Money

Shortages And Rationing Loom As Global Oil Reserves Fall At The Fastest Rate In History

May 28, 2026May 28, 2026 by Michael

No matter what happens now, the world is facing a very painful energy crisis. Let’s be as wildly optimistic as we possibly can and assume that Iran agrees to allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz with absolutely no tolls or restrictions starting tomorrow. Before normal traffic through the Strait could resume, Iran would first have to remove all of the mines that they have laid in the Strait, and that could take months. Once all of the mines have been removed, it will take the tankers that are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf weeks to arrive at their destinations. Moving forward, Persian Gulf countries will be exporting much less oil and natural gas for the foreseeable future because of all the oil and natural gas infrastructure that was damaged or destroyed during the war. It will take years before all of that infrastructure is fully repaired and rebuilt. Meanwhile, global supplies of oil and natural gas will be very tight for an extended period of time.

What I have just laid out for you is the best case scenario.

Ultimately, what we end up facing could be so much worse.

Over the past couple of months, global oil reserves have been falling at the fastest rate ever recorded…

Record inventory draw: Global oil stocks have fallen by 246 million barrels in March-April, with draws in May hitting a record 8.7 million barrels per day.

Hormuz closure impact: The Strait of Hormuz shutdown has cut off 25% of the world’s seaborne oil, compounding already low reserves and boosting prices.

US price outlook: Analysts expect U.S. gasoline prices could reach $5 this summer unless flows resume, with relief unlikely before autumn.

Needless to say, this is not sustainable.

Here in the United States, the strategic petroleum reserve has been dropping at a record-breaking pace…

The SPR’s most recent drawdown, covering the week ended May 22, shows a drop of 9.1 million barrels, leaving the reserves at 365 million barrels. The previous weekly drawdown, covering the week of May 15, was its steepest on record — the U.S. withdrew 9.92 million barrels from the SPR then.

Before that record-breaking decline, the largest weekly drop in the SPR’s history occurred in the week ended Oct. 7, 2022, when the reserves dropped by 7.41 million barrels, and was connected to the war in Ukraine.

Commercial oil inventories are being rapidly depleted as well.

At some point the tanks are going to hit minimum operating levels and we are going to have an enormous crisis on our hands.

The chief economist at Capital Economics is projecting that commercial oil inventories “could reach critically low levels by the end of June”…

“At the current pace of drawdown, commercial oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June,” Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note on May 18.

If supply conditions don’t improve soon, “prices could rise sharply,” Shearing warned.

Jeff Currie is warning that Asia is already very close to minimum operating levels, and he is projecting that the U.S. could potentially be dealing with shortages in July…

Oil markets are nearing minimum operating levels in Asia, with Europe likely next and the U.S. potentially facing shortages by July, said veteran market strategist Jeff Currie on Monday, underscoring the global energy shock due to the Iran war.

Headline global inventory figures can be misleading as much of the oil stored worldwide cannot be used immediately, said Currie, Carlyle’s chief strategy officer of energy pathways and co-chairman of Abaxx Markets.

A large portion of that oil is needed to keep pipelines and storage systems running safely, leaving only a smaller share available for the market. Asia is already close to these so-called “minimum operating levels,” Currie told CNBC on the sidelines of the UBS Wealth Conference in Singapore.

This is really happening.

The Australian government is so concerned about what is ahead that they have already prepared a plan to limit the amount of fuel each vehicle can purchase per day when that becomes necessary…

Contained in documents obtained by Guardian Australian under freedom of information, one option the government had at its disposal to arrest a local fuel supply shortage would be to impose a “maximum transaction value per vehicle per day” – a rationing rule which would limit how much fuel a single vehicle can buy at a service station over a 24-hour period.

If the Strait of Hormuz does not get reopened, we could eventually see similar measures get implemented all over the world.

Of course rationing of motor oil has already started…

Nissan is rationing 5W-30 and 0W-20 Nissan Genuine Motor Oils. Starting this week, Nissan’s stock of these oils has dropped by 30% year-on-year. With only 70% left in the tank, the brand is already taking precautions, sending memos to dealers to manage its stock during the shortage.

The brand will prioritize certain owners, such as those claiming “warranty, extended warranty, recall repairs, goodwill, and prepaid maintenance,” according to Kim Less, the vice president of aftersales at Nissan Americas, in the bulletin addressed to Nissan dealers.

“Given these constraints, it is critical to prioritize the use of Nissan Genuine 0W-20 (and 5W-30, where applicable) for warranty, extended warranty, recall repairs, goodwill, and prepaid maintenance,” Kim Less, vice president of aftersales, Nissan Americas, said in the May 15 bulletin to Nissan dealers.

I would encourage my readers to stock up on motor oil while they still can.

Supplies are only going to get tighter from this point forward.

The pharmaceutical industry is also very dependent on raw materials from the Middle East, and one pharmacist is claiming that the current drug shortage is the “worst I’ve ever known”…

Some people living with heart conditions, stroke risks, eye infections and bipolar disorder are among those unable to get the medications they rely on, a pharmacist has said.

Graham Jones, who owns Shrivenham Pharmacy in Oxfordshire, said vital medication like aspirin was harder to obtain because of surging global prices and government funding which was not keeping up with costs.

Jones said the current medication shortage was the “worst I’ve ever known”.

Personally, I am even more concerned about the global fertilizer shortage.

The UN is telling us that we could be facing a worldwide food crisis that could last for “years”…

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks a global food crisis that could extend for years, the UN warned.

Global fertilizer companies have slashed production over shortfalls of sulphur, required to make many farming inputs; about half of the global supply passed through the strait before the Iran war.

As a result, farmers are likely to produce lower yields in coming harvests. Richer economies like those in Europe are mulling building fertilizer stockpiles, reducing duties on imports, and onshoring production, but poorer ones have limited room to adapt.

I want to be very clear about what lies in front of us.

No matter what happens now, there will be shortages and rationing.

It is just a matter of how intense they will be and how long they will last.

Needless to say, the outlook for the global economy in the months ahead is not promising at all.

We really do have a major crisis on our hands, and it will become a historic nightmare if the Strait of Hormuz does not get reopened soon.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing. You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter. Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites. These are such troubled times, and people need hope. John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.” If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

99 Percent Of CEOs Are Planning AI Job Cuts, And The Gap Between The Rich And The Poor Just Continues To Explode

May 27, 2026May 27, 2026 by Michael

Our economy is being transformed at a faster pace than we have ever experienced before. Thanks to giant leaps in the field of artificial intelligence, human labor is not as valuable as it once was. All over the world, millions of human workers are being replaced and that trend is only going to accelerate. For those that have already retired or are on the verge of retirement, this isn’t that big of a deal. But for younger workers, this is absolutely terrifying. There is no loyalty in corporate America today. The moment that AI can do your job more efficiently than you can, you could be out the door. This is already happening at some of the biggest companies in the entire country. Good paying jobs are evaporating all around us, and as a result the gap between the wealthy and the rest of us is absolutely exploding.

I knew that the employment marketplace was changing really fast, but the results of a brand new survey that was just released still completely shocked me.

According to that survey, 99 percent of corporate executives are planning AI-related job cuts within the next 2 years…

A new study from consulting firm Mercer finds that virtually every employer is planning to cut jobs due to the technology (2). The 2026 Global Talent Trends report spoke with 825 C-suite leaders, along with 1,650 HR leaders, and a jaw-dropping 99% of the executives surveyed said they expect AI to lead to at least some headcount reduction in the next two years.

Nearly as many (98%) said they are also planning organization design changes in that same time period.

Meanwhile, just 32% of the CEOs surveyed said they believed the workforce can combine both human and machine worker capabilities in an optimal manner, despite just under two-thirds saying they felt that redesigning work to incorporate automation will drive the greatest return on investment.

If your job does not require much thinking or creativity, your job is potentially in danger.

Just look at what is happening at Meta. 1,400 highly paid workers in Washington state are about to get the axe…

Meta’s artificial intelligence overhaul is now hitting one of the country’s largest tech corridors, with the Facebook parent company preparing to cut nearly 1,400 workers across Washington state.

New filings submitted to Washington state officials show Meta will begin terminating employees in Seattle, Bellevue, Redmond and remote positions starting July 22 as the company restructures operations around AI initiatives.

The filings provide one of the clearest looks yet at how Meta’s broader workforce overhaul is affecting employees on the ground after the company announced plans last week to eliminate roughly 10% of its workforce while shifting thousands of workers into AI-focused roles.

Sadly, it isn’t just workers in Washington state that will be affected by the “artificial intelligence overhaul” that they have planned.

Overall, Meta is letting approximately 8,000 workers go in this latest round of layoffs…

Welcome to another day of corporate America hemorrhaging engineers and other white-collar workers with insurmountable student debt as AI adoption accelerates. This era will likely be remembered in history as the great “white-collar purge,” and the response will be continued hatred of data centers.

We’ve been covering for weeks that today is D-Day for Meta Platforms employees, who have finally learned their employment fate at the company that owns Facebook and Instagram.

Bloomberg reports that the new round of layoffs affects roughly 8,000 roles globally, with engineering and product teams expected to be at the center of the cuts as CEO Mark Zuckerberg reduces labor in favor of GPUs.

In this environment, it doesn’t matter how hard you work or how much you have sacrificed for the company.

If those at the top think that they can make more money by squeezing you out, you will be gone.

PayPal is making plenty of money, but they are apparently looking at cutting one-fifth of their entire workforce…

PayPal is reportedly weighing cuts of up to 20% of its workforce as the payments giant ramps up cost-cutting efforts under new leadership.

The potential layoffs come as PayPal faces mounting pressure on profitability despite continued revenue growth.

Who is going to step up to replace the six figure jobs that are being lost?

Needless to say, the truth is that most of the good jobs that are disappearing are never going to be replaced, and that is just going to make the gap between the rich and the poor even worse.

Today we are living in a K-shaped economy, and even the Federal Reserve is admitting that this has resulted in “a remarkable increase in food insecurity”…

The so-called K-shaped economy is now linked to “a remarkable increase in food insecurity,” according to a new blog post by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Large segments of the population are facing high levels of financial strain, according to a post published on Wednesday, based on data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Among this group, lower- and middle-income households have been hardest hit by prolonged inflation. A greater share of their spending is allocated to goods that have seen prices soar since the pandemic, such as housing, food and utilities, causing them to cut back on groceries, the researchers found.

In this environment, tens of millions of Americans are skipping meals on a regular basis because they simply do not have enough money for groceries.

So if you always have plenty of food to eat, you should count your blessings.

In general, those over the age of 45 are doing fairly well.

But those that are age 45 or younger control just 11 percent of the nation’s wealth…

To paraphrase the late jazzman Mose Allison, young Americans ain’t got nothing in the world these days.

Americans ages 45 and under control only 11% of the nation’s wealth, according to household data from the Federal Reserve.

In other words, nine-tenths of America’s assets belong to the older half of America. People ages 45 and over make up about 42% of the nation’s population, and about 54% of the adults.

I was stunned when I saw those numbers.

There is a reason why Americans have never felt as bad about the U.S. economy as they do right now.

Mass layoffs are being conducted all over the country and the cost of virtually everything just keeps going up.

Thanks to the crisis in the Middle East, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States has now reached $4.46…

Now, gasoline prices are also dragging down the lower prong of the K. The national average gasoline price reached $4.46 a gallon as of Wednesday, up about 40% from a year ago, according to AAA.

If the crisis in the Middle East is not resolved soon, things will get a lot worse.

And that is really bad news for people like 57-year-old Kris Massey that are barely scraping by each month…

Kris Massey stood at a jeweler’s counter last month, hoping to sell a couple of her grandmother’s gifted pieces to possibly cover some bills.

Even though Massey, a 57-year-old nurse practitioner, makes six figures a year, her financial situation has grown untenable. Years of fast-rising prices and a recent monthslong bout of unemployment had taken their toll.

She worked two jobs from 2012 to 2023, but a second job is not an option after an extensive back surgery. Her retirement was drained when she was out of work.

“I’m just trying to hang on,” she told CNN.

Can you imagine selling off your prize possessions just so that you can make it through another month?

This is the reality that we live in now.

For 51-year-old Bill Brantner, any extra spending at all has become a thing of the past…

For Brantner, there’s absolutely no wiggle room now.

There’s no discretionary spending – no movies, no restaurants, no driving around town, no new clothes, no new shoes; his coffee is whatever’s available in the breakroom; his bumper is strapped on with Gorilla Tape.

“If I sign a lease again, and they raise my rent again, I can’t do it; if they raise my insurance premiums again, I can’t do it,” Brantner said. “They have squeezed every drop of blood that there is to be squeezed out of this stone.”

Come next May, if his rent is hiked for a fifth consecutive year, he might have to resort to living in his car outside of Colorado Springs city limits, where sleeping in a vehicle isn’t illegal.

The U.S. economy has been in a state of decline for decades.

For a long time, our leaders tried to hide what was happening, but now the truth is becoming apparent to everyone.

Those at the very top of the economic pyramid are still thriving, but virtually everyone else is really struggling.

The middle class is being systematically dismantled and the ranks of the poor are rapidly growing.

I have been warning about all of this since the early days of the Obama administration, and now a time of reckoning is at hand.

What Do They Have Planned? Scientists Are Projecting That The Population Of The World Could Fall By 50 Percent By 2064

May 26, 2026May 26, 2026 by Michael

The global elite have been warning about overpopulation for a long time. Many of them are convinced that humanity is the greatest environmental threat that our planet faces, and so they believe that dramatically reducing the number of people walking around should be a top priority. A number of very twisted measures have been implemented in an effort to advance that agenda, but the population of the globe has continued to grow. Needless to say, this has greatly frustrated population control advocates. The things that they have been doing are not working fast enough, and there are some that are pushing for more extreme measures.

Getting rid of large numbers of people is not easy, but scientists at the University of Milan are projecting that we could see a massive population shift during the years ahead.

In fact, they are claiming that the population of the world could fall by 50 percent by the year 2064…

Earth’s population currently sits at 8.3 billion people – but it could crash within the next 40 years, experts have warned.

Scientists say that, in a worst–case scenario, humanity could potentially be halved by the year 2064.

Could you imagine 4 billion people being erased from the planet in less than 40 years?

The researchers at the University of Milan are saying that their projections are based on a “deliberately conservative” worst case scenario…

‘Under a deliberately conservative worst–case assumption that Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity suddenly dropped to around two billion people, our model predicts a rapid global population decline, with humanity potentially halving by around the year 2064.’

In order to hit the number that they are talking about, billions of people would have to die.

Just think about that.

Ultimately, these researchers are envisioning a world with a “carrying capacity” of just two billion people…

But in a ‘worst–case illustration’ Earth’s carrying capacity could plummet to just two billion, they warned.

This would mean that the maximum number of people our planet could sustain indefinitely would be around a quarter of its current population.

And, in turn, it would trigger a crash which could see the number of people on Earth halved.

So what are some things that could kill billions of people?

As I detailed extensively in my last book, nuclear war and the nuclear winter that follows could kill billions of people.

Widespread global famines could also achieve that goal, and it appears that widespread global famines are rapidly approaching.

But perhaps the easiest way to kill billions of people would be a global pandemic with a very high death rate.

Right now, Bundibugyo virus is spreading like wildfire in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Unlike other forms of Ebola, there is no cure for Bundibugyo virus.

We are being told that it has a death rate of between 25 and 50 percent, and so once you get it there is a very good chance that you will die.

Some of the symptoms include fever, headache, nausea, abdominal pain, intense weakness, nosebleeds and vomiting blood.

A lot of people that didn’t take this outbreak seriously are starting to pay attention now that two suspected cases have popped up in Italy…

TWO suspected Ebola cases have been detected in northern Italy in the past 24 hours, triggering a health alert.

A man, 31, and a woman, 33, developed a high fever, nausea, vomiting and intestinal problems – symptoms of the deadly virus – after returning from Uganda.

The cases concern a man from Bulgarograsso and a woman from Lurate Caccivio, had spent three months in the East African country working in humanitarian aid.

Other members of their families were travelling with them, but it is still unclear if they are also presenting with any symptoms.

Hopefully authorities in Italy have isolated those two individual in time.

Because it appears that this version of Bundibugyo virus spreads very easily.

At this stage, we are being told that the outbreak in central Africa “is spreading faster than efforts to contain it”…

The deadly outbreak of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda is spreading faster than efforts to contain it, the World Health Organization warned Monday.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said those responding to the epidemic were “playing catch-up” because of delays in detecting cases.

Nobody has any idea how many people are actually infected.

And more people are dropping dead with each passing day.

One official with the International Rescue Committee has ominously declared that “warning signs are flashing red”…

“The initial failure to detect this outbreak has allowed it to spread to several areas of Ituri province in northeast DRC, where the first cases were identified, as well as to North Kivu (just to the south of Ituri) and South Kivu provinces, and now Uganda,” the International Rescue Committee, one of the aid groups on the ground, said in a report published on Tuesday.

With cases reported in key population centers such as Goma, the capital of North Kivu, and Kampala in Uganda, there is a significant risk of onward spread of the disease, the group assessed.

“The warning signs are flashing red,” Bob Kitchen, vice president of emergencies for the group, said in a statement.

Global health authorities are openly admitting that they do not have this outbreak under control.

And it certainly does not help that some victims have been running away from treatment centers…

Health officials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have reported a disturbing new trend of patients fleeing from treatment centers when they come under attack from angry mobs – something that is happening with increasing frequency, as youths in the eastern Congo demand the remains of friends and family be handed over for funerals, in defiance of outbreak protocols.

When victims run back to their family and friends, they are just going to spread the disease to others.

And in some cases, mobs of young people are actually attacking treatment centers…

First on Saturday and again on Sunday, residents of Mongbwalu town in the DRC attacked the Mongbwalu general referral hospital.

Dr Richard Lokodu, medical director of the facility, told Reuters that 18 Ebola patients had fled on Saturday after “unidentified individuals” burned tents, erected by Médecins Sans Frontières, where patients were being isolated.

The hospital came under four waves of attacks on Sunday, he added, by young people mobilised by relatives of a religious leader who died of Ebola. Seven other patients escaped and Congolese police and soldiers had to intervene to restore order.

This is an unmitigated disaster.

Bundibugyo virus is going to spread all over the region, and perhaps that is what was intended.

Can you imagine the panic that we will witness if this horrifying disease starts spreading in the United States?

Authorities have already ordered enhanced screening for anyone entering the U.S. from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda and South Sudan…

Officials in the US said on Friday that people returning to the US from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda and South Sudan would need to fly to one of three US airports for screenings: Washington Dulles International Airport near Washington, DC; Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Georgia; and George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Texas.

Bundibugyo virus is not supposed to transmit easily from person to person.

But this version does.

Healthcare workers that have taken extreme precautions are even catching it.

We could potentially be just weeks away from a major global health scare.

I will be watching this outbreak very closely, and I think that there is a lot more going on behind the scenes than we are being told.

Americans Have Never Felt This Bad About The U.S. Economy In The Entire History Of Our Country

May 25, 2026May 25, 2026 by Michael

For much of the nation, it feels like we are in a permanent economic crisis with no end in sight. I have been documenting our long-term economic decline for years, and now we have reached a point where Americans have literally never felt this bad about the state of the U.S. economy. Considering everything that we have been through over the last several decades, that is saying a lot. So how will the American people be feeling if economic conditions continue to deteriorate? We might want to be thinking about that, because all of the long-term trends are taking us in the wrong direction very rapidly.

The University of Michigan has been tracking consumer sentiment for more than 70 years.

On Friday, we learned that the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded…

American attitudes just hit a milestone of sorts. On Friday, the University of Michigan reported that its index of consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level ever recorded in 70-odd years of surveys.

Sentiment was already low at the start of this year, but it fell sharply after the Iran war began at the end of February and sent gas prices sharply higher.

Until this year, the previous lowest level was in June 2022, when inflation was running at the highest level in decades. Friday’s sentiment reading was 10% below even that number.

“Prices remain extremely high, labor markets have unambiguously weakened in the last four years, and now we’re in the middle of a war,” said Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys for the University of Michigan. “I don’t think the fact that we’re lower than June 2022 should come as a surprise to anyone.”

At this stage, nobody can deny what is happening.

Those at the very top of the economic pyramid are still thriving, but just about everyone else is really hurting.

Since the 1970s, there have been many periods of great economic turmoil, but even during those times Americans felt better about the economy than they do right now…

Indeed, households are feeling worse about their personal finances and the broader state of the economy than they did during the Great Inflation of the 1970s, when the cost of groceries doubled and the government was forced to ration gasoline; the Volcker shock, from 1979 to 1982, when the average interest rate on 30-year mortgages hit 18.6 percent and the country went into devastating back-to-back recessions; the early months of the coronavirus pandemic, when 200,000 firms collapsed, the unemployment rate flirted with 15 percent, and essentials such as infant formula became impossible to find; and the Great Recession, when the stock market lost half its value, the banking system teetered on the brink of implosion, and lenders foreclosed on 6 million homes.

Read that paragraph again and let it really sink in.

Even during our darkest economic moments, Americans always had hope that things would eventually turn around.

Unfortunately, that is no longer true.

According to one financial expert, consumers are now “entrenched in financial stress”…

Americans “are entrenched in financial stress,” Bruce McClary, senior vice president of membership and media relations at NFCC says — the result of elevated prices on top of near-historic highs of consumer debt on credit cards and auto loans.

The nonprofit organization, which provides education and solutions for individuals struggling with their finances, especially debt management, reported a “significant surge” in consumers reaching out for credit counseling, which could be a warning sign for the broader economy, NFCC says. While it’s encouraging to see individuals seeking help before they have run out of options and can’t pay their bills at all, the widespread struggle could be evidence of the overall consumer economy’s health declining, the organization says.

Financial stress has become a permanent part of most of our lives.

Our seemingly endless cost of living crisis is getting even worse, and consumers are drowning in an ocean of debt.

As prices go up and up, our standard of living is steadily going down.

One recent survey asked Americans if they have reduced spending in certain areas or not, and the results were absolutely shocking…

dining out: 54 percent say yes, while 44 percent say no;
entertainment or leisure activities like going to movies, shows, or sporting events: 49 percent say yes, while 47 percent say no;
vacation plans: 48 percent say yes, while 49 percent say no;
grocery shopping: 43 percent say yes, while 56 percent say no;
driving: 36 percent say yes, while 60 percent say no.

When close to half the country is reducing spending in multiple areas, that is really bad news for the economy.

In the past, when the economy has started to waver our politicians in Washington have intervened by borrowing and spending more money.

Borrowing and spending money that we do not have provides a short-term economic boost, but it also creates a long-term economic problem.

Now we are trapped in a nightmarish debt spiral, and so any short-term help that our politicians in Washington will be able to provide moving forward will be very limited…

The national debt held by the public, about $31 trillion, is now the size of the U.S. economy, up from 39 percent of the economy in 2008 and 79 percent in 2019. For most of the country’s history, the fact that the economy’s growth rate surpassed the interest rate on the debt enabled us to keep paying our bills.

But as my colleagues and I show in a policy brief for the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research, the fiscal outlook today is much more challenging. We concluded that the combination of higher deficits and climbing interest rates raises the risk that borrowing will become more expensive and will push government debt levels to climb relentlessly. This is a debt spiral.

The math is simple and unforgiving. Say both your annual income and your debt equal $100. Suppose you face a 2 percent interest rate but you get a 4 percent raise. You’ll have no problem paying your creditor their $2 in interest from your $4 in added income. But if you swap those rates around, every year puts you further in the hole.

It took decades of incredibly bad decisions to get us into this hole.

Sadly, there is no easy way out.

What this means is that a tremendous amount of pain is ahead.

If you think that economic conditions are bad now, just wait until you see what is coming.

We tried to defy the laws of economics for a long time, but now economic reality is catching up with us in a major way.

Everybody Is Talking About The Cost Of Gasoline – Soon Everybody Will Be Talking About The Cost Of Food

May 21, 2026May 21, 2026 by Michael

For most people, the price of gasoline is the most obvious consequence of the war in the Middle East. As I write this article, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States is $4.56. Of course in some parts of the country consumers are paying much more than that. This is a big story, and the truth is that gasoline prices are going to go even higher in the months ahead. But if you think that the price of gasoline is bad, just wait until you see what eventually happens to food prices. The price of diesel has been rising even faster than the price of regular gasoline, and fertilizer prices have been absolutely skyrocketing. Those costs will get passed along to the rest of us. It is just a matter of time. Meanwhile, our farmers are dealing with drought conditions that are unprecedented and now a “Super El Niño” is coming.

What all of this means is that food prices will rise to very painful levels.

So even though everyone is complaining about rising gasoline prices at the moment, one prominent economist is warning that “the next story is food”…

The cost of food in the U.S. appears poised to rise sharply alongside oil prices, as war-related supply disruptions put pressure on the companies and farmers who keep the country’s shelves stocked.

“The big story right now is oil,” economist Justin Wolfers told MS NOW on Tuesday. “The next story is food.”

Oil prices have risen over 50 percent since the conflict began on February 28, pushing gas prices to a nationwide average of over $4.50 for the first time since 2022.

Can you imagine what would happen if food prices were to rise another 50 percent from current levels?

Over the past year, many of the most common items that Americans purchase at the grocery store have already become much more expensive…

When compared to the same time last year, fruits and vegetables have seen some of the biggest price hikes. Tomatoes are 40% more expensive now than they were this time last year. Bad growing weather, tariffs, and rising fuel prices have all contributed to the huge change in tomato prices, reports the New York Times.

Coffee, another imported product, is 19% more expensive than it was last spring.

You’re also likely seeing inflated prices at the butcher counter. Meat is up 9% overall, but beef has grown even more expensive. Ground beef is about 15% pricier, beef roasts are 18% more, and steak is up 16%.

We can blame the war with Iran for the recent price hikes that we have been experiencing, because the war has made diesel much more expensive.

And diesel is used to transport most of what we eat…

What’s contributing to the price spikes? Fuel prices have soared while the Iran war prevents cargo ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global oil supplies. Diesel fuel powers fishing boats, tractors and the trucks that ship 83% of U.S. agricultural products.

Just as you’re paying more at the pump, so are truckers who transport goods all around the country. Some vendors and suppliers are adding fuel surcharges to make up for the increased cost of transporting and delivering their goods.

In addition, fertilizer prices have gone absolutely haywire, and those costs will be passed along to us once harvest season arrives.

The solution to this crisis would be for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.

But Iran isn’t willing to do that.

Instead, Iran intends to make the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz permanent…

Iran and Oman are actively discussing a permanent security mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is pushing to institutionalize and normalize a transit fee or toll on commercial shipping vessels navigating the narrow waterway. According to an Iranian diplomatic envoy, the proposed system is designed to secure the long-term positioning of Iran and Oman as the primary regulators of the strait, effectively transforming a temporary leverage point from the recent military conflict into a permanent sovereign right.

To formalize its grip, Iran’s newly established Persian Gulf Straits Authority began applying conditional rules and hefty transit tolls, in some cases exceeding one million dollars per vessel, while granting selective exemptions to friendly nations like Russia or China. By engaging Oman, which shares territorial jurisdiction over the Strait, Iran is seeking to build a coalition that validates these tolls under the guise of funding localized maritime security.

The US maintains an opposing view on the matter, viewing the permanent toll as a non-negotiable barrier to reaching a sustainable peace deal. Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, international straits are governed by transit passage protocols that guarantee the uninterrupted flow of global commercial shipping, a principle the US insists must be restored without conditions.

This is one of the reasons why there is not going to be an agreement to end the war.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio just warned that what Iran is attempting to do with the Strait of Hormuz “will make a diplomatic deal impossible”…

“A toll collection system in the Strait of Hormuz will make a diplomatic deal impossible.”

“We are very disappointed with NATO allies, we will discuss the issue of troop deployment at the upcoming meeting.”

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, a global inflation crisis is guaranteed.

And on top of everything else, now a “Super El Niño” is rapidly approaching.

We are being warned that it could potentially be the most powerful “Super El Niño” in recorded history…

Scientists have warned that an imminent ‘super El Niño’ could be even more powerful than a previous event which caused over 50 million deaths.

The 1877 El Niño was one of the most severe climate events in recorded history, triggering a global humanitarian disaster known as The Great Famine.

Climate reconstructions suggest water temperatures in a key region of the Pacific Ocean rose by 2.7°C (4.86°F), which caused disruption to rainfall patterns around the world.

If the Super El Niño of 1877-1878 killed 50 million people when the global population was just a fraction of what it is today, what would an even more powerful Super El Niño do?

An associate professor at Washington State University is telling us that “multiyear droughts similar to those in the 1870s could happen again”…

Estimates indicate the resulting scarcity of food and disease outbreaks killed up to four per cent of the Earth’s population at the time.

That would be the equivalent of at least 250 million people if it happened today.

Now, forecasts suggest water temperatures could potentially exceed 3°C (5.4°F) above average later this year – making the upcoming super El Niño even more powerful than the one nearly 150 years ago.

‘Simultaneous multiyear droughts similar to those in the 1870s could happen again,’ Deepti Singh, associate professor at Washington State University, told the Washington Post.

Worldwide food production was already going to be way down this year due to the global fertilizer crisis.

Now an immensely powerful “Super El Niño” is being added to the equation.

What do you think that all of this is going to do to food prices?

Needless to say, the answer is obvious.

We are in far more trouble than most people realize, but for now most of the population just continues to party.

We Are 6 Months From Global Food Shortages Because Farmers Are Facing A Quadruple Whammy Crisis

May 20, 2026May 20, 2026 by Michael

We have never faced anything quite like this. Diesel fuel and fertilizer have become far more expensive as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, and extreme weather is playing havoc with crops all over the planet. Here in the United States, we just experienced the driest first three months of a year in recorded history. No, that isn’t an exaggeration. Now a “Super El Niño” is coming, and that means that drought conditions are going to get even worse in many areas of the world. The “Super El Niño” of 1877-1878 resulted in widespread droughts that killed more than 50 million people, and now we are being warned that the upcoming “Super El Niño” could be even worse. Our farmers have never faced a “perfect storm” of this magnitude, and global food production is going to be way down in the months ahead.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization is publicly warning that a severe global food crisis could strike about 6 months from now if something really dramatic does not happen…

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months unless governments act quickly, the Food and Agriculture Organization warned Wednesday.

Decisions now by farmers and governments on fertilizer use, imports, financing and crop choices will determine whether food prices spike later this year or in early 2027, the agency said.

I don’t know what national governments around the world are supposed to do.

They can’t create fertilizer out of thin air.

Thanks to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, millions of farmers all over the northern hemisphere didn’t get the fertilizer that they needed for the spring planting season.

UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo is telling us that as a result “many places in the world will have problems of food shortage” once harvest season arrives…

Food shortages are expected to hit many parts of the world from September or October following a fertilizer production plunge, the U.N. Development Program’s head said on Monday.

“In September, (or) October, many places in the world will have problems of food shortage,” as agricultural production is expected to be much lower following the fertilizer production slump resulting from high oil prices amid Middle East conflicts, UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo said in an interview in Tokyo.

Even if fertilizer is available, many farmers simply cannot afford it.

In fact, one recent survey discovered that 70 percent of U.S. farmers could not afford to buy all of the fertilizer that they needed for the spring planting season because it has become so expensive.

Meanwhile, diesel has become painfully expensive as well.

Virtually all farm equipment runs on diesel, and as I write this article the average price of a gallon of diesel in the U.S. is sitting at about five and a half dollars.

But in California, the average price of a gallon of diesel has reached nearly seven and a half dollars…

According to AAA, the average price for diesel fuel in California is about $7.43 per gallon, which is $2.36 higher compared to last year. In Fresno, prices are slightly higher.

“In Fresno, you’re paying about $6.06 for a gallon of regular gasoline, but you’re paying $7.48 for a gallon of diesel,” Johnson said.

You may not care about what is happening in California, but you should because California produces more fruit and more vegetables than any other state by a very wide margin.

Drought is another major problem that U.S. farmers are dealing with.

In West Texas, the cracks in the ground caused by endless drought are big enough to swallow an entire human hand…

Scott Irlbeck crouched in a field of stunted wheat plants in a parched stretch of West Texas and slipped his hand into a crack wide enough to swallow it.

Last autumn, Irlbeck planted a crop that barely grew because rain never came. He now hopes his insurance adjuster will declare it a total loss so he will not need to spend money on pricey fuel to harvest it next month.

Coming into this year, the southwestern portion of the nation was experiencing the worst multi-year drought in at least 1,200 years.

And then the first three months of this year were the driest first three months of a year for the entire country ever recorded.

As a result, it is being projected that the winter wheat harvest will be a disaster…

Crop estimates underscore just how bad the situation is. Growers will see their smallest wheat crop in terms of production since 1972, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture; 1.56 billion bushels this year, down 21% from 2025. That’s especially harmful to Kansas, one of the top overall producers of wheat in the U.S.

This year, only 22 million acres of winter wheat will be harvested, and the abandonment rate is above 32 percent…

Only 32.4 million acres (13.1 million hectares) of wheat were planted this year to begin with, and harvested acreage hit just 22 million, marking abandonment, which is when farmers stop tending to a crop before harvesting, at slightly above 32% of this year’s wheat crop, according to USDA estimates.

Just think about those numbers for a moment.

Our farmers simply gave up on nearly a third of this year’s winter wheat crop.

Wow.

Looking ahead, we are being told that the number of acres of wheat that U.S. farmers are planting in the spring will be the fewest “since record keeping began in 1919”…

U.S. growers were poised to plant the fewest acres of wheat since record keeping began in 1919, as high costs for fertilizer, seeds, and equipment have made it difficult to turn a profit.

In 1919, there were 104 million people living in the United States.

Today, there are more than 340 million people living in the United States.

It doesn’t take a math genius to figure out that we are headed for trouble.

And now a “Super El Niño” is looming…

A “Super El Niño” may be on its way and could impact weather in the United States and worldwide for the next several months.

El Niño is described by the National Weather Service (NWS) as “a state where the water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator become abnormally warm.” These warmer waters trigger significant weather pattern changes across the globe.

One expert is warning that there is approximately a 50 percent chance that this “Super El Niño” will be the most powerful ever recorded…

“I would suggest there is roughly a 50 per cent chance of the event becoming the strongest in the historical record right now,” Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, in the US, told BBC Science Focus. “A few weeks ago, I was suggesting maybe 20 per cent.”

In a previous article, I discussed the fact that the “Super El Niño” of 1877-1878 caused widespread global famines that resulted in the deaths of 50 million people.

So how many will die during the “Super El Niño” that will begin later this year?

According to the UN, the number of people around the world there were experiencing acute hunger was already at an all-time record high even before the war with Iran started.

Now global hunger is spiking, and when people get really hungry they get really desperate.

For example, just check out what is going on in Afghanistan…

Khwaja Ahmad barely gets out a few words before he starts sobbing.

“We are starving. My older children died, so I need to work to feed my family. But I’m old, so no one wants to give me work,” he says.

When a local bakery near the square opens up, the owner distributes stale bread among the crowd. Within seconds, the loaves have been pulled apart, half a dozen men clutching onto precious pieces.

This should break your heart.

One extremely hungry man in Afghanistan says that he is willing to sell his own daughters just so that he will have enough money to buy food…

Abdul Rashid Azimi takes us into his home and brings out two of his children – seven-year-old twins Roqia and Rohila. He holds them close, eager to explain why he’s making unbearable choices.

“I’m willing to sell my daughters,” he weeps. “I’m poor, in debt and helpless.

“I come home from work with parched lips, hungry, thirsty, distressed and confused. My children come to me saying ‘Baba, give us some bread’. But what can I give? Where is the work?”

This is what is already happening.

Six months from now, the level of desperation around the world will be so much worse.

We need the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened as soon as possible, but that simply is not going to happen.

The Iranians are never going to give President Trump what he wants, and they are preparing for the next phase of the war…

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf claimed Wednesday that the U.S. is looking to “start a new war,” a report said.

“The enemy’s movements, both overt and clandestine, show that despite economic and political pressure, it has not abandoned its military objectives and is seeking to start a new war,” Ghalibaf said in a statement shared by Iranian media, according to The Times of Israel.

“Close monitoring of the situation in the United States reinforces the possibility that they still hope for the surrender of the Iranian nation,” he reportedly added.

The next chapter of this war is not going to look like the last chapter.

The IRGC is openly telling us that they are ready to attack “in places you cannot even imagine”…

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned on Wednesday that any new attack on the country would provoke them to spread the war beyond the Middle East, raising the stakes of diplomatic efforts to end the conflict.

In a statement reported by Iranian state media, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a powerful military force that answers directly to the country’s supreme leader, said that if “aggression against Iran is repeated,” it would deliver blows “in places you cannot even imagine.”

The Iranians know that they cannot win the war by fighting symmetrically.

So they are going to use asymmetric tools to get the job done.

And some of those asymmetric tools will not be conventional.

When fighting erupts again, I expect things to get really crazy.

What this means is that the Strait of Hormuz is going to remain closed for a long time, and that is really bad news for farmers all over the globe.

Commercial Oil Inventories Are “Depleting Very Fast” And Global Supply Chain Stress Is Spiking

May 19, 2026May 19, 2026 by Michael

We are watching a slow-motion train wreck play out right in front of our eyes, and nobody can stop it. Every single day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, commercial oil inventories will get even lower and national strategic oil reserves will get even lower. Right now the global economy is using more oil than it is producing, and everyone agrees that we are reaching a major crisis point.

Unfortunately, we may arrive at that major crisis point even sooner than many experts were originally projecting.

The head of the International Energy Agency is warning that commercial oil inventories are “depleting very fast”…

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the tally of commercial oil inventories is shrinking at an accelerated pace.

“I think it is depleting very fast,” he told reporters at the sidelines of a meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers in Paris, echoing comments from last week. It will be “several weeks, but we should be aware of the fact that it is declining rapidly,” he said.

He also highlighted that the spike in fertilizer and diesel prices comes at the start of the travel and planting season.

“This could have major implications for the food prices and together with the higher energy prices they might give a big push to inflation numbers,” he said.

Once the cushion that we are running through now is gone, energy prices will go completely nuts and we will see widespread rationing and shortages.

In fact, we are already beginning to experience a shortage of motor oil.

This is something that I wrote about yesterday, and today CNN issued a major report about this…

Wholesale motor oil prices are rising rapidly, and some industry executives are warning of imminent shortages caused by the war with Iran.

Damage to key facilities in the Middle East and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz have combined to create a perfect storm in this tiny but critical corner of the oil market.

The risk is that some of the most popular kinds of motor oil will be in very short supply, forcing drivers to delay getting their oil changed or rely on suboptimal lubricants.

“We’re looking at shortages — I have no doubt in my mind,” Holly Alfano, CEO of the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA), an industry trade group, told CNN. “It’s a big mess — and it’s not going to be resolved quickly. It could take a year or so before we see any real relief.”

We all use motor oil, and so this is going to hurt.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has thrown global supply chains for motor oil into a state of complete and utter chaos…

The motor oil situation is another reminder of the fragile nature of global supply chains.

The problem is that almost half (44%) of the most important base oil used to make motor oil, known as Group III, comes from just three Persian Gulf producers, according to ILMA.

Those Middle East supplies have been derailed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the war started in late February.

Not only that, but Pearl GTL, the world’s largest gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant located in Qatar, was attacked and seriously damaged in Iran. That means one of the leading suppliers of Group III base oils has been knocked offline indefinitely.

Can you imagine paying $200 for an oil change?

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, that is not inconceivable.

Of course countless other supply chains have been severely disrupted as well, and global supply chain stress is absolutely soaring as a result…

One week after Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warned CNBC of a “new wake-up call” for global trade amid the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and a deepening energy crisis that could intensify further in June, UBS analysts are out with a new note telling clients they have “reactivated” their Global Supply Chain Stress Index in response to increasingly alarming signals emerging across global logistics networks.

“Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic,” UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade wrote in a note on Sunday.

Lafourcade explained that global supply chain stress is emerging quickly, with the index rising by 1.2 standard deviations in March and April, the second-largest two-month jump since July 2020.

Slowly but surely, the consequences of this crisis are starting to filter their way through the economy.

For example, more than 5,000 supply chain workers have already been laid off here in the United States…

A sweeping wave of layoffs and facility closures has hit the U.S. supply chain, with more than 5,183 workers affected across at least 20 states.

According to a report from FreightWaves by Noi Mahoney, the cuts stem from shutdowns, restructurings, customer contract losses, and operational consolidations in logistics, manufacturing, and transportation.

Major employers including FreshRealm, GEODIS, Ryder, and DSV have announced significant workforce reductions as companies seek to cut costs amid softening industrial demand.

Authorities have been trying to keep everyone calm.

But investors are starting to get really jittery.

In fact, Treasury bond yields are beginning to rise at a very alarming pace…

What the president hasn’t been able to do, however, is address the worrying rise in Treasury bond yields, which remain elevated heading into the Tuesday session. Benchmark 30-year bonds were trading near the highest levels since 2007 at 5.147%, and 10-year notes traded at a 15-month peak of 4.613%.

That could feed further into inflation pressures, which are already building as the economy holds firm, labor markets outperform, and government spending remains elevated from passage of last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

We desperately need the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened.

But if more fighting with Iran erupts, that is not going to happen for an extended period of time.

On Tuesday, President Trump warned that there will be “another big hit on Iran” if a peace deal is not reached…

President Donald Trump said he was considering “another big hit on Iran” just a day after he said he delayed possible strikes following progress on a possible deal to end the war.

“I hope that we don’t have to do the war. But we may have to give them another big hit,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday. “I’m not sure yet. You’ll know very soon.”

As I have detailed in previous articles, there is no way that the Iranians are going to agree to a deal that is acceptable to Trump.

So more bombing is coming, and Fox News is reporting that Israel is rapidly getting prepared for the next wave of airstrikes…

Israel is preparing to take part in a potential U.S. strike on Iran, despite President Donald Trump’s statement on May 18 that he had paused a planned attack, according to reports.

Citing officials, Israeli broadcaster Channel 12 reported Tuesday that officials also believe Trump’s announcement may have limited his options.

The officials suggested that unless Tehran presents a significantly improved proposal — which Israeli leaders consider unlikely — Trump may decide military action is unavoidable, the report says, according to The Times of Israel.

On Monday night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with top military officials for five hours.

Needless to say, this was not a casual gathering…

Last night’s limited security meeting convened by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lasted nearly five hours – with the IDF chief of staff, air force chief, head of military intelligence, head of the Operations Directorate, and other senior defense officials in attendance – to ensure full preparedness for the possibility of an American strike, the report says.

There is a general consensus among pundits in the western world that the Iranians will eventually back down if they experience enough pressure.

They believe that because they don’t understand the Iranians.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazen Gharibabadi has publicly stated that there are only two options for his nation…

“Iran, united and resolute, is prepared to confront any military aggression,” Gharibabadi wrote on X. “For us, surrender holds no meaning; we either triumph or become martyrs.”

In their eyes, agreeing to Trump’s terms would be surrender.

So that isn’t going to happen.

The Iranians have been feverishly preparing for the next round of the war, and they are warning that they are ready to use “new equipment and new methods”…

Iran’s army warned on Tuesday that it would “open new fronts” if the war resumed. “If the enemy is foolish enough to fall into the Zionist trap again, and launches new aggression against our beloved Iran, we will open new fronts against it, with new equipment and new methods,” said army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia, according to Iran’s ISNA news agency.

They keep issuing veiled threats like this.

I am convinced that what they are hinting at is the use of unconventional weapons.

Of course if Iran crosses that line, the U.S and Israel will likely cross that line as well.

We are so close to an apocalyptic scenario in the Middle East, and most people in the western world have no idea.

Meanwhile, economic conditions are crumbling all around us, and we are going to see some absolutely crazy things happen in the months ahead.

Fact Or Fiction: Is There Going To Be A Motor Oil Shortage In The United States?

May 18, 2026May 18, 2026 by Michael

There have been persistent rumors that industry insiders are bracing for a widespread shortage of motor oil. Are these rumors accurate? I decided that I was going to investigate this and discover the truth. Unfortunately, I have very bad news. Multiple sources within the industry are confirming that we are facing much higher prices and physical shortages of certain products if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon.

I realize that what I have just shared is not welcome news, but it isn’t going to do any good to stick our heads in the sand.

According to Axios, supply chains for lighter-viscosity synthetic oils are particularly vulnerable, and one industry insider is warning that “actual shortages are starting to appear”…

Industry groups and analysts say lighter-viscosity synthetic oils — including 0W-8, 0W-16 and certain 0W-20 grades commonly used in newer vehicles — are most vulnerable to disruption.
“Actual shortages are starting to appear” for some synthetic oil products, Amanda Hay, global lead for base oils at ICIS, told Axios, adding that “security of supply is the chief concern for industry players.”

What we are experiencing now is the leading edge of this crisis.

An internal memo that was apparently meant for AutoZone stores in the Southeast region got leaked to the public, and it is causing a great deal of concern…

Over the past week, reports about looming motor oil shortages have started popping up from multiple directions. The most pointed of them surfaced today, when a person posted what looks like an internal memo to the Southeast region of AutoZone stores.

In the memo, the writer says, “Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category [lubricating fluids] to drop by 40%.” That figure continues to pop up, and it basically means one thing. Oil changes, transmission fluid changes, really anything that lubricates your car is about to get more expensive. We reached out to AutoZone for comment, but haven’t received a reply at the time of writing.

So far, AutoZone has not confirmed or denied that the memo is real or not.

But what local repair shop owners are hearing appears to confirm that big trouble is brewing…

Shops on the ground are already bracing for it. Speaking to a local repair store here in Little Rock, Arkansas, a general manager tells Carscoops that “They are being very secretive about all that. They say the price is for sure gonna go up, but they don’t know how the mainline volume will be affected yet.”

Another shop owner in DC said on Monday that Mobil and Shell informed Costco and Walmart that they’re out of product to ship. Later that same day, he posted what appears to be a bulletin focused on managing supply chain issues. Guidance included partially substituting 0W-8 oil with 0W-16 and then doing the same for 0W-16 with 0W-20. These are just the most recent and easily accessible examples of the current concern.

What I have shared so far is certainly alarming enough.

But now Toyota and Nissan are both openly warning their service departments that shortages are on the way…

Rising fuel prices are not the only petroleum-related problem facing drivers this summer. According to internal service bulletins reportedly tied to Toyota and Nissan, automakers are now preparing for potential shortages of certain motor oils as global supply chain pressure spreads beyond gasoline and diesel.

The issue primarily affects low-viscosity synthetic oils like 0W-8 and 0W-16, which are commonly used in newer hybrid and fuel-efficient engines. These lightweight oils have become increasingly important as automakers chase tighter emissions standards and better fuel economy numbers, especially in hybrid-heavy lineups like Toyota’s.

Toyota is instructing their dealers to temporarily substitute heavier oil grades if necessary…

According to the leaked Toyota bulletin, the company warned service departments that 0W-8 and 0W-16 oils could become difficult to source due to production and logistics constraints affecting the petrochemical industry.

To manage inventories, Toyota reportedly instructed dealers to occasionally substitute heavier oil grades for certain service intervals. The guidance specifically notes that these substitutions are intended only as temporary measures rather than permanent changes to maintenance schedules.

And it is being reported that Nissan is warning their dealers to “expect oil allocations limited to roughly 55% of prior-year supply levels”…

Nissan’s draft bulletin reportedly warned dealers to expect oil allocations limited to roughly 55% of prior-year supply levels. The company later confirmed the authenticity of the document, although it stated the memo itself had not yet been officially distributed across the dealer network.

The shortage concerns are not isolated to one automaker, either. Nissan’s customer communication draft specifically stated the supply issue is affecting the entire automotive industry rather than only Nissan-branded service departments.

Clearly, there is widespread expectation that at least certain types of motor oil will be in short supply throughout the rest of this year.

So I would encourage you to stock up while you still can.

Meanwhile, the largest budget airline in Europe is bracing for an “Armageddon situation” due to a looming shortage of jet fuel…

Europe’s biggest budget airline has warned weaker carriers could collapse under soaring jet fuel costs as the industry braces for what one executive described as a possible ‘Armageddon situation’.

Ryanair finance chief Neil Sorahan said the airline has contingency plans in place as fears grow over fuel shortages and surging oil prices linked to instability in the Middle East and disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

‘Do we have plans for some kind of Armageddon situation? Of course we do,’ Sorahan told CNBC.

I don’t think that this will be a major problem in the United States yet.

Asia and Europe will be the first to experience a serious lack of jet fuel.

But one thing we are already experiencing in the United States is much higher gasoline prices…

US gas prices have gone up, and up, and up since the country bombed Iran in late February. In March, I reported that the average price of gas in the country had gone up from $2.89/gallon to $3.48/gallon. Now, the average price of gas in the US is $4.517/gallon. That’s a 56% increase in the price of gasoline since the US bombed Iran!

Read the last sentence of that quote again.

A 56 percent increase in just a matter of weeks is insane.

Sadly, things will only get worse if the fighting in the Middle East resumes.

Retired Army General Jack Keane has close ties to the Trump administration, and he just told Fox News that “we’re on the cusp of going back into military operations”…

“Where are we? The president has exhibited a huge amount of patience here since the ceasefire on April the 8th. And we’ve tried to work a deal with these guys, and it just doesn’t seem possible. And where we are, we’re on the cusp of going back into military operations. When we stopped. Bill and Dana, we had two weeks to go, a little less than 30% of the targets. Those targets remain, but we have better intelligence now, after these five, six weeks. So that target list is expanded. It’s considerably more comprehensive,” he continued. “It’ll be a combined operation with the United States and Israel going full throttle, all out, no half measures here whatsoever. And when those target lists are complete and they will consist of the rest of the weapons that are remaining, to indicate some of what you just mentioned, to include what remains of nuclear, and also all the organizations that sustain the regime. We have better intelligence on locations and other things associated with that, and certainly they’re going to be a comprehensive target list in of itself, and then a grouping of targets that really deal with all of Iran’s revenue sources to force an economic collapse of the regime. Obviously, Kharg Island blockade is having significant impact. But this attack will even further aggravate their ability to gain revenue source. Without revenue, it’s hard to see how this regime can survive. So we put it on a path.”

I believe that General Keane is correct.

I believe that we are right on the brink of more fighting.

On Sunday, President Trump reportedly met with his national security team in the White House Situation Room…

Axios’s Barak Ravid broke the news amid a flurry of new speculation that President Donald Trump will likely move toward resumed military operations against Iran this week if the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit hub, is not swiftly reopened.

“U.S. officials say President Trump wants a deal to end the war, but is considering resuming it due to Iran’s rejection of many of his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program,” Ravid reported, citing U.S. officials.

Trump warned on Sunday that “the clock is ticking” for Iran to make a deal and threatened “there won’t be anything left of them” if they don’t do so “FAST.” Axios also broke the news on Sunday that Trump will meet with his top national security officials in the White House Situation Room to discuss the next steps in possibly resuming the war. Ravid added in his report: “The senior U.S. official said that if Iran doesn’t shift its position, the U.S. will have to continue the negotiations ‘through bombs.’”

Also on Sunday, Trump posted the following map on his Truth Social account…

What are Iranian leaders thinking when they see something like that?

If there was any hope left for a peace agreement, Trump should not be posting an image that suggests that Iran is about to be attacked from all sides.

On Monday, Trump posted a message on his Truth Social account which openly admitted that he had been planning to order an attack on Iran on Tuesday…

Of course the truth is that there isn’t going to be a deal.

The Iranians are not even willing to talk about their nuclear program at this point, and they are insisting that the U.S. agree to five key demands before they will even sit back down at the table…

Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon
Lifting all sanctions
Releasing frozen Iranian assets
Compensation for war damages and losses
Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz

President Trump will never agree to these demands.

And the Iranians will never give President Trump what he wants.

So it appears to be inevitable that more military conflict is coming, and the Iranians are warning that they have new “surprises” in store for us…

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Monday that Tehran is continuing to “pursue diplomacy with seriousness,” but that the Islamic Republic “will not be subdued by contradictory behavior and threats from the opposing side.”

“We are fully prepared for every scenario,” he said, warning that, “in the event of any reckless action we will respond with full strength, and I assure you that our armed forces will definitely have new ‘surprises’ for the enemy.”

The bottom line is that the Strait of Hormuz is not going to be reopened any time soon.

So there will be rationing and there will be shortages.

And the entire global economy is entering a major downturn.

We really are facing a nightmare scenario, and most of the general population still has no clue.

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