 100% of their earnings along with vast trillions of borrowed money in order to pump up the prices of their own stocks.

    Bloomberg extensively reviewed this in an excellent article at:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/buybacks-at-46-billion-a-month-dwarf-everything-in-u-s-market

    Stock buybacks are WHAT HAVE CREATED THE BOGUS BUBBLES IN STOCK VALUATIONS and that has nothing to do with the Federal Reserve and as that slows as corporate earnings plummet, the MARKETS ARE HEADED FOR THEIR BIGGEST CRASHES IN THE HISTORY OF STOCK MARKETS.

    • Liar Liar

      laughably false

      • socalbeachdude

        What I stated is 100% correct. Get a clue.

        • Liar Liar

          Wrong

          • socalbeachdude

            In what way?

          • Spatial Memory

            Get real

        • Spatial Memory

          100% incorrect. You are the one should get a clue.

          • socalbeachdude

            Apparently you have a major deficiency when it comes to comprehension.

      • Paul Patriot

        Why?

  • socalbeachdude

    This is why you can expect another global stock market meltdown

    Crash Course: Stocks and other investments are wildly overvalued

    The mispricing of assets across world markets has reached epidemic proportions.

    Stock prices have made strong advances over the past several years, yet market analysts see further gains, arguing that the selloffs of August 2015 and early 2016 represent a healthy correction.

    But this rise in stock values has been underpinned by financial engineering and liquidity — setting the stage for a global financial crisis rivaling 2008 and early 2009.

    The conditions for a crisis are now firmly established: overvaluation of financial assets; significant leverage; persistent low-growth and deflation; excessive risk taking reliant on central banks for liquidity, and the suppression of volatility.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-why-you-can-expect-another-global-stock-market-meltdown-2016-02-25

    • Liar Liar

      Wrong…

      • socalbeachdude

        What is in any way “wrong” about the excellent article in today’s Dow Jones MarketWatch?

        • Paul Patriot

          Don’t you love it when trolls like “liar liar” are incapable of intelligently communicating why they think you are wrong….they simp!ly respond “wrong” ??

          Never ceases to amaze me????

          Thanks for you comments socaldude

          • socalbeachdude

            Paul, you’re quite welcome, and yes!

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    Trump Team prepares dramatic cuts; Ax to govt spending…

    http://thehill.com/policy/finance/314991-trump-team-prepares-dramatic-cuts

  • BuybackKing

    Michael, you forgot to mention the corporate buybacks. The charts of S&P 500 index overlap with amount of share buybacks almost 100%.

    • socalbeachdude

      100% correct and that along with manic speculation is what has propelled stocks to absurdly high stratospheric levels in total disconnect with the underlying fundamentals. Much of those buybacks by corporations of their own stock has been done with DEBT and corporate debt is now around $14 trillion in the US alone.

      • Spatial Memory

        100% correct = 100% false. Again I’d suggest education or familiarizing oneself with financial and accounting ratios on microeconomic level and the transformation from capitalization weighted to float weighted on key indicies.

        Markets have clearly rejected your ludicrous guesswork for the last 11,000+ and 2,000 djia and spx points respectively.

        • socalbeachdude

          Thank you for confirming that the markets are not operating with any regard for ACTUAL FACTS AND FUNDAMENTALS and that has been the case for the past 8 years. Anytime that sort of nonsense and stupidity happens, there is ALWAYS A VERY RUDE SHOCK to return the markets to fundamentals and that is often referred to as a CRASH.

          • Spatial Memory

            You’ve been insisting such ridiculousness for literally the last 11,000+ djia points. Markets have never been more efficient. The issues are much more likely within the nucleus accumbens and extreme aversive salience issues- look homeward. Juxtaposed to the incredible gains of recent years, you guesswork would have decimated any foolish enough to follow.

          • socalbeachdude

            And what I have stated for the past 8 to 10 years has been and is entirely true, accurate, and correct. Fundamentals never lose relevant regardless of how irrationally overvalued and exuberant the markets get, but rather become more important than ever in such situations.

          • Spatial Memory

            If you turn the charts upside down or view them while standing on you head they may confirm your guesswork. Real world price action proved you horrendously incorrect and incapable of adapting.

          • socalbeachdude

            “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau and can only go UP from here…” — Irving Fisher, September 1929

            And then the markets did go UP…

            UP in FLAMES and SMOKE!

          • Spatial Memory

            If youve been bearish since then, you’re the worst market timer ever to walk the earth.

          • socalbeachdude

            US stocks are now the most overpriced since the 2000 crash

            On March 30, 1999, the Wall Street Journal’s front page headline blasted the good news across the world:

            “Dow Industrials Top 10,000”

            The day before, the all-important US stock index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, closed above 10,000 for the first time in history.

            It was a major milestone, and investors cheered.

            A few investors, however, were concerned.

            They felt that US stocks were too expensive, and the entire market was in a dangerous bubble.

            But the Wall Street Journal answered those naysayers, as the headline of the second article on the front page ominously read:

            “If this is a bubble, it sure is hard to pop.”

            US stocks right now are selling at the HIGHEST price-to-sales ratio in at least 15 years, and far higher than it was before the 2008 crash.

            Similarly, the cyclically-adjusted Price/Earnings ratio of the US stock market is now at its highest level since the 2000 crash, and higher than it was before the 2008 crash.

            Looking at other metrics like Enterprise Value to EBITDA (a measure of a company’s core business operating cashflow), US stocks are also at their most expensive levels since the 2000 crash.

            https://www.sovereignman.com/investing/us-stocks-are-now-the-most-overpriced-since-the-2000-crash-20733/

          • Spatial Memory

            2000 crash? Media has you spun. ROFL

          • socalbeachdude

            The 2000 crash was one of the worst crashes in stock market history.

            Worse “than the 1994 ‘Bond Massacre,’” with “sustained double-digit losses on bonds, subpar growth in developed markets, and balance sheet risks for banking systems….”

            The backdrop: after 36 years of bond bull market, the amount of US bonds has ballooned to $47 trillion, up 24% from just ten years ago:

            •US Treasurys ($19.8 trillion),
            •Municipal bonds ($3.8 trillion)
            •Mortgage related bonds ($8.9 trillion)
            •Corporate bonds ($8.6 trillion)
            •Federal Agency bonds ($2 trillion)
            •Money Markets ($2.6 trillion)
            •Asset backed Securities ($1.3 trillion)

            Bonds dwarfs the US stock market capitalization ($27 trillion). Bonds are a global phenomenon with even bigger bubbles elsewhere, particularly in NIRP countries, such as those in Europe, and in Japan. That’s why bonds matter. They’re enormous. And the damage they can do to investors is huge.

            https://srsroccoreport.com/how-bad-will-the-bond-massacre-get/

          • Spatial Memory

            Crash is defined as a 30% price decline. Educate yourself.

          • socalbeachdude

            The Dow (DJIA 30) fell nearly 50% and the NASDAQ fell nearly 80% in the Spring 2000 Crash. Are you really not aware of those straightforward historical facts? Many of the NASDAQ stocks never even ever recovered but went out of business with 100% losses to their shareholders.

          • socalbeachdude

            The Dow (DJIA 30) fell nearly 50% and the NASDAQ fell nearly 80% in the Spring 2000 Crash. Are you really not aware of those straightforward historical facts? Many of the NASDAQ stocks never even ever recovered but went out of business with 100% losses to their shareholders.

  • GSOB

    Restore a culture of life.

    • socalbeachdude

      What on earth does that mean?

  • democratsAREracistIDIOTS

    is it a coincidence this is the 20,000th article claiming gloom and doom, lolololol

  • America 1st

    Debt is not always a bad thing. I know many that have used ‘good debt’ for investments to become rich. Yes, if we borrow and waste, as has been the case, that’s bad debt. But, the correct use of debt as a means of leverage has fueled Trump to billionaire status.

    Give him a minute with debt, and see how he may invest it to turn us around.

    As a nation we could spend every available penny to pay back our debt; and, we’d not only crush our economy in the process, but we’d waste generations trying to get to 0.

    Perhaps it’s wiser to leverage those pennies to increase the national cash flow. Thus, we fire the economic engine back up and use the increased revenue to deal with debt.

    Let Trump do what Trump knows–he’s not a man afraid of using debt in productive ways. Sky-scrapers aren’t built without debt, but when they’re completed, they’re money machines.

    No more bad wasted Obama debt, but good debt may be the solution.

    • socalbeachdude

      There is no such thing as “good” or productive federal government debt.

      • Liar Liar

        You’re Wrong

        • socalbeachdude

          How so?

          • Spatial Memory

            Looks like your charade is collapsing on this blog as well. Whodathunked

          • socalbeachdude

            Huh? I present the ACTUAL FACTS and FUNDAMENTALS. Looks like what is collapsing is your BS nonsense with total disregard for facts and fundamentals.

          • America 1st

            Both of y’all sure seem a lot smarter than I. But, facts are irrelevant without opinions and thoughts about how to apply what is known–opinions should be shared and appreciated–even when countered. I feel like every life I come in contact with has something to teach me–and I appreciate them all.

            Books are filled with facts; if read, knowledge is gained. But, experience breeds wisdom from those facts.

            Look, it’s fun to go back and forth. But, when possible, have an once of respect for one another. You’ll feel better internally–more than just the ‘I showed him’ instant gratification from winning. Eventually, it’ll change your heart and make all your experiences in this world more meaningful. Good luck. And, dare I say, God Bless.

          • Spatial Memory

            Obviously you do not know the definition of fundamentals as applied to economics and finance.

      • America 1st

        That’s a broad statement without much thought.

        • socalbeachdude

          The only kind of “good” and “productive” debt is SELF-LIQUIDATING DEBT that is used to fund INVESTMENT in factories and other businesses than can then EARN MONEY TO PAY OFF THE DEBT. Any other kind of debt is neither good nor productive debt. None of the federal government debt is in any way self-liquidating debt and is all used for PROFLIGATE EXPENDITURES which have NO INVESTMENT RETURN at all.

          • America 1st

            I understand where you’re coming from, but that’s not entirely true. A nation can add a port, or innovative rail, or highways, etc that make logistics more efficient. This would lower American production costs, make us more competitive on the global scale.

            This in turn increases production, income, tax revenues, etc. If the debt costs $1, and we increase tax revenues by more than $1 it’s a net gain–but the increases trigger an upward spiral–a trickle down effect, if you’ll allow the adjusted term. Oversimplification, but sound concept. And, this is just one example.

            It likely allows us to further reduce corporate taxes. And, we’d avoid the sickened economy that would occur from fear of all debt–good or bad. The trick is controlling what debt funds.

            I appreciate your input and your skepticism of government; but, good debt is a tool–maybe the right tool to avoid a collapse!

          • socalbeachdude

            As to anything investment that actually produces anything and qualifies as being “good” and “productive” debt those activities are BEST LEFT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR rather than having any involvement at all with the federal government including port facilities.

          • America 1st

            Listen partner, I agree with you Whole-heartedly on that. But, the fact is, we are not at ground zero. The author is not incorrect when he says that halting government borrowing will have a detrimental impact on our economy–and . . . maybe we should take our medicine . . . who knows.

            What I’m saying is that there is another way. The author assumes that any additional debt will be wasted–as it almost always is. But, it doesn’t have to be.

            We have a very different president that understands how to use debt to create incredible wealth. And, while public debt does differ from private debt, Trump has demonstrated an unquestionable ability to translate private skills into the public realm.

            Look, I’ve always been a limited government guy–but, we have an opportunity here to avoid a major economic collapse while at the same time rendering the US more productive and efficient.

            Understanding the considerable tons of logistics that we move around this country by both rail and truck, there are tremendous opportunities to improve the system. But, neither will trucking companies build new roads, nor rail outfits lay upgraded tracks. This is that unique void where government can have a positive impact.

            Government needs to get the heck out of healthcare, insurance, and welfare (both individual and corporate welfare) and play a role more consistent with where Adam Smith would have recommended.

            I hate bumping heads so much, but wold you seriously just have us go into economic collapse out of fear of government debt without even pondering the potentials of debt used in a positive productive way?

          • socalbeachdude

            Government debt never creates any “wealth” at all but rather creates only INSOLVENCY as it borrows from the future to spend for the present.

          • America 1st

            Well . . . any time some one borrows, they borrow from their future to spend in the present. And, government debt is very different from private debt. But, I wouldn’t say that it doesn’t create wealth.

            We may think of that wealth differently, but it certainly increases and exists.

            If the government builds a new road, I promise you that the land near and around that road became worth much more. If I bought a piece of desert and a new highway comes through–my wealth changes dramatically (thus, that government spending created wealth)–and, the nation’s Net Worth is definitely impacted in the positive direction as a result . . . 1st order land becomes more valuable, 2nd order logistics are more efficient and new businesses arise, 3rd order American productivity increases, GDP increases and the tax base widens–more tax revenues.

            Partner, that all translates into real wealth creation. Now, I understand that you’re against the government creating wealth etc., and that’s understandable–but, when you use the word ‘NEVER’ and state things as if they’re absolute facts, because they don’t support your opinion, you open yourself to reproach.

            It’s probably better to just say that you’re against it–that is understandable–I myself am leery of government debt and out of control spending. I just think that there may be an opportunity with this President to utilize debt in a positive way. And yes, it involves a leap of faith and some serious risk taking, but a lot of Banks earned a lot of money by trusting and loaning money to Trump money–they see him as a risk worth taking–I do too.

            If the debt is used in a meaningful way that give us a competitive advantage in the global market, it’s worth taking.

            If you and I were nations competing against one another and you used debt and I did not–you’d make my head spin. I’d be stuck saving tax dollars to build roads and rail, while you borrowed and built. 20 years down the road, I’d finally be able to start my first road, while you’d have roads, rail, ports, etc.–and the tax base that you’d have from bringing in businesses would pay your debts and more–if you didn’t waste it on social programs that is.

            While you’d have created an environment that attracted business, I’d still be sitting on my thumbs criticizing your use of debt. My country would be failing with little to no tax base, and yours would be thriving. It’d be night and day.

            So, the moral of the story is–good debt–not bad debt. Avoid social programs and the crap that has overloaded the US with debt without creating a means to pay the debt though production, efficiency and increased tax base.

            Instead, we’ve used taxes and regulation to run away the tax base (i.e. businesses), and we’ve used debt to give to the unproductive sectors of this country through social programs that in no way shape or form increase tax revenues. We’ve spend money on liabilities (by creating entitlements), instead of creating assets that will produce for us well into the future.

            Anyhow, I do enjoy our back and forth by the way–it makes me think. Thanks, and I hope that you’re enjoying it as well.

          • socalbeachdude

            If you own land in the desert your property values do not necessarily increase at all if a new federal highway goes through it.

          • Spatial Memory

            More of your ludicrous diatribe. Lol

        • Spatial Memory

          Nor accuracy.

  • Guest

    Hey a question for all of you here. Where is all the FEMA camps Obama was gonna put you in? Where’s all the UN trucks and the black helecoptors coming to put you into hobbit homes? Just wondering.

    • Seen2013

      First, FEMA camps are nationwide established under Rex 84 and other legislation.
      Second, they have been active since the beginning of the UNEX16 drills that followed Jade Helm 15.
      Thirdly, FEMA Corps and Civilian Corps have been active since Jade Helm 15.
      Fourthly, we have violent unrest by deliberate deception on precisely how the US democratic process works.
      Fifthly, they are to be transferred to foreign partners at an unspecified date by Military Manuals and operating procedures.

      In simple terms, the 2008 financial crisis solutions designating the debtors/spenders of international banking institutions were designated as the ‘protectorate’ via Too Big To Fail. When old school measurements estimating deficit to debt spending accounts for over 80% of GDP and dangerously close to the threshold of no return 93% of GDP cupped with Trump’s cabinet and staff picks are pro-public-private merger advocates Bismarkianism political ideology strives to establish a Plutocracy to back establishing Absolute Authority parallel to an Absolute Monarchy strongly suggests the next move is power-structure hierarchy establishment and implementation. Implementation under Bismarkianism is Marital Law mirroring the Wiemar Agreement

      Governmental fiefdoms is the foundation of Oligarchy.
      Public-Private Partnerships are the catalyst to wealth effect and wealth redistribution and the foundation of Kleptocracy.
      Public-Private Mergers are enhanced and centralized catalyst of wealth effect and wealth redistribution aka single payers that is the foundation of Plutocracy.
      Plutocracy rule for extended periods of time becomes an Aristocracy.

      The only reason to reference HW Bush, Clinton, W. Bush, and Obama at this point is that for over 20 years the enhancement of Progressive Government towards its pinnacle as a Plutocracy is effectively complete.

      Note, people who fear Trump’s use of Progressive Government should have been a tip off to precisely why you should fear Progressive Government. Welcome to Progressive Utopia that dates back to around 1492. That’d be as Europe was heading into the Dark Ages, it’s also the beginning of the first globalization movement according to Thomas Friedman.

      • socalbeachdude

        FEMA stands for the Federal Emergency Management Agency and its facilities are all about housing people in the event of major emergencies that may occur in the US.

      • socalbeachdude

        Only about 25% of GDP in the US has anything at all to do with federal government spending.

        • Spatial Memory

          Nonsense

          • socalbeachdude

            What I stated is 100% correct. Total federal government spending in the US is around $4 trillion of our around $18 trillion annual US economy.

          • Spatial Memory

            Absurd myopic nonsense

          • socalbeachdude

            What I stated are the BIG PICTURE facts.

            Federal government spending is right around $4 trillion each year.

            US GDP is right around $18 trillion each year and growing at a rate of about 2%.

            Federal government spending is 19.5% (less than 20%) of US GDP.

            As to the definition of myopic, it means:

            1. Ophthalmology. pertaining to or having myopia; nearsighted.

            2. unable or unwilling to act prudently; shortsighted. Usage: “the government still has a myopic attitude to public spending”

            3. lacking tolerance or understanding; narrow-minded.

            http://www.dictionary.com/browse/myopic

          • Spatial Memory

            You have no clue what you’re typing now. LOL

          • socalbeachdude

            Thank you for describing your utterly clueless assertions so very perfectly. Are you really so dimwitted and ignorant that you do not comprehend what the big picture numbers are on government spending and GDP in the USA? And you don’t even comprehend the dictionary definition of the word “myopic?” Really? Seriously?

          • Spatial Memory

            Yes and it succinctly proved the precise accuracy of my comment versus you foolish assertion of its broad based “big picture” guess.

            socalbeachdude Seen2013
            14 hours ago
            Only about 25% of GDP in the US has anything at all to do with federal government spending

            Spatial Memory socalbeachdude
            14 hours ago
            Absurd myopic nonsense

          • socalbeachdude

            Huh? Is English your 2nd or 3rd or 4th or 5th language?

  • GSOB

    Be kind now

    • Paul Patriot

      I am a little rough snodtblossom, it is a real struggle not to be.

      • SnodtBlossom

        you ain’t so tuf.. you just fantasize about my demise… but I will always be here to taunt you and yours

      • GSOB

        That’s your flesh.

        • Paul Patriot

          You are correct I do need to work on that know. My sanctification process has a way to go. I appreciate your comment..

  • nohomehere

    Gov’s borrow with no intent of ever pay back that is what the real problem is!
    When have you ever heard of a central bank going bankrupt? Like Alan Greenspan always said ” I have this thing called a printing press, but now it is a few strikes on a key board! “

    • socalbeachdude

      The Federal Reserve is NOT part of the federal government and cannot be used by the federal government to just “print” money.

      • nohomehere

        Yes your right,BUT
        The government can deficit spend ,the economy must be maintained and protected by the fed!
        (In his remarks, Greenspan said greater budget discipline was needed, expiration of Congressional rules that enforced
        it.) so you see the fed is affected!

        Greenspan and other economists have warned ,
        persistent deficits and high government debt will push interest rates
        higher, marked upward ratcheting of long-term interest rates,
        Greenspan said…the Fed’s super-low interest-rate target was still “highly accommodative

        • socalbeachdude

          The Federal Reserve has nothing to do with the stock markets in the USA.

          The Federal Reserve only sets 3 interest rates and none of them have anything to do with the US economy where all interest rates are keyed off the yields (interest rates) on US Treasuries. The Federal Reserve is NOT setting interest rates “appropriate for the US economy” but is merely changing OVERNIGHT BANK LOAN RATES which are practically NEVER UTILIZED as the banks are awash in vast excess trillions of dollars and have no need to borrow from each other. The only other rate set by the Federal Reserve is IOER which is Interest On Excess Reserves held by banks inside the Federal Reserve where the banks currently have nearly $2.6 trillion in their excess reserves accounts.

          IT DOESN’T MATTER A HOOT WHAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE DOES WITH ANY OF THE THREE INTEREST RATES THEY SET as all interest rates that matter in the US economy are SET IN THE US TREASURIES MARKETS.

          The BOND MARKETS SET INTEREST RATES IN THE US ECONOMY AND NOT THE FEDERAL RESERVE. The yields (interest rates) in the bond markets have been SOARING EVER SINCE JULY and that is where all interest rates that affect the US economy are keyed off, and NOT the only 3 interest rates set by the Federal Reserve which simply do not matter a hoot in the US economy.

          The only 3 rates that the Federal Reserve is involved with setting are:

          1) Federal Discount Rate – currently 1.25%

          2) Federal Funds Rate (which it influences) – currently in the range of 0.50% to 0.75%

          3) Federal Reserve IOER (Interest On Excess Reserves) – currently 0.75%

          The IOER (Interest On Excess Reserves) interest rate does have an immediate beneficial impact for banks as it is the interest paid to banks on their excess reserves accounts inside the Federal Reserve and those accounts now have more than $2.5+ trillion sitting in them.

          The ONLY applicability of the Federal Funds Rate is INTERBANK BORROWING to clear nightly transaction balances which is now practically NEVER UTILIZED as the banks are awash in trillions of dollars of EXCESS RESERVES and have no need to borrow from each other.

          As to interest rates on savings accounts, BANKS ARE AWASH WITH EXCESS CUSTOMER DEPOSITS AT A TIME WHEN DEMAND FOR BORROWING IS VERY LOW which is why interest on savings rates is so low and that is not likely to change much.

          The only 3 interest rates set by the Federal Reserve have NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH THE INTEREST RATES ON THE US GOVERNMENT DEBT as those yields (interest rates) are all set in the $12.8 trillion a year US Treasuries market and have nothing to do with the Federal Reserve.

  • SnodtBlossom

    I think only JCT and Bill in Wilm block me

    • GSOB

      I would never block you. I don’t follow sports anyhow

      • SnodtBlossom

        It’s tough to be mean to gsob… because he always means well… even if he IS a bible-spouting whacko christian

        • James Staten

          Snottly, Do you believe I’m a whacko Christian also? Some of us must come across as sane!!!!

          • SnodtBlossom

            Yes, yes JS,.. I wouldn’t want you to feel left out.. You’re a bible-spouting whacko too

          • James Staten

            Thanks, Snottly 1st Corinthians 15:1-4

        • GSOB

          Proverbs 3:18

  • sf_jeff

    As long as political policy is to favor inequality, Price to Earnings ratio will continue to go to the moon. This is simple arithmetic.

    • socalbeachdude

      So-called “inequality” and mathematical formulas such as PE ratios have nothing at all to do with each other.

      • sf_jeff

        Please clarify. Why do you put inequality in quotes? Do you not believe that society has become more unequal since Reagan was elected? Do you think that the laws of supply and demand have been repealed when it comes to investment dollars?

        • socalbeachdude

          What kind of “inequality” are you talking about? All Americans are equal as citizens. There has always been a very significant difference in income and assets between the richest and poorest Americans but never before have there been more wealthy Americans than now in 2017.

          Here in Los Angeles County, more than 3 million of us are millionaires and as a state California has more millionaires and billionaires than any other state in the US due to highly elevated assets values in real estate and equities and other things.

          Largely due to illegal immigration and excessive breeding by the poor we also have a third of Californians living today on federal and state welfare payments, but that certainly is not the fault – nor the responsibility – of people who do have substantial means.

          • sf_jeff

            I really am not all that concerned with “social justice”. My main concern is economic growth and our ability to continue doing so instead of crashing and burning. When you say “but that certainly is not the fault – nor the responsibility”, I think that you are focusing on the lazy indigents that don’t have anything and frankly deserve to have nothing. But that’s not who you should be focusing on. What about the next person who has a killer idea and works 80 hours a week to make it a success and it never gets off the ground because the sliver of his customer’s wallets that he is trying to dive into is simply too narrow?

            The economy consists of hundreds of millions of product and service offerings bumping up against hundreds of millions of consumers with dollars in their pockets. Obviously rich will only spend up to their satiation level. If you sum up all the dollars in non-rich hands and the satiation levels of the rich then that is what is available for people creating products to shoot for in sum. If this number goes down then the economy shrinks. It is as simple as that. That obviously involves additional factors of production not being needed, and consumption out of stock prices and home values going away, which can start a vicious chain reaction. These are things you should understand if you are on a blog like this one.

            Obviously dollars that are over the satiation levels for the rich go into investments of some sort. When more dollars go into the stock market, prices of stocks go up. When less dollars go into the supermarket, earnings of stocks go down. As wealth concentrates into the hands of the few, this decreases the pool of dollars available for consumption and increases the pool of dollars available for investment.

            From a morality perspective I am actually slightly conservative. But working through the mechanisms of how the economy really works has made me progressive.

          • socalbeachdude

            The PROFIT MOTIVE is the primary ingredient to “entrepreneurial success” and that is more ALIVE THAN EVER in today’s economy in the United States.

          • Spatial Memory

            More of your ludicrous homespun guesswork.

          • socalbeachdude

            Just the facts.

          • Spatial Memory

            Incentive salience, the key ingredient to entrepreneurial motivation.

            Your “more alive than ever” juxtaposed to the current era of malinvestment and missed R&D cycle is “more incorrect than ever”!!
            Rotflmao

          • socalbeachdude

            What is that nonsensical mumbo jumbo supposed to mean?

          • Spatial Memory

            Motivational Salience.

            Incentive salience. Reward motivation for success Vs Aversive Salience. Risk fear of risk, miscalculated in your case due to lack of knowledge and experience. Yet despite daily confirmation from nearly every economic and market benchmark you continue to foist ludicrous misinformation. Psychological or pathetic?

          • socalbeachdude

            FEAR and GREED

            Those are the only 2 words that ultimately matter and which move the stock markets.

          • Spatial Memory

            Too funny !!!

          • socalbeachdude

            Sa·li·ence

            Definition: The quality of being particularly noticeable or important; prominence.

            As in: What is most salient in the markets today is GREED, IGNORANCE, and STUPIDITY.

          • Spatial Memory

            Motivational Salience
            Nucleus accumbens shell assigns incentive salience (“want” and “desire”) to rewarding stimuli, where reward is the attractive and motivational property of a stimulus that induces appetitive behavior – also known as approach behavior – and consummatory behavior.
            Salience (neuroscience) – Wikipedia

            Educate yourself. LOL Obviously caused you aversive salience – identity crisis with each incremental gain in key market and economic benchmark. The capital markets related comedy has been priceless!!!

          • socalbeachdude

            You really are totally clueless. Pitiful.

          • Spatial Memory

            Learning from expert you.

          • socalbeachdude
          • socalbeachdude

            FEAR v. GREED

            Wall Street’s ‘fear index’ jumps the most in about 5 months as Trump spooks market

            http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-fear-index-jumps-the-most-in-3-months-as-trump-spooks-market-2017-01-30

          • guest

            Untill that profit motive pushes global warming to a point were the human race is exterminated…

          • socalbeachdude

            ABSURD GLOBAL WARMING NONSENSE EXPOSED AS TOTAL HOAX…

            Scandal of fiddled global warming data…
            http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/10916086/The-scandal-of-fiddled-global-warming-data.html

            USA has actually been COOLING since 1930s, the hottest decade on record…
            http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/10916086/The-scandal-of-fiddled-global-warming-data.html

            THE SCIENTIFIC FACTS CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF THE EARTH NOW IS WITHIN ONE-HALF OF ONE DEGREE OF WHAT IT WAS 100 YEARS AGO. That is an immutable and irrefutable fact.

            The Global Warming Hoax Explained for Dummies

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq4Bc2WCsdE

          • sf_jeff

            What good is the profit motive if their are fewer total profits available to be won? It is just like when there are job openings for one in ten applicants, if you are an individual, look at motive. If you are an economy, look instead at creating more jobs. I don’t know why this is such a hard concept.

          • socalbeachdude

            Future profits are essentially UNLIMITED and depend on production of goods and services that consumers want to buy and are willing to pay for. That has nothing to do with your static notion of “jobs” at all as with great new products and services many more jobs will be created in the private sector.

          • sf_jeff

            “want to buy and are willing to pay for.”

            If the total dollars able to pay for goods is less this year than the total dollars that were paid for goods last year, then the total goods bought has to go down. Do you deny this?

          • socalbeachdude

            Well, that certainly ISN’T THE CASE at all, Jeff, as the broad measure of money supply in the US, M2, has continued to expand significantly each year and is now up to $13.279 trillion as you can clearly see from the FRED M2 chart which is current as of 01/16/2017:

            M2 Money Stock

            https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2/

            There is MORE MONEY THAN EVER in the US to purchase goods and services and more than six times as much as currently there was in 1980.

          • sf_jeff

            “Well, that certainly ISN’T THE CASE at all, Jeff, as the broad measure of money supply in the US,”

            What does M2 supply have to do with the money available to buy goods? Goods are bought out of wealth – not out of “cash on hand”.

          • socalbeachdude

            Where on earth do you come up with such bizarre and dead wrong notions regarding “wealth” being used to buy anything in the economy? The only thing that can be used to buy goods and/or services in the economy is US DOLLARS and CREDIT and US DOLLARS is what is accounted for in the M2 broad money stock (supply) figures which include all check and savings accounts in existence in the US.

            As to other types of “wealth” they consist of ASSETS with preposterously high market valuations that MUST BE SOLD FIRST AND CONVERTED INTO DOLLARS in order for any of that “wealth” to be used to purchase anything at all in the US economy. And those types of assets include commodities such as metals which have NO TRANSACTION VALUE of their own at all in an economy.

            Most of the so-called “wealth inequality” that you are harping on about consists of ELEVATED ASSETS comprised of bonds, commodities, equities (stocks) and real estate and much of that “wealth” simply disappears into thin air as MARKET PRICES FALL as it never in fact ever existed in the form of currency.

          • sf_jeff

            “The only thing that can be used to buy goods and/or services in the economy is US DOLLARS and CREDIT and US DOLLARS is what is accounted for in the M2 broad money stock ”

            Alright. Let’s walk through an example. Joe the plumber makes $100k a year, has $100 in his checking account and his checking account lives in a bank that has 10 Million in reserves. How much can Joe spend in the next year and how does this connect to M2?

            “much of that “wealth” simply disappears into thin air as MARKET PRICES FALL as it never in fact ever existed in the form of spendable dollars of any type.”

            Yeah, that’s called financial depression when that happens across an economy.

          • socalbeachdude

            You state ” Let’s walk through an example. Joe the plumber makes $100k a year,
            has $100 in his checking account and his checking account lives in a
            bank that has 10 Million in reserves. How much can Joe spend in the
            next year and how does this connect to M2?”

            First, how does Joe make $100,000 per year but have only $100 in his checking account? If all he has left after his current expenses is $100 in that account then all he can spend is $100 from that account plus whatever (if any) is left on the credit on his credit cards.

            Second, what on earth does his bank having $10,000,000 in reserves have to do with anything? Reserve requirements for most banks are 10% of customer deposits which means that customer deposits at Joe’s bank would be around $100,000,000, but that has no relevance to anything as Joe only has $100 in his checking account. Does Joe have a savings account or other cash and/or cash accounts?

            Third, how would anyone calculate what Joe could spend in the next year based on those numbers? Is Joe creditworthy? It certainly wouldn’t appear he is creditworthy at all based on the assumption he only even has $100 in cash in his checking account which would suggest he is burning up ever dollar he makes in income, so he isn’t likely to be able to borrow even on a fully secured loan such as a vehicle loan from his bank.

            And what on earth would the aggregate M2 total of $13.276 trillion have to do with such a person as Joe whose $100 is a tiny little speck of dust in the big picture M2 number?

            As to the concept of a “financial depression” that is not based on financial market assets but rather is defined as a 10% contraction in a country’s GDP.

          • sf_jeff

            “First, how does Joe make $100,000 per year but have only $100 in his checking account?”

            If you like, assume he has a $50k stock account.

            ” If all he has left after his current expenses is $100 in that account then all he can spend is $100 from that account”

            I mean on Jan 1, right before pay, he has $100. How much can he spend by Dec 31? GDP is measured as a total per year, right?

            ” plus whatever (if any) is left on the credit on his credit cards.””

            This is a wealth delta, right? Can we adjust for total changes to private debt levels after calculating the rest?

            “Does Joe have a savings account or other cash and/or cash accounts?”

            No.

            “And what on earth would the aggregate M2 total of $13.276 trillion have to do with such a person as Joe whose $100 is a tiny little speck of dust in the big picture M2 number?”

            You tell me. I am trying to track consumer spending. Sum up all the Joes across the country, maybe many making 20k and a few making 1M or even 1B per year and you have the consumer face of the economy. That * a multiplier to add in factor of production creation = spending. I hope that we at least agree that when consumer spending drops, business equipment drops at least in proportion.

          • socalbeachdude

            If Joe actually makes $100,000 a year then he’s going to have a lot more than a mere $100 in his checking account unless he has major financial problems. Stocks are just other assets and cannot be used to pay bills and it appears that Joe has no money to pay any of his bills based on the $100 in his checking account.

            It would appear that his expenditures are consuming all of his income and you are confirming he has no cash holdings or savings account, so where is his money being spent? What does he owe in the way of liabilities to other? Vehicles, mortgages, housing expenses, food expenses, medical expenses, taxes, etc. appear to be consuming his entire $100,000 a year of income. IN that case, Joe is actually SPENDING $100,000 a year with absolutely nothing in the way of assets (including liquid cash) to show for his expenditures which makes Joe very uncreditworthy.

            As to GDP, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country during a given time period. There are two measures of GDP: Nominal GDP is the value of production at current market prices, here measured in millions of US Dollars. For further details on measuring GDP, see:

            https://www.measuringworth.com/usgdp/

          • sf_jeff

            Ok. Another Joe might make $100k a year, save $20k a year, have a checking account with $3k in it, and end up with total spending of $80k a year.

            Then we can look at Frank, who earns $200k a year salary and perhaps another 5 million in stock increases and spends $300k a year. I claim that Frank buys exactly what he has appetite to buy – no more, no less.

            If you add this up across the entire economy you get:

            Consumer spending = sum(income of Joes) + sum (change in Joe’s wealth) + sum(appetites of Franks).

            Total spending is a function of consumer spending and the rate of change of consumer spending that goes up and down strictly faster than consumer spending goes up and down.

            If the wealth of the Franks of the world gets too small then we have a problem because great ideas can’t find any money to fund them. If the wealth of the Joes gets too small then we have a problem because great ideas might have plenty of VC money looking for them, but they cannot get profitable because of lack of customers.

  • socalbeachdude

    A Dubious Monetary Backdrop – 01/28/2017 – By Doug Noland

    Now that was one eventful week. President Trump wasted not a minute in making good on a series of campaign promises. A bevy of executive orders moved to rein in Obamacare, withdraw from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiations, tighten immigration, cut regulation and advance the Keystone Pipeline. No earth-shattering surprises there. Perhaps more startling, Team Trump had yet to even unpack before broaching radical notions such as abandoning America’s strong dollar policy, imposing a 20% border tax on imports from Mexico and opening direct confrontation with the media. Friday evening from the WSJ: “Trump’s First Week: Governing Without a Script.”

    At least for this week, I’ll leave it to others to pontificate on the economic merits of Trump policymaking. Dow 20,000 is testament to the market’s ongoing fixation with tax reduction and reform, de-regulation and imminent fiscal stimulus. There were enough disquieting developments this week to dent confidence, though break-out bullish exuberance proved resilient. Unwavering faith in the course of central banking surely underpins the markets, confidence that I expect to be challenged in 2017.

    My focus – one that the world now largely neglects – is on unsound global finance. It’s such an extraordinary backdrop – in all things monetary, in politics, geopolitics and the markets. Yet it is anything but a new experience for speculative markets to disregard latent financial fragilities. And we’ve witnessed in past episodes the capricious nature of market psychology.

    http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2017/01/weekly-commentary-dubious-monetary.html

  • socalbeachdude

    Back Below “Stall Speed”: 2016 Economy Matches Worst Year since Great Recession

    For the year 2016, the growth rate dropped to 1.6%. It was worse even than 2013, when GDP growth tottered along at 1.7%. And it matched the growth rate in 2011. Both 2016 and 2011 were the worst since 2009 when the US was in the middle of the Great Recession.

    In fact, over the past 50 years, anytime the economy grew less than 2% in a year, it was either already in a recession for part of the year, or there’d be a recession the following year. Hence “stall speed” – a speed that is too slow to keep the economy from stalling altogether.

    Borrowing for productive investment is one thing. Borrowing for consumption is another: it boosts GDP but creates a debt overhang with no productive assets that generate income to service that debt in the future; that debt service for prior consumption then acts as a burden on future consumption.

    http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/27/below-stall-speed-2016-u-s-economic-growth-matches-worst-year-since-great-recession/

  • socalbeachdude

    The fact of the matter is that if you had chosen stocks from the only 30 stocks listed on the Dow of over7,000+ stocks on the US exchanges over the past years since 1929 you’d have nearly nothing left today of what you paid for them originally.

    ONLY ONE DOW (DJIA 30) STOCK LEFT ON INDEX SINCE 1928

    The only stock still on the Dow Jones Industrial 30 stock index known as the DJIA 30 or “the Dow” is GE. All of the other stocks have either failed or been acquired and substituted from the 1928 group of stocks on the Dow.

    If not for all of the stock substitutions on the Dow, that index would now be nearly ZERO.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

    • Spatial Memory

      Big difference from your prior guesswork that all but one are no longer in business. Rotflmao

      socalbeachdude J
      2 days ago
      With the same 30 component stocks that were in the DJIA 30 (Dow) back in 1929, the valuation of the Dow would presently be NEARLY ZERO with only one of those component stocks even still in business

      • socalbeachdude

        Huh? The two comments jibe perfectly and are both fully correct.

        • Spatial Memory

          …with only one of those component.. even still in business ?? Fully correct in your world???rotflmao

          • socalbeachdude

            Huh? Do you not understand that stocks are just equity shares in going concerns?

          • Spatial Memory

            GE. All of the other stocks have either failed or been acquired and…..

            Going concerns?

          • socalbeachdude

            Huh?

    • Spatial Memory

      Obviously you don’t know more than media spin. Edison General Electric formed 1892 becomes general electric in 1896, is removed from djia 1901, added back in djia 1907.

      North American Corp. failed ? Rotflmao

      • socalbeachdude

        Obviously you just done comprehend the actual facts despite being presented with the full and complete information!

        • Spatial Memory

          Put down that mirror.

          • socalbeachdude

            Read that Wikipedia article to actually comprehend the composition of the Dow Jones Industrials 30 index.

          • Spatial Memory

            That article causes you to type:
            “GE. All of the other stocks have either failed or been acquired and …”
            ???

          • socalbeachdude

            Huh?

  • socalbeachdude

    Germany Whines: The New Age of Protectionism:

    Trump’s Attack on Germany and the Global Economy

    U.S. President Donald Trump wants to stimulate the American economy, but he has shown no interest in existing trade deals or in the basic rules of economics. It is a dangerous cocktail for German industry.

    It has been quite a scene at Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue in New York recently, with a never-ending parade of stretch limousines and armored S-Class Mercedes pulling up to the building. The heads of Ford, Tesla, Boeing and dozens of other companies have all dropped by for an audience with Donald Trump. The president has consistently gushed about the “great meetings,” but little more than silence could be heard from the other side.

    Behind the scenes, this much has become clear: They didn’t come for negotiations or even to offer advice to the new president. They came to hedge their bets. They are on the defensive, in the hopes that Trump will be less aggressive with those who he knows.

    Senior executives in Germany have been keeping close tabs on the stream of visitors heading for an audience with Trump, full of concern and nervous about what the future might hold. They have refrained from speaking about Trump publicly, but internally, it’s the only thing they are talking about.

    There is significant fear that they too might become Trump targets. Nobody knows what rules are still valid in this new political era, one in which billions in value can be destroyed by a single tweet. An era in which it is no longer clear who is a friend and who is an enemy.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-new-age-of-protectionism-trump-attacks-german-business-model-a-1132050.html

  • mtntrek3

    Five clowns characterized on the graph above. Clowns in various degrees. Is Donald the sixth? Some may say Donald is our savior. He may very well be the elite’s puppet to push the world off into the chaos they want…….. out of chaos comes order. The order that the elite demand. Seriously, Christ is the only Savior that is and will ever be.

    • socalbeachdude

      What utter nonsense. Donald Trump is a fine American working hard to make America great again.

      TRUMP PUTTING A STOP TO ILLEGAL ALIEN INVASION OF USA

      WORLD ORDER SHAKEN…
      PRIEBUS: We Won’t Apologize For Keeping America Safe… ‘Couple of dozen’ still detained…
      TRUMP TO ENLIST LOCAL POLICE IN ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION CRACKDOWN…
      Protesters takeover JFK… Taxi drivers strike…
      Airlines Rushing to Comply… EMIRATES changes pilot, crew rosters…
      Lawyers move in… SOROS FINANCES OPPOSITION…
      Trump expands power of immigration officers… Agents Cheer…
      Iranian Filmmaker Barred From Oscars… Tehran vows retaliation…
      GOOGLE Recalls Overseas Staff… Silicon Sultans Panic…
      Hollywood Meltdown… Journalists Freak…
      Merkel Meddles… London Khan demands Trump state visit cancelled…
      Customs agents ignore judge, enforce travel ban…

      http://nypost.com/2017/01/29/customs-agents-ignore-judge-enforce-trumps-travel-ban-aclu/

      • mtntrek3

        Hoping for better, prepping for the worst as always. I take it all with a grain of salt or two/three nowadays. One has to go back to JFK or even further back to Teddy Roosevelt to find a decent President.

  • Priszilla

    1bn per point?

  • socalbeachdude
  • socalbeachdude

    Perils of the Icarus Trade as the world runs short of dollars>/b>

    Bank of America calls it the Icarus Trade. Global stock markets will surge by another 10pc in a parabolic ‘melt-up’ this quarter, akin to the final stage of the dotcom boom.

    This will be followed by a mirror ‘melt-down’ later in 2017 as the US Federal Reserves squeezes global liquidity, and rising bond yields puncture the Trump reflation trade.

    Michael Hartnett, the bank’s investment strategist, says there will be a perfect moment for the ‘Big Short’ within a few months, but first we must all wait for the speculative fever to pass. The warning signs of a market top are not yet flashing red.

    Markets will conclude by the summer that Trumpian stimulus does not add up to much, and that the reflation narrative is a hoax. “We believe that equities are walking a tightrope, and there is a fairly long way to fall,” said the bank.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/11/perils-icarus-trade-world-runs-short-dollars/

  • socalbeachdude

    The economic risk of ignoring arithmetic – John Hussman

    When we observe the greatest follies of our predecessors, the episodes of speculative madness that come most immediately to mind are the pre-crash bubble peaks of 1929, 2000, and to a lesser extent, 2007. Unfortunately, we are in the midst of yet another episode of equivalent speculative madness, but one that will only be recognized in hindsight, and in the recollections of our children. They too are likely to take pride in a feeling of superior knowledge, forgetting the same lessons, and eventually creating another bubble and collapse of their own. The herd mentality is human nature. As in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009, when the S&P 500 collapsed by 50% and 55% respectively, we’ll likely see that herd mentality expressed on the downside soon enough. That also is human nature.

    The stock market bubble that ended with the September 1929 peak began in August 1921, running just a few days beyond 8 years in duration. The bubble that ended with the March 2000 peak began in October 1990, running fully 9 years and 5 months in duration. Those two episodes represent the longest bull markets in U.S. history. The current half-cycle began at the March 2009 low, and has now run 7 years and 10 months in duration, making it the third-longest advance in history, placing it just 2 months short of the 1929 instance, but a full year and 7 months short of the 2000 instance.

    What’s notable here is that by the time the bubbles that ended in 1929 and 2000 reached a duration similar to the present, they were already experiencing a significant increase in volatility and the frequency of corrections. From a time-perspective, for example, 7 years and 10 months into the bull market that began in October 1990, it was August 1998, about the point that the S&P 500 took a nearly 20% dive. By July 1999, the S&P 500 had eclipsed its mid-1998 high, followed by a correction of over -12% during the next 13 weeks (taking the net gain from mid-1998 to just 5%). The S&P 500 then rallied again into December 1999, followed by a nearly -10% correction over the next 8 weeks. Immediately after the final market high in March 2000, the S&P 500 quickly gave up more than 11% in the following month, wiping out a year of gains, and the bear market had hardly even started.

    Likewise, by the time the bull market from the 1921 low extended into late-1928, the market became much more susceptible to corrections. Following a peak in November 1928, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly -13% in a month. The next peak in February 1929 was followed by a -8% correction over the following two weeks. A fresh high in May 1929 was followed by a -10% correction over the following four weeks. The final high in September 1929 was followed by an initial drop of nearly -15% over the next 6 weeks. Put simply, once the bull market was as mature as the present one has become, further market gains were not smooth. Nor were they ultimately durable.

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2017/01/09/the-economic-risk-of-ignoring-arithmetic

    • Spatial Memory

      Expert blind spot. Another legacy talking head was a few fractals miscalculation on transition from capitalization weighted index to float weighted index in unprecedented easy money and bulge bracket friendly backdrop.

      • socalbeachdude

        John Hussman is 100% correct as to his analysis of the movements in the stock markets over the historical period from 1921 until present.

        • Spatial Memory

          Exactly what you typed 3000 djia points lower rofl

          • socalbeachdude

            John just wrote that analysis this past week.

          • Spatial Memory

            I quit following after he missed by 1000+ spx points. My landscaper provided closer guesswork than either of you.

          • socalbeachdude

            I’m surprised you didn’t rely on the advice from your shoeshine boy just like all those folks did in 1929!!!

          • Spatial Memory

            Could it possibly have been anymore incorrect than your predictions? Rotflmao!

  • Spatial Memory

    Three to six percent pullback sure seems probable. 🙂

    • socalbeachdude

      30% to 60% “pullback” is even more probably in the US stock markets.

      • Spatial Memory

        3-6% industry definition pullback, 10% correction, 30% known as crash here on earth

        • socalbeachdude

          Call it whatsoever you wish. In the immortal and delightfully eloquent words of George W. Bush:

          “This sucker’s goin’ down!”

  • Spatial Memory

    NASDAQ back and fill potential breakaway gap 124.37-124.85 = significant for bears. QQQ 119.32-118.06. IWM 135.25. 🙂

  • JC Teecher

    The S & P 500 Corporate Elites, are against the dissolution of the TPP treaty, which is a totally unfair treaty for America as a whole, and especially the american taxpayer/worker. These greedy CEOs put their profits over America’s welfare in general, and should be identified, and then true patriots should keep a list on them, so we can direct our resources away from their greedy, un-American a$$e$.

    One has to wonder why they were so positive for it, until one realizes that the liberal/NWO/dem, designed trade agreement, was not intended to cause anything good for american workers…especially the middle class.
    More of the left’s designed plan to eliminate the middle class in America.
    Incrementally, the left has done everything possible to bring in the New World Order, via eliminating middle class America.

    On that subject, why do the Femi-Nazi female elite and their dumbed down minions, have such hate for anything or anyone that wants to keep the USA…sovereign? Why do they want more Muslim refugees brought here, when the refugee program brings in 70% 18 to 38 year old males, as opposed to 30 % muslim women and children?
    The muslims have no respect or use for women, except two things; to prepare meals for them, and give them sex upon demand.
    They will kill them if they cry rape, or make any attempt to become more like western women..especially those with a voice.
    The total outcry over the “temporary” stoppage of muslim immigrants, makes no sense, except to understand that everyone with a leftist liberal mindset, has everything about America, upside down. They have become as evil as the people they say have a right to come here.

  • Ephraim Shofar

    When it comes to the Corrupt Global Syndicate, NOTHING is coincidence, EVERY National & International Action is Suspect, and even most of those in the limelight who claim to be opposed are working for the Bastards.

  • landofaaahs

    Remember in the movies when the good guy and bad guy would climb the stairs all the way to the top of a building before the bad guy fell off the top all the way down?

  • socalbeachdude

    Dow companies report worst revenues since 2010, Dow rises to 20,000 (LOL?) – Wolf Street

    Wall Street hocus-pocus has done an awesome job.

    The Dow-20,000 hats have come out of the drawer after an agonizingly long wait that had commenced in early December with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tantalizingly close to the sacred number before the selling started all over again.

    What a ride it has been. From the beginning of 2011 through January 27, 2017, so a little more than six years, the DJIA has soared 73%, from 11,577 to 20,094. Glorious!!

    But when it comes to revenues of the 30 Dow component companies – a reality that is harder to doctor than ex-bad-items adjusted earnings-per-share hyped by Wall Street – the picture turns morose.

    http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/29/dow-component-companies-report-lowest-revenues-since-2010/

  • “V”

    Janet yellen and the gang will continue and I am sure invent new and highly creative accounting tricks to keep the rigged game going. I think Michael is 100% correct. The day will come when the cards all come tumbling down….and we will in that day eat the rich.

  • bogart1

    No, your completely wrong. The Big Business Community is making products and services worth 25% more than last year.

  • john g

    “Is It Just A Coincidence That The Dow Has Hit 20,000 At The Same Time The National Debt Is Reaching $20 Trillion?”

    Yep. Pretty much.

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