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We live at a time when most people don’t know where their food comes from, and so they have no idea that we are facing an agricultural nightmare in 2026. Yesterday, I published an article about the historic drought that is devastating our heartland and the nightmarish fertilizer crisis that has been caused by the war in the Middle East. Today, I am going to talk about the stunning decline of the U.S. cattle herd, concerns about the winter wheat harvest, and the frightening drop that we have witnessed in Florida orange production.

I have said this before, but I will say it again.

If farmers don’t grow our food, we don’t eat.

When I was growing up, everyone was drinking Florida orange juice.

Sadly, that is no longer true.

This year, the number of oranges that will be harvested in Florida will be down 95 percent from 1996…

But now, the fruit that helped build Florida is disappearing. The orange is falling victim to disease, disasters and development.

Just how far the orange crop has fallen is shocking. Thirty years ago, 225 million boxes of oranges were picked from Florida orange groves. That was almost enough for one box of oranges for every American in the mid-1990s. This year, the forecast from the U.S. Agriculture Department is 12 million boxes. That is a drop of 95% in one generation.

How in the world could this have happened?

Well, the cold weather that Florida experienced during the month of February severely damaged orange production. But the far bigger problem is citrus greening disease. It is not going to go away, and it could potentially completely wipe out Florida’s oranges…

The cold weather in February cost the citrus industry almost $700 million according to a preliminary estimate from the state agricultural commission. Most of the loss is from a smaller crop and damaged trees.

And then there’s the decades-long fight against a small bug that has been turning Florida’s oranges green. Citrus greening disease is caused by a bacterial infection spread by the Asian citrus psyllid. The bug showed up in Florida almost 30 years ago. The first signs of the disease were visible in citrus groves about 20 years ago.

Meanwhile, the multi-year drought that the heartland of America is experiencing is making it very difficult to produce sufficient quantities of hard red winter wheat…

Hard red winter wheat (HRW) futures widened to their largest premium over soft red wheat (SRW) in more than two years as severe drought intensified across key breadbasket regions in the Great Plains and Midwest. This means traders are pricing in weather impacts and tightening expectations for higher-protein wheat supplies.

It is important to note that HRW is a more valuable protein and is primarily used in bread, rolls, and all-purpose flour. It is grown in the U.S. Plains (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas), while SRW is used in cakes, cookies, crackers, and pastries, and is grown in the Eastern U.S. (Ohio Valley, Midwest, Southeast).

Just think about all of the things that you eat on a regular basis that have wheat in them.

If you feel that those products are expensive now, just wait until you see what the prices will be like later this year.

Beef prices have also become very painful, and that is because the size of the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to the lowest level that we have seen since 1951…

The U.S. cattle herd dwindled to its smallest size since 1951, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Friday, signaling that beef prices will stay high for consumers after setting records last year.

The nation had 86.2 million cattle and calves as of Jan. 1, the USDA said in a biannual report, after a persistent drought drove ranchers to slash their herds. That was down 0.4% from a year earlier, when the herd also hit its lowest level since 1951.

In 1951, approximately 154 million people lived in the United States.

Today, approximately 342 million people live in the United States.

So we are trying to feed more than twice as many people with the same amount of cattle that we had in 1951.

Unfortunately, this could be just the beginning of this crisis because the New World screwworm is on a relentless march north…

The flesh-eating parasite, called the New World screwworm, was detected this month in the Mexican state of Nuevo León, just 90 miles away from the U.S. border. As of last year, the insect was still 400 miles away.

“The New World screwworm is not some distant problem,” Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said. “It is a direct and imminent threat to Texas, and we are treating it that way. This is a high-stakes situation for our ranchers, our livestock industry and our food supply, and we are moving aggressively to stay ahead of it.”

Ranchers are frightened out of their minds, because these little parasites love to ravage cattle.

All it takes for disaster to strike is for one female fly to find a body opening or an open wound…

This insect is attracted to the smell of wounds and body openings, including the nose, eyes, ears, mouth and genitals.

Once a female fly makes contact, it can lay 200 to 300 eggs in a wound or opening that can be as small as a tick bite. In some cases, the fly may lay up to 3,000 eggs during its 10 to 30-day lifespan.

The eggs then hatch into maggots that burrow into the wound or opening and feed on the flesh. After about seven days of feeding, the larvae drop to the ground and eventually emerge as adult screwworm flies.

Even without the war in the Middle East, this would be an exceedingly challenging year for our farmers and our ranchers.

But now thanks to the war, we are facing skyrocketing fuel costs and global fertilizer shortages…

Farmers around the world are facing fertilizer shortages and rising costs due to supply disruption caused by the war in Iran, which could make food more expensive later this year.

The war has almost halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage off Iran that handles about a fifth of the world’s oil and nearly a third of global fertilizer trade.

As I discussed yesterday, one survey found that 70 percent of U.S. farmers are admitting that they won’t be able to buy enough fertilizer this year because prices have simply gotten too high.

Diesel prices are spiking as well, and they are only going to go higher as global supplies of fuel get tighter and tighter…

Nobody can dispute any of the facts that I have presented in this article.

Food prices have risen steadily in recent years, but the truth is that what is ahead will be even worse.

In impoverished nations, the number of people experiencing acute hunger was already at an all-time record high before the war with Iran erupted, and now many experts are warning of widespread famines.

But most people out there just expect everything to turn out just fine somehow, because that is how the stories that they watch on television always end.

Of course what we are living through is not a television show.

This is the real world, and in the real world bad decisions can lead to severe consequences.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.  He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

It turns out that the Iranian officials that the U.S. has been negotiating with do not actually have the power to make a peace deal. So this may help to explain why there has been so much confusion. The truth is that the U.S. has been negotiating with the wrong people in Iran this entire time, and the Trump administration is finally starting to realize this. Unfortunately, as you will see below, those that are now in charge in Iran are extreme hardliners. They are not inclined to compromise at all, and that is really bad news for the entire planet, because President Trump is warning that it is “highly unlikely” that the ceasefire will be extended if Iran does not agree to a peace deal by tomorrow night…

Speaking Monday to Bloomberg, President Trump reiterated that the U.S. blockade would not be dropped until a final peace deal with Iran is reached, and he told the news outlet it was “highly unlikely” that he would extend the current ceasefire beyond its expiration on Tuesday night U.S. time if no agreement is nailed down.

As I discussed yesterday, Trump has publicly stated that “the whole country is getting blown up” if Iran does not accept the deal that he has put on the table.

Trump is certainly willing to do more fighting if that is what it takes to reach an acceptable conclusion to this crisis, and he is pledging that he will not make enormous compromises just to get some sort of a deal done…

Only a day after threatening that Iran would be “getting blown up” unless the regime signed a U.S.-backed deal, the president on Monday said he’s in no rush to reach an agreement with Tehran.

“The Democrats are doing everything possible to hurt the very strong position we are in with respect to Iran,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social, noting that Democrats “like to say that I promised 6 weeks to defeat Iran.”

The president insisted that from a military standpoint, it was “far faster” than six weeks to defeat Iran. Still, he said, “I’m not going to let them rush the United States into making a deal that is not as good as it could have been.”

Of course the Iranians are in no mood to do much compromising either, and they have made that abundantly clear.

And it turns out that the people that we have been negotiating with do not actually have the power to agree to a deal.

According to Axios, one U.S. official is admitting that the Trump administration “thought they were negotiating with the right people”, but now they have figured out that wasn’t actually true…

A US official said Washington is uncertain who is in charge in Iran as efforts continue to secure a deal and extend the ceasefire, Axios reported on Monday.

“We aren’t sure who’s in charge and neither do they. That’s going to have work itself out,” it quoted the official as saying.

“We thought they were negotiating with the right people, they had reached the cocktail of what they had agreed to, what could be announced. But what happened is the Iranian team went back and the IRGC and those kinds of people said ‘oh, no, no. You don’t speak for us,’” a second senior administration official said.

“Now they have a real divide over there between these factions and we’re not sure who’s going to win it. We hope the team we negotiated with will.”

Weeks ago, I told my readers that the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ahmad Vahidi, is running the show in Iran.

Now the mainstream media is finally starting to catch up. The following comes from Fox News…

As President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to decide whether to extend a two-week ceasefire between the countries approaches, attention is increasingly turning not to Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, but to a shadowy Revolutionary Guard commander with a long record of terror, repression and hardline ideology.

Ahmad Vahidi, recently elevated to the top of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the elite paramilitary force within Iran’s military, is emerging as one of the most powerful men in Iran and, according to analysts, one of the key figures likely deciding whether Tehran resumes fighting or continues talks.

There isn’t going to be any deal unless Vahidi approves.

Unfortunately, Vahidi is “considered a radical even within the regime’s hardline elite”…

“By any standard, Vahidi is considered a radical even within the regime’s hardline elite, and his rise is a warning that Tehran’s war machine now calls the shots,” Lisa Daftari, foreign policy analyst and journalist, told Fox News Digital.

“Putting someone with such a bloody and murderous record at the top of the Revolutionary Guard Corps confirms that the regime is not moderating under pressure. On the contrary,” Daftari added, “it is doubling down on men whose careers are built on hostage‑taking, assassinations, and domestic repression. By any standard, Vahidi is considered a radical even within the regime’s hardline elite, and his rise is a warning that Tehran’s war machine now calls the shots.”

Vahidi isn’t going to give Trump what he wants.

I suppose the U.S. and Israel could try to take Vahidi out, but the upper ranks of the IRGC are filled with other extremists that are just like Vahidi.

Theoretically, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is supposed to have final decision making power, but it appears that he is either dead or incapacitated.

So the IRGC is in control now, and that is not likely to change any time soon.

I know that a lot of people out there are desperately hoping for a peace deal with Iran.

But it doesn’t appear that one is in the cards.

And if a deal is not made before the deadline, Trump is warning that it will mean “lots of bombs start going off”…

President Donald Trump told PBS News on Monday morning that if the ceasefire with Iran expires Tuesday, “then lots of bombs start going off.”

The statement came during a phone call with White House correspondent Liz Landers focused on the Iran war, as a U.S. delegation is preparing for more peace talks.

The Iranians have been preparing for the next phase of the war too.

They still have thousands upon thousands of missiles and drones at their disposal, and oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Middle East is extremely vulnerable.

Beyond that, I am entirely convinced that the IRGC still has quite a few other ways that they could dramatically escalate the conflict.

So let us hope that some sort of a diplomatic miracle happens, because we are rapidly approaching a point of no return.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.  He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

Apparently the Trump administration was not kidding when it warned that no Iranian ships would be allowed through the blockade. Just a little while ago, Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy has blown an enormous hole in the side of an Iranian cargo vessel that willingly chose to ignore a warning to turn around. Just two days after the completely irrational euphoria that we witnessed on Friday, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is worse than ever, and there is no end in sight.

On Friday, I explained why the extremely positive headlines that we were reading in the western world were dead wrong. When the two week ceasefire with Iran was originally unveiled, the Iranians were supposed to completely open the Strait of Hormuz for that two week period. But they hesitated because fighting was still raging in Lebanon, and the Iranians believed that the fighting in Lebanon was supposed to be part of the ceasefire. When Israel and Hezbollah finally agreed to a ten day ceasefire late last week, the Iranians finally fulfilled their obligation by opening the Strait of Hormuz for the remainder of the ceasefire. But the Iranians also warned that if the U.S. did not respond by lifting the naval blockade for the rest of the ceasefire the Strait of Hormuz would be quickly closed once again, and that is precisely what happened.

Just hours after opening it, the IRGC shut down all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and announced that any attempt to pass through would be “considered cooperation with the enemy, and the violating vessel will be targeted”…

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly issued a sweeping warning to ships in the region on Saturday, saying any movement toward the Strait of Hormuz will be viewed as cooperation with “the enemy.”

“Following the violation of the ceasefire conditions, the American enemy did not lift the naval blockade of Iranian vessels and ports; therefore, from this afternoon, the Strait of Hormuz is closed until this blockade is lifted,” the IRGC said, according to Tehran-based WANA News Agency.

The IRGC also instructed vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman to remain at anchor, warning that any ship approaching the strategic waterway “will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the violating vessel will be targeted.”

Needless to say, the Iranians were not bluffing.

On Saturday, multiple commercial vessels were fired upon…

Gunfire was reported after at least two vessels tried to pass through the waterway on Saturday – with the captain of one tanker claiming his ship was approached by two Iranian gunboats.

US security sources claimed that Iran carried out at least three attacks on ships, Axios reports.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre confirmed a cargo vessel was attacked by a projectile near Oman – damaging containers on board.

The captain of an Indian oil tanker that was completely convinced that he had permission to go through the Strait was desperately asking for permission to turn around once the Iranians started shooting at his ship…

In the radio transmission, the captain of the Sanmar Herald oil tanker addresses ‘Sepah navy,’ which is the name of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy.

Clearly alarmed, he continues: ‘This is Motor Vessel Sanmar Herald. You gave me clearance to go! My name is second on your list.

‘You gave me clearance to go! You a firing now. Let me turn back!’

Marine tracking data shows the Sanmar got part of the way through the Strait before sharply doubling back on itself.

If the Trump administration would have just lifted the blockade for the duration of the ceasefire, a lot of tankers could have potentially gotten through the Strait, and that would have been a huge blessing to everyone.

But instead we are back to square one, and the Iranians are mocking us…

Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, taunted Trump over the closure.

In a post on social media, he said: “We warned you, but you ignored it. Now ENJOY the Strait of Hormuz returning to the status quo.”

This is a very alarming turn of events.

A reporter for CBS News traveled to the Strait of Hormuz to see things for himself, and he encountered dozens of large commercial vessels just sitting still in the water…

We crossed from one Gulf country into another and eventually found ourselves on a coastal road that felt almost too beautiful for the tensions that lay just offshore.

On one side were jagged mountains rising straight out of the earth, completely bare of vegetation. On the other, clear blue water stretched out into the Gulf.

And then, as the road curved, we saw the ships. Not one or two, but dozens. Sitting still. Waiting.

Overall, there are more than 3,000 ships that are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf with no way out.

Of course the Iranians cannot get any ships out either now that a U.S. Navy blockade is in place.

On Sunday, one of our guided missile destroyers blew a giant hole in the side of an Iranian cargo ship named “TOUSKA”…

It took a while for that to sink in when I first came across that post by President Trump.

I could hardly believe what I had just read.

This is a major escalation.

And the U.S. is also threatening to seize Iranian vessels anywhere in the world during the days ahead…

The US military is preparing to board Iran-linked vessels and oil tankers in the coming days, a move that will expand a conflict largely confined to the Strait of Hormuz into a global crackdown.

General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced the escalation on Thursday, according to US officials who spoke with The Wall Street Journal.

Caine said the US ‘will actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran’.

The Trump administration is convinced that this blockade is the key to ending the war.

They believe that the Iranians will be forced to give in eventually.

On the other side, the Iranians are convinced that holding the global economy hostage will force the Trump administration to give in.

Both sides are making tragic miscalculations, and meanwhile the entire world is suffering.

It is spring planting season, and we can’t get fertilizer from the Middle East into the hands of farmers all over the northern hemisphere that desperately need it…

Beginning in the 1960s, in an effort to diversify their economies, the Gulf countries invested heavily in their fertilizer industries, leveraging their abundant natural resources. Foreign fertilizer companies began flocking to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, drawn by low taxes, a favorable geographic location, and the city’s seamless air and sea transport hubs.

The Gulf’s investment in fertilizer paid off, as by 2026, much of the developing world was reliant on Gulf fertilizers. Three of the top ten global urea exporters, the world’s most commonly used nitrogen-based fertilizer, are located within the Persian Gulf. One-third of internationally traded fertilizers and roughly 45% of sulphur exports, a key ingredient in phosphate fertilizers, pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s blockade has brought all of these exports to a near-halt. The timing could hardly be worse, coming during planting season for much of the world.

In addition, nations such as India that normally import large amounts of natural gas from the Middle East in order to make their own fertilizer are being forced to cut back production…

The effects go well beyond halting shipments of fertilizer produced in the Gulf, which is situated at the head of a vast global supply chain. India, itself a big fertilizer producer, has had to scale back production due to fuel shortages linked to the war. New Delhi ordered fertilizer plants to scale back production to 70% capacity to cope with the shortage.

“This is not only an energy shock. It is a systematic shock affecting agrifood systems globally,” Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Máximo Torero, warned on Thursday.

We are facing a global fertilizer crisis that is far beyond anything that we have ever seen before.

Here in the United States, this has come at a time when we are already in the midst of a historic drought…

A massive drought has emerged across large swaths of the US agricultural belt, threatening crops and livestock and eventually affecting food prices, at a time when fertilizer and diesel costs are soaring. As of early April, 60% of the Lower 48 is in drought as the Northern Hemisphere growing season begins and farmers begin plantings, according to NOAA.

The southern US is already experiencing severe, extreme, and even exceptional drought conditions, putting pressure on key crops such as sugarcane, rice, and peanuts, while fruit trees have also been damaged by extreme temperatures.

Food production is going to be way down all over the planet in 2026.

José Andrés is warning that we are headed for “a very big increase in famine across the world by the fall of 2026 and 2027″…

The celebrity chef and humanitarian José Andrés has a warning for the suits in Washington and around the world: stop looking at the oil tickers and start looking at the soil.

The World Central Kitchen (WCK) founder believes that the world is sleepwalking into a massive, multi-year famine, being slow-walked by the “silent” collapse of the global fertilizer trade as a byproduct of the war with Iran.

“I foresee a very big increase in famine across the world by the fall of 2026 and 2027,” Andrés told the Guardian on the sidelines of Semafor’s global economy conference in Washington.

He is right.

If the Strait of Hormuz does not open soon, food shortages will hit the world like a freight train in 6 to 9 months.

But unless consequences are going to hit us immediately, most people in the western world don’t seem to care.

Instead, most of us just continue to go about our lives as if nothing unusual is going on, and for the moment ignorance is bliss.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.  He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

Most people out there still seem to believe that the war in the Middle East will rapidly come to a conclusion and economic conditions will return to normal soon. Meanwhile, the price of physical oil is going absolutely nuts, the price of fertilizer is going absolutely nuts, and we are being warned that a “summer of shortages” is looming on the horizon if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. What we are going to be facing in the months ahead very much depends upon the duration of the war. Unfortunately, as you will see below, it does not appear that a peace deal with Iran is going to happen any time soon.

According to the Daily Mail, citizens of the UK are being warned to brace themselves for a “summer of shortages”…

Brits are being braced for a summer of shortages with warnings that chicken and pork are among a swathe of products at risk from the Iran war.

We have never seen a “summer of shortages” in the western world.

So most of us have no idea what that would look like.

According to the BBC, in a “worst case scenario” there could actually be shortages of chicken and pork in the months ahead…

The UK could face food shortages, including chicken and pork, by the summer if the Iran war continues, in a worst case scenario drawn up by government officials.

A government source told the BBC it was planning for a scenario which would involve the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and breakdowns in the supply of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is used in the slaughter of some animals and in food preservation.

A spokesperson from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs said it would continue to work closely with businesses to tackle the impact of the war.

Hopefully a worst case scenario will not materialize.

But right now the Iranians seem to be in no mood to release the stranglehold that they have on the Strait of Hormuz.

As a result, there could be widespread shortages of jet fuel in Europe in just six weeks…

Europe may have just six weeks left of jet fuel, with serious consequences for the continent’s economy, the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday.

“Several European countries may start to face shortages of jet fuel in the next 6 weeks, depending how much they are able to import from international markets to replace the lost supply from the Middle East, which accounted for 75% of Europe’s net imports of jet fuel previously,” the IEA told CNBC in an emailed statement.

Earlier, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the Strait of Hormuz blockade will result in “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” in an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday.

If you need to fly somewhere, I wouldn’t wait too much longer.

During the months ahead we could also see rationing of fuel and electricity.

In fact, it is being reported that Pakistan is already shutting down electricity generation “for about two hours during the evenings”…

Pakistan will suspend electricity supply for about two hours during the evenings, an effort to manage the cost of power as the Iran war further shakes the energy-poor country, reported Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Demand raises significantly between 5 p.m. and 1 a.m., due in part to reduced hydropower generation, the Pakistani government said in a statement on Wednesday. Potential gaps would have to be met through fossil fuels that have become more expensive after the Iran war disrupted flows plunging the region into an energy crisis.

Some people in Pakistan are claiming that electricity generation is down for much more than just two hours a day.

But those are just anecdotal reports at this point.

Sadly, things will get so much worse if the Strait of Hormuz does not get reopened soon.

Earlier this week, HSBC Group CEO Georges Elhedery made headlines when he discussed the historic crisis that is now upon us.

He is claiming that the highest price that he has seen so far for a barrel of physical oil is 286 dollars…

“What worries me is not the headlines. I mean, oil headline is above $100, $110. Realistically, if you are now trying to get oil from the Middle East, you may be paying $140, $150.

Realistically, if you try to get oil from the Red Sea, you are paying more than $30, $40 for shipping. Insurance costs, which used to be 25 basis points, is more like 5%, and war insurance has been scrapped — you’re paying 5% without even the war insurance component.

So the barrel of oil door to door or the barrel of refined oil door to door is way above the headline price of oil. The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, but the highest I’ve seen is $286 for a barrel of oil that reached Sri Lanka. This is not a country and an economy that can easily afford these kind of prices sustainably.”

I was absolutely stunned when I read that.

I knew that the price of physical oil for immediate delivery had become completely disconnected from oil futures, but I didn’t realize that things were already this bad.

And the price of fertilizer has been rising at an exponential rate in recent weeks…

If you have been keeping up with my recent articles, you already know why that chart is such a big deal.

Needless to say, we desperately need a diplomatic breakthrough.

It would be so wonderful if Iran would just allow traffic to flow through the Strait of Hormuz like it did before.

But the Iranians are insisting that they are in charge of the Strait from now on, and they are demanding that any commercial vessels that they allow to pass through the waterway must pay a very large toll that is to be paid using Iranian banks…

An Iranian parliament official has been cited in newswires as saying the country’s planned Strait of Hormuz toll for ships seeking to pass is to be paid through Iranian banks. Previously it was said to be through cryptocurrency, and could be as a high as $2 million Oil rose higher, given this is another indicator this game of chicken in the narrow waterway could soon lead to fresh hostilities, despite the 2-week ceasefire still being in place, soon to expire.

The Trump administration is hoping to break Iran’s resolve by blockading all Iranian ports.

So far, 13 vessels that attempted to travel to or from Iranian ports have been turned back…

The U.S. Navy has turned back 13 ships since its blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman began more than 24 hours earlier, the Pentagon said Thursday.

President Donald Trump announced the blockade on Sunday after complaining that Tehran has not appeared to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of his conditions for agreeing to the fragile two-week ceasefire that is currently in effect.

The attempt to ratchet pressure on Iran began after an initial round of U.S.-Iran peace talks failed over the weekend.

I don’t think that this blockade is going to force the Iranians to give in.

If that doesn’t work, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is warning that the U.S. military is ready to bomb them into oblivion…

Secretary Hegseth sends a DIRECT MESSAGE to Iran from the Pentagon

“To IRGC leadership, we’re watching you.

Our capabilities are NOT the same, our military and yours.

Remember, this is NOT a fair fight, and we know what military assets you are moving and where you are moving them to.

You are digging out, which is exactly what you’re doing— digging out of bombed out and devastated facilities, and we are only getting stronger.”

“We are locked and loaded on your critical dual-use infrastructure, on your remaining power generation, and your energy industry.

We’d rather not have to do it, we are ready to go at command of our president and the push of a button.”

Unfortunately, Iranian leaders have not been swayed by such threats.

In fact, they do not plan to meet with U.S. negotiators again until the U.S. quits making “excessive demands”…

Right now, the U.S. and Iran are not even in the same universe as far as what a reasonable conclusion to this war would look like.

During the recent peace talks in Pakistan, Vice-President JD Vance delivered the Trump administration’s “final offer” to the Iranians.

Sadly, the Iranians were not interested at all, and they are making all sorts of threats. Here is just one example…

Iran’s Seyed Mohammad Marandi:

“Because of Netanyahu and Trump, Iran is preparing to destroy everything in the Persian Gulf – including all critical infrastructure in the UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Temperatures will rise, the Peninsula will become uninhabitable, and the global economy will crash.”

It appears that a lot more fighting is still ahead.

Of course that means that the Strait of Hormuz will likely be closed for an extended period of time.

So I would encourage you to prepare yourself for a “summer of shortages”, because a “worst case scenario” appears to be the most likely scenario at this stage.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.  He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

We might want to listen to what the farmers are telling us, because if they don’t grow our food we do not eat. Coming into this year, we were already facing the worst farming crisis in America in at least 50 years. Farmers all over the nation are drowning in debt, and farm bankruptcies have been soaring. In all my years, I have never seen America’s farmers so angry, and now the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has made things much worse. Spring planting season is here and there is a global scramble for whatever supplies of nitrogen fertilizer that happen to be available. As a result, prices have skyrocketed and farmers all over the planet are facing some incredibly tough choices.

That is even true here in the United States.

According to a brand new survey that was just conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation, 70 percent of U.S. farmers say that they will not be able to purchase all of the fertilizer that they need in 2026 because it has become so expensive…

Conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation April 3-11, the survey shows 70% of respondents say fertilizer is so expensive that they will not be able to buy all the fertilizer they need.

More than 5,700 farmers, both Farm Bureau members and non-members, from every state and Puerto Rico took the survey. Farm Bureau economists analyzed the results in the latest Market Intel.

The analysis reveals that almost 8 in 10 farmers in the southern U.S. say they can’t afford all needed supplies this year, followed by the Northeast and West at 69% and 66%, respectively, compared to 48% of the farmers in the Midwest.

Fertilizer prices were already at frighteningly high levels even before the war with Iran started, and since that time they have surged dramatically…

Nitrogen fertilizer prices have gone up more than 30 percent since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, according to Market Intel. Combined fuel and fertilizer costs have also risen between 20 and 40 percent, with urea prices jumping 47 percent since late February.

Many people out there don’t seem to understand this yet, but this is going to affect all of us.

If 70 percent of U.S. farmers use less fertilizer this year, those farmers will grow less food.

If there is less food available, prices will go up.

Needless to say, food prices are already at ridiculous levels, but they are going to go even higher.

In impoverished countries, conditions will be even worse.

Due to a historic lack of nitrogen fertilizer, hundreds of millions of families that are currently barely existing “may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food”…

In many parts of the world, vulnerable families who today are currently managing to put some food on the table may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food.

“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest,” said WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau.

I wish that I could get people to understand how serious this is.

Goldman Sachs is publicly admitting that the global fertilizer crisis is spreading a lot faster than they were originally projecting.

We desperately need the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened immediately, but that simply isn’t going to happen.

The Iranians continue to strangle commercial traffic through the Strait, and the U.S. has now “completely” cut off traffic to Iranian ports…

The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is now fully into effect, “completely” cutting off Tehran’s international sea trade that powers about 90% of its economy, the U.S. Central Command said late Tuesday stateside.

The announcement comes at a time when the White House has been signaling a diplomatic solution to the conflict in the Middle East, as discussions around continuing negotiations with Iran are underway.

“A blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented as U.S. forces maintain maritime superiority in the Middle East,” said Brad Cooper, Centcom commander, highlighting that it was achieved under 36 hours of President Donald Trump’s order.

The Trump administration is convinced that this blockade will force the Iranians to give in.

According to U.S. Central Command, the first 48 hours of the blockade have been a resounding success…

But the Iranians are showing no signs of backing down.

On Wednesday, an official with the IRGC warned of severe consequences if the U.S. does not end the blockade…

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced Wednesday that Tehran would not allow the import or export of goods through the Persian Gulf, the nearby Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea unless the United States lifts the blockade it imposed earlier this week around the Strait of Hormuz.

Ali Abdollahi, commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya emergency headquarters, said the measures would be “firm and decisive” steps to protect Iran’s national interests and sovereignty.

According to Abdollahi, if the U.S. continues the blockade Iran has decided that it “will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea”…

In his statement broadcast by Iranian state television, Abdollahi said Iran would move to disrupt shipping routes in the Red Sea and elsewhere if the U.S. continued its blockade, initiated by President Donald Trump.

“The powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea,” the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said.

If Iran is able to successfully stop commercial traffic from traveling through all of those waterways, it will greatly intensify the economic problems that we are starting to witness all over the globe.

In California, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has already almost reached 6 dollars…

Gas prices are soaring across the country, but especially in California. The Golden State average is now nearly $6 per gallon — 40 percent above the national figure. That gap is likely to widen: UC Davis economists estimate that Californians could soon be paying more than $2.50 a gallon above the national average.

In the United Kingdom, officials are bracing for widespread fuel shortages in “two or three weeks”…

Sources told ITV News that the UK is ‘two or three weeks away’ from shortages of diesel and jet fuel, although petrol supplies are healthier.

The Government is said to be facing ‘difficult decisions’ over how to allot fuel supplies, including how to keep ‘ancillary power’ going for NHS hospitals.

If the war with Iran is not resolved quickly, this will only be the tip of the iceberg.

The Iranians are holding the global economy hostage, and they fully realize that this gives them a tremendous amount of leverage.

But there is no way that the U.S. and Israel will ever agree to their demands.

So for now we seem to have an unsolvable problem on our hands, and meanwhile the damage that is being done to the global economy is getting worse with each passing day.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.  He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

The real pain from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t even hit us yet. All over the world, countries are running down their strategic energy reserves, and the last tankers that left the Persian Gulf before the war started will be arriving at their destinations this month. After that, things are going to start getting really crazy unless we get some sort of a miracle and the Strait of Hormuz is quickly reopened. The shortages that we have seen so far are nothing compared to what could be coming, and as you will see below, we are being warned that one of the largest food producing nations on the entire planet may soon be forced to ration fuel.

According to the Washington Post, less than 10 ships a day have been traveling through the Strait of Hormuz…

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained a week after the United States and Iran said they would facilitate vessel passage under a two-week ceasefire agreement. Instead, tensions have escalated. After Iran said ships must coordinate with its forces — and, in some cases, pay a toll — President Donald Trump called the demands “extortion” and announced Sunday that the United States would block ships entering or exiting Iranian ports, adding pressure to an already fragile truce.

But even as Washington seeks to squeeze Iran economically, Tehran retains a powerful advantage: geography. Over six weeks of conflict, Iran has halted virtually all traffic in the strait by laying mines, according to its military forces, and exploiting the vulnerability created by its terrain. Even under a U.S. blockade, these factors allow Iran to continue exerting influence over who crosses — and at what risk.

That risk, more than any formal closure, is what is keeping ships away. According to data from Kpler, only nine vessels have crossed the strait daily on average since the ceasefire, compared with the prewar traffic of more than 130 ships. “De facto, the ceasefire has done absolutely nothing to change the situation [in the strait]. None whatsoever,” said Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime, a container shipping consultancy based in Copenhagen.

Now that the U.S. Navy is conducting a blockade of Iranian ports, no vessels will be traveling to or from Iran, and the level of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will go down even more.

Both sides are expecting the other to give in.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is really suffering.

For example, a lack of fuel has created an unprecedented crisis for the nation of Australia…

In the film Mad Max, an oil shortage leaves Australian society teetering on the brink of total collapse.

In real-life, things aren’t quite that dystopian yet Down Under. But with barely a month of stockpiled diesel left and hundreds of forecourts running dry, the anxiety is palpable.

Australia has one of the highest per-capita rates of diesel consumption in the world but it relies almost entirely on imports to meet that demand. There are two domestic refineries producing petrol but up to 90pc of that is imported, too.

If the conflict in the Middle East is resolved very soon, Australia will come through this okay.

But if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period of time, Australia will find itself in all sorts of trouble, because it only has about a month of fuel left before rationing will become necessary…

The country has 38 days’ worth of petrol left in reserve before reaching critical levels, at which point rationing would need to kick in. For diesel, it’s 31 days and for jet fuel, just 28.

For truckers and farmers in particular, the supply crunch feels near-existential.

Without enough diesel, Australia’s trucking industry will come to a standstill.

Even worse, Australia’s farmers won’t be able to plant their crops if they can’t get the fuel that they need.

And that is really bad news for the entire planet, because Australia is the world’s “fifth-largest producer of wheat and second-largest grower of barley”…

In a country that is the fifth-largest producer of wheat and second-largest grower of barley, McIntyre warns that “most farmers will need to decide before Anzac Day [April 25] whether they will plant a crop this year”.

Mathew Munro, the chief executive of the Australian Trucking Association, sounds equally alarmed. He recently described the situation for the country’s 60,000 trucking businesses as “an emergency”.

Yet again, we see another mention of wheat and barley in the news.

As I have discussed in previous articles, wheat production and barley production are both going to be way down all over the globe in 2026 because we are not getting nitrogen fertilizer from the Middle East into the hands of farmers throughout the northern hemisphere that desperately need it.

Nitrogen fertilizer is the primary reason why we were able to grow the population of the globe to 8 billion people.

And without sufficient quantities of nitrogen fertilizer each growing season, there is no possible way that we will be able to continue to feed 8 billion people.

If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, 6 to 9 months from now we will be facing a global shortage of food of epic proportions.

The Trump administration is convinced that a naval blockade will be so painful that it will force the Iranians to give in.

According to U.S. Central Command, during the first 24 hours “no ships made it past the U.S. blockade”…

No ships will be arriving at Iranian ports, and no ships will be leaving.

This will cut off the flow of oil revenue to the regime, and it will also cause excruciating shortages of gasoline and diesel because Iran does not possess sufficient refining capacity to produce what they need domestically…

Within 10 to 14 days, Iran won’t be able to store oil and will have permanent long term damage to oil wells for extracting oil. Oil wells perform poorly after you stop the flowing process.

Iran exports oil, but it also imports gasoline and diesel. Iran lacks the ability to refine enough of their own oil into gasoline and diesel. So very soon Iran will be running out of fuel everywhere.

Meanwhile, this naval blockade is deeply upsetting the Chinese.

Most people do not realize this, but normally over half of the energy that China uses travels through the Strait of Hormuz…

More than half of China’s energy comes through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

“Such actions will only intensify contradictions, exacerbate tensions, undermine the already fragile ceasefire, and further jeopardize the security of navigation through the strait,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters Tuesday of the U.S. blockade. “This is dangerous and irresponsible behavior.”

For the moment, the Chinese are fine because they were wise enough to stockpile absolutely enormous reserves.

But if we get a few months down the road and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, the Chinese are going to start to panic.

If push comes to shove, I believe that the Chinese Navy would start escorting tankers to ports in Iran.

At that point, the Trump administration would have a major decision to make.

Let’s hope that it never comes to that.

Let’s hope that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved very rapidly.

But at this stage there is no end to this crisis in sight, and that is really bad news for the entire world.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.  He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

Nobody was ready for a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an indefinite period of time. The Iranians think that they will eventually get what they want by holding commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hostage and causing as much pain for the global economy as possible. The Trump administration believes that if Iran’s oil revenue is cut off the regime in Tehran will eventually be forced to give in to their demands. Both sides are engaged in an extremely high stakes game of chicken, and both sides are making tragic miscalculations. There is no way that the world economy is going to be able to handle a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lasts for months. We will see shortages, rationing, panic, riots and market collapses. This is the greatest threat to the world economy that I have seen in my entire lifetime so far, and the truth is that this crisis is just getting started.

On Monday, the Trump administration commenced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the Wall Street Journal, more than 15 U.S. Navy warships are involved…

A U.S. military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was under way on Monday after peace talks broke down, and President Trump warned that any Iranian fast-attack ships that came near the blockade would be destroyed.

More than 15 U.S. warships are in place to support the operation, according to a senior official. An advisory to mariners from U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, which is affiliated with Britain’s Royal Navy, said maritime-access restrictions were being enforced for Iranian ports and coastal areas along the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and parts of the Arabian Sea.

Trump threatened drug-boat-style strikes on Iranian ships, saying in a social-media post that they would be targeted “using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea.”

Iran was only allowing a very limited number of vessels through the Strait in recent weeks.

Now that we also have a U.S. blockade on top of that, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will virtually be entirely shut down.

Shortly after the blockade began, two oil tankers that were heading through the waterway were forced to reverse course…

At least two oil/chemical tankers turned away from the Strait of Hormuz on Monday after the U.S. began its blockade of the waterway.

Rich Starry, a ship laden with oil that had said its destination was China, turned back from the Strait about 20 minutes after the blockade began, according to MarineTraffic, a maritime analytics provider. The ship’s flag was Malawi, which is a landlocked country, so it is a false flag.

Meanwhile, Ostria, a false-flagged Chinese oil/chemical tanker that was partially laden with oil, turned back from the Strait, according to MarineTraffic. The ship is sailing under the flag of Botswana, which is a landlocked African country.

The Chinese warned the Trump administration not to do this.

But the Trump administration did it anyway.

Now the Chinese are furious, and they are warning that there could be consequences…

The tanker U-turns follows unconfirmed reports that China has warned the US not to block/intercept Chinese ships/tankers, or face consequences that could potentially include military provocations.

China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun reportedly sent a message to the Trump administration and the U.S. Navy emphasizing Beijing’s intent to continue operating in the Strait of Hormuz and uphold its agreements with Iran. “Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran. We will respect and honor those agreements and expect others not to interfere in our affairs” adding that “Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and it is open for us.”

I don’t expect a military confrontation between the U.S. and China yet.

The Chinese will probably give diplomacy a chance to work.

But if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period of time, China will eventually do something about it.

As I discussed yesterday, China purchases more natural gas from the Middle East than anyone else.

China also purchases more oil from Saudi Arabia than anyone else.

And approximately 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports go to China.

A lot of people out there simply do not understand that this crisis really could lead to a major showdown with China.

Of course the entire world is going to experience a tremendous amount of pain if this crisis goes on for long enough.

The New York Times is reporting that as oil prices rise “some companies say they are planning for $175 a barrel”…

If no Iranian oil gets through the strait, prices could keep rising over time — some companies say they are planning for $175 a barrel. The Iranians understand the potential political effects of continued inflation in the United States less than seven months before midterm elections.

“Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4 to $5 gas,” Iran’s top negotiator and the speaker of its Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned American consumers after the failure of the talks he led with Mr. Vance.

The Iranians intend to be in control of the Strait of Hormuz both now and in the future.

And they are warning that if the U.S. or anyone else attempts to interfere with their control of the waterway there will be serious consequences…

“Iran, based on clear and logical principles, is responsible for the security and management of the Strait of Hormuz,” Gen. Reza Talaei-Nik, spokesperson for Iran’s Defense Ministry, told the state-owned organization Press TV.

He said Iran “will not allow any interference or aggression by U.S. or other foreign forces” and will not hesitate to respond decisively “to any aggressor, including Israel and the United States, in the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere.”

Now that a U.S. blockade has started, it is probably just a matter of time before more fighting erupts.

There is also a very strong possibility that the Houthis could soon shut down commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait…

Iran could retaliate against a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by directing its Houthi allies to disrupt another critical global shipping route, a senior Middle East analyst warned Sunday.

The Bab al-Mandeb — a narrow chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — carries roughly 12% of global oil shipments and serves as a vital trade corridor between Asia and Europe, making it a strategic target for escalation that could further strain global energy markets.

If that happens, that will make this crisis a whole lot worse.

But even if the war ended tomorrow and commercial traffic in the Middle East was fully reopened, we would still be facing a global energy crisis for an extended period of time because oil production in the region is way down due to all of the damage that has already been inflicted by the conflict…

Crude oil production in the major Gulf Arab exporters plunged in March due to the Iran war, according to data released by OPEC on Monday.

Iraq took the biggest hit with production collapsing 61% from 4.2 million barrels per day in February to 1.6 million bpd in March, according to OPEC’s monthly report. Output plunged 53% in Kuwait and 44% in the United Arab Emirates month over month, the data showed.

Production in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, dropped 23% from 10.1 million bpd to 7.8 million bpd. The Saudis are relying on a crucial East-West pipeline to reroute barrels from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea for export.

We have a real nightmare on our hands.

Next to nothing has been able to get through the Strait of Hormuz for over a month, and a prominent political scientist is warning that we are facing “a system-wide supply shock”…

Global markets could begin running short of “critical goods” within a few days, following the breakdown in peace negotiations between Iran and the U.S. and the now double-edged blockade on the vital Hormuz Strait.

This is according to political scientist and security scholar Robert Pape, who on Sunday warned that the supply chain impacts of the conflict could soon extend far beyond the current pressures on global energy costs.

“Everyone is still talking about oil prices. That’s already outdated,” Pape posted to X on Sunday. “This is no longer a price shock—It is the early stage of a system-wide supply shock.”

He is right, and the damage to global supply chains is only going to get worse with each passing day.

But this crisis is not going to end any time soon, because both sides are waiting for the other to give in…

President Trump’s decision to blockade all Iranian shipments out of or into the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning sets up the next great test in the Iran war: Which side can endure more economic pain, Tehran’s new leadership or Mr. Trump himself?

The Iranians clearly think that they have the upper hand.

But the pain that the U.S. naval blockade is going to cause for their economy will be immense…

The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276M/day in lost exports and disrupt $159M/day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435M/day, or $13B/month.

Over 90% of Iran’s $109.7B in annual trade transits the Persian Gulf. Oil/gas accounts for 80% of government export earnings and 23.7% of GDP. Kharg Island alone generates ~$53B/year, or as I noted to @TIME, “$78 billion a year in energy revenue.

How long can they hold out?

How long can we hold out?

For now, President Trump is insisting that he is willing to go for as long as it takes…

President Donald Trump said Iran is “in very bad shape” and vowed it “will not have a nuclear weapon” as he signaled indifference to renewed negotiations, saying he “doesn’t care” if Tehran returns to talks, while confirming a U.S. blockade of Iranian oil flows set to take effect Monday morning.

Speaking late Sunday after returning to Washington from Florida, Trump underscored his posture following the collapse of U.S.-Iran talks, stating plainly, “I don’t care if they come back or not. If they don’t come back, I’m fine.”

If there is no quick resolution to this crisis, things are going to get really bad.

I am not talking about just a few minor inconveniences.

I am talking about major shortages all over the globe in just a matter of months.

If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for an extended period of time, there will be extreme hunger in impoverished countries.

At this stage, it already appears that we will not be able to salvage the spring planting season in the northern hemisphere.

Farmers that have enough fertilizer will be able to grow their crops normally, but those that don’t will be out of luck.

Most people out there simply do not have a frame of reference for a crisis of this magnitude.

But unless a miracle happens, a few months from now people all over the world will be freaking out about how painful things have become.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.  He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

Where do we go from here? Peace talks with Iran have totally failed, and there appears to be no hope that the gaps between the demands that the U.S. is making and the demands that Iran is making can be bridged. There are several key issues that both sides are not willing to compromise on, and that is going to have very serious implications for the entire planet. In the aftermath of the failed peace talks, Iranian officials warned that the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz would continue. Needless to say, that was completely and totally unacceptable to the Trump administration, and in response President Trump has just announced a full naval blockade of the Strait. What this means is that virtually nothing will get through the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period of time. As a result, the spring planting season in the northern hemisphere will be a total disaster, and global food shortages will hit the world like a freight train about 6 to 9 months from now.

Negotiating teams from the United States and Iran went back and forth for many hours in Pakistan, but ultimately the Iranians were simply not willing to agree to the “final offer” that Vice-President JD Vance set forth…

Vice President JD Vance presented a “final offer” to Iran during negotiations in Islamabad Saturday, outlining six U.S. “red lines,” according to U.S. officials.

The demands included an end all uranium enrichment and to dismantle major nuclear facilities and surrender highly enriched uranium.

The fourth was to accept a broader regional peace and de-escalation framework followed by to stop funding proxy groups including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

The sixth demand was to fully open the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.

So this is it.

Our last best chance for peace just went out the window.

The Iranians feel like they have more leverage than the U.S. does, and following the peace talks they warned that “there will be no change in the situation of the Strait of Hormuz”…

‘Iran is not in a hurry, and until the US agrees to a reasonable deal, there will be no change in the situation of the Strait of Hormuz,’ an unnamed Iranian official told the Fars News Agency.

The Iranians seem to believe that if they can just hold the global economy hostage for long enough, the U.S. will eventually be forced to give in.

Right now, approximately 3,200 ships are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf…

Yet even after a fragile ceasefire took hold, around 3,200 vessels, including 800 tankers and cargo ships, remained stranded west of the strait in the Persian Gulf, according to Windward, a maritime intelligence firm in London.

Iran is allowing a trickle of vessels, so long as they pay a toll and hail from nonhostile nations. Iranian authorities, in effect, are acting like a bouncer at a popular nightclub, permitting some fortunate customers to enter the strait while leaving others to idle in frustration.

“You can think of the Hormuz Strait as a form of flow control. The greatest power actually does not come from total blockade. What Iran is showing is that the real power that it conveys is that you can control who passes and who doesn’t,” said Nicholas Mulder, a sanctions expert and history professor at Cornell University.

Since the war began, it has primarily been vessels from Iran and vessels from nations that are allied with Iran that have been able to travel through the Strait.

But now President Trump is putting an end to that.

Trump just announced that the United States will conduct a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and will intercept any ships that pay tolls to Iran…

This is a big move.

The Iranians have only been allowing a handful of vessels through the Strait each day, and now virtually all of those will be blocked by the U.S. Navy.

In other words, from this point forward traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will almost entirely stop.

This will cut off the flow of oil revenue to the Iranian regime, and Trump seems to believe that this will force them to make a deal.

But I don’t think that it will.

Meanwhile, the Chinese are going to be extremely upset with us, because they normally import a tremendous amount of oil from the Middle East.

In the end, this is not going to work out well for anyone.

It is inevitable that we will see more fighting, and the Iranians are already warning that any military vessels that approach the Strait will be “dealt with strongly”…

Military vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a ceasefire breach and would be dealt with strongly, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy said in a statement on Sunday.

It will be fascinating to watch this showdown play out.

But it will also be horrifying to watch what this showdown is going to do to the global economy.

Physical oil is already selling for more than 140 dollars a barrel, and if it stays at this level the consequences are going to be absolutely devastating…

In the North Sea, the world’s most important physical crude market, traders submitted 40 bids for cargoes last week, only four of which were met by offers. Cargoes for delivery in the coming weeks changed hands at unprecedented prices above $140 a barrel. Elsewhere, refiners have been hunting increasingly further afield for supplies, leading to a series of unusual trades and surging premiums for any oil that’s ready to ship right now.

Traders said the panicky moves across the world’s key physical oil markets demonstrated the scale of the shortfall in crude that’s due to be felt as the loss of supplies from the Middle East leaves a growing gap.

As I have documented in previous articles, shortages have begun to emerge all over the globe, and people are getting really angry.

In Ireland, police are dealing with massive protests that have erupted due to the high price of fuel…

Police removed and arrested protesters on Saturday to reopen Ireland ‘s only oil refinery as a fifth day of disruptive demonstrations over the soaring price of fuel left many gas pumps dry and threatened to cripple transportation across the country.

Trucks and tractors continued to block access to vital fuel depots and a major port, and vehicles clogging traffic led to closures of part of the main highway around Dublin, the capital, as well as sections of other major roadways.

This is just the beginning.

Just wait until you see what happens a few months down the road.

In addition to oil and natural gas, there are a lot of other critical commodities that remain trapped in the Persian Gulf region…

Polyethylene and other kinds of plastics and resins are also greatly affected. More than 40 percent of the world’s polyethylene is exported from the Middle East. And these are used in all stages of production in all sorts of industries—packaging, auto parts, medical equipment, consumer containers, industrial components, electronics, and much, much more.

And there are other often-neglected but extremely important hydrocarbon products being held up, such as petroleum naphtha, which is critical for refining gasoline and producing solvents for cleaning agents and paints. Natural gas condensate is another liquid hydrocarbon used in refining and to dilute other denser hydrocarbons to make them easier to transport. There’s also liquified petroleum gas, or LPG, which is mostly composed of propane and butane. These components are also important for refining as well as residential cooking and heating in many parts of the world. Much of the world’s supply of all these products is produced in the Middle East and exported through the Strait of Hormuz.

Another often-neglected yet critical higher-order good is sulfur. About half the world’s seaborne sulfur trade moves through the Strait. It’s important for refining petroleum and minerals like copper, nickel, and zinc, which are widely used in everything from electronics to medicine.

On top of everything else, approximately one-third of all globally-traded nitrogen fertilizer normally travels through the Strait of Hormuz, and this war is already “causing shortages and price spikes”…

About a third of the world’s fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its effective closure is causing shortages and price spikes for fertilizer during the crucial spring planting season. That has led to fears of elevated food prices and lower crop yields.

Nitrogen fertilizer must be applied within a certain window of time for each crop or it will not work correctly.

Farmers all over the northern hemisphere are freaking out, because the entire spring planting season is at risk…

The fertilizer shortage is putting the livelihood of farmers in developing countries — already troubled by rising temperatures and erratic weather systems — further at risk, and could lead to people everywhere paying more for food.

The poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere rely on fertilizer imports from the Gulf, and the shortage comes just as planting season begins, said Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Program.

Yields for annual crops such as wheat, barley and corn will be severely affected if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened very soon.

But yields for crops that do not have to be planted each year such as olives and grapes will not be significantly affected.

At this moment, we are still eating food that was produced in 2025.

So the consequences of the coming crop shortages will not be felt for a while.

But 6 to 9 months from now, we will be hit by much higher prices for wheat, barley and corn.

Of course many Americans are already experiencing a case of “sticker shock” whenever they go to the grocery store these days…

It’s hard to go anywhere right now without experiencing sticker shock. Price change notifications can feel like little acts of financial violence.

Americans continue to reel from prices that soared during the pandemic, never came back to earth, and keep ticking higher. There’s no doubt that it costs more to feed yourself and cover basics like transportation, housing, and health insurance than it did just a few years ago.

But at least most of us have enough food to eat.

In impoverished nations all over the globe, that is certainly not the case.

The United Nations has been telling us that the number of people in the world that are dealing with “acute hunger” was already at an all-time record high even before this war began.

When food shortages dramatically escalate 6 to 9 months from now, things will get so much worse.

We can see this crisis coming way ahead of time, but there is no way out now.

So I hope that you are ready for the nightmare that is ahead of us.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.  He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.