Trade

Here Are 15 Numbers That Show How The Global Economy Is Performing, And All Of Them Are Bad

Global economic activity has already been slowing down dramatically, and the U.S. trade war with China is just going to make things worse.  In so many ways, what we are witnessing in 2019 is quite reminiscent of what we witnessed as the last recession was beginning.  Global exports are absolutely plummeting, auto sales are way down all over the globe, debt delinquencies are way up, and retailers are closing stores at a record pace.  Even if the U.S. and China were getting along, things would be rough for the global economy in the months ahead, but a full-blown trade war between the two largest economies on the entire planet has the potential to be absolutely disastrous.  We are truly in uncharted waters, and many believe that events are going to start accelerating very rapidly now.

Even though I write about this stuff on a daily basis, I have been surprised by how poor the global economic numbers have been lately.

And remember, earlier this month the global media were convinced that the U.S. and China were about to finalize a trade deal.  Now that negotiations have completely broken down, we should expect that these numbers will soon get even worse.

The following are 15 numbers that show how the global economy is currently performing…

#1 Global exports are absolutely crashing and have now fallen to the lowest level since 2009.

#2 U.S. auto dealers are dealing with a backlog of 4.2 million unsold vehicles.

#3 Auto sales in Europe have fallen for seven months in a row.

#4 Chinese auto sales fell a whopping 16.6 percent in the month of April.

#5 Overall, Chinese auto sales have now fallen for 11 months in a row.  That is a new all-time record.

#6 U.S. auto loan delinquencies have reached the highest level since the last recession.

#7 U.S. credit card delinquencies have hit the highest level in eight years.

#8 In April, U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly declined 0.5 percent.

#9 Thanks to the trade war, the price of soybeans just dropped to the lowest level since 2008.

#10 Party City just announced that it will be closing 45 stores.

#11 Fred’s just announced that they will be closing 104 more stores.

#12 In April, U.S. retail sales declined for the second time in three months.

#13 According to the Atlanta Fed’s latest forecast, U.S. GDP growth is expected to fall to just 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019.

#14 According to a new study just released by the Urban Institute, 40 percent of all Americans “sometimes struggle to afford housing, utilities, food or health care”.

#15 Overall, 59 percent of all Americans are currently living paycheck to paycheck according to a survey that was just conducted by Charles Schwab.

Leaders from both the U.S. and China are trying to act tough and say the right things, but everyone knows that this trade war is going to hurt both countries.

Economic numbers from both nations have been troubling lately, and one expert that was just interviewed by CNBC says that “it could get a lot worse”…

Consumer and industrial activity in both the U.S. and China slowed in April, even before the world’s two biggest economies entered the latest phase of an escalating trade war that could take a bite out of global growth.

“The real message today is that both the economic data from the U.S. and China have disappointed. They’re like two boys in the sandbox that are spitting on each other, and it could get a lot worse,” said Marc Chandler, global market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

In the short-term, it would greatly help if the U.S. and China could find a way to agree to a trade deal.

Unfortunately, the events of the past 48 hours have made that a lot less likely.

As I discussed yesterday, President Trump essentially took a sledgehammer to Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei.  When the Commerce Department put Huawei on the “Entity List”, it essentially banned the company from buying much needed parts and components from U.S. firms.  Some have described this as “the nuclear option”, and I think that description is quite accurate.  In the end, this move is going to be absolutely devastating for Huawei.

Of course the Chinese are absolutely furious about this.  Huawei is viewed with great national pride in China, and this move is considered to be a direct insult to Chinese national honor.  Most Americans are not paying too much attention to the details of the trade war, but in China this is a really big deal and people are extremely angry.  In fact, there has apparently been a run on “Donald Trump toilet brushes” in China in recent days because the Chinese are so angry.

Following my recent article about Huawei, a number of readers complained that I was being too soft on China.  Of course that is not true at all.  Long before Donald Trump ran for president, I was writing about how China was lying, cheating, stealing our technology and robbing us blind.  I was literally begging for our politicians to stand up and do something, and I was thrilled when Trump started talking tough about China because I knew that he really understood these issues.

But I also want everyone to understand that trying to decouple from the Chinese economy would be extremely painful even in the most optimistic scenario.  Our two economies have become extremely integrated, and we have become very dependent on China in many different ways.  They buy our soybeans, they provide us with rare earth elements, and they own more than a trillion dollars of our debt.  Looking at it from the Chinese perspective, they have countless ways that they can hurt us, and the angrier we make them the more likely it will be that they will lash out at us.

When negotiating with China, you need to be tough but you also need a lot of finesse.  Taking a baseball bat and slamming it into their kneecaps is not going to work.

If we destroy our relationship with China, that is going to result in us going down a very dark path.  Yes, China is an evil empire that has no respect for human rights at all.  There is no freedom of speech in China, over the past year they have been shutting down lots of churches and burning lots of Bibles, and they have been systematically throwing members of other religious minorities into concentration camps.

So I don’t have any sympathy for the communist Chinese government at all.  I just want all of you to understand that they are a very dangerous adversary, and a protracted trade war could be truly disastrous for the entire global economy.

Get Prepared NowAbout the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally-syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other prominent websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please feel free to do so. The more people that see this information the better, and we need to wake more people up while there is still time.

Investors May Be Laughing At China’s “People’s War” Now, But Here Is Why They Won’t Be Laughing For Long…

Wall Street is still treating this crisis as a temporary trade dispute, but the Chinese see things completely differently.  At this point, the narrative in China is that the U.S. has deeply insulted their national honor, and every angry statement from U.S. officials is just digging the knife in a little bit deeper.  The Chinese began their retaliation to Trump’s new tariffs with some new tariffs of their own, but they won’t be stopping there.  As I stated yesterday, China literally has hundreds of different ways that they can hurt us, and the longer this crisis goes the more likely it is that they will utilize all of those weapons.

And we got a hint of what might be coming on Tuesday.  An editorial published in government-run media outlets boldly proclaimed that the conflict between the United States and China was now a “people’s war”…

In a series of opinion pieces and on-air editorials, the country’s government-controlled media used strong and nationalistic language to reassure a shaky domestic audience that China’s economy can weather the higher tariffs imposed last Friday by US President Donald Trump.

One strongly worded editorial published by both the Xinhua News Agency and the People’s Daily, the Communist Party mouthpiece, said that while the US was fighting for “greed and arrogance,” China fought to defend “its legitimate rights and interests.”

“The trade war in the United States is the creation of one person and his administration who have swept along the entire population of the country. Whereas the entire country and all the people of China are being threatened. For us, this is a real ‘people’s war,'” the editorial said.

And similar sentiments were expressed on state-owned television during a prime time broadcast…

During a prime time broadcast on Monday, CNN reported that the state broadcaster CCTV also aired a statement saying that China would “fight for a new world.”

“As President Xi Jinping pointed out, the Chinese economy is a sea, not a small pond,” anchor Kang Hui said on his 7 p.m. news show. “A rainstorm can destroy a small pond, but it cannot harm the sea. After numerous storms, the sea is still there.” Hui concluded echoing a popular refrain, that “China…doesn’t want to fight, but it is not afraid to fight.”

Amazingly, U.S. stocks actually went up on Tuesday following these remarks.  Apparently investors think that China’s new “people’s war” is pretty funny.

But they won’t be laughing when China starts playing hardball with us.

For example, how much pressure do you think that President Trump will feel when the Chinese suddenly announce a national boycott of U.S. goods in the middle of Trump’s re-election campaign?

As CNBC has pointed out, China has implemented such boycotts numerous times before…

At the height of the South China Sea conflict in 2016, China administered an unofficial boycott of mangoes and bananas from the Philippines. The region is still in dispute.

Years before that, China boycotted salmon from Norway during a hotly contested human rights issue, and Norway eventually relented.

Five years back, the world’s second largest economy also boycotted Japanese cars and minerals over a territorial dispute in the East China Sea.

In addition, a massive Chinese boycott of South Korean goods in 2017 turned out to be an immense blow to the South Korean economy.

What do you think that it would do to the U.S. economy and to U.S. financial markets if China suddenly did the same thing to us?

It would be absolute chaos, and Trump would feel an unbelievable amount of pressure to cave in because his re-election prospects would be diminishing with each passing day.

This is a strategic advantage that the Chinese have over Trump.  They don’t have to worry about the calendar, but Trump does.

And Trump could not hit back by declaring a national boycott of Chinese goods because he does not have that authority.  He could ask his supporters to conduct such a boycott, and undoubtedly some of them would go along, but most Americans would just continue to shop the way that they are shopping right now.

If large U.S. corporations lose all access to the second largest economy in the world, it would be a complete and utter disaster for them.  As Matt Egan has pointed out, the Chinese market has become “a critical growth engine” for some of the largest U.S. brands…

China’s booming middle class is a critical growth engine for Boeing (BA), Apple, Nike (NKE) and other American brands. China is expected to keep growing in importance as a buyer. And America’s insatiable appetite for cheap goods has created a Chinese factory juggernaut that employs millions of workers.

The world’s two largest economies are each other’s biggest trading partners. Nearly $700 billion in goods were sent between China and the United States in 2018 alone. And with $1.1 trillion of Treasuries, China is America’s largest foreign creditor.

In 2018, Apple reported total revenue of 265.6 billion dollars.

51 billion dollars of that total came from China.

Apple is extremely vulnerable, and so are dozens of other large U.S. corporations.

Out in the middle of the country, many farmers are already almost mad enough to pick up their pitchforks and march on Washington because of this trade war.

As a result of our deteriorating trade relationship, soybean exports from the U.S. to China have fallen from $14 billion in 2016 to $12 billion in 2017 to just 3.1 billion in 2018.

Desperately hoping that things would turn around, U.S. soybean farmers have stockpiled an all-time record of almost 1 billion bushels of soybeans…

Since December, when U.S. and China negotiators called a truce to tariffs and began signaling that an agreement might be reached, soybean farmers had been holding out hope that sales to China would resume, said Todd Hultman, an Omaha-based grain market analyst with agriculture market data provider DTN. In the meantime, the farmers had been storing a record stockpile of nearly 1 billion bushels.

The latest news of a new round of tariffs, with no agreement in sight, spooked the financial markets and some farmers who had been tentatively optimistic.

And now that trade negotiations have completely fallen apart, the price of soybeans is falling like a rock.  In fact, we just saw it hit the lowest level in a decade.

Needless to say, the American Soybean Association is not at all pleased with the latest developments…

In a statement Monday, the American Soybean Association reacted with frustration edged with anxiety.

“The sentiment out in farm country is getting grimmer by the day,” said John Heisdorffer, a soybean farmer in Keota, Iowa, who is chairman of the ASA. “Our patience is waning, our finances are suffering and the stress from months of living with the consequences of these tariffs is mounting.”

Of course soybean farmers are far from alone.  Thousands upon thousands of farmers all over America are on the brink of financial ruin, and one J.P. Morgan analyst is describing it as a “perfect storm” for U.S. farmers…

The state of American agriculture is “rapidly deteriorating” into crisis, J.P. Morgan said Tuesday, due to three factors: declining exports, a poor crop of corn and soybeans and the trade war with China.

“Overall, this is a perfect storm for US farmers,” J.P. Morgan analyst Ann Duignan said in a note to investors.

It is funny how that term keeps popping up.  Without a doubt, a perfect storm is rapidly coming together for the entire U.S. economy, but most Americans are still in denial about what is happening.

As for this “trade dispute”, the truth is that it isn’t going to go away any time soon.

In fact, a senior official in the Trump administration just told Axios that “he can’t see the fight getting resolved before the end of the year”…

A senior administration official said the differences between the two sides are so profound that, based on his read of the situation, he can’t see the fight getting resolved before the end of the year.

The longer this trade war lasts, the more painful it will become for the U.S. economy.

And as we move toward a presidential election year, the Chinese will increasingly be the ones with the strategic leverage.

So Wall Street can laugh for now, but the Chinese are fully convinced that they will be having the last laugh in this matter.

Get Prepared NowAbout the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally-syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other prominent websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please feel free to do so. The more people that see this information the better, and we need to wake more people up while there is still time.

Stocks Crater – 3.5 Trillion Dollars In Global Market Cap Wiped Out – China Considers “Dumping U.S. Treasuries”

Wall Street responded to our escalating trade war with China by throwing a bit of a temper tantrum.  On Monday the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 617 points, and that was the worst day for the Dow since January 3rd.  But things were even worse for the Nasdaq.  It had its worst day since December 4th, and overall the Nasdaq is now down 6.3 percent in just the last six trading sessions.  Of course it isn’t just in the United States that stocks are declining.  Since last Monday, a total of approximately $3.5 trillion in market cap has been wiped out on global stock markets.  And since it doesn’t look like we are going to get any sort of a trade deal any time soon, this could potentially be just the beginning of our problems.

China fired a shot that was heard around the world on Monday when they announced that they would be dramatically raising tariffs on U.S. goods…

China will raise tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. goods in retaliation for the U.S. decision to hike duties on Chinese goods, the Chinese Finance Ministry said Monday.

Beijing will increase tariffs on more than 5,000 products to as high as 25%. Duties on some other goods will increase to 20%. Those rates will rise from either 10% or 5% previously.

According to CNBC, these new tariffs are going to be particularly damaging for U.S. farmers…

The duties in large part target U.S. farmers, who largely supported Trump in 2016 but suffered from previous shots in the Trump administration’s trade war with China. The thousands of products include peanuts, sugar, wheat, chicken and turkey.

When you combine the impact of these Chinese tariffs with the unprecedented flooding that we have seen in the middle of the country, the result is that thousands upon thousands of U.S. farmers are going to be pushed into bankruptcy before the end of 2019.

But China might not stop with just increasing tariffs.  According to Global Times Editor in Chief Hu Xijin, China “may stop purchasing US agricultural products” entirely, and the Chinese are also examining “the possibility of dumping US Treasuries”…

China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries and how to do it specifically.

As I mentioned yesterday, China literally has hundreds of different ways that they can hurt us.

So the truth is that those that are suggesting that the U.S. will not be hurt by this trade war are just being delusional.

In an article that was posted on Monday, CNBC referred to dumping Treasuries as “China’s nuclear option”…

Consider it China’s nuclear option in the trade war with the U.S. — the ability to start dumping its massive pile of Treasury bonds that could trigger a surge in interest rates and substantially damage the American economy.

As the two sides engage in a tit-for-tat tariff exchange, the possibility that China might raise the stakes and stop being the world’s biggest consumer of U.S. debt again reared its imposing head Monday.

The longer this trade war lasts, the angrier the Chinese will become, and the more damage they will inflict upon our economy.

And without a doubt, this trade war could be more than enough to push us into a new recession.  On Monday, Michael Wilson of banking giant Morgan Stanley authored this ominous forecast…

“Given other cost pressures and stubbornly low inflation, we are unconvinced that companies will generally be able to fully offset tariff costs through raising prices or through cost efficiencies elsewhere, meaning tariffs will press on margins,” Wilson wrote. “In the case of 25% tariffs on all of China’s exports to the US, we are inclined to think this has the potential to tip the US economy into recession given the cost issues companies are already dealing with.”

Before I end this article, there are two more points that I would like to make.  Firstly, the price of soybeans is absolutely tanking right now, and this is going to be absolutely catastrophic for soybean farmers…

With the most recent news of the intensifying tensions between the U.S. and China, the price of soybeans has dropped below $8 a bushel for the first time since 2008, which comes as many Midwest farmers are facing rampant flooding on their land during the planting season.

At this point in the year, around 60 to 70 percent of crops should be planted, John Newton, the chief economist of the Farm Bureau, said. Most expect the USDA to soon announce that, because of flooding and other difficulties, American farmers are only 35 percent planted so far.

I put that last paragraph in bold for a reason.  It is the middle of May, and U.S. farmers have only planted about half the crops that they would normally have planted by this time of the year.

That is a national crisis, and it also means that U.S. food production is going to be way down this year.

This is a theme that I have been hammering on over and over again, and hopefully people are getting prepared for much, much higher prices at the grocery store.

Secondly, financial markets got a boost on Monday evening when President Trump indicated that the next “three or four weeks” will determine the success of trade talks with China…

Speaking at a White House event on Monday evening, U.S. President Donald Trump offered a projection about how much longer Washington and Beijing could be locked in heated trade negotiations.

“We’ll let you know in three or four weeks if it’s successful,” he said, according to NBC News.

Trump is expected to meet with the Chinese president some time in June, and the hope that they will be able to work out a deal will probably keep global financial markets from completely tanking in the next few weeks.

Of course there is still likely to be quite a bit of volatility for global stocks in the short-term, but if there is no trade agreement by the end of next month, July could potentially be an absolutely pivotal month for global financial markets.

So stay tuned, because it looks like things could soon be getting very, very interesting…

Get Prepared NowAbout the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally-syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other prominent websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please feel free to do so. The more people that see this information the better, and we need to wake more people up while there is still time.

Economic Doom: China Says That There Will NEVER Be A Trade Deal Until The U.S. Agrees To Their Demands

Unless someone backs down in a major way, this trade war is going to last for a very long time, and the Chinese have made it exceedingly clear that they are never going to back down on the core issues.  So that means that the only way out is for President Trump to back down, and with an election looming in 2020, his advisers are telling him that now is the time to be very tough with China.  Bernie Sanders and other top Democrats have staked out positions that are just as tough on China as Trump is being, and so if Trump backs down now he will be absolutely hammered by the other side for being weak.  But if investors become fully convinced that a protracted trade war is in our future, that could be enough to set off a new financial crisis and throw the global economy into a tailspin.  It definitely looked like we were headed for a major economic downturn anyway, and so this trade crisis could certainly be more than enough to push us over the edge.

In a very rare move, the Chinese have publicly revealed what it is going to take for a trade deal to happen.

According to Vice Premier Liu He, China has three key demands that must be met…

In a wide-ranging interview with Chinese media after talks in Washington ended Friday, Vice Premier Liu He said that in order to reach an agreement the U.S. must remove all extra tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand, and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.

Liu’s three conditions underscore the work still to be done if an accord is to be reached between the world’s two largest economies. President Donald Trump’s administration told China it has a month to seal a trade deal or face tariffs on all its exports to the U.S.

That first demand is definitely “a sticking point” for the Trump administration.

In fact, the Trump administration has been adamant that the removal of current tariffs will not happen until the Chinese show that they are following through on their commitments…

By insisting that it wouldn’t remove any tariffs upon closing a deal, the U.S. gave Beijing little incentive to accept tough conditions. The U.S. position remained firm: no tariff removal until Beijing showed it would carry through on the commitments it made under the deal. On top of that, the U.S. wanted China to pledge not to retaliate if the U.S. were to reimpose tariffs if it found China in violation of some provisions.

In essence, the U.S. wants a trade agreement with very tough enforcement provisions, and the Chinese feel like such an agreement would be a slap in the face.

Responding to these developments, the main government-run newspaper in China struck a defiant tone…

“At no time will China forfeit the country’s respect, and no one should expect China to swallow bitter fruit that harms its core interests,” the People’s Daily, a newspaper controlled by the Chinese ruling Communist Party, said in a commentary on Monday.

And an editorial in the Global Times made it quite clear that China will be willing to fight a trade war if that is what is necessary…

China’s nationalist Global Times tabloid said in an editorial on Monday that the country had no reasons to fear a trade war.

“The perception that China cannot bear it is a fantasy and misjudgment,” the commentary said.

“If they weren’t being seriously provoked, the Chinese people would not favor any trade war. However, once the country is strategically coerced, nothing is unbearable for China in order to safeguard its sovereignty and dignity as well as the long-term development rights of the Chinese people.”

The Editor in Chief at the Global Times, Hu Xijin, insists that the position of the Chinese government will not change no matter how high Trump raises tariffs…

China has made public 3 core concerns that must be addressed & it won’t make concessions on. From perspective of China’s politics, there is little room for compromises. They will insist. This political logic won’t be changed no matter how much additional tariffs the US will impose.

Of course Trump is not exactly being conciliatory either.  For example, check out what he just posted on his Twitter account…

China is DREAMING that Sleepy Joe Biden, or any of the others, gets elected in 2020. They LOVE ripping off America!

It’s true, but that is not the sort of thing that you say if you hope to make a deal.

And earlier, Trump insisted that we “are right where we want to be with China”…

We are right where we want to be with China. Remember, they broke the deal with us & tried to renegotiate. We will be taking in Tens of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China. Buyers of product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal), or buy it from non-Tariffed countries…

….We will then spend (match or better) the money that China may no longer be spending with our Great Patriot Farmers (Agriculture), which is a small percentage of total Tariffs received, and distribute the food to starving people in nations around the world! GREAT!

Without a doubt, previous administrations allowed the Chinese to walk all over us, and we must either stand up for ourselves or we are going to continue to get abused.

As one U.S. official put it, “sometimes you need to say ‘stop screwing me.’”

But now that a trade war has begun, the conflict could get quite dirty.

Most analysts seem to assume that tariffs will be the only weapon of choice, but what if China decides to cut off our access to rare earth elements?  The U.S. rare earth industry is greatly underdeveloped because we assumed that we could always get all that we wanted from China.

Well, if they cut us off we will be in a world of hurt.

And that is just one example.  The Chinese can literally hurt us in hundreds of different ways, and they will not hesitate to exert pressure where needed.

A trade war is going to hurt the U.S., it is going to hurt China, and it is going to hurt everyone else too.  In fact, this could be what triggers the next great economic meltdown.

Doing nothing about China was not an option, because they have been robbing us blind.  But a cataclysmic trade war is not a good option either.

In the end, getting a trade agreement with China that addressed our core concerns without throwing the entire global economic system into chaos would have been preferable.

But that didn’t happen, and now everyone should be bracing for disaster as we enter a very uncertain future.

Get Prepared NowAbout the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally-syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other prominent websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please feel free to do so. The more people that see this information the better, and we need to wake more people up while there is still time.

How The Trade War Is Going To Affect You And Your Family

As expected, trade negotiations with China concluded on Friday with no trade deal in sight.  Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called the negotiations “constructive”, and that helped calm the financial markets, but there really isn’t any reason to be optimistic at this point.  The negotiations that happened this week did not even come close to producing a deal, and neither side is attempting to claim that there will be an agreement in the near future.  Instead, it appears that moves are being made that could lead to a protracted trade war.  In fact, according to Bloomberg the Trump administration has just given the Chinese another ominous deadline…

The U.S. gave its bottom line during the talks in Washington, saying Beijing had three to four weeks more to reach an agreement before the Trump administration enacts additional tariffs on $325 billion of Chinese imports not currently covered by punitive duties, according to two people familiar with the talks.

These tariffs would be in addition to the ones that President Trump just hammered China with.  And Trump is not waiting to see how future talks with China turn out either.  According to a statement from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Trump has already initiated the process for implementing these new tariffs…

In an unexpected Friday development – President Trump began the process of raising tariffs on all remaining imports from China, valued at approximately $300 billion. The move follows a Friday tariff increase on Chinese imports from 10% to 25% effective just after midnight.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer issued a Friday statement – after market hours of course – which reads:

“Earlier today, at the direction of the President, the United States increased the level of tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on approximately $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The President also ordered us to begin the process of raising tariffs on essentially all remaining imports from China, which are valued at approximately $300 billion.”

This is a very clear sign that negotiations with China did not go well.

If they had gone well, Trump would not be threatening China like this.

So it looks like we should all get prepared for an extended trade war, and this trade war is going to affect you and your family in a number of different ways.

First of all, we should all expect significantly higher prices at major retailers…

American retailers and manufacturers were largely able to absorb the 10% tariff — narrowing their profit margins — negotiate offsetting price cuts with Chinese suppliers, import a big stockpile of goods before the tariff took effect, and spread the added cost across many products. But a 25% duty is too much to camouflage with such tactics and a big chunk of it is expected to be passed to U.S. shoppers.

In particular, price increases will be felt most acutely at large retail chains such as Wal-Mart that purchase goods in massive quantities from China.  Needless to say, this will hurt those at the bottom of the economic food chain the most.

Secondly, this trade war will potentially result in a loss of jobs and income for many Americans.  In fact, the Trade Partnership estimates that 2.1 million U.S. jobs will be lost if Trump’s next round of tariffs is imposed…

If Trump slapped a 25% tariff on the remaining $325 billion in goods the U.S. imports from China, it would cost the U.S. 2.1 million jobs and the average family of four more than $2,000 a year, according to the Trade Partnership analysis.

Thirdly, economic growth would definitely be impacted by an extended trade war.  The following bit of analysis comes from CNN…

And then there’s the “extreme scenario” of full-blown, multilateral trade war. In this scenario, Oxford Economics modeled the impact of the U.S. putting 35% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 25% auto tariffs globally, plus 10% blanket tariffs on all other goods imported from the EU, Taiwan and Japan — with all countries retaliating in kind.

The firm calculated this would result in a 2.1% hit to U.S. GDP in 2020, pushing the economy into recession later this year. China’s economy would contract by 2.5%, while Europe and Japan would see average GDP losses of 1.5% and world GDP would be reduced by 1.7%.

Unfortunately, the truth is that the projections from Oxford Economics are way too optimistic.  As I detailed yesterday, our trade war in the 1930s was absolutely catastrophic for the U.S. economy…

On June 17th, 1930 President Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Act which imposed tariffs on more than 20,000 imported goods.

This coincided with the worst economic downturn of the 20th century. U.S. GDP declined 8.5 percent in 1930, 6.4 percent in 1931 and 12.9 percent in 1932.

Fourthly, an extended trade war would mean big trouble for global financial markets.  Over 2 trillion dollars of global stock market wealth has been wiped out so far, but that is nothing compared to what could be coming…

The trade war between the United States and China is back on. So far, markets haven’t sustained huge losses. That will change if tensions continue to escalate.

With higher tariffs coming into effect, the next risk analysts see is a complete breakdown in negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

“If the deal totally falls apart, we think there’s a pretty big chance of a market correction,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial. US stocks could fall as much as 5% over the next month, he added.

But the Trump administration can’t back down now, or else it would lose all credibility.

According to the latest numbers, we bought 539.5 billion dollars worth of goods from China last year but they only purchased 120.3 billion dollars worth of goods from us.  For years they have been slapping enormous tariffs on us, stealing our intellectual property and making it exceedingly difficult for U.S. businesses to do business over there.

Meanwhile, they have been flooding our shores with cheap goods produced by government-subsidized businesses, and they have been getting exceedingly wealthy as a result.

So we can either allow them to keep taking advantage of us, or we can stand up for ourselves.

But let there be no doubt – standing up to China will be extremely painful economically.  And at this stage of our society, Americans are not even equipped to handle a low level of economic pain.

A perfect storm is brewing, and this trade war is just a small part of it.

Sometimes you can try to do the right thing, but it turns out badly anyway.  Standing up to China definitely needs to be done, but it is very difficult to see how this is going to end pleasantly.  In fact, many believe that our relations with China are about to take a major turn for the worse.

We shall see what happens.  As always, let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst.

Get Prepared NowAbout the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally-syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other prominent websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please feel free to do so. The more people that see this information the better, and we need to wake more people up while there is still time.

The Deadline Passes And Trump Brings Down The Tariff Hammer – China Immediately Promises To Retaliate

At 12:01 AM eastern time on Friday, President Trump followed through on his threats and hit China with a massive tariff increase.  As you will see below, China immediately pledged to retaliate.  U.S. and Chinese officials will continue to negotiate throughout the day on Friday, but if U.S. officials were optimistic that a deal was imminent the trigger never would have been pulled on these tariffs.  At this point the gap between the negotiating positions of the two sides is still enormous, and that does not seem likely to change.  The Chinese have been taking advantage of the United States for decades, and they wish to continue doing so.  Meanwhile, President Trump and his advisers are absolutely determined to level the playing field.  Unless one of the parties backs down in a major way, there is not going to be a trade agreement and this trade war is about to get very real, and that is extremely bad news for the global economy.

Just minutes ago, the deadline that the whole world was watching passed, and as expected Trump’s tariffs were imposed.  The following comes from Bloomberg…

The U.S. hiked tariffs on more than $200 billion in goods from China on Friday in the most dramatic step yet of Donald Trump’s push to extract trade concessions, deepening a conflict that has roiled financial markets and cast a shadow over the global economy.

China immediately said in a statement it is forced to retaliate, but didn’t specify how.

On Thursday evening, global markets were tentatively hopeful as U.S. and Chinese officials met to negotiate.  According to White House Deputy Press Secretary Judd Deere, negotiations will continue in the morning…

“This evening, (United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer) and (Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin) met with President Trump to discuss the ongoing trade negotiations with China. The Ambassador and Secretary then had a working dinner with Vice Premier Liu He, and agreed to continue discussions tomorrow morning at USTR,” Judd Deere, White House Deputy Press Secretary, said in a Thursday evening statement.

But the negotiations did not go well enough to even delay the implementation of the tariffs.

Trump followed through on what he promised he would do, and the Chinese say that they have “already prepared a response for all kinds of outcomes”…

At the same time the Chinese side has already prepared a response for all kinds of outcomes, Gao Feng, commerce ministry spokesperson, said in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation. He was speaking at Thursday’s weekly press conference.

It is likely that the Chinese did not immediately respond with new tariffs of their own because they would like to see how negotiations go on Friday.

In the end, the Chinese would love to get Trump to put a hold on tariffs yet again without giving him the trade agreement that he desperately wants.  Throughout this process, the Chinese tactic has been to delay, delay, delay and they will undoubtedly do their best to try to kick the can down the road once again.

But Trump has figured out that they have been trying to run out the clock on his administration, and this time he is putting his foot down.

And without a doubt, it is definitely good to see a presidential administration finally standing up to the Chinese.  They have been ruthlessly taking advantage of us and ripping us off blind for years, and that must stop.

Here is just one example of this that Trump often likes to share…

“When a car is sent to the United States from China, there is a Tariff to be paid of 2 1/2%. When a car is sent to China from the United States, there is a Tariff to be paid of 25%,” Trump tweeted April 9. “Does that sound like free or fair trade. No, it sounds like STUPID TRADE –  going on for years!”

Of course Trump is exactly correct.  It is not “free trade” and it is definitely not “fair trade”.  If they want to impose 25 percent tariffs on our auto industry, they should expect the same treatment for their key industries in return.

All along, Trump has insisted that if China wants to remove all their tariffs that we would be willing to do the same thing, but the Chinese would never agree to do that.

So Trump is standing up to China, and that is a good thing.

Unfortunately, upsetting the status quo will also be exceedingly painful.

A full-blown trade war with China will be really, really bad for the global economy.  If Trump understood how bad things could potentially get, he probably never would have gone down this road, because it is going to be exceedingly difficult to get re-elected if the economy tanks.

I think that a little review of what happened during our last trade war will help us get a little perspective on what could be ahead.

On June 17th, 1930 President Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Act which imposed tariffs on more than 20,000 imported goods.

This coincided with the worst economic downturn of the 20th century.  U.S. GDP declined 8.5 percent in 1930, 6.4 percent in 1931 and 12.9 percent in 1932.

On June 12th, 1934 President Roosevelt signed the Reciprocal Tariff Act which essentially ended the trade war.

So what happened?

The U.S. economy grew 10.8 percent in 1934, 8.9 percent in 1935 and 12.9 percent in 1936.

Today, the global economy is far more interconnected than it was in the 1930s, and so the impact of a global trade war could potentially be much greater.

We need trade with China to be fair and balanced, but are we willing to go through an extraordinary amount of economic pain to get to that end result?

And once relations with China break down, will they ever be able to be repaired?

We are at a critical turning point in U.S. history, and nobody is going to be able to turn back time once the dominoes begin to fall.

In the end, we are all going to have to live with the decisions that the Trump administration is making right now, and so let us hope that wisdom prevails.

Get Prepared NowAbout the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally-syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other prominent websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please feel free to do so. The more people that see this information the better, and we need to wake more people up while there is still time.

Trump Spooks Global Markets: China “Broke The Deal. They Can’t Do That, So They’ll Be Paying.”

It sure looks like nothing can stop the trade war now, and that could potentially be absolutely disastrous for the global economy.  The last major trade war began in 1930, and it turned an economic downturn into the Great Depression of the 1930s.  But without a doubt something needed to be done about China.  They have been lying, cheating and stealing our technology for a very long time, and previous administrations simply allowed them to walk all over us.  President Trump had hoped that a new trade agreement would put trade between our two nations on a fair and equitable course from now on, but at this point it appears that isn’t going to happen.

On Wednesday evening, Trump commented on negotiations during a rally in northern Florida, and he greatly shook up global markets by stating that the Chinese “broke the deal” and that “they’ll be paying”…

Speaking at a rally in Florida, the president attributed his recent threat of increased tariffs to Beijing’s negotiating position.

“By the way, you see the tariffs we’re doing? Because they broke the deal. They broke the deal,” Trump said. “So they’re flying in, the vice premier tomorrow is flying in — good man — but they broke the deal. They can’t do that, so they’ll be paying.”

In other words, Trump fully believes that the tariffs that he threatened China with on Sunday are going to go into effect on Friday.

All over the world stocks immediately began to fall following these comments, and one economist interviewed by CNBC said that Trump “is sure scaring the daylights out of the financial markets”…

Chris Rupkey, managing director and chief financial economist at global financial group MUFG, wrote in a note responding to Trump’s Wednesday evening speech that markets may continue to be roiled by that sort of rhetoric: “We are not sure who the president is addressing tonight in a campaign rally, but he is sure scaring the daylights out of the financial markets.”

For most of the year, global markets had been lifted by hopes of a trade deal, and now that it appears to be dead nobody is quite sure what is going to happen next.

Earlier on Wednesday, in a two part tweet Trump accused China of trying to drag out negotiations until after the 2020 election…

The reason for the China pullback & attempted renegotiation of the Trade Deal is the sincere HOPE that they will be able to “negotiate” with Joe Biden or one of the very weak Democrats, and thereby continue to ripoff the United States (($500 Billion a year)) for years to come….

….Guess what, that’s not going to happen! China has just informed us that they (Vice-Premier) are now coming to the U.S. to make a deal. We’ll see, but I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers…great for U.S., not good for China!

Trump definitely nailed this one.

As I detailed on Monday and Tuesday, the Chinese had been hoping to run out the clock on the Trump administration and deal with whoever follows Trump in the White House.  The mainstream media was absolutely shocked that Trump would say such a thing, but it is the truth.

U.S. negotiators truly believed that they were getting close to a deal in recent weeks, but a diplomatic cable which arrived from China late last Friday changed all that.  The following comes from Reuters…

The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in Washington late on Friday night, with systematic edits to a nearly 150-page draft trade agreement that would blow up months of negotiations between the world’s two largest economies, according to three U.S. government sources and three private sector sources briefed on the talks.

The document was riddled with reversals by China that undermined core U.S. demands, the sources told Reuters.

In essence, the Chinese had totally gutted the deal that the Trump administration had been working so hard on.

So now we know that Trump’s angry tweets on Sunday didn’t just come out of nowhere.  He was greatly upset because “China got greedy”…

One private-sector source briefed on the talks said the last round of negotiations had gone very poorly because “China got greedy.”

“China reneged on a dozen things, if not more … The talks were so bad that the real surprise is that it took Trump until Sunday to blow up,” the source said.

“After 20 years of having their way with the U.S., China still appears to be miscalculating with this administration.”

The only way that a trade deal will be possible now is if somebody backs way down, and that does not seem likely to happen.

In fact, the Chinese are already threatening to implement “necessary countermeasures” once Trump hits them with tariffs on Sunday…

China’s Commerce Ministry said Wednesday that Beijing will retaliate if U.S. tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods are hiked to 25% from 10% as threatened by President Donald Trump on Sunday.

“The escalation of trade friction is not in the interests of the people of the two countries and the people of the world,” the ministry said. “The Chinese side deeply regrets that if the US tariff measures are implemented, China will have to take necessary countermeasures.”

And even if by some miracle a trade agreement happens, the truth is that relations between the U.S. and China have already deteriorated so dramatically that there is no way we will be returning to “business as usual”.  The following comes from a Bloomberg opinion piece…

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been traveling the world warning allies that getting too close to China will harm relations with Washington. Buying telecom equipment from Huawei Technologies Co. would compel the U.S. to curtail intelligence-sharing, Pompeo has said, while participating in Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure bonanza was sanctioning “debt traps” and predatory business practices.

Add in fresh curbs on U.S. visas for Chinese scholars and heightened rhetoric over Beijing’s disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea, and the points of conflict now run well beyond tariffs and soybeans.

No matter what happens over the next few days, relations with China are going to get worse.

A lot worse.

Even though most Americans don’t realize it, this is a major turning point.

Begun, the trade war has, and the pain will ultimately be felt by every man, woman and child on the entire planet.

Get Prepared NowAbout the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally-syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other prominent websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please feel free to do so. The more people that see this information the better, and we need to wake more people up while there is still time.

If The Stock Market Is Falling This Much Already, What Is Going To Happen If There Is No Trade Deal With China By Friday?

If negotiations between the Trump administration and the Chinese government do not produce a trade deal by Friday, it is going to be absolutely catastrophic for Wall Street.  On Tuesday, trade fears pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 473 points.  It was the second-worst trading day of 2019 so far, and at one point during the trading session the Dow had fallen as much as 648 points.  But most of the experts are assuring investors that a trade deal with China will be finalized before Trump’s new tariffs go into effect on Friday.  We are being told that the Chinese will almost certainly cave in on some of their most important demands and that Trump will get the favorable trade deal with China that he has been seeking.

But what if it doesn’t happen after all?

If the Chinese give in now, they will look exceedingly weak, and any trade deal will be hailed as a great victory for the Trump administration.

To me, it seems exceedingly unlikely that the Chinese would want to make any sort of a deal under such circumstances.

The Trump administration has essentially pointed a loaded gun at their heads and has told them that they better agree to a trade deal by Friday or else.

There are some countries with which such an approach would work, but China is definitely not one of them.

And I may not have as much “foreign policy experience” as John Bolton, but even I know that if you want to make a deal with China it is probably not a good idea to antagonize them with warships in the South China Sea at the same time you are trying to negotiate with them.

Perhaps I will be proven wrong, but it seems to me that trying to bully China could backfire spectacularly.

And at this point, the Trump administration better deliver a trade deal with China by Friday, because if they don’t there are going to be very serious consequences.

First of all, once investors realize that a trade deal with China is dead we are going to see a violent downturn in the stock market.  According to one expert quoted by USA Today, “the market could go down another 10% plus”…

“The biggest threat to this market is the U.S.-China trade issues,” Ives said. “If China and the U.S. dig in on trade, it’s time to put on the hard hat because the market could go down another 10% plus.”

And in a CNBC article entitled “WORST CASE SCENARIO: Here’s what it looks like if Trump starts a trade war with China”, a figure of “10%” was also thrown around…

The worst-case outcome there, say experts, is a fight that sends the S&P 500 into a correction — which would be 10% off that key indicator. The companies likely to be hardest hit, say the experts, are likely Boeing, Apple and Caterpillar. They are all down about 5% this week already.

Then the pain ripples into the metals, mining and automobiles sectors.

Unfortunately, a decline of 10 percent is definitely not the “worst case scenario” that we could be facing.

As I have explained repeatedly, stock prices would need to decline by 40 or 50 percent just to get key valuation ratios back to their long-term averages.

And valuation ratios always return to their long-term averages eventually.

At this moment, we are still in the greatest stock market bubble of all time.  Companies that have been losing mountains of money for years are supposedly worth billions of dollars, and it is just a matter of time before this giant charade ends.

Just consider the case of a company called Beyond Meat.  The following comes from Wolf Richter…

Just how silly this market has gotten is exemplified by Beyond Meat, a 10-year old company whose fake burgers – combining the worst of terrible burgers and unrecognizable industrially processed plant substances – have been sold for years, and whose shares following the IPO have skyrocketed to give the company a market capitalization of $4.6 billion though it has persistently lost money on its fake burgers and had sales in 2018 of only $56 million.

It’s apparently easier to sell stocks in this environment than it is to sell fake burgers. So the company is now valued at 83 times revenues. This is nuts.

We are so ripe for a major stock market crash, and a full-blown trade war with China could potentially be the trigger.

In addition, a full-blown trade war with China would be absolutely crippling for companies all across America.  Here is just one example…

Phil Page, the CEO of Missouri-based Cap America, estimates that his company has more than $1 million worth of baseball hats already ordered that will now be hit with the higher tariff.

“It’s very difficult to understand what the President is going to do by a business perspective. To spring it on us all at once like this is a very poor judgment on his part,” Page said.

“I thought this thing was going to be worked out this week,” he added.

Overall, one survey found that approximately 75 percent of all good-producing companies in the entire country would be negatively impacted by tariffs…

About 75% of good-producing firms recently surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said the tariffs have had a negative impact on their business.

Yes, China has been taking unfair advantage of us for a very long time, and this is something that I have written about extensively.

But these things must be handled with great diplomacy.

If there is no trade deal, this could be the moment when our relations with the Chinese enter a tailspin from which they never recover.  A trade war would be extremely destructive for the U.S. economy, and history has shown us that trade wars have a tendency to eventually turn into shooting wars.

We will see what happens the rest of the week.

This is a critical turning point, and the Trump administration cannot afford to fail.

In closing, let me share with you this quote which I found earlier today in a CNBC article…

“To paraphrase Lenin: there are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen…and then there is a single week in the Trump Presidency. What a time to be alive.”

This is a make or break moment for the Trump administration, and it is a make or break moment for the entire U.S. economy.

By Friday, we shall know the outcome.

Get Prepared NowAbout the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally-syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other prominent websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please feel free to do so. The more people that see this information the better, and we need to wake more people up while there is still time.

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