Currencies

Shocking New IMF Report: The U.S. Dollar Needs To Be Replaced As The World Reserve Currency And SDRs “Could Constitute An Embryo Of Global Currency”

The IMF is trying to move the world away from the U.S. dollar and towards a global currency once again.  In a new report entitled “Enhancing International Monetary Stability—A Role for the SDR“, the IMF details the “problems” with having the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the globe and the IMF discusses the potential for a larger role for SDRs (Special Drawing Rights).  But the IMF certainly does not view SDRs as the “final solution” to global currency problems.  Rather, the IMF considers SDRs to be a transitional phase between what we have now and a new world currency.  In this newly published report, the IMF makes this point very clearly: “In the even longer run, if there were political willingness to do so, these securities could constitute an embryo of global currency.”  Yes, you read that correctly.  The SDR is supposed to be “an embryo” from which a global currency will one day develop.  So what about the U.S. dollar and other national currencies?  Well, they would just end up fading away.

CNN clearly understands what the IMF is trying to accomplish with this new report.  The following is how CNN’s recent story about the new IMF report begins….

“The International Monetary Fund issued a report Thursday on a possible replacement for the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.”

That is exactly what the IMF intends to do.

They intend to have SDRs replace the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.

So exactly what are SDRs?

Well, “SDR” is short for Special Drawing Rights.  It is a synthetic currency unit that is made up of a basket of currencies.  SDRs have actually been around for many years, but now they are being heavily promoted as an alternative to the dollar.

The following is how Wikipedia defines SDRs….

Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) are international foreign exchange reserve assets. Allocated to nations by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a SDR represents a claim to foreign currencies for which it may be exchanged in times of need.

The SDR is a hybrid.  SDRs are part U.S. dollar, part euro, part yen and part British pound.  In particular, the following is how each SDR currently breaks down….

U.S. Dollar: 41.9%

Euro: 37.4%

Yen: 9.4%

British Pound: 11.3%

Now there are calls for other national currencies to be included in the basket.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has publicly called for the national currencies of Brazil, Russia, India and China to be included in the SDR.

In January, the Obama administration said that it fully supports the eventual inclusion of the yuan in the SDR.

So yes, it looks like we are definitely moving in the direction of the SDR becoming a true global currency.

But is this a good idea?

Globalist organizations such as the IMF say that having a true global currency would facilitate world trade, it would make currency wars less likely, it would stabilize the global economy and it would make the rest of the globe less reliant on what is going on in the United States.

In fact, there is a lot of discussion in international financial circles that oil should be traded in SDRs rather than in U.S. dollars.

In a recent interview, IMF Deputy Managing Director Naoyuki Shinohara even suggested that the IMF may actually consider issuing bonds that are denominated in SDRs.  Apparently the goal would be to promote the use of the new “currency”.

But once again, it is important to remember that the IMF does not see SDRs lasting forever either.  Rather, the IMF considers the SDR to be an “embryo” from which a true global currency could emerge.

An IMF paper entitled “Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability” that was published last year even proposed that a future global currency be called the “Bancor” and that a future global central bank could be put in charge of issuing it….

“A global currency, bancor, issued by a global central bank (see Supplement 1, section V) would be designed as a stable store of value that is not tied exclusively to the conditions of any particular economy. As trade and finance continue to grow rapidly and global integration increases, the importance of this broader perspective is expected to continue growing.”

In fact, at one point the IMF report from last year specifically compares the proposed global central bank to the Federal Reserve….

“The global central bank could serve as a lender of last resort, providing needed systemic liquidity in the event of adverse shocks and more automatically than at present. Such liquidity was provided in the most recent crisis mainly by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which however may not always provide such liquidity.”

Yes, unfortunately this is what the IMF really has in mind for all of us.  A one-world economic system with a one-world currency and a one-world central bank.

Is that what we really need?

A “global Federal Reserve” that dominates the currency and the economy of the entire planet?

At least with the U.S. Federal Reserve there is hope that someday the American people can convince Congress to shut it down.

A “global Federal Reserve” would not answer to anyone.  Individual nations could attempt to pull out, but then they would potentially be isolated from the rest of the globe and potentially cut off from world trade.

That may sound very far-fetched now, but that is the direction we are headed.

And shifting away from the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the world would be disastrous for the U.S. economy.

Right now the fact that the U.S. dollar is the primary reserve currency of the world is one of the only things holding it up.  If you took that support away the U.S. dollar could end up collapsing quite quickly.

Let us hope that the American people wake up and start insisting that we want no part in a global currency.  If we ever allow a world currency to start replacing the U.S. dollar to a large extent, we will lose a great deal of our economic sovereignty.  Not that we haven’t lost most of it already, but at least if we are still using our own national currency there is a greater chance that we can reclaim it.

What the IMF is proposing right now may seem very innocent, but the long-term consequences of going down the road they want to put us on could potentially be absolutely catastrophic.

The American people need to send a very clear message to their representatives in Washington D.C…..

#1 We do not want a one-world economy.

#2 We do not want a one-world currency.

#3 We do not want a one-world central bank.

Which Of The Currencies Of The World Is Going To Crash First?

Last year was an absolutely fascinating time for world currency markets.  The yen, the dollar and the euro all took their turns in the spotlight.  Each experienced wild swings at various times, but the overall theme that we saw was that faith in paper currencies is dying.  The biggest reason for this is the horrific sovereign debt crisis that has swept the globe.  The United States, Japan and a whole host of European nations are all drowning in debt.  The U.S. and Japan are both steamrolling toward insolvency, and several European nations would have already defaulted on their debts if they had not been bailed out.  So which of the major currencies of the world is going to crash first?  Will one (or more) of the big currencies fall before the end of 2011?  Once one major currency collapses will the rest start to fall like dominoes?  The truth is that the world has never seen a sovereign debt crisis of this magnitude in all of human history.  Almost the entire globe is drowning in a sea of red ink and it has brought us right to the brink of financial disaster.

So which of the currencies of the world is going to be the first to come crashing down?  Well, let’s take a quick look at the yen, the euro and the dollar….

The Yen

Japan has the 3rd biggest economy in the world, but they are also deeply swamped in debt.  At well over 200%, the Japanese government has the biggest debt to GDP ratio of all of the major industrialized nations.  In fact, it is estimated that this massive pile of Japanese government debt amounts to approximately 7.5 million yen for every person living in the entire nation of Japan.

So why hasn’t Japan defaulted yet?  Well, a big reason is because Japan has one of the highest personal savings rates on the entire globe, and Japanese citizens have been more than happy to gobble up huge amounts of Japanese government debt at very, very low interest rates.

However, Standard & Poor’s has warned that they may have to slash Japan’s credit rating if the debt gets much bigger, and once confidence starts to falter Japan is going to have to start paying higher interest rates.

At some point Japan is going to be facing a financial meltdown, but for the moment they are hanging in there.

The Euro

Several large European nations would have already defaulted on their debts if they had not been bailed out last year.  Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and Spain are all on very shaky ground right now.  Several of them have already had their credit ratings slashed.

Bond yields all over Europe have been absolutely soaring in recent months.  It is getting really expensive for many of these nations to take on new debt.  Interest rates on 10-year Greek bonds went from 6 percent up to 13 percent in just a single month at one point in 2010.  In fact, even some of the nations that aren’t in the most danger are even feeling the pain.  For example, the cost of insuring French debt hit a new record high on December 20th.

Right now there are all kinds of rumblings that more European nations are going to need bailouts very soon.  Professor Willem Buiter, the chief economist at Citibank, is warning that quite a few EU nations could financially collapse in the next few months if they are not rapidly bailed out….

“The market is not going to wait until March for the EU authorities to get their act together. We could have several sovereign states and banks going under. They are being far too casual.”

So where is all of this bailout money coming from?  Well, a lot of it is coming from Germany and a significant amount of it is actually coming from the United States.

But will wealthy nations such as Germany be willing to pour hundreds of billions of euros into these financial black holes indefinitely?

Are the Germans going to accept a situation where they are permanently bailing out the “weak sisters” all over the rest of the continent?

Already some prominent politicians in Europe are calling for the European “bailout fund” to be doubled in size to about 2 trillion dollars.  Other analysts believe that it is going to take at least 4 or 5 trillion dollars to properly bail out all of the European nations that need it.

In any event, the truth is that the situation is really, really bad.  If at some point the bailouts stop, the defaults are going to begin.

The Dollar

The United States has the biggest national debt of all.  The 14 trillion dollar threshold has just been crossed, and the national debt is now less than 300 billion dollars away from the 14.294 trillion dollar debt ceiling.  If the U.S. Congress does not raise the debt ceiling, the U.S. government will shortly begin to default on its debts.  Of course everyone fully expects that the U.S. Congress will indeed raise the debt ceiling just like they have every time before.

However, U.S. politicians are not going to be able to keep kicking the can down the road forever.  Today the U.S. national debt is more than 14 times larger than it was just 30 years ago.  Everyone around the world is beginning to realize that this debt is not even close to sustainable.  Investors are beginning to become more hesitant about loaning the United States money.  The Federal Reserve has been forced to step in and “buy” more and more of the debt the U.S. government is issuing.

Yields on U.S. Treasuries have been moving up in recent months and this could eventually become a huge problem.

Why?

Well, the sad truth is that the U.S. government has been increasingly using short-term debt.

At this point, the average maturity of U.S. government bonds has fallen to 4.4 years.  The is the lowest figure of all the major industrialized nations. That means that the U.S. government must constantly roll over massive amounts of debt.

As a point of comparison, UK government debt has an average maturity of approximately 13 years.  That obviously gives them a lot more breathing room.

For the United States, the situation could become incredibly dire if interest rates start to go up.

If interest rates on U.S. government debt reach an average of 7 percent, interest payments on the debt would gobble up approximately 45 percent of the tax revenue that the U.S. government takes in each year.

Yes, at that point the game would be over.

But what the United States has going for it that the European nations do not is that the United States can just have the Federal Reserve keep printing currency.  Unfortunately for the nations involved in the euro, they do not have that option.

That is why an increasing number of analysts believe that it will be the euro that will crash and burn first.

But only time will tell.

There are even many that believe that authorities at the highest level actually want the dollar, euro and yen to fail.

Why?

Well, many of the same individuals and groups that brought us NAFTA, the WTO, the IMF, the OECD and the World Bank believe that it would be absolutely wonderful for humanity if we could all have a single, united global currency.  The “chaos” produced by the fall of our existing global currencies could provide the perfect “opportunity” to provide the grand “solution” that they have been hoping to introduce all along.

All over the world top politicians and financiers have been very open about the fact that a world currency is coming.  In fact, men like George Soros are openly talking about these things.  The United Nations has been publicly calling for the U.S. dollar to be replaced with a new global currency for some time now.  Just this week Chinese President Hu Jintao stated that “the current international currency system is the product of the past.”

So will the American people just sit back and accept it when their dollars are replaced with a new global currency?

Well, sadly, when things go badly most Americans seem to be willing to accept just about anything if it will mean that things will go back to “normal”.  When the global economy falls to pieces, and there already lots of signs that we are on the verge of such a collapse, will the American people be willing to say goodbye to the dollar if politicians from both major political parties tell them that the new global currency is the “answer” to our problems?

Hopefully the American people will wake up and will realize that “globalism” is rapidly wiping away almost everything that it means to be an “American”.  Now even many of our children and teens are primarily identifying themselves as “citizens of the world” rather than “citizens of the United States”.

Even if the U.S. dollar does collapse, it is absolutely imperative that we continue to have our own national currency.  The U.S. Constitution does not make any provision for any sort of “world currency”.  If we allow the globalists to push a truly global currency down our throats it will be another giant step towards the creation of a totalitarian one world system.

So what do you think about all of this?  Please feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts below….

Currency Crisis! So What Happens If The Dollar And The Euro Both Collapse?

Some analysts are warning that the U.S. dollar is in danger of collapse because of the exploding U.S. government debt, the horrific U.S. trade deficit and the new round of quantitative easing recently announced by the Federal Reserve.  Other analysts are warning the the euro is in danger of collapse because of the very serious sovereign debt crisis that is affecting nations such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and Spain.  So what happens if the dollar and the euro both collapse?  Well, it would certainly throw the current world financial order into a state of chaos, but what would emerge from the ashes?  Would the nations of the world go back to using dozens of different national currencies or would we see a truly global currency emerge for the very first time?

Up until recently, the idea of a world currency was absolutely unthinkable for most people.  In fact, the notion that all of the major nations around the globe would agree to a single currency still seems far-fetched to most analysts.  However, if enough “chaos” is produced by a concurrent collapse of the U.S. dollar and the euro, would that be enough to get the major powers around the world to agree to a new financial world order?

Let’s hope not, but it is getting hard to deny that we are heading for a major currency crisis, and if the U.S. dollar and/or the euro collapse, the world will certainly never be the same afterwards.

In case you missed it, China and Russia made a very big announcement the other day.

They told the world that instead of using the U.S. dollar to trade with each other, they will now be using their own national currencies.

Most Americans don’t realize it, but that is a very, very big deal.

The fact that the U.S. dollar has been the primary reserve currency of the world for decades has given the United States a tremendous amount of economic power.

But now nations are beginning to lose confidence in the U.S. dollar and they are slowly starting to move away from it.

When the Federal Reserve announced a new round of quantitative easing in early November, it created a huge backlash from other nations.  For decades, many other countries have been heavily investing in dollar-denominated assets, and now they are quite upset that those assets are going to be devalued.

Chinese Finance Vice Minister Zhu Guangyao used very strong language in denouncing the Fed’s new quantitative easing scheme earlier this month….

“As a major reserve currency issuer, for the United States to launch a second round of quantitative easing at this time, we feel that it did not recognize its responsibility to stabilize global markets and did not think about the impact of excessive liquidity on emerging markets.”

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble was even more blunt.  He has called current Federal Reserve policy “clueless”, and he says that he is absolutely disgusted with the Federal Reserve at this point….

“They have already pumped an endless amount of money into the economy via taking on extremely high public debt and through a Fed policy that has already pumped a lot of money into the economy. The results are horrendous.”

So where is all of this going?

If the Federal Reserve keeps flooding the system with new dollars, the rest of the world could eventually totally reject the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries.

If that day ever arrives, the results would be beyond catastrophic as the following short video from the National Inflation Association demonstrates….

But it is not just the U.S. dollar that is in trouble.

The euro is in danger as well.

Just consider the financial problems that some major European nations are experiencing right now….

*Standard & Poor’s has slashed Ireland’s credit rating two notches to “A”, and is warning that there could be further downgrades.  The Irish budget deficit is projected to reach 32 percent of national output this year.  Ireland’s finances are being called “just one big pyramid scheme”, and they recently accepted a huge European bailout.  Unfortunately for Ireland, this bailout comes with strings.  The Irish government is now being forced to implement an austerity program that is being referred to as “draconian”.

*Analysts are projecting that Portugal is going to need a bailout of at least 50 billion euros.  The government of Portugal has implemented some harsh austerity measures in an attempt to get the red ink under control, and the people are not pleased.  On Wednesday, a massive national strike shut down travel and basic services across the country.

*Things are so bleak in Portugal right now that Foreign Affairs Minister Luis Amado recently stated that his nation “faces a scenario of exit from the euro zone” if a solution is not found for this financial crisis.

*Greece was the first nation to need a European bailout, and now there are rumors that they may need even more assistance.  The statistics agency for the EU, Eurostat, recently revealed that Greece’s budget deficit for 2009 was actually 15.4% of GDP rather than 13.6% of GDP as originally thought.  The Greek national debt is now well over 120 percent of GDP.  The financial problems in Greece never seem to stop.

*Belgium’s debt has reached 100 percent of annual national income, and the cost of insuring that country’s debt has now hit record levels.

*Even Spain is in trouble.  Rates on Spanish 10-year government bonds have risen to frightening heights in recent days, and the official unemployment rate in Spain is hovering around 20 percent.

*In a recent article entitled “A Spanish Bailout Would Test Europe’s Strained Finances“, the New York Times quoted Jordi Galí, the director of the Center for Research in International Economics at Barcelona’s Pompeu Fabra University as saying that rumors that Spain is in financial trouble could end up making it a self-fulfilling prophecy….

“If investors expect Spain to have trouble refinancing its debt, now or somewhere down the road, then Spain will have trouble,” he added. “This is only aggravated by the fact that the reluctance of investors to purchase the country’s public debt leads to an increase in the interest rate it has to pay and thus in the budget deficit and the amount of debt it has to issue.”

So could this sovereign debt crisis actually cause the euro to collapse?

Well, it depends who you ask.

European Financial Stability Fund chief Klaus Regling says that there is “zero” chance that the euro will collapse….

“There is zero danger. It’s inconceivable that the euro would collapse.”

Other European leaders are not so sure about that.

EU President Herman Van Rompuy recently warned that if some of the weaker countries in Europe are forced to abandon the euro it will likely cause a total meltdown of the European Union….

“We’re in a survival crisis. We all have to work together in order to survive with the euro zone, because if we don’t survive with the euro zone we will not survive with the European Union.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is also warning that a failure of the euro could bring down the entire European Union….

“If the euro fails, then Europe fails.”

But is this likely to happen any time soon?

No, probably not, but in 2010 top European officials are actually acknowledging the possibility, and that shows just how serious things have gotten.

So if the U.S. dollar and the euro do collapse, what would happen?

Well, already many world leaders are openly speaking of the need for a true global currency.

After all, they argue, there won’t be any “currency wars” if we are all using the same currency.

In fact, the Institute of International Finance, an organization that represents 420 of the biggest banks and financial institutions on the globe, recently declared that the time has come to adopt a one world currency.

In fact, as I wrote in an article entitled “Bancor: The Name Of The Global Currency That A Shocking IMF Report Is Proposing“, a recent IMF policy paper actually proposed a name for the “global currency” that they believe could be coming….

A paper entitled “Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability” by the Strategy, Policy and Review Department of the IMF recommends that the world adopt a global currency called the “Bancor” and that a global central bank be established to administer that currency. The report is dated April 13, 2010 and a full copy can be read here. Unfortunately this is not hype and it is not a rumor. This is a very serious proposal in an official document from one of the mega-powerful institutions that is actually running the world economy. Anyone who follows the IMF knows that what the IMF wants, the IMF usually gets. So could a global currency known as the “Bancor” be on the horizon? That is now a legitimate question.

So will any of this ever come to fruition?

Well, it would likely take one whale of a crisis to get the countries of the world to agree to such a thing.

However, we do live at a time when the world financial system seems to be perpetually on the edge of chaos.  If at some point the U.S. dollar and the euro totally fall apart perhaps we will see a “new order” arise out of all of that chaos.

But let’s hope not.  Once we give any organization the power to issue a global currency the odds of us ever getting our economic sovereignty back will be greatly reduced.  The internationalists are going to use any crisis as an opportunity to argue for greater centralization of the world financial system, and it will be very important for the American people not to fall for those arguments.

Hopefully the U.S. dollar and the euro can remain stable currencies for at least a little while longer.  Because once they collapse things will never, ever be the same again.

It Is A Race To The Bottom For Global Currencies And The Winner Will Be Gold

In 2010, any nation that has a weak currency has a very significant competitive advantage in global trade.  A weak currency means that the products and services produced by that nation will be less expensive for other nations.  Therefore other nations will buy more of those products and services.  When exports go up, employment goes up and more wealth flows into the country.  Alternatively, when the value of a national currency declines, exports do down, unemployment increases and less wealth flows into the country.  Therefore, dozens of exporting nations around the globe have become increasingly determined to keep their national currencies very weak in an attempt to maintain a competitive advantage in the global marketplace.  Essentially what we have is a race to the bottom among global currencies.  Whenever any nation wants to gain a little bit more of an edge in global trade they push the value of their currency down just a little bit more.  So who is the winner in all of this?  Well, that is easy.  Gold, silver and other precious metals will continue to be the winners as fiat currencies all over the globe continue to decline in value. 

Quite a few nations have been openly manipulating their national currencies for many years, but now currency issues are starting to make front page news.  Things are starting to get quite tense out there.  Major importing nations are starting to resent the fact that they have been burned by all of this currency manipulation and major exporting nations are absolutely determined not to lose the economic gains that they have achieved as a result of their currency manipulation.   

In recent months, nation after nation has been taking steps to weaken their national currencies.  Every time another currency gets devalued the hostility in the global marketplace just seems to grow.  In fact, Brazil’s finance minister recently was very honest about the fact that the nations of the world are now engaged in a very open “international currency war”….

“We’re in the midst of an international currency war, a general weakening of currency.”

So where does all of this end?

Well, to some the answer is to adopt a global currency.  But let us hope that never, ever happens because it would be the end of economic sovereignty for every nation on the face of the earth.

To others, the answer is for the nations that are being taken advantage of to stand up and to declare that they are not going to take it anymore.

Perhaps the most glaring example of one nation taking example of another is what China is doing to the United States.

In my recent article entitled “Currency War” I described the effect that currency manipulation by the Chinese government is having on trade between the U.S. and China….

For years, China has kept the value of their currency artificially low.  Even though China has made a few small moves toward a more free-floating currency policy, at this point China’s currency is still pretty much pegged to the U.S. dollar.  It is estimated that the Chinese government is keeping China’s currency at a value about 40 percent lower than what it should be.  This is essentially a de facto subsidy to China’s exporters.

By keeping their currency essentially pegged to the U.S. dollar at such a low value, China is able to flood the U.S. market with incredibly cheap goods and services.  But this has created an absolutely massive trade imbalance.  Today, the United States spends $3.90 on Chinese goods for every $1.00 that the Chinese spend on American goods.  Jobs and wealth are flowing out of the United States and into China at a pace that is almost unimaginable.

The Chinese know that if they let the value of their currency rise substantially it would have a devastating impact on their economy.  Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was recently quoted in The Telegraph as saying the following about what would happen if the value of Chinese currency was to rise substantially….

“I can’t imagine how many Chinese factories will go bankrupt, how many Chinese workers will lose their jobs.”

So instead American factories get to go bankrupt and millions of American workers get to lose their jobs.

Is that fair?

Meanwhile, other nations around the world are busy debasing their currencies.  For example, Japan recently made a 12 billion dollar move in world currency markets to debase the value of the yen.

Earlier this year, the Swiss National Bank experienced losses equivalent to about 15 billion dollars trying to stop the rapid rise of the Swiss franc.

It truly is a race to the bottom.

So who benefits?

Gold, silver and other precious metals of course.

Gold recently topped $1,300 an ounce. 

Silver has been absolutely soaring.

Exporting nations such as China and India have been gobbling up gold and other precious metals every time there is a little bit of a dip.  They are tired of piling up endless amounts of U.S. dollars and they are seeking to diversify into something more solid.

The trend toward gold and precious metals is so hot that one German firm that installs gold vending machines now has plans to introduce them into the United States later this year.

It seems like everyone wants gold right now.

Not that gold is any more valuable than it ever has been.

It is just that it is not going down in value like all of the fiat paper currencies around the world are.

This is not a good time to have faith in paper currencies – particularly the U.S. dollar.

Already the dollar has been slipping substantially and the Federal Reserve has not really even cranked up the next round of quantitative easing yet.

One of the easiest things to do when there are economic problems in a nation is to pump more paper money into the economy.  More paper money gives people something to spend, it spurs economic activity, it helps exports (as described above), and it helps put people back to work. 

Of course it also destroys the value of the currency, but we will get to that in a minute.

With millions upon millions of Americans out of work, and with millions of homes being foreclosed, and with poverty statistics soaring into uncharted territory, it is very tempting for our politicians in Washington to borrow even more paper money and to pump it into the economy in an attempt to get things going again.  But right now an election is coming up and the Tea Party has raised such a ruckus about government debt that there isn’t much appetite for more “stimulus packages” right now.

Of course the truth is that “stimulus packages” never solve any of our long-term problems anyway.  The reality is that they just give our economy a short-term “high” and make our long-term debt problems even worse.

Not that the U.S. government is not quietly up to some monkey business.  On Friday, federal regulators announced a 30 billion dollar bailout of the nation’s wholesale credit union system.

Another bailout?

Just what we need, eh?

But in general, the U.S. government is not doing a whole lot more reckless spending right now.

However, the Federal Reserve can inject more paper money into the economy without the help of Congress.  Under the guise of “quantitative easing”, the Federal Reserve makes up money out of thin air and pumps it into the economy by buying up U.S. Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities or anything else that they feel like buying.

So is this going to happen again any time soon?

There are all kinds of whispers on Wall Street that this is exactly what the Fed is going to do and that it is going to be massive.

And quantitative easing would probably stimulate the U.S. economy in the short-term.

However, it would also seriously damage the value of the U.S. dollar.

You see, the truth is that when more dollars are introduced into the system, the value of each existing dollar goes down.

It is called inflation, and it is a hidden tax on all of us. 

Think of it this way.  If you put five dollars away today and you anticipate that you will be able to buy two loaves of bread with it three years from now, you will be greatly disappointed if when that day arrives a loaf of bread now costs five dollars and you can only purchase one loaf.

When the purchasing power of the dollar declines, it is a tax on every single dollar in every single wallet and bank account in the United States.

Since 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 96 percent of its value.  Unfortunately, as ever increasing mountains of paper money continue to be required to keep our financial system solvent, the rate of decline of the value of the dollar is only going to increase in the years ahead.

So when you are watching the news and you hear that the Federal Reserve has announced some more “quantitative easing”, you might want to watch your wallet because you are about to be taxed.  Your dollars will still be there – they just won’t go as far as they used to.

But in the twisted global economic system that our politicians have created, if the U.S. does not devalue the dollar we will lose factories, jobs and wealth at an even faster pace. 

How sick is that?

So do not put your trust in the U.S. dollar.  In the end, it will fail.

So what do all of you think?  Feel free to leave a comment with your opinion (sane of otherwise) below….

Currency War

Are you ready for a currency war?  Well, buckle up, because things are about to get interesting.  This week Japan fired what is perhaps the opening salvo in a new round of currency wars by publicly intervening in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 2004.  Japan’s bold 12 billion dollar move to push down the value of the yen made headlines all over the world.  Japan’s economy is highly dependent on exports and the Japanese government was becoming increasingly alarmed by the recent surge in the value of the yen.  A stronger yen makes Japanese exports more expensive for other nations and thus would harm Japanese industry.  But Japan is not the only nation that is ready to go to battle over currency rates.  The governments of the U.S. and China continue to exchange increasingly heated rhetoric regarding currency policy.  In Europe, there is growing sentiment that the euro needs to be devalued in order to help European exports become more competitive.  In addition, exporters all over the world are already loudly complaining about the possibility that the Federal Reserve is about to unleash another round of quantitative easing.  Virtually all major exporting nations want the value of the U.S. dollar to remain high so that they can keep flooding us with lots of cheap goods.  The sad reality is that our current system of globalized trade rewards exporting nations that have weak currencies, and many nations have now shown that they are willing to take the gloves off to make certain that their national currencies do not appreciate in value by too much.

Some nations have been involved in open currency manipulation for some time now.  For example, Singapore is well known for intervening in the foreign exchange market in order to benefit exporters.  Also, the Swiss National Bank experienced losses equivalent to about 15 billion dollars trying to stop the rapid rise of the Swiss franc earlier this year.

But as we race toward the end of 2010, currency manipulation is becoming a major issue on the world stage.

Rumors that the Federal Reserve is considering a substantial new round of quantitative easing is already causing many major exporting nations around the world to howl in outrage. 

Why?

Well, quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve could put substantial downward pressure on the value of the dollar and that would make exports significantly more expensive in the United States.  The reality is that even a relatively small change in the value of the U.S. dollar can have a major impact on exporters.

But what could really set off a massive currency war is the ongoing dispute between the U.S. and China.

For years, China has kept the value of their currency artificially low.  Even though China has made a few small moves toward a more free-floating currency policy, at this point China’s currency is still pretty much pegged to the U.S. dollar.  It is estimated that the Chinese government is keeping China’s currency at a value about 40 percent lower than what it should be.  This is essentially a de facto subsidy to China’s exporters.

This has enabled China to flood the United States with cheap goods and it is killing entire industries in the United States.  Americans have loved rushing out to Wal-Mart to get super low prices on all kinds of stuff, but in the process we have slowly but surely been shipping our manufacturing base and our standard of living over to China.

In recent years both the Bush administration and the Obama administration have been whining about this currency manipulation by China, but both administrations have stopped short of taking any real action.

But are there now signs that the Obama administration is going to get serious and start a currency war? 

Well, last week Barack Obama did send the head of his national council of economic advisers, Larry Summers, to Beijing to discuss currency issues.

But what can we do other than whine at this point?

Are we willing to start a trade war?

Considering the fact that China holds nearly a trillion dollars worth of U.S. Treasuries, that probably would not go so well for us.

Even though China’s currency manipulation is absolutely raping the U.S. economy, China has so much leverage over us at this point that it isn’t even funny.

For example, China has almost a complete and total monopoly on rare earth elements.  If China totally cut off the supply of rare earth elements, we would have no hybrid car batteries, flat screen televisions, cell phones or iPods.  Not only that, but rare earth elements are used by the U.S. military in radar systems, missile-guidance systems, satellites and aircraft electronics.

But something has to be done.  Essentially we are caught between a rock and a hard place.

Today, the United States spends approximately $3.90 on Chinese goods for every $1 that the Chinese spend on goods from the United States. 

Last month, the monthly trade deficit with China was approximately 26 billion dollars.  For the year, the trade deficit with China will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 300 billion dollars or so.  The transfer of wealth to China that represents is absolutely mind blowing.

The U.S. economy is getting poorer and the Chinese economy is getting richer each and every month.

We are in decline and China is on the rise.  In fact, one prominent economist is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040.

This would not have ever happened if we had not put up with China’s open and blatant currency manipulation all this time.

But now they have us over a barrel and standing up to China would be incredibly painful for the U.S. economy in the short-term.

So will we actually see a currency war break out soon?

Well, it seems almost a certainly that countries throughout the world will continue to manipulate their currencies in order to gain a competitive advantage, but if you are waiting for the Obama administration to truly stand up to China you are probably going to be waiting for a very, very long time.

Has Gold Become A New Reserve Currency?

For decades, the U.S. dollar has been the reserve currency of the world.  This has given the United States an extraordinary amount of economic power, but as the U.S. economy has started to come apart over the past decade, other nations have increasingly sought to move away from the U.S. dollar and find other alternatives.  For a long time it was thought that the Euro would become the next great reserve currency of the world.  However, the recent Greek debt crisis, along with massive financial instability in nations such as Portugal, Spain and Italy, has caused investors to rapidly lose confidence in the Euro.  In fact there are even some whispers that the Euro may not even survive the sovereign debt crisis as it sweeps across Europe.  With both the U.S. dollar and the Euro looking shaky, investors have been searching somewhere safe to put their money.  Increasingly, they have been turning to gold.  So has gold now become a new reserve currency?  Will all of this new demand drive the price of gold into unprecedented territory?

Well, the truth is that as long as paper currencies around the world continue to show instability, gold will continue to be a preferred choice.  Nations all over the world are looking for ways to diversify their very large foreign exchange reserves.  For example, China now has approximately $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, and has been wanting to reduce its position in U.S. dollars for quite some time now.

But where should they put their money?

The Euro is coming apart like a 20 dollar suit.  There is a very real fear that Greece is only the first domino to fall and that soon nations like Italy, Spain and Portugal will be begging the IMF for assistance as the sovereign debt crisis sweeps across Europe.

Well, what about the British pound?  The truth is that the pound is not very appealing right now because the U.K. is facing a massive government debt crisis as well.  In fact, Bank of England governor Mervyn King recently warned that public anger over the “austerity measures” that soon must be implemented in the U.K. will be so intense that whatever party wins this election will be out of power for a generation.

Well, how about the Japanese yen?  Ironically, there has been a move towards the Japanese yen in recent days, but the truth is that the Japanese debt situation is one of the worst in the world.  Japan’s gross public debt has reached 201 percent of GDP and  Japan’s battle with deflation dragged into its 13th straight month in March.  No, the yen is not safe at all.

So does that bring us back to the U.S. dollar?  No.  There is a reason why nations all over the world have been wanting to get out of the U.S. dollar.  The United States has piled up the biggest mountain of debt in the history of the world, and even official U.S. government reports admit that the U.S. government is on a financial path that is not even close to sustainable.  The U.S. economy is caught in a death spiral, and that makes the U.S. dollar very unsafe.

So, what is safe at this point?

Well, gold is.

The price of gold rose to $1,210 an ounce on Friday.  The terms “flight to quality” and “safe haven” are increasingly being used for the precious metal as investors flee all of the major global paper currencies.

Just consider some of the recent comments about gold by financial experts that have shown up in the news….

Stephen Platt, a commodity analyst at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago:

“The sovereign-debt panic is spreading and forcing a flight to quality into gold.”

Citigroup analyst David Thurtell:

“Gold is now enjoying safe haven status, partly because bonds, particularly peripheral euro zone government and bank paper, is no longer a safe haven.”

Dennis Gartman, an economist and the editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter:

“There is a clear flight into quality to the gold market as frightened capital seeks a haven of any sort while confusion reigns.”

So will this move towards gold continue?

Sure.

Although anyone who follows the gold market knows that big financial institutions regularly work to suppress the price of gold.  In fact, one industry insider recently decided to be a whistleblower and came forward with “smoking gun” evidence of price manipulation in the precious metals markets, but the CFTC didn’t do a thing about it.

Fortunately, the overwhelming demand for gold is now pushing the price up despite efforts to suppress it.

In addition, once it becomes apparent that most of the “gold” that is traded in the world is not backed by the actual metal itself, the price of gold will go even higher.

For years, almost everyone has assumed that the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the world’s largest gold market, had actual gold to back up the massive “gold deposits” at the major LBMA banks.

But that is just not the case.

People are now starting to realize that there is very little actual gold in the LBMA system.

When most people think they are buying “gold”, what they are actually buying are just pieces of paper that say they own gold.

Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management in Switzerland recently elaborated on this point.  He says that “a lot of people who have studied it closely are convinced that there is a major shortage in physical gold at LBMA. LBMA trades around 700 tons net of gold daily. That is 25% of world annual production and around $6 trillion annually. To back that amount of trading on a 100% reserve ratio basis, it would need several year’s production of physical gold, which they definitively haven’t got.”

So what is going to happen when investors start demanding physical delivery of the gold that they purchase?

It is going to create a huge mess.

Needless to say, if you are investing in gold make sure that you take physical delivery of the gold.

As the paper currenices all over the globe continue to unravel (as all debt-based paper currencies always do), all precious metals, including gold, will be increasingly in demand.

In fact, the idea of gold being a “reserve currency” is not anything new.

Gold has been a “reserve currency” for thousands of years, and those who understand history know that it will always remain one.

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